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Messages - oren

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 24, 2019, 11:20:20 PM »
Cavity creep, I doubt the fires have much effect on the overall situation in the Arctic. I'd guess the temporary reds are clouds or some other weather artifacts, but surely the red flowing from the Siberian coast is the terrible heat there, weather related, the same heat that causes the fires.

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: June 24, 2019, 06:28:41 PM »
B_l, while I echo your sentiments regarding harmful big business, lying oil companies, limiting/banning advertising, decentralization of energy production, self sufficiency and more, I must  say that my limited experience in life has shown that solving two problems at once is vastly more difficult than separating them and solving each of them independently of the other. If we wait to solve climate change so that the solution will be according to good principles, the solution will come slower and less guaranteed. I'd much rather solve climate change and have rich oil companies maintain their wealth, than have none of both. I'd much rather have a centralized grid of 100% renewables than a decentralized renewable generation of 30% or 50%. And so on. We don't have time to be anything else other than completely pragmatic.

The forum / Re: Forum authentication broken
« on: June 22, 2019, 11:21:56 PM »
I use this URL to browse the forum from my phone with no trouble.
IIRC there was some issue with logging in in two different locations (home? login screen?) but only one of them actually worked correctly.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 22, 2019, 06:13:23 PM »
That's the plot but CT is long dead, I've yet to find a replacement for it.
I know Wipneus has replicated the CT data and even the CT regions. The data is somewhere on his site. But I've never seen this anomaly plot.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 22, 2019, 06:06:38 PM »
I remember Falco too. Rock me Amadeus!

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: June 22, 2019, 10:58:47 AM »
The Like system saves many thank you and "+1" posts and gives posters some sort of feedback. I like it.
But the ranking system is a bit inappropriate. Royalty is not democratic, and the titles can be scary to newbies.
I would change ranks to "insulting" but actually honorable titles, "community servant", "tree hugger" and so on. But I think "lurker" for long-time members who post little, and "newbie" for those newly-registered, are informative and should stay.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 21, 2019, 10:38:40 PM »
grixm, you may be a noob but you are spot on.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 21, 2019, 05:54:35 PM »
I've tried to keep quiet so as not to contribute to the noise, but please - the off-topic (though intelligent) discussions are cluttering this thread, please move them to the "meaningless season chatter" thread where they belong.
The on-topic discussions and rebuttals of Geron's boilerplate commentary should be held in the melting season thread.
(Neven - please punish me if I'm wrong. Please punish everyone else if I'm right)

The Central Arctic Basin (CAB) made a great leap forward in melting. The total of the Inner Basin as defined by Wipneus (CAB+Beaufort+Chukchi+ESS+Laptev+Kara) is showing a similar behavior, and is threatening to reach a record low.

The Inner Basin graph and trend look terrifying.  I presume the loss is so steep because while the Pacific side has opened up early, the main pack has rotated towards the Atlantic side and much ice has poured out through the Fram and adjacent openings?  Much may then depend on how much melting takes place on the Atlantic side this year.  At present the retreat of the ice front on the Atlantic side seems slow to me, but if the ice on the Atlantic side is destined to melt back to the Barents/Kara continental shelf like it did last year, then things look grim indeed.
The inner volume has actually been trending lower and crossing lines in the chart since the beginning of March (day 60). I think this is indeed the cumulative effect of the pack's rotation towards the Atlantic. The effect is even larger than appears in the data, because the CAB's volume is heavier than usual in the sector north of Svalbard and FJL. But in addition to export, the extra collapse in June came because of actual melt in the Inner Basin, due to high temps, mostly clear skies, and melt ponding.
And I agree that should the Atlantic front return to its usual location in September, crunching through all the exported ice, minimum volume numbers could be quite low.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 02:47:53 PM »
Friv, did you really begin your weather career at age 11?? I'm seriously impressed.
BTW, keep up the hyperbole, when it's coming from you it's totally believable. I find your analysis (and language) spot on.

Nares was so afraid that it blew a massive wind from the south to keep her away.

The Central Arctic Basin (CAB) made a great leap forward in melting. The total of the Inner Basin as defined by Wipneus (CAB+Beaufort+Chukchi+ESS+Laptev+Kara) is showing a similar behavior, and is threatening to reach a record low.
The CAA, a typical holdout of thick ice, is far from a record low but keeping up the melting.
The Greenland Sea is being fed by all the missing volume in the Inner Basin, keeping up volume at a time of year when it should be dropping.

Some people have use for the updated regional data files:
Thank you so much for providing this data Wipneus.
Here are some regional charts, all showing the disturbing behavior of 2019.
First the major seas inside the Arctic Basin: Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev. The Beaufort and Chukchi are both at a record low, despite the recent dispersion into the Beaufort. The ESS and Laptev both dropped sharply.

