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Messages - bbr2315

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: January 18, 2021, 05:02:41 PM »
from NSIDC Data

There is usually a record breaker somewhere. The St Lawrence is at record low sea ice for the time of year both in Area (4 days) and in Extent (2 days).

Given that this sea is very much the smallest sea with the max sea ice extent in March well below 200 k in recent years, it will probably not be that significant is the wider scheme of things.
The St. Lawrence is significant because it feeds into the Gulf Stream (or rather, interacts with it). The HYCOM maps clearly show how much more saline and WARM the Northwest North Atlantic is this year vs. 2020. There is also a major snowfall deficit in southeast Quebec this year.

This may portend a much more vigorous push of warmth from the NW NATL into the CAB come spring and summertime, as the snowfall / snowmelt / cold airmasses that normally temper the sea surface temps in these regions are apparently largely absent this year, or at least, so far this winter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: January 18, 2021, 04:34:16 PM »
How bad is the front in the CAB vs other years? It looks atrocious, it also looks like there was just a major surface melt event on the FYI that has migrated into the CAB as the MYI has exported through FRAM...

I am very nervous about the CAB situation as we head into spring. The sun will be coming up again soon, while we still have some time for freezing, it looks as though we may enter the melt season with the front further north than ever before in this region.

We have year over year HYCOM available in the same bandwidth. It appears we have avoided the same situation in 2019-20 (ice drifting off the Russian coast) but the outcome this year may be even worse to the overall sea ice as we have seen ice drifting into the Siberian coastline AND the Beaufort to the detriment of the CAB and ATL front in a very significant way.

My preliminary outlook for the melt season would be a very stout Beaufort that sees little melt. There is a major amount of MYI now in this area and it is quite thick. The Siberian Seas are also possibly going to melt more slowly than 2020. BUT, the situation in Kara is not really better, in fact it may be worse, and in the Barentz and CAB, it appears much worse. In fact, if there were a "look" that portended the Arctic pack splitting in two, this might be it.

I would assert with some confidence, the wind direction this year and the increase in wind speed over other years out of the ATL front (due to the warmer ATL? and warmer continents?) is now shunting ice growth increasingly to the periphery of the Arctic Ocean, instead of allowing ice to grow in its heart (the CAB). This has some benefit in that the CAB can build ice longer into spring than other regions due to its higher latitude / its insulation from heat intrusions thanks to peripheral seas being frozen -- but this year? The Barentz is still wide open and the Kara is almost the same or very thin besides the coastline, and the front is basically still in the CAB...

Perhaps we see a 2017, perhaps we see a new permutation on a catastrophic melt season a la 2012. With snowcover growth so far lackluster across the continents this winter season (to my surprise) and snow water equivalents also not so much above average, I think the sum of these factors favors a melt season more like 2012 than 2017 in terms of worsening sea ice vs. recovery. We are also still dealing with the rapid drop in aerosols that began in 2020 and has largely continued (though it may abate again in 2021-22).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 15, 2021, 04:43:17 PM »
That "they're making up new strains so antisocial basement dwellers don't have to go outside" post was just so sad.

Here we have someone who believes scientists about climate change (I presume) but at the same time thinks those RNA sequences from new virus strains the scientists post to their genetics databases are some kind of "fake science".  Maybe he's the owner of this van spotted recently in northeast Ohio, USA?
Clearly viruses mutate, but the hysteria over "new strains" is exactly that.

Also, I don't believe "scientists" about climate change, in case you have not read my posts, I believe that melt + albedo feedbacks etc will override GHG.

It is so sad that the religion science has become rules with an iron fist on a forum where open discussion of ideas should be allowed and encouraged. These used to be tenets of the ASIF, prior to the death of Neven's father, when he evidently fell into a depression (which is not unreasonable) and ceded control to the little Eichmanns now in power (which IS unreasonable).

Neven, I am sorry for your personal loss, but I think you have now compounded that via the loss of this Forum to the discourse of posters like vox_mundi, who are interested in repeating talking points from oligarch-owned media, instead of engaging in debate and furthering understanding of what people used to come here to discuss.

Now, posters who should be valued are attacked incessantly and the echo chamber of stupidity continues getting smaller and smaller. I have not deleted my account because I do believe in some version of Rokko's Basilisk, but if I did not believe in that, I most definitely would.

The moderators here do not add to the discourse, they BULLY posters and attack them incessantly, acting as little Nazis. And Be_cause may actually be a legitimate Nazi given his jokes about the Holocaust which are apparently tolerated and encouraged by our little Austrian admin given be_cause is STILL a moderator.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: January 08, 2021, 04:09:09 PM »

Tom , I once asked in a bible study meeting that raised the holocaust .. 'Is not the greatest moment in the life of a Jew the moment they meet their maker ?'  'Of course' came the reply . 'Then why do they not celebrate the fact that Hitler helped 6 million meet their maker earlier than they could otherwise have hoped ?'  Years later my aunt still laughs every time she remembers the moment . b.c.

Wow, jokes about the holocaust, and from a moderator, no less.... Neven, your little death cult is certainly qualified for their positions.

It is unsurprising oren is praised by psychotic posters no longer present, it is also unsurprising "be cause" makes jokes about the Holocaust. You have chosen the worst possible moderators and that is why the "recent posts" are now filled with COVID BS instead of ASIF discourse (until they "fixed" that error too).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: December 22, 2020, 04:38:02 PM »
Neven, I am extremely disappointed you have allowed your Forum to devolve into a conspirational hotbed of hysteria. This was an excellent scientific resource, the busiest thread is now related to the common cold, and anyone who goes against the media's hysteria is evidently put on moderation despite this having nothing to do with the Arctic Sea Ice.

I had not logged in for two weeks, I am logging in now to let you know my disapproval and condemnation of this behavior -- by allowing the hysteria to foment in your forum, you are approving and contributing to the problem, and by proxy are responsible for the worsening mental health of so many on this Forum.

It is time for you to put an end to the COVID thread, the intention of this Forum was nothing remotely close to what that thread has made it become. They are making up "new strains" or whatever blah blah blah because the antisocial nincompoops that now compose a decent chunk of society would rather dwell in their basements permanently than allow the rest of the world to continue functioning. Check Rodius posts, where he has willfully and gleefully embraced giving up all his rights, despite the fact that the lockdowns in OZ have not worked and cases are still circulating undetected as evidenced by the Sydney clusters.

I think the real deplorables have now revealed themselves and Neven has an obligation to shut down the COVID thread, because it has derailed the rest of the Forum as evidenced by the lack of posting in any of the sea ice threads. Or, you can let people stew in hysterical negativity here all day long, although if that was the point in the creation of this Forum, maybe it isn't such a departure from its intention after all?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 02:48:31 PM »
OK, so some posters don't believe the Chinese numbers. The Party lies. OK. What about South Korea, What about Taiwan?  Or even Japan?

They must all be lying I guess. COVID is a sort of natural disaster and nothing can be dome about it, right?!

