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Messages - GoodeWeather

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As at 26 June 2020,

- The NASDAQ Composite Index is 22% higher than a year ago,

- The S & P 500 Index is 2.3% higher than a year ago,

- The DJ 30 index is still 6% lower than a year ago.

The 30 stocks which make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average are:
3M, American Express, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cisco, Coca-Cola, Disney, Dow, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, McDonald’s, Merck, Microsoft, Nike, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Raytheon Technologies, Unitedhealth, Verizon, Visa, Walgreens, and Walmart.

I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.

I decided to go short on the market Thursday after seeing the scenes at bounemouth beach.  The market is insanely overvalued for the state we are in.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 06:45:52 PM »
NYC...line for emergency rooms...

Nope.  That is a line for a testing facility, not for ER.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2020, 09:34:32 PM »
Talk about very quick KARMA

Florida congressman says he came into contact with coronavirus patient
From CNN White House team

Rep. Matt Gaetz, who just returned to Washington from Florida traveling aboard Air Force One with President Trump, just tweeted that he "was informed today that he came into contact with a CPAC attendee 11 days ago who tested positive for COVID-19."

In a series of tweets, Gaetz's official account said, "While the Congressman is not experiencing symptoms, he received testing today and expects results soon. Under doctor's usual precautionary recommendations, he'll remain self-quarantined until the 14-day period expires this week."

And Gaetz's accounted also noted that his Washington office will be closed during this time. His Pensacola office will stay open.

Pool reporters also traveling aboard the presidential aircraft said they saw Gaetz disembarking from a separate entrance to the plane than the President, which is customary for most travelers aside from the President and his tight entourage. 

CNN has asked the White House for reaction to the announcement. 

This was the same congressman that wore a gas mask to the voting of the COVID-19 funding bill.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2020, 06:54:29 PM »
"We are not at the mercy of this virus," WHO director says

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, said the threat of a pandemic due to coronavirus "has become very real" as the virus continues to spread around the world.

"Now that the coronavirus has a foothold in so many countries, the threat of a pandemic has become very real. But it would be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled. The bottom line is: We are not at the mercy of this virus,” Tedros said Monday.
"This is an uneven epidemic at the global level. Different countries are in different scenarios, requiring a tailored response. It’s not about containment or mitigation – which is a false dichotomy. It’s about both,” Tedros added, all countries must take a “comprehensive blended strategy” for controlling their own epidemics.

What each country does to control the spread of novel coronavirus, “can also affect what happens in other countries and globally,” Tedros said.

Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO's Health Emergencies Programme, addressed the issue of a pandemic, saying the principle definition is that the disease has reached a point where it cannot be controlled, adding “if this was influenza, we would have called it ages ago," Ryan said.

W.H.O. is a JOKE!!!!!

So much of that does not make sense.

1st - Good luck controlling a virus that has an incubation period of 14-28 days.  That alone makes containment next to impossible.

2nd - Trump has not only put our country at great risk, but also the rest of the world by not having testing ready.  It's inexcusable that we were and still are so behind in testing for this virus.

3rd-  A Pandemic Is Declared
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) signaled that a global pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) was underway by raising the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. At the time, more than 70 countries had reported cases of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection and there were ongoing community level outbreaks of novel H1N1 in multiple parts of the world.

What the actual FUCK?!?!   This screams smoke and mirrors to me!!

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 09, 2020, 03:18:43 PM »
Yup, crazy sh!t goin' down:

It is the most crude price-bearish combination since the early 1930s. The price collapse has just begun

Italy’s FTSE MIB lost more than a tenth of its value ...

Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at US asset manager Pimco, said a recession in the US and the eurozone in the first half of the year was now “a distinct possibility” and that Japan was “very likely” already in one.