VOLUME:- We are told (and logic supports this) that as volume declines PIOMAS volume calculations get more prone to error - the freeboard amount, grid element by grid element, that is translated into thickness  becomes very small. This is then multiplied by a factor of around 10(?) to get the thickness of each element. The sensors have their limits.
(Warning: Layman's unverified explanation) Note that PIOMAS is not based on freeboard measurements by satellite sensors. PIOMAS is based on calculations of energy transfer (temps, winds, insolation, bottom melt) and ice movement. It's a model, not a measurement, although it is calibrated by NSIDC ice concentration data - when area disappears, so does part of the volume. PIOMAS model results have been compared to other ice thickness sources, and performed relatively well.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 19, 2019, 02:49:09 PM »
IIRC, what S&S found was that the methane plumes over the ESAS grew over time, rather than subside after a few days.

Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: June 19, 2019, 08:13:43 AM »
The various routes of the Northwest Passage, with thanks to Jim Hunt.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 19, 2019, 02:39:20 AM »
TeaPotty you should be ashamed of yourself. MH made a perfectly useful and informative post, and is certainly not a troll.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 01:34:18 PM »
Here is the last week in the Beaufort blender.
Great animation.
No matter what extent claims, this movement into previously warmed open water isn't good in any way for the ice. A good look at the two large floes at the bottom of the image shows them agreeing, while breaking up.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 17, 2019, 03:48:33 AM »
Happy to help 8)

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 16, 2019, 09:02:13 AM »
Good points b_l.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 16, 2019, 07:33:16 AM »
IMHO the current never stops, but the wind has a greater effect on the ice in the short term.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 09:04:29 AM »
Despite the headline extent numbers being what they are, anyone who becomes complacent at this stage is not looking at the whole picture. Look at the ice that is supposed to survive the melting season, the one in the inner basin. Look at its current area.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: June 14, 2019, 03:34:16 PM »
SMOS is known in these parts for the Uni Bremen sea ice thinness product (with some caveats, mostly reliable during winter, but showing surface wetness in summer).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 12, 2019, 06:18:25 PM »
Sambucco, and Rich, and anyone else interested in the NSIDC numbers, you can download the spreadsheet and look at the actual data.
The file contains a worksheet for the daily NH extent, and another for the 5-day averaged extent, which you can compare.
Note this is only for totals and only for extent. There's also a regional data file but it only contains 5-day averages of both extent and area data for each region.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 12, 2019, 08:35:20 AM »
The ESS joining the Laptev, with "melt-pond blue" intensifying and spreading away from the coast in the past 3 days, and temperatures in Pevek hitting 18Co and expected to remain this abnormally high in the next few days, with southerly winds blowing offshore, and clear skies.
Click to animate.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 12, 2019, 02:33:07 AM »
Here is an animation and image posted by A-Team in the Test Space thread.

Here I am testing the effectiveness of a backwards-running mp4 of the Nares funnel (or spillway), the ice in the Lincoln Sea caught up in its extended surface current (driven by sea level differences) above the Nares Strait. The movie uses near-daily Sentinel-1 images furnished by DMI from 01 May to 11 June 2019.

It would be feasible to extend the mp4 back to 15 Sept 2018 though that would require down-scaling and/or faster frame rates to keep file size manageable. the firehose effect may have pauses deep in winter and not persist the whole time.

Although DMI's interest is the waters around Greenland, the images do go far enough offshore to capture the entire funnel 165 km to the north and east, but not enough past Ellesmere Island to really determine where the exported ice originates (from along the coast or up towards the pole?).

In any event, the ice being lost is some of the thickest and oldest ice left in the Arctic Ocean. This ice sector is seldom directly set in motion by the wind (per Osisaf ice motion vectors) but this season it as been strongly pressed down against the western CAA coast by the mega-TransPolar CW rotation.

The Terra visual counterparts have quite different properties from Sentinel radar and even from the nominally identical WorldView scenes. The last 4-5 days have seen a peculiar darkening of funnel ice in Sentinel and Ascat radar; it leads to a stained glass look at optical wavelengths after reprocessing for feature-following in Gimp (crop before equalizing).

The very large floe off Ellesmere entered the scene 48 days ago. It is losing ice on the margins but still is too big to fit down the strait. Be sure to set the movie view to 'loop'.

For year-round flows through the Nares and the overall freshened water budget history of the Arctic Ocean, see:

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 11, 2019, 09:09:43 PM »
The state of the fast ice, while impressive, is not very different from previous years that had an open Kane Basin at this time of year - 2007, 2009, 2010, 2017.