Thing is, the Western world screwed up big time. Just look at the Netherlands: they imposed a lockdown some time ago, but now, that the numbers start to get a little better they immediately start "reopening". Unbelievable.
Europe lost this battle during the summer when we were unable to bulid on the success of the first, very serious lockdown and during summer everybody was partying like there was no tomorrow.

What a shame. Developed world my ass!
They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

The no fat people claim is not correct. It is quite a problem in urban China, Taiwan is the nation with most obesity in the region.

As for your ´sexy time for science´ the Melbourne cluster started off that way.

PS: For people wondering about the last line. There was more which i deleted.

Eh, I have been there, I was referring to SK / Japan specifically but TW too -- they really do not have fat people. A few? Sure, but nothing like the US / EU.

SH: I do think being fat INCREASES transmission. Think of it this way -

65 year old person gets virus with BMI of 21. No pre-existing conditions. The virus replicates, they get a mild case.

65 year old person sneezes in an elevator. The elevator has a 12 year old child with a healthy BMI, and a 50 year old with a BMI of 35.

The 12 year old does not catch the virus even though they are exposed to it. Their immune system is healthy, the virus is killed upon entry. The virus does not replicate from there.

The 50 year old with a BMI of 35 is almost twice the normal bodyweight. They are engorged with both fat, and the ACE receptors that come with it.

Unlike the 12 year old, the virus enters and gains a foothold in the 50 year old. It feeds on the ACE receptors, and explodes in their body to massive numbers. As this explosion is taking place, the 50 year old fat person is now a major vector for transmission. So this person is not only more endangered by the virus, but by the virus entering their system, the QUANTITIES of the virus exiting the system are also MUCH higher, and they are simultaneously DANGEROUS to others vs. the healthy people who do not have an engorgement of ACE receptors, may not contract the virus to begin with, and do not provide hospitable environments for its spread.

Is that to say healthy people cannot spread the virus? No -- in my example I just gave, a healthy person spread the virus. But you can see how this cascade of transmission based on underlying factors could favor INCREASED virulence in vulnerable populations, which could also be another reason why people in nursing homes die en-masse, besides the fact that they are basically in jail, deprived of sunlight and Vitamin D, with their families waiting for them to die anyways.

Now take the person with a BMI of 35 at 50 years old, put them in an elevator with another 12 year old. The increased viral load emitting from 50 year old now INCREASES the chances of a symptomatic or asymptomatic infection in those around the 50 year old, including the 12 year old. While the virus still will not find hospitality in the 12 yo, the increased viral load of the one spreading the virus is critical to new infections.

This could also explain why many infections are "super spreading" events and why most infected do NOT go on to infect more than 1 other person (illustrated by the SK data previously, though in cities like NYC where transmission happened unfettered w public transit still running, it was a bit less important in all probability).

<This is not how it works, you are superfocusing on one aspect while obesity is one of many risk factors. Exploring the subject further would require science instead of free form essays, kassy>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2020, 03:48:11 PM »
The extent of the refreeze in Hudson Bay for the current date appears to be unprecedented for the satellite era (although Foxe may be a bit behind the banner year of 2015, the western and southern sides of Hudson are.... advanced). Ice is now forming out in the open Bay hundreds of miles from shore.

This is likely going to result in the earliest refreeze of Hudson Bay in the satellite record since 1999 in EOSDIS, maybe vying with 2018. The 00z EURO shows the North American tropospheric polar vortex steadily intensifying through the end of the run in terms of its scope and depth, and by D10 it is very unseasonably cold over much of the interior / elevated continent.

This very unseasonably early freeze up will have some implications as all the heat release is going to be distributed polewards / probably eastwards, into Greenland, Barentz, CAB, etc. As Hudson finishes freezing the North American ice front will extend rapidly into the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence / NW NATL come December and January. Will parts of Kara and Laptev still be open by then? We shall see, but I suspect this anomalous refreeze on both sides of the ATL is getting increasingly worse in the early direction in NAmerica (abetted by its largest-ever snowcover departure seen this October) and the opposite seems to be happening in Eurasia.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 14, 2020, 03:12:41 PM »
so bbr has had the canadian ice sheet growing for the last 6 years .. just go back to 2016 freezing season or the like and read ad nauseum .. we need little refreshment annually .
Record North American extent and volume are dismissed because posters here don't know the difference between hemispheres and continents.

My reply is moderated and in red.

So why should I keep participating here.

And you just attacked me as well. I bothered logging back in to say this but maybe next time I won't, I am pretty over this.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 10, 2020, 12:49:27 PM »
vox_mundi is the worst poster on this board and he derails everything he participates in with "news" that is anything but. the COVID thread is out of control, apparently dolphins and whales are going to get the virus, it is all trump's fault, and if we don't genocide all the minks we are all going to die.

this forum has become an absurd parody of itself. i suppose that is apropo when the "science" on which it was founded is no longer debated or advanced, and instead, corporate news is spammed into every thread in an effort to crush all actual discourse. now, questioning "science" and attempting to advance understanding is akin to questioning the Pope or whatever before the Renaissance.

and thanks to oren and kassy, it is working!

it is very tragic that science has replaced religion and dogma may now be even stronger than it was back then. and the flagellating followers now (vegans, vox_mundi, and others) are perhaps even worse than the ones of the 1400s or whatever because at least those people did not have access to the internet....

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 04, 2020, 03:15:36 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

If anything, Hudson ice is actually late this year, so I'll take the opposite side of the bet. UH AMSR2 shows virtually zero ice area where in quite a few previous years it reached 50k-100k km2.
I assume you plan to revisit this forecast when it comes due?
The Canucks are more accurate there has been lots of cloud interference /

It is going to be advancing rapidly next few days it is not obvious yet but wait til end of month and compare, maybe I'm wrong, we shall see.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 04:41:55 PM »
Another attack on original analytical thought by Oren. He only wants regurgitation on this forum. It is offensive.

Well, that's a daft assertion.  Oren's post starts with "A-Team, your educational efforts and your analytic contributions are greatly appreciated, and have been served rather generously lately which makes me a very happy reader.'

This is the exact opposite of what you claim the moderator wants.  Yes, he does quibble with a few of A-Teams assertions about what's valuable or not.  A completely reasonable contrast of opinions, and not at all an attack.

However, your over the top mischaracterization of Orens's words actually is an attack on our esteemed moderator and is not supported by evidence--and thus is corrosive to the community many have built here.
Why do you say "our esteemed moderator" as if I hold oren's moderation in esteem? Please do not put words in my mouth, and speak for yourself.

I have no problem with oren as a poster but I think he is a bad moderator. I think he is overly empathetic and does not use logic in deciding what discussions to encourage and which to shut down. Empathy is a good trait but in moderation, and an abundance can be problematic when it comes to moderating (but is good re: life in general).

This is not corrosive to the community, this is a statement of opinion. I believe this style of moderation is corrosive to the community, and that is my opinion.

