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Messages - Gray-Wolf

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1
Talking of SSW's, GFS is now punting for an SSW of our Vortex after Jan 30th

This could bring some cold airs down into our temperate regions with the 'beast from the east' still fresh in the minds of many of us!

Watch this space!

2
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 16, 2020, 05:14:43 PM »
I openly worried , through the noughties, just how folk would climb down from their lazy acceptance of the climate change denial they were being inundated with?

I guess that we're seeing how 'The Many' can be expected to react now?

Rather than accept their error they seek to compound it by believing ever more fantastical reasons why they have been right all along....

I do not believe we can expect any aid from such quarters? (once the world finally decides to act with the sense of urgency our Crisis demands)

Sadly the whacked out politics of both UK & USA appear to mirror all of this with supporters of the Lunatics they placed in power unable to see anything wrong with their choice for President/Prime Minister?

Ho Hum.....


3
With the 'polar night Jet' (polar vortex) looking so 'orderly' this year (for once!);

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-44.87,85.69,368

 we might be seeing what we should be used to by now (Winters really began 'milding' in the 80's here in the UK?) had we not seen the impacts of both the Ozone hole & Asian Dimming via their rapid industrialisation mess around with global circulation from Strat through the Trop?

Instead we became used to 'cold zones' or areas frequently seeing Polar Plunges and 'mild zones' seeing frequent Warm Air Advection (WAA)?

This time ,with the cold pegged in the Arctic, 'normal' temps are able to maintain over most of the temperate regions?

Problem comes in late Feb/early March when the Polar night jet collapses at winters end and cold flows South/warmth heads North. Will their be a marked increase in the potential difference between air masses and so increased extreme weathers where they meet?

Tornado ally in the US sees a cold polar flow off the rockies meeting with hot humid airs from the Gulf of Mexico

In N. Europe we have a band of lands , from the UK in the west to the far N of Italy, topping the world stats for 'Funnel cloud' formation over the year.

Should this region see the potential difference between opposing air masses increase (African Plumes meeting with Polar Plunges?) should we not expect the 'formation' of Funnel clouds to become 'stronger' and more, higher speed, Tornadoes form from them?

If this 'mild' (so far) winter, in our NW European area, continues then should we be expecting quite a busy spring once the mixing of Polar/tropical commences?

Might we not be seeing some quite viscous storms developing (with all the extra water a warmer atmosphere gives them?) with large hail/frequent lightning & tornado formation?

4
Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 15, 2020, 05:03:32 PM »
I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

Won't happen for the whole hemisphere.
If it happens, it will be only over the oceans.

The 'failing' of the Polar jet allows for both Arctic plunges into areas covered by the Sub tropical Jet but also near direct transport of more Tropical air masses North

There has been increasing in such events/impacts since the turn of the century with record snow in areas not accustomed to such and unseasonable warmth over the dark of the polar night in the far north.

Will not the 'washing out' of distinct air mass types lead to a further lessening of the Jets and their speeds at height?

5
Consequences / Re: The WAVY Jet Stream
« on: January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM »
I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

6
To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

The best thing that could happen in this decade would be to have multiple, unprecedented weather catastrophes hit the developed countries over and over again. These catastrophes need to result in substantial loss of life and widespread destruction of property and infrastructure, so severe as to cause a permanent shift in habitability of vulnerable regions.

It is very sad that this is likely the only thing to get people to wake up and all become Greta Thunbergs.

Sadly I have to agree with you

We still have too many in the developed world sleepwalking into this crisis courtesy of Paid Climate Change Deniers (and their backers?)

Until such folks are jolted into their 'Fight or Flight' response we will just allow the corps/govt's to continue to compound our peril (& that of all the other inhabitants of this World?) so sadly we need such 'big events' that show us all that this Crisis is real & happening all around us and will impact each and every one of us

7
Well, here in the UK, 2019 saw new record high temps set for December and back in February.... only January to see a new record high and we have the set!

I worry that the north will see a similar spring/summer to Australia's spring/summer as the flip in naturals/China's particulate/sulphate clean up since 2014, digs in?

Last years high global temps, over a La Nada year, doesn't have me to happy about the next Nino year and the temps it will drive? (breaking the global high temp the last 'Super Nino' set?)