Click to animate.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 04:07:59 PM »
Tim, bear in mind most of us are intelligent enough to see through false arguments and cherry picking and all that. The fact that someone posts something doesn't make it automatically accepted by the whole forum, especially if that someone is known to have a bias in a certain direction. Also bear in mind some people will always have the last word and will never admit to being wrong, having a back and forth argument is detrimental to the forum and increasing the influence of the very posts you want to prevent.
The best tactic is hit and run. Refute once, and let the readers make up their mind.
If you can't abide reading posts you think are wrong and/or misleading, it's an easy thing to add someone to your blocked list. Otherwise, deep breaths and calming exercises can do a lot of good. If you catch someone posting straight denier stuff, report to Neven and it's bye-bye and sigh of relief. This is how "Daniel B." went away.
I wish you'd stay. But if you'd rather be in a pure environment, maybe indeed this is not the place.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 11, 2019, 03:26:15 AM »
Central Arctic Basin area, the most important region for the upcoming sea ice minimum, is breaking away from the post 2012 pack. Just not in the direction most on here thought it would.
CAB area at this time of year is a proxy for the area north of the Barents and the Fram, as the rest of the CAB is still mostly 100% sea ice until the beginning of July. As this year the transpolar drift is back with a vengeance, it is no surprise that CAB area is staying on the high side. As the Chukchi + Beaufort deteriorate, it is expected that the CAB will be hit first by loss of ice from its Pacific side.

This is supported by the area numbers in the Barents and the Greenland Sea, both running high as well.

The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: June 09, 2019, 12:06:18 AM »
The problem is of course not the climate, the resources and the finite planet, all of which take decades to play out, but the humans who react in violence when some threshold is crossed, thus triggering a fast collapse over a few years.

Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: June 08, 2019, 11:57:30 PM »
All of this to reverse the emission of CO2 from the fossil fuel plant next door? Best not to emit the stuff in the first place.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 08, 2019, 11:31:44 PM »
We know the Nares is not closing again until deep into next winter. The rest is just details...

Tealight, bear in mind that in some years in August the sea ice disappears from the inner bay, and all the icebergs are swept away. I think this happens every couple of years, but haven't done the stats. This is discussed somewhere upthread. My pet theory was that the massive iceberg jam stuck in sea ice could delay calving processes and even possibly slow the glacier down slightly. Never tested it though.

On a somewhat different issue, I wonder what would happen when the separated tongue melts out, which could open up the inner bay. But in the years since separation I haven't seen any sign of the tongue shrinking, so surely this is a far future thing.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 12:49:10 PM »
In the Beaufort, it's not just insolation and the SSTs, but the movement as well. Bottom melt increases when the ice is dragged through warm water, with no chance of cooling/freshening the local surface water in which the floe is floating.

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: June 07, 2019, 11:05:24 AM »
Welcome, aperson99. Great first post. Science is important, activism is important, and doing things in the right threads is important too...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 06, 2019, 03:55:11 PM »
The St Lawrence. This little sea ignores AGW, variations in weather, ocean currents, et al and after dithering around since the middle of April, finally gives up the last of its sea ice (as near as dammit) on the same day every year - or is it NSIDC changing the mask?
A quick look at the "real" situation in St. Lawrence, as measured by UH AMSR2, shows no ice since early April. NSIDC have big problems with coastal and spurious ice, and change their mask every 1st of the month to get rid of some of the problematic data.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: June 06, 2019, 09:26:57 AM »
Just imagine what happens should civilization collapses mid-century, and no one is left to maintain all these nuclear plants and waste facilities (and huge dams and other unstable human creations requiring constant maintenance to avoid catastrophe).

I should have voted 4-4.5 but went one lower.
A lot depends on the date of refreeze, 2007 was very late and 2016 very early, hence their 0.25 difference.

Welcome back Brigantine... lots to catch up.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 06, 2019, 08:45:02 AM »
Well, Friv is much better at impersonating himself than the wannabes who tried it recently!

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: June 05, 2019, 11:13:56 AM »
The most real film about the Martian colony, which must be shown to children, it still remains "Total Recall" with Schwarzenegger. The film realistically shows both an underground colony with a glass dome and attempts to terraforming Mars by kindling underground ice.
And a three-boobed woman. Just saying.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 05, 2019, 10:53:19 AM »
Off the top of my head (and take it with a grain of salt - I've only been following this since 2014):
2007 - warmest year in the Arctic, lots of thick multi-year ice exported into the Atlantic sector never to return. The year that crashed volume.
2012 - high pressure/clear skies, causing lots of melt ponds and an extreme June cliff, and then the Great Arctic Cyclone during August finished off large regions of thin ice. The year that crashed all records and cleared out every region in September except the CAA and the Greenland Sea (and the CAB of course). Had the advantage of following 2011 which broke previous extent and volume records.
2016 - early open water inside the Arctic ocean, soaking up energy in the spring. A cold June-July stalled it, but then August saw a GAC. The year that proved 2012 was not a statistical fluke, and came very close to it in the Central Arctic Basin (see attached area chart), though ice in other regions failed to clear completely, also due to a relatively early refreeze, and extent was higher due to low compaction.

