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Messages - Jim Hunt

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 5
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 28, 2020, 11:46:16 AM »
The extra volume this year is in the Barents (and the Kara)

I've done my due diligence this morning (UTC), and there's still a total absence of any ice >= 4m thick to be seen on the most recent CS2/SMOS reanalysis. Chapter and verse over at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/

including this (hopefully?) explanatory video:



Quote
Not unexpectedly that meant that ice in the northern Barents Sea was slow to melt out in the summer of 2019, whilst after a fast start the melt in the Beaufort Sea suffered a “brief hiatus” in June before ultimately melting out almost completely.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 28, 2020, 01:33:12 AM »
In the absence of the mid January PIOMAS update I'm being moaned at over at "Climate Etc.".

Hence please feel free to compare and contrast:

3
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 27, 2020, 01:28:16 AM »
According to the Grauniad this evening (UTC):

Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn

Quote
About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.

Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

“Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”

Although no one has yet tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, Labour called on the government to reassure the public that the NHS could cope with an outbreak when it is already struggling with the winter flu season.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said: “The NHS is currently under immense strain this winter with staff already working flat out and hospitals overcrowded. We need urgent reassurance from ministers they have a plan to ensure we have capacity in place to deal with coronavirus should we need to.”

Priti Patel, the home secretary, insisted on Sunday that the government was taking “all precautions”, despite criticism it had been slow off the mark to find and give information to the thousands of people in Britain who had flown back from Wuhan in recent weeks.

Prof Martin Dove, a British academic, said no one from the UK government had tried to contact him regarding the coronavirus outbreak despite recently returning home from working in Wuhan.

4
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 26, 2020, 09:40:43 PM »
Via Svein Tveitdal on Twitter:


5
Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: January 26, 2020, 11:46:13 AM »
look at the data below

Here's a link to the data you refer to:

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

Click the map at the bottom for updates.

Quote
We developed an online dashboard (static snapshot shown below) to visualize and track the reported cases on a daily timescale; the complete set of data is downloadable as a google sheet.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:06:32 PM »
Nice to see you around, Jim! :)

Likewise BK!

Whilst I'm here perhaps I might repost this A-Team animation from the MOSAiC thread?



Quote
The overall motion of the icepack over the last three weeks is better described as a 'Siberian Slam' against the CAA than TransPolar Drift. Note the boundary between FYI and MYI remains quite distinct and easy to track.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 25, 2020, 06:42:41 PM »
An interesting new paper concerning the Arctic surface energy balance from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah:

Midwinter Arctic leads form and dissipate low clouds

Also here's an introductory overview:

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-arctic-sea-ice-clouds.html

Quote
In the wintertime Arctic, cracks in the ice called "leads" expose the warm ocean directly to the cold air, with some leads only a few meters wide and some kilometers wide. They play a critical role in the Arctic surface energy balance. If we want to know how much the ice is going to grow in winter, we need to understand the impacts of leads.

The extreme contrast in temperature between the warm ocean and the cold air creates a flow of heat and moisture from the ocean to the atmosphere. This flow provides a lead with its own weather system which creates low-level clouds. The prevailing view has been that more leads are associated with more low-level clouds during winter. But University of Utah atmospheric scientists noticed something strange in their study of these leads: when lead occurrence was greater, there were fewer, not more clouds.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: December 09, 2019, 09:02:52 PM »
The Kapitan Dranitsyn..... last reported on Dec-03 at 11:30 UTC.

CruiseMapper reveals the current position of Kapitan Dranitsyn and numerous other icebreakers:

https://www.cruisemapper.com/?imo=7824405

No history seems to be available however.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 19, 2019, 01:37:47 PM »
Stick a stake through their hearts, and just like Dracula, they will be back in yet another "Hammer Horror" movie before the blood on the stake is dry.

Which goes some way to supporting our initial hypothesis?

https://www.researchgate.net/project/Social-and-Political-Psychology-of-the-Ship-of-Fools-meme

Here's the next episode of the Hammer house of horror show:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/watts-up-with-arctic-sea-ice-thickness/#comment-294855

Quote
David Middleton is now regurgitating the old Skate/Seadragon surfacing at the North Pole stuff.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: October 18, 2019, 04:48:19 PM »
Matt Ridley was on Julia Hartley-Brewer's "chat show" earlier. Apart from accusing Extinction Rebellion of "hypocrisy" Matt was rather economical with the truth about Arctic temperatures and sea ice. At the end of the video he exhorted Julia's loyal viewers to "stand up to the bullies". I think he was referring to XR, but I took him at his word and stood up to the purveyors of porkie pies at Watts Up With That in no uncertain terms:
 
https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1185157156313677824

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route - Days Open
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:03:36 AM »
I reckon the Vilkitsky Strait is now just about closed to "private vessels" at the very least:

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: October 17, 2019, 01:55:12 PM »

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: October 16, 2019, 02:54:58 PM »
The CryoSat-2 image is from the laser thingy?

