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Messages - bligh8

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1
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: September 17, 2019, 11:44:07 PM »
 Oren.....Yea, that's me so engrossed in the article I often forget to include the "link".

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2019-05-09-houston-americas-flood-capital

Hurricane Harvey
Harvey was the most widespread and extreme rainfall event from any tropical depression, storm or hurricane in U.S. history dating to the late 19th century.
(MORE: Full Harvey Recap | 3 Highest-Volume U.S. Rain Events Happened From 2016-2018)
After landfalling at Category 4 intensity along the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, Harvey's agonizingly slow crawl produced up to 60 inches of rain in a pair of locations near Beaumont and Port Arthur in late August 2017.
Virtually the entire Houston metro area picked up at least 20 inches of rain, with some totals exceeding 40 inches. The total area covered by the 20-inch Harvey swath in east Texas and Louisiana was estimated to be almost the size of South Carolina.

Thanks

bligh

2
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: September 17, 2019, 11:32:51 PM »
Thanks ;)  I fear for these lovely creatures....

3
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: September 17, 2019, 10:25:25 PM »
Is Houston America's Flood Capital?

According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, there were 96 days with at least one report of flooding or flash flooding in Harris County from 1996 through 2015. This equates to an average of four to five days of flooding each year over that time period.
Of course, not all of these flood events are as severe as April 2016, Memorial Day 2015, or Allison in 2001. The fact that flooding happens with such regularity most years in an area just slightly larger than the state of Rhode Island is quite impressive.

There have been at least 26 events that flooded homes in the Houston metro area since the mid-1970s, according to Houston-based Weather Research Center (WRC) and National Weather Service records. WRC documented area floods, some related to tropical cyclones, back to 1837, the year after the city was founded.
These events have happened every time of the year, even in late fall and winter.
Apart from the prodigious rainfall from tropical cyclones and their remnants, thunderstorms and thunderstorm clusters tend to slow and stall near the Gulf Coast, especially from late spring through early fall.
There's also Houston's geography and method of flood control.
"We now force rainwater into streets, and then into bayous, which flush out to Galveston Bay and the Gulf (of Mexico)," said Matt Lanza, an operational meteorologist in energy based in Houston.
Lanza says the streets, therefore, are part of the flood control system. "It's a good idea in theory because you'd rather flood roads and cars than houses. But I'm not sure any method of flood protection can prevent what unfolded over us in April 2016."
Then, there's Houston's notorious urban sprawl.

"The population has exploded here in the last 10 years, much of it settling north and west of the city," said Lanza.

"What was once farm or wetlands is now pavement and suburbia. Thus, there is less barren land to suck up the rain now, and that further exacerbates flooding."
Houston also sits only about 43 feet above sea level, so the flat system of bayous drains very slowly.

As severe as recent flood events were, imagine what happens when a tropical storm moves inland, its remnants stall, then move back over the Houston metro area.



TROPICAL STORM ALLISON (2001)
U.S. Highway 59 in Houston, Texas, remained flooded on June 10, 2001, due to rain from Tropical
 
Such was the case with Tropical Storm Allison in 2001.
An initial soaking as Allison moved ashore on June 5-6 was followed by a second epic deluge after Allison's remnant moved off the Texas coast on June 8-9.
By the time the rains ended, parts of the Houston metro area had picked up more than 35 inches of rainfall over the five-day period, much of which fell during that second round. This is roughly three-quarters of the average annual rainfall in just five days.
Furthermore, Allison's torrential rain – 10 inches or more –  was much more widespread over the Houston metro, not to mention east Texas and the northern Gulf Coast (map), than the Memorial Day event of 2015.
More than 14,000 homes were destroyed or heavily damaged, with an additional 34,000 homes suffering at least minor damage, according to the National Hurricane Center's recap.
Total damage from Allison was estimated at $9 billion, easily the costliest tropical cyclone that never became a hurricane in U.S. history. Allison claimed 23 lives in Texas and became the first non-hurricane to have its name retired by the World Meteorological Organization.
Here are a few bayou crests in Harris County from the Memorial Day event, compared to Allison and other events.
Buffalo Bayou at Shepherd Drive (west of downtown Houston; flood stage is 28 feet):

Brays Bayou at Beltway 8 (southwest Harris County; top of bank is 64.2 feet):
Memorial Day 2015 crest: 65.91 feet
Hurricane Ike 2008 crest: 58.7 feet
This Memorial Day event was near the September 1983 flood of record along middle and upper Brays Bayou, per the Harris County Flood Control District.
Greens Bayou at Shepherd Drive (outside Interstate 610 loop northeast of downtown Houston; flood stage is 30 feet):
Memorial Day 2015 crest: 34.02 feet
Hurricane Ike 2008 crest: 36.24 feet
Allison 2001 crest: 44.01 feet (the record crest)

More within the article

Todays events in Huston


4
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: September 17, 2019, 08:29:55 PM »
Emperors on thin ice: three years of breeding failure at Halley Bay

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antarctic-science/article/emperors-on-thin-ice-three-years-of-breeding-failure-at-halley-bay/4CA1A77971A4CD5D5CB823EBF338FAA9/core-reader


Abstract

Satellite imagery is used to show that the world's second largest emperor penguin colony, at Halley Bay, has suffered three years of almost total breeding failure. Although, like all emperor colonies, there has been large inter-annual variability in the breeding success at this site, the prolonged period of failure is unprecedented in the historical record. The observed events followed the early breakup of the fast ice in the ice creeks that the birds habitually used for breeding. The initial breakup was associated with a particularly stormy period in September 2015, which corresponded with the strongest El Niño in over 60 years, strong winds, and a record low sea-ice year locally. Conditions have not recovered in the two years since. Meanwhile, during the same three-year period, the nearby Dawson-Lambton colony, 55 km to the south, has seen a more than tenfold increase in penguin numbers. The authors associate this with immigration from the birds previously breeding at Halley Bay. Studying this ‘tale of two cities’ provides valuable information relevant to modelling penguin movement under future climate change scenarios.

Introduction
The emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri Gray) colony at Halley Bay (75°33′S, 27°32′W) was one of the largest colonies in Antarctica, second only in size to that at Coulman Island in the Ross Sea (Fretwell et al. 2012). The colony is located on the northern side of the Brunt Ice Shelf (Fig. 1) and, for the past two decades, has been situated in a bay, locally named ‘Windy Creek’. Although no organized science has been conducted on the colony, it has been visited by staff from the Halley Research Station sporadically from 1956–2012 and estimates of size vary between approximately 14 300–23 000 pairs (Woehler 1993, British Antarctic Survey (BAS) unpublished data, H.J. Gillett personal communication 2018). It is likely that the colony is associated with foraging on the shallow McDonald Bank and McDonald Ice rumples, to the north and east of the site and the coastal polynya that forms north of the Brunt Ice shelf each summer season (Hodgson et al. 2018). Although this polynya is a consistent feature, the sheltered bays bordering the ice shelf usually retain fast ice until December and often the ice remains all summer. This ensures that emperors are able to raise their chicks at the site as their young fledge between mid-December and early January.


Fig. 1. Overview of the Brunt Ice Shelf, showing the location of Halley Bay and Dawson-Lambton emperor penguin colonies. The underlying image is a Landsat8 image from October 2016.

Although the recorded population has varied, the colony is consistently the largest in the Weddell Sea, over twice the size of any other colony in the region. There have been no previously recorded instances of total breeding failure at the site. It possibly represents 6.5–8.5% of the total global population and, as it is situated at high latitudes, it plausibly represents an important climate change refugia (Ainley et al. 2010, Jenouvrier et al. 2017).
The nearest colony to the Halley site is the Dawson-Lambton colony, some 55 km to the south, located where the Brunt Ice Shelf joins the continental coast (Fig. 1). Geographically this is an unusually small distance between emperor colonies (Ancel et al. 2017). Only the Mertz Ice Shelf colonies have a smaller distance between them, and these two colonies originated from a single site before the recent calving of the Mertz Ice Tongue in 2010 (Ancel et al. 2014).
However, recent monitoring has shown that the Halley Bay colony has suffered catastrophic breeding failure, whilst the nearby Dawson-Lambton colony has markedly increased in size. In this paper very high resolution (VHR) satellite imagery is used to estimate population changes at the two sites over the last ten years.

The exact number is difficult to estimate due to the rough ice surface confusing the automated image analysis. The best estimate is that around five times more birds were at, or within ~100 m of the sea-ice edge than at the main colony site. Many of the penguins were on refrozen brash ice or newly formed grease ice. This does not include the lines of birds moving between the colony site and the ice edge, which can easily be identified as birds in transit. Emperors do not breed or habitually feed their young at the ice edge as its position is dynamic and the high risk of breakup would pose a danger to unfledged chicks. Whether the adult birds here were failed breeders or non-breeders is difficult to assess from imagery alone. Subsequent Landsat8 and Sentinel2 imagery shows that by 29 November 2018, all of the fast ice on the north side of the Brunt Ice Shelf had gone, highlighting a third year of probable total breeding failure. These assumed failed breeding events are of a scale that is not apparent in the long, but sporadic record from the site (H.J. Gillett personal communication 2018, BAS records).