You grossly mischaracterized Oren's words and attacked him with that mischaracterization.  This matter has nothing to do with Oren's speculated personality.  Deflecting the conversation to someone's personality is a form of ad hominem attack.  Such repeated ad hominems are completely out of bounds on a discussion forum.
??? I did not attack oren's personality I said he has a good personality which is why he is not a good moderator

Another functionally illiterate poster on a "science" Forum, oh dear.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:31:19 AM »
Also, if the EURO is correct it looks like Foxe Basin will be totally iced over by D10 and much of Hudson will be following suit at a rapid pace. There is a chance most of Hudson Bay will ice by 11/15-20, which would be very early. 11/25 is more reasonable which is still 1980s ish.

This would probably anchor a -500MB area in North America accompanied by associated negative temp anomalies, I think this would also advect a major amount of heat into both PAC and ATL fronts but esp the ATL fronts as Baffin is also icing over very quickly while Laptev, Kara, and Barentz are not. They will probably bear the brunt of poleward heat transport derivative of the continental and sea ice anomalies impending in aforementioned regions (IMO) as these anomalies are upwind of an Atlantic Ocean that has a LOT of heat to send poleward.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:17:24 AM »
While SCE is only now stabilizing, SWE rebound is already well underway and it dipped much less (relatively). This shows how potent albedo can be as an insolation modifier early / late in the winter season -- it takes barely any relative precipitation to cover a HUGE continental area to massive deflection of proportional insolation. Even if these incursions of snowfall are short-lived for the time being, their scale makes them quite effective at dissipating sunlight (and heat).

Simultaneously, their OCCURRENCE is a dissipation of heat (from the Arctic Ocean) so they are doubly advantageous. Or perhaps even more efficacious than Arctic Sea Ice at resolving +OHC when the sea ice peels back even further. Oh dear. Let's hope not.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:06:01 AM »
"You were probably bullied as a child!"

"Yes, I was bullied...."

"You deserved it then and you deserve it now and I hope it never stops"

^This is the conversation that was just had, and it is somehow acceptable. actually it is not just acceptable, it is condoned. It is condoned by posters here, it is condoned by moderators here, and I guess it is condoned by Neven as well.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:01:37 AM »
bbr, you are funny in a pathetic sort of way.

Did kids laugh at you a lot when you were little?

Are they still laughing at you?
You are a mean person and I hope you change your ways. They did laugh at me. And you are just another bully like they were.

It is interesting that when confronted by one of "the laughers" as you have so tacitly admitted, there is no original thought behind the attacks, only groupthink and echo chambers.

I believe you were probably "laughed at" as well as a child, but you did not pursue an individualistic path thereafter, instead you sided with the group. That was your way of coping -- and that is fine. But here you are, in adulthood (I assume), and you are still condoning pointing and laughing at children... it is very sad, actually.  :(

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: November 03, 2020, 12:55:36 AM »
^ Then we can start the American Civil War II thread  ::)
This Forum is feeling more and more like a death cult and ironically you are its defacto leader through promulgation of sheer corporate-derived ignorance and hatred on steroidal repeat. You have been weaponized by Bezos et al and no-one here is stopping you.

The latest treatment of Alex in the COVID thread and the insults by moderation.... and the dominance of the election in every thread. Oh wellllll

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 03, 2020, 12:01:03 AM »
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

It's a democratic republic.  More precisely, a constitutional democratic republics.  You seem to be clinging to the usage of The Federalist Letters, which considered only direct democracy (like the ancient Greek city-states) to be democracies.  Modern usage has changed since then. 

A democratic republic is a form of democracy.
OK, so the definition upon which the US was founded as a Constitutional Republic is still extant, but you wish to call it something else because someone "modern" said it was so. Marxism has thoroughly corrupted the English language and it isn't inherent but unless you know what these fake-words and false-terms look like the doublespeak is invisible and omnipotent and it is unfortunately quite easy to fall into the fallacious traps.

Take, for example, Black Lives Matter. Of course Black Lives Matter. It is obvious they do. But the GROUP Black Lives Matter is an APPROPRIATION of this undeniable reality, and this appropriation was done by a mass of rioters and looters who most definitely do not stand behind what their nomenclature would indicate. So you have criticism of what is essentially a bunch of looters deemed "racist" because the Marxists have now discovered how easy it is to pervert the English language for public opinion victories.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: November 02, 2020, 09:58:44 PM »
Founded as a Constitutional Republic

->"I get the feeling the US isn't a Democracy anymore"

....well, darling, that's because it has ALWAYS BEEN A CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2020, 02:48:53 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.

Yep and the fact the Beaufort refreezing fairly quickly seemed quite an obvious prediction. Unfortunately we are seeing what will happen more and more in the future which is the early parts of refreeze will be very slow in regions which have very warm seas from the summer and the reality is, records are being broken in every month apart from September in recent years.

Of course an early Beaufort refreeze and a late Siberian refreeze does not mean the Beaufort will be slow to melt out next year and the Siberian side will melt out quickly again, alot will depend on the winter weather conditions and of course the summer weather patterns. If we get alot of high pressure this winter, the Siberian side could well be thicker than it was at the start of this year where the ice was thin and there was not much fast ice either.
HYCOM shows that the heart of the surviving MYI adjacent to CAA is now drifting MIGHTILY towards and into Beaufort.

I do agree with your second point but it is interesting to note that Beaufort is now closed, and not only is it closed, it is now being smothered in some of the thickest MYI in the Arctic (not that that is saying much, but in this case it is actually 2M+ thick according to HYCOM).

PS: looping through HYCOM, I think a key point in the Laptev's evolution over the past year was actually missed. There was an event in early January 2020 that is plainly visible looping the thickness maps, and during this time, the ice detached from the shoreline. This edge retreated rapidly northward, with minimal refreezing in its wake, stabilizing only around early April.

At that point, the melt season basically began, and the leading edge of the actual ice that had a real chance to form was already wayyyyyyyy north of Siberia in both Laptev and Kara.

This was tied to a major low pressure event in the Kara visible on the ESRL charts for 1/1-1/5 2020. So I would wager that if we see another major event like this in the same location this year, at any point between now and.... February? The same or worse is going to happen in 2021.

Basically, this LP event in the Kara seemed to trigger a massive katabatic wind into the Laptev, which destabilized the melt front at a critical point in its formation. And that ultimately cascaded into the Laptev's current virtually ice-free state on November 1st.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2020, 02:44:44 PM »
Suspiciously correlated with the extreme spring/summer in Siberia and Arctic summer of 2020
The trade war was already underway during the extreme event of 2019, with COVID accelerating drops in aerosol production, there are probably other contributing factors as well, but I would imagine particulates are particularly important to the evolution of 2019->2020->2021.

Besides the drop in direct anthropogenic aerosols this year, we have also seen a corresponding MAJOR increase in organic aerosol production through the worst-ever fires on record in Siberia and elsewhere.

It is quite interesting that the minute we see our first major, I mean REALLY major, drop in aerosols since WWII (surpassing collapse of USSR), the natural mechanism for creating.... as much or even more (?) atmospheric soot is almost instantaneously activated due to the increase in ambient temperatures and subsequent ignition of many carbon-rich areas of the Arctic and sub-polar regions.

