Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - LRC1962

Pages: [1]
1
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 07:53:09 PM »
IPCC 5 and Paris can be placed in the trash bin. At least in the short term most environmental concerns worldwide are going to be ignored all in the interest of generating maximum number of jobs and profits at all costs.
Looking at https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/13/a-closer-look-at-scenario-rcp8-5/ I do not think we will see 8.5, but 2.6 was hopeless before Covid now there is no chance and you will see a very fast upturn in CO2 once Covid is stabilized. Where we are heading. I do not know, but based on what is occurring with governments reaction to Covid? It will only be until after extreme crisis is already on us that any action will be taken and we all know that will be far to late to just mitigate the disaster we will be facing.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 04:45:57 PM »
I think we have 2 different answers and Covid and AGW apply to both.
Lessons we should learn are that for profit fails miserably in a crisis. It is based on the premise you never have redundancy and you do everything as cheaply as possible. and result when a crisis hits you have no extra manoeuvring room in your system to mitigate the crisis and what you have in place is not good enough to handle the crisis.
What we are learning is that globalization is extremely fragile. Go into crisis mode what happens? Every  man for himself. Even in the boundaries of a county it is that way. Isolation is much needed, but what about much needed resources? There is very little cooperation in fact there is much more bickering about what  the other guy is or is not doing. End result. Everyone develops their own tests and own procedures and own medicines and own vaccines with very little sharing. There is some, but of the $Ts being spent very little. And as for the third world? Tough that's their problem.
IMO the same thing will happen with AGW solutions. Every man for himself and as long as I am taken care of, and I had better be, who cares about anyone else?

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Fast Transition
« on: March 10, 2020, 07:26:31 PM »
There is a brief mention of permafrost. If the land warms up beyond a certain point then the chances of seeing blue Arctic will become much greater as any ice near the land will be gone earlier in the melt season.
Now I normally avoid Fox like the plague, but I found this story interesting.https://www.fox43.com/article/news/local/contests/arctic-permafrost-is-melting-so-fast-its-damaging-the-equipment-scientists-use-to-measure-it/521-7adcbad7-1d7d-47a8-b938-d3749515ed75
Quote

In the Arctic, a changing climate isn’t something that might happen in the near future. In the uppermost stretches of the Northern Hemisphere, it’s already happening now.

Temperatures are warming; sea ice is retreating.
Now a better science approach is: https://www.theguardian.coam/environment/2019/jun/18/arctic-permafrost-canada-science-climate-crisis
Quote
Permafrost at outposts in the Canadian Arctic is thawing 70 years earlier than predicted, an expedition has discovered, in the latest sign that the global climate crisis is accelerating even faster than scientists had feared.
Granted this is old news and I have been avoiding this site for the last year or so because it is getting very depressing for me.
If you tie in the melting permafrost and what is happening with the ice then a fast transition is unavoidable. The permafrost kept the land cold which than was able to keep the water cold therefore allowed the ice to keep thick enough to stick around.  With the permafrost going much faster then thought possible, it is now unable to keep things cold. On top of that you now are seeing more  and more large scale fires because of that loss which is heating the air even more adding ash to the ice. End result is the ice will be hit harder every summer.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 12:34:24 PM »
The temp graph for Kotelny Island. 11 days in June have hit a record for the date, and the month is still not over. I am out of superlatives...
For anyone who is not aware of the location, it's in the New Siberian Islands, separating the Laptev from the ESS and the CAB.
As a Canadian, the map has a small typo. Saint John is in New Brunswick. St. John's is in Newfoundland. Canada likes making map makers life interesting.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are 3 dimensions better than 2?
« on: April 04, 2019, 10:06:37 PM »
Weather is unaffected by ice thickness also.  The entire evapotranspiration process is cutoff, when the water is covered by ice. 

Given the topic at hand, the differences between open water and an ice-covered surface is significantly greater than the difference in ice thickness.

GAC2012, in case one has forgotten, puts a great lie to those statements. The GAC ran onto ice, which if thick and solid would have died out quickly as the temp differential between the outer edge and core would have become the same as both would have been using the same air. What happened in 2012, the ice was thin or if thick very broken, which when the storm first hit dispersed the ice giving access to open water. End result was the temp differential remained high enough the the storm continued doing damage for a very long time. Volume and density do matter very much.
Another factor is waves. Waves hitting a wall of dense thick ice lose all their energy very fast. In 2007, scientists witnessed many times where waves were entering ice fields 100's of miles from the edge and destroying ice over 10 meters thick because the ice was really nothing more then slush. Again volume and density matter.
The last few years we have not seen a GAC nor the kind of wave action that destroys fragile ice and therefore extent has been a very important factor as  far as the shape of ice appears to be in, but if we get another storm like in 2012 or wave action like in 2007, and I feel that we would witness very large fast decline in the ice, because the volume and density of the ice that is around is very very fragile.
BTW I have not voted because it all depends on the weather. Some conditions the 2D metric is far better, but in others the 3D is far better. If we ever can get to the point of getting reliable density measurements, that would be even better.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 03, 2019, 04:04:54 PM »
Jim thanks for posting the article on transpolar drift, but when I followed the link, the text of article was broken up and unreadable. Advice welcome.
another readable link can be found here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41456-y (sharing link points to an epdf file that is not working)

8
Policy and solutions / Trump Science
« on: September 29, 2018, 01:49:10 AM »
Not sure exactly where to put this. Maybe sad comedy?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6878d7e39b9a
WH logic. Temps will rise 7F by 2100 which will cause massive sea level rise and catastrophic conditions on land. Based on their theory that this will happen no matter what is done as it already is in the pipe, return to 1960's BSU levels of emissions because if the world is going to be a disaster by 2100 why not enjoy life the way we did back then?
**face plant**
This has to be a joke right?

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 20, 2018, 08:03:27 AM »
JAXA ASI Extent.
April 19th, 2018: 12,888,393 km2, a drop of -50,285 km2.
2018 is the lowest on record.
2018 is now -39,724 km2 under 2016.
I 'Liked' this, Actually should for each one, but most times I come on it is more to see what is happening then quickly leave. Not very kind to the forum, but what value I can add is very bad from education standards. On the otherhand liking it leaves me with a very sick feeling, because the legacy my generation has left (over 55) the next many generations will be paying a very high price for their entire lifetimes.
Keep the data coming because you are recording history and there are very few sites that are doing a very good job of it, and right now governments seem to be doing more and more to erase it.

Pages: [1]