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Messages - glennbuck

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 10:02:56 PM »
JAXA AMSR2 Arctic Sea ice average thickness, this was not available for the 4th of August and it looks like it set a new seasons record low beating 2015,s record low, that was set later in August. Moved back up today on the 5th August.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 04:41:20 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 5th,  3,506.560 km^2. NSIDC Daily Area.

lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)

Consequences / Re: Global Dimming - The aerosol masking effect
« on: August 06, 2020, 10:14:43 AM »
I think it's called "weather".
July was a different story than June.
Meanwhile, temperature anomalies keep going down, in both NH and SH.

Many records broke this year without an El Nino like we had in 2016.

Averaged as a whole, the January–June 2020 global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.07°C (1.93°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F). This was only 0.05°C (0.09°F) shy of tying the record warm January–June of 2016. According to a statistical analysis done by NCEI scientists, the year 2020 is very likely to rank among the five warmest years on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 06, 2020, 02:39:24 AM »
Will be able to buy a supercomputer at this rate, i use a rubber keyboard for spills and a desktop is safer and easy to upgrade compared to a laptop with two monitors is nice. Great this is sorted and Matt can get on with his great job we all appreciate your awesome work. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 10:52:47 PM »
NNE of Greenland  breakup is accelerating today. As far as 300 Miles North of the North Greenland coast.

The politics / Re: Why CHAZ failed
« on: August 04, 2020, 12:15:00 AM »
Gun sales are booming as the Covid-19 pandemic wrecks the economy and volatile protests dominate the news. Handguns are flying off the shelves. And ammo is so hot, it’s hard to keep in stock.

The gun industry is experiencing a revival amid the worst economic contraction in history, fueled by fears of coronavirus, crime and civil unrest. Guns were in demand during the economic turmoil of the second quarter, as gross domestic product experienced a 33% plunge.

“This is unprecedented,” said Larry Hyatt, owner of Hyatt Guns in Charlotte, N.C. He said that sales doubled in March, after gun stores were declared essential businesses.

<removed tracking code from the link - BK>

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 03, 2020, 10:19:52 PM »
To all the anti-vax, anti-mask, anti-everything people, this is the logical conclusion of “freedom”.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 11:49:25 PM »
Dr John Campbell has looked at peer reviewed research papers and Obesity is the highest risk factor for hospitalization with Covid-19 and deaths, followed by heart disease and diabetes. As western countries have higher rates for these three Comorbidities, the UK and USA has 30% and 40% Obesity

Higher diabetes rates and Obesity compared to Japan and South Korea/Asia. Factor in the UK and USA governments are more bothered about the Economy than saving lives in the Pandemic, opening bars and restaurants too soon. The smaller Democratic Socialist countries,Norway/Switzerland/Austria/Denmark/Iceland/New Zealand etc have handled the Pandemic far better.   

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 02, 2020, 03:39:38 PM »
The White House has made an ad about how things are going, and it’s surprisingly honest and informative.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 01, 2020, 10:08:05 PM »
The Area around Cape Morris Jesup is breaking up all the way across to the Wandel Sea!

You can see at the top of picture in the Wandel Sea open water around 342 miles from the North
Pole, Cape Morris Jesup is 442 miles from the North Pole.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 01, 2020, 09:45:57 PM »
Bit of good news for the day  :D

Climate change hits back, Svalbard coal mine flooded by melting glacier

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 01, 2020, 04:33:23 PM »
Covid-19 is serious for people with comorbidity and the very old. The History books will use Covid-19 as the cause of the Second Great Depression, deflecting blame from the Capitalist class, we never recovered from the 2008 Economic crash by 2019 and a Depression was already baked into the cake.

Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 31, 2020, 10:51:43 PM »
Over the past year more scientists have spoken candidly about the implications for humanity of recent climate observations and research. They have begun to warn more clearly of the potential and even likelihood of societal collapse due to the direct and indirect impacts of dangerous climate change. These warnings are being lost in the winds of news cycles and drowned out by scientists who prefer assessments that are less challenging to humanity and our elites. Therefore, in one place, here are some of the latest interpretations of the science from scientists who do not hold back.

Dr. Graham Turner was formerly a senior scientist with an Australian federal government agency responsible for scientific research (CSIRO). He told Asher that: “There’s an extremely strong case that we may be in the early stages of a collapse right at the moment. Vested interests and corrupt politicians combined with a population happy to deny problems overwhelm those that are trying to promulgate truth and facts.” Dr. Anitra Nelson, a principal fellow at the University of Melbourne concurred: “I do actually think we’re already into the collapse and it’s just likely to get worse and more quickly worse as we go.”

