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Messages - bbr2314

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The rest / Re: Good music
« on: November 16, 2019, 10:25:37 PM »
IIRC that interpretation was widespread, at least among the anti-war hippy communities that sprang from nowhere at ~ that time.
A very powerful anti war message that resonated.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: November 14, 2019, 04:02:02 AM »
Live in was damn cold Tuesday morning. Broke out my winter down parka earlier than any recent year.

This line of thinking should be assessed by someone else.  It's not going to be debated emotionally here on this hobby forum.  I'm not here to play scientist with you lot or participate in a nerd fight.

How many times can I repeat the thesis in question?  It must be a round peg for square holes.

Polar vortex destruction is leading to decreasing atmospheric angular momentum, which is a feedback upon itself.

Major factors include:

1) ocean heat / thin sea ice
2) solar minimum
3) annual geopotential heights

If this is true, it is an unassessed feedback in dynamics that could meet the definition of abrupt runaway, a self-reinforcing feedback loop that leads to a relatively rapid change of system mode.

If not true, we'll see AAM roar positive, continuing to oscillate along a reasonable trend line, even if long term in decline.  In that case, it's just abrupt normal apocalyptic mainstream climate change,  which is well covered already.

I've not seen it addressed yet, that's what I'm here for.  I appreciate defending this line of thinking against solid reasoning, but this isn't going to become another forum nerd fight.  This is just a place to put it all down for future reference.

It might be evident in precipitation quantities that exceed the increase expected by mean global temperature.  It might be evident in winds or relative AAM.  I don't even have access to the GSDM as the CPC product was taken down and passwords on GSDMsolutions changed *both* within the past year.

What do I do at this point?

This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact

that's a different attribute at a different level.  no bite on the attitude.

I tend to believe the weather models that line up with the near term climatology.  that whole quadrupole thing is coming back in a big way.  See how many isobar figure 8s you can find across the north pole

240 hour GEM *is* the tropopause anomaly.  this is what is meant with "lining up with the climatology" as I understand it.  this thing is a wave guide for weather we don't like

It's the dynamics

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 08:18:15 AM »
bbr, give us a way to send blessings.  post paypal here or in pm.  defense

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:07:43 PM »
He is a denier troll and it was not a risk, it was a lie designed to further obfuscate and derail the discourse on this forum.

Yep, this isn't the only forum he does this garbage on. Unfortunately he made the denialist mistake of making a falsifiable prediction.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 04:36:56 AM »
high splash.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 11, 2019, 06:18:10 AM »
JAXA at 5.11 -130Kish though obvs Juan's post will be better  ;D
Thank you for your post.  :)
I am traveling with my family…  ;)
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

August 10th, 2019:
     5,106,603 km2, a century drop of -132,506 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 11, 2019, 12:52:01 AM »
Massive inflow of fire smoke today through the Laptev sea.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 08:59:52 PM »
Hello Rich. Unfortunately you are impossible to ignore.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 07:46:59 AM »
I remember last melt season FishOutOfWater commenting on how the cool/cloudy summer phenomena we've experienced for the last few years was not a trend at all climatologically because it was such a short time blip. His caution about banking on the cool summer trend seems to be coming to fruition.

It was a boost in aerosol intrusion into the Arctic.  The current economic cycle has curtailed this cooling effect significantly this summer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 08:02:19 PM »
You made it personal. How can this help?

Agreed. Let's all stay on-topic, keep it as short as possible, only quote the bits we want to reply to, not engage in meta-discussions, and take off-topic discussions elsewhere asap. This thread is for discussing what is going on in the Arctic, right here, right now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 27, 2019, 02:13:57 PM »
Today NSIDC's diff map (dark blue/red shows ice extent in/decreases. Light blue/red where ice concentration increased/decreased more than 7%) shows the ice pack retreating along the Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS ice edge.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 03:22:18 AM »
Look above the ice surface, where the enthalpy of fusion does not mask the atmospheric heat.  This is why high pressure over the Arctic is bad.  Because it comes from both Beringian and Scandinavian directions simulataneously, cuts off an anticyclone, which parks smack dab over the North Pole.

