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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: October 02, 2020, 09:17:01 PM »
Sure Oren, I agree that would be ideal. Anyone can see this for themselves with the currents and temperatures settings on nullschool, Windy's wave and swell settings, the itp charts at

Though I love to present these hypothesis in Beautiful Animations, and have images to make them from, my laptop hours are limited it's setup in a house, and my amphious 6m x 2.2m 2m standing hight solar electric mobile home, while comfortable to live in and energy independent, and capable of going all day long at 10-39kmph without out even drawing battery power on a single 100w solar panel, is not yet a risk free environment for a computer. Especially in a supervolcano caldera in winter.
I have some twenty gigabytes of satellite imagery and volcanic gas surface concentration data to process into videos small enough to share before our next international Greenland Emergency videoconference in a
Others here have better infrastructure and image processing skills than me.
I have to prioritize. Marveling at the mayhem asi is displaying, though interelated is a distraction that is escapism and light relief from the far bigger and more dangerous problem that we are trying to develop a feasible technological response for blunting the damage to be rapidly deployed.
This forum is a valuable resource, and the many hours put   in in near-real-time analysis and presentation by the gurus here, and your level headed moderation are most appreciated, thank you all.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 27, 2020, 11:59:39 PM »
Yes, didn't mean to imply it's bust today. But it should have it's thickest fresh lid of the year right now.  Instability sets in as it starts to freeze and multiple mechanisms such as large over turnings, as muddy the composite plots as you point out, set in.   
Also in play are osmotic diffusion of salt upwards, freshwater downwards across the fresh/saline boundary, and algae blooms sinking, entraining fresh water, taking it down to mix with the salty stuff, and thermal conduction and radiation upwards into the shield of the heat in that summer water layer. Once there it will convect to surface.
All these processes have been steadily ratcheting up in mutually reinforcing mixing effects. And weakening the shield stability since the earliest Beaufort ITPs in 2005.
In TrekSpeak:
Shields are at 20% and worse still, they and structural reinforcement fields and the warp core are suffrin from wild an unpreductable instubilities since tha last exotic energy wave swept through the quadrant.
Ah dinae ken how the ship could survive another like it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2020, 08:55:16 AM »
Well. With Mosaic basically proving that the best piece of ice in the best position on the Atlantic side of the Lomonosov ridge LOST thickness on its entire transit from October to may, from 7m to 5m, through constant bottom melt, and never froze it's soggy core. And now that they can cruise at open water efficiency, from laptev to Fram north of 86 latitude, and never register any fresh freezable layer...
 There appears to be no such thing as a Arctic sea ice freezing season anymore in this half of the Arctic basin.
Therefore I suggest a poll to rename this forum the SiAlCa sea ice forum. Hopefully there will be a few years while those elements hydrated minerals can still stay cold enough to remain solid on those sectors polar seas. Unlike Venus.
Wry and somewhat twisted that this bad half joke may sound.

<To make such claims you need to point out the source. I am not aware of any such findings. O>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 24, 2020, 12:19:30 AM »
For pitys sake! Can someone here with a pixel counter run it over Hycom seaice thickness charts, so we can get an unpoliticised best available actual estimate on volume trends? And currently very obviously the lowest ever minimum that we are approaching?
Many of the best brains have fled this forum out of exasperation about the constant petty defending of "Trumped" data.

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 23, 2020, 11:40:55 PM »
I think you mean just north of 86 north old boy?
That slush pic in their wake was at 88.3 just after they left on the 20th btw.
I think the Cap'n thunk the kids needed a bit of a reality check by scaring them to think they were going to run head on into a Beaufort 9 storm front with wave and swell chaos in the shelf fragments and skyscraper sized  Bergs on the edge of the ice front.
Instead he has turned ninety degrees due West to run with it.
They've copped the force nine thunderstorm hot front on the butt. But so far have no idea what force 9 sea states near coasts look like. He may blood them with that experience in the next few days.
This auld Ships Cap'n do. Me bin coastal on sail in force twelve Gustin to 180kmph. And experienced the site of 100+ ft rolling breakers from one horizon to the other coming in from the southern ocean at 60 second period all day long. Wavelength some 3km and velocity over 200kmph in the deep where they spawned, the beasties!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 19, 2020, 03:13:52 AM »
The crude piomas model <unsubstantiated dissing snipped>.
Hycom has not been falsified by any direct ice thickness measurement by human or buoy. We have about 25% of 2012 ice volume currently <warning: not true>, and far more near surface ocean heat with far thinner fresh surface barrier. It's basically inevitable that big storm activity will wreak havoc on what's left as continental temperatures drop, but Arctic ocean heat is unable to.

