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Messages - AndyW

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 24, 2019, 05:23:04 PM »
Models are trending deeper and deeper. Below 970 hpa will as forecasted now make this complex looking like a GAC. Brace yourself for ice armagedon.....

I'm braced.

What are your predictions on the amount of sea ice lost in the next week in km2?


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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 24, 2019, 05:17:15 PM »
Forgetting weather currently, the ice pack looks like it may get down to sub 4million km2 but not guaranteed.

August is a different kettle of fish compared to July unlike 2012, most years are.

I still don't think there is enough evidence for melt ponds etc giving a link to really low summer minimums from the Winter extent.

That might change in the next few years.


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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 22, 2019, 09:20:08 AM »
I doubt this storm will provide much melt,  it is both geographically and temporally in the wrong place for a large melt caused by dispersion or compaction.

The 2012 storm was earlier and over the central Arctic  while this is later and mainly over land.

I'm new to this board and while there is a fantastic amount of data and science on here it surprises me that there is so much desire for melt and records rather than just watching it and learning; it should be about what happens, or potentially happens, not what you want to happen.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 22, 2019, 08:48:35 AM »
The Atlantic side near Spitzbergen shows more ice than the last couple of years currently.

In regards to 2012 I don't think 2019 is comparable at all due to the unusual weather in 2012  which 2019 has not had. 2019 is now following the general trend for August (so far) but will still be a very low year.

Personally I always ignore 2007 and 2012 as outliers and just look at the general trend.

Once the Arctic gets down to 2012 ice extent levels  repetitively, like it has compared to 2007 now, then that is worth noting.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: August 15, 2019, 03:07:51 PM »
In regards to the NW passage being navigable I don't think this is a very interesting topic until year on year you can go north of Victoria Island  and do the direct route.

That would then equate to ships transversing the Northern passage on the eastern side easily, as per all the action currently.


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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: August 09, 2019, 06:45:18 PM »

The Canadian sea ice service bulletins need  to used for this.

To me though it does not matter, because commercial shipping uses the Northern passage and this is more important for a clear passageway.

NW is just for stuck yachts or historically inclined adventurers trying to get through. With 21st C commerce the Northern passage is far more important.

Andy


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