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Messages - marcel_g

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:20:16 AM »
Its very unlikely that 2019 will finish below 2012 in extent.

I would give it a 1 percent chance.

AMSR2 SCANS USING THE 36GHZ AND 18GHZ wavelength shows the whole of the ice pack left regardless of concentration is to thick.

There is just not enough energy coming in from the sun to support melting the ice North of 80 at the level needed to beat 2012. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 09:23:13 AM »
Weather forecast for the next 4 days.
This is so cool... :D
Thanks PETM!
I ended it with the smiley face that's still in the forecast... ;)

It looks like the southern part of the CAA will melt out, and the state of the Eurasian side of the ice + forecast suggests significant losses on the way.

How much of the northern CAA will hold out?

Will this wind finally drive the ice off of the Atlantic Islands where they've held on stubbornly all season? And will that result in any retreat of the ice along the Atlantic side where positive concentration anomalies are high?

Will the Beaufort be able to swallow all of the ice being pushed into its waters?

Any crystal ball owners out there?
We are now past the peak of insolation, and the remaining ice is for the most part above latitudes that will receive significant insolation between now as the equinox.

Heat blowing in from the continents will have a minimal effect, as it isn't accompanied by significant insolation or long-wave radiation.

All hinges now on bottom melt, and to a certain degree, on how much heat is pulled from depth by wind.

I think a 2nd place finish is pretty close to being "in the bag".  I'm doubtful that we will pass 2012 - *UNLESS* the melt season continues into late September, driven by bottom melt.

Unfortunately, that store of heat - what's already in the water - is an aspect of the Arctic we probably have the least information on.  We can only wait and see what transpires.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 14, 2019, 02:03:10 PM »
As it is 31 days, one month to the 10 year average minimum date**, here are some extras.

ARC5:- The plume of projection from remaining extent loss of the last 10 years, all below 4 million km2..

ARC6:- Table showing that if extent loss stopped now, 2019 would be 11th lowest since 1979.

ARC8:- Table of daily extent losses from now to minimum in selected years (for those who like numbers)

ARC7:- 365 trailing daily average - that could be at a record lows again in early 2020.

** The minimum will be on 13th September. I have said it, and so it is thus.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:20:53 AM »
Ascat with NSIDC ice age overlaid at 20% transparent, mar21-aug12. Not the cleanest animation but here attempting to highlight Oren's comment about first year ice upthread.
The ice age product is weekly and has been duplicated so that the dates should match (edit: except for this week). When this week's ice age map is released I'll try an overlay with amsr2 which should be cleaner.
ice age colours are altered slightly by the transparency
If anyone should study just one animation this season, let it be this one by uniquorn. The ice age correlates well with Ascat, and is distributed in a very lopsided manner around the Arctic.
It's mid-August and the season is getting long in the tooth, but I think the ice "above" the Pole is still vulnerable, being First Year Ice, and quite rubbly. It's hard to know how much top and bottom melt has already occurred, but some of this ice could be nearing a threshold. We will know soon enough.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 10:34:09 PM »
I've been somewhat hesitant to post about the weather forecast, but this week's forecast is too interesting to ignore. For about a week now, the models have been predicting a big surface high over the East Siberian sea, with surface low pressure around the Atlantic ice front/Barents and moderately low pressure as well around the eastern Alaskan coast toward the Beaufort sea. For example compare today's ECMWF initialization shown below with that of seven days ago, and you can see that last week's forecast for today verified quite closely:

What is interesting to me is that the op EC model keeps today's pattern roughly in place for the next week. The GFS and Canadian also support that idea, with the ESS high arcing gradually toward the Alaskan coast and the Atlantic side low drifting over the central ice.  Regardless of the nuances, the Siberian coast heat wave and the consistent southerly winds from the Laptev sea area should test Friv's hypothesis.  Friv had suggested up thread that the ESS didn't melt out early enough this year to allow the open water to warm enough that it could really attack the CAB ice late in the season.  That seemed reasonable at the time, but this extended warm period along Siberia, and the extended periods of southerly winds from Asia toward the pole makes it interesting. I wonder if there is still enough sun power to really heat that newly open water along the ESS and Laptev, and if the fetch of southerly wind would be enough to transport some of that warmth toward the central ice over the next week or two?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 09:43:14 PM »
I've been following this forum for many years now, content with a daily intake of the latest data and all the different opinions and views regarding them. As i read an article of the dutch metereological society today, i thought this might interest some of you. I guess this is not the right thread for it but i couldn't find a better place. Please feel free to move it to a more appropriate thread.
According to research by the dutch KNMI and the university of Exeter (published in Nature Climate Change), reduced sea ice extent does not lead to cold continents at moderate latitudes, the so called warm arctic cold continents theory or WACC.
Instead it is a fluctuation in atmosferic circulation wich causes simultaneously the decrease in sea ice and cold waves at lower latitudes (Northern America). They tested the WACC theory by using 2000 years of climate data. They divided winters in two groups: one in which the atmosphere clearly drives sea ice behaviour and another group where sea ice forces atmospheric circulation. It was shown that only the first group results in the WACC pattern and they conclude that a lack of sea ice does not cause cold waves in Northern America. A further model simulation showed that further reduction of arctic sea ice will lead to higher arctic temperatures but not invoke the WACC pattern and thus will not lead to more cold spells at lower latitudes. For the article at the website of the KNMI (in dutch, but there is always Google translate, and with some figures illustrating things) see:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 09:02:44 PM »
They are both wrong.