IceSat-2 is "the laser thingy". CryoSat-2 is the "interferometric radar range-finder thingy":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CryoSat-2

It's a "measurement" of sorts, but still has to make assumptions about snow thickness to turn freeboard measurements into sea ice thickness numbers.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2019, 12:35:19 PM »
The Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring have just published the first CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map of the 2019/20 freezing season:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/#Oct-16

Quote
Note in particular the dark blue area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 14, 2019, 01:40:22 PM »
A recent "tweet" from Prof. Richard Pancost, Head of the School of Earth Sciences at Bristol University and Emeritus Director of the Cabot Institute:

https://twitter.com/rpancost/status/1183347552822976513

Quote
Proud to be a signatory to this. Some aspects of XR must improve - including its diversity and inclusion. But there is no doubt that the Climate Emergency demands radical action. And protests are essential to achieving that.

According to Reuters:

Quote
In a joint declaration, climate scientists, physicists, biologists, engineers and others from at least 20 countries broke with the caution traditionally associated with academia to side with peaceful protesters courting arrest from Amsterdam to Melbourne.


16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: October 07, 2019, 11:42:58 AM »
It's all go on the Arctic Sea Ice Con front at the moment!

No sooner have some people said some nice things about me on Judy Curry's blog than me old mates David Rose and Matt Ridley are out in force dissing Tamsin Edwards on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1181138013646213120

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 06, 2019, 02:37:32 PM »
Hurricane Lorenzo to Bring 70-Foot Waves to Azores.

Britain's Met Office said Lorenzo would bring very strong winds and heavy rains to western areas of the U.K. on Thursday and Friday.

Fortunately inside some shelter the waves were a lot smaller than that in the U.K. yesterday!

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 11:32:31 AM »
Finally a linear trend. The 2019 data point lies near perfect on the trend line.

The 'prediction' for 2019 is spot-on.

Thanks for all the assorted "extrapolations" Wipneus.

Please bear in mind that in conformance with what appears to be standard practice at ex Prof. Judy's my graph was for the PIOMAS monthly volume numbers for September, not the September daily minimum volume.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 09:02:00 AM »
The trendline on this chart is obviously faulty.

Did I mention that "I’m currently involved is a heated “debate” about Arctic sea ice trends over at ex Prof. Judy’s"?

The displayed linear trend was created using the Excel "TREND" function. Surely you don't want to start a "debate" with Microsoft too?


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: October 06, 2019, 12:39:44 AM »
Meanwhile here's a very crude initial version of the GWC winter 2019/20 Ice Mass Balance buoy page:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-2019-20-imb-buoys/#MOSAiC-1

Now including MOSAiC IMB buoy #1:

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 11:30:56 AM »
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow

You'll have to do a lot more than that to "take over A-Team's position on this venerable board"!

By way of example please see:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg231704.html#msg231704

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 29, 2019, 09:02:13 PM »
Are there any volunteers for documenting actual temps

I'm afraid I'm anxiously awaiting IMB buoy deployment.

23
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: September 26, 2019, 10:41:26 AM »
Meanwhile back in the Palace of Westminster, more grist for our research mill. Has BoJo been reading the Trumpism playbook carefully, or is he just monumentally out of touch with reality?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-49836681

Quote
The prime minister's remark in relation to murdered MP Jo Cox has left a former Conservative Welsh secretary "shocked".

MP Stephen Crabb said Boris Johnson had "a duty to reduce the level of poison in our politics".

The prime minister angered many MPs by using words such as "surrender" and "betray" as he addressed the Commons.

A Labour MP referred to her colleague's murder as she criticised Mr Johnson's remarks but he dismissed her intervention as "humbug".

The prime minister said the best way to honour the memory of Jo Cox - who campaigned for Remain - and bring the country together, was "to get Brexit done".

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: September 26, 2019, 08:54:39 AM »
That top image DSC_0628.jpg looks like a 'real' starship 'dashboard'.

I've got a feeling that Nissan were channelling Star Trek when they designed the original LEAF, including the non standard "gear stick". The 2018 model exterior is much more conventional.

