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The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: Today at 04:48:55 PM »
a quick note to Phoenix ..

do we need a 'mission statement ? We are not on a mission , nor are we missionaries .
A 'natural tension' should not exist between you and FRiv .. the ignore button may mean you are alone .
You should not be competing with him or anyone else , especially not with the aim of 'persuading others what to believe' .. bring your facts and figures , the ice will confirm them or otherwise as the season and years progress  . 


Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 12, 2020, 06:44:07 PM »
If the mega crack becomes open sea is there a name for that route ?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 10:49:15 PM »
pretty much every forecaster agrees .. the GAAC is here to stay another week at least . The latest gfs has it slipping away in 15 days . The basin of ice is set to keep spinning and shrinking . The winds are looking stronger , with easterly gales from the Bering to the Fram north of Eurasia over the next few days.
  I see more and more ice ready to go the way of Kara's brown ice which is now mostly gone . Pagophilus's brown ice in Chukchi extends by degrees well into the CAB , ready to collapse before tide , wind wave and current  . None of the ice from Chukchi to the Atlantic has what it takes to get to winter . It may not have what it takes to get to August !
As johnm33 posted earlier on the hycom thread the remaining ice has lost the capacity to crack at any significant scale . It is clearly not becalmed !

Nothing to stop top and bottom melt continuing apace .. plenty more sun and momentum .
as the hycom gif shows , we pretty much have 2/3rds of the CAS exposed to open water .
The CAA- Greenland mega crack is doing fine .. a few thousand sq kms of warming water where there was always multiyear ice in the past . btw .. Did anyone notice the 10 mile cube of ice balanced above Ellesmere on the latest worldview ? Yesterday offered fine views of the  N. Greenland Sea .
 The ice in Lincoln is on the move .. with the GAAC easterly , most of it seems intent on heading for Beaufort at @ 10 km /day though the ice N. of Ellesmere has travelled 60 km in the last 3 days . Some of this ice may make it to the refreeze .
 2020 is fast becoming a vision of the future .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 11, 2020, 07:04:45 PM »
.. says an optimist . :) b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 10, 2020, 11:50:02 AM »
the pond drainage and colour change remind me of nothing more than our home-made ice lollies in the '60's .. you could suck all the colour and flavour out of them and still be left with porous ice on a stick that looked just like the ice after drainage .. a crunchy skeleton .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 04:14:04 PM »
ta grixm  .. as it's very obvious actual area is shrinking during the last 4 days I suppose it must be assumed the drainage of melt ponds has helped cancel out the real decline ..
  open water has moved from 82.1'N to 82.8'N over the last week . If the current rate of melt/retreat continued , open water would reach the pole by mid September . Of course bottom melt could accelerate this and a change in weather could postpone it for another year .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 03:43:08 PM »
While extent continues to drop, area has actually stalled for the last 4 days. More draining melt ponds?

 where is that graph from ? what is it showing? 
.. and why does it bear no relation to Gerontocrat's updates or what appears to be happening ? b.c.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 09, 2020, 01:06:07 PM »
As a consequence of the idiocy found daily on fb I posted this today ..

                 The means of Corona virus spread has finally been identified .

                           It is caused by the love farts of flying pigs

 any scientific arguement against this SELF-EVIDENT TRUTH will be met with laughter

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:14:39 PM »
The 5 day average NSIDC loss in the CAB on July 4 was 83.8k km2 or a total of 418k for the 5 days.

The current 5 day average through July 6th is 15.7k km2 or 88.5k km2 for the 5 days.

The difference in CAB area decline for the two days that left the 5 day average (June 30 and July 1) and the last two days that entered the 5 day average is 330k km2.

There are many potential explanations and I'm not going to try. Just an interesting bit of data to mull over.

melt ponds draining .. next step on the way to iceobliteration .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:00:08 PM »
If you want to see what happens next if we have another week or two of anticyclone followed by whatever comes next take a look at Kara/ CAB . Browned ice is simply vanishing in situ. The streak from 79N 90E to 82N 90E ..@ 50,000 sqkm of 3 days ago has been collapsing .. especially where it has been pushed toward the island,944464.758704975,1164876.4200908248,1112656.758704975&p=arctic&t=2020-07-05-T15%3A10%3A34Z&l=Graticule(hidden),Coastlines(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(hidden,palette=green_1,min=220.7,max=240.2,squash=true),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor

 just play the next 2 days .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:35:11 AM »
[quote author=Phoenix link=topic=3017.msg272304#msg272304 date=1594107461

OK...what is epic about the 10 day forecast? I see a temp forecast at 850 hpa. Google tells me this is generally about 1.5km above sea level, above the boundary layer.

