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Messages - Yuha

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 10, 2021, 09:35:23 PM »
Comparing the P/E ratio of a fast growing company that has just recently crossed into profitability to the P/E ratio of more established companies is like saying that a temperature of 10C is 100 times warmer than 0.1C. In both cases, zero is not an absolute minimum making ratios of numbers near zero rather meaningless.

Put in another way, Tesla's share price is not based on earnings last year or this year but more like in 2025. For example, suppose you expect Tesla to earn $25B on a $250B revenue in 2025 (and I have seen this kind of numbers in analyses). Using Amazon's current P/E ratio of about 90 and assuming 1B shares would give a share price of about $2250. Paying $880 now for a share that will be $2250 in 2025 seems a decent investment.

EDIT: This is not an investment advice.

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 10, 2020, 09:15:33 PM »
The Tesla question:  if someone else advances battery technology significantly, does Tesla lose part of their moat?  What's the material impact?


https://www.greencarcongress.com/2020/12/20201209-qs.html

Quantumscape (backed by VW) to bring solid state battery to production by 2024?

First, if the technology is truly superior, Tesla can probably either buy the batteries or buy a license to the technology. Being a major investor might give VW a small head start but not a monopoly since QS is a public company.

Second, Quantumscape does not appear to be a big threat to Tesla at the moment. Jordan Giesige of The Limiting Factor channel has a video commenting on Quantumscape's recent live stream:



He basically says that Quantumscape's batteries are about equivalent to what Tesla presented on the Battery Day, except 4-5 years behind.

Third, Tesla's true moat is not any specific technologies but their ability to innovate and execute faster than others. For example, there's a video where Jordan Giesige interviews the CEO of Soteria which has developed a technology for making liquid electrolyte batteries as safe as solid electrolyte batteries:

https://youtu.be/LgAaB7fsSbo?t=1093

The CEO says that the technology might be in vehicles in 3-5 years, 3 years for Tesla, 5 years for other manufacturers.

3
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 08, 2020, 11:39:31 AM »
Quote
Globally, November 2020 was the warmest November on record, by a clear margin.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-november-2020

Nick Stokes is reporting a very warm, though not record warm November:

https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2020/12/november-global-surface-templs-up-0188.html

Nasa GISS November data is not out yet but Jan-Oct was at +1.033C, just behind the record year 2016 which was at +1.038C through October. Since November and December 2016 were not exceptionally warm (+0.90C and +0.86C), a warm November makes a new record likely. The betting odds are currently at 71.5%:

https://electionbettingodds.com/Climate2020.html

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: November 06, 2020, 03:26:25 PM »
Australian states and utilities go bananas over big battery storage
6 November 2020
https://reneweconomy.com.au/australian-states-and-utilities-go-bananas-over-big-battery-storage-62626/

Quote
At 300MW and 450MWh, the Victorian Big Battery will be more than double the size of the recently expanded Tesla big battery at Hornsdale, also owned and operated by Neoen, and it will be one of the biggest in the world. But more importantly, it is just the latest of more than a dozen big battery projects to be formally announced in the last few months, with many more in the pipeline.

This week the Northern Territory Labor government opened the formal tender process for its 35MW Darwin big battery (with about half an hour storage) that will displace significant amounts of gas generation and allow for more rooftop and utility scale solar.

The South Australia government this week signed a 10 year electricity supply deal with Zen Energy that will see the 100MW and 100MWh Playford big battery built near Port Augusta , along with the 280MW Cultana solar farm at Whyalla.

Last week, Transgrid announced it would build a 50MW and 75MWh big battery at Wallgrove in western Sydney, which will provide synthetic inertia and other important grid services, and will be operated by Infigen Energy and which will also serve to “firm” up that company’s wind portfolio.

Last month, the Western Australia government announced a 100MW and 2000MWh big battery to be built near Kwinana, again helping displace gas generation and reducing the wear and tear on ageing fossil fuel generators as they cope with the increasing amounts of rooftop solar and large scale wind and solar.

The NSW government in August announced it would support the construction of four new big batteries, including a 30MW battery at the Sapphire renewable energy hub,  a 50MW battery at the proposed New England solar farm, a 12MW battery thought to be slated for Goldwind’s Gullen Range wind and solar hub, and 6MW of distributed batteries aggregated into a virtual power plant.

Another two big batteries may also be supported by the NSW government, depending on the outcome of feasibility studies.

