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Messages - guygee

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 26, 2019, 04:24:22 PM »
Early loss of ice area inside the Arctic Basin as well as outside easily explains the accumulated heat. Check out the series of attached charts (big thanks to Tealight / Nico Sun for providing these in real time). Note the AWP calculation does not take clouds/weather into account, just solar angles and ice/water albedo.
Not surprisingly, the same areas with the highest anomalies are the same ones with relatively delayed refreeze. I expect this pattern to continue in November and December.

Spot on. The AWP matches the SST map almost perfectly. Except for one area, the Laptev bite.

The atlantification has caused the upwelling to be warmer (probably), and the ice pack mobility has allowed the ice in the area to consistently move toward the fram strait (definitely).

I expect this will last several more weeks, and in the next few years become almost a year-round feature.

A similar thing seems to be happening  in the lincoln sea, but there is just a lot more thicker ice in the area.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 09, 2019, 06:59:51 AM »
October 4-8.

2018.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 08, 2019, 08:05:12 AM »
August 3-7.

2018.

4
Hi Wipneus,
Could you please update the "AMSR2 melt extent" charts? They lack 2019.
Thanks.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extentA.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extent.png

Done (the good graphs where overwritten by an old version hours later).

BTW, I prefer these newer graphs:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extentC.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extent-ratioC.png

The "C" means that data from Ascending and Descending orbits are combined.

The attached graphs for the day show that the ice 2019 is substantially more in melt than 2013-2018, absolutely and relatively. 2012 remains to be seen.

As always the data that I use is for research and validation. From the ADS website:
Quote
This product is opened to the public for the usages of research and validation of algorithms. The Arctic Data archive System (ADS) is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this data.



5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 30, 2019, 04:14:16 PM »
I've taken some time out today to write a very extensive blog post on current events in the Arctic: June 2019, one hell of a month.

Conclusion:

Quote
In recent years, the Arctic has dodged bullets and cannonballs. It looks like this year, it may have to dodge a nuclear bomb.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2019, 07:35:19 PM »
In the continuing absence of the PIOMAS numbers, here's my own take on the current state of the sea ice in the Arctic:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/01/facts-about-the-arctic-in-january-2019/

Quote
According to The Economist today:

"America’s government shutdown has become the longest in history. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain either stuck at home or forced to work without pay."

and according to the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington:

"Due to the US Government Shutdown, PIOMAS ice volume and thickness data which depend on federal government generated reanalysis products, are currently not updated."

Plus another blast from the past courtesy of the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, where everybody still appears to be hard at work. Note that there's no sign of the Odden Ice Tongue on any of those maps!


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 01, 2019, 12:05:20 AM »
Happy New Year!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2018, 07:14:06 PM »
Happy New Year from a truth refugee in Hair Furor's America.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2018, 02:25:57 PM »
Happy new year to everyone and greetings from Russia.!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 10, 2018, 09:56:44 PM »
I updated my 1 year trailing average extent graph using these nsidc data ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
It was first posted in the wrong thread, it will be better here.

It is a little bit out of topic at this time of the year, but I find interesting that even if we don't break absolute records right now, on yearly average we are quite low, the record being for the time frame 2016 03 29 to 2017 03 28 at 10.11361.

Values are in 10^6 sq km.

Maybe it doesn't look like that, but the graph goes all the way to the 8th of August 2018.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 30, 2018, 02:49:31 AM »
but until we see year-round ice-free arctic it will take centuries

I very much doubt about that plural.

in fact i believe that as long as this planet is supporting life, means temps are withing a range that allows for life and as long as there will be 5-6 months wihout sunshine, that we NEVER shall see year round ice-free arctic. <snippage>

Sorry to disabuse you, but we have geological evidence of exactly that - year round ice free Arctic - in the Pliocene - 3.7-2.2 MYBP. - under current atmospheric conditions.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-free-arctic-in-pliocene-last-time-co2-levels-above-400ppm/

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 02, 2018, 11:03:22 AM »
Hyperbole and hypersensitivity, wild claims, irrelevant data, way too much garbage. Reading this forum is becoming a pain due to one individual. How many warnings so far Neven?

If you want a perfect echo chamber, go to WUWT (if it still exists).  ;)

Look, I want to give people who go out on a limb some leeway, especially if they post maps and graphs. But I will take action if it leads to too much conflict. People who make extraordinary claims, need to be able to take extraordinary criticism. That is simply how it works.