The last (Super) Nino saw the 1.5c above 1850 temps fall and the Siberian caves (in the permafrost) tell us that the permafrost goes at 1.5c above pre-industrial temps (and stalactite formation recomences?) which hints at an ice free Arctic (allowing the warmer temps to impose themselves?)

In its turn this will lead to CO2/CH4 emmisions as the vegetation locked in the permafrost begins to rot

To me the 2020's look like the decade the world really begins to see the extremes in climate ramp up

8
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: January 06, 2020, 02:10:08 PM »
Sadly a think a combination of paid deniers and the human propensity for looking on the bright side means a lot of folk still have their 'fight or flight' response packed away when it really ought to be being deployed?

For too many years I have held the opinion that it will take a large climate event that is relatable for many of the developed world's population to fully embrace the scale of the issues in front of us?

I am not wishing harm to any person but I do think that the corps most responsible for our ills have also kept many blissfully unaware of both the peril they are in and the continuation of those corps in the behaviours that see us in this pickle?

Until the People rise up in opposition I fear it will be B.A.U. right up until the elites man their bunkers/silos......

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 06:29:59 PM »
For these past three decades of battling to have the 'data/facts' heard above the drone of the Denier it has become amply clear that;

1/ The 'Denier' won and put us beyond avoiding AGW issues and into a time where we ought expect 'Black Swan Events' driving climate cascades that will impact all

2/ Humans are hard wired only to 'react' to clear and present danger to their own lives.....Fight or flight (I know there are exceptions but then do they not go to proving the 'rule' true??)

So I am now ,grudgingly, of the opinion that we need a global climate 'Hit' to raise the 'awareness' of the folk up to the dangers we all now exist within?

Our job (those who fought the good fight these past decades?) is to be there 'For The Many' when they suddenly realise the peril they face?

To 'bring them up to speed' on just what we have unleashed and might 'expect' to see?

A B.O.E. may well prove to be such an event that , unlike the Brazilian rainforest, will not spend 16 days effectively missing from the MSM until 'Social Media' (US??) forces them to run a piece on it?

I know it is a dower outlook but there you have it!


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 22, 2019, 04:56:17 PM »
O/T

Humans are hardwired for 'Fight or Flight', nothing else cuts it

Those seeking the first big 'climate hit' wish that this will be enough to shake 'The Many' into meaningful action before we ALL pay the price for the Capitalist catastrophe?

End of

11
Science / Re: Global Forest Watch
« on: August 22, 2019, 12:52:07 PM »
I used to think it would be the drying and dying of the Amazon, combined with lightning strikes, that would lead to this scale of fire....... I thought 'Man' too aware to ever be so stupid???

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 01:56:20 PM »
At some point they will become more accurate.

O/T I know but 'how'?

We see the trop/strat boundary doing all kind of weird stuff these days that none of the models incorporates

Until we 'flip' and a new 'stable regime' emerges we really do not know enough of the changes to be accurate in our modelling?

Look at some recent 'Canes and their unexpected 'bombing' over 18 to 24 hr periods? Surely we know enough about 'Canes to forecast their behaviours?

Then the introduction of lightning over the Arctic? That isn't even supposed to be possible due to the shallow trop over the Arctic?

Trust HP forecast as they are slow evolving & slow decaying but cyclones out at day 6????

Rant over....

13
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 05, 2019, 02:24:35 PM »
Sadly I'm sure there are folk out there with both power and position enough to consider such sick daydreams as 'potentiaal answers'?

To have arrived where we are shows (me at least?) such folk have already put a major stick in the spokes of the wheel that is climate change meaningful action?

I worry that their 'Get out of jail free' is leaving us all to knock lumps out of each other until there is a more 'manageable' number remaining?

Maybe I go too far in my cogitations some times?

14
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 02, 2019, 01:07:31 PM »
On a more positive note we , here in the UK, are in a bit of a 'Painted Lady' invasion!

Numbers were up in spring/early summer in the parts of Europe they come from so we are in a 'decadal' spike in numbers

My buddleia is earning its nickname this summer!!!

15
I think our respect for Neven , esp. at this time when we are entrusted with his site, should be paramount in all our contributors minds!

For him to come back and find his efforts reduced to some parody of a noughties climate forum is too horrid to think on.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 01:58:31 PM »
Guys,guys!

We know why Neven is away and you want him to come back to this???

