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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 13, 2019, 03:43:19 PM »
Japan's Hayabusa-2 spacecraft has departed from a faraway asteroid and begun its yearlong journey back to Earth.
The Hayabusa-2 is expected to return to Earth in December 2020, dropping a capsule containing the rock samples in the South Australian desert.
While asteroids are some of the oldest objects in space, Ryugu belongs to a particularly primitive type of space rock, and may contain clues about the conditions and chemistry of the early days of the Solar System - some 4.5 billion years ago.
[1st link to BBC article; 2nd link to Wikipedia article]

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 11, 2019, 08:03:45 PM »
Popcorn led me to Switched On Bach

and then

I remember playing my new (just released) Switched On Bach record at high volume on my decent stereo in my university dorm room.  The outside wall was mostly a steel sheet and acted like a speaker (noticeable on the outside).  It was quite glorious (if you liked this sort of music...)

I also once read to all, via an amplified mike, the last chapter of Through the Looking Glass, word for word backwards [Chapter XII. Which Dreamed it? ] (from the end - starting with "END THE: Dream a but. It is, what, Life?"). [I must have been popular ...  ::)] [I didn't need drugs...]

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 10, 2019, 06:36:53 AM »
Dire Straits - Telegraph Road (FULL)(1982)


The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 09, 2019, 07:50:06 PM »
Song of Peace can be found in many different church hymnals.  Here it is sung by Mary Travers (of Peter, Paul and Mary)

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 09, 2019, 07:24:40 PM »
I just listened to nanning's "Martine Bijl - Er Zijn Daar Geen Meikevers Meer (nl) (1974)" (November 4), found the lyrics and ran Google Translate on them, and read the translation as I listened a 2nd and 3rd time.  It's a pretty song to listen to, and very sad.  Thanks.

"There are no May bugs there anymore"

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 09, 2019, 06:23:18 PM »
If this is Western Australia, it's the first time I have seen wildfires in the Indian ocean?
Well, North could have been down with the wind blowing smoke westward over the Indian Ocean (clearly the land is to the left of the white like line - I like to think it is 'surf' and not a mapmaker's addition* :P).  But it looks like 'prevailing winds', and they would be from the west, not to the west.

And isn't that Fraser Island near the image's top?  Who moved it from Queensland to Western Australia?  :o  Does blumenkraft have powers we don't know about?  :D

* - I remember from some years ago an article somewhere that said the image shown was "exactly what folks on the International Space Station would see."  The image was of the eastern part of North America, with white state boundaries included.  I've seen big white plastic sheeting "X"s on the ground for 'ground proofing' air photography (I presume).  It must have been some project outlining all the eastern states with the stuff!   ::) :P

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:49:34 PM »
Thanks, Richard: I think you've referenced the 'science' I was looking for.  (I have functionally no thermodynamics formal education.)  Can you say more about the melting process?  About how and why the temperature gradient changes in ice as it melts? 

As I wrote these questions, I realized that for freezing sea ice, all the heat exchange is from the water, through the ice and into the air.  During the melting season, the heat exchange is from both the 'air' and from the water below.  In a colloquial sense, the 'cold' enters the ice only from above and leaves the ice in both directions.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 07, 2019, 03:43:22 PM »
Think the end of the century rises is close. Maybe 50k climbs now. The whipped cream has all been stirred up now and will just slowly spread out in the coffee cup
That's awfully cold coffee!

Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: November 07, 2019, 03:05:40 PM »
Over the course of three years, NASA flew a plane carrying gas-imaging equipment above California and made a discovery that surprised even the state’s own environmental agencies: A handful of operations are responsible for the vast majority of methane emissions.
I think this is great news!  It is far easier, politically and physically, to fix a few big problems (of this nature) than it is to fix a very large number of so-so problems.  (Stopping the 10 speeders going 20 units over the posted school zone speed limit is easier than stopping the 10,000 going 5 units over. [pick your units: mph, kmph])

Asynchronous Antarctic and Greenland ice-volume contributions to the last interglacial sea-level highstand

    Eelco J. Rohling, Fiona D. Hibbert, Katharine M. Grant, Eirik V. Galaasen, Nil Irvalı, Helga F. Kleiven, Gianluca Marino, Ulysses Ninnemann, Andrew P. Roberts, Yair Rosenthal, Hartmut Schulz, Felicity H. Williams & Jimin Yu

Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 5040 (2019)
Finally, we infer intra-LIG sea-level rises with event-mean rates of rise of 2.8, 2.3, and 0.6 m c−1. Such high pre-anthropogenic values lend credibility to similar rates inferred from some ice-modelling approaches51. The apparent reality of such extreme pre-anthropogenic rates increases the likelihood of extreme sea-level rise in future centuries.
This research reveals up to 2.8 meters/century sea level rise (without people mucking things up).