With that said I will now make my rounds of the ASIG and look at the ECMWF forecast.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 23, 2018, 02:39:31 PM »
Hyperion - I  recommend to calm down real fast. This kind of post you just did is a big no no.
Regardless, Friv is a highly respected "weatherman".
Apology if you or anyone took that the wrong way Oren. That was a bit of light hearted teasing with not a shred of animosity or lack of calm involved.
 I do however stand by the opinions I've shared regarding the accuracy of modelling by what ever agency in the current paradigm, of things like future weather, current currents, salinity, water temperature. Direct observations are the only things I trust, and I think there is far too great a tendency for people to believe an attractively presented picture on a computer screen is real, rather than looking outside.  I spend several hours a day monitoring weather forecasts, cloud radars, checking what weather systems and the Sea are doing at all altitudes. Temperature, winds, currents, incoming moisture levels, rain radar charts, sea surface temperatures and Anomalies. Often my life may be at risk if I do not have a good idea six hours in advance what is coming from the Atmosphere and Ocean. And more often than not the last few years the computers have been moderately to massively wrong about what winds and rain events were incoming. Just ten days ago gfs miss forecast the track of a major extra tropical low pressure system that came through here by 130 degrees, and about 1000 km six hours in advance, 2000 km 12 hours from the forecast, but got windspeed right. Local met computers got the track right two days in advance but forecast twice the windspeed we got. This sort of thing is very common in recent years,particularly in a volatile maritime climate like we have. Perhaps not so readily observed if you are swaddled in a continent.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 23, 2018, 11:56:02 AM »
The only notable Sea Surface Salinity event I've seen is that we have Atlantic water intruding farther poleward along Svalbard compared to previous years. Attached is HYCOM Sea Surface Salinity for June 22nd.

My guess ist, that in the future we'll talk about this year for what happened on the Atlantic side. Everything else is average or below, but the Atlantic side holds the cards for a stunning event.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 23, 2018, 11:52:03 AM »
One part I'd like to know re SMOS data: Is the meltponding appearance in the CAA from actual top melt or from recent rain over the region? It has been raining there, but there was a strong temperature inversion layer with a cool surface. How do we know how much actual melt has occurred there?


Also, midrange forecasting has been pretty useful here. It showed us the Warm Air Advection event from the first cyclone well in advance to form a -DA pattern, and now it's showing us moving into opposite phase with a +DA pattern. That's essentially a forecast for a 1-2 punch to set up proper melt-ponding around the entire Arctic during peak insolation.

From looking at worldview I haven't seen much evidence of bottom melt so far. Most ice that's melted has broken up into smaller floes or has drifted into open water that has had time to warm.

The only notable Sea Surface Salinity event I've seen is that we have Atlantic water intruding farther poleward along Svalbard compared to previous years. Attached is HYCOM Sea Surface Salinity for June 22nd.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 27, 2018, 12:51:08 PM »
Thank you, Hyperion, for your reply and the useful information regarding the atmospheric weather systems moving energy from the Middle Atlantic towards the general area of Svalbard.  To clarify, my comments have all been with reference to ocean surface currents, which generally travel at least an order of magnitude slower than atmospheric storm systems, but which are important because they transport enormous amounts of energy.
 
Anomaly maps often require nuanced interpretation, but the significant gap in positive anomalies between the huge warm patch in the Middle Atlantic and the west coast of Britain and Ireland (the last image in your second post, showing Atlantic SSTA) at least raises the question as to the extent that the surface currents of the Atlantic ocean gyre are bringing extra warm water to the Svalbard region.  One would expect a continuous strong positive anomaly between the two areas if a lot of extra heat were being transferred thus.  That said, this SSTA map is just one small slice of data.
   
As to the Nature paper on the slowing of the Atlantic Ocean's circulation being out of date (it was published in April 2018), if there are more recently published studies showing that Atlantic circulation has speeded up recently, or indeed whether any oceanic gyre has speeded up recently, I would be most interested to read them.  Such information could be of immense significance for the Arctic ice sheet.
     
Quote
I am puzzled.  Hasn't recent research https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04086-4 indicated that the AMOC (which includes the Gulf Stream, which is part of the North Atlantic oceanic gyre) has slowed in the past decade or so?   AMOC going AWOL?  Clarification would be welcome.
Sure Pagophilus, there may have been some Gulfstream slowing at the time of publication of that paper. But now. Well we just ain't in Kansas anymore. :'(
The cyclone cannon that has fired up off new York is spitting a new one towards the south east coast of Greenland every couple of days. These have been sucking all the moisture and heat out of the tropical Atlantic and sweeping the warm tropical water along for the ride. Over the past couple of weeks they have been getting their tops ripped of by upper level winds about between Iceland and Greenland, though often reforming near Svalbard. Its striking how there is a strong river of air straight lining from the Western tropical Atlantic to nth of Finland at all tropospheric altitudes more often than not recently.
The anti clockwise rotation of these cyclones has also been persistently sucking northerlies down the west coast of Greenland. Some pics from this week:

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