Fig. 2. Variability in the emperor penguin population breeding at Windy Creek, Halley Bay (solid line), and Dawson-Lambton colony (dashed line). Estimates made from very high resolution satellite imagery following the methods of Fretwell et al. (2012); upper and lower 95% confidence intervals are shown.

Understanding how environmental drivers, such as changes in SAM, sea ice, or wind speed, direction and velocity, impact upon the breeding colony at Halley, or indeed elsewhere, remains a key challenge. Further, exploring how extremes of such events lead to breeding failure is vital for projecting future population trajectories in a warming environment. The relationship between climate change and El Niño events, or positive SAM anomalies is still a matter of active research (Trenberth & Hoar 1997, Turner 2004, Turner et al. 2005, Yeh et al. 2009, Collins et al. 2010, Bracegirdle 2013, Cai et al. 2015). Recent research suggests that the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events are predicted to increase, while ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are also likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse gas emissions (Cai et al. 2015). However, other evidence cautions that it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of events will change (Collins et al. 2010). The evidence from observations of the present authors, and from earlier papers (Kooyman et al. 2007, Ancel et al. 2014), points to the fact that stochastic impacts upon emperors may be vital, even for high-latitude locations. Strong winds, or storm events can create coastal leads or polynyas that are beneficial to foraging, but prolonged periods of extreme winds can also lead to breakup and dissipation of fast ice, which can cause total breeding failure when it occurs at a sensitive time for the penguins.
At Halley, another important factor influencing the stability of the fast ice around the colony could be the dynamic nature of the creek in which it is located. Until recently, the colony was situated within a sheltered ice creek, on the northern side of the Brunt Ice Shelf, informally named Windy Creek. Over the past 60 years, the colony has occasionally moved to other adjacent sheltered creeks (H.J. Gillett personal communication 2018, BAS records). With the fast-ice breakout in 2016, ice shelf morphology changed (Fig. 3) and the resulting more open nature of the creek may now be less suitable for fast-ice retention. The Brunt Ice Shelf is a fast-moving and dynamic environment (Hodgson et al. 2018). Over the last two decades the creek has gradually moved westwards by over 600 m per year and it is possible that the migration and changing topography of Windy Creek has made it a less favourable site for emperor penguins. Any future breeding at Halley will almost certainly depend upon the juxtaposition of sheltered, stable fast ice, foraging opportunities, including over the nearby McDonald Bank, and the longer-term processes that will happen once the Brunt Ice Shelf calves, which at present rates will be within the next two years.


Fig. 3. Medium resolution satellite imagery of the Windy Creek breeding site for the years between spring 2015 and spring 2018.

Conclusion
The authors describe an unprecedented three-year period of breeding failure at the large Halley Bay emperor penguin colony. They link this to a dramatic rise in the population of the nearby Dawson-Lambton colony, a rise that can only have occurred due to immigration from Halley. These changes have been driven by a change in sea-ice conditions and early breakup of fast ice on the northern side of the Brunt Ice Shelf, which may be due to ENSO events and/or ice-shelf morphology.
In a warming world, it will be crucial to better understand the interplay between wind and ice shelf orography, and to appreciate how these factors impact the location of emperor penguin colonies. Understanding how emperor penguins react to catastrophic sea-ice loss will be of crucial importance if one is to predict the fate of the species over coming decades.

bligh


5
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 17, 2019, 06:11:43 PM »
Brands Including Lush, Patagonia, and Outdoor Voices Are Joining Greta Thunberg in the Climate Strike 2019

Select quotes 

If you're joining the worldwide Climate Strike, which kicks off on September 20, some of your favorite brands and retailers may be striking right alongside you. The strike, which begins three days before the UN Climate Summit, is meant to call attention to the climate crisis and "demand climate justice for everyone." The Climate Strike will be taking place all over the world throughout the week and is led by inspiring young activists like Greta Thunberg who are concerned about the future of our environment.

Fast Company reports that Ben and Jerry's ice cream shops and their corporate office will be closed during the strike so their employees can join in, while Lush is temporarily closing its 250 stores in the United States and Canada in solidarity.

Patagonia wrote about the strike and the young activists leading the charge on its blog, The Cleanest Line. "The great climate strike that will take place around the world this Friday has its roots in the efforts of junior high and high school students, with more than a few elementary school students thrown in," wrote environmentalist and author Bill McKibben. "I’ve gotten to know many of them—not just Greta Thunberg, but also the young people on every continent who are carrying out the same noble work

Dozens of other brands are participating in the strikes, including Dr. Bronner's, Eileen Fisher, Opening Ceremony, Outdoor Voices, Seventh Generation, and Thinx, according to Fast Company. And the strike isn't limited to clothing stores and brands; digital companies like Tumblr and Imgur are participating too.

https://www.teenvogue.com/story/brands-joining-greta-thunberg-climate-strike-2019

bligh


6
Observations of surface mass balance on Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, and the effect of strain history in fast-flowing sections

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-glaciology/article/observations-of-surface-mass-balance-on-pine-island-glacier-west-antarctica-and-the-effect-of-strain-history-in-fastflowing-sections/4F04455D66CB8E3D5B65B301813E1F2F/core-reader

HANNES KONRAD, ANNA E. HOGG, ROBERT MULVANEY
ROBERT ARTHERN, REBECCA J. TUCKWELL, BROOKE MEDLEY, ANDREW SHEPHERD
Open Access....nice paper

Abstract

Surface mass balance (SMB) is the net input of mass on a glacier's upper surface, composed of snow deposition, melt and erosion processes, and is a major contributor to the overall mass balance. Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in West Antarctica has been dynamically imbalanced since the early 1990s, indicating that discharge of solid ice into the oceans exceeds snow deposition. However, observations of the SMB pattern on the fast flowing regions are scarce, and are potentially affected by the firn's strain history. Here, we present new observations from radar-derived stratigraphy and a relatively dense network of firn cores, collected along a ~900 km traverse of PIG. Between 1986 and 2014, the SMB along the traverse was 0.505 m w.e. a−1 on average with a gradient of higher snow deposition in the South-West compared with the North-East of the catchment. We show that along ~80% of the traverse the strain history amounts to a misestimation of SMB below the nominal uncertainty, but can exceed it by a factor 5 in places, making it a significant correction to the SMB estimate locally. We find that the strain correction changes the basin-wide SMB by ~0.7 Gt a−1 and thus forms a negligible (1%) correction to the glacier's total SMB.

7
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 03:40:32 PM »
After Hurricane Sandy I walked along the back bay waterfront and adjacent streets, most of this area was a velocity zone.  What I saw was 30yrs of memories piled up in heaps of garbage on the curb, mom sat quietly on what was left of the front porch, dad tried to look busy sorting out life's treasures, now garbage. The kids were looking in vane amongst the piles of trash for their favorite toy.

No one talked, their were no good mornings or have a nice day….people were stunned, staring in disbelief at a life's work now piled up on the curb.

How elected officials act or react matter…more so, how our president acts ….matters. 

8
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 06, 2019, 06:43:54 PM »
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-09-06/na-dorian-north-carolina-category-one

Hurricane Dorian makes landfall in North Carolina’s Outer Banks as it pushes up Eastern Seaboard



"WILMINGTON, N.C. —  Hurricane Dorian howled over North Carolina’s Outer Banks on Friday — a much weaker version of the brute that wreaked havoc in the Bahamas — flooding homes in the low-lying ribbon of islands and throwing a scare into year-round residents who chose to tough it out. Hundreds were feared trapped on one flooded island, the governor said."

"Its winds down to 90 mph, the Category 1 hurricane lashed communities with rain and surging seawater as it hugged the islands. Around midmorning, its eye came ashore at Cape Hatteras, Dorian’s first landfall on the U.S. mainland."

“It’s bad,” Ann Warner, who owns Howard’s Pub on Ocracoke Island, said by telephone. “The water came up to the inside of our bottom floor, which has never had water.” She said a skylight blew out and whitecaps coursed through her front yard and underneath her elevated house."



bligh

9
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 30, 2019, 02:26:25 PM »
Climate Change Is Likely to Devastate the Global Food Supply. But There's Still Reason to Be Hopeful
<snip>
But that fate hinges on a key assumption — that current agricultural practices won’t change. And if my research has taught me anything, it’s that farmers, scientists, activists and engineers the world over are radically rethinking food production.

In my opinion and I am by no means an expert,
these voices are not heard by most farmers.

Most farmers only hear the voices of agri-business, their government lackeys and bankers.
Most national agriculture organisations speak with the voice of agri-business.
Agriculture Universities are heavily influenced by agi-business.
Most agriculture magazines are a voice of agri-business.

These wrong information 'bubbles' (lies) are holding back large scale changes.
Almost the same as what happens with the climate change and bio-collapse truths.

Every lie told incurs a depth to the truth* This truth will unfold rather dramatically over the next decade or two & millions of people will pay for these "lies".