And back to the point, we are in some control of where the climate heads although we cannot control the details and we are struggling to understand the complex interactions between the ocean, ice and atmosphere. It's shocking to me that the Arctic ocean is so thinly observed given its key role in earth's climate. The few buoys we have making observations of the upper ocean show heat at about 50m that the Mercator model is missing.

Careful observation of individual floes shows that A-Team is correct that the ice does not directly follow wind streamlines, sea surface height gradients or ocean currents. It is affected by all of them, plus it compresses and forms ridges. Below the surface, we have sparse measurements of the movements of water masses. We're still trying to untangle the effects of the GAC in 2012 on the sea ice because we have don't have dense enough data on Arctic ocean heat content changes through the melting season. And "we" includes the sea ice experts who don't do significantly better at predicting September extent than this ragged group of interested observers. For a variety of reasons, but mainly because we can't predict seasonal weather well, the expert's models don't work very well.

Ironic, isn't it that the one thing we do know pretty well, the effects of CO2 on paleoclimate, has been so poorly explained in this melting thread. Geothermal heat has an inconsequential effect on climate.

Solar heat and all the factors that affect the earth's radiation balance control the climate. Greenhouse gases are among the most important controls and CO2 is the key gas over the past billion years. The modern climate is paradoxical because the sun was cooler in the precambrian than it is now. Of course, we know that declining CO2 levels over the past 25 million years led to the onset of the Pleistocene and the ice ages. Those declining CO2 levels we mostly caused by increased rock weathering rates associated with the continental collision of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate.

So while we watch the impacts of unprecedented ocean temperatures in the far north Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and shockingly warm Arctic seas, on Arctic weather and sea ice, two proudly ignorant fools are clogging this thread with arguments that ignore the effects of CO2 on climate. Siberia is literally on fire, thunderstorms are approaching the north pole and the Arctic oscillation has been stuck in hot subsidence mode almost all summer and yet some folks here don't seem to get that rapidly increasing CO2 levels are the primary cause of all of it.

Click image to animate. The heat keeps on coming into the Eurasian side of the Arctic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:31:39 PM »
All very true, but perhaps fit for another thread?

Also true but i think the false information cannot simply let be and then until now nobody could show me a decent way how to correct such an obvious false information so that it won't spread to the general public via PM.

Say the person is wrong and then invite him/her to the appropriate thread.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 06:06:22 PM »

It would be interesting to know how much ice the Barnes Ice Cap lost this yet. It seems to have been under blue sky for most of July and August.

A remnant of the last ice age. It will not survive to see the next.

Next ?

100,000 years from now

We are STILL in an ice age. What we are experiencing is the Earth's climate transitioning from a interglacial to a hothouse state. My guess is it'll take a few million years to switch back to icehouse. Go on; Prove me wrong.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 12, 2019, 07:54:57 AM »
Great stuff - thanks for sharing!   :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 10:59:13 PM »
October 31 - November 4.
Thanks for the animations. Beaufort ice looks quite solid on amsr2. A bit more fractured on worldview and polarview, oct5th (Amundsen gulf, bottom left)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2018, 02:32:52 AM »
WACC is a pattern of relative warmth and cold in a warming climate. It doesn't mean that the continents are getting colder. WACC happens when the polar vortex is weak and cold air pours out over the continents in the cold months. WACC does not apply to summer.

The major stratospheric warming last February brought on a powerful WACC pattern. Snow hung on very late into spring in New England and really piled up in eastern Canada. Remember the "beast from the east" in Europe. hat was classic WACC related to the break down of the polar vortex.

And, yes, I have piles of firewood that I salvaged from downed trees in my neighborhood. Too many hurricanes. I'm thankful to all the scientists and technicians who go to the Arctic so that I can look at the data while sitting by a warm fire at home.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2018, 02:43:06 PM »
El Cid is quite right. An enormous dome of heat was lifted into the Arctic from the central Pacific by a breaking wave in the jet stream. This year exceptional heat in the north Pacific is amplifying blocking highs. What happens in the far north Pacific and Atlantic oceans frequently ends up in the Arctic. Over the past 3 winters heat advected from the Atlantic and Pacific has kept Arctic fall and winter temperatures much above normal. Clearly, the heat that has been transported by ocean currents into the Barents and Chukchi seas also warms the arctic.

The major stratospheric warming last February was the most obvious factor in last year's cold spring. It increased the snowfall in eastern North America and western Europe.

