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Messages - Killian

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2019, 10:09:32 AM »
Hi Killian,
sorry you had a typo

"Daily Changes Needed to Exceed 2012 low on Oct. 10. (Related to effect of GAC and it's import vs. 2019's melt cycle.)"

Oct. 10 should almost certainly be Aug. 10.

You might want to edit your post.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 04:26:28 PM »
I would rather read or scroll by an occasional post about blueberries in Russia, even though we don't need to infer climate or temperatures through plants in this day and age.

However, when each of the blueberries is followed by 8 (and counting) posts arguing whether it's OK to post about blueberries, that becomes the actual problem. I'd say about 90% of the offtopic posts in this thread is people arguing about whether something was offtopic or not, so perhaps let's cut down on that instead and let the occasional blueberry posts be?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:39:51 PM »

NOTE: Thanks to feedback, I've decided the daily change data are repetitive of efforts by Garcia and Gerontocrat and will not include them here in the future.

Hey Killian,

I'll admit I often scroll by your posts when I don't have time, but even presenting duplicate data in a slightly different format can be good, post away, since you keep the same format day to day it's very easy to identify and skip if someone wants, and it (imo) fits the requirements of this thread... okay so that's enough discussion about the thread it's been a bin intense this year but I did have a thought that tickled my funny bone a little - we could could all form a committee with it's own thread to discuss the proper inclusion of posts on this thread and maybe other committee's for other threads...... then we'd need a thread to nominate committee members, and a seperate one to post the meeting minutes... it got funny in my head fast so I thought I'd share, cheers!

Liam

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:09:53 AM »
I have just returned from Croatia. Thanks to everyone for the condolences. In coming days, I'll try and get things in order here on the Forum.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 02:35:27 AM »
Does this software have a blocking function?

Yes, there's some kind of ignore file. I haven't used it personally, but I think you can find details on the Forum Decorum thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1562.0.html

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 10, 2019, 03:16:41 PM »
One question about this graph on Karsten Haustein's website.
Does this mean the GFS model is underestimating temperatures, or is it the other way around?
See chart at https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg212351.html#msg212351

    Non-expert talking, but I've been tracking GFS prediction vs. GISTEMP finalized values for several years.  Looking at the chart and my monthly comparisons indicates that the chart is saying that for Jan, Feb, Mar and Apr the GFS forecast turned out to be lower than the subsequent GISTEMP observations (by 0.06 C averaged across those 4 months).  For May, the GFS forecast turned out to be slightly (0.01 C) above the reported GISTEMP observation. 
   
    June forecasts were running above verification until mid-June.  On June 12 NOAA switched to new FV3-GFS model that so far has been underestimating global surface temperature when compared to verification.

      As of July 10, based on observed GISTEMP for Jan-May, and GFS forecasts for June and July 1-17, the estimate for end of year 2019 average is ca. 1.17 C above 1850-1900.  2019 will be first or second place (85% chance) relative to all other years in 1880-2019 GISTEMP record.  2019 is near record warm with only moderate El Nino effect, and on downward side of solar cycle which has a real but smaller influence.

    Bottom line: The planet continues to warm.  IPCC projections are based on straight line 30-year average projection of  0.2 (+/- 0.1) C per decade.  But a closer look shows that the rate of increase is increasing, e.g. 2009-2019 (11 years to includes a full solar cycle) change in GISTEMP is 0.36 C per decade.  We will be lucky not to pass 1.5C by 2032.  God bless the folks who AFAIK mostly donate their time to create IPCC reports.  But any report that requires consensus of 1500 scientists and 200 governments is bound to be conservative.  If you think IPCC is alarmist, read https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324528571_What_Lies_Beneath_The_scientific_understatement_of_climate_risks
     

     OK, done preaching to the choir.  Not completely on topic for 2019 melting thread, but obviously related.  The energy that is melting the ASI is relentlessly increasing because of our choices.  Being aware means being alarmed, and better yet activated in pursuing solutions that are already available. 

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 03, 2019, 02:30:28 AM »
You know, if the world is ending due to impending BOE and all, I guess one positive would be that all the grammar nazis will also be dead.  8)

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