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Messages - charles_oil

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 27, 2019, 11:53:43 AM »
The current snow depth in Norilsk, Russia

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 02, 2019, 06:05:30 AM »

LoL, yes, it is set at a level Joe Public would be able to follow.

The BBC charter includes a commitment to  " ...inform, educate..."

E.G the recent nature programmes highlighting plastic waste in the seas being ingested by marine life .

Significantly, many more of the public now realise their small action has a consequence.

< I'm drifting OT, last post on this >

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: October 22, 2019, 09:11:16 AM »
2019 transits have been updated at

Looks like 24 made it this year

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 21, 2019, 04:16:51 PM »

I think its amazing to look at the two lowest on this day - #290 in (2012 / 2019)
NSIDC - 5 day EXTENT. 

The 1981 - 2010 median line is certainly way outside the current ice area!

Looks like there is a first glimmer of ice around the coast lines starting though....

That shown in the Sea of Okhotsk/Bering is due to the lower resolution images, look at the AMSR2 by Wipneus and you'll see it's still zero there.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 11:14:17 PM »
Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (9.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
9.3% should read 39.3% perhaps ?
Many thanks for the regular updates too!
Thanks, Charles.

& here is a thought. If at maximum gain is less than average by 9.3% - we will be stunned.

Glaciers / Re: Alpine Glaciers
« on: October 11, 2019, 11:47:01 PM »
Measuring glacial movements in-situ is a challenging, but necessary task to model glaciers and predict their future evolution. However, installing GPS stations on ice can be dangerous and expensive when not impossible in the presence of large crevasses. In this project, the ASL develops UAVs for dropping and recovering lightweight GPS stations over inaccessible glaciers to record the ice flow motion. This video shows the results of first tests performed at Gorner glacier, Switzerland, in July 2019.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: October 06, 2019, 06:26:09 PM »
A vicious circle indeed. :-/

The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: September 24, 2019, 05:42:28 PM »
I see them 'likes' as imaginary beautiful flowers to give away for free. There's no end to those flowers, they just keep on coming :).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 02, 2019, 09:51:03 AM »
Is there a structural reason for the massive discrepancy of -10k from Juan G and - 73k NSIDC daily from Alphabet Hotel.  i.e one is yesterday vs today? 

In which case can we expect one to "catch up" tomorrow?

Juan's is based on JAXA which is much higher resolution than NSIDC. This will cause them to be somewhat different, even long-term so it's not a necessity that one catches up to the other.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 14, 2019, 12:26:45 AM »
Long time lurker here and the little bit that I would have to offer in way of analysis is to humbly suggest to apply the brakes to the talk of the "catastrophe" (and other superlatives) for what is happening to the Laptev.

Yes, it visually looks bad with all the melt ponding on Worldview and SMOS. Yes, the forecast has been and continues to be rather bad in regards to temperatures, wind and insolation.  However I would encourage everyone to take a good look at Worldview and run it from June 13 to July 13th for 2012.  While some here would argue that for the Laptev the ice is in worse shape than 2012 due to the condition of the fast ice, there is counter argument that perhaps 2012 is worse because of the size of the Laptev bite.

Regardless of where you come down on this argument take a good look at the condition of the fast ice at this time of the year in 2012 and note how much ice was still around near the shore 1 month later.  The point being that it takes a lot of energy and a fair amount of time to melt ice here and a visual scan of the last 10 years indicates that while this year looks bad and the forecasts look bad, there is historical evidence that suggests this ice doesn't just go poof over night.

I'll go back to lurking but just wanted to also say that I appreciate all the insights that you all provide and I really love coming here each day.  I have a bit of geeky joy in my heart when I see that there are a lot of posts to digest over the last 12 to 24 hours (particularly on the melting season thread and the extent thread) especially when it stays on topic.

Cheers and thanks to all.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 26, 2019, 09:23:52 PM »
New member here but been interested in the changing Arctic and in particular melt seasons for many years now and this forum has been a great learning curve that is for sure.

Obviously with high pressure set to come into play even more there is alot of excitement that it could produce ideal melting conditions or at the very least pre conditioning for Later on in the season but I think there has to be some caution on this. Subject to any small scale changes it seems too me for the most part, this will be quite a cool high with no extraordinary 850hpa temps which suggests not alot of heat entering the basin from the landmasses unlike what we had recently in the Beaufort and at the start of the month with that extraordinary dipole.