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 11:56:56 PM »
What will be left on the 5th August!

Link below to the 5th august ice thickness.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 11:21:31 PM »
Arctic sea surface temperature.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:07:04 PM »
Yes the climate crisis is the big one that throws a spanner in the works. Science is clear it has been giving us warnings for 40 years.

The Holocene extinction, otherwise referred to as the sixth mass extinction or Anthropocene extinction, is an ongoing extinction event of species during the present Holocene epoch.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 28, 2020, 06:09:59 PM »
Give it a year and see where we are the future is quite Appocalyptic IMHO, Pandemic, Great Depression. Wars, Famine, Civil War, Climate Crisis, Presidential election, Brexit. We never recovered from the 2008 Crash  and now the SHTF.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: July 28, 2020, 04:33:40 PM »
So basically the West is in for a golden age as the ongoing boom in the developing world leaves them completely dependent on imports and currency reserves. While these societies may collapse into chaos and Europe will too as they don't have an ocean on both sides, I think this is pretty advantageous for the US.

I like this quote by Terence Mckenna

“The apocalypse is not something which is coming. The apocalypse has arrived in major portions of the planet and it’s only because we live within a bubble of incredible privilege and social insulation that we still have the luxury of anticipating the apocalypse.”

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 03:51:02 PM »

Increasing amounts of ocean heat in the northern hemisphere are destabilizing the weather. The lower atmosphere is anomalously thick in the tropics and anomalously thick at the north pole because there's excess heat in the tropical and temperate oceans and the polar seas. That's why we are seeing more blocking highs and more warm air domes over the north pole.

Lockdowns, Australia 2019/2020 record Bushfires, Siberia Bushfires, record temperatures, a lot of there Models will not of accounted for this. As the Climate Crisis increases each year there Models will not be able to keep up with the more unpredictable/chaotic weather anomalies. Observations on a daily basis like ASIF will become more accurate and a better measure than the Models predictions IMHO.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:21:46 AM »
While BBR is correct in that fires are a natural part of Australia, the scale of the 2020 fires is not natural.

A lot of animals died in the fires. Animals are an important part of recovery and they are not there. Research is still being conducted concerning regrowth, but that will take time, obviously.

Nearly 3 billion animals were killed or displaced by Australia’s devastating bushfire season of 2019 and 2020, according to scientists who have revealed for the first time the scale of the impact on the country’s native wildlife.

The Guardian has learned that an estimated 143 million mammals, 180 million birds, 51 million frogs and a staggering 2.5 billion reptiles were affected by the fires that burned across the continent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 06:14:37 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 06:08:12 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:52:47 PM »
Sea Ice Prediction Network for September outlook.

Consequences / Re: Temperature records (data)
« on: July 27, 2020, 12:17:26 PM »
Taipei had 39.7℃ Friday, making it the highest temperature since records began 124 years ago. On the previous day, the southwestern end of Japan's Yonaguni had all-time record high of 35.5℃.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 07:05:14 PM »
We're 5 days ahead of 2019, 7 days ahead of '12, between 9-14 days ahead of '11-'18.
The thicker dashed blue line is the average of 2001-'05, we're >A Month ahead.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: July 25, 2020, 01:48:16 AM »
I will guess 2M KM^2 extent and 1.2M KM^2 area.

I think 2021 and 2022 will rebound a la 2013 and 2014. But this summer is going to be terrible. The worst impacts of the aerosol and contrails will result in worst-ever melt ponding this spring, and worst-ever melt this summer. However, they will also result in an excellent refreeze come winter 2020-21, and a brutal winter across the mid-latitude and well-populated areas of the continents.

The ice will survive this summer in a belt close to the CAA and Beaufort. Hudson Bay will melt out very late. Everything else will go early and quickly.

I give this post an A+

Seems we are both at the opposite ends of the story but with a similar outcome, i see a large rise in temperatures over the next ten years and you see a mini ice age, both outcomes cause massive famine and Billions effected from crop failures. We are mostly on the same page on this Forum that this year could produce a record melting of the Arctic 2m^ km2 to 3m^ km2 and 50% of the Forum project a BOE in the next 5 years in a poll from 2018, so it is strange times we live in, 2020 is a crazy year for the planet.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:18:44 PM »
< Deleted, ice age speculations are banned. Sorry, not your fault. O>

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 01:04:05 AM »
To put some content around the amount of extent loss that has occurred over the past 24 days from June 29 through July 22, the table below shows the total extent loss for each year starting in 2001.  It also lists the percentage drop of the extent that year.

