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Messages - Lord M Vader

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:48:21 PM »
The latest forecast from both GFS and EC is just BRUTAL. If this high pressure dome manages to hold out for the next 10 days, this season should very likely end up among the top 5 melting seasons. In the unlikely event that the GFS run would be able to hold for the next two weeks, or more, we should prepare for an ONSLAUGHT of the sea ice.

Was it back in 2015 we had an impressive high pressure that compensated for the cold June?

Friv will most likely come up with a very colorful language soon😎

2
Arctic sea ice / The 2020 melting season
« on: March 13, 2020, 10:24:24 PM »
The last couple of days have seen a decline in the sea ice extent in Arctic, mostly confined to peripheral areas. Whether this downward trend is signaling the "onset" of the melting is an open question. However, we are in the middle of March and this year the upcoming weeks will probably be terribly slow for most of us. So, if Neven is OK with maning an exception for this year I hope we can start the discussions about the 2020 melting season.

The strong polar vortex that bottled up the cold air over the central Arctic basin should have strengthened the ice enough to make the 2020 minimum end up higher than the last few years. At least if we Have a moderately bad summer.

I hope everyone in here will be with us through the whole season and many more years ahead. Stay safe out there!

//LMV

<edit Neven: I don't have time to follow current events in the Arctic, so I can't assess whether it's too early for this thread or not, which means I'll leave it open. I did adjust the title though. If there's a second max, this is on you, LMV.  ;) >

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2019, 10:27:10 AM »
Apparently, Neven didn't reopen my refreezing thread that was first I will reiterate my text from my post in that thread:

"First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020...."

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2019, 10:58:47 PM »
Rox: Most likely yes. NSIDC 5-day average had a minor increase today. Up from 4,153 to 4,154 million square kilometers.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 20, 2019, 10:00:59 PM »
Neven, are you reopening the refreezing thread today or tomorrow?  ;)

The fat lady has finally sung...

Great job Gerontocrat and Juan C. Garcia, thank you both 8) 8) You have earned a very well deserved rest now :)

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2019, 03:01:24 PM »
WOW, just WOW!!! NSIDC just came in with a big fat century break(!) Yes, a CENTURY BREAK(!!) How many times Have THAT happened at this time at year, or at least in September?😵 Anyone who knows?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2019, 06:46:23 AM »
An amazingly surprising end of the 2019 melting season! Let's see if NSIDC manages to go second lowest too.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:26:29 AM »
A lot of weather action the next 10 days according to EC 00z op run! The Atlantic sector will take a really big hit the first five days. And by the end of the forecast run EC hints of a possible bombcyclone over Kara Sea followed by a big dipole.

 

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2019, 10:36:23 AM »
There is already a thread for the upcoming freezing season that I started a couple of days ago. And that thread was blocked by Mr. Neven😁

10
Arctic sea ice / 2020 refreezing season
« on: August 16, 2019, 07:55:14 PM »
While it might be somewhat early to discuss how the upcoming refreezing season will evolve I will at least open up the topic for discussion as the melting season is quickly winding down.

First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020....

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 11, 2019, 09:48:17 AM »
Latest EC op run is a disaster for the ice. The thicker ice at the Atlantic side will be flushed out right into the the toilet, e.g big ice export. While the externt numbers might not be too influenced by this weather, the volume numbers should take a serious hit.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 10:34:20 PM »
Magnamentis:  ;D ;D ;D Thanks for that, made me laugh!




13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 09:27:22 PM »
Any guesses about how big the July cliff will be?

Previous years in the bottom had lower extents for this date but not as much open waters in the "true" Arctic e.g if you exclude peripheral areas like Hudson and Baffin. The amount of energy as the open water will suck up will be astonishing and with serious consequences by fall.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 29, 2019, 12:42:57 PM »
The fourth is mankind humanity a.k.a Death.......

