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Messages - igs

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:54:46 PM »
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...

Also for the very same reason high water temps over large areas) it could happen a bit later but once it starts could be worse than ever.

Perhaps this is what the models expect as well and why a heavy storm is predicted so often in the >5 days forecasts of latest.
We're having our first heatwave of the season here in Belgium after a rather cool month of July. And it's a serious one that'll last for about 10 days, with record temperatures above and around 35°C for 6 of them. This is insane! And I'm curious what the effect will be on the arctic with this complete change of the weather.

Last year we had an unprecedented day above 40°C here, and all that heat went to Greenland back then, which caused a massive melt event there. So I'm curious what effect this complete change of the weather in Europe will do for the Arctic weather.


Exactly my thoughts as well when I heard about current temps in the Benelux and parts of Germany again at this time of the year.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 07, 2020, 09:11:15 PM »
Dude, he’s talking about three different satellite sensors suggesting the same thing (how surface melting has evolved during this summer). What exactly are you talking about?

Just talk to me in a moderate and non-condescending tone and I'm not a DUDE.

If you have to explain something do it case oriented and i referred to the text not the image.

There can be misunderstandings as well as underlaying implications that can easily be sorted in a more civil manner.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 09:07:54 PM »
I keep thinking that with all the energy that went into the system this year, and with the record high temperatures in the northern hemisphere, that a storm like this is bound to happen. Let's hope I'm wrong about that...

Also for the very same reason high water temps over large areas) it could happen a bit later but once it starts could be worse than ever.

Perhaps this is what the models expect as well and why a heavy storm is predicted so often in the >5 days forecasts of latest.

4
The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: August 06, 2020, 01:22:16 AM »
Sorry folks but...

Dog + Coffee + Laptop = DISASTER.

Laptop may not be repairable and as my budget does not run to a new laptop that's me out of action indefinitely.ĺ

Condolences, crossposting here as there might be britons with surplus laptops... Hope the files can be salvaged, or maybe they were in a cloud already.

BTW Gero, the harddrive should still be intact even if the motherboard melted or short circuited.

means if you don't have a backup and get your new machine which looks certain, just dont throw the old machine away without extracting the Hard-Drive or SSD and let someone extract your data.

Also you can buy a USB case that fits to any HD/SSD and can be used as an external drive and/or to extract data from any formerly built-in HD/SSD.

In case of doubt and/or in case of high costs I can easily do that for you, all equipment in house but then for the cost of a courier back and forth you can certainly recover your data locally.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 01:10:18 AM »
Posting to the main thread for awareness.

If you want to contribute to the new Laptop for Gerontocrat >> https://www.gf.me/u/ym3z5b

The dog killed the old one and he needs a new one. Some members asked for a GoFundMe campaign so i set one up at the link above.

Great job and it looks promising that he will get a decent machine, even a mac is within reach LOL

I find this really a great thing, thanks BK to establish the gateway.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:51:42 AM »
My God gerontocrat! That's awful. I wish you have made backups.
Perhaps we from the forum could each give some money for you to buy a (2nd hand?) laptop.

I wish you strength with the sudden hole in your life/routine.
A virtual hug from me.


I'm in if someone will organize it. Perhaps Gero can let us know what kind of equipment would serve his purposes and perhaps you have a paypal account or something similar easy to send some funds.

DON'T BE SHY you deserve any help from us who benefit for so long from the great efforts you made.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 05, 2020, 03:02:09 AM »
I don't buy into this year has more holes than other years,

You don't have to but then i don't get what you're heading at. If you mean to say that Piomas is reliable in summer this is your right to believe but argueing with fairness terms while things finally are about facts does not leave much room for further discussions.

I suggest to just observe futher, I'll do the same and sooner or later we gonna know hopefully  :)

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 07:54:11 PM »
We cannot realy compare a year with totally distinct conditions with any other year as long as the model is flawed.

What are you referring to? Lack of aerosols due tu non existing air travel?

GAAC + Amount of Insolation + Currently being 1. on record + the most probable amount of Ice melted in the CAB from below and above.

If we are 1. in extend, 1. in area and had a way above average top melt we must be on record volume because all parameters say so.

On the other hand as long as a model shows ice where my (our) eyses see none at all that extra amount of ice in volume makes up for the overestimate.

Many models were built under conditions that were very very far from anything we can see these days, the past 5 years and this year in extremis.