Take a chill pill, kiss and make up .and lets move on please?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 01:01:29 PM »
I think some for are not considering how close we came to record lows most years post 2012?

With so much ice of a similar thickness there must come a time when huge losses occur as this thickness of ice goes in one big run of losses?

Maybe the recent years were just a few weeks short of the high melt that would have been enough to see significant losses from this mass of sub 2m FY ice?

This year , and the 'melt momentum' it has accrued, might have enough momentum to see this 'bulk' area of similar thickness fail come mid Aug (without a storm to help it along!)

I'm waiting to see if ice starts disappearing from the central mass as much of that ,by winter's end, was thinner ice?

Anyhoos, the portly madame hasn't eve entered the building yet never mind started her vocal exercises.......

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 08:37:04 PM »
One year was always going to highlight the 'slippage' in our measures since 2012?

This is looking like the year?

For those left scratching their heads (should this occur 'this year'?), trust your eyes in future don't just glue yourself to the numbers!!!

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2019, 10:06:07 PM »
I do think we need to hold onto the fact that this is not the 2012 pack?

The move toward an ice free basin did not stop in 2012 and those conditions ( thinner ice,younger ice,smaller floes,early open waters, warmer ice) have continued to evolve in the intervening period?

I tend to think the same energy , mirroring 2012, over the basin today would lead to greater losses from the current basin ice?

'Dodged a cannonball ' could have been 50cm of ice over a wide area of the basin?.

Could today's melt season have already imparted the energy to shift that 50cm?

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 01:45:29 PM »
As I do the rounds of climate sites I keep running into folk comparing 07'/2012 with today?

The melt dynamics of those packs were surely different from today's pack?

07' still had paleocryistic ice in its mix at ice min!

2012 still had plenty of aged ice in the Beaufort gyre?

2019 has seen its best ice drained away before the onset of melt season proper (both via Fram and Nares?) and late formed FY ice replace the losses.

This years ice will have differing characteristics to other years due to the ongoing conditioning toward a seasonal ice pack in the Arctic?

I reckon that late July should see the end of all the ice that entered melt season at 2m thick or below. If this proves right that's a lot of ice blinking our around the same week just under the melt momentum we have so far amassed.

It is looking like a nasty end to melt season this year!


21
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: June 17, 2019, 02:44:20 PM »
The fact that Yamal has such extensive natural gas reserves would suggest that there is a reserve of 'free methane' under that region at least. The question has to be 'can it leak'? The blowouts in 2015 showed us some methane was close to the surface. The extensive faulting below the permafrost would also suggest there is opportunity for 'migration' of the gas if a pathway to atmosphere was created by surface melt of the cap?

Maybe some of those '7,000+' 'Pingo like structures',that heaved up over the summer of 2016,will erupt this year and bring us our answer?

22
Hi Lumenkraft!!

The appearance of the low up in Kara, and its drift into Barentsz, gives me some hope of us breaking this awful run of cool/wet for us!

If the Basin stirs on our side then it should have some knock on impacts further south and maybe that includes closing that loop and settling our bits of Europe down into something like 'Summer'?

23
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: June 05, 2019, 01:49:47 PM »
They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr.  ;D

For those trapped in , or clinging to, the current system their only faux comfort comes from the old 'if you shared all global wealth out it would still end up in the same hands' BS

There is a mentally deficient side to most who profit under this system and the proof of such is the state we find ourselves in today and the continued obfuscation of those who wield global Capital?

Change is coming whether we like it or not and our choice is either to sycophant to the elite in the hope that they will change their spots and be beneficent toward the brown nosers or we organise , unify and take matters into our own hands.

It will necessitate great changes for those who hoard Global Capital though, but then so will a dying Planet whether they believe it or not!

24


Edit: I note that it is the Northwest corner of the RIS which currently buttresses the Byrd Glacier.

If I remember correctly a radar study of the shelf found 'rucking' mid shelf making it appear that when it 'grounded' ,last time, the forces from behind were so powerful as to drive these 'rucks'

As such I worry that there is a 'breaking point' (literally) in the shelf where back pressure leads to the contact with the ocean floor below being lost and so massive ,sudden , 'float off' of Ross followed by its rapid break up and melt.

For a shelf the size of France this is a real concern!

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 16, 2019, 12:14:49 PM »
As far as a B.O.E. is concerned do we not expect to see melt alter as we approach such an event?