Obviously, more open water in the Arctic in the dark months increases potential heat loss, but it is just one factor. The import of atmospheric water vapor from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans decreases radiative heat loss. Storms and clouds decrease heat loss. If ice free areas in the Arctic are cloudy and stormy, less heat will radiate to space.

Strong winds tend to increase ocean mixing. Large waves also increase mixing and heat transfer to the atmosphere and they can pulverize sea ice.

We're dealing with a complex system in the Arctic. Attempts to oversimplify the complexity lead to misunderstandings.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2018, 10:59:13 AM »
October 1-5.
It's amazing. We are into October and the inner basin refuses to seriously freeze anywhere. The only growth is occurring in the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort export terminals. The only real freezing is occurring in the sheltered CAA. Hopefully this will soon be over, but it's still disturbing.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2018, 10:40:18 AM »
This unusual Spike has to be something rapid, not just Heat from the Arctic Ocean+ Transport from Subtropics.

But it WAS heat imported from the midlatitudes. We knew a few days ago that this was going to happen, no surprises here. Just look at the pic from Oct 4, the huge warmth incursion circled in red explains everything.
We also know from the forecasts that it is over, so 80N temps will probably cool pretty fast the next few days

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 27, 2018, 09:36:34 PM »
Frigging outstanding video to end the season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 27, 2018, 07:50:07 PM »
NSIDC Calls It: 2018 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent Tied for Sixth Lowest on Record

Arctic sea ice likely reached its 2018 lowest extent on Sept. 19 and again on Sept. 23, according to NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. Analysis of satellite data by NSIDC and NASA showed that, at 1.77 million square miles (4.59 million square kilometers), 2018 effectively tied with 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest summertime minimum extent in the satellite record.

"This year's minimum is relatively high compared to the record low extent we saw in 2012, but it is still low compared to what it used to be in the 1970s, 1980s and even the 1990s," said Claire Parkinson, a climate change senior scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

Parkinson and her colleague Nick DiGirolamo calculated that, since the late 1970s, the Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk on average about 21,000 square miles (54,000 square kilometers) with each passing year. That is equivalent to losing a chunk of sea ice the size of Maryland and New Jersey combined every year for the past four decades.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2018, 11:50:25 PM »
Re BOE and the central ice, I think of it as some kind of negative feedback. The hardest ice to melt also has  the earliest probable refreeze date. So a year like 2016, which made the deepest inroads into this arctic heartland, also has an early minimum which possibly prevented a new area record. While years like 2012 and this year had a late minimum but did not threaten this heartland.
I think the extra factor that will defeat this defense is strong ice movement. Should some kind of dipole settle on the Arctic and push the thick ice continuously to the Fram or the Atlantic front, coupled with the right weather and some kind of August GAC it could produce a BOE before the early refreeze strikes back.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: September 15, 2018, 03:29:23 PM »
Icesat-2 launched this morning, a video of the launch can be seen on NASA TV.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2018, 11:41:19 PM »
I am moving my thoughts on this to "When Will The Arctic Go Ice Free" after this posting, apart from occasional posts on sea ice vs. open water as at the current date.


After some false starts, and with some help from comments received, herewith the first graphs of "a new metric that belongs to me".

First, the definition and calculation methodology.

Basis of The Chosen Measure
Sea Ice Area is the measure that best shows for each of the 14 Arctic Seas (and the Arctic Ocean in total) the amount of the ocean covered by ice. It is that measure as a proportion of the total area of the ocean that indicates the balance between a maritime or sea-ice climate environment. So the total area of each sea is the measure against which sea ice area is to be measured.

Calculating the measure of “Atlantification” or “Pacification”? (or in general the trend to a maritime sea environment).

This is the simplest part.
1.    Average Daily Ice Area for each year = Sum of the area for the 365 days of the year and  divide by 365
2.   Divide by the area of the sea to give the proportion of sea covered by ice during the year.
3.   Then Open Water Percentage is 1 minus the proportion of sea covered by ice during the year expressed as a percentage.
This has also been done for
- March, when sea ice is at the maximum,
- September, when sea ice is at the minimum,
- The year to date, to justify posting onto the Extent and Area Data on the current thread.

Example Results 1979 to 2018 ( 4 graphs attached)

The Total Arctic graph is much as expected, gradual increases in open water in summer, winter and the total calendar year. This disguises great differences in individual seas. To note is that in September the proportion of open water has risen from 60% to 80%. Suddenly a BOE looks a bit closer.

The Baffin Sea, although a  peripheral sea, shows no trend to melt.

For the Central Arctic Sea (by far the largest) it is a story of losing ice in summer.

For the Barents Sea, our poster child for Atlantification, the loss of winter ice is dramatic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 05, 2018, 02:07:53 AM »
What's important is the slow but increasing northward push of warm, salty Atlantic water into the subarctic seas and the Eurasian side of the Arctic ocean. Increased release of ocean heat in the dark and dim months through the thin-ice covered Arctic is important. The increase in advection of warm humid air into the Arctic from the Atlantic and Pacific basins is important. The lengthening of fall and the shortening of winter is important. Increasingly vigorous stratospheric warmings are important.