Compare and contrast:

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: September 25, 2019, 01:57:56 PM »
Why are you using a charging station as opposed to charging at home?

Lisa the LEAF usually charges "at home". However the distance from Tremail to Bristol is more than she can cover with a single full "tank".

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2019, 05:38:11 PM »
The NSIDC haven't called the minimum yet. Here's their September 17th update:

"Sloshing Around in the Polar Twilight"

Quote
The end of the Arctic sea ice melt season is nigh. The last couple of weeks have seen small rises and falls in ice extent, primarily due to changes in wind patterns. However, falling temperatures will soon accelerate the pace of ice growth.

Arctic sea ice extent was 4.21 million square kilometers (1.62 million square miles) on September 16, which is likely near the seasonal minimum extent that is expected within the next week.

However based on Wipneus' numbers I have no doubt Neven was right to open this thread!

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: September 22, 2019, 08:16:30 PM »
We've just announced the installation of 120 AC V2G capable charging stations in the car park of Triodos Bank's new offices in the Netherlands:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2019/09/triodos-new-car-park-with-solar-powered-ac-v2g/

Plus one in the car park of our office in SilicInny Valley, North Cornwall!

Feel free to attend the webinar linked to at the end of the article if you're at your keyboard at 13:00 UK time tomorrow.

Especially if your name is Neven. These things ought to be the perfect fit for the Sono Sion you've ordered!

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 04:33:26 PM »
At the risk of drifting off the topic of the OP, a cross post from Arctic Background:

"The Hearts in the Ice Expedition"

Quote
Hearts in the Ice is a platform for social engagement around climate change, started by Hilde Fålun Strøm and Sunniva Sorby.  It is a 9-month overwintering project in the High Arctic of Svalbard, Norway. Starting in August 2019 Hilde (Norway) and Sunniva (Canada) will inhabit the 20 sq mtr trappers cabin “Bamsebu”- 78’N. They will be the first women to over-winter in Svalbard "without men".

The project will serve as a platform for global dialogue and engagement concerning the changes we are experiencing in the Polar Regions which impacts the world and what we all, individually, might be able to do about it. Life at Bamsebu will be broadcast and published via Iridium satellite through social media to scientists, school children, adventurers, and interested citizens from around the world.



29
Arctic background / Re: Hearts in the Ice Expedition
« on: September 22, 2019, 04:25:00 PM »
There are some male faces amongst the Bamsebu Team!

https://www.heartsintheice.com/the-bamsebu-team/

See also:

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=no&u=https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bamsebu&prev=search

Perhaps the English version of the expeditions "About" page should be rearranged along the lines of:

Quote
They will be the first women to over-winter in Svalbard without men in a 20 sq mtr trappers cabin at 78N.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 08:36:07 AM »
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.

And here at the ASIF the honour of being the anointed thread starter comes with the heavy responsibility of trying to keep public order.

Welcome to the club Peter! If you're still around?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 21, 2019, 11:32:31 AM »
Time to unfreeze the freezing season thread

The proprietor's decision is final!

Let's hope the signal to noise ratio improves in the darkness?

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 07:53:52 AM »
Though it may seem off topic, it is not.

Oh yes it is Sam!

Whilst I don't disagree with your broader point, perhaps the "Slow Transition" thread is the right place to discuss "the decades long transition to a new atmospheric circulation"?


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 20, 2019, 07:26:43 AM »
I  had the same figure but  I  think NSIDC has updated the figures since then.

I've been incrementally updating my NSIDC spreadsheet for more years than I care to remember. I probably need to start from scratch with fresh SII 3.0 numbers.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 19, 2019, 06:13:29 AM »
JAXA/ViSHOP extent has just increased marginally, and now measures 3.98 million km²:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-2019-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-19

That puts the (very!) tentative minimum for 2019 at 3.96 million km² on September 17th.

Has the 2019/20 freezing season begun yet?!

35
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 18, 2019, 01:04:09 PM »
TS Jerry has officially been christened:

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 18, 2019, 08:11:23 AM »
Despite the "new ice" shown on the stage of development charts JAXA/ViSHOP extent is down slightly once again:

3.96 million km² to be precise!

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 18, 2019, 01:46:22 AM »
I've discovered that Peter Wadhams has just made a new preprint available via ResearchGate on my favourite, and his specialist, subject - Waves in ice!