<Please make sure posts are fact-based. O>

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: September 18, 2020, 08:37:02 PM »
Watch out Mosaic!

There's been 14 second swells of 0.2 m coming out on the ESAS, AFTER passing all the way from Fram, under them <reader beware, this is nonsense>. May be having the effect you point out on the floe motion ATeam.
Also outburst flushing from Greenland, which looks to be going through exponential runaway geothermal blowout <reader beware, nonsense>, has been launching submarine landslides that are shedding violent fresh upwellings, and possibly mini tsunami surges, which could look like standard tidal effects, since the subglacial outbursts occur primarily at high tides. <nonsense>
Their "pretty frost flowers" are sadly a symptom of large energy injection from water vapour condensing. Driving bottom melt.
Gotta click the stupid gif to see the 11m long period waves heading for them in a few days.

<Warnings added. Posts must be fact-based. O>

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 06, 2020, 11:28:31 PM »
Mosaic say down from extent 3.5 yesterday to 3.4 today.
Where their data from?
Are NSIC and Jaxa just pr products for the masses now?

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 06, 2020, 09:13:17 PM »
Polarsterns been sampling that eddy for precisely that reason. This looks like well over 20 gigatons of subglacial outbursts in the NW alone in the last few weeks. Not only are they heavy with up to 90% rock, capable of carving canyons over 1000 km out into deep ocean basins, but the surging of fast glaciers can melt the bedrock at 1500 C plus, so they can be very warm indeed.

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 05, 2020, 09:50:36 PM »
Lots of sensors on this buoy. Reason it needed to do only one up/ down crawl per 3 days, causing the lumpy looking T/S plots btw.

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: August 05, 2020, 09:42:11 PM »
Itp 94 deployed by the Mosaic campaign has finished Its run and returned some very disturbing readings. Dissolved oxygen at near zero for the whole Atlantic side transit. Dissolved and particulate organic matter, turbidity through the roof. I desperately hope the DO sensor was faulty. But it would explain why all the polar bears were way out on the Atlantic front.
Major high turbidity upwelling from well below 760m depths was detected out near the pole. Suspect that sediment and methane laden bottom freshwater flow from Laptev and/or 79N NE Greenland subglacial outbursts have busted the deep halocline stability out in the deep basin bringing up ex-hypersaline bottomwater mass from the deep basin. VERY scary. Our much appreciated contributer
 Veli albert kallio is the world acknowledged professional expert on this kind of thing. We've had discussions previously  about this sort of possibility, with Wadhams and other experts I work with involved. I'll get a conference going. We may have to look at urgent oxygen and salt restoratation in deep benthic Atlantic side of the Lomonosov.
Would be very helpful if Uniquorn can do one of his locations/date animations over bathometry so we can localise events clearly.

Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM
« on: August 04, 2020, 09:00:06 PM »
Unfortunate that Hycom has seemingly decided to censor the higher resolution Beaufort model. Its last run on the 24th of July looks like a darn good effort in advance of the accurate picture SMOS is presenting. Bearing in mind that the Soil Moisture/ Ocean Salinity sensor works on detecting the averages over a 40km square grid between the less salty ice surface and the horizon of slush soaked with seawater below.
Its low frequency radar sees straight through ice and water cloud, including fog. The maximum resolution of the higher frequency radars used by Jaxa, etc for their much more promoted extent and area metrics, is at the expense of being badly compromised by cloud effects. And they are still limited to about 500m resolution, so do not see open water below that breadth. A bigger and bigger problem in this season every year. Hycom is probably suffering from falling behind in the need to update algorithims to account for these rapidly crumbling models Its assimilating data from.
Ice crumbling to fields of dispersed slush is far different to solid sheets with crosshatchings of long leads.
Other than the Chukchi not getting the Beaufort arm shoved as far into it, and more ice surging into mckenzie bay from the CAA mega flow than Hycom predicted before the storm, good predictive skill I think. Backed up by what satellite visuals we've had through the clouds and fog.
Still have to click to animate the absurdly small smos gif.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 04:19:36 AM »
Sorry to ruin the party again but Hycom is thickness is not comparable between these years, the model has been changed several times since then, and 2012 has not been back-calculated.
BTW, DMI thickness is also not considered very reliable, again I would appreciate decreasing the frequency of posting it to the main thread.

Ah ok thanks for the info found a 2015 Hycom seems more compatible now they have fixed it, still a sucky year 2020. I Prefer data from small democratic socialist countries like Denmark and Finland, large democratic countries data is manipulated in a lot of cases it seems.