If I open the GFS forecast and look what's doing in 10 days at sea level, I see the warm spots wherever this is open water in the forecast and all the ice covered areas are actually pretty mild ..


It's not as if you haven't been helped to understand the relevance of using 850hpa temps before ..
The 850 hPa temperature is somewhere away from the ice. I'm not sure of the altitude, maybe someone with more knowledge than me can provide that.

But it is the temperature adjacent to the ice that is going to impact the ice, not the temperature 1,000 feet above sea level. For the benefit of the lurkers who are reading the thread, I think it's useful to kick the tires and questions some assumptions about the magnitude of the current events.

The heat coming into the Chukchi and ESS and the high winds pushing ice through Fram is quite significant and easily understandable and acceptable. No problem.

Maintaining heat over ice for a very long distance over ice and delivering it to the surface of much of the CAB where it can impact the ice in May is a completely differently animal. Skepticism of this is healthy from a scientific perspective.

Surface air temperatures over the ice are held close to a 0C maximum due to the latent heat of fusion of ice. This is quite apparent each year on the DMI 80N temperatures. For that reason, using something like the 850hPa temperature (or the less common, 925hPa value) is useful for assessing the relative heat mass over the ice. It's far from perfect, and temperature inversions, fog and such will add more complications, but much of the time in summer, 850hPa temperatures are more useful than surface temperatures.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 01:21:57 PM »
indeed Jim .. also a great day to look back at 2013 .. it looked like the end of the world in comparison to today .. yet it has become 'just another year' . b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:59:36 PM »
What do you think, what is the chance that melting could reach North Pole this year from the Russian side?

  or Greenland ?

I was very confident in 2016 and then the melting season stalled , as did the freezing season . A cool August can change everything . But this year has a very different feel thus far .

 Could that 977mb 'storm' way out at 384 hrs be replaced by a 1025+ high in the next forecast ? It has been known to happen ! :) b.c.
ps 1030+ ! .. still plenty of time for a storm or few .. more melt in the meantime ...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:16:24 PM »
hi JNap , for sun I don't recall any better period than last year but @ 30 days earlier .. I recall the sun shining at the pole for days on end , it was earlier and cooler . The ice between Siberia and the pole looks worse now than last year after the event .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 08:56:58 PM »
the latest gfs is so far 'beyond belief' as far as the Arctic basin is concerned that it seems to have crashed or been pulled at 240 hours out .. I've never seen a gfs forecast get stuck before .. but then I've never seen one like this .. which follows .. which follows ..

I said a couple of days ago every forecast was worse than the last . Surely this is enough ? b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 30, 2020, 01:25:47 AM »
and just @ every thought above has been raised by me over the years .. from changing the stupid Q title to hiving off the politics .
 Idiot that I was , I came here to learn and access the knowledge and leads of those already busy providing access to a wealth of info . As a newbie I lurked .. probably took 2 years to make 100 posts . I appreciated what I had found ( invited here by Born From The Void .. an occasional visitor these days (and scientist) ) and have rarely missed a day in over 7 years .
 I pm'd A-team 10 days ago .. he's well and still active in the background . Funny , when I searched for A-team , a comment from Rod to Rich (Phoenix) appeared .

Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #65 on: July 14, 2019, 04:11:27 AM »
Quote from: Rich on July 14, 2019, 03:59:57 AM

Stop with the amateur mind reading.


That said, maybe some people think a newbie should just shut up and listen and not participate until after the world is condemned to a shitty outcome? We can agree to disagree about that.

I don't aspire to be popular and liked by anyone but I'm not doing anything with the intention of pissing anyone else off either. I'm not a troll. An asshole? OK. But not a troll. I'm genuine and transparent (which may be worse depending on your perspective).

Thanks for pointing out that I screwed up the quotation marks in that recent comment. I fixed it asap.

''This is bull shit.  We have all supported your right to post your theories even as a newbie.   I went to war for you with A-team when he tried to shut you up.''

I’m getting discouraged by the way you continuously say things that are on the fringe, and then pretend to be insulted when people point out your mistakes.

It has become very disruptive.


 It was that sort of thing that caused me to offer my services in moderation . And that had nothing to do with the political threads but rather the politics and gamesmanship going on in the Cryosphere threads the last couple of seasons which has been a spur to A-team and others stepping back
 None of this helps the ice or educates anyone . I'd rather be everyone's friend and get on with watching the greatest show on earth until my gb's run out ( as they do most months )

..and as I (and Oren) say .. only Neven has a say .. b.c.