Arguments about how fast a trend is established are academic. They have value in debunking crap like "the Hiatus". However, they are quite irrelevant to the developing ecological and human catastrophes that are being caused by the warming climate and declining sea ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 05, 2018, 02:02:37 AM »
If anyone doesn't like the title of the thread

I thought it was very well done, but I've come to expect content titles to be useful instead of extremely accurate. 

You go from a study title of "Warming of the interior Arctic Ocean linked to sea ice
losses at the basin margins"

to a science mag title of "'Archived' heat has reached deep into the Arctic interior, researchers say"

and nobody shows any interest in any of that, and the discussions never begin, and scientists remain safely silo'd and strictly literal, and 20 years goes by and scientists are blaming themselves for not properly communicating the accelerating demise of global habitability

maybe it's not the job of scientists to communicate climate change science into mitigation & adaptation policy

I'd like to apologize to any scientists who would risk their career by sharing space with someone who talks loose about arctic sea ice, and I thank you for teaching.  I'm not here to argue my darling theories.  I am not married to my suspicions..  I just don't know how to expect the arctic to refreeze after a few BOE in late summer.  How do you propose the cold upper halocline layer of the Arctic will be maintained, after weeks and months of no ice cover?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 05, 2018, 12:41:49 AM »
if is see this correctly the title of this thread contains "year-round"

we're supposed to be talking about this paper:

"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said. "Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

Well, for a long time people have been talking about how that halocline cold water lens in the arctic could be mixed with warmer atlantic/pacific water layers below.  waves at the surface are a big factor.  however briefly the arctic is ice-free, we can demonstrate that it'll have more waves than it did with sea ice.

also, the latent heat of fusion of ice should play a large role.  I don't want to get my numbers mixed up, but it takes a lot more heat to raise the temperature of water 1 degree C through the melting point than it takes to raise water 1 degree C above the melting point?

and finally, of course, albedo goes from (very roughly) reflecting 80% of heat to absorbing 80% of heat.

there are quite a few reasons why the first loss of sea ice in the arctic could hypothetically mean drastic changes for the arctic, the earth's pattern of climate, and I think many people expect the first blue ocean event to be a step change in global climate...

Nobody really has any clue what's going to happen, but paleo-climatology would suggest this system has an ability to transition quickly and grow cycads in the arctic circles.  So, let's not pretend to be foolish and act like the ice age climate will be happily circulating heat in the same ways when the atmosphere has a hothouse quantity of greenhouse gas.

Nobody has modeled abrupt climate change to give us any idea what it looks like.  that's probably why reports such as the one being discussed in this thread are rather interesting... and it is extremely alarming, but it's hard to see it as particularly unlikely.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 01, 2018, 09:56:28 PM »
From the very first post in this thread, way back in March:

Personally, I think we will end up somewhere around 4,5 Mn km2 by the middle of September.

FWIW, it's now September and the current projected JAXA minimum (rounded to one decimal place) is in fact 4.5 million km2.  Not bad!

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 29, 2018, 12:32:39 AM »
The hazards of research near the pole.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 28, 2018, 10:38:55 PM »
Air and Ocean Temps.

Air first 2 images
Air Temps North of 80 are getting colder quickly . Area north of 80 is a small fraction of the total Arctic. The Arctic is getting colder but temps are on average around 1 to 1.5 degrees celsius above average with large variations across the Arctic.

Sea Images 3 and 4
SST anomalies have risen sharply in the Arctic. Image 3 is 27 August ; cf Image 4 - 16 July.

So we have the classic end of season contrast - will wind, waves, and currents cause bottom melt to be greater than surface freeze for some time to come.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 22, 2018, 06:16:31 PM »
The DMI 80N shows that the polar melt season has gone into overtime. And it isn't solar radiation doing it because the sun angle is too low. It's warm, humid, cloudy air advecting from the open water where the Arctic ocean is "Atlantifying".

The climate denier video posted above in response to my comment was pernicious because it launched a duplicitous attack on science. There's no doubt that in areas of industry funded science that there's corruption of the scientific method (e.g. negative or harmful results found in drug studies) but the denier's suggestion that all of climate science is tainted by the funding process and group think is a vile lie. Evidence well displayed on blogs such as Skeptical Science and by Snow White here have demonstrated that it is the deniers who have been corrupted by the money of big oil, gas and coal.

