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Messages - tzupancic

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 06:22:49 AM »
Arctic Sea Ice melt 2020.

I do not agree with the current implication that the recent reduction in arctic sea ice extent decline indicates that the melting of ice in the Arctic Ocean in 2020 is not exceptional. 

To the contrary it appears that the melt in 2020 is unique and unprecedented. I would suggest, rather, that the current ongoing melt is ‘transformational’.


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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 24, 2020, 03:52:21 AM »
Looks like events in 2020 are at an interesting point. Just a short note to list a summary of a few aspects of this complex system that would appear to drive how it behaves.

Important Elements Affecting Arctic Sea Ice Melt:

Melt season starting conditions/Sea Ice thickness, extent, and distribution

Early melt season ice conditioning/melt momentum/melt pond formation

Mid melt season solar insolation as a source of energy added to the system

Weather systems and atmospheric temperature as a source of energy added to the system

Sea Ice Concentration/Fragmentation and the effect of ice concentration on surface melt and bottom melt over time

The effect of total energy added to the system up until late July on the ice in August and September

Weather events that affect if energy in the system contacts/melts the ice.

The behavior of complex systems are difficult to understand and explain. It will be interesting to see what is learned as ongoing events are observed and analyzed.



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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 06:06:35 AM »
Just one thing, the conditioning of the ice.

Was 2020 unusual regarding the conditioning of the ice?

Whatever happened in this regard this year was not something that would have been reflected in standard measures of sea ice extent, area, or volume.

Thus, if 2020 was exceptional in ‘conditioning’ one would not expect to see any impact of this at the present time.

I suggest this here because the peak of solar insolation is obviously a time to consider what happens next.

Many have commented that 2020 is not exceptional, referring to sea ice extent, area, and volume.  Regarding what happens next, is early season ‘conditioning’ (such as early formation of melt ponds over extensive areas) a factor to be considered?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2019, 06:48:09 AM »
The historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice extent is quite noteworthy, to say the least. It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 04:54:08 AM »
Regarding the 2019 Arctic Sea Ice Melt Season, has anyone noticed that the persistent chunk of ice off the Northeast Coast of Greenland is on the verge of going away this year? This is the persistent chunk that appears to be attached below the sea surface. It has had an amazing history of surviving. It will be interesting to see if this arctic sea ice survives in 2019.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 03:36:54 AM »
It has been extremely interesting to observe the late season reduction in Arctic Sea Ice extent that has been occurring over the past few days. While it appears that this event is being driven by a high pressure weather system over the central arctic that is concentrating the ice, as a long term follower of the forum it was surprising that there has been so little discussion of this very interesting event that has been occurring. It has been particularly surprising that essentially no one is posting on the geophysical mechanisms involved. If this event is being driven by the high pressure system presently in place over the arctic, it would appear that there could be a late season minimum this year; perhaps going below 4 million.
 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:06:57 AM »
First off, I think that the observation of landfast ice melt off of the Northeast coast of Greenland is relevant to the current 2019 Artic Sea Ice melting season discussion (to pre-empt inevitable comments from forum members who would suggest that this particular subject ought to be discussed somewhere else.)

Turns out, I have followed the annual melting off of the Northeast coast of Greenland with some interest for a number of years now. What I have observed is that this large chunk of ice is particularly resistant to dispersion and melting. It has been a very interesting element of the melting season to track.

In particular, there appears to be an underwater geologic feature that stabilizes the ice off the coast of Northeast Greenland such that going back on Worldview one will see that some big chunk of ice inevitably persists here every year. 

It now looks like some significant dispersion events are beginning to happen here.

I suggest that it will be interesting to see what happens to this ice as the current melting season progresses.
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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 03:53:25 AM »
Components of the Arctic Sea and the Arctic Region that are changing over time

Components of the climate system that are changing over time

How do these forces affect present events? In particular I am curious how Forum Members factor in such changes when assessing real time observations and comparing present events with historical observations. Clearly, the melting of the Artic Sea Ice is a dynamic event occurring in a complex system where multiple fundamental elements and processes are rapidly changing simultaneously.

Obviously, 2012 was seven years ago and a lot has changed in the Arctic and on the planet since then. It would appear that the models being used do not move as fast as this complex system changes.

Setting aside the unpredictable variable of the weather, it would still appear that unanticipated events may well occur in 2019 as a result of fundamental changes in the system that have not yet been appropriately understood or articulated.

More generally, is it possible here to gain some insight into how to understand a highly complex and rapidly changing system?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 04:51:08 AM »
I further suggest, that a key reason that what happens during the remainder of the Arctic Sea Ice melt season here in 2019 cannot be projected from historical results is that the fundamental properties of the system have changed.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 04:38:08 AM »
ajouis, Agreed. A relatively large amount of solar energy has entered the arctic system so far this year.

I would even venture to say that 2019 started out too sunny in May, when clouds and moisture are more helpful for melt onset. This is why 2019 was trailing years like 2010, 2012 and 2016 in surface preconditioning during the first two weeks of June.

Neven, thank you. Your comment drives home my point. Which is, that while the major introduction of energy to the system comes from solar energy, the discussion here tends to focus on the weather. What happened to that solar energy added to the arctic system this year when it was 'too sunny'? Understood, the sunny weather conditions in May this year were not optimal for the humidity driven formation on melt ponds. But that intense solar energy must have gone somewhere. A large amount of it was not reflected due to albedo. It appears to have been absorbed into the system. Even though such events may not be reflected in relatively near term responses, it would seem that such addition of energy to the Arctic system is important.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 03:31:00 AM »
As the Arctic Sea Ice melt season advances from the summer solstice through the period of maximal sea ice melt I thought it might be useful to post a simple list of factors that are important for understanding what is occurring.

Just one comment. Since the greatest source of energy available to this system is the sun (solar insolation) and I understand how the temperature gradient of relatively fresh vs salty water comes into play here, I am still curious why there is not more discussion regarding the effect of the change in arctic albedo. It would appear to be a very significant factor in 2019.

Has more energy than usual been added to the system this year? If so, what effect does that have?


Anyway, here is my list.

Arctic sea ice: Factors affecting the melt

The weather;

Surface air temperature

High and low pressure systems

Solar irradiance/albedo/cloud cover

Humidity/precipitation

Wind/dipoles/sea ice export

Wind/dipoles/cyclones/mixing of water temperature gradients

(Water temperature/ocean currents/salty vs fresh water temperature gradient*)

The condition of the ice;

Sea ice age/thickness

Preconditioning

Melt pond formation

Fragmentation

Distribution – Dispersion vs Concentration

Relevant data;

Weather info

Satellite observations

Model based assessments

On site observations

Historical observations

Speculation…




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