The ACT government in September announced two new big batteries will be built as a result of its latest tender to push it beyond 100 per cent renewables as it seeks to electricity transport and buildings and further reduce emissions. They are a 50MW battery with two hours storage from Neoen and a 10MW/20MWh battery from Global Power Generation.

The re-elected ACT Labor government has also committed to building a 250MW big battery in Canberra to boost its own local network, and increase the amount of wind and solar power produced under contract that is matched with its usage.

Quote
AGL has contracted Maoneng to build 200MW and 400MWh of big batteries in NSW, including one at the Sunraysia solar farm, and is already building a 100MW and 150MWh big battery to be positioned next to the proposed Wandoan solar farm in Queensland, and has flagged a big battery of up to 500MW at the site of the soon to be closed Liddell coal generator.

In all, AGL plans up to 1,200MW of battery storage by 2024, and heralded the “dawn” of the battery age, which it describes as a “game changer” for the grid.

Origin Energy is also looking at five different battery storage possibilities, including at up to four of its existing fossil fuel generators, and a separate 300MW project at Morgans in South Australia, but says the plans are hostage to federal government market intervention, and particularly its controversial, and secretive, Underwriting New Generation Investment scheme. Infigen has echoed those complaints.

Alinta and Fortescue are looking at more big batteries in the expanded Pilbara grid that will supply most of the  big iron ore mining operations in the region and enough solar capacity to power the operations during daytime hours. Alinta already operates the highly successful 30MW/12MWh Newman battery, which is delivering a payback of less than five years, and making the local grid more reliable.

And, of course, there is the biggest proposal of them all – the massive 20GWh (gigawatt hour) battery to go with the proposed Sun Cable solar farm in the Northern Territory that could deliver power to Singapore via an undersea cable more than 3,700km long.

Quote
And let’s not forget the tens of thousands of small batteries being installed at an increasingly rapid rate by households and businesses to store rooftop solar and deliver increased resilience and standalone power, and which are also being aggregated in an increasing number of ever larger virtual power plants which will play an important role in the grid.

Quote
Costs of battery storage are coming down. Neoen’s Australian boss Louis de Sambucy said this week that the Victorian big battery will be 15 per cent lower per megawatt hour than just two years ago, and the costs are still falling.

And they are versatile, with one big battery able to perform multiple different functions, including increasing capacity on transmission links, providing emergency security response, frequency control, synthetic inertia, and also simply as a storage device, charging at times of low prices and discharging at times of peak demand, when prices usually rise.

In all, there are about 20 different services in the battery storage “value pack”. But as Neoen’s de Sambucy notes: “They can do a lot of things that are not fully recognised by the market because the marketplace was designed in a certain way.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2020, 10:04:48 PM »
Animation for all of October below

BFTV, thanks for these animations. They are really useful in understanding the progress of freeze (or melt during the summer).

A suggestion: Move the last frame, the one shoving the difference between the beginning and the end, as the first frame because the first frame is the one shown when the animation is off.

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 01, 2020, 04:27:08 PM »
Here's more information on the antigen tests:

Fast coronavirus tests: what they can and can’t do
Nature, NEWS FEATURE  16 SEPTEMBER 2020
https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-02661-2

Quote
A typical antigen test starts with a health-care professional swabbing the back of a person’s nose or throat — although companies are developing kits that use saliva samples, which are easier and safer to collect than a swab. The sample is then mixed with a solution that breaks the virus open and frees specific viral proteins. The mix is added to a paper strip that contains an antibody tailored to bind to these proteins, if they’re present in the solution. A positive test result can be detected either as a fluorescent glow or as a dark band on the paper strip.

Antigen tests give results in less than 30 minutes, don’t have to be processed in a lab and are cheap to produce. Yet that speed comes with a cost in sensitivity. Whereas a typical PCR test can detect a single molecule of RNA in a microlitre of solution, antigen tests need a sample to contain thousands — probably tens of thousands — of virus particles per microlitre to produce a positive result1. So, if a person has low amounts of virus in their body, the test might give a false-negative result.

When used on people who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 in a standard PCR test, Abbott’s antigen assay correctly spotted the virus in 95–100% of cases if the samples were collected within a week of the onset of symptoms. But that proportion dropped to 75% if samples were taken more than a week after people first showed symptoms. The sensitivity — or the rate of detecting infections correctly — of the other antigen tests used in the United States is between 84% and 98% if a person is tested in the week after showing symptoms.