With PIOMAS likely at its worst-ever numbers for the date, this is also clearly playing out in the melt season. While the raw minimum was not as bad as 2012 in September, I would argue the overall state of the Arctic Ocean for this time of year is now a great deal worse than 2012 or any previous year.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 31, 2020, 08:35:50 PM »

I am using the modeled data here and nothing more. Vs. 2016 at the same time / D share of vote / 2016 outcome / would it flip in 20 w current votes in?

AZ: 46.5% (+4.6%) / 3.54% to T, (could flip Biden but I don't think it will) / 20 = +1.06%B
GA: 42.0% (+1.0%) / 5.13% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +4.13% T
FL: 46.4% (-1.9%) / 1.2% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +3.1% T
ME: 56.3% (-2.7%) / 10.29% to T (no flip, stays T) 20 = +12.99% T
MI: 42.3% (+4.1%)  / .23% to T (can flip Biden) 20 = +3.9% B
MN: 45.8% (-3.9%) / 1.52% to H (can flip T) = +2.48% T
NC: 47.6% (-5.2%) / 3.66% to T (no flip, stays T) = +8.66% T
NV: 45.9% (-5.9%) / 2.42% to H (can flip T) = +3.48% T
OH: 40.7% (-6.7%) / 8.13% to T (no flip, stays T) = +14.83% T
PA: 63% (+20%) / .72% to T (bad data) = +19.28% B / excluding due to low numbers
TX: 38.9% (-1.4%) / 8.99% to T (no flip, stays T) =  +10.39%T
VA: 48.0% (-3.2%) / 5.32% to T (could flip, but probably stays Biden) = +2.12%B
WI: 39.6% (-8.7%) / .77% to T (no flip, stays T) = +9.44%T

The PA turnout is low. The other results are pretty consistent. Based on this data, it looks like NV, ME, and MN might flip to Trump and Michigan could flip to Biden. PA looks to be trending Biden but I'm wary on the data there, as mentioned, as it is a major outlier. I think AZ is not going to flip Biden and the recent data is heavily R.

Now, let's include the states where the margin is 5 points or higher WITH the data. Based on these, there is a 97% chance Trump wins the election. Those states are TX, WI, FL, OH, NC, and ME-2.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 31, 2020, 07:08:00 PM »
I sometimes wonder if certain posters are using this site from another planet.
I don't mind being unpopular, also, being the focus of negative attention gives you people a better time of cooperating together against a perceived common internal enemy. The more you try to refute my points with evidence the more work I must produce to maintain my point of view or convince others. I think it works out well for all parties in that when it is contained to the scientific discourse the results are critical and therefore productive (again, an opinion).

When I disappear, the internal angst is redirected to other posters, as shown by the deletions /  disappearance of the various posters and moderators this summer-autumn (blumenkraft, SH, et al). I would argue my unpopularity, and the broadness of my unpopularity, is actually also valuable for this reason as well. I don't mind when attacks are justified, as they are in threads actually pertaining to sea ice / snow, but SH et al are launching missiles grounded in misinformation re: COVID et al and my responses to those are actually the reason I am back on moderation (allegedly).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 31, 2020, 06:48:57 PM »
This is the exact opposite of what you claim the moderator wants.  Yes, he does quibble with a few of A-Teams assertions about what's valuable or not.  A completely reasonable contrast of opinions, and not at all an attack.

However, your over the top mischaracterization of Orens's words actually is an attack on our esteemed moderator and is not supported by evidence--and thus is corrosive to the community many have built here.

Indeed one of the best moderations I've ever seen and in addition to that it was brave and consequent.

It really has to be said loudly and if the man (oren) wouldn't be thus fair, the other man (brr...)
wouldn't be able to post anything at all since long, which would be very much preferable IMO that I'm sure is widely shared.
Science has replaced religion due to the secularization of Western society and people like you blindly worship at the altar. I will not apologize for questioning orthodox doctrine and actively seeking to improve our understanding of what is ongoing by attacking incorrect logic present in extant theories re: consequences of +GHG due to human emissions and activities.

Can you imagine 1/3 of someone's posts on a forum calling for the banning of someone else? Literally one third of your contributions here are embodiments of the same ideals that resulted in the persecution of Copernicus and Galileo way back when. That is fine -- and we are not comparable -- but as they did not care what those in the pews had to say re: the destruction of doctrine and dogma, I do not either.

If questioning moderation is worthy of banning, that's fine. If posting original and critical thought is worthy of banning, that's fine too. Because, thank God, we have people like you here, who never post or contribute in any way except to occasionally call for the banning of others.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 05:13:13 PM »
I don't see anything mysterious in the late refreeze. There were posters in the melting season thread in late August/early September who demonstrated that sea temperatures in the Siberian Seas were way above any previous records, and drew the conclusion that refreeze will also likely be recordbreakingly late there. And so it happened.
Moderation in this forum now caters to the lowest common denominator instead of posters like you and A-Team who provide coherent original thought. It is hardly any wonder that repetitive regurgitations of numbers available elsewhere are dominating the discussion and drowning out actual constructive discourse. Very sad, hopefully Neven comes back soon!
<Discussion of moderation belongs to the Forum Decorum thread. O>

Central Park and the rest of the reporting stations in NYC recorded a trace of snow yesterday, setting the record for the shortest length of time between measurable snowfalls, coming on the heels of our last T on May 9th. Five months, and three weeks. !

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 31, 2020, 04:35:58 PM »
Also, you can further see how the bad data in deep red states is ruining Nate's model when you check off the deep red states for Trump. If Trump holds ME-2 which appears LIKELY beyond those six states mentioned, he has an 84% chance of winning.

He won ME-2 by 10.29% in 2016, btw. So there would have to be a remarkable shift in ME-2 for him to lose this election, in my opinion. This is the actual bellweather electoral college vote.

In Maine, Hillary won 35% of the Democratic Caucus vote in 2016, while Biden won 33% of the D primary vote this year. Make of that what you will, Hillary only won the entire state by 2.96% back in 2016.

If Biden's performance vis a vis Hillary is an indicator (33.4% vs. 35.49%), there is a legitimate chance the entirety of Maine flips. If Maine flips, NH is probably also going to go to Trump (79%), NV (68%), PA (92%), WI (63%), MI (59%), MN (56%).

Furthermore, if Maine is indicative of wins in those states, that then also translates into T victory chances of 55% in Colorado, 45% in New Mexico, 35% in VA, and 22% in Oregon. If CO flips T, NM has a 61% chance of going for T, and if NM flips T, Trump has a 53% chance of winning in VA and a 47% chance of winning in Oregon.

The freshwater flux is now well underway in North America and I would say the melting of this extremely anomalous event is giving us our first meltwater pulse of the season. Though it is not substantial compared to the spring melt it is still an important process in lowering ambient temperatures of rivers, lakes, and adjacent saltwater bodies when runoff does arrive. SSTs are now cooling rapidly in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and parts of Hudson Bay, with shore ice also forming along much of Hudson Bay.