Nearly all the stock market gains since Trump became president have been wiped out...they were all an illusion

Didn't take a genius to see how over inflated the market was.  Just wait until major supply chains get ruptured.  A bottleneck has already appeared and if things continue like this, we will most likely see the DJI fall below 20,000. 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 09, 2020, 02:47:29 PM »
Experience form NYC Times Square

So yesterday was my wife's birthday and I got us tickets to go see "Frozen" on broadway.  When parking at Port Authority, it seemed a little strange that there were way more parking spots than normal.  As soon as we got the the streets it was business as usual for NYC.  Still lots of people around going about their business like nothing was wrong.   Passed hundreds of people in times square and i only saw ONE person wearing a mask.

When we got to the theater, I was expecting it to not be a sold out show.  I was wrong.  Completely packed house and little kids all over the place.  While it was comforting to see other people acting like nothing was wrong, it was a little dis concerning as well.  We practiced good hygiene, brought some hand sanitizer and avoided touching handrails and door handles.

Given what I saw yesterday and what we know about this virus, I can clearly see NYC being the next epicenter in a few weeks.   There is going to be an explosion of cases here within the next month.   Stay safe and healthy everyone.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 05, 2020, 10:28:13 PM »
At some point they told it came from a snake, and that made several people laugh. Not that i know why. That feeds the idea that something is'nt right.

You ain't the haid.

 Go hate Trump a little bit more Shared humanity. The only reason why half of your country is not freezing to dead in winter is because of fossil feuls. And that you use a little bit less coal, is because you frack the shit out of your land. Because your wind turbines and solar panels, that's not even enough to keep up with growth. Wake up fool.

Is thread about COVID-19 or energy consumption and politics?   Let's try to keep this discuss about this virus.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 09:00:48 PM »
Well this came out of nowhere!!!

Six people have died from coronavirus in Washington state

Six people have now died in Washington state from the novel coronavirus, according to health officials.

A person has died from coronavirus in Snohomish County, according to Heather Thomas, spokesperson with the Snohomish Health District. No additional details were immediately available from the health district.

Five other people have died in King County, according to Jeffrey Duchin, a public health official with the county.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 04:19:02 PM »
GW, you're likely to be fine. Most cases are mild.

Which leads me to a question. It appears the virus has been in the wild and circulating for many weeks in the Seattle area (and possibly others). As far as I know, there has not been an uptick in hospital admissions, ER and Urgent Care visits, etc. Assuming this is true, is that comforting? Or is that region still so low down on the growth curve that those things have not happened yet.

Any thoughts?

I agree that most cases are mild and also i'm not in a high risk age bracket.  However i do have a 1 year old at home with not an advanced immune system as my wife and i have which is what gives me pause. 

Growth rate in the US will be extremely unreliable as we were way behind the rest of the world in testing for the virus.  So when we do start testing more people the growth rate will surge.

edit:  blum it happened again  :-X . No matter how many times i re-read my post, dyslexia always gets the better of me.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 02, 2020, 04:05:57 PM »
Welp....I'm fucked....

I work at one of the most trafficked, private, ice rinks on the east coast.  Every day i have my staff wipe down all the door handles, restrooms, est., but even doing that will not be enough once the virus starts to gain a foothold here.  On top of that my wife commutes into NYC 3 days a week via public transportation.

Instead of worrying about the obvious risks, we still go about our days just being more vigilant about basic hygiene.  I have all my dry goods, loads of chicken soup and a nice stash of ibuprofen.  Not much more we can do but just accept that we will probably get infected at some point and being able to handle it.

Gonna go snowboarding tomorrow to get a break from reality and put my mind more at ease, if even just for half the day.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 27, 2020, 06:45:07 PM »
Good luck to anyone seeking N95 masks.  I drove all over Bergen County, NJ this morning.  4 major hardware stores sold out(3 home depot, 1 lowes) and most local hardware stores are also sold out.

The last local store I went into had some masks, but not the N95.  There was another person in the store also looking for masks and by the time we realized we were both looking for the same item, it became a race to find them.  As I'm speed walking down one end of the aisle, I can see her keeping pace on the other.  She found the section before me and before i could say anything, see grabbed every last box and went to the register.  I was about to curse her out before a worker told me they had another case in the back.