EDIT: Above does not come with lack of appreciation for the work done, basically there are seasons where to models are still quite good, just no during the season with lots of melt ponds and wet surfaces.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 04, 2020, 07:19:31 PM »
Iron man on a mission ?

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 06:29:18 PM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.



I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.
This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.


He must be a polititian, telling mostly true things taken out of context with a false implication achieved through semantic tricks in addition to leaving things out.

Probably on a mission with bad motives.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:31:31 PM »
It's funny how the cc deniers always come up with the one measure out of twenty that supports their argument that the ice isn't melting.
If there is a high pressure, then the ice isn't melting, it's compacting.
If there is a low pressure and the ice is spreading out: it's obvious that the ice isn't melting, because extent numbers aren't freefalling.
MFW reading their comments:



Great and important post and it drives me nuts every day, have to hold back with the power of a heavy truck.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 08:27:15 PM »
A lot changes in a week. A week ago a record year looked very possible but now the slowdown and dispersion have made a top 3 place seem likely. Even the thin ice takes a while to melt and as nights get darker peak melting has passed now.

Still a lot of things happened in the Arctic in 2020 that never happened before so 2030 free of sea ice in Summer is very possible.

Every year the Arctic makes us think it is all going to melt out only to surprise us in another way. Slowdown is well under way now but there will be further big drops bringing final Jaxa extent to just under 4m like 2019 but let's wait and see.


Let me tell you, the spring is loading and soon you'll see around century drops again. Don't jump on every cliff or slow down but try to keep the bigger picture in view.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:56:58 PM »
NSIDC extent comparisons with previous low years. 2020 is becoming more and more similar to 2012 on the Atlantic/Laptev side. Surprisingly it leads over 2012 in the southern CAA, and of course in the ESS, while lagging in M'Clure Strait and of course the Beaufort.

My take away from these images is this:  To catch 2012, the CAA & Beaufort must disintegrate this year the way the ESS, Laptev and Chukchi did in 2012, 2016 & 2019.

And so, what do we have now?  A 969 millibar storm in the Beaufort, & matching high pressure over the Kara.

Potential is very high for the Beaufort to be torn to shreds, and a lot of CAB ice to be thrown into the Laptev "pyre".

Is it possible that if all comes true that we would need kind of compaction in the 2 weeks before the minimum as well.

This is rarely discussed but the compaction in 2012 just in time before melting stops in the CAB, at least for my understanding, had a significant impact on that last leg to the minimum as compared to the way sooner and faster flattening of the curve in normal years.

In short, now we get dispersion for the ice to melted in warmer waters and later we need the rest to gather in the middle so to say.

Anyone sharing this views or anyone who thinks that this it totally non-sense.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 02:23:28 PM »
969

Does this allow the cyclone to become one of the strongest summer cyclones? In recent years, only three cyclones dropped below 970, two in August 2012 and 2016, and one in June 2018?

I think it's not really surprising that it went/goes lower than expected by the models because the models do most probably not put into account the vast area of warm open water. I think some of the models reach their limits and algorithms sooner or later have to be adapted to the new normal.

In addition to the area and temps there is probably an even more hidden factor of thickness of the warm layers at the surface. Even if the first two, area and temps are calculated properly, the amount of warm waters in the column due to long intense insolation this year is kind of new.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« on: July 28, 2020, 12:01:17 AM »
Wow! That is a scary forecast for the ice!

Thank you for posting these Freegrass.

True that and just imagine what will happen to the now slightly dispersed ice in warmer surrounding seas.

Area is on the drop and lowest already and won't fall back anytime soon and extent will follow suit with a few major successive drops once the dispersed junks of ice hat a few days time to melt.

Of course we all dunno the weather until it happens but currently it looks that way.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 11:44:55 PM »
I'm not trying to be a dick but people post here putting huge effort and time backing there opinions and thoughts with great depth and thoughtfulnes and you dismiss that as crazy while offering no empirical evidence. 

No worries, it's always the same few contenders that jump on every slow down and/or pick-up bandwagon immediately. I've got some idea about the possible motives.

Obviously a minor slowdown of a few days had to be expected during transition from anti-cyclonic to cyclonic conditions. The ice that now spreads out a bit will need a few days to melt and from that day one the slope will resume to average or below average gradient.