[...]

There are challenges at the start of the infection, when people have low levels of the virus. The answer, says Mina, is frequent testing — done multiple times per week. This could quickly identify infected people, even if the assays are less sensitive than a PCR-based test, because the amount of virus in their noses and throats rises within hours, he says.

Mina and his colleagues have used statistical models to assess this strategy. In a preprint updated on 8 September, they suggest that testing people twice a week with a relatively insensitive test could be more effective at curbing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 than are more-accurate tests done once every two weeks1. Another study that modelled different scenarios for safely reopening university campuses reported similar findings.



Edit: Added link that I accidentally left out. Thanks longwalks1 for pointing out.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 01, 2020, 04:19:55 PM »
Slovakia is testing the whole population using antigen tests.

Slovakia to test all adults for SARS-CoV-2
Lancet, October 31, 2020
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32261-3/fulltext

Quote
For the mass testing, thousands of testing sites are to be set up across the country and everyone over the age of 10 years—approximately 4 million people—will be asked to attend a testing site and take an antigen test. After being tested, people must wait in a separate disinfected room and, around half an hour later, will be given their results.

Anyone testing positive must remain in strict self-isolation at their home for 10 days, or they can go to a quarantine facility provided by the state. Many shops are being closed and restrictions on movement imposed during the 3-week period of testing with people subject to random spot checks by police. Everyone taking the test will be given a certificate to present if requested. Failure to do so could result in a fine of €1650. The testing is voluntary, but anyone not participating must self-isolate in their homes for 10 days. Breaking this quarantine also carries a fine of €1650.

They will test everyone twice, once this weekend, half on Saturday and half on Sunday, and second time next weekend. This seems to be recommended for antigen test because they may miss infections at an early phase.

The first results are in.

Half of Slovakia's population tested for coronavirus in one day
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/half-slovakia-population-covid-tested-covid-one-day

Quote
The defence minister, Jaroslav Naď said on Sunday 2.58 million Slovaks had taken a test on Saturday, and 25,850 or 1% tested positive and must go into quarantine.

The EU country has a population 5.5 million people and aims to test as many people as possible, except for children under 10.

[...]

On Sunday, Slovakia reported 2,282 new cases through PCR tests, putting the total at 59,946, not including those identified in the nationwide scheme, and 219 deaths to date.





8
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 26, 2020, 10:18:06 PM »
Quote
The two vehicles that are listed for production at the unannounced facility are the Semi and the Roadster...

Appears this will be a factory designed to make lower volume, more complex vehicles — which have very big batteries. :)

My interpretation of "TBD" is that Tesla has not yet decided where those vehicles will be made. Could be Fremont, Texas or Nevada. Or maybe even a new factory.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 17, 2020, 02:44:08 PM »
This was NOT the case in 2016. There was no massive increase in extent gains at that time or during the entire freezing season. As a result the March 2017 maximum was a record low. What was the difference? I'm not sure.

I seem to recall that in 2016 from October to December there was a series of Atlantic storms entering the Arctic and bringing a lot of heat with them. These can be seen as spikes in the DMI temp chart.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 16, 2020, 01:15:28 PM »
The latest price cut is a typical Elon style marketing move to create some controversy and generate headlines. That's free advertisement for Tesla. Even Lucid probably benefits from it as they get some free advertisement too.

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 02, 2020, 06:50:51 PM »
The article you references is just a news opinion, it's not an article or peer-review.  The author has no credentials and is just a normal reporter. 

That doesn't stop Talha Burki from posting "the origins of SARS" as the title, as if she's the authority on the subject.    ::)

Yes, it is not a peer-reviewed paper. I thought about mentioning that but considered it unnecessary as it should already be clear from the part I quoted. But it is an article in The Lancet.

More importantly, the included quote cites David Robertson, who is an expert. The (peer-revied) paper co-authored by Robertson mentioned in the article is this:

Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic
Nature Microbiology, July 2020
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41564-020-0771-4

EDIT: Changed the tone to less confrontational.

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 02, 2020, 12:21:34 PM »
There's more evidence that the virus got out from the Wuhan laboratory than evidence that it mysteriously appeared from an open food market that didn't sell bats.

We know that laboratory was studying Horeshoe bats, and was actively studying novel coronaviruses.

