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Messages - bbr2314

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A blob of snow on the Central Siberian shore, and directly opposite snow on the CAA and the Canadian mainland adjoining refuse to die. (and a tiny blob in the Torngat mountains and North East Canadian coast. The Quebec glacial sheet lives!)

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 21, 2019, 12:05:37 AM »
It doesn't matter all that much at this stage, but perhaps just a little: It seems NH snow cover is lowest on record at the moment, but it's difficult to see do to the graph's layout. It's more visible on the graph for North America.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 20, 2019, 08:51:52 AM »
I agree about the craziness of the weather forecast. I think it is the worst heatwave in the Arctic ever, even worst than the one in July 2007 or July 2011 or July 2012. As a consequence of the warmth, moisture, and high pressure, Z500 height is mind blowing with values up to 5 800 gdam !
A simple but convenient way to define the northern border of the tropical belt is by using the belt of highest Z500. Here this belt is near to break away with a secondary maximum wich, around the Pacific, is not so secondary as Z500 is about the same other Arctic than over Hawaïi ! I have never seen such a thing.... This also means clear skies but also, as moisture content is high, reduced outgoing longwave radiation.  I agree with Frivolous, we can't overstate how epic is the weather forecast.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 14, 2019, 01:55:19 AM »
I will apply the term 'catastrophe' to the melting of the ice 'up north' without feeling any sense of exaggeration . The catastrophe of the ongoing thaw/melt in the East Siberian and Laptev seas is that it is another of the boxes ticked on the way to a season melt-fest .
 As A-team points out such weather is secondary to the real story of the season .. the unprecedented export of a large part of the multi-year ice to destruction . The export continues over the coming week with the wind blowing from the ESS/Laptev toward Barnetz/Fram . A large part of the remaining older ice will move into the killing zone to make way for the new ice so it can make way for open water .
  One of the results is that much of the colder air in the forecast is in Barnetz and Kara while the Siberian / Pacific side of the Arctic basin is basking in temperatures we in W Europe would appreciate atm.
 Then there was the snow .. strong arguements that extra snow on shore and ice would help delay the melt. No snow on shore or on onshore ice ..
 So I agreed with AM2's anguish at seeing yesterday's SMOS image . Even if it may not accurately reflect reality , it does reflect ongoing melt and the melt is going on and on , as am I . :)  b.c.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 03:30:40 PM »
Wow the pseudo-science cavalry join together.

pseudo would mean that one is claiming to be a scientist but  isn't. if that's not the case it's only about providing impressions and opinions based on experience and logical thinking sometimes right sometimes wrong, exactly like the real scientists are sometimes spot on and sometimes far off the marks.

however that is and in case you disagree, no need to be arrogant because often those who are no experts in one field are close to be experts in hundreds of fields and have a bigger picture of things.

and then again others are experts in other fields where you are not, perhaps they're even scientist but in other fields.

in short, keep this kind of thoughts for yourself, at least you have just proven that you are no expert in many fields like education, communication, style, philosophy and many more.

so long

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bbr2314...I would like to apologize to you for comments I made earlier about wishing this thread included other topics and not just your concerns about reglaciation as if this was somehow your responsibility. If I would like other relevant topics about NH snow cover to be discussed, that is my responsibility.

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Thought I would repost this land cover map for Canada that was posted on this thread last fall. It is interesting to see how the land cover map closely matches the permafrost map. I suppose this is not surprising but it does provide us with an idea of how land cover will change as permafrost degrades.

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I would like to thank bbr2314 for tracking snowfall since last fall. He has given us a good record for snow cover in relationship to permafrost in NA. I've copied a snow cover depth map that he provided on September 28 and the story it tells is not good for the permafrost in some areas of Canada. Research shows that a foot of early season snow is enough to insulate permafrost from the brutal cold of the northern latitude winters, preventing the surface layer from refreezing. Looking at this map, it is obvious that much of the permafrost in northern Quebec is at risk if this seasonal pattern of heavy early snows in this region is the new normal.

Is there any source for snow cover from a couple of decades ago? Is this heavy snowfall in northern Quebec a new phenomenon?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 10:40:21 AM »
Removed a couple of comments. If it's difficult to quit, I can help with that. Next step is moderation/ban.