Just wait and chuckle, same happened every month till now after each minor slow down only to be followed by even more rigorous drops (cliffs)

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:40:44 PM »
I can't really figure out why the water is such a different color here, but this hue of blue is absolutely gorgeous!
The bloom is getting bigger.
I guess you could call his a BOE as well?  :-\

Scary, what sort of life lives down there, i know an algae bloom in 2019 off Norway killed 7 million Salmon being factory Farmed off the coast!

Yeah, and the farms kill the wild salmon and their residues even have an impact on such events.

Kind of natural justice apparently.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 02:53:53 PM »
Friv, yeah the weather is warm, would that be considered ridging for the later part of the forecast or not high enough pressure?
However, please refrain from quasi insulting other contributors, being harsh isn’t going to make them change their minds and it’s just going to produce more drama.


The topic/discussion is/was over, moded and resolved, why adding more and more fuel to the fire that was already more or less extinguished. Most really nasty outcomes in forums come from everyone thinking he/she has to to throw in his/her own support or bashing or opinion on personal conflicts. just let it be good, everyone can lose his/her temper for once over time, no big thing and the main trigger has been modded by Oren immediately.

19
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 22, 2020, 06:29:17 PM »
If 2 users are in a direct conflict and one of them is a mod, removing the opponents posts in the right thread by that mod ist "not wise, not sensitive"

Either another mod should to that and best would be to at least let both opinions stand.

This smells a lot like censorship while in each case of censorship ever, the censors thought,
that it's necessary to mute the wrong guys.

Interestingly in most such cases, ultimately the censor was proven to be wrong.

The root of this are the use of coarse language by some and that unlucky post by BK followed by the never ok big red one.

If I were GSY i would appologize for the big read one and if i were BK I would stop defending that unproven accusation but simply admit the glitch due to lack of self-control.

BTW ranting permanently over pages and insisting on a lost cruisade does not imply a high level of competence as well as certainly it's not wise.

The entire story is simply useless and the biggest problem is that both are right and both are wrong at the same time.

What are you guys doing in real life if someone drives you mad?

Do you go each day to his house and seek confrontation or do you simple try to avoid any encounter or, third possibility, are you abusing others to be intrigant?

Depending on the answer things would be obvious and clear, ask yourself.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 02:03:57 AM »

now  Most of the ice pack is solid

2012 Most of the ice pack is not solid.

It's easy to be not solid being spread over several 100'000 km2 more.

The now open water in more southern latitudes will take on heat much longer than eventual leads up north where the remaining ice is and once the ice will disperse into those waters it will be gone for sure.

After all we're lucky if much of the ice won't melt in situ but a dispersion in August will do the job for sure.

Also I do not find it perfectly ok to make statements that mean to say something unpopular or controverse without saying it properly. Normally this kind of posts make all kinds of disruptive discussion brake loose.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 20, 2020, 08:19:21 PM »
I see that Wipneus has updated the graphs in the meantime (thanks, Wipneus).  The graphs seem to be in line with NSIDC area and SMOS, suggesting strong surface melting in the first week of July 2020, but a slowdown in the past two weeks:




And exactly that can't be true, at least someone would have to come up with a very sophisticated theory to explain that.

The model as mentioned so many times is flawed under certain circumstances and i think the issue is that it's based on area and area itself is flawed under summer high melting conditions.

22
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 20, 2020, 08:04:22 PM »
He is not entitled to make more noise in the data thread than anybody else.

Yes, he and Juan are! Period.
No they are not, WTF??
How do you make these rules?

There are many TOP-Forums that have the rule that the thread owner (founder) has a few extra rights.

Further while all reasoning is fair to consider and deal with it, anger is always derailing even the best discussion and in this case means nothing else but righteousness since there is not one single truth here, it depends on the views of the forum owners and if they see thing the way i mentioned above it's up to the thread owner what he/she wants to be discusse and in which approximate manner and withing which borders.


At the end of the story both views are acceptable, depending, but then what I always look at is motives for each stance, there often lays the dog burried. ;) ;) ;)

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: July 17, 2020, 11:13:35 PM »
Dear be cause,

isn't it time to change your "calculation" in your signature "2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021" according to this extraordinary melting season ?  ;)

kind regards Stephan


Not if we reach minimum in January 2021 LOL [JK]

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 04:18:12 PM »
To Friv, and all, please don't be frustrated by some dissenting voices here. Part of the forum is about educating less knowledgeable folks, who sometimes make ignorant comments. These do not dominate the conversation, though they can piss off sometimes.

