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Messages - Yuha

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Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 04, 2020, 11:16:26 PM »
Its reminiscent of when Steve Case Jobs was a genius & AOL Apple was worth $1.25 1011

Fixed that for you.  ;)

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 30, 2019, 04:30:01 AM »
Three Rescued After Tugboat Sinks in Hurricane Lorenzo

At a Glance
  • The Bourbon Rhode sank Thursday with 14 crew on board.
  • An emergency beacon indicated the boat was in the center of Hurricane Lorenzo.
  • The three survivors are reported to be in good health.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 17, 2019, 09:42:12 PM »
Add NOAA & BEST to the list of July 2019 as warmest on record.  GISS should be there too once it's released.  BEST came in at +0.84°C above the 1950-1981 baseline.  A fairly large margin over the previous record: July 2016 +0.72°C.

GISS (V4) came in at +0.93°C, clearly warmer than the +0.85°C of July 2016.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:06:08 PM »
So far SMB gain for the year nearly 100 GT less than normal, but not in the same league as 2012.
My guess is for a another 50GT or so of SMB loss to go.

To put these numbers into context, the 2012 SMB anomaly of about 330 GT corresponds to a bit under 1 mm of sea level rise.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 09:51:17 AM »
As long as sun is still high, sunshine is the worst for the ice in the long term, but the full effect is not immediate. A lot of the insolation goes through the ice and warms up the water below, and some of that heat may remain stored there for weeks. This is the heat that drives bottom melt in late melt season and provides most of the melting power of storms. Thus storms are most effective in melting the ice when they follow a long period of sunny weather.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:25:06 AM »
When comparing this year with 2012, keep in mind that the areas where 2012 had much more ice are Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS, all of which melted completely.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 10:02:32 AM »
Here is a tentative ranking of subjective whiteness from whitest to bluest/greenest for June 5th from 2000 to 2019, based on these Worldview settings.

1st (lightest): 2004
2nd: 2000
3rd: 2003
4th: 2009
5th: 2006
6th: 2018
7th: 2002
8th: 2008
9th: 2014
10th: 2013
11th: 2001
12th: 2017
13th: 2010
14th: 2005
15th: 2015
16th: 2011
17th: 2019
18th: 2007
19th: 2016
20th (darkest): 2012

And 2012 was just getting started on June 5th and continued to darken over the next days.
I made a gif about it a couple of years ago:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 04:01:22 AM »
So early in June, it may actually slow ice loss because the clouds decrease the solar insolation when it's starting to peak.  Late in August, when the ice is thin, it may accelerate the melting by breaking up the pack and spreading it out so that more ice is exposed to the warmer water.

That is very true but the NSIDC post also says this:

“Having said that,” Serreze said, “the impacts of an individual storm may not follow that rule, and maybe importantly, the rules are starting to change.”

This particular storm is unusually strong but short lived and pulls in a lot of heat from Siberia.

A big factor is how much of the precipitation is rain and how much snow. The main effect of rain is not to melt ice but to melt snow or even just turn it darker. Even wet snow fall could reduce albedo. Right now, close to the maximum insolation, just a bit of darkening could be enough to create melt ponds once the sun returns.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: June 08, 2018, 07:13:28 PM »
The polar bear made it out of that window?! No way!  ???

Well, when you're trying to skip out on the hotel bill, motivation can work wonders.  I hear the charges were un-bearable.

I heard he left because they didn't that the bear necessities.

I heard the bear ran out because they ran out of beer.

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: June 07, 2018, 04:26:49 PM »
from Earth Observatory, 6 June 2018:
End of the Journey for Iceberg B-15Z?

Still visible on worldview on June 4:
It has split along the fracture.

Next day it is barely visible through the clouds, but it is still high enough to cause ripples in the clouds.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: June 07, 2018, 03:47:57 PM »
Svalbard has now had 90 months in a row with above normal monthly temperatures.
All Norvegian Arctic island weather stations recorded May temperatures at least 5C above normal.

Google translated:

All the five Arctic long-distance stations, Bjørnøya, Hopen, Svalbard airport, Ny-Ålesund and Jan Mayen set record for the warmest May-month. Bjørnøya was the mildest station with a mean temperature of 3.7 ° C, which is 5.1 ° C above the normal. Svalbard airport had an average temperature of 1.8 ° C (6.0 ° C above normal). Svalbard airport has not had a single monthly temperature below the norm, as of December 2010, ie 90 months in a row. Kvitøya was coldest at -2.8 ° C on average (no normal yet). Ny-Ålesund had a mean temperature of 1.6 ° C (5.6 ° C above the normal). At Hopen, the monthly temperature was 0.3 ° C, which is 5.0 ° C above normal and the first time the station has an average temperature above 0 degrees in May. Jan Mayen had a mean temperature of 2.8 ° C, which is 5.1 ° C above the normal.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« on: May 22, 2018, 09:06:34 AM »
I too was surprised by the low drop in volume but I can see why I rather than PIOMAS may have been mislead. While my focus has been on the warmth in Central Arctic (as displayed by the DMI graph) and Barents (where the most dramatic changes are happening), it's actually been fairly cold in many regions including CAA, Hudson, Baffin, Kara and Laptev.

Additionally, the lack of Fram Strait export is likely a contributing factor.

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