Back on topic, there's a surprising amount of very thin, dispersed, mushy ice still being blown about by wind and storms over summer season warmed water. There's still the potential for a large amount of melt into mid September in this situation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:51:23 AM »
To A Team and all the other posters who give so generously of your knowledge and expertise:  I am a non-scientist who truly appreciates this forum.  For what it's worth, this is a great resource for people who want to learn even though we've never published a paper and never will.  I am sorry that those who would plagiarize and steal are discouraging free discussion.  Thank you, A Team.  Thank you, Neven.  Thank you to all of you.  Jessica

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 21, 2018, 04:57:58 PM »
I am more concerned about plagiarism of our site by scientists. Naturally, people trolling earlier about sunspots (#2 on the Skeptical Science nonsense thermometer) is a total turn-off. However this event was noticed here 3 full weeks prior to the Guardian article and has undergone huge technical development on multiple high-visitation forums.

This is something I have worried about. I'm an ex-scientist and now make biofuels and I'm heavily involved in policy and regulation; My original thesis was on Isostasy and thermomechanical lithopshere behavior so I still identify as a geologist...

A-Team: I would have thought that the open exchange of cutting edge ideas, particularly some of the brilliant work that many posters do, is always going to be a source for scientists to develop knowledge. I don't think it's a bad thing, even if they don't at least say "Thank you" to the forum for helping seed ideas (or even extensively illustrate them). It's not people picking up the crumbs and threads to develop them that we should worry about, it's correcting misinformation. And, as for you, I would say that you are never going to be short of brilliant ideas for papers to publish. and that your illustration and illuminatingly generous work is invaluable both to us, and, apparently, to the wider scientific community.

And.. If you are one of the people scouring the forum for ideas to publish, please be gracious enough to thank us, if not cite the thread. Back on topic...?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 21, 2018, 01:01:01 PM »
The picture in the article is really just fear-mongering as usual.
Icebergs detach and float around.

"Fear-mongering as usual", huh? "Icebergs detach and float around"? Why, I do detect ideology-based denial in your statements. But you should know that the article quotes a scientist (that is, not a conservative politician or a Big Oil mouthpiece, but an actual scientist who has education and experience and knowledge and everything) who states that the situation is indeed "scary". No disrespect, but I think I'll stick with his thoughts on the matter.

At any rate, the article states this about the current melt season:

The latest readings by the Norwegian Ice Service show that Arctic ice cover in the Svalbard area this week is 40% below the average for this time of year since 1981. In the past month, at least 14 days in the past month have hit record lows in this region. Although thinner ice elsewhere in the Arctic means this is unlikely to be a record low year overall, they are in line with predictions that there will be no summer ice in the Arctic Ocean at some point between 2030 and 2050.

Dismiss that by muttering "Icebergs detach and float around" if you wish, but don't expect a lot of agreement here in this reality-based forum. Anyone who's been watching can't help but agree that it is scary in every sense of the word.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 21, 2018, 12:18:27 PM »
Is it strange that Northern greenland has water above it?
Yes, long-lasting backwash events in the Fram Strait are almost never seen; extensive commentary on the surprising Feb 12th incident can be found in the freeze season forum. The warm water injection event of August 3rd apparently swept a warm West Greenland Current eddy about Molloy Deep across the normally southbound but now dormant East Greenland Current, injecting a volumetrically substantial pulse of warm Atlantic Waters over the shallow shelf above north Greenland.

Whatever the ultimate underlying cause, the event continues to slowly develop along a thousand kilometers of coast as of the August 20th. The first animation, an overlay of OSI-SAF ice motion vectors on UH AMSR2 sea ice concentration, shows that this is not a lift-off event (overall icepack rotation or bulk movement) relative to north Greenland and the CAA coastline. (Lift-offs and long fracture propagation are common in winter, attributable to fixed island constraints on CCW icepack rotation under anti-cyclonic weather patterns.)

The second shows a possibly related development farther west: ongoing partition of the main CAB  in the vicinity of Prince Patrick and Banks Island, with the separating ice melting out as they round Banks Island in the very warm waters of Amundsen Gulf.

This pocket of the Beaufort Sea commonly develops floe motions seemingly independent of the larger ice pack. In six of the last eight years, long stringers of thick ice originating above Prince Patrick have swung up the Alaskan coast for months, this year reaching the Chukchi before turning sharply north.

What is unusual here is to see the ice heading up the Amundsen; for most of the fall and winter it steadily injected newly formed ice in the opposite direction, westward in the Beaufort to the south of the developing stringer.

Up-forum, several people have proposed that Beaufort Gyre waters are flushing out to Baffin Bay; the Amundsen is the upper end of a lesser Northwest Passage and so southbound currents there (and in M'Clure Strait) could explain observed ice transport.

Arctic Ocean inflows have to balance outflows or sea level would have to rise or fall; that's not physically sustainable given multiple connections to the global ocean. Normally the EGC is the principal route for outflows.

Tech note: scientist T Lavergne, whose twitter site was quoted in the excellent Guardian article, authored the AI algorithms used to make the ice motion vectors hosted by OSI-SAF today. Like UH AMSR2, the graphic files are not properly formatted as netCDF Geo2D so I could not make a clean overlay in Panoply; the vectors had to be lifted off the background in Gimp, a difficult exercise in discovery since the graphics are deeply dithered.