Handful of analog years or not, this is unprecedented across the board in severity and is beginning to act like a system in transition.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 12:52:42 AM »
It looks like the heat threatening to break records in France is then heading to the Arctic , delivery time @ a week by latest gfs forecast . Probably sooner .
 Why does bbr come here ? Share your Humanity and don't ask ! On the dullest day in winter he is as present as he is today .

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 21, 2019, 10:03:05 PM »
There's a strong persistent dipole developing in the ECMWF that will last through the 10 day forecast period if it verifies. The heat and subsidence will continue over northern Canada and Greenland until further notice.

This is the weather that will put 2019 ahead of 2012 if this forecast verifies and I think it will because it is consistent with climatology and persistence of this summer's weather patterns.

FYI, the 850 temps we have seen in the past week do not indicate negative heat balance as far as I know. In some areas they indicate rising motions over the ice water. Clouds over these areas would have limited radiative heat loss and loss of energy from the ocean/ ice system. Warm air advection has been strong in the Kara sea over the past few days. Over all that has kept temperatures above freezing in most of the Arctic and has led to continued flow of heat from the atmosphere to the ice on average in the Arctic.


guilty as charged LOL

 :o :o :o :o

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: July 05, 2019, 06:06:53 PM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 11:41:21 PM »
Current forecast continues to be for improved conditions for ice retention.


I’ve called out Hauber as a troll for years.
He has always engaged in the same bad-faith behavior.
I hope it’s clearer to everyone, politeness =/= sincerity.

I’m just messing with you Bbr. People give you a hard time because you have a crazy theory about a new impending ice age.

I view you as one of the best weather forecasters on the forum.  I don’t agree with all of your theories, I do respect what you have to say. 

Thank you for being an active participant on these forums 👍🏻

A blob of snow on the Central Siberian shore, and directly opposite snow on the CAA and the Canadian mainland adjoining refuse to die. (and a tiny blob in the Torngat mountains and North East Canadian coast. The Quebec glacial sheet lives!)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 21, 2019, 12:05:37 AM »
It doesn't matter all that much at this stage, but perhaps just a little: It seems NH snow cover is lowest on record at the moment, but it's difficult to see do to the graph's layout. It's more visible on the graph for North America.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 08:51:52 AM »
I agree about the craziness of the weather forecast. I think it is the worst heatwave in the Arctic ever, even worst than the one in July 2007 or July 2011 or July 2012. As a consequence of the warmth, moisture, and high pressure, Z500 height is mind blowing with values up to 5 800 gdam !
A simple but convenient way to define the northern border of the tropical belt is by using the belt of highest Z500. Here this belt is near to break away with a secondary maximum wich, around the Pacific, is not so secondary as Z500 is about the same other Arctic than over Hawaïi ! I have never seen such a thing.... This also means clear skies but also, as moisture content is high, reduced outgoing longwave radiation.  I agree with Frivolous, we can't overstate how epic is the weather forecast.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 14, 2019, 01:55:19 AM »
I will apply the term 'catastrophe' to the melting of the ice 'up north' without feeling any sense of exaggeration . The catastrophe of the ongoing thaw/melt in the East Siberian and Laptev seas is that it is another of the boxes ticked on the way to a season melt-fest .
 As A-team points out such weather is secondary to the real story of the season .. the unprecedented export of a large part of the multi-year ice to destruction . The export continues over the coming week with the wind blowing from the ESS/Laptev toward Barnetz/Fram . A large part of the remaining older ice will move into the killing zone to make way for the new ice so it can make way for open water .
  One of the results is that much of the colder air in the forecast is in Barnetz and Kara while the Siberian / Pacific side of the Arctic basin is basking in temperatures we in W Europe would appreciate atm.
 Then there was the snow .. strong arguements that extra snow on shore and ice would help delay the melt. No snow on shore or on onshore ice ..
 So I agreed with AM2's anguish at seeing yesterday's SMOS image . Even if it may not accurately reflect reality , it does reflect ongoing melt and the melt is going on and on , as am I . :)  b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 03:30:40 PM »
Wow the pseudo-science cavalry join together.

pseudo would mean that one is claiming to be a scientist but  isn't. if that's not the case it's only about providing impressions and opinions based on experience and logical thinking sometimes right sometimes wrong, exactly like the real scientists are sometimes spot on and sometimes far off the marks.

however that is and in case you disagree, no need to be arrogant because often those who are no experts in one field are close to be experts in hundreds of fields and have a bigger picture of things.

and then again others are experts in other fields where you are not, perhaps they're even scientist but in other fields.

in short, keep this kind of thoughts for yourself, at least you have just proven that you are no expert in many fields like education, communication, style, philosophy and many more.

so long

bbr2314...I would like to apologize to you for comments I made earlier about wishing this thread included other topics and not just your concerns about reglaciation as if this was somehow your responsibility. If I would like other relevant topics about NH snow cover to be discussed, that is my responsibility.

