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Messages - BornFromTheVoid

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: Today at 12:37:46 PM »
Here's the sea ice concentration animation for all of September. The dynamical movements are pretty interesting to watch.
There'll be a larger, better quality version going up on my twitter page in about 2.5 hours

(Large animation, ~11mb. Click to Play)

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 30, 2020, 11:53:39 AM »
Images and animation for today.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 29, 2020, 01:42:21 PM »
And the latest images and animation.

BFTV, the last frame in the final figure (the gif), shows the total change over the period- that is itself a nice visualisation and could be a stand-alone

Here ya go

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 29, 2020, 10:56:55 AM »
And the latest images and animation.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 29, 2020, 10:53:02 AM »
Oren is correct, my chart was wrong. Need to check the rows the calculations are being performed on! The previous chart was the difference in the max to min from year to year, not the min to min.

Here's the actual minimum to minimum difference version (fingers crossed!)

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2020, 10:34:47 AM »
Today's images and animation.
Some big losses around the Chukchi region the last 2 days with southerlies dominating here. This looks likely to continue for the coming week, so definitely an area worth watching.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2020, 12:01:10 PM »
  BTV - Could do a version of the bar chart to show change from Sept Minimum to Minimum? 
That would visualize the stats posted by Oren showing what an absolute beast 2007 was.

I think this is what you're after.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2020, 05:27:20 PM »
Trend in the maximum extent minus the minimum extent.
Inset map of the 2020 max and min extent too.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2020, 11:20:16 AM »
Today's images and animation

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2020, 10:41:37 AM »
Today's images and animation, with the transformation of the Beaufort tail into the Beaufort loop, once again.
(As always, a larger version of the animation on my twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1309048320669691905)

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2020, 04:50:50 PM »
10 days of refreezing (Sep 13th to 22nd). Nearly 6mb, click to play

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2020, 10:13:07 AM »
Today's images and animation. Beaufort Sea still hasn't figured out what it's doing.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 22, 2020, 04:17:11 PM »
NSIDC indulging in bad science?

And in that report for some unknown reason NSIDC decided to split the 42 years into 3 lots of 14 years.

It's not really an unknown reason though. The main point was highlighting how anomalous the minima have been since 2007 (14 years from then to 2020), which they have been. We haven't seen any minimum since 2007 equal or be above any minima pre-2007.

However, I agree that looking at the individual linear trends in those periods was pointless, for the reasons you highlight. If they had left them out and just focused on how low the post-2007 minima have been, it would have totally ok. But adding in the linear trends just seems arbitrary and open to misinterpretation.

It just comes across as a little rushed without considering the optics.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 22, 2020, 11:57:26 AM »
Today's images and animation

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 21, 2020, 03:23:31 PM »
As it's the end of the melt season, here's all the extent projections from March 1st to last week, using daily data from the last 20 years.
A pretty big file size, click to play.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 21, 2020, 10:31:34 AM »
Today's images and animation.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 21, 2020, 09:40:53 AM »

I question the validity of a forecast so far beyond the trend line.


Strewth!  (Time to breathe into a paper bag)
Thanks, BFTV.  I think.   At first I thought there was some error, but then I realized your graph plummets so far because it goes on into 2022, and that would presuppose the current trend through 2019 and 2020 continues.  Which it could, especially if there is a poor refreeze, a possibility on many of our minds at present.  If so then that straight-line-looking decline trend, already scary, could start looking heart-stopping.

Only following the previous 10 years would produce 2 very low minima and a record low maximum, which is easy enough to envisage, though unlikely.
However, given that minima are falling at a much faster rate than maxima, it's reasonable to assume that gains will eventually accelerate to a faster rate than the 10 years average. A spread of the lowest 5 years will probably produce more realistic projections.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2020, 05:00:10 PM »
By just following the average extent gain of the last 10 years, the 365 day trailing average will drop below 10 million km2 for the first time by the end of February.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 20, 2020, 12:11:21 PM »
Latest images and animation. Ice gained in the Beaufort Sea over the previous two days has mostly disappeared now.
Will it return?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2020, 08:02:38 PM »
Animation of the annual max and min, from 1979 to present (click to play).

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2020, 12:22:22 PM »
Today's images and animation. The gains in the Beaufort Sea have persisted, so more evidence that the minimum has been passed.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 18, 2020, 04:24:24 PM »
Here's a quick summation of the 2020 melt season, at 2 week intervals. Max extent was around the March 4th, while min seems like Sept 13th (so the final period is not quite 2 weeks!).