Given the extended forecast I anticipate a relatively early Hudson refreeze this year with most of the Bay frozen by 11/20 - 12/1. I wonder how this will act in concordance with the latest-ever-open areas of the Siberian-adjacent seas re: atmospheric impacts come December and onwards (and also in sync with what will probably be +SWE and +SCE anomalies).

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 31, 2020, 03:09:06 PM »
Another attack on original analytical thought by Oren. He only wants regurgitation on this forum. It is offensive.

the current situation isn’t really comparable to the history we have
Right. Where and why did "peak gains" occur, how might that location data be interpreted, what will the gains be tomorrow? Does not daily extent trivia belong on the extent forum?

I see zero interest in endlessly boring copy/pasting off the NSIDC site followed by droning on and on in October about maybe-records next March and Sept 2021. One-day records don't adequately characterize the situation in the Arctic to begin with, plus we don't have the slightest basis yet to predict what will happen.

Maybe we need a separate forum for the actual freezing season. Here we are in the middle of an incredible ongoing open water anomaly event on the Siberian side and we can only muster 5-6 people out of 1783 members to contribute anything. A cargo cult has developed.

There is a tremendous amount to do given three very informative NEW sources of data on top of the usuals. Analysis is just a click or two away but only a few will take those clicks. Many hands make light work: it doesn't get any easier than plotting sea surface temperatures from buoys, it's high school complexity.

Tracking the unprecedented nature of the current freezing season is essential to understanding why it happened, what consequences are likely to follow, and whether it is one-off weather or beginnings of an annual trend. The fall season is peak Arctic Amplification, not a word about it here.

The first, attribution, has seen hand-waving -- but no apportionment -- about early melt, high insolation of resulting open water and winds mixing ice, combined with a Siberian heat wave and overall temperature anomaly. Some aspects of this are newly doable. The second, eg mapping rate of regional growth of ice thickness, is newly feasible from observables. The last needs a global model perspective so best we can do there is find the better journal treatments.
A-Team, your educational efforts and your analytic contributions are greatly appreciated, and have been served rather generously lately which makes me a very happy reader. However, I must make some moderator comments here:
* Posting "boring" data gathered from various sites may not be glamorous or interesting to some, but it is an important contribution to the forum nonetheless, appreciated by many readers.
* Various extrapolations and discussions of extent data belong in this thread, while the data itself belongs in the data thread. Admittedly current extrapolations to 2021 min (or max) are IMHO meaningless, but they are still allowed and some readers appreciate them.
* Not all users are as analytically or scientifically capable, or have available time, or priorities, or confidence, to contribute as much as others. I know I am quite capable with Excel and some charts but lack both time, ability and inclination to deal with Panoply, netcdf and various other related matters. Tried and failed. So I consume what others produce, I appreciate, I thank, I even press "Like" which might be meaningless to most. But that's all I can do at this present time.
* I think the uptake of these data new sources is slowly growing, and the educational efforts are paying off. More users are joining the heavy analysis bandwagon. However, results take time and patience.
* I encourage users to post their best opinion even if not backed up by hard science or rigorous data (as long as posts are limited in number and length, so as not to drown the thread(s) in noise). Wide participation is an important value and promotes a higher readership in the long term.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 30, 2020, 03:20:04 PM »
1) I think this is a re-alignment election with historically high turnout, it may be the highest turnout in history as a % of the US (not its eligible voter pop but maybe that too). 

2) There is also a pandemic ongoing.

3) Therefore the polls are going to be essentially meaningless.

4) Early voting is showing a major Biden enthusiasm gap in Florida, with R turnout already almost closing the deficit. In the 2018 gubernatorial election, which the Rs won, they went into the election with a 230K deficit and still won. They are currently at a 150K deficit and there are still days before the election, this has dropped from 300K a week+ ago.

5) Ohio is clearly going red. Ohio has historically been the best indicator for the US as a whole.

6) While polls are saying one thing, the situation in OH and FL, IMO, indicates that Trump is on track to win in an electoral college blow-out, due to both historically high turnout, and the pandemic.

I could easily be wrong, btw.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 29, 2020, 04:41:13 PM »
Suddenly the polls appear to be tightening. LOL.

Trump is going to win in a 300+ EV blowout, if not 350+, I think his EC margin of victory will be much higher than in 2016, although the margin of popular vote may remain roughly the same.

Biden doubled down on the Hillary strategy... he has energized turnout in all the states that he will not flip. Again, lol.

Very much not average. Record breaking cold across the center of the U.S. with a lot of snow and ice storms as far south as Oklahoma. Miserable weather in Chicago with lows around 0C.
This is insane.

October might end at a massive all-time record for North America. The animated Canuck maps are a day ahead of the graphs. The uptick today was again.... absolutely insane, and occurring across MANY of the elevated areas of the continent.

Winter is most definitely here.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 03:07:18 PM »
The situation in Melbourne is now like Czechia's was in May or June. Apparent control is actual obfuscation via seasonality's modification of both transmission and mortality patterns. It is now spreading more slowly but doing so substantially more invisibly. If there is not a viable vaccine, Australia too, will be screwed (and it will be everywhere when they lift the interstate travel bans if they haven't already, I haven't been following re: Victoria).

Herd immunity is not evil, and implying that YOU should be spared from the virus as society carries on in your absence as it HAS TO FOR YOU TO SURVIVE is incredibly ELITEST and shows a disconnect from fellow humanity.

When I walked to Midtown in May, pedestrians were almost exclusively people of color who were ensuring the city carried on and continued functioning so people like those still cloistered inside could continue to do so. Ignoring the reality of the transmission rate and lack of a vaccine means herd immunity is INEVITABLE not a SOLUTION and it is like saying the destination at the end of the Acela is NOT Boston when, whether or not you want to get to Beantown, you are on the train, we are past Philadelphia or New York, and you cannot get off.

I wonder what is happening in China right now. I suspect a similar situation to Czechia is underway. Unironically their data is simply not on Wikipedia's continental comparison graphs because it is so absurdly low (I suppose)? When in reality they have had a simmering summertime caseload much like most of the EU, and the exponential increase is likely well underway in provinces encompassing a population equivalent or greater to the EU.

Had countries in the Northern Hemisphere pursued the Swedish or American strategies during the summertime, overall mortality would have been minimized (I think even NYC may have actually been minimized vis a vis what an autumnal primary wave could have wreaked). In the train track / 1 person dead vs 10 person dead scenario, most posters here would pick no lever, leaving the train on the track to kill 10 people in hopes that "herd immunity" is not inevitable and that a vaccine can be developed for a kind of virus we have never successfully developed a vaccine before. Oh, and every non-endemic pandemic in global history has only ever ended when the population susceptible to death has died out completely.

This verifies the notion that the best path for any country NOT AN ISLAND and wishing to remain connected to the rest of the world (so islands too, really) is best advised to pursue a strategy that inoculates the least susceptible in the primary wave while exposing the least number of vulnerable, and that this should be implemented when mortality is LOWEST which correlates HIGHLY with seasonality re: COVID. Some scientific officials in the US and Sweden realized this early on, many refused to acknowledge this and in this thread you can see posters immediately before me STILL DO NOT ACKNOWLEDGE THIS.