Anyone that gets their scientific information from Facebook, deserves what they get.

sadly , that seems to be most of my friends on facebook .. before , they used to show discernment , now they are parrots and trumpettes ..

and I certainly wouldn't want the moderator's job ..

Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: June 28, 2020, 12:02:21 PM »
here Channel 4 reported on IKEA's devastation of Ukraine's ancient beech forests , illegally harvested but every tree has it's FSC stamp . Corruption at every level .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 11:50:41 PM »
.. and if that Euro were to be realized Kara would be ice-free in 10 days . The Laptev wouldn't be far behind and there would be little thick ice hiding behind islands .It ends with a much weakened and warmed CAA being tested .
  The gfs has become progressively warmer with each forecast today as well .. b.c.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: June 27, 2020, 03:53:13 PM »
Thanks JD .. your no dig detailed info is invaluable :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 12:24:27 PM »
''This model has been showing an active garlic press, or perhaps cheese grater or ice cream scoop since may.'' .. OTG post 1871 ..
  Oh No it hasn't .. no ice has moved south through the channels .. the very definition of the garlic press at work . As Friv has since highlighted , a southerly will continue to roast the channels over the coming days and probably push the main pack off shore . This is the weather preparing the way for activity sooner or later .. i fear sooner .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 12:57:58 AM »
That HYCOM model ^^ predicts lift off of the thickest ice , which may soon come slamming back and have us an active garlic press by the middle of July . Just one of the many reasons this could still be BOE No 1 ! b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 22, 2020, 10:45:19 AM »
Sorry , my postings being a bit haphazard lately probably helped lead you astray . Perhaps the humor thread ?  ;) PC b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 21, 2020, 05:00:09 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 20, 2020, 06:08:05 PM »
Further to the conversation re the ESS SIA , with a further drop of 35k today I guess we are in Friv's 'never before in modern human history' territory . Thanks Gero. for the reliability of your updates ! :) b.c.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 19, 2020, 02:00:28 PM »
good news and good sounds .. Good Day ! :) b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 18, 2020, 01:57:51 PM »
 the gfs0600 forecast seems to completely lack a GAC .
The title GAC is something a storm earns after the event , not after a fleeting appearance in a forecast . There may be a GAC ; there certainly will be one sooner or later , but for now I see the 977mb storm has been replaced with a 1025mb high .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 17, 2020, 02:51:07 AM »

Zack Labe's Arctic air temperature ranked by month . This May has replaced 2019 as the warmest in the last 42 years North of 70' . It's 15 years since the warmest June and 13 since the warmest July . Are these records finally going to fall ? b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 16, 2020, 07:14:33 PM »
the breakup of the ice covering Chaunskaya bay , the inlet next Pevek , 69N,169E , is a few days early compared to 2019. The area inland joins the entire North of Siberia beyond the ESS , Laptev coast in becoming sub-tropical over the next week with night time temps not falling below 20'C .  N. Canada joins in in the forecast below .. GFS 132 hours out ..

 the extent of sub-tropical climate within the Arctic is an aspect of some import as it's extension is one eventual outcome of the game humanity is playing with it's home atm . b.c.

The rest / Re: Masks
« on: June 12, 2020, 07:55:52 PM »
  .. I suppose we can say thank goodness you weren't in charge .. :)

 After months of denying their value , little Britain are making masks ( face coverings ) compulsory and introducing fines for the non-conformists . No penalty for the powers that be for their wanton refusal to protect the people sooner .. b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 11, 2020, 11:32:24 AM »
Hi P. .. such posts are off topic here .. Oren has directed you to threads awaiting your imput . Your self-censorship by refusing to post in the relevant threads is not Oren's problem , and i have no intention of allowing it to become mine . b.c.

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 04, 2020, 07:43:53 PM »
Hi Phoenix .. seems i can't remove him but I can remove his posts .. I have and I will .. b.c.

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 03, 2020, 12:17:37 AM »
^^ seconded .. b.c.