*read or heard that somewhere....

bligh

10
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: August 30, 2019, 04:32:03 AM »
I read a paper several days ago that I thought was to alarmist even for this forum, so I just forgot about it .. except here's the thing, within that paper they predicted one million AGW related deaths per week by the middle of the next decade.  After some thought and reading abit this does not sound to outlandish .. and, @ 1 million deaths per week, the global population would still be growing.

bligh

11
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: August 30, 2019, 03:52:37 AM »
            Extended U.S. Tornado Outbreak During Late May 2019: A Forecast of Opportunity
                         Vittorio A. Gensini  David Gold  John T. Allen  Bradford S. Barrett
                  First published: 27 August 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084470
          https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084470 - open access

                           some excerpts and figures .. more within the paper

Abstract
The second half of May 2019 was an unusually active period for tornadic thunderstorms across the U.S. Great Plains, Midwest, and lower Great Lakes. While this period typically coincides with the peak climatological frequency of tornadoes, preliminary reports of tornadoes were over triple the expected 30‐year average. Multiple‐day outbreaks of tornadoes are not unprecedented in the United States; however, this event was perhaps the first to be forecast at subseasonal lead times (3–4 weeks) by the Extended Range Tornado Activity Forecast team. This forecast of opportunity was driven, in part, by anomalous convective forcing in portions of the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans, causing subsequent changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric angular momentum. This manuscript analyzes the evolution of hemispheric‐scale circulation features leading up to the event, examines teleconnection processes known to influence U.S. tornadoes, and provides insights into the forecast process at subseasonal lead times.

1 Introduction
The period 17–29 May 2019 was among the most active periods of severe weather the United States has seen in years. While 2019 data are still preliminary, at least 374 tornadoes occurred during this 13‐day stretch, more than tripling the 1986–2018 average for this period of 107. In total, 757 tornado warnings were issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service, with seven fatalities reported (Figure 1). This late‐May period contributed significantly to the second highest monthly (E)F1+ tornado count (220) on record for May since reliable tornado counts began in the early 1950s, behind only May 2003.


The 757 tornado warnings (red polygons) issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service from 1200 UTC 17 May to 1200 UTC 30 May 2019. Seven fatalities were reported during this period (locations marked by red +).


3.1 Event Summary: Synoptic Pattern
One of the most active periods of severe storms in U.S. history began on 17 May 2019 as a shortwave trough approached the Great Plains from the Great Basin. From 17 May onward, repeated days of severe weather, including several tornado outbreaks (Verbout et al., 2006), occurred as upper‐tropospheric southwesterly flow remained persistent over the Great Plains (Figure 2a), with average 300‐hPa winds during the period greater than 40 m/s. At 500 hPa, the mean negative geopotential height anomaly for the period was greater than 125 m over a large area covering the western CONUS. A persistent warm sector over the plains was characterized by vertically deep (≥2 km above ground level), anomalously rich boundary layer moisture (Figure 2c) and warm temperatures, both of which contributed to moderate‐extreme levels of convective available potential energy. In addition, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico for the 5‐week period leading up to this event were at or above normal, providing a source of boundary layer moisture (Molina & Allen, 2019). Another notable feature of this persistent period of tornado activity was multiple days with relatively weak capping inversions associated with below‐average elevated mixed layer temperatures. This promoted high spatial concentrations of severe storms that, given the favorable atmospheric parameters, were able to produce a substantial number of tornadoes.


For the period 17–29 May 2019, average (a) 300‐hPa wind (m/s) and 300‐hPa geopotential height (m), average (b) 500‐hPa geopotential height (m) and 500‐hPa geopotential height anomaly (m), and average (c) 925‐hPa specific humidity anomaly (g/kg) and 925‐hPa geopotential height (m) as computed from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis. Anomalies calculated from the 1980–2010 climatology.

A leading mode of subseasonal variability capable of giving rise to synoptic patterns favorable for enhanced tornadic activity is the MJO (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Baggett et al., 2018; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett, 2018). As an MJO event evolves over a 40‐ to 60‐day cycle, tropical convection along the equator propagates eastward from the Indian Ocean toward the Pacific. Such propagation was clearly evident in outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (Figure 3) over the 4 weeks leading up to this event. Dynamically, latent heat release results in the formation of an anomalous anticyclone to the northwest of the convection, leading to an intensification of the upper‐tropospheric zonal winds to the anticyclone's north (Moore et al., 2010). As the MJO perturbation propagates eastward forcing convection, the net result is an extension of a strong upper‐tropospheric jet into the midlatitudes of the central Pacific. When a blocking anticyclone is in place over the eastern North Pacific ocean, this jet extension eventually leads to wave breaking over western North America. It is this wave breaking, and subsequent troughing over the U.S., that links the tropical MJO to U.S. tornado frequency (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Baggett et al., 2018; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett, 2018). The predictability of the MJO convection as it moves east from the Indian Ocean across the Pacific Ocean (Lim et al., 2018) allows it to serve as a leading indicator of upcoming tornadic activity once the MJO convection moves into the eastern Pacific Ocean (Baggett et al., 2018).


Fig 3. Average 300‐hPa geopotential height (contours) and wind speed (color fill) for (a) 19–25 April, (b) 26 April to 2 May, (c) 3–9 May, (d) 10–16 May, (e) 17–23 May, and (f) 24–29 May 2019.

Multiple time and space scales contribute to subseasonal and low‐frequency variability, including El Niño and the MJO. The former was lingering from boreal autumn 2018, while the latter was becoming active from latter April into early May. While El Niño is known to be less favorable to tornado occurrence (Allen et al., 2015; Cook et al., 2017), its modulation of the large‐scale circulation is not necessarily unfavorable to tornadic potential. This paradox arises due to its role in the development of a subtropical jet stream over the central and eastern Pacific extending into the Americas. This influence, as illustrated by (Cook et al., 2017) for the later winter months, can be favorable to the development of tornado outbreaks, particularly over the southeastern United States. Indeed, this type of subtropical jet signature was evident in the 4 weeks leading up to the May 2019 event, and the subtropical jet merged with the North Pacific jet for the duration of the event (Figure 4), suggesting that ENSO contributed favorably to this anomalous period of tornado activity.


Average 300‐hPa geopotential height (contours) and wind speed (color fill) for (a) 19–25 April, (b) 26 April to 2 May, (c) 3–9 May, (d) 10–16 May, (e) 17–23 May, and (f) 24–29 May 2019.

4 Summary and Discussion

The question of why some periods record anomalously above‐climatology tornado frequency has troubled many in the U.S. forecasting community for the past few decades (Barrett & Gensini, 2013; Lee et al., 2012; Marzban & Schaefer, 2001; Thompson & Roundy, 2012; Tippett et al., 2015). The period 17–29 May 2019 stands as one of the most active in history, and was characterized by more than three times the climatological number of tornadoes for that time of year, occurring over 13 days and encompassing a wide region of Great Plains and Midwestern CONUS. Here, we have illustrated that a persistent upper‐level synoptic trough over the western CONUS, with a downstream ridge aloft over the eastern CONUS, were the main synoptic features of interest. Attribution of such synoptic‐scale features to larger‐scale, and therefore more predictable signals (Grazzini & Vitart, 2015), remains challenging owing to the complex manner in which processes interact to produce coherent, and therefore potentially predictable, subseasonal evolutions. In the present case, time scales associated with the propagation of the MJO from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the central Pacific Ocean (∼20–30 days, or roughly half a cycle) helped create an anomalous North Pacific jet stream extension and retraction sequence that aligned favorably with a transition in AAM from a relatively high to a low state. Previous research indicates that such MJO and AAM/GWO events can lead to favorable atmospheric conditions for tornadic storms in the U.S. Here, with careful monitoring of such features as they emerged both diagnostically and in NWP‐derived RMM phase space, forecasters were able to use signals within both the MJO and AAM/GWO to anticipate the potential for an extended period of favorable severe weather conditions nearly four weeks in advance. While the forecast metric of above‐normal, normal, or below‐normal (tercile) levels of tornado activity over a subjective spatial region is among the more simple methods available (Klemm & McPherson, 2017; Hartmann et al., 2002), this is a unique example of how understanding tropical convection's role in modulating extratropical dynamic processes can be used to identify a forecast of opportunity for an extreme weather event. The event also offers a pathway for developing operational predictions of U.S. tornado activity across a portion of the subseasonal timescale. Finally, this manuscript represents a single case of a successful subseasonal tornado forecast. More cases, including potential null events, should be examined in future work.

Welcome to the Anthropocene!

12
Arctic background / Re: Historic Arctic Expeditions
« on: August 28, 2019, 07:19:12 PM »
                           Arctic shipwreck frozen in time astounds archaeologists

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/science/arctic-shipwreck-frozen-in-time-astounds-archaeologists/ar-AAGs8oD?ocid=spartandhp

"The wreck of H.M.S. Terror, one of the long lost ships from Sir John Franklin’s 1845 expedition to find the Northwest Passage, is astonishingly well preserved, say Parks Canada archaeologists, who recently used underwater drones to peer deep inside the historic vessel’s interior.

“The ship is amazingly intact,” says Ryan Harris, the lead archaeologist on the project. “You look at it and find it hard to believe this is a 170-year-old shipwreck. You just don’t see this kind of thing very often.”
 
