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Messages - Tealight

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Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: July 19, 2019, 06:55:33 PM »
A68-A is (slowly) escaping from the clutches of Robertson Island [blue-highlighted blob on the left in new image] in the dark of night.  July 3 image from above; July 16 image from PolarView.  Rotation during these two weeks is about 10º - pretty fast! Near Robertson Island, A68-A slid southwestwards a bit.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 05:33:26 AM »

after a few days a strong easterly may develop .. if it is from south of east .. then the end of May is not impossible unfortunately .. ( not talking @ our prime minister who is determined to limp into June :) ) b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 21, 2019, 11:08:00 AM »
Apologies for commenting on the above off-topic discussion, Neven, but imho important to clear up the false information on this thread that melt-out of the Vavilov ice cap would allegedly add 1 foot to sea level = 305 mm.

The volume of the Vavilov ice cap is 570 km^3
Ref. Massive destabilization of an Arctic ice cap, Michael J. Willis et al, Earth and Planetary Science Letters Volume 502, 15 November 2018, Pages 146-155
[This appears to be the study causing all the alarm.]

Total area of the Earth's Oceans is 360 million km^2
The density of ice is ~0.92 of the density of water.

So sea level rise if the Vavilov ice cap melted out entirely = 0.92 x 5.7e2 km^3 / 3.6e8 km^2
= 1.5e-6 km
= 1.5 mm.

So the sea level rise would be 1.5 mm.

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: May 14, 2019, 05:22:03 PM »
Underwater Arctic Forests Are Expanding With Rapid Warming

Today, climate change is altering marine habitats such as kelp forests on a global scale. In western Australia, eastern Canada, southern Europe, northern California and eastern United States, kelps are disappearing due to warming temperatures. In other areas, kelps are being heavily over-grazed by sea urchins. Coastal conditions in the Arctic are changing dramatically and the region is warming faster than the rest of the world, but these changes could actually be good for kelp.

Kelp forests have been observed throughout the Arctic by Inuit, researchers and polar explorers. The Canadian Arctic alone represents 10 per cent of the world's coastlines, but we know little of the hidden kelp forests there.

Arctic Kelp

Kelps have adapted to the severe conditions. These cool water species have special strategies to survive freezing temperatures and long periods of darkness, and even grow under sea ice. In regions with cold, nutrient-rich water, they can attain some of the highest rates of primary production of any natural ecosystem on Earth.

Arctic kelp forests provide a key example of the diverse responses to climate change. Predictive models and experiments suggest that Arctic coasts are in line to become one of the most impacted environments in the world under changing climate. Yet the possible expansion of kelp forests should provide new habitats for fish and other marine organisms, and enhance a suite of valuable ecosystem services along Arctic coastlines.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: May 05, 2019, 10:11:24 PM »
So Nico Sun gets the medal. Will Tealight get upset ?
Will they send rude letters to the science journals about each other?

And by the way, now the regional Arctic models are up and running, with the key separating out of the high Arctic seas, will he or him or they enter the lists on foreasting the Arctic sea ice minimum?

Tealight, you derive AWP using sea ice area and then use this as a basis to calculate the energy available to reduce sea ice thickness ? How do you translate reduced thickness into resulting sea ice area and extent? A sea might have remaining ice piled up in one area  or spread out giving a higher extent value due to varying winds and currents?

Ps: An impressive piece of work. What with the work on glaciers as well - stunning.
Tealight and Nico Sun are the same person...

Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: May 05, 2019, 08:55:52 PM »
Well done Tealight/Nico!

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 29, 2019, 08:12:07 PM »
Six days later, and now the development can be even seen on this short time interval. Things are speeding up.

Higher resolution -> need a click to start the animation.

EDIT: subscript showed "Sentinel 2", it is "Sentinel 1" of course

Chicago recorded 2 inches of snow from the storm. I live 6 miles from Ohare and this is a photo from my balcony...a beautiful spring morning.

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: April 24, 2019, 06:33:43 AM »
Thank you for these, Tealight! Shared the the PIG bedrock image on FB linking to your site.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: April 07, 2019, 10:21:08 PM »
Weeks of cloudiness in Thwaites area. With Sentinel and EOSDIS - no chance of evaluation what is going on there.
Today the western edge of iceberg B-22-A is visible and I calculated its WNW movement between Feb 4 and Apr 7. It has moved around 3-4 km since then which is in my opinion a sign that it has melted a little bit from below and has lost some of its pinning points.

Greenland's Jakobshavn Glacier Reacts to Changing Ocean Temperatures

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: February 21, 2019, 02:58:45 PM »

In under 16 hours another chunk came off iceberg A68a

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2018, 07:24:58 AM »
With snowcover at all-time highs for this time of year across North America, an extremely early refreeze of HB appears very likely.
HB starts normal freezing in the last third of October, but an early start of the refreeze is still possible in the next two weeks. How likely - not sure. Extremely early - IMHO no.

Officially have decent amount of second year ice that will survive in Foxe Basin. Refreeze now underway and should be mostly done in 10-14 days IMO. Very early / at that time the NRN reaches of HB should also begin to freeze.

Wonder if we officially see multi-year ice classified this time in 2019?

According to the quite reliable UH AMSR2 3.125 data, the ice area in HB has been hovering at less than 100km2 in the last few days, very similar to the data in previous years. Is this a decent amount of soon-to-be second year ice? IMHO no.
Looking at the two orange locations in Worldview, with all due respect to the Canadian Ice Service I believe the ice they are referring to as having survived to be 2nd year is mostly not there, barring some few tendrils (except in the Fury and Hecla Strait fed by the CAA).

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