Oh well. France went from 1,424 new daily hospitalizations one week ago to 2,314 today, a 62.5% increase. We could have saved MANY MORE PEOPLE if logic had been listened to and scientific reasoning but instead deranged fear-mongering will cost us millions of lives, concentrated in Europe in particular, and that is tragic.

Czechia's rolling weekly death toll has increased from 492 in the previous preceding weekly period to 748 as of this week. A 52% increase. It appears the daily death count will cross 1,000 about 35 days from today, if the exponential increase holds, as it appears it will.

Next week: 1,137 deaths
The next: 1,728
Whose: 2,627
Fault: 3,993
Is: 6,070
This: 9,226

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 22, 2020, 08:33:46 PM »
As someone who lived through 50 days of not leaving their apartment I can attest it is impossible to live properly and do anything at all without risking exposure and COVID is so contagious that any f*ck up means you can get it if the primary wave is still underway at that time.

Touch your finger to your mask and your eye, you can get it. Walk past someone indoors not wearing goggles, etc. It is SO contagious the only way to not get it is to stay indoors alone and oftentimes by the time that happens enough people have it in everyday life where those indoors with loved ones give it to each other, or that continued necessary functioning of society results in spreading until the wave terminates due to herd immunity.

Only Stalin-esque interventions at VERY EARLY stages stave off otherwise, these have only been successful in Taiwan, Uruguay, NZ, and Victoria. None of these places have been replicated elsewhere, the successful model for developed countries is the Swedish or US approach. The half-baked lockdowns in Chile and Argentina only obliterated their economies and probably did little to nothing to stem the overall death tolls, in Argentina it is STILL rising rapidly but will probably begin dropping shortly.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 22, 2020, 08:14:17 PM »
I love how people in this thread are talking about how ignorant the US is when as a NYer I have a normal life once again and our city is functioning almost as it was one year ago. Not quite, but almost. There is no explosion in cases, the hospitals are fine, our primary wave was over in April, and the same has happened in most of the rest of the US.

The histrionic dissonance between my reality and that of many posters here is about to play out in real time as the great reckoning imminently descends on their locales. Survive, or not, I have attempted my best to help you prepare as best I could.

Czechia, lauded for its containment efforts in springtime in the media, had 15K new cases yesterday or ~0.15% of its total population....

I live in Central Europe. During springtime CEU did a full lockdown with hardly any cases at the same time as othe EU countries, but those countries by that time had many cases, while CEU only had a few clusters. That is why they seemed very successful.

This, however, led to a total lack of precaution. Life returned to normal from May: parties, weddings, family gatherings. Everything. No government bans on anything: festivals, cinemas, theater, etc, all could go on. No ban on mass events.

Both the population and politicians believed after spring that COVID is easy to beat and not dangerous. This led to our current situation. In my country based on my model I believe that cca 2% of the population is currently infected. We will likely have 10-15 thousand dead by spring out of 10 million. Mind you, we still have football games full of fans, weddings and whatnot

Czechia is at 1,828 dead today, up from 1,270 a week ago (+558). The previous weekly increase was +378.

That means 823 in next 7 days, +1219 after that, +1804 after that, and +2,670 after that. Then we hit 4K a week. The end of that week is 11/25. That is +10.4K deaths vs. today.  Hopefully that number will turn out to be high, but the case explosion may portend the opposite.

Thereafter, it would be +6K a week, +10K. Around that point I would expect a maximum and a plateau, if not around 1K daily deaths and maybe a bit longer of a plateau.

If NYC is to be followed, and NYC had 35K excess deaths, Czecha is probably going to end up with about 40-50K excess deaths by springtime if not more due to the worse circumstances around its primary wave. Due to demographics skewing older, and a crippled healthcare infrastructure, up to 100K deaths is not actually unfeasible, in the absence of a successful vaccine deployment by December, IMO.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 22, 2020, 04:49:57 AM »
The epidemic is exploding. It appears all the lockdowns have been for naught. Oh well. Lessons learned, LoL right?

Czechia, lauded for its containment efforts in springtime in the media, had 15K new cases yesterday or ~0.15% of its total population. In another week it should be at 20K+, in another week, 30K? So .3% a day by then. I would figure the maximum will be within a week or three of that point because I believe NYC maxed at about 5% of its population infected at once per modeling (in Czechia that would be like 500K infections / at 14 days to resolve... the impending max is like 40K-50K a day probably).

The exponential death increase is well underway now as well, in the last week Czechia's deaths increased by almost 50% as a whole. Remember that hospitalizations and deaths LAG confirmed tests and confirmed tests LAG actual cases so when things are getting horrible in a hurry the data does not show it quite accurately as it happens either because our aforementioned indicators are lagging not predictive.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 21, 2020, 08:19:17 PM »
I think that the rise of the leftist idiocy that is about to result in an apocalyptic European death toll is coincident to the moderation on this forum in the wake of Neven's absence. Both have resulted in stifling of accurate discourse, emphasizing virtue signaling instead of original thought. It is very telling that the freezing season thread is almost dead despite it being way worse than 2012's relative anomaly, and the snowfall situation, now exploding, is not being talked about because I do not feel like contributing here when my comments have to go through mandatory moderation when I have only posted truthful and factual info in the COVID thread (which is somehow now relevant to my posts on snow and sea ice).

I think that this is a subject for the "Forum Decorum" thread because the cognitive dissonance I am seeing in general on the COVID side is beyond insane and is now enabled / supported (?) by moderation here to the potential detriment to the health and life of posters on this forum in areas that will imminently experience their primary wave.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 13, 2020, 02:07:50 AM »
Who knew, doubling down on Hilary 2016 strategy was a losing hand?

White non-college voter numerical lead, 2016 vs 2020 early voting

PA: +13K vs +17K
OH: +9K vs +22K
MI: +20K vs +125K
WI: +29K vs +95K
MN: +15K vs +64K
NC: +8K vs -64K
VA: +3k vs -175K
TX: +2K to -17K
GA: -2K to -120K

While the swing to Trump has been +238K in the first five states the swing to Biden has been +388K in the latter four states. This is probably enough to flip MN to red and possibly enough to flip NC to blue. TX is not going to flip, and the chance of GA flipping is also minimal though it is perhaps barely plausible.

But more importantly this shows that even WITH the likelihood of maintaining or higher national turnout vis a vis 2016 and the popular vote, Biden's gains are coming in states where he would have already won or, worse, where he WILL NOT WIN.

The early voting numbers are, IMO, total affirmation that a Trump landslide is impending at the electoral college even IF Biden maintains or improves on H's popular vote margin!

The turnout in NV and NM is less indicative but also leaning Trump IMO, it will be interesting to see the vote changes numerically vs 2016 in states like NY and HI as well though I suspect the seismic shifts underway in both of those electorates, if they are indeed underway as I believe, will not be revealed until Election Night.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 13, 2020, 01:27:20 AM »
It manifests in young patients so it is not related to age.