"Discovered in 2016 in icy waters off King William Island in Canada’s far north, the shipwreck hadn’t been thoroughly studied until now. Taking advantage of unusually calm seas and good underwater visibility, a team from Parks Canada, in partnership with Inuit, earlier this month made a series of seven dives on the fabled wreck. Working swiftly in the frigid water, divers inserted miniature, remotely-operated drones through openings in the main hatchway and skylights in the crew’s cabins, officers’ mess, and captain’s stateroom."

“Those blankets of sediment, together with the cold water and darkness, create a near perfect anaerobic environment that’s ideal for preserving delicate organics such as textiles or paper,” says Harris. “There is a very high probability of finding clothing or documents, some of them possibly even still legible. Rolled or folded charts in the captain’s map cupboard, for example, could well have survived.”

"The only area below decks the team was unable to access was the captain’s sleeping quarters. Apparently the last person to leave closed the door. “Intriguingly, it was the only closed door on the ship,” says Harris. “I’d love to know what’s in there.”

"Just as tantalizing is the possibility that there could be pictures of the expedition awaiting discovery. It’s known that the expedition had a daguerreotype apparatus, and assuming it was used, the glass plates could still be aboard. “And if there are, it’s also possible to develop them,” says Harris. “It’s been done with finds at other shipwrecks. The techniques are there.”

The second image are of H.M.S. Terror & H.M.S. Erebus

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 28, 2019, 03:19:13 PM »
Greta looks tired, a passage like that will do that to one who is not experienced.  see the two large poles extending outward from the sides?  Their flying a spinnaker or a light air drifter, typically a 3/4 ounce sail (light as butterfly wings).  A good nights sleep & some good food and she'll be right as rain.

bligh

 

14
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 27, 2019, 06:07:17 PM »
                                  Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events

"G.R.Brakenridge, "Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events", Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado, http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/index.html.
The information presented in this Archive is derived from news, governmental, instrumental, and remote sensing sources. The archive is "active" because current events are added immediately.
Each entry in the table and related "area affected" map outline represents a discrete flood event. However, repeat flooding in some regions is a complex phenomenon and may require a compromise between aggregating and dividing such events. The listing is comprehensive and global in scope. Deaths and displaced estimates for tropical storms are totals from all causes, but tropical storms without significant river flooding are not included.
The Archive includes: 1) an online .html table of recent events, only; 2) Excel .xlsx and .xml files for all events, 1985-present, updated as the recent events html is updated; and 3) Zip-compressed GIS MapInfo format and Shp format files, each providing flood catalog numbers, centroids, area affected outlines, and other attribute information and updated as the recent events html is updated."  ..  More within the web page/article

https://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/

bligh

 

15
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:28:37 PM »
                           Staten Island seawall: Designing for climate change
                                            Updated 14th July 2019


"By 2025, New York's Staten Island will be fortified by a towering seawall running 5.3 miles along the coast, an engineering feat designed to ward off a growing threat.
The climate crisis is predicted to create more powerful and extreme weather systems all over the world, and coastal engineers are racing to respond with structures to reduce their impact.
The first seawalls were built centuries ago, though there are now, arguably, greater assets to protect and more people living along vulnerable coastlines than ever before.
A recent report by the Center for Climate Integrity estimated it could cost the US more than $400 billion over the next 20 years to protect coastal communities."

                                                 "Staten Island's new wall
When Hurricane Sandy smashed into the US East Coast in 2012, Staten Island was overwhelmed by massive waves that swept away properties and killed 24 of the dozens of people who eventually died in the storm.
With a population of almost half a million, low-lying Staten Island was no match for the waves whipped up in New York Harbor, one of which reached a record 32.5 feet high."

"Mostly granite is being used but in some cases we are using vegetation -- a particular type of vegetation from the trees there," Pareeth said.


"The design of seawalls has evolved over time, from rock -- which is still used -- to interlocking concrete units, including the Tetrapods commonly seen in Japan. When rock isn't available, concrete can be more cost-efficient, allowing large numbers of correctly-sized parts to be produced.

"In recent years there's been a greater push towards natural solutions -- using dunes, mangroves and man-made reefs alongside man-made walls to help calm the sea.
"We're not only building a structure that is functional in an engineering sense but it's functional in an environmental sense," said Matt Eliot, a coastal engineer and direct of Seashore Engineering based in Perth, Australia. "We're using that to look for what habitats we can encourage to make it better for the plants and animals in the area."
In some cases, holes and crevices are being built into the walls to encourage nature to grow around them. Other designs seek to reduce the impact of waves before they hit."

More within the article
https://www.cnn.com/style/article/staten-island-seawall-climate-crisis-design/index.html



 

16
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 26, 2019, 10:23:26 PM »
                            "Will come back to you when i've found out how it's called."

Thank You....This past winter I shoveled snow with a broom, twice I think.  Spring was confusing for the plants, cold then warm, several cold days then warm. Those warm sweet summer nights of the 50s&60s have turned into paltry steamy nightmares, punctuated by rain events approaching biblical proportions. 

Back in the 80s/90s I played a unspoken game of "birds" with a friend.  The person who saw a Robin first had to say where, when & what the bird was doing & for that won one dollar.  For years it was within days of March 15th.  Then early 2000s the game was cancelled due to fact the Birds never left. Now my bird bath along the back properity edge goes unused.  For decades I took pride in the fact that every afternoon I would lightly clean the bird bath and refill it.  Every morning the was always a bird fight to see whom would bath first....the biggest bird always went first.  Now my stone monolith sits unused awaiting a bird.

bligh 

17
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 26, 2019, 08:43:36 PM »
Released Date: 1971


18
We (where I live) had a rain event some weeks past,  it just doesn't rain any more, this rain event brought very frequent lightning strikes and heavy winds (76 MPH-122KPH) to this area, knocking-out power to 306 thousand customers. Crews from the surrounding area and as far away as Canada stormed the area to help restore power.  PSE&G (First Energy) developed a plan to mitigate this problem moving forward, no..no news plans to limit fossil fuel emissions, instead they
installed heavy metal bracing to existing wood poles. I was told the one parameter used was the age of the pole.

bligh   

19
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 22, 2019, 03:56:45 PM »
Hi Kassy .. Not everyone can evacuate, only 22% of folks living in Manhattan have private transportation and 52% of folks living in NYC have private transportation.  Some of the poorer folks in NYC have lived there for generations, meaning Aunt Jenny lives right down the block, so… nowhere to go. Now, I'm referring to Hurricane Sandy which did flood lower Manhattan and much of the five boroughs.  Some if not many of the corner bodegas ran out of food within several days, life became marginalized for many and all of this was with a 13ft storm surge.   

20
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: August 19, 2019, 04:17:21 PM »
nice response .. and, Your Very Welcome

21
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: August 18, 2019, 05:10:42 PM »
Ice sheets matter for the global carbon cycle

J. L. Wadham, J. R. Hawkings, L. Tarasov, L. J. Gregoire, R. G. M. Spencer, M. Gutjahr, A. Ridgwell & K. E. Kohfeld .. open access, nice paper

Abstract

The cycling of carbon on Earth exerts a fundamental influence upon the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, and hence global climate over millennia. Until recently, ice sheets were viewed as inert components of this cycle and largely disregarded in global models. Research in the past decade has transformed this view, demonstrating the existence of uniquely adapted microbial communities, high rates of biogeochemical/physical weathering in ice sheets and storage and cycling of organic carbon (>104 Pg C) and nutrients. Here we assess the active role of ice sheets in the global carbon cycle and potential ramifications of enhanced melt and ice discharge in a warming world.

" Only in the last 15 years have glacial systems started to be considered as active cyclers of carbon, arising from the discovery that they include a range of aquatic environments4 which host abundant and diverse populations of microorganisms5 and are hot spots for biogeochemical weathering6. These processes create the potential for ice sheets to directly or indirectly impact the global carbon cycle (Fig. 1). Direct impacts include the release of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, CO2 and methane, CH4) during the microbial respiration of organic matter (OM) stored within ice sheets. Examples of indirect impacts include the fertilisation of downstream ecosystems, promoted by either the release of nutrient-rich glacial meltwaters7,8,9 or by subglacial meltwater-induced upwelling of nutrient replete marine water at tidewater glacier margins10,11,12,13,14. Ocean fertilisation by glaciers may be accompanied by significant CO2 drawdown by phytoplankton, intensifying the biological pump15,16."

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 17, 2019, 01:57:59 PM »
The vessel is heading south east making way for the trade wind passage....I'm sure they have on board or through communication's the very best weather information possible.  Sailing, without exception, is the most environmentally friendly way to travel.  Movement without effort, traveling without burning FF.  I'm purty sure there are no cooking facilities on that vessel, every thing about that boat is about weight...   when the boat reaches a speed of 17 mph, the noise below deck becomes deafening, this is true of all sailing in heavy weather, I had ear plugs which helped a little.
I'm also sure the construction of that vessel is fossil fuel intensive, which matters not considering what the las is trying to communicate with the planet.  The British people have always been a little desperate searching for the next "hero", I'm sure we will get some over head footage, plane or helo, just as we did with Sir Francis Charles Chichester while rounding the horn.