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334223747_Wave-ice_interaction_in_the_North-West_Barents_Sea

Quote
The field work was performed in the Barents Sea, and the main focus of the paper is on wave processes in the MIZ. A model of wave damping in broken ice is formulated and applied to interpret the field work results. It is confirmed that waves of higher frequencies are subjected to stronger damping when they propagate below the ice. This reduces the frequency of most energetic wave with increasing distance from the ice edge. Difference of wave spectra measured in two relatively close locations within the MIZ is discussed. The complicated geometry and dynamics of the MIZ in the North-West Barents Sea allow waves from the Atlantic Ocean and south regions of the Barents Sea to penetrate into different locations of the MIZ.

38
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 17, 2019, 09:08:24 PM »
It's always the same pattern with them.

Thanks B. More from the Salon intro:

Quote
Donald Trump is the King of Chaos. He has lied at least 12,000 times since becoming president of the United States.

These lies are often obvious and lazy — such as incorrectly claiming that Hurricane Dorian would hit Alabama and then forcing scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to parrot his lies. Trump’s lies are made no less dangerous when they happen to be lazy and obvious.

Trump is unapologetic and unabashed in his contempt for American democracy and the rule of law. Many mental health professionals have concluded he is unwell. He lacks impulse control and evidences sociopathic behavior.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 17, 2019, 10:19:58 AM »
It looks like the JAXA Arctic Sea Iced extent has now gone below 4 million

I'd noticed that too. It most certainly has. Just!

On the "refreeze" front I don't see any "new ice" on the Canadian stage of development charts yet. However see also the Russian AARI maps, which are now showing some "nilas":

http://nsra.ru/en/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/icecharts.html

By way of example:




40
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 17, 2019, 02:03:51 AM »
National Hurricane Center

@NHC_Atlantic

Hurricane Humberto Advisory 17A: Humberto Likely to Become a Major Hurricane Within the Next Day Or So.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 17, 2019, 01:44:59 AM »
From Stefan Hendricks in the build up to MOSAiC:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-mosaic-expedition/#comment-289460

Freeze-up now in progress around the MOSAiC expedition start region. Higher ice concentrations than a week ago.

42
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 16, 2019, 10:21:16 PM »
Hurricane Humberto is now official.

Disturbance 1 is 90% over 5 days.


43
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 16, 2019, 02:31:11 PM »
Jaco Pastorius playing Jaco Pastorius

Thanks once again Martin. I've never seen/heard that before!

Jaco's early demise is possibly even sadder than Trane's?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaco_Pastorius#Death

44
The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: September 16, 2019, 12:57:58 PM »
An example of extremely bad journalism (IMHO!), in an organ of News Corp down under. Normally you'd have to pay to read (and comment on) this garbage, but thanks to the great god Google:

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:_5Z5hto1lSYJ:https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/ship-of-fools-6-global-warmists-rescued-from-icebound-ship/news-story/4c2c99d47230dff226cdb035f61d36fd+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

Quote
Yet another ship of fools:

Arctic tours ship MS MALMO with 16 passengers on board got stuck in ice on Sep 3 off Longyearbyen, Svalbard Archipelago, halfway between Norway and North Pole. The ship is on Arctic tour with Climate Change documentary film team, and tourists, concerned with Climate Change and melting Arctic ice. All 16 Climate Change warriors were evacuated by helicopter.

Rescued by helicopter? But what about all the emissions?

Zero "due diligence", apart from all the other failings! For further information please see:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/ship-of-fools-iii-escapes-arctic-sea-ice/

45
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: September 16, 2019, 12:49:14 PM »
I like that you can relay more info in 400 kb than some can in 40,000 ..  ;D

Shhhh!

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 10:48:57 AM »
JAXA/ViSHOP extent has now fallen below the 2016 minimum:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-2019-arctic-sea-ice-metric-minima/#Sep-16

Only 2012 left to beat!

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 03:34:08 PM »
The Freezing Season For Dummies

The 2019 melting season hasn't finished yet!

48
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: September 15, 2019, 01:45:20 PM »
Thanks Wipneus.

That's odd. EQ-Browser shows them...

I assume you mean EO?

https://www.sentinel-hub.com/explore/eobrowser

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 12:35:10 PM »
Jim this is great. Do you know if they will include cameras like the O-Buoys?

The SIMB 3's are much smaller (and hence cheaper!) than O-Buoys. They don't include cameras:

http://imb-crrel-dartmouth.org/simb3/

However in the past cameras have been pointed at IMB buoys. I'll ask Don a supplementary question!

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:00:15 AM »
Where is the best place to find ICE VOLUME for last few years

See the PIOMAS thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg226663.html#msg226663

To summarise:





Plus of course Andy's animations:




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