It could be argued that in a fast changing arctic, Its the models that are not updated that provide the poorest comparisons with past years. 2012 cleared out most of the years old hardened Ice. The sort capable of forming large pressure ridged fields. Unseasoned young ice, or waterlogged the previous summer is as little as ten percent as strong as fully brine excluded ice. The very rare legacy floe Mosaic used could be considered best case. May have spent many years hardning as fast Ice in the outer Siberian islands, yet the core of Its 7 m pressure ridge failed to fully freeze all winter.
On  about the best drift path it could have had.
 When they first picked it up it was waterlogged from base near to sealevel.
DMI is another example which seems to drift further from reality every year. Now showing up to three meter ice when the nearest has been slush hundreds of km further out to sea for weeks.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 08:47:38 AM »

While we were all focussing on the storm, the north of Greenland has been roasting like a pig.
Yes. Foehn winds off Greenland and Elesmere have been fueling the storm, and expanding the megacrack. Last three day animation. Crick-crick!
Not only that, look at the SST anomaly in the Lincoln sea and west of Ellesmere.  ???
Is this a first?
Quite possibly. Especially for this time of year. South of Elsmere is even scarier with actual SST. Offshore winds over shelfdrops, when deep currents of warmer saltier stuff oppose will do this kind of thing.
Worse news? Those temps and anomalies are 42 hrs old. They only update every 4 days. Look out next update!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 08:27:28 AM »
Looking at whats up in the various atmospheric levels up to the tropopause, leaves me not so sure this cyclone is a short term visitor.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 09:35:28 PM »
Current wave conditions impacting the ice around the Beaufort cyclone. And peak wind and rain and temp as forecast by the Euro around min pressure at 6 to 9 hrs from now.  animate with clicking.
The waves of 2.3 from west and 1m swells from south conspire to produced grid of peaks 3.3 m above sealevel, and holes 3.3 below sealevel with distance about twenty metres over this 6.6m heights difference. An ice pulverising party, beginning right now off Barrow.
The peak winds and rain set to sever the Beaufort arm from the Outer CAA.
Also Hycom prediction for thickness and concentration in seven days after the storm has (will it???) passed. So we can scrutinise Its predictive skill in a week from now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 11:32:07 AM »
The Beaufort is high extent because temps have been normal.
I don't think that's the only reason Friv. I think a slowdown of the gyre and thicker ice may have something to do with this as well. And then I saw the low sality...

But as you all know by now, I'm just a fat guy with a computer, so I'm gonna shut up now and leave it up to the specialists.  :-X
It certainly is not the reason. Clickon this animation of the last ten days of the furious pace of discharge from the central arctic sea into the Beaufort, both down the CAA coast, and also clearly visible the motion towards the Chukchi of the fragmented and low concentration central Beaufort.
The Irminger current historically used to turn south below Greenland and dip around Greenland before merging with the Labrador and heading south.
As pictured. Last ten years Its been turning south further north near Svalbard. Now last year, and even more this it has decided to go over the top of Greenland, and this year, not even satisfied by colonising the CAA, and Aided by the Beaufort clockwise gyre being closer to Mckenzie Bay,  it has stopped the Alaskan coastal current, heading east from Bering,  or at least pushed it under to flood the central Beaufort.
As you are seeing some is also going along the siberian coast.
It should be no surprise with this going on that the Beaufort, Chukchi and north of Greenland are about to catastrophically crash, along with the CAA. Particularly if the sub 980 low forecast in the Beaufort appears in a few days as forecast.
Click on Hycom thickness and concentration animations to see whats been and about to happen.

I think we are seeing serious far reaching consequences that may be attributed to these glaciers discharging dense silt laden freshwaters that avalanche down the seafloor to the deeps of the amundsun basin and gakkel trench system showing up in the ITP111 transect that has just been retrieved.
There are visible many small and one major upwellings of warm freshwater, and often very warm and saline entrained below or alongside, from far below the maximum depth range. From about the point the buoy crossed the gakkel in april, the halocline stability essentially collapsed with less than 0.5 psu separating surface and the huge wad of heat from ~100-500m depth. Some geothermal heat may have been brought up by this over the trench.
Its a little hard to wrap your head around whats going on in some of these spikes, but realising that 1000m rise in the water column of a parcel of water means 2.5C drop in temp due to expansion helps.
The buildup of subtropical Atlantic currents anticlockwise around Greenland, and even reading 33psu and over six degrees at surface as it exits from beneath the CAA ice is disturbing. Eric Rignot expressed surprise in detecting Atlantic water coming in from nares strait to the nth and attacking the base of the humbolt in the Kane basin on his sampling trip last year. He shouldn't have been surprised. This system change has been pretty obviously building for at least three years. People are witholding data unfortunately.
The catastrophic cascade collapse in the near Future of the GIS is not something many want to be heard talking about. 🙄

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 19, 2020, 09:15:33 PM »
Oh what a wonderful surprise! After being missing in actions since January, ITP 111 has come home with a full profile along a very simular drift path to Mosaic.
Wow!!! No halocline whatsoever since march somewhere near the pole.