Thought I would repost this land cover map for Canada that was posted on this thread last fall. It is interesting to see how the land cover map closely matches the permafrost map. I suppose this is not surprising but it does provide us with an idea of how land cover will change as permafrost degrades.

I would like to thank bbr2314 for tracking snowfall since last fall. He has given us a good record for snow cover in relationship to permafrost in NA. I've copied a snow cover depth map that he provided on September 28 and the story it tells is not good for the permafrost in some areas of Canada. Research shows that a foot of early season snow is enough to insulate permafrost from the brutal cold of the northern latitude winters, preventing the surface layer from refreezing. Looking at this map, it is obvious that much of the permafrost in northern Quebec is at risk if this seasonal pattern of heavy early snows in this region is the new normal.

Is there any source for snow cover from a couple of decades ago? Is this heavy snowfall in northern Quebec a new phenomenon?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 10:40:21 AM »
Removed a couple of comments. If it's difficult to quit, I can help with that. Next step is moderation/ban.

NSIDC has good permafrost maps.,,desc/facetFilters=%257B%257D/pageNumber=1/itemsPerPage=25

Would be interesting to track a season of snow fall to see where the heavy early snows fall in relationship to the permafrost.

If you pull up the map on NSIDC website you can magnify the map to see all of the detail.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:35:36 PM »
GISS-LOTI came in at +0.99°C for April.  2nd warmest April on record behind of course April 2016. 

Something I continue to highlight is that the drop off after the 2015-2016 super Niño was much less than previous Niño's: 2010, 1998, etc.

The running 12-month mean anomaly is now back up to the linear trend of 0.20°C per decade.  It took post 1998 & 2010 much longer to rebound.
I've been playing with your graph - adding lines. I sure hope the last line added - the short red one, is not the shape of things to come.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 25, 2019, 09:35:14 AM »
This is what Bbr is talking about:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 24, 2019, 10:11:07 PM »
once again a -nao modeled days 6-10 is turning into pacific centered blocking. this has been happening since 2013. click to animate

The rest / Re: Climate on Reddit
« on: April 23, 2019, 05:01:18 AM »
bbr2314 said

The ASIF has a very outsized influence (IMO) on actual discourse.

I agree with this, spreading misinformation and discontent here would be (denier) money well spent.

I remember Shared Humanity complaining last summer when Chicago was breaking heat records.  I was there during some of the worst of it.  I guess this is payback for everyone who complained about the heat 🤔

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 21, 2018, 10:53:33 PM »
Specific predictions are good. We like them, and it's a shame none of the doubters made a specific prediction with a number on it (other than "normal" values, and iirc someone said 75% extent on Dec 1st).

Your calibration was just a bit off this time. As if it was a 5th percentile 'highest plausible' value, rather than a 95th percentile confident prediction. This sort of calibration is what the September Prediction Challenge was about - which I very much approve of.

I'm considering making a prediction on whether / how early we'll observe mixing to 400m+ depth in the Sub-Polar Gyre in February/March. If I do make a prediction I'll probably get egg on my face too :P

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2018, 03:21:36 PM »
Ah well, Ned W, happens.

I will admit I never expected JAXA extent loss to be half a million km2 below the 10 year average, and I did not expect to see a sea that just would not melt.

Well said bbr, I agree with all your points. To add, the biggest die-off in relative terms will surely be in sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth rates are the highest and development and accumulation of "hard capital" are the lowest.

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 17, 2018, 06:04:44 AM »
If only 35% reduction equals 1 C, 90% reduction in Aerosols would lead to 3 C rise. That's the conservative approach. This forum doesn't belong in the sea ice tho

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 17, 2018, 06:02:26 AM »
There is no solution. The decline in aerosols from any actions would push us past +2.5C vs baseline. At that point Greenland hosing accelerates beyond current levels and we are beyond f*cked.