I sincerely wish this young girl all the luck and success inher efforts to help us.

bligh

23
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 14, 2019, 02:23:01 PM »
2°C: Beyond the limit

Extreme climate change has arrived in America

"LAKE HOPATCONG, N.J. — Before climate change thawed the winters of New Jersey, this lake hosted boisterous wintertime carnivals. As many as 15,000 skaters took part, and automobile owners would drive onto the thick ice. Thousands watched as local hockey clubs battled one another and the Skate Sailing Association of America held competitions, including one in 1926 that featured 21 iceboats on blades that sailed over a three-mile course.

"These winters do not exist anymore," says Marty Kane, a lawyer and head of the Lake Hopatcong Foundation.

"A Washington Post analysis of more than a century of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration temperature data across the Lower 48 states and 3,107 counties has found that major areas are nearing or have already crossed the 2-degree Celsius mark.
— Today, more than 1 in 10 Americans — 34 million people — are living in rapidly heating regions, including New York City and Los Angeles. Seventy-one counties have already hit the 2-degree Celsius mark.

"In the past century, the Earth has warmed 1 degree Celsius. But that’s just an average. Some parts of the globe — including the mountains of Romania and the steppes of Mongolia — have registered increases twice as large. It has taken decades or in some cases a century. But for huge swaths of the planet, climate change is a present-tense reality, not one looming ominously in the distant future.

"New Jersey’s largest lake was shut down after the state’s environmental agency warned against swimming or fishing “for weeks, if not longer.”
The nation’s hot spots will get worse, absent a global plan to slash emissions of the greenhouse gases fueling climate change. By the time the impacts are fully recognized, the change may be irreversible.
 
Daniel Pauly, an influential marine scientist at the University of British Columbia, says the 2-degree Celsius hot spots are early warning sirens of a climate shift.

“Basically,” he said, “these hot spots are chunks of the future in the present.”

I checked the bridge clearance gauge again at high tide (3rd time this week) and again is showed a clearance of 48ft.  OK it was a 99 percent full Moon but still, that's about 1.5 ft higher than it was in 2005.  This is at 40N along the east coast.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/?noredirect=on

bligh



   

24
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: August 12, 2019, 03:18:35 PM »
Terry

They came through my neighborhood about 4/5 yrs ago and replaced all the low pressure lines in the street and the lines running up to the house meters.  I might think that this was a state wide effort knowing the economics of the township in which I live, still, I'm guessing here.

I see we have some shared history, I've a master's degree in "street"  mostly NYC downtown east side, alphabet city, dark days.  Got out in 87 just before the A-Train came into town...pure luck.

I do not have, nor could I guess at a reasonable response to our current FF problem only that I might think that we should STOP digging the crap up and let the cards fall will they will.
I would prefer a controlled decent into chaos rather than let's just set the planet on fire.

bligh   

25
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:18:53 PM »
The Leaks That Threaten the Clean Image of Natural Gas
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082635

 Abstract
Urban emissions remain an underexamined part of the methane budget. Here we present and interpret aircraft observations of six old and leak‐prone major cities along the East Coast of the United States. We use direct observations of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ethane (C2H6), and their correlations to quantify CH4 emissions and attribute to natural gas. We find the five largest cities emit 0.85 (0.63, 1.12) Tg CH4/year, of which 0.75 (0.49, 1.10) Tg CH4/year is attributed to natural gas. Our estimates, which include all thermogenic methane sources including end use, are more than twice that reported in the most recent gridded EPA inventory, which does not include end‐use emissions. These results highlight that current urban inventory estimates of natural gas emissions are substantially low, either due to underestimates of leakage, lack of inclusion of end‐use emissions, or some combination thereof.....more within the article.
Sorry if this was posted b4...did not see it in search




26
Antarctica / Re: The Ross Ice Shelf Thread
« on: August 02, 2019, 06:05:53 PM »
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL084123

Ross Ice Shelf Icequakes Associated with Ocean Gravity Wave Activity


Z. Chen P.D. Bromirski P. Gerstoft R.A. Stephen W.S. Lee S. Yun S.D. Olinger R.C. Aster
D.A. Wiens A.A. Nyblade
First published: 01 August 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084123


Abstract

Gravity waves impacting ice shelves illicit a suite of responses that can affect ice shelf integrity. Broadband seismometers deployed on the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), complemented by a near‐icefront seafloor hydrophone, establish the association of strong icequake activity with ocean gravity wave amplitudes (AG) below 0.04 Hz. The RIS‐front seismic vertical displacement amplitudes (ASV) are well‐correlated with AG, allowing estimating the frequency‐dependent transfer function from gravity wave amplitude to icefront vertical displacement amplitude (TGSV (f)). TGSV (f) is 0.6‐0.7 at 0.001‐0.01 Hz, but decreases rapidly at higher frequencies. Seismicity of strong icequakes exhibits spatial and seasonal associations with different gravity wave frequency bands, with the strongest icequakes observed at the icefront primarily during the austral summer when sea ice is minimal and swell impacts are strongest.

see also..pdf.. open access...Annals of Glaciology 53(60) 2012  doi: 10.3189/2012AoG60A058
Response of the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, to oceangravity-wave forcing
This is a much more complete paper with lotsof purty images and graphs.

bligh


27
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic images
« on: August 01, 2019, 07:42:10 PM »
Our aquatic friends appear to b a little nervous

28
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fcomm.2019.00036/full

Science and Environmental Communication on YouTube: Strategically Distorted Communications in Online Videos on Climate Change and Climate Engineering

This contribution presents results from an exploratory research project that investigates whether videos found on YouTube adhere to or challenge scientific consensus views. Ten search terms were employed to search for and analyze 200 videos about climate and climate modification topics, which are contested topics in online media. The online anonymization tool Tor has been used for the randomization of the sample and to avoid personalization of the results. A heuristic qualitative classification tool was set up to categorize the videos in the sample. Eighty-nine videos of the 200 videos in the sample are supporting scientific consensus views about anthropogenic climate change, and climate scientists are discussing climate topics with deniers of climate change in four videos in the sample. Unexpectedly, the majority of the videos in the sample (107 videos) supports worldviews that are opposing scientific consensus views...more within the article

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29
Antarctica / Re: EAIS Contributions to SLR by 2100
« on: July 27, 2019, 08:44:09 PM »
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308389094_Windblown_Pliocene_diatoms_and_East_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet_retreat

Windblown Pliocene diatoms and East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat

Article (PDF Available) in Nature Communications 7:12957 · September 2016 with 113 Reads
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12957

Robert M DeDonto, David Pollard, Richard B Alley, Reed P Sherer

Marine diatoms in tillites along the Transantarctic Mountains (TAMs) have been used to suggest a diminished East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) during Pliocene warm periods. Updated ice-sheet modelling shows significant Pliocene EAIS retreat, creating marine embayments into the Wilkes and Aurora basins that were conducive to high diatom productivity and rapid accumulation of diatomaceous sediments. Here we show that subsequent isostatic uplift exposed accumulated unconsolidated marine deposits to wind erosion. We report new atmospheric modelling utilizing Pliocene climate and derived Antarctic landscapes indicating that prevailing mid-altitude winds transported diatoms towards the TAMs, dominantly from extensive emerged coastal deposits of the Aurora Basin. This result unifies leading ideas from competing sides of a contentious debate about the origin of the diatoms in the TAMs and their link to EAIS history, supporting the view that parts of the EAIS are vulnerable to relatively modest warming, with possible implications for future sea-level rise.

The new model presented here implies significant EAIS retreat
during the Pliocene with wind patterns that can explain the
source and mechanism for emplacement of Pliocene marine
diatoms in the TAMs by aeolian processes. Webb et al.10 initiated
an important discussion regarding dynamic behaviour of the
EAIS during the Pliocene. Although their interpretation of a
glacial origin for the diatoms in the Sirius tillites and the extent of
retreat that they inferred is not supported, we suggest that these
Pliocene marine diatoms nevertheless provide evidence of
significant EAIS retreat from the current coastline during
Pliocene warm intervals—enough to have had a significant
global impact on sea level. When this debate began, decades ago,
it was already understood that constraining past ice-sheet
dynamics is important for forecasting future behaviour in a
warming world.

More within the open access article

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30
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: July 26, 2019, 08:53:29 PM »


Sleepy, are you retired from this forum?

I posted somewhere on the forum the likely "why" Sleepy retired.

Sweden passed some rather restrictive laws about posting on forums where there is a loosely defined reference to "hate speech"  several people were convicted & fined for their participation
on these forums.  One day later Sleepy quit posting...I'm just guessing here.....

bligh

     

31
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: July 25, 2019, 02:10:21 PM »
Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for US Coastal Real Estate

'Hundreds of thousands of homes are at risk of chronic flooding due to sea level rise over the coming decades. The implications for coastal residents, communities, and the economy are profound. 

"Sea levels are rising. Tides are inching higher. High-tide floods are becoming more frequent and reaching farther inland. And hundreds of US coastal communities will soon face chronic, disruptive flooding that directly affects people's homes, lives, and properties.

'Yet property values in most coastal real estate markets do not currently reflect this risk. And most homeowners, communities, and investors are not aware of the financial losses they may soon face.