Contrasting with the other Atlantic side buoys, that stopped publishing profiles in january, same area, 102,  and 116 which quit on Jan 11. Same date as 117, 118, and 119 in the Beaufort. Just as they reached the upslope nth of the CAA (way too deep still for snagging the bottom, all.)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 10:42:02 PM »
Hycoms concentration plummeting from ESS, through centre of Chukchi and Beaufort to mckenzie delta. Right now decent fetch winds hitting the laptev ice front with warm ssta and over 2.6m waves. Pity nullschool cuts off waves nth of 77deg, probably bigger at the ice edge. click to animate Hycom.
Edit: Euro has 3.5 m further out. Windy clipping further nth.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:05:27 PM »
Seems good support for Hycoms prediction of rapid export of thickest ice from CAB along Beaufort and Chukchi Alaskan coast to soon be cut off by rapid meltout starting from centre out to coast of these seas.
Do we have any active sensor buoys in centre of these seas Uniquorn? [Edit: oops, answer is yes, missed 114 on your chart]
Click to play animation:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 09:19:07 AM »
Compaction is a strong extent killer and makes for big headlines. The more important questions at this stage are what happens with area - which also dropping fast, and especially volume/thickness - which one can only imagine is breaking some daily records.
I note that wind-induced Fram export has not started yet. The smaller Nares is already half empty and racing for the exit.

Well this image from June 30 in the article:

about the unusually thin ice Mosaic has encountered is the first I have seen them release giving an honest view of conditions. Not the usual puff pieces about haircuts and how well resetting up all the equipment is going, or cute polar bears.
This area was getting cooled winds from the mid basin and probably less sizzle than most anywhere else in CAB so not looking flash. Also rocks and shelfish thawing out of the central fortress floe show it is ex ESAS fast Ice, and they report most ice in region was only around 50cm, compared to 1.6m usually found in same area where they started in late 1990s.
Stones thawed out of fortress also attach.

Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 06, 2020, 10:55:14 PM »
Only beige pixels now are tiny spot in foxe basin. Even red to purple scarce in arctic basin.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 01:56:29 AM »
The subpolar heatwaves in eurasian and nth american sector have made tatters and rags
 of subpolar jet. At top of turbosphere, 250hpa, is reverse jet from east to west blow as air moves south , even passing equator in 90% of circumference, except for small  cell propped up by la nina walker cell in central pacific. Strong global Low altitude backflow IS sweep southern tropical heat and moisture nth, cause records floods in stheasf asia, AND hot air punch through to feed strong north pole ridge as ramp up over seaice cooled surface air. Temp above zero from surface to 3km altitude above pole is ongoing.
Hadley cell are demolish. Ferrel cell circulate planet, owning turbosphere from 60 nth to 20 sth. Polar cell maintain, while sea ice melt cool arctic basin. Very much room for polar cell eaten by ferrel system in next few months. Stereographic projection in nullschool images to best display full hemisphere dynamics.

Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM
« on: June 28, 2020, 08:46:10 PM »
If I may add, the ice distribution in Hycom is very weird, with all the thick ice up to 5m bunched very near to Greenland and the CAA, and the rest of the CAB at a measly 2-2.5m. I find it very hard to believe this represent a true gradient, and Cryosat-SMOS does not support this either.

It now occurs to me that an ASCAT animation, showing where the old ice is and covering the period leading up to mid-April, could be very useful here as well. There should some animations available that uniquorn has posted through the winter and spring, will look for a suitable one.
Perhaps we should remember that smos has a 40km grid resolution, and cryosat cannot resolve leads and ridges below a scale of 200-300m. It is unlikely that smos is contributing in the area you reference anyway as it is good at sub 1 m thickness, whole cryosat is better when ice is thicker than that.
So cryosat may assume ridge fields tops as continuous freeboard when things are far more complex at scales below Its resolution. A pity both are confounded during melt season, smos by wet ice, and cryosat by atmospheric moisture, especially cloud and fog, snow, particularly with melted and refrozen layers can cause both to oberestimate freeboard also.