Edit:  LIG = The last interglacial

Past Antarctic ice melt reveals potential for 'extreme sea-level rise'
Sea levels rose as much as three metres per century during the last interglacial period as Antarctic ice sheets melted, a pace that could be exceeded in the future, given the turbo-charged potential of human-led climate change.

A study led by Australian National University researchers, published in Nature Communications, found sea-level increases during the last major melt of about 130,000 years ago were faster than models have factored in, even though the "climate forcing" from greenhouse gases is much stronger today.
I'm not certain I've found the actual paper, but maybe (see next post).

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: November 05, 2019, 04:24:57 PM »
I suppose this is the thread where those who celebrate Guy Fawkes Day will congregate.  Is Guy's dream coming true 414 years too late (for him)?

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: November 02, 2019, 05:13:16 PM »

Policy and solutions / Re: Recycling to Reduce Oil Consumption
« on: November 02, 2019, 03:50:05 PM »
Hemp was made illegal in the US (in 1937) after anti-drug and pro-oil forces combined their efforts.  The oil people (DuPont) saw that Hemp oil would provide a platform for manufacturing competitors.  I recall reading somewhere that making plastics from hemp would be easier than from oil.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: November 02, 2019, 02:23:06 PM »
Baking's 2nd image (the GIF) shows the latitude or longitude line moving about.  It appears the one iceberg that moves the most in the GIF moves in sync with with red line, suggesting everything else is 'actually moving' and that one berg is (relatively) standing still.  An alternate interpretation would be the red line is approximate (and therefore is not stationary): if so why include it in the first place?  (I know this is not Baking's doing.)

Other that that, I really appreciate Baking's close look at the relative movements of the mostly glued-together icebergs.

Me and my lineations.  Red circles one. (See thread that started with a poll that asked when a crack would occur in this area, including an enlargement of this lineation from October 2.)  Orange circles a lineation 20 km upstream.  (Petermann Glacier is about 15 km wide in the red circle [okay, oval] area.) Screen print from Polar View image from 2019-10-28.

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: October 28, 2019, 08:37:19 PM »
About time to bring out the 2016 Hurricane Matthew image.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: October 28, 2019, 03:52:32 AM »
California wildfires, strong winds prompt Newsom to declare state of emergency; 200,000 ordered to evacuate
(as reported 2 hours ago)
 Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) shut off power to 2.3 million people across 36 counties ...
Kincade Fire, which began Wednesday night and has burned 47 square miles and has destroyed 79 structures, was only 10 percent contained Sunday morning ...
Strong winds hit Sunday as gusts reached 93 mph in the hills north of Healdsburg and topped more than 80 mph in many other areas, according to the National Weather Service.

Ah, but nothing ("0") disappears!

I don't mind a day being a day, but why not divide it into 10 hours per day and 100 minutes per hour and 100 seconds per minute.  The 'new seconds' aren't that different from the 'old' ones.  Who would notice? "1,001; 1,002; 1,003", only a little faster!
day (in 'old' seconds) = 24 x 60 x 60 = 86,400 'old' seconds
day (in 'new' seconds) = 10 x 100 x 100 = 100,000 'new' seconds

(100,000-86,400)/86,400 yields a spot over 15% decrease in a second's length, so if your pulse was racing, it will really race under the new system! 70 would replace 60 for a normal pulse.

I figured this out in junior high school   :o  but nobody uses it.   :'(

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 27, 2019, 04:50:11 AM »
To see if Nares has closed, you'll need to look at least the DMI Satellite images. (Link is to "Kennedy" section - the middle part of the Strait - see at the the link links to "Kane" and "Lincoln" on the Greenland location map [and the rest of the Greenland coast]).  Looking back and forth between images with two dates (set to the same area - easy to do), you'll see in the lower Kennedy section, there is still ice movement.  In the Lincoln imagery, there isn't much right now.

If Nares freezes up this week for the winter, I think it would be unprecedentedly early in the last couple of decades.  It usually closes in the December to February period (IIRC) (and it didn't close at all in 2006-07 and 2018-19 winters).  This post in the Nares Thread gives some history of Nares' closing dates.

This, for sure, is a carbon sink, but it has changed little over the last 10,000 years, I suspect. It will change positively as the Earth heats up (which, of course, it has done these past 30+ years), then decline when mountain glaciers melt out. 

The 'weathering of minerals' associated with general erosion of mountainous terrains is the one long-term (albeit slow) carbon sink that will cool the Earth down, some day. [SkepticalScience]  The outwash plains carbon sink process is undoubtedly an enhanced aspect of the general principle.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 25, 2019, 08:38:05 PM »
There is Community and Shared Solar (a US gov't website), but I understand it is not legal in all US states.  I have no idea about elsewhere.