Bats have a high metabolic rate and a highly active immune system, which is why bat viruses have to be particularly good at spreading and/or evading the immune system. Thus a bat virus jumping into another species can be especially dangerous. The same is true for bird viruses, but perhaps a bat virus can jump more easily into another mammal.

That is the reason why bat viruses are studied in labs, and why the bat origins of the virus is no surprise to experts. No need for conspiracy theories beyond that.

Also, the virus probably did not jump from bats to humans directly but through another species, pangolin has been mentioned as a candidate.

Here is a brief article discussing the origins:

The origin of SARS-CoV-2
The Lancet: Infectious Diseases, September 2020
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30641-1

Quote
“If the virus had been human-made, that would show in its genome”, counters Robertson. “Besides, if you were going to create a coronavirus that can be transmitted by humans, you would almost certainly start with the first SARS virus. SARS-CoV-2 is like nothing we have seen before. It really is highly unlikely that someone created it; it is not put together from pieces we know about.” SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to other beta coronaviruses such as RaTG13, a bat virus that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has been working on. But it only shares 96% of its genome sequence with RaTG13, which makes them roughly as similar as human beings and chimpanzees, and points to a common ancestor rather than one springing from the other.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 03:14:40 PM »
A notification on Worldview:
Quote
The Aqua satellite experienced an anomaly on 16 August 2020 at 9:26:40 UTC and is affecting all Aqua MODIS and AIRS layers available in Worldview from 16 August 2020 onward. It is unknown when the issue will be remedied. We apologize for the inconvenience.

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: August 13, 2020, 12:18:53 PM »
Tesla big battery sets new record as testing for Hornsdale expansion enters final stage
Australia, 11 August 2020
Quote
It is now being expanded to a capacity of 150MW/194MWh, and is adding new services, particularly synthetic inertia, that will allow it to replicate more of the services once exclusive to fossil fuel generators in South Australia, and allow the grid to take another important step towards the shift to the state government target of “net 100 per cent renewables.”
[...]
On Tuesday, in the latest series of tests, the Hornsdale battery did a rapid 270MW flip – from charging at 120MW to discharging at 150MW. It appears to have flipped between the two on several different occasions (see graph above) – at least one of which had an immediate impact on the wholesale price of electricity, pushing it down to the peppercorn price of just above $8/MWh.

Those 270MW flips – from the level of discharge to the level of charge – are likely a world record in both speed and extent of the change.
[...]
The new testing on synthetic inertia, or virtual inertia as David Leitch explains in this excellent piece on the work being done already by the Dalrymple North battery, will prove yet another critical grid service and function that can be delivered by inverter-based technologies, and remove another important brick in the wall of the incumbent synchronous generators. The industry, in Australia and overseas, is watching with keen interest.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-sets-new-record-as-testing-for-hornsdale-expansion-enters-final-stage-65376/

That synthetic or virtual inertia is probably the same grid stabilizing service that was achieved using flywheel storage in Scotland as discussed in the Renewable Energy thread recently:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg272207.html#msg272207

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 11, 2020, 07:31:59 PM »
—- Thread by @ReflexFunds (rolled into one page at the link):
Some thoughts on Tesla’s Autopilot & Robotaxi strategy:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1292186746764038145.html

Here are follow up threads by @ReflexFunds:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1292887757879222272.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1292891381229379585.html

This is a very nice overview of Tesla's Autopilot status. 

One detail missing is Project Dojo which is a new chip for training neural nets. Neural net training is computationally very demanding and currently done on GPUs (the HW3 chip is not suitable for training). The new chip is probably around an order of magnitude more efficient than a GPU enabling faster training and thus faster iteration. Project Dojo is expected to deploy late this year or early next year.

In summary, we can expect fast progress with Autopilot starting later this year when the new 4D architecture arrives followed by continuous improvements (the march of 9s) next year. Whether this is enough for full FSD remains to be seen, but we should be much wiser a year from now.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 04:29:49 PM »
I made little animations using the NSIDC comparison tool comparing the remainder of the melting seasons 2012 and 2019 against the current state.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 24, 2020, 02:39:19 PM »
Chukchi Sea seems right, here's the photographer's own site:

https://danielbeltra.photoshelter.com/image/I0000jgdYB8Kwydg

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 10:04:31 PM »
I think the discrepancy between extent and area is explained by two factors.

One is the melt pond drainage mentioned by Lodger and FOW above.

