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Messages - solartim27

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:38:43 PM »
Hard to believe that Italy is saying that they need to stop testing because theyre finding to many positive samples.  In regards to the US, we have 2+ weeks of community transmission,  makes me think of a tweet i saw yesterday, "I'm giving up hope for lent"

Number of tests and positivity rate for Covid-19 as of Feb. 26

UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). [source]
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 470 positive (5.0% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. [source]
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results. [source]
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown. [source]
United States: 445 concluded tests, of which 14 positive (3.1% positivity rate). [source]

Italy has announced on Feb. 26 that it would begin testing only people with symptoms, claiming that the higher number of cases (compared to other European countries) is due to more tests being conducted.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 26, 2020, 06:34:36 AM »
This site has been mentioned previously, but this thread has grown quite a bit since then.  With the outbreak breaking to so many different countries, this page gives a great overview, with highlighted changes.  I believe it is updated 2x per day, might be more.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: February 13, 2020, 03:46:02 PM »
I was very surprised that they are burning Kerosene in the current engines. There are rumors that cleaner fuel engines are in development.
From Smithsonian Magazine (which had lots of ads)
So what could possibly be wrong with this groundbreaking test flight? While visually appealing, cheaper and a major technological advancement, what about the environmental impact? The rocket is reusable, which means cutting down the resources required for the metal body of the rocket. However, the mass of most rockets are more than 95% fuel. Building bigger rockets with bigger payloads means more fuel is used for each launch. The current fuel for Falcon Heavy is RP-1 (a refined kerosene) and liquid oxygen, which creates a lot of carbon dioxide when burnt.

The amount of kerosene in three Falcon 9 rockets is roughly 440 tonnes and RP-1 has a 34 percent carbon content. This amount of carbon is a drop in the ocean compared to global industrial emissions as a whole, but if the SpaceX’s plan for a rocket launch every two weeks comes to fruition, this amount of carbon (approximately 4,000 tonnes per year) will rapidly become a bigger problem.

The LA Times has a good article going into more depth

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 13, 2020, 03:26:25 PM »
I may be wrong, but tropics are usually good habitats for pathogens probably because of high humidity all year round.

It's the higher latitudes that see outbreaks during cold and wet months and less activity during summer.
There is an interesting U shaped curve for virus and bacteria viability from a recent paper. It is paywalled, but the abstract is pretty comprehensive.  There is also a NIH paper from 2008, showing how the lipid shell making up the outer wall of a virus hardens at lower temperature, making it much more stable. So though I hate to say it, the orange idiot is right about the spring reducing transmission.
Humidity-Dependent Decay of Viruses, but Not Bacteria, in Aerosols and Droplets Follows Disinfection Kinetics
Kaisen LinLinsey C. Marr*
The transmission of some infectious diseases requires that pathogens can survive (i.e., remain infectious) in the environment, outside the host. Relative humidity (RH) is known to affect the survival of some microorganisms in the environment; however, the mechanism underlying the relationship has not been explained, particularly for viruses. We investigated the effects of RH on the viability of bacteria and viruses in both suspended aerosols and stationary droplets using traditional culture-based approaches. Results showed that viability of bacteria generally decreased with decreasing RH. Viruses survived well at RHs lower than 33% and at 100%, whereas their viability was reduced at intermediate RHs. We then explored the evaporation rate of droplets consisting of culture media and the resulting changes in solute concentrations over time; as water evaporates from the droplets, solutes such as sodium chloride in the media become more concentrated. Based on the results, we suggest that inactivation of bacteria is influenced by osmotic pressure resulting from elevated concentrations of salts as droplets evaporate. We propose that the inactivation of viruses is governed by the cumulative dose of solutes or the product of concentration and time, as in disinfection kinetics. These findings emphasize that evaporation kinetics play a role in modulating the survival of microorganisms in droplets.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 23, 2020, 05:11:04 PM »
Unfortunately a tanker plane fighting the fires has crashed, killing 3.  The article says deaths caused by the fires stand at 32 now.

The crash, which occurred near Cooma, northeast of the Snowy Mountains, comes as Australia continues fighting massive bushfires fueled by record-setting temperatures. A fire southeast of Canberra, one of several firefighters are battling, has engulfed nearly 1,000 square miles and is considered out of control.