I will take the feedback to heart though, and from now on I will try to moderate and edit more heavily claims that are in contradiction to common knowledge and established ice science (as far as my limited knowledge allows). Ignorant and insistent posters will have to suck it up or take the arguments to less popular threads.

This is certainly an unprecedented melting season, and the damage done will manifest itself even more in the next two months. Stick around! You won't be sorry.


Just to be on the save side, I'm sure you see this the same way, I don't think the problem is to come up with false assumptions and stuff like that from time to time, the tyring part is the stubbornly insisting part despite all that point into another direction and is shared by those who have seen many seasons in the past. It would be a pity if the discussions became overstreamlined because that as well does not expand the horizons and thinking patterns.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 10:52:10 PM »
I feel like we go through this every year with melt pond draining. A spike of over-excitement when area figures drop precipitously initially, followed by all the contrarian posts and posters about 1-2 weeks later when they drain. .......................

What you say is true but what to you want to tell us?  It's a question in case i missed the point)

I think the exitement is totally justified this year as it was last year and the years before that.

After all we are at record low this year and have ended 2nd lowest last year etc. etc.

So independent of the detailed outcome each year, alone the fact that we end regularly at the top of the list while the average thickness is downtrending and the MYI is fastly approaching the "none left" term is worth the exitement.

Also i do not really know why each time things ARE and not only look dire some try to prove the opposite and vice versa.

This season is a bummer for the ice even if the curve would flatten out today. All what happens is illustration the trend so that we can observe not only formulas and models but verify through real events.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: July 16, 2020, 06:21:28 PM »
The extremes at ever end probably go to far .


Nice to read such true and essential wisdom here. Every person on planet earth who is aware of such things counts and to see it makes my day each time.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 05:47:33 PM »
Every year from 10th position downwards is more than 1M km2 behind 2020 now in extent. Even 2012 is more than 600k behind right now. 2012 obviously had an impressive August, so likely it would start closing the gap at some point. But really, it can be said that 2020 is indeed an extraordinary melting season.


Once we reach a 0.8 - 1M km2 headstart into August 2012 won't make this up most probably because the big fall of extent in 2012 was a round 1M in about 7-10 days and after that resumed to more moderate levels.

IMO the main scenario for 2020 falling behind later in August would be an early slowdown which, due to the vast areas of warm open waters near the pole, is either less and less likely to happen or if it happens will happen on an already extremely low level of extent, area thickness and volume all together.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 15, 2020, 11:02:46 PM »
"Universal use does not make it more correct"

Actually, in language, which is pretty much what we are talking about (the definition of a term), it pretty much does.

You might not like it, but if everyone else says that a duck is something that quacks, waddles, and swims as well as flies...that's pretty much the definition of what a duck is, no matter how much you might not like it.


That's exactly who this planet has been brought to the verge of destruction. There are thousands of examples where the vast majority shared the same opinion and said the same and was totally wrong. One of the worst reasons I've ever heard.


In facte a wise man once said that if there is too much agreement on a debatable topic one shoud be alarmed. Somehow this is not important enough to go that far and I for my part will end it here.


But do not forget that the problems we are facing with the climate are based on human behavior and what we are discussing is interpretation of the symptoms. That means whenever someone brings up an underlaying flaw in human behavior it's very much ON TOPIC and the resistance of most people's subconsious minds is basically proof that something's not quite right.


I did not hear one real reason why 1M should be THE number and yes, the diff. between 0.9 and 1M is small but the diff. between 1M and 0.1 is huge, which is when the human eye will agree to the term "ice-free" or "blue-ocean"

I'm too old to see that day most probably but remember when it happens and observe the dispute about whether that much ice can be considered ice-free and pay special attention to all the excuses that will pop up to explain why it was inevitable to be wrong.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 15, 2020, 09:01:09 PM »
That 1M dividing line is a bit artificial anyway and ultimately it wouldn't be a big difference if a year ended up being at 0.9M or 1.1M km2. I'm more interested in overall trends although each individual season is different and either above or below current "normal".

I fully agree with this, it's totally arbitratrary and because it will be a huge difference between 1M km2 and i.e. 0.1 km2 I strictly oppose a threshold that is so far away/above a far worse real blue ocean.