The other is lack of dispersal. On many years, large regions of the ice pack have started to disperse in July but this year the GAAC has prevented most of that. The image below is an example of strong dispersal from July 19, 2016.

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 14, 2020, 11:36:33 PM »
To put the Melbourne flare up in context:
  • Melbourne, population 5 million, about 200 new cases per day
  • NYC, population 8.4 million, about 300 new cases per day in recent weeks
  • Arizona, population 7.3 million, about 3,500 new cases day
My guess is it won't get much worse in Melbourne because of the lockdown (in effect for a week now) and extensive contact tracing.

Here's some details about the lockdown

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/13/coronavirus-melbourne-stage-3-lockdown-rules-restrictions-victoria-metropolitan-metro-mitchell-shire-explained-covid-19-what-you-need-to-know

and contact tracing:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/14/melbourne-lockdown-key-to-getting-covid-19-contact-tracing-to-manageable-level-expert-says

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: July 13, 2020, 10:29:36 PM »
BAU will continue to happen until an EV compromise asserts itself.  Right now we have two camps, one shouting F. U. We're keeping our ICE and our right to pollute.  On the other side is a raucous chant of Public Transport is all you should be allowed (or walk/cycle 20 miles to work if you don't have any).  In the middle are a fairly small camp being browbeaten by all sides.

Actually, it is useful to see the "green camp" as a spectrum of viewpoints ranging from Techno-utopianism to Neo-Ludditism. There is a fantastic (and long) series of tweets by Nafnlaus analysing this:

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1281554202263793664

Quote
Techno-utopians see the solution to crises not as to sacrifice or revert, but to invent & move forward. There's all sorts of flavours of techno-utopianism - techno-progressivism (focused on achieving post-scarcity to eliminate unequality); technogianism (using technology to solve climate crises); transhumanism (using technology to overcome human limits); and so forth.

Quote
Neo-luddites see some / many of the technological changes of the past century as causing the problems we're in, and deeply fear proposed technological solutions to them. Faced with a crisis,  neo-Luddites tend to seek to revert to what they see as "older, better ways". The fact that most people haven't done so, seeing such reversion as a big sacrifice, is that they either truly don't understand how much happier they'll be, or they're bad people and deserve to be unhappy.

I highly recommend reading the full tweet series (26 tweets), it's really eye opening. I think most of us on this forum are somewhere between the two extremes, but it's clear that many of the arguments here arise because some of us are closer to Techno-utopianism and others to Neo-Ludditism. The tweet series has many examples.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 06, 2020, 06:17:47 AM »
Ice is forming some peculiar patterns in Foxe Basin.

Also, there is an optical illusion that makes some of the ice flows look like large ice bergs with a long shadow. (The "shadow" is just open water.)

22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 27, 2020, 03:06:54 PM »
There's several reasons why the number of deaths in US is not yet rising the way the number of infections is:
  • Deaths come with a delay.
  • Some (but certainly not all) of the increase in cases is due to increased testing.
  • Doctors have more experience and know better what treatments work in the critical cases. Besides preventing some deaths, this may also delay death further in other cases.
  • Nursing homes, hospitals etc. are better prepared to protect their vulnerable residents/patients.
  • While the young and healthy are eager to return to normality, the elderly and other risk groups are continuing to self isolate, practice social distancing etc.
  • It's possible that some states are cooking the books. Perhaps not actually forging the records but controlling the way statistics are collected and reported.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 20, 2020, 02:55:31 PM »

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/NRTawp.html

Check out the two charts from Nico Sun's site on the bottom of the page. Daily and accumulated Albedo Warming potential by region. On an accumulated basis, CAB is slightly behind the 20 year average and Beaufort is way behind. Neither region has had a single day this month with above average AWP.

Also, look at Oren's volume charts through mid-June by region in the PIOMAS thread.

Also, look at the NSIDC area spreadsheets by region which Gerontocrat prepares daily.

Also, look at the difference in the Beaufort Sea vs. last year in Aluminum's satellite images.

All of those statistics are somewhat misleading for Beaufort. This spring had less than usual amount of ice transport away from Beaufort. Typically that ice transport leads to a lot of open water early in the melt season, but this year there is less open water. And less open water means higher albedo, extent, area and volume. Thus all of those statistics could simply be the result of anomalous ice transport and not necessarily an indication of low melt.