A threshold of disruption
Long before rising seas permanently submerge properties, millions of Americans living in coastal communities will face more frequent and disruptive high-tide flooding. As this flooding increases, it will reach a threshold where normal routines become impossible and coastal residents, communities, and businesses are forced to make difficult, often costly choices.

Billions of dollars of property at risk
The analysis finds that:
More than 300,000 of today's coastal homes, with a collective market value of about $117.5 billion today, are at risk of chronic inundation in 2045—a timeframe that falls within the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage issued today. Approximately 14,000 coastal commercial properties, currently assessed at a value of roughly $18.5 billion, are also at risk during that timeframe.

The risks of rising seas are profound. Many of the challenges they bring are inevitable. And our time to act is running out. There is no simple solution—but we do still have opportunities to limit the harms. Whether we react to this threat by implementing science-based, coordinated, and equitable solu­tions—or walk, eyes open, toward a crisis—is up to us right now.






32
We had a heatwave here last week, peaking on Saturday with 104F (40c) with a "feels like" of a million f….ing degrees.  Ok ok we all see/experience a little heat wave once and awhile.  Sunday was cooling off day and Monday was forecasted to rain … so, ok, a little rain, a good thing, right?  It doesn't just rain any more, this rain brought 70mph wind that knock-out power to 360,000 folks across NJ.  The power (A/C) just came back on 30 minutes ago.  Awhile back, say 2013 I had read a paper called Climate disruption date or some such crap…the paper called DC and NY as having a date of 2047 meaning one would not recognize the place due to climate change in 2047, bullsh!t, it's 2019 and I hardly recognize a place where I've lived for 40 yrs.

bligh

Staying cool Vox…thanks

33
Antarctica / Re: Melt water in Antarctica
« on: July 15, 2019, 06:47:43 PM »
#1 Nansen ice shelf

#2 Blood Falls is an outflow of an iron oxide-tainted plume of saltwater, flowing from the tongue of Taylor Glacier onto the ice-covered surface of West Lake Bonney in the Taylor Valley of the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Victoria Land, East Antarctica.
Iron-rich hypersaline water sporadically emerges from small fissures in the ice cascades. The saltwater source is a subglacial pool of unknown size overlain by about 400 metres (1,300 ft) of ice several kilometers from its tiny outlet at Blood Falls.

34
Arctic background / Re: Antarctic Expeditions
« on: July 14, 2019, 02:18:26 PM »
Biostabilization of sewage sludge in the Antarctic
Carlos Banchón (a1), Tamara Borodulina (a1), Paola Posligua (a2) (a3) (a4) and Miguel Gualoto (a2) (a3)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954102019000221
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 10 June 2019

Extract
Antarctica is no longer a pristine environment due to atmospheric pollution, fuel spills, inadequate waste management and wastewater discharges from anthropogenic activities (Harris 1998, Stark et al. 2015). Approximately 37% of the permanent stations and 69% of the summer stations lack any form of sewage treatment (Gröndahl et al. 2009). The characteristics of wastewater from stations are also of concern because they are a complex mix of contaminants containing human waste, cosmetics, viruses, dyes, detergents, medications, chemicals from laboratories and even microplastics (Bhardwaj et al. 2018). In Antarctica, treatment plants discharge treated water into the sea and then sludge is packed and sealed into drums for later shipment to Chile. Nevertheless, sewage sludge (c. 59–88% organic matter) could become a biosolid instead of being a waste if correctly stabilized. The Ecuadorian Antarctic station ‘Pedro Vicente Maldonado’ produced c. 200 kg of sewage sludge during expeditions in 2017 and 2018. Thus, the aim of the present study was to biostabilize sewage sludge using two methods (one thermal and one biological) at the Ecuadorian Antarctic station. As a result, the stabilization of sewage sludge produced a biosolid that was easier and more cost effective to transport, avoiding odour problems.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/antarctic-science/article/biostabilization-of-sewage-sludge-in-the-antarctic/FD4C4452CCC0F9EFE1CBF59225F41635

35
Antarctica / Re: Discussion of the Antarctic Peninsula
« on: July 13, 2019, 04:32:24 PM »
Zooplankton and micronekton respond to climate fluctuations in the Amundsen Sea polynya, Antarctica

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-46423-1

Abstract
The vertical migration of zooplankton and micronekton (hereafter ‘zooplankton’) has ramifications throughout the food web. Here, we present the first evidence that climate fluctuations affect the vertical migration of zooplankton in the Southern Ocean, based on multi-year acoustic backscatter data from one of the deep troughs in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica. High net primary productivity (NPP) and the annual variation in seasonal ice cover make the Amundsen Sea coastal polynya an ideal site in which to examine how zooplankton behavior responds to climate fluctuations. Our observations show that the timing of the seasonal vertical migration and abundance of zooplankton in the seasonally varying sea ice is correlated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Zooplankton in this region migrate seasonally and overwinter at depth, returning to the surface in spring. During +SAM/La Niña periods, the at-depth overwintering period is shorter compared to −SAM/El Niño periods, and return to the surface layers starts earlier in the year. These differences may result from the higher sea ice cover and decreased NPP during +SAM/La Niña periods. This observation points to a new link between global climate fluctuations and the polar marine food web.

Introduction
Zooplankton are an essential link between primary producers and higher trophic levels. The vertical migration of zooplankton moves a massive biomass within the water column with impacts on trophic interactions and biogeochemical cycles1,2. Zooplankton feed on primary producers, repackaging organic matter into rapidly sinking fecal pellets, and their vertical migration can be an important mechanism for carbon export and sequestration to depth3. Active vertical migration of zooplankton could contribute up to a 14% increase in carbon sinking from the euphotic zone into deeper water4.

Rapid climate change has been shown to drive significant physical and ecological changes9,10,11,12. In the Southern Ocean, these changes include ocean warming13, glacial melt and retreat14, and sea ice loss15. These alterations of the marine environment impact phytoplankton16,17,18, zooplankton19,20,21,22, fish, and penguins23,24, although the relative roles of climate and overfishing have complicated the interpretation of higher predator responses. The region’s annual variability of phytoplankton biomass and sea ice concentration (SIC) is closely related to climate shifts25,26. ENSO and SAM are significant drivers of the trend of SIC and thereby help to control the conditions for phytoplankton growth. The Amundsen Sea is located in one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth27. This region is presently undergoing a rapid reduction in sea ice16 and retreat and thinning of glaciers28,29 and harbors one of the most productive coastal polynyas (per unit area) in the Southern Ocean30.
Here, we present results obtained from satellite remote sensing (surface solar radiation (SSR), SIC and NPP) and subsurface moored instrumentation (acoustic backscatter and sediment traps) from 2010 to 2013 (see Methods for a detailed description of the measurements). These results represent the longest existing continuous record of acoustic backscatter from a highly productive polynya, coinciding with a period of cooling and heavy sea ice years.

During our study, the Amundsen Sea shelf area had a seasonal ice cover with an expanding polynya from January to March (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. S1). Between 2010 and 2013, the mean NPP in the area peaked in January (Supplementary Fig. S2), co-varying with the SIC and SSR (Fig. 1a). The mean NPP (nearly all taking place during summer) decreased from 789 to 493 mg C m−2 d−1 between 2010 and 2013. During the same period, the mean SIC increased by 15%. The interannual variation in SIC was strongly correlated to the summertime NPP (r = −0.73, p < 0.05) and the annual NPP peak as expected31 coincided with the SIC minimum. This implies that the intense phytoplankton bloom is triggered by the increase in open water area (Supplementary Fig. S3).



36
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: July 12, 2019, 05:05:59 PM »
U.S. ties record for number of high tide flooding days in 2018

https://phys.org/news/2019-07-ties-high-tide-days.html?utm_source=nwletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-nwletter

"Coastal communities across the U.S. continued to see increased high tide flooding last year, forcing their residents and visitors to deal with flooded shorelines, streets and basements—a trend that is expected to continue this year. The elevated water levels affected coastal economies, tourism and crucial infrastructure like septic systems and stormwater systems, according to a new NOAA report.

"U.S. coastal communities are faced with mounting challenges as sea levels rise," says Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA's National Ocean Service. "NOAA's tide gauge observations not only ensure safe maritime navigation but are now providing critical information about changes in coastal flood risk to help communities prepare for and plan for a more resilient future."
According to the report, nationally, five days of high tide flooding occurred within coastal communities, tying the record set in 2015. Flood days broke records in the Northeast, with a median of 10 days, and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico at five days, due to a combination of active nor'easter and hurricane seasons combined with sea level rise.

"NOAA has identified more than 40 locations whose annual rates of high tide flooding are rapidly increasing. Annual rates at 25 other locations are also trending upwards but more gradually. These increases suggest a much wetter future for many coastal areas.

the Northeast Atlantic could see a 140 percent increase,
the Southeast could see a 190 percent increase, and
the Western Gulf of Mexico could see a 130 percent increase.
El Nino conditions that are predicted to persist through 2019 are a factor which contribute to the increase, along with continued sea level rise.
By 2030, long-term projections show seven to 15 days of high-tide flooding nationally. By 2050, the number rises to 25 to 75 days.
NOAA maintains ocean observing infrastructure, including more than 200 permanent water level stations on the U.S. coasts and Great Lakes, and is the nation's authoritative source for historic and real-time data, forecasts, predictions, and scientific analyses that protect life, the economy and the environment on the coast.

