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Science / Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero

« on: January 20, 2021, 06:05:24 PM »

No, that is not the case with Arctic sea ice. We will lose the summer ice, but not even close to year-round.  Also, summer sea ice can come back if temperatures cool. So not being on an RCP8.5 track is very relevant.

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Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release

« on: November 29, 2020, 11:33:53 PM »

[The underwater sources are likely to increase in number and provide more emissions with further warming. However, the pycnocline, increased stratification, anaerobic/aerobic oxidation, and more productive phytoplankton are likely to result in more of a steady feedback than a huge pulse

The pycnocline/stratification means nothing to methane bubbles.
In really deep waters the methane gets dissolved but in shallow arctic waters the bigger bubbles go straight up.

There is no steady feedback there but the important question is how much can come out and what is actually happening inside. It´s a huge pile of ice and frozen and not so frozen organic matter combining with whatever bacteria and viri can do down there.

We do not actually know how big the problem is and it will grow with however much we will grow our carbon pulse.

This is incorrect. The bubbles are for the most part dissolved/oxidized in the water column, even in the shallow Arctic waters. The atmospheric CH4 levels have not been affected by Siberian Shelf emissions, as a number of exhaustive studies have shown

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Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release

« on: November 15, 2020, 11:50:13 PM »

New upload from JHAT covering the ISSS preliminary research on the current state of methane release from the ESAS.

I feel compelled to point out there's been substantial pushback on this. The words from Paul Overduin, who's led expeditions to the ESAS since 2005, are particularly noteworthy: https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/guardian-article-on-arctic-methane-emissions-lacks-important-context-jonathan-watts/

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