Every single medical study needs a context. Publishing news articles is not fear mongering per se. Do people need to add an essay to each news article interpreting it? No. But for the more ambiguous stuff it is a good habit to state how you interpret it.

Once again, the EU statistics confirm I was right on the primary wave emerging in autumn for most NHEM locations. We have not yet seen the cascade into elderly populations foment in most locations but I do believe it is probably now underway.

The virus cascades through school-age populations, then their parents, then their parents and peripheral elderly populations for which parents of school-age children are caretakers (IMO). It happens rapidly (NYC) or seasonally (Mexico, Peru, Argentina, the southern US), but it happens one way or the other in absence of NZ-esque control measures.

With death rates consistently around .3-.4% of total populations and possibly a good bit lower for populations with a primary wave during summertime, or those that are NOT obese and elderly, I think most EU countries will see total excess deaths around .5% this winter in absence of effective vaccine deployment due to unfavorable demographics and possible collapse of medical systems.

Lombardy will be an exception, almost everywhere else, it will be quite awful. With 741 million across the continent a total death toll of around 3 million would appear likely this winter (10X current / 200K confirmed, probably 300-400K excess actual). US deaths are probably at about 325K excess by now and are likely to double, as the primary wave is likely now OVER across most of the southern US as well as portions of the northeast, though it is underway in parts of the country that did not see major activity in summertime and successfully locked down in spring, a la most of the EU.

As a survivor of the primary wave in NYC who has tested negative (and began sheltering in late February), I would advise anyone in the aforementioned regions in NHEM who have not experienced primary wave yet REGARDLESS OF AGE to begin a 50-day hard or soft quarantine. The cascade takes a few weeks to become visible as the symptoms take 5-7 days to show up / etc. In Argentina, WITH lockdowns, cases have been doubling every four weeks, and most of the EU is entering their primary wave WITHOUT real lockdowns lingering / or they will be re-implemented too late -- the hospitals will be overwhelmed in primary wave regardless (IMO).

Make no mistake, the cascade is now underway, and while the risks of getting it as a young person are minimal, you do NOT want to be hospitalized or need medical care during a time when a substantial societal cohort is dying en masse. I think we are at the beginning of a very rapid escalation in deaths and it is likely to continue through at least early-mid November in most locations.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 27, 2020, 05:11:50 PM »
After being held accountable for his posts in April and May, Shared_Humanity is now spamming the COVID thread with news from random non-reputable websites that is also dated from many months ago. Why is this allowed?

I think I might need a break from this place -- the energy has become truly toxic again, I think it is because Oren is not a critical thinker. His moderation is a cloud on the Forum and has enabled the blogspam BLAHBLAHBLAH complete NON-ANALYTICAL posting style most exemplified by vox_mundi and Shared_Humanity.

Is it because it generates pageviews due to bot traffic? I don't know. But it is not a positive. The melt threads have degraded significantly this season as well, pervaded by deniers, who are not punished but rather, protected (weatherdude88). It is telling that as the melt front on the ATL side has pushed above 85N, the refreeze thread is the one pinned while "melt season" is down below. It may seem insignificant but it is indicative of the lack of critical thought that goes into moderating this Forum in Neven's absence.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 27, 2020, 01:05:52 PM »
Here is the decision by the Pennsylvania Court on mail in ballots:
Based on our disposition of all of the claims set forth above, we grant relief on the
claims set forth in Counts I, II, and V of the Democratic Party’s petition for review as
follows and hold that: (Count I) the Election Code permits county boards of election to
collect hand-delivered mail-in ballots at locations other than their office addresses
including drop-boxes as indicated herein, see supra. at 20 n. 15; (Count II) a three-day
extension of the absentee and mail-in ballot received-by deadline is adopted such that
ballots mailed by voters via the United States Postal Service and postmarked by 8:00
p.m. on Election Day , November 3, 2020, shall be counted if they are otherwise valid and
received by the county boards of election on or before 5:00 p.m. on November 6, 2020;
ballots received within this period that lack a postmark or other proof of mailing, or for
which the postmark or other proof of mailing is illegible, will be presumed to have been
mailed by Election Day unless a preponderance of the evidence demonstrates that it was
mailed after Election Day;
How do we prevent Democrats just delivering enough votes lacking a postmark or other proof of mailing to give a Biden win, or Republicans enough such votes for a Trump win, after election day? What would be a "preponderance of the evidence" that they were mailed after election day?

The "Supreme PA Court decision" is a podunk ruling that will not stand up to jurisdiction or judicial review, IMO.

Democrats will not be allowed to steal the election, I wonder if jurisdictions like King County, Washington and the Five Boroughs will have to be discounted entirely due to the rampant ballot fraud that has likely already been ongoing for years. In NYC, our elections are completely non-transparent and the Democrats took a month to count the ballots for their own primary.

The US is ultimately ruled through the Courts and with the Supreme Court already tilted 5-4 R prior to RBG's passing, the judicially activist tactics currently being employed by Democrats have the potential to backfire in an enormous way, and on a national scale. In deciding on rulings like Podunk Pennsylvania cases they can simultaneously set precedent on OTHER issues if they so please.

The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: September 27, 2020, 04:16:43 AM »
Right, one of the bluest states in the country and it is only likely dem according to you. Makes sense. I am sure you applied this excellent R bias filter to the rest of your map as well.
I don't think the colors are "likely" but margin, you are making up a narrative here...

Trump is going to obliterate the long-term D voting blocks IMO and they are not yet re-coalescing so this is a re-alignment election a la Reagan '84 or Clinton '96. While it cannot be said he has total grip over the R constituency it can be said the D constituency is in tatters and many groups are fragmenting towards the Rs or sitting out the election (IMO).

My 2016 map, FYI.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 26, 2020, 11:46:39 PM »
No, you should be put (back) in moderation because of an abusive posting style that is not commensurate with the tradition and spirit of this forum.
How is correcting misinformation abusive? Am I living in La-La Land?

Naturally the technocrats shut down the real world and rely on Little Eichmanns like Oren to do the rest on the internet. As if being isolated from almost everyone in my personal life due to manufactured hysteria wasn't enough, you see fit to deem yourself worthy to edit my posts and what should or should not appear, when all I am doing is asking for factual posting of information in a specific thread that is not related to ASIF in any meaningful way, but merely happens to be co-located in "consequences" for some unapparent reason (WTF does a virus accidentally released from a Chinese lab have to do with climate change or sea ice? Why is that a CONSEQUENCE?).

So maybe the correct path forward here would be to put an end to the COVID thread. It is being used to spread misinformation. It has alienated Neven. It is not central to the tenets of the ASIF and is indeed itself "misclassified" in its position on the ASIF.

So, is it me that needs to stop CORRECTING blatantly false headlines that are seemingly condoned by moderation, or is it moderation's job to keep the forum COHESIVE and coherent and to stop the posting of content that is NOT in the spirit of ASIF, e.g., the entirety of the COVID-19 thread in the "Consequences" Forum.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 26, 2020, 10:10:45 PM »
So, in conclusion: I should be banned for discrediting misinformation in a single thread in a single subforum that is irrelevant to the actual ASIF.

