Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - weatherdude88

Pages: [1]
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 11, 2020, 03:47:51 PM »

2020-08-08  5.645  −115
2020-08-09  5.549    −96

Here we go.

NSIDC daily sea ice extent

8.10.2020 5.595 +46

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 03:01:50 AM »
Their graphics make it clear that even though extent drops have slowed recently, 2020 still has a good shot of keeping pace with 2012 for the remainder of the melt season.

No chance

In 2012 it was a foregone conclusion the sea ice in the East Siberian Sea would melt out. In 2020 we will finish the melting season with the most sea ice in the Beaufort Sea for the previous decade. This is not the recipe for a record melt year.

I never understood why posters get excited about lower latitude, easier to melt sea ice, melting out.

Jaxa sea ice extent looks join NSIDC sea ice extent in the third place club for 8.7 (today).

Expect below average sea ice melt to continue.

<Inflammatory strawman removed. O>

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 23, 2020, 08:28:31 PM »
For 7.22.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 4.490098 millions of square kilometers. This is a decrease of 140,834 square kilometers from the previous day.

2020 now has the lowest sea ice area value for the date on record.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-119,271 (7.18)
-63,692 (7.19)
-84,614 (7.20)
-40,132 (7.21)
-140,834 (7.22)



4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 11, 2020, 11:09:58 PM »
For 6.10.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.187098 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 5,231 square kilometers from the previous day.

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

-21,230 (June 6th)
-26,022 (June 7th)
-131,266 (June 8th)
-231,367 (June 9th)
+5,231 (June 10th)

The NSIDC 5-day trailing mean volatility may continue.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 03, 2020, 08:01:13 PM »
For 6.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area single daily value is 9.775282 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 4,964 square kilometers from the previous day.

For 6.2.2020, the daily value is 98,188 square kilometers more than the 5.24.2020 value (10 days).

The change from the previous daily value, over the past five days are as follows:

+43,574 (5.29)
-35,428 (5.30)
+86,619 (5.31)
+53,058 (6.1)
+4,964 (6.2)

Four out of the past 5 daily values have recorded an increase compared with the previous day.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 02, 2020, 02:53:48 PM »
The record breaking NSIDC sea ice area gains continue. This is the third record breaking daily increase in the last 8 days (5.25,5.31, and 6.1).



Additionally, global weather models continue to forecast neutral to slightly favorable conditions for ice retention. They have been trending more to the slightly favorable side of the envelope. Weak pressure gradients, mild SLP anomaly, ridging over the western arctic, and troughing at times over the central and eastern arctic look to be the theme over then next 10 days.







 


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 04:55:30 AM »
A large portion of western CAB has greater than 200 cm of snow depth on 05.26.2020.




Total snow mass for the northern hemisphere (excluding mountains) is anomalously high.



The majority of the anomaly is at high latitudes. This will lead to a slow high arctic sea ice melt season. Certain areas of the arctic may experience some periods of anomalously high 2M temperatures until some of this record breaking snow pack melts.



8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 30, 2019, 08:06:40 PM »
I can see evidence for Arctic Sea Ice losses not being above average.
What I can't see (given +ve SST and air temp anomalies) is the evidence to show why area and extent losses should be so much below average (with unusual increases on occasion).

In my subjective view, the answer is simple.

From the start of this melt season, we had record breaking anomalous ridging and warmth over the arctic. The conditions where so anomalous, we saw record sea ice extent and area retreat through August in the peripheral and easier to melt areas. The pattern was also exporting and compacting some of the sea ice at high latitudes.

Some experienced members mentioned throughout the melt season 'The central pack was not looking like it would set a new record'. Towards the end of the melt season, we saw a calming down or reversal of the pattern. There were some areas of sea ice that just melted out, that cooled down significantly, which previously had record breaking heat for months. Additionally, these same higher latitude areas that just melted, also now had reduced solar insolation. What remained was higher latitude and more difficult to melt sea ice.

The arctic is a big area. The dynamics this year where extreme, in melting easier lower latitude sea ice in certain regions of the arctic, and not the central pack. Different weather patterns and dynamics are needed to melt more of the central pack.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 25, 2019, 04:18:16 PM »
2016 loses 299,415 square kilometers of sea ice area over the next 4 days (74,853 square kilometers / day). 2019 needs to lose 214,871 square kilometers over the next 4 days to keep the pace (53,717 square kilometers / day).

It is likely 2019 will fall to the third lowest northern hemisphere NSIDC sea ice area value for the date, in the next 4 days.

10
Let's discuss differences in barometric pressure at polar latitudes, during different stages of the solar cycle.

Quote
"The magnitude of the change in the troposphere is large enough to
alter sea level pressure fields such that a more positive
winter Southern Annual Mode (lower pressure at higher
latitudes) is produced in about 70% of the cases (especially
with climatological and historical SST). The sea level
pressure differences are on the order of 4 mb at high
southern latitudes"

Quote
"This effect, as well as the winter zonal
wind change descending into the troposphere, is more
consistent in the Southern Hemisphere during June –August
then in the Northern Hemisphere for December–February,
most likely owing to the greater planetary wave forcing and
inherent variability during Northern Hemisphere winter"

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Rind_ri07700f.pdf


Page 166 starts "Variations In Air Pressure And In Solar Activity"

https://books.google.com/books?id=yV81i_hopSwC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false



11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 11, 2019, 07:02:47 PM »
Is this going to be a record year for sea ice retention dude88 ? b.c.

No, sea ice extent and area values will not be in the bottom 3 for the minimum either. The constant anticyclonic weather pattern has compacted sea ice at high latitudes.

This will become especially evident, as sea ice extent and area losses will stall later this melt season when the lower latitude sea ice has melted out.

It should come as no surprise that this early spring and start of summer has been dominated by anticyclone, considering we are at the start of the solar minimum.

There has been research that concludes during the solar minimum, the summer melting season at polar latitudes ‘barometric pressure is higher’ than during other intervals of the solar cycle.
It appears we will now switch to a regime of low pressure over the arctic. I am skeptical it will last longer than several weeks.

I started a new thread, so we do not continue off topic.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2755.0.html

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2018, 08:42:24 PM »
Profuse assumptions are being made. We cannot assume the atmospheric temperature profile under areas of high pressure at 850 MB or 500 MB, will correlate to the surface being as anomalously warm, as it would during northern hemisphere summer.





It is probable, there will be a layer of closer to average temperatures near the surface, than at higher altitudes, due to less solar isolation (less surface heating) and a cooler surface.

I predict northern hemisphere sea ice extent and area will continue to increase, albeit with a slower increase than average. The 850 MB and 500 MB anomalies are not indicative of the actual surface anomaly after northern hemisphere summer.

The decrease in cloud thickness / coverage under high pressure, should also allow for more heat energy to radiate into space. This could also increase the heat anomaly at 850 MB and 500 MB.


Pages: [1]