By the time we are down to the last dregs they will no doubt be surrounded by warmed waters and all be of a similar remnant thickness?

I imagine the end coming very fast when it does?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 01, 2019, 11:42:17 AM »
The Atlantification/Pacification of the basin is a growing thing not a seasonal intrusion. Once the Halocline is either flooded over or mixed out it'll take a nice age to rebuild the depth we had as recently as the noughties?

The loss of that layer allows a very different ocean , and processes ,to evolve in line with all the other Oceans of the World.

My concern is , like so much else in nature, it is not a straight line graph of change but one with very rapid periods of alteration?


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 30, 2019, 03:39:22 PM »
I think we all have to accept that 'today' ,early season, is very different to 1980's ,early season?

Look at the amounts of 'peripheral ice' that there was to be got rid of prior to central basin melt back in the 80's? You would see big number losses as the easy ice went, early doors, now we have very little 'peripheral ice' in Bering/Barentsz/Kara so rely on St Lawrence/Hudson and the strip down the east coast of Greenland for all of our early melt?

These days if we saw big number melt in the first weeks of melt season I'd say it was a big portent for the evolution of the season if only for the space it provided for ice to fracture into lessening floe size and allowing waters to warm early?

28
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 19, 2019, 08:47:42 PM »
We rightly condemn the senseless waste of life that 'haters' cause in their attacks and radicalisation of others and all that brings yet when thousands blink out because of a natural disaster we do not join together and pledge our solidarity against the folk who 'augmented' that disaster making it so deadly?

Maybe " you can't say AGW caused it!" is no defence as , in a warming world, every weather event has 'some' AGW in it. So how many in Africa died because of the AGW 'portion' of that Cyclone???

10%, 5%?

Both would return numbers bigger than the horror in Christchurch cost us yet the paid deniers that allowed us here,with little mitigation,just go about their days as if they have not a care in the world but us 'catastrophists'

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2019, 03:29:57 PM »


be assured that the day we drop below 1M km2 no-one will call that a BOE anymore because everyone can look at images and graphs and see a lof if white/ice left.

[/quote]

I think it helps highlight how much has altered over just a decade or so?

I believe the '1 million' was used to account for the 'hard to calculate ice' tucked into bays and crinkly coast lines but we increasingly see total melt out of coastal regions ( inc. N.Greenland which was held as the final stronghold of the remnant ice....until it lifted off the coast and melted!)?

So the million will cause issues if it is distributed around the whole of the central basin? But then we run into '15%' or more and obviously '1 million' in extent/area can actually only represent 15% of 1 million if the ice sits in the right places???

So whilst you might be right you may also be wrong with the '1 million' looking quite pitiful in the ocean esp if it represents only 200,000 sq km in 'real ice' whilst the calcs say it is over a million?

When I look at 80N images of late aug over this decade I can see the ice cover there lower as the years move on .More open water , ever smaller floes, but the numbers do not reflect what the eye sees.

That puts me on the opposite side of things to those who might moan as I'm already moaning the the amount of 'real ice' in the waters north of 80N are already far less than the numbers tell us and this may be a 'preconditioning' essential to see an average weather year go 'ice free'?

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 04, 2019, 03:06:34 PM »
Since the flip in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation , back in 2014, I think I have seen the Pacific side of the basin taking an earlier pounding each year with the last 2 seeing little ice in the entrance to the basin from melt season 'get go'?

Could it be that the 0.5c increases in sst's the flip in the I.P.O. drives over its 30 year 'cycle' could now be giving melt season, over that side of the basin, and early shove?

We know that during a Nino the Kelvin waves work their way up the U.S. coast and into the basin via the Alaskan current so could a similar , if slower, train of ever warmer waters be working into that side of the basin ( and for the next 26 years?)

We have seen a portion of the Atlantic  entrance into the basin returning to a more 'normal' ocean profile since the turn of the century. Will the Pacific side , aided and abetted by the I.P.O. , now play catch up ?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 28, 2019, 06:37:07 PM »
I think we need sit up and pay attention to the I.P.O. if what we have seen occurring around Antarctica since the flip in 2014 is anything to go on!

We have also seen this 'drop off' in Bering ice over the similar time frame and further Pacification of that side of the basin?