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 19, 2020, 07:20:34 PM »

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 30, 2020, 04:02:25 PM »
But
- They declared covid as pandemic in March when everybody already knew it was a pandemic

As you say yourself, everybody already knew. The actual declaration has no real significance. The actions are up to national authorities anyway. And WHO did declare COVID-19 a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern" already in January.

Quote
- They screwed up with their erring on the lax side with masks, instead of on the safe side. They were protecting health workers, perhaps, but they were not transparent and lied about the scientific facts.

There is still no consensus on using masks by general public. Just yesterday the Finnish health authorities published a report on using face masks. Result: no requirement or recommendation for the general public to use face masks. My understanding is that several other countries have made a similar decision.

Quote
- They were eager to praise China response while shamelessly refusing to recognize Taiwan as a country, this is a UN organization, folks, and Taiwan had an exemplary response to covid.

This is an issue with just about all international organizations. Only 14 out of 193 members of the UN have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

Quote
- They rushed to halt HCQ trials based on the Lancet study that is receiving increased scrutiny and criticism from experts (including WHO employees)

The study was suspended temporarily and a decision of whether to continue will be made in a week or two. Seems a pretty reasonable decision to me.



26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 18, 2020, 12:32:20 PM »
I saw this argument over at reddit, had to share it with you.

As of this moment, there have been 12,199 C19 deaths in NYC.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

NYC population is 8.4 million people. So if the IFR of C19 was  0.1% then everyone in NYC already got it and then some. No one else should die of C19. Sadly that is not the case.

NYC may be a long way towards herd immunity. Already about 1.6% of NYC population is confirmed infected:

https://covid-19.direct/metro/NYC

Some boroughs (Staten Island, The Bronx) are at about 2%. The true infection rate must be much higher, quite likely over 10%, perhaps as high as 30%?

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 05:17:18 PM »
Blood donors tend to bias toward healthy young adults. No kids, no diabetics, no morbidly obese, no COPD, rarely over 70, etc. So the cohort selectively excludes many that are most susceptible.

3% could easily become 2%.

On the other hand, blood donors are probably people who care about their and other people's health, and are more likely to follow social distancing rules, wash their hands diligently, etc.

So the infection rate in the general population could be a lot higher.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 17, 2020, 12:29:41 PM »
A teardown of Model 3 by the Japanese
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-teardown-finds-electronics-6-years-ahead-of-Toyota-and-VW2

Some juicy bits:

Quote
But when it comes to electronics technology, Elon Musk's scrappy company is far ahead of the industry giants.
...
One stunned engineer from a major Japanese automaker examined the computer and declared, "We cannot do it."
...
That means Tesla beat its rivals by six years.

And the meat:

Quote
So big automakers apparently feel obliged to continue using complicated webs of dozens of ECUs, while we only found a few in the Model 3. Put another way, the supply chains that have helped today's auto giants grow are now beginning to hamper their ability to innovate.

Young companies like Tesla, on the other hand, are not shackled to suppliers and are free to pursue the best technologies available.

Our teardown underscored this in another way as well.

Most parts inside the Model 3 do not bear the name of a supplier. Instead, many have the Tesla logo, including the substrates inside the ECUs. This suggests the company maintains tight control over the development of almost all key technologies in the car.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 04, 2020, 11:16:26 PM »
Its reminiscent of when Steve Case Jobs was a genius & AOL Apple was worth $1.25 1011

Fixed that for you.  ;)

30
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 30, 2019, 04:30:01 AM »
Three Rescued After Tugboat Sinks in Hurricane Lorenzo
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-28-bourbon-rhode-boat-crew-rescued-lorenzo

Quote
At a Glance
  • The Bourbon Rhode sank Thursday with 14 crew on board.
  • An emergency beacon indicated the boat was in the center of Hurricane Lorenzo.
  • The three survivors are reported to be in good health.

32
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 17, 2019, 09:42:12 PM »
Add NOAA & BEST to the list of July 2019 as warmest on record.  GISS should be there too once it's released.  BEST came in at +0.84°C above the 1950-1981 baseline.  A fairly large margin over the previous record: July 2016 +0.72°C.

GISS (V4) came in at +0.93°C, clearly warmer than the +0.85°C of July 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:06:08 PM »
So far SMB gain for the year nearly 100 GT less than normal, but not in the same league as 2012.
My guess is for a another 50GT or so of SMB loss to go.

