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Messages - PragmaticAntithesis

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1
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: October 24, 2020, 09:51:20 PM »
I just found blumenkraft on reddit. Fun times were had!

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: October 05, 2020, 06:27:55 AM »
A bit of a short term prediction, but I think we'll see some record low days around the end of next week covering the 2019/2012 crossover.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2020, 08:18:55 PM »
I'm open to suggestions on how best to display this data. I plan on doing the same for all other months too

This pixel values for 35+ look very similar to the pixel values for open water, so you may want to flip the colour scale upside-down.

4
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 19, 2020, 04:06:04 PM »
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 04, 2020, 02:50:51 PM »
June JAXA: 3.75-4.25 sqMm. Medium Confidence

June NSIDC: 4-4.5 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July JAXA: 3.5-4 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July NSDIC: 3.75-4.25 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July PIOMAS: 4,250-4,750 km3. Medium Confidence

Go big or go home!

August JAXA: 3.25-3.75 sqMM Very High Confidence

August NSDIC: 3.5-4.0 sqMM High Confidence

August PIOMAS: 3,750-4,250 km3 Very High Confidence

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 01:23:04 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2975.0;attach=275040;image

What is the standard deviation of the last 10 years? Are we outside of this range?

The standard deviation of the 2010's is 162,641 square kilometres assuming I haven't screwed up my calculations. This puts 2020 3.8 standard deviations out from the 2010's average.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 17, 2020, 02:24:43 PM »
Of course 3 severe daily drops, a nasty storm brewing, very early albedo shifts and alarmingly early volume drops all happen immediately after I say my prediction was too alarmist! I bloody jinxed it.

Alright, let's see if this counter-jinx works...

AAAHHH THESE CENTURY LOSSES ARE TERRIBLE AND WILL CARRY US ALL THE WAY TO BOE, WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

8
Arctic sea ice / 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: April 28, 2020, 01:16:15 AM »
IMO, this is a low effort, no value added post. Someone should open a prediction thread for the non-science of guessing future weather events.

Your wish is my command!

Anyway, I still stand by my prediction from the start of melt season that this year's melt will be harsh, but not record-breaking. I'm calling a minimum of around 4.0 square megametres extent.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 16, 2020, 03:26:51 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 07, 2020, 09:23:38 PM »
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?

IIRC it's because the thin ice is removed. Let's say you have a set of 7 blocks of ice with thickness 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 3.1. The average thickness here is 1.1 arbitrary units. Then, you have a nasty melt that takes 1 unit of thickness away from all the blocks. Now you only have 2 blocks (0.2, 2.1) with an average thickness of 1.15, as the other 5 blocks are gone.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 01, 2020, 09:29:44 PM »
hiyas,

this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged.  But, as a  response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?

I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.

td

A North Wind is a wind blowing from the North. Of course, anything going from North is going to the opposite direction of North, AKA South.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 14, 2020, 06:11:11 PM »
Alright, I finally found the actual thread. Sorry about creating a clone! >_<

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: March 13, 2020, 10:01:53 PM »
Also of note ELECTROVERSE are a bunch of gibbering cranks. links to such a source do not belong on this forum.
There are data sources that do not encourage visiting such sites and raising their profile on search engines.

Well I dun goofed then!

A maunder minimum would drop temperatures by about 0.3C  15 years warming at our present rate of around 0.2C a decade.

Anyway, thanks for the answer. Looks like praying to the Sun God(s) isn't a viable climate change mitigation strategy after all.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 13, 2020, 07:56:26 AM »
The only unknown this year is the impact of lower CO2 emissions because of the crisis. But that'll probably be insignificant ...

It is worth noting that sun-dimming aerosols being removed from the atmosphere will likely cause a temperature increase before we see any significant cooling caused by the lowered CO2.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 10, 2020, 11:07:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9th, 2020:
     14,296,768 km2, an increase of 15,184 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Ice is increasing again (especially in the area department). I still thing it's reasonably safe to call maximum, but bigger surprises have happened.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 08, 2020, 02:05:54 PM »
I must also apologise for cluttering the data thread. I'm new here, so I did not realise that casual discussion was inappropriate.

Out of interest, is there a place where casual discussion about sea ice area and extent data is appropriate? Is it here or somewhere else?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: March 04, 2020, 11:04:05 PM »
It's cold north of 80 latitude but warmer than average in the lower latitudes. Not a good pattern for the sea ice because the Fram export is high and the thick ice will leave anyway but the land snow is starting to melt more quickly

With the polar weather being quite cold, is it not possible for thick ice in the CAB to form quickly enough to outpace Fram export?

18
Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 01, 2020, 01:22:17 PM »
I find it somewhat fitting that we're discussing the very same reckless short-termism that's caused the Climate Crisis (Climate won't bother us until 2050 = someone else's problem!) in an entirely different context (Loans won't come due until I'm out of office and/or we've stolen enough money to pay them back = someone else's problem!), and seeing how very similar consequences (the problems are now manifesting, and it's pretty much too late to do something about it) have come about.

Might we be able to see the Climate Crisis as a very big bust in out boom/bust economic cycles?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 24, 2020, 02:55:55 PM »
Wow, these extent gains are seriously impressive! I wonder if they'll translate to a less worrying spring and summer this year.

20
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 22, 2020, 01:58:56 AM »
eg the city is burning in some way, which has happened before in conditions less worse than they are now.

That is not a good sign. I hope the cities (and everyone in them) are spared. Stay safe!

21
Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 21, 2020, 06:17:07 PM »
I think 2030 will come just before we start seeing the worst of climate change. If temperature rises continue at a similar rate to that of 1980-2019 (0.18°C/decade), we will be around +1.3°C compared to pre-industrial levels. That's not quite breaching the apocalypse threshold of +1.5°C.

A September BOE may have already happened, but the water will not have had enough time to warm up and stop being the centre of coldness, so the jetstream and gulf stream will both still carry on (though their days will be very much numbered).

Land ice and permafrost will be melting even more rapidly than they are today, but that will only cause a few centimetres of sea level rise, as the latent heat of fusion of water combined with the sheer depth of the ice acts as a very effective heat sink, delaying the big melt.

One impact I think we will be feeling the brunt of by 2030 is increased weather disasters. With warmer oceans, a weakened jetstream, and the potential of wet bulb temperature causing areas to become uninhabitable, I think we'll start seeing a lot more "natural" disasters.

I think by 2030 we'll be screwed, but not dead.

22
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 21, 2020, 05:56:18 PM »
When are the fires expected to end?

I ask partly because it may affect the upcoming F1, but mostly out of curiosity.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: November 22, 2019, 12:00:07 AM »
One can predict an El Nino by looking at ocean and atmosphere temperatures in the Pacific in the year leading up to it. For example, according to the US government climate.gov/enso this year will probably be neither El Nino nor La Nina because the water is warm but the air is cold.

However, one cannot easily predict the strength of an El Nino, as it's very much a weather event and predicting the weather is a nightmare.

24
Antarctica / Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« on: November 18, 2019, 08:56:05 PM »
Big oopsie.

This iceberg is called D-28, not D-26.

And also, it's stuck.

Happens to the best of us!

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: November 13, 2019, 08:45:07 PM »
Regarding JAXA's ice measurements: how do they measure the ice area and extent from space when the ice is under cloud cover? Why don't the clouds block the signals?

26
It's not often we see negative feedback loops rearing their heads. I'll take that as good news!

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: November 01, 2019, 08:38:28 PM »
Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method.

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.

and more on:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/#area_extent

Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method.

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.

and more on:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/#area_extent

Thanks for the answers!

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