You need also bear in mind the rapid changes to the Dimming China had placed over portions of the Tropical/Temperate Pacific basin?

We are set to see a 'natural' 0.5c upswing in sst's plus the impacts of the dimming over portions of the basin along with the impacts of the past 150 years of warming.

The first ever northern hemisphere cat 5 cyclone in Feb might give you a wake up to the direction of travel?

EDIT: This is what I class as the 'drip,drip' pathway and not the 'perfect melt storm' kind of one off event?

We could still go ice free this summer if we saw another 07' rolling on by?

32
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 27, 2019, 06:56:19 PM »
Some of us posting here might do to think about their own health from time to time and maybe take a back seat for a while lest we 'burn out'?

It's the old Pink floyd Wall's " banging your head against some mad buggers wall!" feeling!

If you start to feel that knot tighten in your tum maybe time to go for a run?, tidy the yard?, watch a few clouds?

This is all scary stuff and 'fear' is not a thing to habitualise to!!!

Take a break , chillax a while, be well!  :)

33
It turns out that this dynamic is now being seen as a strong potential tipping point for the global climate system.

This is a very valuable lecture.  wanted to capture it for you here: 

WOW!

It just confirms all I worried about since the catastrophic events over Boscastle in the UK in the noughties.

From West Yorkshire I was watching those cloud tops all the way down in the SW of England!

That was some mighty cloud and punched well through the tropopause and into the strat.

Water vapour intrusion is occurring the top of every 'Big' storm over the N.Hemisphere beyond the sub polar Jet!

34
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 21, 2019, 02:52:21 PM »
Hi gerontocrat!
My take on the sudden turn around in extent/area around Antarctica was always a two pronged assault with both ocean/surface and upper trop/strat boundaries in play?

The upper atmospheric level was tied into the forcings that low ozone placed there and the ocean/atmosphere was a matter of 'tweaked' Naturals ( Tweaked by the asian dimming since the early 90's)

So are the changes temporary or for good?

Well .for me, a bit of both!

The Ozone hole will ( hopefully ) continue to mend and so that portion of the forcing that brought about that 1% increase in extent per decade is now ending.

The flip of the naturals will surely flip back at some point but ,again, the portion that was driven by asian dimming is now also passed its maximum impact as China forges ahead with its clean air initiatives?

As such I now expect us to rapidly catch up with the modelled losses we saw in the 80's/90's with the 'odd' exceptional year of ice growth in among the steady drops.

To me the issue has to be the ability of the ice to transfer swells to the coasts/shelfs behind? In the Arctic ships have witnessed 1m ice put up no obstacle to swells passing through it so will the same apply in the Southern Ocean?

If shelfs now have to face year round 'waggling' from wave and tide it must take more of a toll on them than a 3 or 4 month window of waggling does?

35
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: January 15, 2019, 10:17:26 AM »
Agreed Sebastian , it is the time period of doubling as things do start to move pretty quick a few 'doublings' down the line!

But this misses the point that this has been the 'Drip,Drip' losses prior to the start of 'Ice cliff Fracturing' denudation which will see mass losses shoot up overnight!

36


https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.511

Abstract: "Climate change detection and attribution have proven unexpectedly challenging during the 21st century. Earth’s global surface temperature increased less rapidly from 2000 to 2015 than during the last half of the 20th century, even though greenhouse gas concentrations continued to increase. A probable explanation is the mitigation of anthropogenic warming by La Niña cooling and declining solar irradiance.

I think it could be argued that the period highlighted was blighted by the flip side of the global warming coin, that of global dimming? The fact the the Pacific was ground zero for the incredible increase in Chinese 'dimming' lead to imbalance between the tropical Pacific/tropical Atlantic.
In its turn this lead to the increase in upper level winds over the Caribbean as the basins struggled to find parity and this began to lower Atlantic hurricane numbers via the aggressive shear environment any forming storms encountered.
It also lead to the uptick in the trades over the ENSO regions leading to the huge warm pool at the western extremes of that area.

A combination of China's scrabble to clean up its urban pollution and so save the population ( nobody wants to only be able to see the sun via TV screens in the city centres!) and the flipping of the Pacific 'Naturals' in 2014 helped us suddenly balance out the Basins and so allow warming to return to above the rates of warming measured over the last spurt of warming post our 'dimmed period ( 1980's/90's ).