DTU's gif in the Guardian article by L Toudal runs from July 27th to August 13th. It combines Sentinel1 radar and AMSR2, with the innovation being Sentinel1 1-day ice drift vectors (Lavergne's are two-day). The graphic is not visually effective however and it works better to enhance off the  3.125 UH AMSR2.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« on: August 11, 2018, 01:49:42 PM »
How come there is not a PIOMAS Volume poll as in the JAXA and NSIDC extent polls. After all volume is what will matter most in the end, n'est-ce pas ?

Non. The major effect on heat transfer is whether or not there is ice coverage, not how thick it is. The major way the Arctic influences the rest of the world's climate is in the heat transfers.

Volume is a measure of how long ice coverage can survive an energy imbalance so it has some predictive value for when area will go, but the important factor for general influence on climate is the area.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2018, 02:51:36 PM »
Me, too with lots of greetings from the Netherlands at minus 18 feet and 30+C  :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2018, 02:04:28 PM »
The relative cliff continues... JAXA extent lost 1.863 M km2 in 17 days, quite extreme for the period.

I'll take this opportunity to thank again Juan C. Garcia and gerontocrat for your updates on this most important matter. I am sure I am not the only addict.

Edit reason: adding the total loss.

You are not. I come here every single day. I may not post comments daily but I am reading the comments of others.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 31, 2018, 11:20:47 AM »
Adding today's false colour ice concentration map from U. Bremen, now 7 consecutive daily maps spanning 6 days and ending at 2018-07-30.

Click to animate...

Thanks for the animation, but please try to make it a bit smaller, 13.5 MB is too much. I know those CO2-spewing servers are on anyway, but there comes a point where we have to stop building more.

Back on topic. There I was on my blog talking about how we might see some detachment soon, and here it is already (oh nice, my attachment is called detachment  ;) ):

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 18, 2018, 04:43:55 PM »
Can anyone explain me how it is possibble that the past 3 winters were the warmest "ever" in the Arctic and yet summers are not much to talk about. Where does the extra heat from winter go? Why does it not show up in big extent losses later on?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean Changes
« on: July 16, 2018, 04:15:09 PM »
Thanks for this.
Having read several papers on the global fishing industry I am watching how this affects the plankton-zooplankton relationship. The real core issue of climate change is not temperatures and severe weather. It's what the bottom of the food chain does in response to the evolving chemical ratios in the air, water and soil.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 15, 2018, 09:32:36 PM »
I think the recent heat in this forum is the result that it was one of the first places where people come together to discover the possibility that the Arctic Ocean could become ice free very soon. Then, when the weather and fluctuations have deferred that ultimate but possible outcome from realising, people have become disappointed as too little, or too slowly things are happening. Rest assured, when that sad day sooner or later comes, there is little to nothing to celebrate, despite shortened shipping lanes to Asia. In the mean time, let's keep our forum civilised and avoid accusations or conspiracy claims.  :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 04:01:26 PM »
And just to be clear:

It is preposterous to me how people on this forum claim to believe in climate change etc but if you point out what is happening it is "omg enough of that be quiet this is a sea ice forum" as if the current situation had nothing to do with abrupt climate change. Perhaps this is why the liberals have no solution to the problem, they are even more ignorant than the conservatives who at least pretend it isn't happening in order to justify their stupidity.

If you make extraordinary claims, and have a history of doing so, you have absolutely no right to whine when people call you out on them. This is the fate of the Galileo (and of Bozo the clown, Carl Sagan would add).

I'm fine with the extraordinary claims, especially if you post maps and graphs to make your argument, but keep the barks to yourself.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 30, 2018, 03:04:44 AM »
Thanks, Ned W for your insight and expertise on the satellite issue. I am aware of the arguments for smaller and cheaper satellites. I am aware of the limitations of this series of military satellites. I am aware these satellites weren't developed to monitor sea ice.

I am also aware of other uses you didn't mention. This series of satellites was very useful for hurricane forecasting. The microwave imager sees through the high cloud overcast into the developing eyes of hurricanes. I have personally used information derived from these satellites by CIMSS to predict rapid intensification of hurricanes successfully. The NHC and JTWC use the derived data on a regular basis for hurricanes with eyes that can only be seen by microwave sensing.

I didn't come up with the theory that this was malicious destruction based on internet rumor, fake news, or misinterpretation. I read the transcript of the congressional meeting with the DoD representative. That particular congressman viciously attacked the DoD spokesman. He has a record of attacking climate science. He led the charge to destroy the DMSP satellite. He was angry that the NSIDC made a case for keeping it to monitor sea ice decline.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 30, 2018, 12:00:19 AM »
Republicans in the U.S. congress ordered the already built follow on satellite destroyed to intentionally blind us in the Arctic and berated the U.S. military for building and storing the satellite. What those people have done on climate is a crime against future generations. Of course, U.S. law allows crimes against future generations, so no one can be punished.