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 08:26:38 AM »
Michael Hauber, I wouldn't call it an improvement. The heat is just relocated and will make severe damage to the ice in CAB, CAA and Beaufort.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 16, 2019, 09:58:02 AM »
Let's hope that PIOMAS comes out with mid-month update so we get a clue about the damage.

I agree with both Neven and Friv that 2012 will be extremely unlikely to beat this year. IMO, that's not the real important thing whether we beat 2012 or not. Remember that 2012 strongly diverged from earlier years by the beginning of August when the strength of the sun is quickly vaning in the high Arctic. And it quickly refroze that fall. It's more concerning that we are getting open seas in (April) May and June, especially over deep seas, that can suck up tons of energy from the sun and delay freezing by fall and winter. I don't want to guess what kind of weather we'll get after next strong El Nino. Then we'll be in serious trouble!

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 04, 2018, 08:49:31 AM »
Whatever the final outcome will be, I'm fairly sure that we'll see an early September minimum this year.
Why? Early summer minima are due to cloudy weather (while the sun still shines). If there are open skies, there won't be an early freeze onset. So what is convincing you of the contrary?

Not sure what Lord Vader's reasoning may be, but I think we might be biased towards an early minimum because the core ice has been somewhat cooler and the fringe ice much warmer.  So late in the season the easy to melt ice will be gone and whats left will be stronger.  Still my personal opinion is that the weather near minimum would be more important.

Your are entirely correct Michael when you say that the easy ice should be gone by September whereas the thicker ice will remain solid. :) Another factor is that if this weather pattern continues into September it's more likely that we'll see an early minimum.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 08:35:49 PM »
EC 12z op forecast has the first low to 975 hpa and the other cyclone down to 971 hpa. Yes, this is going to be a wild week ahead!


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 09:09:31 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 06:47:53 PM »
As we are getting closer to the solstice it seems, at this moment, more and more likely that the the sea ice in ESS, Chukchi, Laptev, Barents and Kara Sea will take a major damage this season. OTOH, it looks like the sea ice in Beaufort, CAA and the adjacent areas north of Greenland will be spared this season.

This idea is based upon the GFS monthly forecast that hints of a more cyclonic weather pattern over the North American side while high pressure will remain in charge over the Siberian side.

Another factor is that the Arctic Oscillation has been mostly in its positive phase since 2013. In fact, the AO index hasn't been below -1 since fall 2015 (you can see the time series from 1950 to present day at ). Sooner or later we'll see more -AO dominate the weather in Arctic but right now I don't see such a switch to come.
Of course, a swing to -AO in July with a high pressure over the North American side would make potentially catastrophic damage to the sea ice as the ice thickness in this area is thinner than normal. Most of us remember the big high pressure in July 2015 that compensated for the lack of melting momentum by June.

//LMV

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 04, 2018, 09:34:43 PM »
The latest operational EC 12z forecast is completely brutal for the sea ice! Expect an onslaught in Kara-Barents Sea followed by high pressure centered in the CAB and Beaufort! The only thing that would be worse is a dipole setting up over the Arctic. No such is in sight at this moment.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2018, 08:55:20 AM »
Sorry Juan CG, but we it should be second lowest for June 3......

Thank you for posting and updating us about the SIE in Arctic :)

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 25, 2018, 09:12:46 AM »
As we now are approaching June it's highly interesting to see if the current high pressure dome is going to remain in place over the Beaufort Sea and adjacent areas. Latest ECMWF 00z op run suggests that the HP will be in charge over the next 10 days. That should continue to bring warm and sunny weather conditions that should give an upshoot to melting momentum. And if that HP stays over Arctic for another 2-3 weeks it should render some serious damage to the sea ice at the Pacific side.

The only thing that would be worse than the current forecast is if we would see a Greenland Blocking High emerge in June. That would be a disaster!

At this moment we should be very grateful that this is 2018 and not 2013 or 2017!

24
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 16, 2018, 07:34:15 PM »
While the absolute anomaly was lower for April it was the third warmest April on record. March on the other hand was the sixth warmest on record.

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