I should probably mention the top one is an animation. Click to play!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 11:03:36 AM »
Today's images and animation. There can be little doubt now that the passed the minimum, as gains in the Beaufort Sea easily outweigh any changes elsewhere.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 12:44:18 PM »
Today's images and animation.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 16, 2020, 07:52:03 PM »
Open water pushing closer to the N. Pole again. ~492 km away near Severnaya Zemlya and 504 km, N. of Franz Joseph Land

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 16, 2020, 07:34:48 PM »
Today's images and animation (a little delayed!)


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 11:39:58 AM »
Today's images an animation.
Clear gains in the Beaufort and CAA outweighing losses along the Kara and Laptev facing ice edges.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 14, 2020, 01:31:44 PM »
With the Laptev/ESS edge dropping in concentration steadily over the last 4 days, while simultaneously having the ice edge push north, I wonder if the warmer waters are getting pushed under the remaining ice due to the persistence of the southerly winds there?
If this had been 3 weeks back, I'd expect large parts with low concentration to melt out by now. No persistent cold temperatures are forecast in this region, and southerlies look like persisting, so I'm curious to see how things pan out.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 14, 2020, 01:03:06 PM »
Today's images and animation.
We now have open water present north of 85N on sections of the pack facing the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas. Southerly winds are forecast for the Laptev region throughout 7 days on the GFS...

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 13, 2020, 12:54:28 PM »
Today's images and animation.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 12, 2020, 11:52:22 PM »
Not "home brew" in any sense, but here's an animation of the Beaufort Sea so far this month, to add to the discussion.

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 08:54:35 PM »
The problem, BFTV, in my case the criticism to WHO is all personal and is all mine. I have been receiving direct communications from WHO regarding COVID-19 thru the mass media. And the content and timing of these communications has been very, very unfortunate. I don’t have to watch videos with other’s opinions. I don’t give a damn about the WH response to WHO to start with.
We don’t need to get educated or indoctrinated for absolutely everything. Certain things are obvious to a person with certain education and rationality to judge them in one direction or another.

I honestly don't know what your criticisms are as I don't regularly participate in this thread.
The video is simply going through the reasons the US withdrew funding and examining the factual details of their claims, while dealing with related issues.
It's got nothing to do with indoctrination.

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 08:04:59 PM »
A great video dealing with many of the conspiracies and criticisms of the WHO


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 12, 2020, 12:41:26 PM »
Today's images and animation. A surprising northward shift in the ice edge north of Svalbard.
(As always, larger version of the animation on twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1304731118508429313)

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 01:53:49 PM »
Weekly sea ice losses from July 1st

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 10, 2020, 11:34:23 AM »
Today's images an animation. Those gains are easily balancing out the losses now, with the fracturing of ice in the centre of the pack a clear effect from the storm.
(larger animation on twitter)

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 11:54:20 AM »
Today's images and animation.
No sign of the storm yet...

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 01:51:21 PM »
Ice edge position over the last 14 days

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 08, 2020, 12:00:54 PM »
Today's images and animation.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 11:10:28 AM »
Latest images an animation.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 06, 2020, 02:15:00 PM »
Today's images and slow animation. A significant increase in the Beaufort sea, significant loss on the Laptev/ESS side, the main talking points.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 05, 2020, 03:48:47 PM »
Projecting forward from the 4th, if we follow the 2010 melt rate we will get down to just 122k above the 2012 minimum...

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 05, 2020, 01:11:03 PM »
Today's images and animation. Surprisingly, very little northward movement on the Atlantic side compared to recent days.
(Larger versions of the animation, as always, on the twitter page)

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 02:58:53 PM »
Today's polarview S1 to complement BFTV's analysis. 08:00 UTC
There's still some low concentration areas beyond the ice edge despite the constant 'compressional drift'

I cut out the clouds to highlight the ice edge from the sentinel image and added it to the image from earlier (red/wine coloured pixels).
Open water is now 502 km from the N. Pole

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 01:58:31 PM »
Here's the (out of date :P) image of the ice edge progression on the Atlantic side. Almost within 500km of the N. Pole now (about ~509km off).

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 12:18:16 PM »
Todays daily images and animation.
(Larger gif on the twitter page)

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 12:07:49 PM »
Latest images and animation.
(Larger, higher res version of the animation on twitter as usual)


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 06:53:23 PM »
Though ye might like this.


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 03:40:51 PM »
Cheers, SH!

With today's near double century drop, the thought of reaching the 2012 minimum begins to seem a little less far fetched.
If we follow the melt of 2010, we'll end up just 125k off 2012...

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 10:31:50 AM »
Today's daily images and animation. The loss on the Atlantic side is really beginning to stand out now.
As usual, there's a larger version of the animation on the twitter page.

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