It's as if they put sticks in our eyes and blinded us because they didn't like what we were seeing.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 09:15:18 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

Would be good news. The Arctic and all of us need a break.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 16, 2018, 12:17:10 AM »
What  a "blue-ocean" event would look like?  some possibility this 2018 melting season. Does it look like  any of these?
No. The key items to consider are the 2007 and 2012 ice age youtubes. They have been posted here dozens of times. Many people here are overly focused strictly on thermodynamics and single-point summaries of the entire Arctic Ocean, such as a number for area without regards to how that area is distributed. However that distribution is critical to end-of-season.

In those record years (and most others), while thermodynamics plays a decisive role in setting the stage, when extent gets low, winds become the decisive agent via both dispersion of ice to scattered more vulnerable floes, rapid advection to places where the ocean surface water is too warm, and out-of-basin export.

This results in a September picture resembling a comma ","rotated 180º CWwith its tail in the Chukchi and ESS. As with 2018, the lower CAA is the source of this residual ice which was initially about the oldest and thickest left.

Given enough weeks of a quasi-stationary high centered off the Beaufort with an associated westward wind along the Alaskan coast but not a return gyre (a frequent pattern this spring), another 2007 will develop, in conjunction with strong FJL-SV and Fram export.

However pack strength and ice thickness are drastically reduced today relative to 2007 whereas surface water is warmer and freeze-up much later. There's no requirement for another GAC black gray swan event though one would certainly contribute.


The whole question of 'first blue ocean' is ill-posed to begin with. It just kicks the climate change can  down the road. We should be talking about the knock-on effects of the partially blue ocean  already the current reality. No significant effects at 25% ... 50% ... 75% blue ocean?

For example, the Chukchi Sea has open water 11.5 months of the year now. Surely that is way past 'seasonally ice-free'. Who here can remember a meaningful winter ice cover of the Barents Sea? It is actually part of the officially defined Arctic Ocean but now gets thrown in with the Greenland Sea or even North Atlantic. 

The discussion on some forums reminds me of one soccer team moving their goal post into the grandstands and even out to the street but the other team somehow not noticing and still playing up to the newly contrived set-up. They'll never score a blue ocean goal because the goal post will then be moved to "twelve months for five consecutive years". After that, thirty years of stats needed to rule out "natural variation". Then more decades to rule out cycles.

Meanwhile we're already in big trouble now from Arctic amplification, with more of it baked in. Whatever the full effects of an altogether missing 'planetary refrigerator' might be, the partial effects of a diminished planetary refrigerator are already upon us. And that's just the albedo part ... there are many other adverse considerations in the literature.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 07:09:30 PM »
The exact details of the metrics are not important unless you are in a boat trying to avoid sea ice. What's important is how the ocean/ice/atmosphere/biosphere system is changing as GHGs add planetary heat. We are arguing over fine details about sea ice extent that are insignificant to the big picture. The amazing Greenland vortex we have seen this late spring is a very anomalous feature which our discussion is ignoring while we argue over details about extent and area that will be wiped out in a few weeks time.

The 90 pattern of winds and currents has been very efficiently transporting cold water into the Labrador sea, followed by deep convection as it mixes with warm Gulf stream water. This weather/current pattern is speeding up the rate of transport of Gulf Stream water across the temperate north Atlantic then up the coast of Norway. There has been a stunning anomalous amount of northwards heat transport in the north Atlantic over the past 90 days that will affect the Arctic for many months.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 03:38:43 AM »
I just watched Paul's first viedo.  Do recognize his "2020 or sooner" forecast of less than 1,000,000 sq. km. of Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) ("ice free") is his guess. 

He discounted the Gompertz curve showing ice free in 2025 (+/-), saying there was nothing that could cause that curve.  However, much discussion on the threads of this forum (ASI blog = ASIB) this winter was about how much snow may have been falling on the ice due to the extra water vapor in the air and what consequences this would have, and we've been watching winter storms drop snow (because it is cold).  (Historically, it is understood that not much snow fell over the 'desert' Arctic Ocean.)  Fresh snow has a very high albedo (reflects 95% of solar radiation) so might delay ice melt once the sun rises.  Thick snow may 'hide' melt ponds delaying their absorbing most of the solar radiation.  These would be positive feedbacks (positive here being 'good for the ice').   But snow may have negative feedbacks as well:  clouds (especially low clouds) in the winter will reduce heat loss to space (Paul showed how recent winters have been rather warmer than it used to be).  Snow is a great insulator, so if it falls on the ice when ice is thin, it would cause less ice to grow during the winter.  Countering this, if there is lots of snow on thin ice, the ice will be weighed down and sea water will mix with the bottom snow and freeze...  Anyway, you can see that trying to figure out the consequences of a new phenomenon in the Arctic (snow) is not straight forward, but that there are both positive and negative consequences for the ice. 