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NSIDC has good permafrost maps.

https://nsidc.org/data/search/#keywords=frozen+ground/sortKeys=score,,desc/facetFilters=%257B%257D/pageNumber=1/itemsPerPage=25

Would be interesting to track a season of snow fall to see where the heavy early snows fall in relationship to the permafrost.

If you pull up the map on NSIDC website you can magnify the map to see all of the detail.

12
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:35:36 PM »
GISS-LOTI came in at +0.99°C for April.  2nd warmest April on record behind of course April 2016. 

Something I continue to highlight is that the drop off after the 2015-2016 super Niño was much less than previous Niño's: 2010, 1998, etc.

The running 12-month mean anomaly is now back up to the linear trend of 0.20°C per decade.  It took post 1998 & 2010 much longer to rebound.
I've been playing with your graph - adding lines. I sure hope the last line added - the short red one, is not the shape of things to come.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 25, 2019, 09:35:14 AM »
This is what Bbr is talking about:

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 24, 2019, 10:11:07 PM »
once again a -nao modeled days 6-10 is turning into pacific centered blocking. this has been happening since 2013. click to animate

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The rest / Re: Climate on Reddit
« on: April 23, 2019, 05:01:18 AM »
bbr2314 said

The ASIF has a very outsized influence (IMO) on actual discourse.



I agree with this, spreading misinformation and discontent here would be (denier) money well spent.

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I remember Shared Humanity complaining last summer when Chicago was breaking heat records.  I was there during some of the worst of it.  I guess this is payback for everyone who complained about the heat 🤔


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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 21, 2018, 10:53:33 PM »
Specific predictions are good. We like them, and it's a shame none of the doubters made a specific prediction with a number on it (other than "normal" values, and iirc someone said 75% extent on Dec 1st).

Your calibration was just a bit off this time. As if it was a 5th percentile 'highest plausible' value, rather than a 95th percentile confident prediction. This sort of calibration is what the September Prediction Challenge was about - which I very much approve of.

I'm considering making a prediction on whether / how early we'll observe mixing to 400m+ depth in the Sub-Polar Gyre in February/March. If I do make a prediction I'll probably get egg on my face too :P

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2018, 03:21:36 PM »
Ah well, Ned W, ..it happens.

I will admit I never expected JAXA extent loss to be half a million km2 below the 10 year average, and I did not expect to see a sea that just would not melt.

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Well said bbr, I agree with all your points. To add, the biggest die-off in relative terms will surely be in sub-Saharan Africa, where population growth rates are the highest and development and accumulation of "hard capital" are the lowest.

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Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 17, 2018, 06:04:44 AM »
If only 35% reduction equals 1 C, 90% reduction in Aerosols would lead to 3 C rise. That's the conservative approach. This forum doesn't belong in the sea ice tho

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Policy and solutions / Re: Policy & Solutions
« on: August 17, 2018, 06:02:26 AM »
There is no solution. The decline in aerosols from any actions would push us past +2.5C vs baseline. At that point Greenland hosing accelerates beyond current levels and we are beyond f*cked.

The only hope we have of living out our current lives without severe disruption is to continue business as usual and continue burning coal / etc. As bad as that sounds. Without it, the world will torch and everyone will die anyways, so we might as well continue BAU for as long as possible, which probably won't be much longer anyways.

Alternately, we could release a plague with 100% mortality in Eurasia / Africa and allow all the rich people to come to the Americas and Australia as long as they invest in real estate, quarantining using oceans (Japan / the UK can survive too). That would probably allow sufficient death / forest regrowth to take CO2 down majorly, and the capital influx / extra $$$ for retrenchment of infrastructure could allow survival in the remaining habitable regions even with the +2.5C temps vs. 1900. That probably leaves a billion or so remaining humans, which would bring us down to manageable levels.

Explain how if this accidental side effect of our GHG emissions is the only thing keeping us from apocalypse,  we are incapable of intentionally doing something more severe to counteract the GHG effect.

That seems like a hard question to answer. Long story short, aerosols are a problem, and they are an near-term problem. A 35%-80% reduction in industrial activity leads to a quick 1 degree C rise in temperature.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 13, 2018, 01:09:53 AM »

Others are doing a good job, too. It's a group effort.