I know it is early doors yet but I think we will find the years up to 2025 warming at rates well above those of the late 20th century both via the clearing of the airs over the Pacific but also the impacts of open water Arctic ( and recently Antarctic?) able to capture energy that used to be bounced harmlessly back into space and introduce it into the climate system?


37
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: December 01, 2018, 12:12:43 AM »
Some here are very convinced the methane threat isn’t real. I’m out

I believe upthread someone said something along the lines of 'What could change ( in the science) in 2 years?' Yet in 2014 we got the first reports/images of a yamal 'blowout' and 2 years later we have reports of over 1,000 newly heaved up 'pingo like structures' then the 'on the ground' ,eyes on the prize, info would suggest that a lot can change in 2 years?

I never got my question answered either so I guess the guys who were busy telling us it could never happen ,even as the 'Pingo like structures' were heaving out of the permafrost, have no opinion on the events of the real world just what their models are telling them?

I believe the info since the 'Boiling Oceans' reports from the ESS in 2010 point to the start of a release episode and , should Semiletov's timings be correct for the length of time it takes from formation to blowout crater, Yamal goes POP this coming summer?

EDIT: I suppose the Anchorage quake is a timely reminder that 'natural' events will also continue on and degraded permafrost caps for clathrate deposits on continental shelf areas could find themselves destabilised at any time?

38
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: August 10, 2018, 02:44:58 PM »
Indeed Terry,
Silent Spring this way...........

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 07, 2018, 08:54:57 PM »
Interesting kink in the DMI temps recently, probably being facilitated by the high latent heat of peripheral seas.

Wonder how this will affect refreeze, particularly in the ESS.

Latent Heat of fusion will normally peg temps around freezing over melt season. Only when there is so little ice will the temp rise to reflect the waters temp instead.

This year DMI80N temps were a shade below other years.

Was this a sign that more aggressive melt was occurring and lowering the temp closer to the actual melting point of sea water?

If the ice covering this region was fragmented then melt would be occurring at a faster rate than if the area was cover by a few large sheets of ice?

If the temp continues to rise then we will know that a portion of the ice has now gone ( no more Latent Heat of Fusion) and we are, in fact, measuring more open water than past years? Enough to impact the DMI80N temps?

40
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 04, 2018, 09:50:34 PM »
Don't be silly Daniel of course water temps impact storms! Why do you think we have a water temp above which Hurricanes can form?

The warmer the water the faster it puts moisture into the atmosphere. All storms are driven by convection and part of the 'extra boost' is when the water condenses back out and brings us the dry adiabatic lapse rate aloft that allows for the explosive convection.

The fiercer the convection the fiercer that storm but the worst the downgraughts that eventually destroy the structure. Only storms able to overpower such survive so , to me, the warmer it gets we see the evolution of the biggest of the storms into beast we are unfamiliar with where the bulk end up short , sharp , shocks ( though the destabilised air mass may then grow another storm and so give the impression of a long storm over one location?).

Here in europe we are moving closer to these 'superstorms' as some of our recent storm flooding attests to!

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 02, 2018, 01:20:01 PM »
I might just be talking from my Sun kissed UK back garden but this year does appear different to last summer over the basin?

I often wonder just how close we have sailed to seeing record losses unfold over the last 4 weeks of melt season if the 'critical melt out threshold' had been reached and all the FY ice of similar thickness went?

This year I think we might again run into a different seasons end with a lot of ice going out over a period that used to see slow down in losses ( balanced by 'gains' from the high Arctic?).

The SW quad of Beaufort looks awful as does the ESS/Laptev/Kara so how will those areas look come Aug?

Then we have the heat in the Ocean ( like that in Bering entering the basin) to think on? If storms do spin the ice out to peripheral areas this might also take ice that would once have struggled trough the season?

I think this past 5 years, though looking good for the ice, have masked other changes moving us closer to a time where an 'average summer' will be enough to see us practically ice free. Winter will play its role in this 'preconditioning'.

So , back to the ice!

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 26, 2018, 10:54:52 AM »
I think maybe it's time to accept the basin has changed and, as we move toward an ever more fragmented pack, when temps hit above freezing the 'glue' holding the pack together lets go leaving an increasingly fragmented/mobil pack over june/july?