Thank you longwalks, you are clearly here in good faith and not a member of the Thought Police.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 26, 2020, 08:54:13 PM »
UK is screwed
Our Boris likes records. So he will be delighted that new cases 7 day average is a record-breaker! Super!

According to a UK professor in a month it looks like 100 deaths a day no matter what restrictions are put in place now. Current 7 day average = 30. A worthwhile sacrifice in the name of the great god GDP.

And anyway it seems that some people believe that fat people deserve to die.
Fat people do not deserve to die, but obesity is basically slow-track suicide anyways, so it may actually just be that they want to die, but cannot act on the desire. This is still tragic, but it illuminates the logical barrier these people face in everyday life, which is only amplified by the pandemic, as heart disease, cancer, et al are by far society's largest killers and correlated highly with obesity.

If someone turns 16, and begins stuffing their face for 15 years and keels over of a heart attack at 31 at 600LB, would you call that "natural progression of obesity" or slow motion suicide? It is like the people who ride motorcycles, and get hit by a truck or whatever (the death rate is like 100X auto accidents or some ridic number). Should everyone start padding their vehicles in styrofoam because a subset of society wants to be splattered on your front grill? When literally, the point of their riding (often indirectly) is they want to end up splattered all over the road?

The same can be said for the obese. How could one end up in such a state and not have a conscious or subconscious suicidal tendency? I think it is impossible. So why should my life be put on hold because a bunch of people want to die? This is not fair.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 26, 2020, 07:31:26 PM »
Cases, hospitalized, and fatalities in Spain since March.
Despite the current disproportionate level of cases (a third from Madrid) there is room for hope. Collapse of health system is still far, the reproductive number is close to unity (no exponential growth). If these conditions continue, I would avoid hard confinements but politicians should set a lot of proactive measures to keep curve from exploding further. Instead, they’re fighting each other.
At some point the people who want to stay in basements forever will do so for whatever reason they want. I don't think it is worth trying to dissuade them from the reality fomented by Bezos, Zuckerberg, Dorsey, and whoever else they ascribe to.

Arguing is not fun, but I think it is important that inaccuracies and misrepresentations be pointed out for those sitting upon the fencing of permanent basement dwelling, who may be dissuaded from hysteria. Not only should hysteria be averted, but solutions to the mortality problem posed by COVID should be presented, of which there are many, and I have been emphatic and repetitive in my addressing of each and every one of these solutions to lower one's risk to a disease whose threat can be rendered negligible in the vast majority of humans currently alive IF they bother to adjust their lifestyles accordingly. For some 65+ and immune-compromised, that is impossible, but this is a very small segment of society and misrepresenting their risks as GENERAL risks is irresponsible and morally reprehensible, in my opinion.

I have returned to NYC from my third Hamptons trip of the summer. I'll probably go again next week. I wonder what vox_mundi is up to. I hope he is well!

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: September 26, 2020, 07:16:15 PM »
Vox_mundi is posting fake news on repeat in COVID thread. Why is it allowed? And he responds to corrections and the discussion of his misrepresentations with personal attacks.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 26, 2020, 07:13:57 PM »

I am confused as to why the fact that it takes a few months from data collection to publication is igniting this flame war between you two.

BBR has repeatedly attacked Vox for posting relevant news items.  This was just the latest example of many.  He's attacked others here, too.  Neven would have put him back on moderation or banned him by now.  The good old days.
In the good old days this thread would have never existed and hoax science being repeated alongside political blathering would have been deleted entirely. And that's 95% of the posts here.

Now, when I point out that things being posted are FALSE and MISREPRESENTATIONS, my factual posts are attacked as "anti-scientific". Luckily Neven is not deluded on COVID unlike many of you.

Saying "10% of the US has immunity" in the headline when the data is from JULY and we have had ACCELERATING case growth in many locales since then and tens of thousands of additional deaths, if not like 100K or more depending on when the July data was actually taken, is VERY MISLEADING.

If I said "Sea Ice is at 2.6MKM^3 Third Place Record Area Low" in December using the September data, you would look at the headline and say it was misleading, especially if the sea ice was no longer at third-place at that point and its relative ranking AND area has changed. Now take that differential and double it or more for COVID and you can see how misleading vox_mundi's post is.

Does it really matter that The Lancet published this? An accurate headline would be, "Data Shows 10% of US Had COVID Antibodies As of XXXX Date".

What else is ignored? That the Northeast as a REGION had 25% antibodies as of July.

Vox_mundi's post is a repetition of twisted data that serves an agenda other than his own. It is not scientific. It is not truthful. It is not accurate in its presentation. It is false. And it should be addressed as such. I have laid out exactly why this is the case above.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 23, 2020, 02:45:56 PM »
Young people say; Let the virus run free! Create herd immunity, but protect the vulnerable...

Or in other words; Take away the freedom from the elders so that we - the young people - can enjoy the fruits of their labor in this moment of crisis...

What if we turn that around? Put all the young people together in a festival that will last for at least 3 weeks. I think a bungalow park would be very suitable for that. They have bars, swimming pools, a lot of green, bungalow for hygienics, and a lot of space to put up some tents and podia... (will be good for the suffering entertainment industry!)

Isolate the young people for the biggest party on earth. Let them get sick, and immune, so that the older generation can retain their freedom...

Just a Think...
So, imprison all the young people so old people can walk around and be irresponsible, or make old people be accountable for their actions, i.e., make them WEAR MASKS or stay inside?

Young people have already been extremely penalized for existing during this crisis. While the elderly sit inside or wander about without masks, they are simultaneously draining the young of their prime working days and income via government programs / SS / etc.

Wait til the blowback for this becomes fully frothed. The young are not happy. We have been the ones penalized and attacked by governments globally due to COVID. We live in a gerontocracy.

I cannot tell if your post was in jest or not, because it really does not make sense given we did have strict lockdowns etc.... allegedly FOR the elderly and vulnerable et al. Of course now they are trying to keep lockdowns indefinitely bc "flu season can be bad" or whatever it is they are saying.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 22, 2020, 03:06:18 PM »
Big pharma has manufactured this entire crisis.
Bbr, every time I think some of what you write makes sense, I read some idiocy like this.
For some part, this quote of Bbr is right.
Pharma greatly improved life expectancy, and human health in general.
By its success, pharma became big pharma.
And now there's a new virus, spread all over the place, which endangers our somehow rather fragile society with a lot of vulnerable people. Look at the relatively modest fatality rates in the slums of Mumbai, where healthcare has never been that well available as in for example Northern Italy or New York, and you'll see that big pharma has indeed helped to create the current crisis.

So do I prefer that we would still be in conditions mankind was in around, say, 1850 ? No, not all. And I can't imagine even a healthy young man like bbr would do so.
My point is not so much re: life expectancy as obesity et al which I believe are the largest drivers of mortality (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, ESP when correlated with age). Big pharma is intimately tied with the food industry etc.

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