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Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: November 03, 2020, 07:13:24 AM »
For 2°C:
Can 232 GtC (851 CO2) of soil carbon be used to update remaining carbon budgets in SR15, Ch 2, Table 2.2?
For 50% chance in Table 2.2, budget to keep below 2°C is 1500 GtCO2 (less Earth System Feedbacks less emissions since 1/1/2018).
Taking 851 from 1500 gives 650 GtCO2 (less Earth System Feedbacks less emissions since)
Earth system feedbacks include CO2 released by permafrost thawing or methane released by wetland. These in Table 2.2 given as 100 GtCO2 for a 1.5°C rise, but will be more for 2°C rise.
Guess 150GtCO2?
Emissions since date in SR15 (1/1/2018) about 100 GtCO2?
That gives remaining carbon budget of 650-150-100 = 400 Gt CO2.
That's a remaining budget of 53 tonnes CO2 per human for 2°C rise.
Crude but this it at all realistic?
How much does non-CO2 climate forcing reduce this?
Can 232 GtC (851 CO2) of soil carbon be used to update remaining carbon budgets in SR15, Ch 2, Table 2.2?
For 50% chance in Table 2.2, budget to keep below 2°C is 1500 GtCO2 (less Earth System Feedbacks less emissions since 1/1/2018).
Taking 851 from 1500 gives 650 GtCO2 (less Earth System Feedbacks less emissions since)
Earth system feedbacks include CO2 released by permafrost thawing or methane released by wetland. These in Table 2.2 given as 100 GtCO2 for a 1.5°C rise, but will be more for 2°C rise.
Guess 150GtCO2?
Emissions since date in SR15 (1/1/2018) about 100 GtCO2?
That gives remaining carbon budget of 650-150-100 = 400 Gt CO2.
That's a remaining budget of 53 tonnes CO2 per human for 2°C rise.
Crude but this it at all realistic?
How much does non-CO2 climate forcing reduce this?