I reside in this type of area, where nuisance flooding (nuisance...strange word used to describe a condition that will destroy one's automobile in 2-3 yrs) .. I attend many (all) township meetings concerning engineering solutions to this and other on-going engineering projects.  I've happily achieved the label "trouble maker" .. my ongoing disagreement with one such project has coast the township (us) 75 grand and this continues.  Why? human compliancy/stupidity.

bligh

37
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: July 10, 2019, 02:29:10 PM »
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/06/cicadas-high-fungi-drugs-won-t-stop-mating?utm_campaign=news_daily_2019-07-09&et_rid=54875624&et_cid=2898708

Cicadas high on fungus drugs won’t stop mating

In a scene fit for a horror film, paperclip-size cicadas sexually transmit a fungus attached to their bodies from one mate to another, sometimes losing parts of their abdomens along the way. Now, new research reveals just how the fungus keeps those cicadas mating, Science News reports. Massospora cicadina, which forms a spore that erupts through the insects’ abdomen, produces the hallucinogen psilocybin and the amphetamine cathinone. These two drugs curb the critters’ appetites, letting them mate over and over again even after losing parts of their bodies, researchers report this week in Fungal Ecology. Scientists plan to next study how the fungus produces the drugs—and whether they influence other aspects of insects’ behavior.

On the streets: word is several large drug company's are in phase one human trials with this
new drug  ;)




 


38
Antarctica / Re: Discussion of the Antarctic Peninsula
« on: June 26, 2019, 04:28:31 PM »
Erosion and deposition beneath the Subantarctic Front since the Early Oligocene
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-45815-7

Published: 26 June 2019....open access

Abstract
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) spills across the Falkland Plateau into the South Atlantic as a series of high-velocity jets. These currents are a driving force for global overturning circulation, and affect climate by modulating CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and ocean, but their timing of onset remains controversial. We present new evidence of strong currents associated with the Subantarctic Front (SAF) jet since the earliest Oligocene (~34 Ma) based on a widespread erosional surface on the Falkland Plateau, preserved below a 30,000 km2 contourite sand deposit. This is the largest such feature ever to be recognized, and provides the most robust constraint of the initiation of the SAF to date. By contrast, the South Falkland Slope Drift is dominated by contourite mud of Pleistocene-Recent age, substantially younger than previous estimates, indicating a significant decrease in long-term current strength at that time. As ACC strength is primarily a function of the position of the South-Westerly Winds, our data indicates that associated currents are likely to increase substantially in a warming world. Likely implications include increased upwelling and associated carbon flux from the deep ocean to the atmosphere, a positive feedback loop not included in most future projections of atmospheric CO2.

Kraken breath?

I attached two Figures....more within the document 

Figure 1

(A) Topographic features, plate tectonic and oceanographic setting of the Falkland Plateau (FP; outline in black dashed line), showing locations of main fronts of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, including the Subantarctic Front (SAF), Polar Front (PF) and Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF)15. The yellow star shows the location of the 54–54 passage, where the SAF crosses the North Scotia Ridge between Burdwood Bank and Davis Bank. Image created using GeoMapApp. (B) Salinity and velocity data across the Falkland Plateau from the World Ocean Atlas, created using Ocean Data View software48. Blue dashed line shows the pycnoclines between water masses, including Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), and Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW). White dashed lines are velocity contours (in cm/s), measured using acoustic doppler current profilers on a parallel transect17, and show the location of the SAF and the PF. FT is the Falkland Terrace (C) Location map of the western Falkland Plateau showing depth contours (in metres), seismic and well data, and main sedimentary/geomorphological features associated with the SAF, including the main contourite drifts and the Falkland Terrace and the individual sand deposits that make up the Falkland Sand Sheet, based on the presence of high impedance seismic packages with distinct geomorphological features at the seafloor. SFSD – South Falkland Slope Drift; LFSD – Lower Falkland Slope Drift.

Figure 3
Seismic attributes from 3D data across the Falkland Terrace and Falkland Sand Sheet. Locations of the FINA (A) and FISA (B) survey are shown in Fig. 1. Attributes include depth, dip angle and absolute amplitude for both surveys, as well as an isopach (sediment thickness) map of the sand sheet for the FINA survey. ‘Warm’ colours (green-red) on the amplitude maps represent sand, which has a higher acoustic impedance than shale near the seafloor. The main geomorphological features annotated on the maps include individual sand sheets (ss), sand ribbons (sr), circular-elliptical scours (cs), erosional remnants (er) and escarpments (es), all of which are produced by bottom currents associated with the Subantarctic Front.




39
Policy and solutions / Re: Global economics and finances - impacts
« on: June 21, 2019, 11:30:36 PM »

June 21, 2019
How climate change impacts the economy


"The Fourth National Climate Assessment, published in 2018, warned that if we do not curb greenhouse gas emissions and start to adapt, climate change could seriously disrupt the U.S. economy. Warmer temperatures, sea level rise and extreme weather will damage property and critical infrastructure, impact human health and productivity, and negatively affect sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries and tourism. The demand for energy will increase as power generation becomes less reliable, and water supplies will be stressed. Damage to other countries around the globe will also affect U.S. business through disruption in trade and supply chains."

"if global temperatures rose 2.8˚ C from pre-industrial levels by 2100, and if they increased by 4.5˚ C. The study projected that if the higher-temperature scenario prevails, climate change impacts on these 22 sectors could cost the U.S. $520 billion each year. If we can keep to 2.8˚ C, it would cost $224 billion less. In any case, the U.S. stands to suffer large economic losses due to climate change, second only to India, according to another study. "

"For example, it's not just whether a building is underwater or not," he said. "What's important are the harder-to-define things like when does societal risk perception shift? It may be that buildings lose their value before the water actually arrives, once people realize that eventually the water's going to arrive. We need deeper thinking about the interconnection between physical and social systems."
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-climate-impacts-economy_1.html

bligh


40
Antarctica / Re: Discussion of the Antarctic Peninsula
« on: June 21, 2019, 02:27:19 PM »
Role of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in West Antarctic Decadal Climate Variability

First published: 23 May 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082108

Abstract
Regional atmospheric circulation along coastal West Antarctica associated with the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) mediates ice shelf melt that governs Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise. In this study, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is identified as a significant driver of ASL variability on decadal time scales. Using the Community Earth System Model, we impose a positive sea surface temperature anomaly in the SPCZ that reproduces an increase in convective rainfall in the southwest SPCZ that has been observed in recent decades, consistent with the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Many of the major climate shifts across West Antarctica during the 2000‐2014 period when the IPO was negative can be explained via a teleconnection over the ASL emanating from the SPCZ. Knowledge of these relationships significantly enhances our understanding and interpretation of past and future West Antarctic climate variability.

Plain Language Summary
Heavy convective rainfall in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) alters the regional atmospheric circulation along coastal West Antarctica, impacting the regional climate and potentially driving warm ocean water upwelling that melts ice shelves. Increases in SPCZ rainfall cause cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and warming across the Ross Ice Shelf and portions of East Antarctica. Such conditions were observed during the 2000‐2014 period in which the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability, was negative. The influence of the SPCZ on West Antarctic climate is consistent with observed shifts in West Antarctic climate over the period 2000‐2014. Therefore, the SPCZ, though a tropical climate feature, is found to be an important driver of West Antarctic climate on decadal time scales governed by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL082108

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41
Antarctica / Re: The Ross Ice Shelf Thread
« on: June 21, 2019, 02:05:43 PM »
Tidal and Thermal Stresses Drive Seismicity Along a Major Ross Ice Shelf Rift

First published: 23 May 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082842

Abstract
Understanding deformation in ice shelves is necessary to evaluate the response of ice shelves to thinning. We study microseismicity associated with ice shelf deformation using nine broadband seismographs deployed near a rift on the Ross Ice Shelf. From December 2014 to November 2016, we detect 5,948 icequakes generated by rift deformation. Locations were determined for 2,515 events using a least squares grid‐search and double‐difference algorithms. Ocean swell, infragravity waves, and a significant tsunami arrival do not affect seismicity. Instead, seismicity correlates with tidal phase on diurnal time scales and inversely correlates with air temperature on multiday and seasonal time scales. Spatial variability in tidal elevation tilts the ice shelf, and seismicity is concentrated while the shelf slopes downward toward the ice front. During especially cold periods, thermal stress and embrittlement enhance fracture along the rift. We propose that thermal stress and tidally driven gravitational stress produce rift seismicity with peak activity in the winter.