To put these numbers into context, the 2012 SMB anomaly of about 330 GT corresponds to a bit under 1 mm of sea level rise.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 09:51:17 AM »
As long as sun is still high, sunshine is the worst for the ice in the long term, but the full effect is not immediate. A lot of the insolation goes through the ice and warms up the water below, and some of that heat may remain stored there for weeks. This is the heat that drives bottom melt in late melt season and provides most of the melting power of storms. Thus storms are most effective in melting the ice when they follow a long period of sunny weather.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:25:06 AM »
When comparing this year with 2012, keep in mind that the areas where 2012 had much more ice are Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS, all of which melted completely.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 10:02:32 AM »
Here is a tentative ranking of subjective whiteness from whitest to bluest/greenest for June 5th from 2000 to 2019, based on https://go.nasa.gov/2WWvSva these Worldview settings.

1st (lightest): 2004
2nd: 2000
3rd: 2003
4th: 2009
5th: 2006
6th: 2018
7th: 2002
8th: 2008
9th: 2014
10th: 2013
11th: 2001
12th: 2017
13th: 2010
14th: 2005
15th: 2015
16th: 2011
17th: 2019
18th: 2007
19th: 2016
20th (darkest): 2012

And 2012 was just getting started on June 5th and continued to darken over the next days.
I made a gif about it a couple of years ago:


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 04:01:22 AM »
So early in June, it may actually slow ice loss because the clouds decrease the solar insolation when it's starting to peak.  Late in August, when the ice is thin, it may accelerate the melting by breaking up the pack and spreading it out so that more ice is exposed to the warmer water.

That is very true but the NSIDC post also says this:

Quote
“Having said that,” Serreze said, “the impacts of an individual storm may not follow that rule, and maybe importantly, the rules are starting to change.”

This particular storm is unusually strong but short lived and pulls in a lot of heat from Siberia.

A big factor is how much of the precipitation is rain and how much snow. The main effect of rain is not to melt ice but to melt snow or even just turn it darker. Even wet snow fall could reduce albedo. Right now, close to the maximum insolation, just a bit of darkening could be enough to create melt ponds once the sun returns.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: June 08, 2018, 07:13:28 PM »
The polar bear made it out of that window?! No way!  ???

Well, when you're trying to skip out on the hotel bill, motivation can work wonders.  I hear the charges were un-bearable.

I heard he left because they didn't that the bear necessities.

I heard the bear ran out because they ran out of beer.

39
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: June 07, 2018, 04:26:49 PM »
from Earth Observatory, 6 June 2018: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=92238&src=eoa-iotd
End of the Journey for Iceberg B-15Z?

Still visible on worldview on June 4: https://go.nasa.gov/2JohX6Q
It has split along the fracture.

Next day it is barely visible through the clouds, but it is still high enough to cause ripples in the clouds.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: June 07, 2018, 03:47:57 PM »
Svalbard has now had 90 months in a row with above normal monthly temperatures.
All Norvegian Arctic island weather stations recorded May temperatures at least 5C above normal.

https://www.met.no/nyhetsarkiv/varmeste-mai-noensinne

Google translated:

Quote
All the five Arctic long-distance stations, Bjørnøya, Hopen, Svalbard airport, Ny-Ålesund and Jan Mayen set record for the warmest May-month. Bjørnøya was the mildest station with a mean temperature of 3.7 ° C, which is 5.1 ° C above the normal. Svalbard airport had an average temperature of 1.8 ° C (6.0 ° C above normal). Svalbard airport has not had a single monthly temperature below the norm, as of December 2010, ie 90 months in a row. Kvitøya was coldest at -2.8 ° C on average (no normal yet). Ny-Ålesund had a mean temperature of 1.6 ° C (5.6 ° C above the normal). At Hopen, the monthly temperature was 0.3 ° C, which is 5.0 ° C above normal and the first time the station has an average temperature above 0 degrees in May. Jan Mayen had a mean temperature of 2.8 ° C, which is 5.1 ° C above the normal.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« on: May 22, 2018, 09:06:34 AM »
I too was surprised by the low drop in volume but I can see why I rather than PIOMAS may have been mislead. While my focus has been on the warmth in Central Arctic (as displayed by the DMI graph) and Barents (where the most dramatic changes are happening), it's actually been fairly cold in many regions including CAA, Hudson, Baffin, Kara and Laptev.

Additionally, the lack of Fram Strait export is likely a contributing factor.

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