Overall I am fairly impressed by the match between Hycom and crysmos in the april comparison. I am not sure why you find it so weird that the thickest ice is where it gets crushed and stacked by drift pressure against these coastlines, where also it experiences the coldest, with Katabatic winds dropping off tall ice sheets and mountains in midwinter?
At the end i guess, probably the truth may be somewhere in the middle. With unknown it is good I think to keep minds open to All informations, and individuals must balance how many "grains of salt" should each source be taken with.  :P

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: June 28, 2020, 10:38:33 AM »
I looked more closely at p159. It only reports hourly and has a lot of missing drift speed data. The animation probably struggles to process it correctly with the other buoys.

Temperature profiles for all the buoys I could find with thermistor data. M29, t63 and t70 appear to show bottom melt. I'd welcome any expert opinion on interpreting the near surface temperatures.

Wow Sir! :o
You may have just set a New world records for the most information anyones ever crammed into a 40 second silent video.
I'm counting  6 that are melted out or in holes full of water, possibly malfuct.
Apart from that...
Am I correct the thermistors are 2cm spacing?
If so, the rest look between about 70cm and 150cm.
With the exception of t61. The bottom of that on may be off the graph. Was that the one in a pressure ridge? There kinda looks like a bit of a flat toe right at the end, though at about minus three C. Its probably soggy with brine thats been leached down from above from there to Its ragged butt.
Theres a couple that have lumps of higher temps near their bottoms, which if not sensor failure could be the result of being freely plumbed to melt ponds and finished with their initial brine flushing cycle. Hence fresh enough for the warmer surface heated water to be denser than cold melt water, and therefore be busily engaged in burrowing for freedom.
If 61 has a longer string I'd love to see, say the last month of the whole thing. Core temp is still below top and bottom temps on that chart, though rising steadily. If Its on a ridge melt ponding probably won't confuse things, and it would be very interesting observing the dynamics of Its deep keel as it melts.

Overall most of them seem about 1m thick, and probably melting both top and bottom. FollowMosaic site has been listing -1.5 or -1.6 water temps this last week. Which is about 0.3C above melting at local salinity. So the ice bottom temp is clamped at about minus 1.8, and the top of the ice at about 0C.
61 could actually be melting at -3C in Its Briney nether regions, and for that matter quite probable that dips below -1.8C in the cores of any the rest is due result to brine pockets chewing their innards into honeycomb ice. Rather than not yet being at thermal equilibrium as some may assume. One to two days above melting point is sufficient for that in such thin and young ice.
Around 1m thick agrees with Hycoms chart in that region. The "fortress" and PS are about 100km into the pack, directly nth of Svalbard by my guestimascione right now. Not sure how widely spread the buoys are. 1 degrees latitude is a smidge over 110km up there (just over 111 near the equator). Longitude much less and less again further north of course.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 01:27:11 AM »
Why post month old Hycom?
Sorry. Because of the garlic press discussion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 01:16:01 AM »
That HYCOM model ^^ predicts lift off of the thickest ice , which may soon come slamming back and have us an active garlic press by the middle of July . Just one of the many reasons this could still be BOE No 1 ! b.c.
This model has been showing an active garlic press, or perhaps cheese grater or ice cream scoop since may.
Whether Its right or not, blue has gone deep violet on worldview in the most protected place for seaice in the arctic today.

Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM vs ASMR2 Imagery
« on: June 25, 2020, 11:53:50 PM »
Mind reader! Lols
Would you believe I just downloaded those seven years for 25 June and was about to post them? At least one of us must be psychic!
Perhaps certain people repeatedly claiming that this year is not in the running for any records got to you too. ;)
This month animation of Beaufort ice compressive strength is interesting. Seems to be getting very mushy.
Might as well post the latest month animation too, out to July 2.
As might be expected with a week of hot offshore winds, the ocean side of the CAA looks like Its detaching like it did last year.

The most simular year to this one at this point seems like 2017. Not sure if the velocity of export to the Beaufort and Fram were as high as this year has produced. Particularly how the thickest ice has been pouring out of the inner basin down the outer CAA, and keeping the Beaufort and Chukchi full, as fast as they try to melt it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 22, 2020, 10:12:10 PM »
I've read many messages here about anomalously thick ice against Svalbard, but I'm not seeing it.

I always had my doubts about that claim because I thought that this thick ice got flushed down the Fram a long time ago. But I didn't have any prove for that claim, so I didn't say anything about it. I think I have prove now with a clear view on the ice there. This ice doesn't look very thick at all if you ask me...

Found this animation with the last three weeks and one week ahead forecast. Seems to suggest the ice north of svalbard has been thinning fast.

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