I am surely doing the answer an injustice. For 2012 and 2016 it is best to read Neven's posts in the Arctic Sea Ice Blog at the time. Not sure if there is a similar summary of the 2007 season anywhere.
There is also a multi-year NSIDC animation on Youtube that can show some of the differences. I am sure someone can post the link.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 10:31:02 AM »
Ladies and gentlemen, be scared...
PIOMAS modeled May 31st differences between this year and both 2016 and 2012 clearly show the effects of the sustained clockwise arctic-wide ice transport, as well as the ongoing export into Nares. This year has lots of extra ice facing the Atlantic sector, and still it managed to achieve 2nd lowest volume behind 2017, by way of having far less ice in the Pacific sector and in the Lincoln Sea. Most of the extra ice has already been exported to killing zones, and the rest is about to follow.
This sets up 2019 as a prime candidate for continued low volume in the coming months, and possibly competing with the extreme low September ice area of 2012 and 2016.

OTOH, the same comparison with 2017 shows that this is not a guaranteed result. That year was even lower in the central basin, but still "dodged a cannonball" in cooperation with the weather. I think two key differences are the ice transport and HP/clear skies this year, increasing the threat to the ice.
Another caveat is that this year has extra volume in the Laptev compared to both 2012 and 2017. This ice is more important in terms of the September result, and may serve as defense against new records.

All charts courtesy of Wipneus.

Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: June 05, 2019, 06:07:52 AM »
The worst short-term consequence of climate change is the rise of the Internet troll as a full-time job  :P Thank godNeven for keeping this place clean.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: June 05, 2019, 05:19:24 AM »
Collapse of human civilization (which I expect to happen by mid-century) is not the same as human extinction on Earth, which I don't expect to happen. But in any case, the risk of extinction on Mars is much higher than on Earth, once there is no supporting civilization to launch more needed stuff and send new immigrants.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 03, 2019, 03:00:58 AM »
I strongly suggest to anyone who wants to understand what is special about the 2019 melting season, to play (multiple times; in full screen) the following 2-sec animation posted by A-Team in the test space thread.

The whiter shades are those of the oldest ice. You can see the effects of sustained movement towards the Atlantic, with lots of old ice still poised at the threshold, as well as the significant cumulative effects of the Nares "sinkhole" draining the some of the ice which was saved from the Atlantic movement.

The mp4 tests whether very fast (80ms) back and forth looped display over the 15 Mar -01 Jun 2019 early melt season is visually effective in understanding cumulative sea ice motion which has been truly extraordinary the last 6-7 months.

Towards the end, it shows (rainy?) weather coming in from Alaska over the Beaufort. The file size is so small at this speed at 1.2 MB that a whole year could be shown under forum size limits, possibly even two if water and land masking had been applied.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 02, 2019, 08:25:51 AM »
Just nitpicking: while true that many years start bad and turn around, 2016 is not what I call "the ice was saved", with its ultra-low minimum area, the worst ever ice state around the Pole, and the very delayed refreeze that followed it. Ice saved only in the context that a new record was avoided, and that low compaction gave the impression of a better situation that it actually was.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 02, 2019, 07:38:42 AM »
This is the bookeeper thread, not the analysis thread.
True. And the admirable bookkeeper injects his own bits of analysis - so it has been here since time began.
But feel free to quote from here and respond in the melting season thread - a common practice as well.
My own bit while I'm here: ice melting does not equal extent loss. Armageddon in 3D can seem benign in 2D - for a while.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 31, 2019, 08:54:04 PM »
And since we are at it with the stupid question, can anyone (looking at Tor) explain to me why the floes from Lincoln are brightish and the fast ice, fast ice floes here in Kane basin are darkish in the Sentinel-1 SAR imagery?
I'd say the floes down from Lincoln are old ice with a rough surface, while the fast ice in Kane basin is first year ice that is flat and smooth and never got a chance to compress or deform thanks to its static and protected position. Just a guess though...

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: May 30, 2019, 02:35:04 PM »
New nuclear plants should not be built.  Existing nuclear plants should be maintained as much as possible until most FF plants are retired.

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