I followed the discusstion when it started and it went like so often, a respected person came up with the proposal, the minors barely dared to contradict and by sheer repetition and discarding those with opinionion it stuck.
The 1 million km2 originally came from the IPCC  reports (I think)., and is in pretty much universal use.


Universal use does not make it more correct. IMO it's outright false and i also did not hint at any specific source because it does not matter and certainly I'm aware that the value was not created here. It's an "Universal" pattern how such values develop over and over again.


IPCC is huge body that is prone to interest groups, funding sources and political influence. Not a source I trust AT ALL and with good reason as can be seen on a day to day base.

Once they declare the arctic ice-free or a BOE and people look at sat-images and see a lot of ice left, this will be the point in time when the value will get changed or frowned upon by EVERYONE while not it's just a few.

30
The two references seem to waffle on the importance of the storm, though:
Quote
The “Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012,” which struck the Arctic at the height of the sea ice melt season in early August, was not responsible for causing sea ice extent to plunge to a record low just a few weeks later. That is one of the conclusions of a new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
Quote
Arctic sea ice extent during the first two weeks of August continued to track below 2007 record low daily ice extents. As of August 13, ice extent was already among the four lowest summer minimum extents in the satellite record, with about five weeks still remaining in the melt season. Sea ice extent dropped rapidly between August 4 and August 8. While this drop coincided with an intense storm over the central Arctic Ocean, it is unclear if the storm prompted the rapid ice loss.
Is it in retrospect that the storm seems so important?

Now we come into Phoenician territory.

It is well established knowledge, as close to a fact as it can get and then we all can find an opposing opinion to absolutely EVERYTHING. Even that the world is round is still challenged.

I'm out of this, already regret to have taken this on. The question was strange and so was the reply. One cannot really expect to get into a serious dispute about the impact of the August GAC in 2012, sorry.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 09:58:31 PM »
And I still think that the lack of airplane aerosols is worsening the impact of the GAAC.


I (normally) quietly agree with that. For me it was obvious the first week of widespread lockdowns.


Only that the topic usually leads to back and forth arguments which is why I usually keep it for me.

32
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: July 08, 2020, 03:23:46 PM »
Or ignore because it´s Facebook...

Examples always limp I know but if facebook contains a video that is explaining let's say the event horizon of blackholes in a correct way, why would you have to ignore it.

This kind of generalization is never a good idea, it's fragmenting society and and at the end have the verious "religious" groups clash.

If you dislike the video, then why, if it's fitting into this thread and understood the way it is meant, please refreain from ridiculing either facebook or other users with such replies.

Posting a link i received via email that links to facebook does neither make the content wrong here, wrong at all, nor does it make me a facebook fanboy or regular user.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 05, 2020, 08:44:15 PM »
...
The Central Arctic Sea ice area has plummeted in the last 2-3 days. Note that this is NOT reflected in any loss of sea ice EXTENT. Seems to be all about low concentration. But if this continues questions on the resilience of the Central Arctic Sea's ice might surface (again).
...
Isn't loss of SIA, with no loss of SIE traditionally a sign of growing melt ponds 'confusing' the sensors?

Of course, extensive melt ponds across the CAB during the peak of summer would be disastrous for that bastion of stable ice.

But if there are growing meltponds, where would they be?  The black 'dots' of low concentration on the AMRSR2 images have been skipping merrily around the Central Arctic Sea ice for the past week, as they so often do.  Consistent low concentration has been showing up where there IS low concentration... the rapidly failing Chukchi, the ESS, the margins of the Laptev...  Again (sigh} I am probably missing something...  Maybe the effect is too subtle to register on the map?


Wouldn't the Polarstern follow the exact thickness as well as concentration in their vicinity so that we could compare their measured data with all the models like piomas, hycom, extend and especially meltponding versus "really" low concentration.


If wie had access to such real-life data we could save ourselves many discussions about model flaws and model accuracies. Not 100% but at least strong hints, supported by facts, even though from a limited region?

34
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 29, 2020, 10:01:18 PM »
If it really is the goal of this forum to be a tool to reach as many earthlings as possible then the long timers really need to stop attacking new members that are trying to contribute. There's way to much bitching about members on this forum to grow larger. That's why so many have left.