The only hope we have of living out our current lives without severe disruption is to continue business as usual and continue burning coal / etc. As bad as that sounds. Without it, the world will torch and everyone will die anyways, so we might as well continue BAU for as long as possible, which probably won't be much longer anyways.

Alternately, we could release a plague with 100% mortality in Eurasia / Africa and allow all the rich people to come to the Americas and Australia as long as they invest in real estate, quarantining using oceans (Japan / the UK can survive too). That would probably allow sufficient death / forest regrowth to take CO2 down majorly, and the capital influx / extra $$$ for retrenchment of infrastructure could allow survival in the remaining habitable regions even with the +2.5C temps vs. 1900. That probably leaves a billion or so remaining humans, which would bring us down to manageable levels.

Explain how if this accidental side effect of our GHG emissions is the only thing keeping us from apocalypse,  we are incapable of intentionally doing something more severe to counteract the GHG effect.

That seems like a hard question to answer. Long story short, aerosols are a problem, and they are an near-term problem. A 35%-80% reduction in industrial activity leads to a quick 1 degree C rise in temperature.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 01:09:53 AM »

Others are doing a good job, too. It's a group effort.

Thank you Neven, and I agree.   I very much enjoy seeing what everyone has to say, and there are a lot of very knowledgeable people who add to the discussion!

I should have been more clear in my request.  bbr and frivolous have fun forecasts because they both typically add a lot of emotion, and that makes it interesting.  I think they both are very knowledgeable (even though people disagree with bbr on other points). 

Your forecasts are more restrained, but highly respected, and I enjoy seeing what you have to say.

I certainly meant no disrespect to all of the great people who post on this forum.  My main point is that the melting season is winding down, and I'm anxious to see if we have any late weather surprises in front of us. 

I'm just not very good at looking at the weather charts.   Thank you for your post. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 12, 2018, 07:33:58 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?

Of course not and smoke in the air from fires has no bearing on the warmth of the air.
Actually, it can.’s-effect-on-atmospheric-warming/article16703349.ece

Among other effects, it increases capture of UV which can heat the upper and mid atmosphere.

Not certain exactly how this affects melting but unlikely the effect is good. The effect is likely more pronounced off peak insolation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 12, 2018, 07:23:32 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
He may extrapolation from research like this:

Rod, "The Beaufort gyre has clearly slowed, and possibly reversed, which might mark the first reversal since before the 2007 crash."
 Could you give me some info on this claim? I watch the ITP Whoi data and 108 and it's path around the Beaufort seems sluggish but a reversal , a long one , would be something I haven't seen .
Would be important I agree if it were to happen.

I'm not claiming it has reversed.  Only that it might have.  The drift pattern of ITP108 is consistent with a reversal.   The ice it is attached to ignored the typical clockwise rotation.  It has now clearly stalled, so there is not much more we can learn from it.

Unicorn and A-Team have posted several images this melt season that show the ice flows are moving in a direction inconsistent with the typical gyre current.  I consider that to be the most compelling evidence. 

Hyperion and FishOutofWater also showed several model outputs that indicated the gyre currents had were circulating fresh water down through the CAA.  FOW commented on this most recently about a week ago. 

A close inspection of the Parry Channel over the last month (when it's not cloudy which is rare) indicates the ice is piling up in a way that would be consistent with ice being forced downward and opposite of the typical clockwise gyre pattern. 

Finally, the area in the CAB that would normally be full of ice from a typical clockwise gyre is streatched thin and looks as if it might be ice free by the end of the melt season. 

The experts have said that the gyre is due for a reversal when persistent low pressure systems settle into the Beaufort.  The Beaufort has certainly had persistent lows this summer. 

This is all circumstantial evidence.  That is why I said that at a minimum the gyre has slowed, and possibly reversed.

As I'm sure you know, we are many years past the predicted reversal.  We will just need to wait now until the experts chime in and tell us what they think has really happened.


There will be no critical mass and if there is it will only bring about cataclysm sooner than later due to the reduction in aerosols and resultant boost to AGW of +.5C-+1.5C. We are screwed and there is no hope. Sorry!

I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write.

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