The rest / Re: Cannabis and Hemp
« on: June 02, 2020, 11:33:21 AM »
sorry nanning .. my detailed message went awol .. although I would not have mentioned direct sun .. I probably never met anyone who knew nothing about seeds and sowing .. esp with the world at ones fingertips .
  my message also explained that my heart was being awkward again .. rhythm gone to pot .. I'm tryin g to stay alive myself :) .
I usually have 0ne or more pages open on ASIF so I don't always start be seeing that I have new messages .
Please keep seeds moist . They would not know you are watering from the bottom .. nature does it from above .. until tap roots form and source water from depth . and moist is not 'wet' :)

the consequences of our little 72 hour storm over the weekend have been serious . This week the sky has been filled with the cries of the rooks swirling manically . I guessed there must be trouble . I passed under the trees yesterday and where there were 43 busy nests full of half grown young there is nothing but the remnants of 2 empty nests . The dog that harvested the bounty falling from the skies may not survive either .. 100+half feathered chicks would test anythings constitution .
  Too late to start again , it is the first time i have known a rookery to have a total fail . this has likely been repeated throughout the country . b.c.

Policy and solutions / Re: Hemp and other planet-saving plants
« on: May 28, 2020, 01:13:35 PM »
Indeed Nev en .. are your goods online ? You have a good here to do a little promotion .. :) .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 26, 2020, 01:19:45 PM »
and the 0600 gfs forecast is even warmer for the Arctic than the 00.00 forecast Friv was excited about . This year really really wants to be a record breaker ..

.. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 25, 2020, 05:00:13 PM »
That said , no sign of any recovery in the ice . b.c.
I would disagree. The ESS is filling up nicely again with ice ..

I was writing about Kara .. the ESS is quite a distance away .. so there is no reason to disagree with me .. b.c.

 ps .. I don't see any new ice in ESS either . Yes .. mobile ice has moved , but I see no recovery .

Policy and solutions / Re: Can cannabis save the world?
« on: May 24, 2020, 11:57:55 AM »
high nanning .. I've 35 years of expertise .. plus a horticultural background .. so any questions are welcome . btw .. I would choose linoleum rather than laminate for your floor .. eco friendly and much kinder on bare feet .. b.c.

Consequences / Re: World of 3000
« on: May 23, 2020, 12:47:46 PM »
enlightenment ? :)   b.c.

Policy and solutions / Re: Can cannabis save the world?
« on: May 22, 2020, 12:38:44 AM »
I would happily argue there is nothing more 'on topic' .. b.c. :)

Policy and solutions / Re: Cannabis can help save this planet
« on: May 21, 2020, 04:32:13 PM »
certainly helps me daily through lockdown .. I am semi-retired after 40 years of defending this wonderful plant . And as for free grass .. I have helped many with exactly that , as medication and sacrament .
   As for hemp .. my encouragement has caused a return to growing (under licence) throughout the island of Ireland for everything from hempcrete to freeze dried juice .. just be cause ...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 21, 2020, 04:24:11 PM »
Hi G .. your remark that we are 1 week ahead of the 2010's , 2 ahead of 2000's holds true for 3 weeks ahead of the 90's and 4 ahead of the 80's .. In fact .. 31 days ahead of the 80's .. so we are already at the equivalent of 80's solstice today . Scary ! b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Arctic for Amateurs and Newbies
« on: May 18, 2020, 05:41:42 PM »
indeed .. the day there is no ice we will know there is no volume and know the most accurate measure .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Arctic for Amateurs and Newbies
« on: May 18, 2020, 04:33:46 PM »
I hadn't noticed more snow this year .. wish A-team was still here to tell the whole story . As the fog/or what ? discussion happened here it missed being debated elsewhere .. the fog certainly reduced solar imput .. and as there seems to have been no wetting of the surface i can only assume temps were held below freezing.. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 13, 2020, 01:08:23 PM »
Thank you Csnavywx .. glad to have you corroborate . b.c.

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: May 12, 2020, 02:52:09 AM »
.. and I've been busy moving soil with a wheelbarrow and missed the show . Is everybody happy ? b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 11, 2020, 12:06:05 PM »
... and after gfs's improvements last year they are no longer an outlier ( or out'n'out liar :) ) with regard to forecast heat in the Arctic basin .

.. and last year Neven was saying anticyclonic weather in May was no bad thing when it came to ice survival . Good to have another chance to observe .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 12:54:01 AM »
Really unusual is the near permanent ridge from Ireland to Alaska/Bering/Siberia .. ECM and GFS have it forecast to last the next 10 days .

  Oh .. And the wind , and the heat , the highs and the lows , the ejection of cold and it's consequences further south ...

 Welcome to the new May .. b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 02, 2020, 07:28:44 PM »
Hi F. Tnioli .. I have been raising a similar hypothesis here for some years .. low angle sun melting near vertical ice faces .. my thoughts were mostly relating to the exposed fracture surfaces as they seemed to increase in number over the years , Last year I was remarking on the obvious 360' melt and run-off on the steep slopes around an mini island ice sheet N of russia while the horizontal surface was unaffected . b.c.

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