That's exactly what i was heading at and in additon to that people who think either outside the box, bring fresh winds/thoughts and are perhaps kind of multitalents without a narrow field of expertise should be welcome because exptertdom brought us to where we stand, now we need people with the bigger picture who make use of expert's knowledge while experts in one or another way mostly rule and since the just and ethical moves mostly produce less profits the evil share of experts currently prevails ( in the world, not necessarily in this forum but it still shows )

35
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 29, 2020, 09:02:12 PM »

I understand the people who are opposed.  It is just my personal suggestion that I think might be a good idea. If everyone else disagrees, I’m good with that too.

Your point is valid as an opinion or topic that can be discussed indeed. I'm newer agains proposals that make sense, independent of whether they represent my opinion or not.

Let me throw in however a point to consider:

If you would like to keep this or any forum of this kind strictly science oriented, that would reduce the number of allowed posters as well as the long lasting interest of many members.

That as a result would finally lead to an internal discussion and lose attraction to the general public and then we we would end up where every strictly scientific platform ends, a kind of "inbreeding" situation that wouldn't have a large reach.

Now if is understand this correctly this forum should be a tool to reach as many earthlings as possible, as many that have developed an interest on the topic(s) at hand.

What is more valuable in the long run ?

IMO it's that we would best end up with 7'000'000'000 people who care for AGW and other ethical, political and environmental topics to an extend that's good enough for a change.

What do you think, just curious, because generally flexibility in the sense of open mindedness is not one of the most widely spread
virtues all around IMO.

36
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 25, 2020, 08:47:43 PM »
[quote auI I I I I... that's all he talked about...
Way too much ego...

If you make one or several discoveries for yourself how would you share such information with others other than to say what you went through as a process and that would therefore include the word "I" many times?

I can tell you on the side that before my retirement it's been my job to analyse personalities on behalf of my customers and/or superiors and that during this entire video there rang no alarm bells.

This does not imply that your observation is not correct, in fact it is, what i judge differently is the motivation and energy behind it and if someone is of clean intention the word I can become a statement of fact, other than a bragging tool.


Also the word "I" can be used to relativize a statement as one that is "My" opinion but not necessarily a fact or generally valid. Even such a fair statement would include the word "I" "My" or "for me" sometimes, not say most of the time.


Also I agree with you that a careful use of common words like i.e. "pride/I'm proud" or I was right instead of it was correct etc. can be taking many edges from a dispute/discussion therefore is very much recommended. This BTW is the reason why I took this further and ask you the initial question. Give me a few examples and I'll gladly add it to my vocabulary and semantics in a way to drop custom terms and use better ones instead. ( you see how many time "I" are in this little post ?)

Also without ego we won't survive, neither as a species nor as an individual, hence, not ego itself is the problem but the lack of control or the level of Ego-Control so to speak.

We can take this further, I love to share on this topic as well as to intermittently learn some new viewing angles but then we would have to find another place because it's getting off topic somehow.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 24, 2020, 10:10:13 PM »
fwiw - I'm just trying to understand myself. I get that high pressure areas are less likely to have clouds, just wondering if that s/b taken for granted.

Generally high pressure is related with "nice weather" means more on the sunny side, while there are exceptions like inversions.

There is no guarantee though, just kind of a normal whereas the exception confirms the rule as a saying goes.

From experience with high pressure one would normally expect sunnier weather, especially as opposed to a low pressure system that most certainly brings clouds, rain or what we call "bad weather"

38
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 24, 2020, 10:05:05 PM »
moderators with a giant ego

psychological projection


That doesn't say anything whether the projection is correct or false.

Generally this topic is not worth such an exchange but there are people with a political agenda, means biased and not objective and sometimes it shows.

On the other hand I can support the thought that a discussion without purpose other than blaming or bathing in the mud of anger and frustration is not really target leading.

Mostly it takes two or more opposite views that are presented in kind of a short fused way that often is regretted immediately thereafter.

This entire topic is really not worth it, perhaps i could add that "taking sides" most often accelerates and increases emotions in such disputes. I doubt that anyone here needs fans and/or opponents or a "lawyer"

Sometimes I would like someone to know that i share his thought but then mostly send PM. Doing it publicly most often helps to make an elephant from a fly.


EDIT: BTW, opting out of an event does not have to be announced. If a person with influence/power is announcing to disconnect with a topic or a person it's a powertool/social weapon, often abused to bring the others on line.