Chris Reynolds used to post 'really good stuff' in this forum.  One of the things he kept bringing to our attention were positive feedbacks that we hadn't recognized.  Thinking about Paul's video, he showed a graph that showed how third, fourth and fifth year ice was a smaller percentage of the ASI coverage in recent years than it used to be.  He did not point out that the 'thinning' of these curves sort of stopped a few years ago.  (Is this chance? Or is is due to Arctic realities [a positive feedback] we don't yet understand?) 

Even as the average person on these threads is rather pessimistic about the survival of summertime ASI, only a handful think 'ice free'dom will arrive this year or next. Nonetheless, a first 'blue ocean event' in 2025 or 2050 (as some of Wipneus's graphs project) is not good news for humanity!  I'm among the more pessimistic here, and I thought, back in 2012, an ice free Arctic would happen by 2019. Although I think it could happen next year, I won't be surprised if it doesn't happened in seven.

Just one more watcher, educated in earth sciences, but a neophyte when it comes to most aspects of ASI.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 01:47:28 AM »
Welcome, Reverend.  I will attempt a summary, at the certain risk of exposing my ignorance to my far more knowledgeable peers on this forum.  Below is an NSIDC map of the Arctic.  You should get familiar the names of the seas and adjacent land masses... you are going to need them. If you really want to learn, get stuck into this forum -- the participants are knowledgeable, principled, open and generously tolerant of newbies like myself.  Now for the summary (gulp).

The year's melting started with an unusually quick retreat of the ice on the Pacific Side in the Bering Sea, and then into part of the Chukchi Sea.  Ongoing year on year invasion of warmer Atlantic waters has resulted in a substantial and alarming retreat of the ice on the Atlantic side, producing open ocean well to the north of the island of Svalbard. 

Over the past 10-15 days there has been a lot of melting on the Siberian side of the Arctic because it has been so warm and sunny there.  The Laptev Sea in particular has suffered, the north/eastern Kara sea is following suit, and the East Siberian Sea may be next to go.  A fierce and short-lived storm in early June pounded the ice on the Atlantic side.  The overall results of that storm are still unclear. 

There is no particular sign of a catastrophic melt of Arctic ice taking place, but the ice, by almost all measures (volume, extent, area) is lower than any point prior to 2012, and second lowest since 1979 in extent at present.  You can expect the Arctic minimum sea ice extent to go down over the next decade or two, with some considerable year-to-year variations.  When exactly there will be an 'ice-free Arctic' is uncertain, and indeed we would have to define 'ice-free' first.   That is not to say there is little cause for concern -- there is massive cause for concern.  Positive feedback loops may kick in strongly and accelerate the melting processes, and the ongoing loss of the Arctic summer ice has profound implications for our warming world.

Post from a new member that I had to release:

Hello all, this thread has been linked to other forums around the web, can someone here give a layman's explanation of what has been happening over the last 10-15 days? 

Sure doesn't sound good, I am just not up to speed with a lot of these terms.  Is it looking like an ice free Arctic this year?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 01:21:18 AM »
No chance of an ice-free Arctic for at least 20 years.

That is false. There is a very low chance this year, increasing  every year that gets warmer and the weather more extreme. Saying there is no chance it will happen before 2037 is simply not true.

This year the uncertainties are the early opening of the Bering, a thin CAB, no ice North of Svalbard and the ever present warmer planet.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 06:47:53 PM »
As we are getting closer to the solstice it seems, at this moment, more and more likely that the the sea ice in ESS, Chukchi, Laptev, Barents and Kara Sea will take a major damage this season. OTOH, it looks like the sea ice in Beaufort, CAA and the adjacent areas north of Greenland will be spared this season.

This idea is based upon the GFS monthly forecast that hints of a more cyclonic weather pattern over the North American side while high pressure will remain in charge over the Siberian side.

Another factor is that the Arctic Oscillation has been mostly in its positive phase since 2013. In fact, the AO index hasn't been below -1 since fall 2015 (you can see the time series from 1950 to present day at ). Sooner or later we'll see more -AO dominate the weather in Arctic but right now I don't see such a switch to come.
Of course, a swing to -AO in July with a high pressure over the North American side would make potentially catastrophic damage to the sea ice as the ice thickness in this area is thinner than normal. Most of us remember the big high pressure in July 2015 that compensated for the lack of melting momentum by June.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 08, 2018, 02:21:55 PM »
Or we are quickly heading to an enormous cliff. Partial melted out areas don't show up that easily on the charts, especially is there is lots of dispersion going on.

Weaker ice is easier dispersed I guess, since it will probably be more mobile. And it doens't matter if the ocean has a lot if ice that is 200cm thick or 20cm thick, it still is 100% ice-covered. Till it goes *poof*.

Which I fear is something we will see happening

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 01, 2018, 02:49:33 PM »
There was no rudeness.

I’ve not been on snow at 85 F, but I have at 80 F (27 C). Some warm front popped up from somewhere and drove a huge amount of heat quite far north of Montreal. Snow isn’t that powerful that it can soak up imported heat quickly. What it can do is prevent heat from building up locally via its albedo effect.

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