“YOU are very aware that if something goes wrong, it goes very wrong very quickly,” says Joanne Johnson, speaking from her tent near Thwaites glacier in one of the remotest parts of Antarctica."
What is "very quickly"? To a geologist that might be centuries.
To someone at one of the most remote places on Earth, it could be a matter of seconds. I believe the quote was about their safety.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 30, 2019, 04:45:48 PM »
More activity developing at the northeast notch.  All the recent large calvings started with a calving here.
Original file 50 Mb

Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:01:06 AM »
The findings of the linked reference imply that current ice shelf models err on the side of least drama with regard to ice mass loss associated with relatively warm ocean water beneath such ice shelves, as illustrated by measurements from the Getz Ice Shelf in West Antarctica:

Rippin, D. M.: Significant submarine ice loss from the Getz Ice Shelf, Antarctica, The Cryosphere Discuss.,, in review, 2018.
New calving at Getz, short gif at link

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 18, 2019, 07:51:44 PM »
Worldview shows lots of development over the last four weeks, but the resolution is not high enough to see for certain.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: January 18, 2019, 07:38:07 PM »
World view is nice and clear today, hopefully we can get a visual shot this weekend.  Looks like the cracks might have joined up right upstream of the ice rise.  (32 MB)

The area you have circled is just sea ice now that it has separated from the glacier, though it might qualify as an ice shelf.  The calving front is about 20 miles further in.  Gif from Nov 29 to Jan 1, lots of motion visible. I wonder where the grounding line is these days.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: December 31, 2018, 05:24:21 PM »
There was an almost clear Sentinel shot of Brunt on the 29th.  Here's a gif from September until then from the playground in natural color, and a 2nd shot in the same area with the NDWI band selected. ( Note the 3 km scale bar in the lower right corner )

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: December 31, 2018, 04:04:15 AM »
Here's a worldview GIF from the end of November to the end of December. Hard to say if the crack really expanded that much, or if it's just surface snow melting, blowing, or something to make it more visible.  A nice Sentinel shot would be nice around now.

A very small, nothing to worry about calving at Thwaites, of only about 10 miles.

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: November 07, 2018, 07:45:35 AM »
Here is a wider view of the Brunt Ice Shelf showing the other side of the Halloween Crack.  Looks like there is a chance for a significant  calving there.
Original image 53 mb

Antarctica / Re: Halley base shut down and new crack in Brunt shelf
« on: November 05, 2018, 06:57:14 PM »
Very nice animation from July 30, 2016 to Oct 30 2018

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 29, 2018, 03:56:18 AM »
That's a serious crack if you  can see it through clouds on worldview.  Dare we say it's calved again?  Aqua  band  Oct 28

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 25, 2018, 04:06:04 AM »
The pinning berg on the Tributary glacier is starting to break up.  All the cracks seem to have progressed fully across PIG.  Still impossible to say when it will go.  Previous large calvings have been preceded by smaller calvings in the left hand notch area, I would expect the same this time.

happened to have a break in the clouds, and looked out the window at just the right time to see the Helheim area on a recent trip.  I like to think the engine is consuming the ice.

Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: August 21, 2018, 01:04:32 AM »
Here's a nice shot of PIG from todays Sentinel.  I am amazed at the continued degradation of the ice sheet between PIG and the Trib.  Some say a picture is worth a thousand words.  Zoom in, guaranteed to be an interesting summer. (50 MB image)

Large calving video from Jun 22
Live Science: Dramatic Video Captures Moment Towering Iceberg Splits from Greenland Glacier.

Thwaites is continuing to break up.  I noticed this roller pretty far in. Anyone seen recent grounding line info?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 03, 2018, 05:51:34 PM »
Nice overview of what you can find on Cryoportal from this thread.
Ruth Mottram (@ruth_mottram) Tweeted:
The final meeting for phase 2 of the @esaclimate #CCI #Greenland #icesheet project showing the evolution of the #icevelocity data with improvements to coverage and algorithms from #Sentinel1


I've noticed that iceberg b22a has been moving recently, sort of surprising for the middle of winter.
From the Icebergs thread
My focus is more on West-Antarctica particularly B22a (44X24 nm) which blocks Thwaites Glacier from the open sea. If this beast becomes loose all the icebergs behind can drift out as well.

Here's a recent shot from Polar View, the computer I used to make gifs crashed, and I haven't figured out a good alternate yet.  (55 Mb)

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: January 19, 2018, 05:23:56 PM »
A nice satellite shot of the USCG icebreaker Polar Star heading to Mcmurdo station

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