Unfortunately, community solar is limited in Florida. To have community solar, your utility must agree to voluntarily participate in community solar, or be forced to allow it by state-level legislation.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: October 25, 2019, 07:01:49 PM »
Relax, the mice in the inter-tuby-thing can only run so fast.  :P

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: October 25, 2019, 05:22:18 PM »
With people tramping 'all over' the designated floe, will it freeze thicker due to there being less snow insulation?  If they sprayed some fresh water on the snow (but not enough to create an ice rink), would that strengthen the floe 'faster'?  Or would this create cracks between ridges (without extra accumulation) and flats (with extra accumulation)?  (Who knew that people will [or will want to] do geoengineering on whatever piece of the Earth they find themselves?)

They are obviously not using solar panels for electricity. Will the ship's diesel cause noticeable particulate contamination?   

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 24, 2019, 04:38:20 PM »
... protecting against disasters that may hit a particular area only once in a century.
This comment is based on '20th century thinking' with a steady-state climate.  In many places, '100-year' floods will happen every 1 to 30 years, according to new flood maps
Reza Marsooli et al, Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns, Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 24, 2019, 03:29:13 PM »
Are you suggesting, "Let us pretend that climate change is real."?  "Just as a fanciful notion, let's humorously assume more intense rain events will be in our future.  On this basis, should the levees be stronger and taller or should we not build homes in flood plains any more or were the old levees just not maintained enough and can be repaired to original specifications?" [/sarc]

Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: October 24, 2019, 03:12:45 PM »
The Taku Glacier cannot escape the result of three decades of mass losses
The professional opinion is partially based on mass-loss evidence.  Not all arm-less and leg-less knights fight on.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 24, 2019, 02:38:59 PM »
South facing part of tower seems like a reasonable place for solar panels though? Grid connection already in place. ...
You "northist", you!  :o ::) :P  There is a story (apocryphal?) that when building the first government buildings in Dunedin, New Zealand, they used designs from the equivalent buildings in Edinburgh, Scotland, keeping the larger south-facing windows facing south.  (Many downtown street names in Dunedin do match those in Edinburgh.)

Science / Re: Climate Change Deniers can’t Spin the Truth!
« on: October 22, 2019, 08:46:14 PM »
Undoubtedly the U.S. Chamber of Commerce was slow to awareness:  just contrast that 2014 response to their current website (also linked earlier).

They write:
We stand with every American seeking a cleaner, stronger environment—for today and tomorrow.
Our climate is changing and humans are contributing to these changes. Inaction is simply not an option.

Combating climate change will require citizens, government, and business to work together. American businesses play a vital role in creating innovative solutions to protect our planet.

A challenge of this magnitude requires collaboration, not confrontation, to advance the best ideas and policies. Together, we can forge solutions that improve our environment and grow our economy—leaving the world better for generations to come.
I will quibble with their antagonism to confrontation and their faith in economic growth, but they are not the voice of a certain President of the United States (any more).

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 22, 2019, 08:39:29 PM »
Very nice music, indeed, B_!

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: October 22, 2019, 05:57:45 PM »
That was my guess, B_. 
Do people actually read the questions?

Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: October 22, 2019, 05:54:05 PM »
A 'perfect example' of a glacier retreating "faster than ever":
Nordenskjold Glacier, South Georgia Retreat Accelerates
From a Glacier's Perspective - October 18, 2019
In 1989 the glacier terminated at approximately the same location as in 1957. Vegetation extended quite close to the terminus with a minimal trimline or recently deglacated zone evident. ... By 1993 there has been a limited retreat exposing some newly deglaciated unvegetated terrain adjacent to the shoreline and glacier terminus. There was limited additional retreat up to 2000. This is unusual as the neighboring glaciers had all retreated substantially by 2000. By 2016 the glacier had retreated substantially, ~900 m.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: October 21, 2019, 05:51:18 PM »
I rarely visit this thread, but I'm glad I did this morning - having just completed the survey Kassy posted.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 20, 2019, 11:21:15 PM »
USA for Africa - We are the World

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 19, 2019, 05:02:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,313,171 km2 ...

Arctic Sea Ice Area is 752 k below the 2010's average.
In general, as climate change has caused, decade by decade, sea ice loss in the Arctic, I would expect the end of a decade to have less than the decade's average.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 19, 2019, 04:46:21 PM »
rain gauge still indicates 10 mm of rain (I was 'walking' our 21 year old cat earlier (He loves to drink from the bird bath and walk around the house.), and there was this hyper-light rain that functionally evaporated off my skin instantly, so I guess there's been a trace of rain since 6 o'clock this morning (e.g., last 4 hours).  Forecast calls for about 25 mm in next two hours.  I'm wondering if we get 1. Just now a little rain shower has arrived.  Radar shows some 'yellow' overhead.  We'll get more than '1', but I rather doubt even 10 mm more.