I can honestly say I have never experienced anything like that in my life, aside from black Friday, and felt it was an experience i should share here.  I really don't want to imagine what things will be like when community transmission actually begins.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 26, 2020, 05:14:47 PM »
Things could get out of hand in Italy in the next 2-3 weeks.

How churches in Northern Italy are handling Ash Wednesday mass

While the Pope's Ash Wednesday mass at the church of Santa Sabina in Rome is going on as planned, other Catholic churches across Italy are modifying their services because of coronavirus.

Catholic churches in many cities in the north of Italy — such as in Bologna, Turin, and Venice — have suspended their Ash Wednesday services. Some of them are offering masses online or through local television.

Ash Wednesday is one of the most important religious days for Catholics after Christmas and Easter. It signifies the beginning of Lent, a period of six weeks before Easter when many Christians fast, abstain from meat and make a personal Lenten sacrifice to prepare themselves for Easter.


This seems like a disaster waiting to happen given what we already know of this virus's incubation period of 14-28 days.  It was also reported that next to no measures will be in place to reduce human contact.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 05, 2020, 06:00:27 PM »
Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
I have great respect for the stupidity of national governments, but if it is getting that bad China will never be able to keep it secret and then being caught in a lie will make it ten times worse. I know the temptation to take the easy way out in the short term, but if they have succumbed to it then this is very scary.

Better off as chalking it up to someone editing that data to create fear and panic.  The recoveries is what really screams out to me as "FAKE NEWS".

We saw a lot of people posting on social media how the virus was crossed with HIV and proven to be man made, but that was quickly debunked.

I don't even look at the numbers anymore.  What i do look at, is the broader picture of what is going on.

1)China originally tried to cover this up in the middle of December by arresting 8 doctors who investigating the very first cases.  Citing they were "spreading rumors" by mentioning SARS in their findings.

2)December 31 - China investigates 27 cases of "viral pneumonia" amid online speculation that it could be linked to a SARS flu-like virus.

3)January 22 - 571 confirmed case and 17 deaths.  China suspends all outbound travel from Wuhan.

4)January 24 - China expands "quarantine" to include 13 other cities, restricting travel to over 40 million people.  USA issues travel warning level 4 for Wuhan.

5)January 26 - USA and France announce plans to evacuate nationals out of Wuhan (multiple counties follow this lead in the following days)

6) January 31 - USA issues level 4 travel warning for all of China just the day after the WHO finally declared the virus a Public health emergency of international concern. 

Let's stop here and discuss the events that took a little over a month to develop

#1 - This alone shows that we can not trust anything China is telling us

#2 - These were the first "reported" cases.

#3 - China quarantines a population of 11 million people for only 517 cases and 17 deaths??? Drastic measures illustrating how they completely underestimated the virus's ability to spread.

#4 - China desperately trying to contain the outbreak of the virus that has already spread well beyond the point of origin.

#5 - Countries evacuating their nationals for ground zero.  This measure probably worries me the most.  Not in the sense that they may transport the virus, because it is already here.  More so from the point of view that countries are making a desperate attempt to save their citizens.

#6 - This one leads me to believe that we might see china get "sealed off" from the rest of the world (multiple border crossings with nations already closed).

With all that addressed, the actual number for deaths and cases is almost certainly higher than reported(how much higher is what remains to be seen), but i do think that this Tencent data was physically altered for the purpose of spreading fear.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 01, 2020, 03:14:27 AM »
The effects of the quarantine may be beginning to show. This looks tentatively like an R0 reduction from 2.7 to 1.7.

Are the confirmed cases limited by the number of tests that can be performed each day?

I hope that is not the case, but there are reports of limited testing supplies available.

2 things trouble me today.

1) Can anyone confirm the validity of the videos circulating, shows bodies lying in the streets?  Those videos paint a much larger picture of what is going on if valid?