And coastal strips that had cleared will be repopulated by drift ice and give us the impression of a 'stall' whereas we may be seeing quite rapid melt of the ice in those peripheral areas?

We will only ever know it's been a bad season for the ice if there has been enough energy to melt the bulk of the FY ice thickness that season?

What we might also see are larger losses later in melt season as isolated floes, of similar thickness, give up the ghost?

Gone is the June cliff and arriving is the june stall/slowdown.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 23, 2018, 08:01:09 PM »
Our issue seems to be answering 'how much ice does an 'average season' melt out?

As we see more and more late formed, warmer ice in the basin each year we must , as global temps rise and warmer, saltier waters, flow into the basin, reach a point where an average year will be enough to take out such ice.

When the end comes it will come quickly.

44
Thanks Gerontocrat!, I wish I had as strong a belief in the B.O.E. being only a 'small' chance as I have it that any return to the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' would have us sailing very close to such a thing and so, until we fall off any trajectory toward a repeat, I will fret!

I get the feeling that the C.A.B. has been doing far worse than the numbers tell us by melt season's end due to the nature of the way we 'capture' extent/area numbers?

There is nothing we can do about this discrepancy , apart from ask NSIDC etc to help, if we want to keep on measuring apples against apples but as open water increases in the C.A.B., at season's end, we will keep on believing the basin is holding its own whilst the reality is somewhat different?

I just hope that the agencies employing the 15% and 30% cut off system are working on a replacement as we could find ourselves still seeing 100% ice being recorded when the reality is only 16% cover is present?

Why does this matter? Well the old " when the end comes it'll occur pretty fast" covers that? There must come a point where the energy in the ocean is enough to melt the runt of the ice in the water ( no matter the weather) so if we are fooling ourselves that there is more ice than is present then we will not see it coming?

If we think we are headed for a record low of sub 3 million ( what the numbers are telling us) but the ice in the water is only 40% of that figure then we may well have a volume that is less than the melt momentums 'melt out' potential for the basin that year?

Again , this year, we will probably see ice beyond 80N recorded mainly as contiguous ice when we will be looking at sat images showing a very different reality? Pretty soon the ice will start to fall the other side of the 15% cut off and numbers will tumble ( even though we still see ice..... but that will be another issue for another day as deniers jump all over the discrepancy....)

I worry that folk over reliant on the numbers, and not on personally 'looking' at the ice condition, could be in for a shock as ice that is measured, but not there, drops below the cut off and ice cover numbers drop like a stone in the " it will come fast" end of a melt season carrying high momentum for melt into those last weeks of melt season?

I guess I've answered my own question though and the only way to ease my fears is to keep on watching the ice until I know we are 'safe' for another year?

45
Sooooooo, how many of us will not be coping well by the end of this melt season if we continue to see what we currently are seeing across the basin?

What I'm saying is will a number of us suffer from reactive depression from seeing the ice plummet to a new swathe of record lows ( or worse ,a B.O.E.)?

I'm beginning to think that I , for one, will not cope well in seeing my years of warnings about what lies ahead made flesh as I know what must then follow for the circulation of the Northern Hemisphere over Autumn/Winter.

Each melt season, since 07', has been roughly similar for me with concerns over what might pass that year. By August , since 2012, those fears have eased as it became apparent we had , again, dodged the bullet.

I believe this year is starting differently.

I don't know if I have freaked myself out with a link between low solar and high loss years or whether being in the return period for the perfect melt storm has set me off but my thinking has again turned to ''what if it's this year'' and nothing ,so far, has calmed that thinking.

So c'mon folks, what is your trick for not going nuts over melt season?

46
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 13, 2018, 03:00:57 PM »
Maybe it's as simple as warming over our temperate latitudes means the atmosphere holds more moisture and so produces more cloud cover.
Cloud cover will suppress daytime maximums but keep things nice and warm over night.

If you could reverse the process and see less cloud then daytime max's would surely increase under full sun but nightimes would more readily radiate the heat away from the 2m level and so give colder nights?

The odd time , here in the UK, that the clouds give way we do see excessive heat build up but this tends to be in spring or in autumn so absolute maximums ,which would occur over summer, do not get broken just the time of year records?

We do also get the freak years here in the UK like 1976, 2003,2006 where we have ample sun and I think this year may turn into one of those? Lets just hope it does not seep up to the Arctic though!!!

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