Thank you Neven, and I agree.   I very much enjoy seeing what everyone has to say, and there are a lot of very knowledgeable people who add to the discussion!

I should have been more clear in my request.  bbr and frivolous have fun forecasts because they both typically add a lot of emotion, and that makes it interesting.  I think they both are very knowledgeable (even though people disagree with bbr on other points). 

Your forecasts are more restrained, but highly respected, and I enjoy seeing what you have to say.

I certainly meant no disrespect to all of the great people who post on this forum.  My main point is that the melting season is winding down, and I'm anxious to see if we have any late weather surprises in front of us. 

I'm just not very good at looking at the weather charts.   Thank you for your post. 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 12, 2018, 07:33:58 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?

Of course not and smoke in the air from fires has no bearing on the warmth of the air.
Actually, it can.

https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/IIT-team-tracks-brown-carbon’s-effect-on-atmospheric-warming/article16703349.ece

Among other effects, it increases capture of UV which can heat the upper and mid atmosphere.

Not certain exactly how this affects melting but unlikely the effect is good. The effect is likely more pronounced off peak insolation.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 12, 2018, 07:23:32 PM »
The amount of smoke is an indicator that the incoming airmass is very warm.

Do you have any evidence backing up the claim that "amount of smoke" means "very warm" airmass?
He may extrapolation from research like this:

 https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2960

25
Rod, "The Beaufort gyre has clearly slowed, and possibly reversed, which might mark the first reversal since before the 2007 crash."
 Could you give me some info on this claim? I watch the ITP Whoi data and 108 and it's path around the Beaufort seems sluggish but a reversal , a long one , would be something I haven't seen .
Would be important I agree if it were to happen.

I'm not claiming it has reversed.  Only that it might have.  The drift pattern of ITP108 is consistent with a reversal.   The ice it is attached to ignored the typical clockwise rotation.  It has now clearly stalled, so there is not much more we can learn from it.

Unicorn and A-Team have posted several images this melt season that show the ice flows are moving in a direction inconsistent with the typical gyre current.  I consider that to be the most compelling evidence. 

Hyperion and FishOutofWater also showed several model outputs that indicated the gyre currents had were circulating fresh water down through the CAA.  FOW commented on this most recently about a week ago. 

A close inspection of the Parry Channel over the last month (when it's not cloudy which is rare) indicates the ice is piling up in a way that would be consistent with ice being forced downward and opposite of the typical clockwise gyre pattern. 

Finally, the area in the CAB that would normally be full of ice from a typical clockwise gyre is streatched thin and looks as if it might be ice free by the end of the melt season. 

The experts have said that the gyre is due for a reversal when persistent low pressure systems settle into the Beaufort.  The Beaufort has certainly had persistent lows this summer. 

This is all circumstantial evidence.  That is why I said that at a minimum the gyre has slowed, and possibly reversed.

As I'm sure you know, we are many years past the predicted reversal.  We will just need to wait now until the experts chime in and tell us what they think has really happened.





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There will be no critical mass and if there is it will only bring about cataclysm sooner than later due to the reduction in aerosols and resultant boost to AGW of +.5C-+1.5C. We are screwed and there is no hope. Sorry!

I detest what you write, but I would give my life to make it possible for you to continue to write.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 09:29:32 PM »
Looks like today was the day for Nares:


It looks like the impact of "no Fram" due to warmth will imminently entail the re-opening of Nares for export. Massive cracking extending towards it as of yesterday. Probably won't take much to break the arch and start early transport of MYI toward Baffin.

Some self awareness of previous predictions would be welcome

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 08:35:49 PM »
EC 12z op forecast has the first low to 975 hpa and the other cyclone down to 971 hpa. Yes, this is going to be a wild week ahead!


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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 29, 2018, 10:51:40 PM »
Here's how the CMOS microwave maps look for the past 40 days.

Downloaded from: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/
...
There is a definite trend from beige to other colours: dry -> wet

I played around a bit with those SMOS images.  I wrote a script to download the daily SMOS images for June 2010-2018 and to count the number of beige pixels in each image:




Average for the first 28 days of June:

(For what it's worth...)

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