Plain Language Summary
In Antarctica, large bodies of floating ice called ice shelves help prevent ice on land from sliding into the ocean. To predict how Antarctica might respond to climate change, we need to understand how ice shelves interact with the environment, including the atmosphere and the ocean. The largest ice shelf, the Ross Ice Shelf, is over 500,000 km2 in area, making it the largest body of floating ice in the world. In this study, we deployed nine seismographs, the same instruments used to study earthquakes, to monitor vibrations and cracking within the Ross Ice Shelf over a 2‐year period. During that time, the instruments detected nearly 6,000 fracture events along a 120‐km‐long crack in the ice shelf. We compared the timing of the cracking to air temperature data, ocean wave activity, and tides to see whether these factors influenced the crack's behavior. We found that fracture occurs most frequently just after high tide during winter and when the air is very cold. We also found that fracture at the rift is not triggered by ocean waves. This work demonstrates that Antarctic ice shelves are very sensitive to the environment and highlights the need to continue studying them.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019GL082842

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42
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: June 21, 2019, 05:24:03 AM »
METHANE BUBBLE ESCAPE FROM GAS HORIZON IN MUDDY AQUATIC SEDIMENT UNDER PERIODIC WAVE LOADING

First published: 14 June 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083100

Abstract
Ebullition of greenhouse methane (CH4) from the aquatic sediments is often observed at various hydrostatic pressure drops: at low tides, waves, and even at atmospheric pressure drops. It is especially pronounced at the different vent structures, e.g., pockmarks, mud volcanoes, and cold seeps. The modelling conducted in the current study suggests that long timescale (glacial to centennial frequency) sea level drops may induce “stable” bubble ascent and control the position of the gas horizon in muddy aquatic sediment. Bubbles escape in the “dynamic” regime from the shallow gas horizon and subsequently to the water column is more feasible under shorter‐period waves of higher amplitude travelling in shallow water. Otherwise, they will ascend in the “stable” regime remaining close to the gas horizon. These findings are illustrated by examples of various vent structures (e.g., pockmarks), pronounced in shallow straits and bays, described in the literature.

Plain Language Summary
 
Release of greenhouse methane bubbles is often observed at various hydrostatic pressure drops: at low tides, waves, and even at atmospheric pressure drops in marine and lacustrine settings. It is pronounced at the different vent structures, e.g., pockmarks, mud volcanoes, and cold seeps. It has been shown that long timescale (glacial to centennial frequency) sea level drops induce a stable bubble ascent and control a position of the gas horizon in muddy aquatic sediment. Bubble escape from the gas horizon is more feasible under shorter‐period (internal and surface) waves of higher amplitude travelling in shallow water. In this case the bubble starts a rapid unrestricted ascent and will ultimately be released into the water column. Otherwise, the bubble will migrate in the stable regime remaining close to the gas horizon. These findings are illustrated by examples of various vent structures (e.g., pockmarks), especially emphasized in shallow straits and bays, described in the literature. These important insights improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle in general, and of bubble ascent from the gas horizon in aquatic sediment, in particular.

2bad this is not open access....Id post it over on the forum
Wait.. what?  Oh, I already did   

bligh

43
The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: June 20, 2019, 03:50:13 AM »
Global warming has increased global economic inequality
Noah S. Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke

PNAS May 14, 2019 116 (20) 9808-9813; first published April 22, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1816020116

"Significance
We find that global warming has very likely exacerbated global economic inequality, including ∼25% increase in population-weighted between-country inequality over the past half century. This increase results from the impact of warming on annual economic growth, which over the course of decades has accumulated robust and substantial declines in economic output in hotter, poorer countries—and increases in many cooler, wealthier countries—relative to a world without anthropogenic warming. Thus, the global warming caused by fossil fuel use has likely exacerbated the economic inequality associated with historical disparities in energy consumption. Our results suggest that low-carbon energy sources have the potential to provide a substantial secondary development benefit, in addition to the primary benefits of increased energy access."

Abstract
Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17–31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries’ energy consumption."

"The impact of historical warming on economic inequality is of particular concern (2). There is growing evidence that poorer countries or individuals are more negatively affected by a changing climate, either because they lack the resources for climate protection (3) or because they tend to reside in warmer regions where additional warming would be detrimental to both productivity and health."

"Recent research has identified pathways by which changes in climate can affect the fundamental building blocks of economic production (11, 12). Empirical work has included sector-specific analyses of agriculture, labor productivity, and human health (12), as well as analyses of aggregate indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP) (4, 13)."

"Here, we build on past work linking economic growth and fluctuations in temperature (4, 14) to quantify the impact of historical anthropogenic climate forcing on the global distribution of country-level per capita GDP (Materials and Methods and Fig. 1). We use the Historical and Natural climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (20) to quantify the temperature trajectory of different countries in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We then combine these counterfactual country-level temperature trajectories with empirically derived nonlinear temperature–GDP response functions to calculate the counterfactual per capita GDP of individual countries over the past half century. Finally, we use those counterfactual country-level economic trajectories to calculate the impact of historical anthropogenic forcing on population-weighted country-level economic inequality, accounting for both uncertainty in the relationship between temperature and economic growth and uncertainty in the climate response to historical forcing."

More within the open access paper....



































44
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 18, 2019, 05:50:55 PM »
Can’t we all just agree that it is the guys fault for dying? >:(
Not to be dificult but I don't blame him. I once was helping someone move the temperature was 43 C and we were moving them up two flights of stairs. After a bit everyone else left and I didn't even realize it. Apparently I was working alone for about an hour and half without rest or water. When they asked why I didn't take a break or stop I was confused by the question and couldn't answer. My ability to think was just gone. If someone hadn't stopped me when they did I probably would have died that day. Now I know I have to hydrate and rest on hot days before I feel I need a break.

On the second day out Sailing from Darwin Australia to Christmas Island (about 1400NM due West) the wind died entirely , no wind. This was unusual as the Historical piolet charts suggested a 85% east to south east wind.  The trades were gone and their we sat, at night one could see a strong glow of Orange to the North ..East Timor was on fire due to civil unrest.

We were about 11 deg south of the equator, the air was stagnant, the surface of the Ocean had turned milk white, sea snakes seemed common slithering across the surface.  The thermometer was pinned at above 110 deg F.  About the third day of this hellish nightmare we (my son and I) cocooned the aft portion of the vessel trying to keep the sun off of us. 

Their was most definitely some mental gymnastics going on …  after 30 min sitting on deck I would decide nothing could be as bad as this and go inside the vessel, 30 min later, I would decide nothing could be as bad as this and go back outside. I had thought about jumping into the water to cool off, but the water seemed so uninviting.

Weather forecasting out of Guam was gone likely due to conditions in the Atmosphere D layer which propagate single bounce.  We were out of range of VHF weather forecasting from Australia and high seas marine weather forecasting transmitted  from Diego Garcia was absent.  On and on this went for 12 days, my son , half my age seemed to handle this better, less agitated he was.

I left the SSB on the 8meg band during the day and 14meg band evening and night.
Eventually we picked up vessel chatter some 800NM west. They suggested there was wind 300 NM west of our position, I had fuel for 600 NM in flat water.  Normally rule no 1 was- do not start engine without enough fuel to reach destination-.  The HEAT was horrible with no relief on board, no refrigeration… I'm sure I was slightly delirious, even desperate because I did start the engine and motored for three days at 5 knts.

I cannot express in words how we felt when the wind came, the sails fluttered and snapped full…this hellish nightmare was over.  Without some kind of protection from the heat at the very least cool or cold liquids one's mental capacity drops off rapidly.

45
Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:38:08 AM »
Receding Chilean glacier a sign of accelerating climate change



"In the space of just two weeks, two large icebergs broke off the Grey Glacier in Chilean Patagonia—a sign of accelerating climate change, experts say.

The Grey Glacier is one of the main sights in the Torres del Paine national park popular with tourists and hikers.
A giant iceberg the size of six football pitches—8.8 hectares (22 acres)—broke away from the glacier on February 20 and another six hectare piece detached on March 7.
It marks the first time two icebergs of such great size have broken off in such quick succession.
The 270 square kilometer (104 square mile) glacier receded by 500 meters (550 yards), more than half the amount lost over the previous decade.
A smaller iceberg detached in 2017 but Ricardo Jana, a scientist at the Chilean Antarctic Institute, said "the loss of mass over the previous years was definitely smaller than this year."
Scientists following the glacier's evolution say it lost around two kilometers in the last 30 years.
A United Nations study in 2018 found that 95 percent of Chile's 24,100 glaciers had receded.
Scientists say that unusually warm summer temperatures—up to 31 degrees Celsius in Patagonia—and high rainfall weakened the glacier's walls.
"The receding of the glaciers coincides with the increased temperatures that we've noticed in the region," said Inti Gonzalez, a glaciologist at the Cequa Foundation that studies geology in Patagonia and the Antarctic.
Higher rainfall also accelerates the glacier melt while raising the level of the eponymous lake where the glacier is found.


Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2019-03-receding-chilean-glacier-climate.html#jCp



46
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 10, 2019, 02:32:22 PM »
I've some friends who are transiting the Beagle channel right now……2 days ago they said it was 92Deg.  Imagine, I'm sure they went out and purchased some expensive cold weather gear, turns out ..  shorts and flip flops would have worked as well.

47
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: January 15, 2019, 03:36:08 PM »
SLR is more along the East Coast US.

48
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: November 13, 2018, 05:01:17 AM »
Agreed. ASLR's posts around Antarctica was the reason I started reading here in late 2013. I don't follow the political threads. All the best whatever you decide ASLR.



+1

49
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 10, 2018, 04:24:42 PM »
I hardly know what to say about such horror and tragedy.

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