2)The 7th confirmed German case is apparently the child of one of the employees of the company where the virus was first reported.  The reason this troubles me so much, is if this child went to school at any point while carrying this virus.  Germany could be the next place we see a large cluster of cases outside of China. :-\

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 25, 2020, 07:47:11 PM »
Did a little digging into coronaviruses on the internet, and came across the article tracing SARS to bats.   The article is 3 years old and very prevalent to what is happening right now.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: November 21, 2019, 04:16:47 PM »
I think that by eliminating abortion and sterilization you've eliminated all of the least horrific solutions possible.

An infinite population in a finite space simply isn't possible. China has shown that a one child policy is viable. When will the rest of the world conceded that breeding more people than can be cared for is inhumane, unjust & impractical.

If you attempted it with any other animal species you would properly be arrested.

Sorry gotta do it.   China's One Child policy was not viable for the continued stability of their economy which is why they ended it in 2015.

The most alarming thing about this, is the ratio of men to women now in China.  Roughly 34 MILLION more men than women.  Also with an aging population it is putting incredible stress on the younger generation.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 06:44:18 PM »
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

Spot on.   One of the most impressive things about Dorian is that up until now, it was able to maintain it's most interior structure without going through an EWRC, which has also kept the strongest winds very close to the center.   Dorian is now finishing the end of its first EWRC and you can expect he hurricane force wind field to expand from the center a little more.   I can see this maintaining as a Major hurricane up the coast of Florida while expanding its wind field at the same time with the assistance of the gulf stream.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 03:13:59 PM »
Has anyone had a look at the 06z 3KNAM run yet!?!   I know it's the NAM and typically does not perform well with tropical systems, but was one of the few models that predicted that mass IR of Dorian from a high end 4 (150mph) to a super cat5 (180+mph).

Anyways,  it has Dorian deepening again once it hits the gulf stream and this time sub 900mb.  Probably won't happen but definitely something to watch for.  SSTs are crazy high in front of Dorian's path.

BTW GFS and Euro also hint at restrengthening once it hits the gulf stream.  Global models are doing horrible job with the initialization.  They keep starting their runs 30mb higher than what the pressure actually is. 

Consequences / Re: AGW consequences where you live
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:29:31 AM »
Northeast warming faster than rest of US, particularly in winter:

As a New Jersey resident I have to call BS on this article.  First off more people live in the sector of the northeast than any other sector in the country, which would include more cities and more of a heat island effect...not really news.  Second their data only constricts to meteorological winter and not astronomical which would include part or match, and anyone living in the northeast will tell you that is to most variable month of the year (March 2016 was the coldest march on record for a lot of tristate areas).

I can not deny that winter is not what it used to be, but I'm unimpressed by the means they support it.  Seems just like stating an obvious fact.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 01:20:28 PM »
There is another separate thread to compare this year to 2012.  There is too much noise in this thread already when comparing 2019 to other years.  People come to this thread to discuss this year and the dynamics that are causing it to melt not analoging it to other years.

« on: August 10, 2019, 12:12:42 AM »
I can't remember such a lot of questions when  joined.

I don't know but my guess is that as the forum becomes more well known, it becomes of more interest to those who wish all sites that accept AGW harm. Perhaps Neven has had to increase the forum's defences.

ps: I would have failed the Lena river question until about a year ago.
pps: Does Neven allow one or two failures before giving an "F" ?

I was just thinking about this earlier.  I definitely would have failed that before this year.  Been lurking in the shadows for many many years.  There is an incredible wealth of knowledge on this forum and I have learned so much over the years thanks to everyone that posts here.

ps.  that question came up for this post lol.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 01:45:56 AM »
First time poster, been lurking since 2012.  I feel like this season is the time to break the silence. 

I have never seen the ice that is along the CAA and north Greenland in worse condition than any year I have been following the arctic.  We may not hit a record minimum, but this is definitely looking like a year that is preconditioning the pack for a massive loss in the coming years.  My worry is that once the pack is detached from all land, it will be extremely mobile and deteriorate rapidly with the slightly bit of unsettled weather.

Again not happening these year, but she is starting to showmany signs of fatigue.

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