In ancient times it was the system of "outlaws"

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 24, 2020, 06:38:13 PM »
Sebastian, why would a 'nuclear winter' ensue from a nuclear powerstation melt down?
Seems I was reading the definition only a few weeks ago - can't remember the context. But a nuclear winter would be a result of the vast amounts of dust pushed up into the upper stratosphere by thermonuclear warheads exploding at or in the surface.


That's common knowledge while the question was about nuclear power station not nuclear war.

The original poster either meant nuclear war or he jumps to a conclusion that is definitely wrong.
Core melting does realeas a lot of radioactivity but does by no means produdce sufficient "dust" to trigger a nuclear winter.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 20, 2020, 01:28:22 AM »
Maybe that is why it’s not getting much hotter in America (accept for argument) but then why is It getting hotter everywhere else? AGW should affect everywhere the same, right?


Not right, wrong


There is a lot to this topic but wind patterns, cloud patterns, ocean currents, the jetstream and so much else is adapting to the changes and the effects can be very different in different locations.


Just imagine a warm ocean current that reaches far north would start to "nosedive" a few thousand kilometers more south, means it would reach far less north than before. That would mean a significant cool down in "lee" of the prevailing wind direction.


In case of the gulf stream that would mean a cooldown in Norway and parts of Europe while the majority of the world would continue to heat up.


There are too many possiblilities and we don't know with certainty what will happen with all the various feedbacks of which we dunno which ones will prevail.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 12, 2020, 05:43:47 PM »
Everything looks terrible for the ice but it has before and little melt has resulted. I think it will be another few years yet before decimation. This year will probably be 2nd or 3rd JAXA but ice melt will probably slow in the coming days just to confuse us all again


As long as the ice is not less than 20cm thick it always takes some time to see the 2-dimensional results of an ongoing melting process. Considering that there is something like average ice-thicknesses in given regions it will show once of a sudden and the day before it happens there will be many impatient people trying to convince us that what we see is not real or does not have the impact it should.


It will, there are no miracles in physics, there is that much ice and that much melt and once the ice has melted to a certain extent it will disintegrate on a large scale.


All this provided that the weather will not undergo a total change to it's current as well as it's forecasted conditions.

42
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: June 10, 2020, 09:21:30 PM »
41.1% approve.

What is there left to say?


What's left to say is that this are FAR TOO MANY and it's not boding well when in such a clear case 40% of several hundred million would still support such an obvious evil person.


What's more to say is that as long as good vs. evil in this world is mostly around 50:50 there is NO WAY that anything will change quick enough for humankind to dodge the next cannonball of distruction.


You asked, i replied, hope it was not too offending to the T-Followers on the Forum. As i understood there are some, something that's even more surprising and contradictory to the goal of this forum

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 09, 2020, 03:23:21 AM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The DMI 80N shows the temp curve remaining below 0C. We seem to dodge the bullet of a prolonged peak on the front end.


Patience is a virtue, give it another 5-10 days and the public opinion will turn again based on short term events.


Fact is that if the sun doesn't hide completely and very soon we're in for nasty surprises.


That DMI chart at this time of the year is close to useless IMO.


44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 07, 2020, 08:04:09 PM »
Looking at all the data and imagery currently available I suspect that we're in for cliff of some kind.


Things look primed in many places and the upcoming weatherforecast is not boding well to change that.


I think that one of the main mistakes many of us do and that causes unncessery noise about things that we generally agree, is to add a time stap to upcoming events while at times there are huge delays and gaps between when events become visible at the horizon and until they ultimately happen. If we are building groups that predict the same but for today, tomorrow and each day of the upcoming 10 days, we see things coming but lose too much energy to get it right with the time.


For example if we all agree that we are heading towards a BOE it does not REALLY matter whether it will be during the next 5 or the next 10 years and by no means does it matter in which year exacty.


The reasons remain the same as well as the catastrophic final result of the entire process remain the same and the fact that it will be TOO short term also remains the same.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 03, 2020, 01:39:34 AM »
Just imagine if the Henningsvær club makes it into the UEFA cup and is forced to re-build their stadium into an internationally accepted arena which gives place to (tens of) thousands of fans ?!?


Yeah, yeah, I know exactly what you mean, would just be another of those pittiful things that happened to become so common nowadays.


Glad you like them.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 02, 2020, 10:45:55 PM »
But ignorant arrogance tends to stroke it the wrong way.