It is definitely breezier now, well, intermittently breezier.

It is no longer pitch black dark outside  ::)

For some context, Tallahassee has had a very dry late summer that was broken earlier this week with 75 mm of rain in about 2 days, ending Wednesday.  More context: parts of the Florida Peninsula have received up to 100 mm of rain from Tropical Storm Nestor (now Post Tropical or Extra-tropical Nestor?) and at least one tornado.  Apparently its center has not yet come ashore.

Edit 3 and a half hours later:  my rain gauge has accumulated 25 mm total for this 'storm'.  There's a chance for some more 'rain' (drizzle).  A real pity our event was cancelled on us.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 19, 2019, 01:18:11 PM »
What rain?
My rain gauge has 10 mm since yesterday (before this storm) and, except for my bare feet, I stayed dry going out to read the thing. (Still, over 50mm forecast over next 12 hours)
It's 21 C outside - the 'coldest' since last spring! (I'll admit it is very pleasant outside right now, except that it's pitch black dark out there.)
Approaching tropical storm?
My approximation of wind at ground level right now, here, is 0 kts (converted to metric is 0 m/s).  Oh wait, I hear a breeze in the tree tops.  It's gone now.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:43:59 PM »
We're expecting some gusty weather tonight and tomorrow from Tropical Storm Nestor [formerly PTC 16] (Tallahassee, Florida, USA) with less than 60 mm (or between 75 and 125 mm - depending on the NOAA source!) of rain during the next ~24 hours.  A tri-state Sacred Harp sing got cancelled on us as the county which owns the facility we were going to rent is concerned about power outages.  :(  [But more spinach lasagna, which I prepared last night, for us!  :o]

Edit:  the "60 mm" forecast has changed to over 100.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:14:34 PM »
GIF #2:  I 'like' the floe that was hiding in Lady Franklin Bay, then came out and danced a [jig] around Hall Basin.
GIF #3:  Mostly I've seen the Kane Basin gyre rotating counter-clockwise.  Nice to see it trying clockwise for a change.

[Edit in brackets]

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 16, 2019, 04:31:46 PM »
From above:
As long as the ice is at 100% extent, I don't see how there could be any difference.
From the internet (NOAA):
The underside of the ice cover also responds to the surface melt. Directly underneath melt pools the ice is thinner and is absorbing more incoming radiation. This causes an enhanced rate of bottom melt so that the ice bottom develops a topography of depressions to mirror the melt pool distribution on the top side.
Thinner ice (especially under a melt pond) allows for more warming of the water under the ice, so there is more bottom melt under 1m thick ice than under 2m thick ice (with identical surface conditions).

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: October 12, 2019, 10:00:48 PM »
In this case the UK QWERTY keyboard does actually have r and t side by side.....
And you expect us to take your word for it that you actually use a keyboard with the UK QWERTY set up‽   :o ::) :P :)

Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: October 11, 2019, 04:37:32 PM »
Here's Australia's Bureau of Meteorology ENSO outlook (only 4 months into the future).

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 04, 2019, 11:04:43 PM »
Corals survived the Permian Extinction. Will they survive the Holocene Extinction?
The end-Permian extinction event, "during which 96% of marine species were wiped out" [link] had remarkably different kinds of corals before and after the extinction.  Yes, corals then and corals now, but with a 1.5 million year gap in-between, it's like saying "reptiles before and reptiles after the extinction event", with no regard to what type of reptiles.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:42:54 PM »
*** The difference in 2019 extent to 2018 extent is reducing. This means progress towards a new 365 day trailing average record low is slowing, putting the current projection into mid 2020 from early 2020. This could easily change either way in the course of the next few days.
[emphasis added]
And you dare to also write "really boring". ;D

Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:58:19 PM »
Brainstorm:  a bicyclist's safety vest with a big orange heart with "I" and "Climate".

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 02, 2019, 11:11:31 PM »
Fearmongering will not help the situation.  All it has done in the past is alienate the populace, who relate the fearmongerers to other Armageddon prophets. ...
I think fearmongering by a populist leader can move mountains.  Think "war hysteria".  (I don't like the mountain being moved, but that's another issue.)

I prefer the research that finds that non-violent movements are much more likely to succeed than violent ones. (e.g., here)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 10:56:48 PM »
I just read somewhere of a ~60 year cycle of AMOC speeding up and slowing down associated with something else - something like, (1) AMOC slows, more cold water sinking faster, AMOC speeds up; (2) AMOC speeds up, less cold water sinking, AMOC slows.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: October 02, 2019, 10:43:38 PM »
Layers of rock debris (e.g., from landslides falling onto the ice) on top of a glacier are well know to protect the ice from melting. Exceptional example from

Obviously, this picture shows that not all rock debris actually protects the ice!

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