2020 leads in both extent loss (with more that 3.06 million km2) as well as percentage loss (33.4%). 

In terms of extent loss, 2007 and 2013 with losses of approximate 2.7 million, are about 300k behind 2020.  After that, the next closest year was 2019 with 2.44 million extent loss, approximately 600k behind 2020 for that period.

Year    Extent Loss    Percent Decline
2001   -1,630,836   -16.2%
2002   -2,148,569   -20.4%
2003   -1,945,950   -18.9%
2004   -1,604,575   -15.6%
2005   -2,038,679   -20.9%
2006   -1,806,967   -19.1%
2007   -2,716,544   -27.9%
2008   -2,096,592   -21.1%
2009   -2,406,101   -24.0%
2010   -1,559,462   -17.3%
2011   -2,364,505   -25.8%
2012   -2,240,915   -24.1%
2013   -2,725,735   -27.7%
2014   -1,998,228   -21.4%
2015   -2,325,684   -24.2%
2016   -1,956,457   -21.5%
2017   -2,145,284   -23.3%
2018   -2,032,152   -21.4%
2019   -2,444,626   -26.6%
2020   -3,063,773   -33.4%

Great info, i was looking at something similar 1st July to 31st July extent loss, from the JAXA data.
2007 -3,090,000
2008 -2,640,000
2009 - 2,920,000
2010 - 2.070,000
2011 - 2.680,000
2012- 2.840,000
2013 - 2,750,000
2014 - 2,180,000
2015 -2,870,000
2016 - 2,450,000
2017 - 2.480,000
2018 - 2,850,000
2019 -2,950,000
2020- 2,704,000 on 22nd of July with 9 days to go!

80,000 km^2 for 9 days average would finish 2020, 1st July-31st July at 3,424,000 million km^2 extent loss.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 10:03:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 22nd, 2020:
     6,116,303 km2, a century drop of -117,789 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.

2020: -926K km2 versus 2012.   :P

Another 117k drop or above and we'll go dipping under 6,000,000km2, I feel like there might be more century drops, let's hope a high does not develop or a GAC because then the ice will be truly screwed.

It is looking like below 3 million km^2 is likely this year. If we had a GAC which i would not bet against with the crazy year we are having in 2020, we could go below 2 million KM^2! Setting the Arctic up for a BOE in the next few years  :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 23, 2020, 12:28:31 AM »
This data from 21st of July 2019 was within 20,000 km^2 of the September minimum.Following chart has September 2020 at 3.24 million km^2
Please, get these tables  out of this thread, they occupy too much space, please simply add a link to the post of the data thread

For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  24.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 11:32:31 PM »
Implications of a compact ice pack:

According to area and volume we are currently in 3rd position, and not a huge way ahead as we are for extent.  This implies the reason for the low extent is primarily compaction and not melt.  It implies that if the ice becomes as disperse as other years extent will also be 3rd in position.  With the weather suddenly turning favorable for ice retention, a new record is out of reach from 3rd position.

Lots of sunlight is being absorbed wherever the ocean is not covered in ice.  During this year that ocean is mostly on the fringes.  A large part of this heat energy will still be there come minimum, and the energy will be used for delaying the freeze season and not for causing a low minimum.  In contrast in a year like 2012 lots of sunlight is being absorbed by ocean within the ice pack which is then available for melting ice  within days or weeks as the ice moves around and over this water that had been warming in the sunlight.

And yes I expect the compaction to also result in some thickening due to ridging/stacking etc.  Whether this is enough to be important I don't know.  But do note that it is well accepted that ice can only grow to about 2m through thermodynamic processes, and ice only grows thicker than this through some form of ridging/compaction process.

This data from 21st of July 2019 was within 20,000 km^2 off the September minimum.

This data on July 21st 2020 has September 2020 at 3.24 million km^2 to 3.29million^2 from the five to ten year average.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 10:18:27 PM »
The more I look at it, I think that 2020 is going to struggle to beat 2019. The ice is so compact at this point and I also think that the Beaufort has really avoided the absolute worst. There's just such a 'surplus' of ice in that region compared to last year I just don't foresee it overtaking it.

I'd be happy to be wrong, but after going back and comparing 2012 and 2019, the ice was so much more dispersed then.

What about areas with black ice? Were these in 2012 or 2019 up to 86 degrees north latitude?
How thin is the ice in these areas? Could the current weak cyclone damage it?

Gerontocrat's update says For the minimum to be above 4.0 million km2,  remaining melt needs to be  24.0% or more below the previous 10 years average remaining melt.

Currently we are 17.2% more than the 10 year average

So to get above 4.0 million km^2 we need a 41.2% swing!

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