While I know exactly what you mean and would tend to the same views, it's worth to consider that:


1) We are all ignorant, just not all in the same fields.


2) People with a vast range of knowledge often tend to impatience, anger and sometimes
.   arrogance while the first two can easily make them look arrogant while perhaps they are not.


3) Who denies point 1) above is ignorant and arrogant himself by definition.


This means all is well but it has to be put into account that in relation to all the knowledge that
exists we are all extremely ignorant, not to say stupid. The only difference is that some are a bit more and others a bit less stupid.


BTW anger is NEVER a good approach which does not mean I'm never angry myself but
claiming a RIGHT to be angry is a form of arrogance IM not so H opinion.

47
The politics / Re: World War Trump
« on: June 02, 2020, 10:02:57 PM »
They'll probably keep America as farmland, but I'm still thinking how they'll destroy their military power. The best way to do this is to bankrupt the nation.


That's quite interesting because I'm pondering over the very same question since years now and came to the not very specific but perhaps close to future facts, conclusions:


1) The downfall definitely has begun


2) The military power will be the last power to fail them but detoriation of the overall power, i.e, number of weapons and later in the process also quality of the same will go down the river due to budget cuts due to economic disintegration, step by step, field by field, with ups and downs but steadily downwards.


SIMILARLY LIKE THE ARCTIC SEA ICE (not funny of course)


3) I estimate a 150 - 200 years fall to an Italian (ex Roman) level, not linearly but steadily.


4) The starting point of this process was somewhere between the end of the "Gold Standard" and 9/11/2001


5) China will be an intermediary power, it will not be able to maintain peak powers for over 100 years, most probably not even that long. So in my opinione the powers in place will be either yet unkknown (not considered to be that in the future) or it will be some kind of resurrected old power like i.e. Europe or Russia after several ups and downs.


What we do not know is the "lucky punches" either inventions, weaponery and/or future resources that could see to a surprising future power that is not an any radar nowadays, but must be large enough to not be overrun in half a day ;)


Perhaps worth to mention that I've been living in Mainland China for around 9 years not everything is Gold what's glittering there, by far not. IMO the country at the current level becomes more and more vulnerable and once people start to be hungry again things can collapse very quickly.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 02, 2020, 09:34:15 PM »
Just because they're so beautiful  :)


1) Canoe in a Lead before Alaska


2) Soccer Playground of the Norwegian Lofoten fishing village Henningsvær

49
The politics / Re: World War Trump
« on: May 31, 2020, 10:13:02 PM »
So in 1984 China joins the rest of the world, around the same time that Thatcher and Reagan introduce neoliberalism. This starts the greatest heist in history of wealth from the middle class.

The draining of America has begun. Clinton makes it possible to rob them even more. Let's give everyone a house, and lots of credit that they can never pay back... And when it all comes crashing down, we just ask them for more money to bail us out. Money we need in China, because there are waaayyy more people in China. North and South America combined only have 1 billion people. Eurasia has 5. Africa 1. But Africa is good! We've been robbing these people for hundreds of years, so let's keep doing that!

The problem is that New York is going to flood. Are we really going to build a new city in America? What about Florida? And California? That place is shaking hard, and will soon become a desert...

South America never really get off the ground, and America will be destroyed by climate change. So let's move America to China! And lets do it while telling people it's all good for them. And when we've finished robbing them, we get the biggest clown we can find elected to stir up some hatred. That'll bring the sheep home! It's been 3000 years... It's time for these good people to find a home after thousands of years of prosecution.

RULE BRITANNIA!


You won't have to move America to China, it's sufficent to move power and other assets while letting the hardware to rot where it is.


While I do not see Trump going to war with China like you, I agree with many of your points in general, details do not really matter in the analysis while of course they do matter during activities of various kinds.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: May 29, 2020, 01:11:36 AM »
Interesting not to say annoying how each time when I and hopefully others have a great read after someone invested time and energy to write instersting stuff like i.e. the creator of this thread frequently does, that immidiately someone has to nitpick/cherrypick anything irrelevant, often prone to opinion and/or definition of terms, to spoil the party.


So I have high respect for those who post reapeatedly such informative stuff who do not get discouraged by the "oppositon adicts".


I for my part gave up long ago and just enjoy reading most of the time, need my energy for my loved ones


 :)

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