Also there is this suggestion high pressure means clear blue skies and sunshine which for the most part may be true but the weather is never that simple and what I can see on the outskirts of the centre of the high is little kinks and shallow thicknesses which may suggest a shallow vortexs  and more cloud than it appears

Not sure this is the worst set up for the ice as June 2014 had alot of high pressure in a similar posittion but did not fully mean extent went off the cliff however this May has been much warmer than then so the results could well be different?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 12, 2019, 10:10:35 AM »

Ash and Lightning above an Icelandic volcano.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: March 04, 2019, 09:05:04 PM »
Found on Reddit in r/natureisfuckinglit

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
« on: February 05, 2019, 06:44:45 PM »
Thanks to all that have tried and responded.

The positive feedbacks gives me confidence that I have nailed a big source of the incompatibility. In short: do not create mp4 files with an odd number of rows.

Cropping the image height from 695 to 694 gives the attached "big" animation:

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2018, 05:59:33 AM »

December 30th, 2018:
     12,053,135 km2, an increase of 89,101 km2.

Hello everybody.
Sorry that I have not being here for several days.
I made a trip to Oaxaca (México) and I was supposed to have a good internet connection. Finally it didn't happen and what it is worst, it end up my subscription with Office 365.
I will try to do the work with Google spreadsheets.

Wish me luck...

The rest / Re: Political theatre, good for ratings, otherwise useless
« on: November 14, 2018, 03:32:17 AM »
Seems best to concentrate all the political guff in a (hopefully very) few threads - I'd certainly rather read the informed comments on sea ice and the significant associated environmental ramifications on the forum than see too many, often emotional / personal political discussions. 

The Trump circus is so noisy and disruptive that its hard to keep watching the Ice melt !

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: November 13, 2018, 06:53:18 PM »
Not really humorous
Iceland Christmas ad: Petition to show it on TV hits 670k

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic images
« on: October 25, 2018, 02:58:36 AM »
  That was weird, wasn't it!   The near-linear edges of large icebergs are largely associated with joint patterns associated with the shelf's stresses pre-iceberg-separation. 

Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: October 06, 2018, 12:25:00 AM »
Reposted from Artic Cafe thread

Test your knowledge of the Arctic seas, basins and shelfs in this 100 piece puzzle i made of a map Uniquorn posted.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 25, 2018, 07:08:01 PM »
This long-time lurker wants to say thank you to all the contributors here! I've been visiting this site almost daily for 3 years now. Surely will return tomorrow. :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 22, 2018, 08:08:49 AM »
Aluminium - what do the different lines lines etc represent ?  I cant see a key to the graphs.  Thanks
My mistake. I am too used to these graphs. Message was modified.

September 17-21.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 14, 2018, 10:00:15 AM »
JAXA EXTENT 17,523,844 km2(September 13, 2018)

I really do think we are looking at an event out of the ordinary

The Antarctic continues to demonstrate its unpredictability - not so much end of season wobbles, more a continuing trend down instead of end of season up.  Extent is 504 k (2.9 %) below 2017, and 1.224 k (7.0%) below the 2010's average, and another record low extent for the day (8 days in a row).

A maximum of 17.67 million km2 - a record low by 390 k km2, is the result from average extent gain with just 3 days on average to the maximum. Range of outcomes over the last 10 years from remaining melt is in the range of 17.78 to 17.98 million km2. This maximum result would be lowest.  i.e. a second year of record low Antarctic sea ice extent is very likely.

On 26 August ice extent was 17.78 million, and has not risen above that in the 17 days following. This is unusual (unique?) for this time of year. As each day passes it is more possible that this is the new record low maximum at a new record early date.
Antarctic Sea Ice is often dismissed of little importance in the grand scheme of things. The following is a quote from the June 2018 sea ice analysis from NSIDC.

Antarctica’s sea ice and ice shelf disintegration[/b]
.... sea ice—a component of the cryosphere that is very sensitive to changing climate and ocean—has an important protective effect on the Antarctic ice sheet.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 30, 2018, 02:04:39 AM »
finally i thought that i have to post some nice images from the arctic to at least stay a bit on topic LOL

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 22, 2018, 01:51:23 AM »
To A Team and all the other posters who give so generously of your knowledge and expertise:  I am a non-scientist who truly appreciates this forum.  For what it's worth, this is a great resource for people who want to learn even though we've never published a paper and never will.  I am sorry that those who would plagiarize and steal are discouraging free discussion.  Thank you, A Team.  Thank you, Neven.  Thank you to all of you.  Jessica

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 16, 2018, 12:24:29 AM »
Folks, does this helps?
Great, Ivica!
I recommend to read the original article:

Maybe a break in the data is good... We already know what's happening, easily see the effects and might finally have time to GO DO something about it!

I completely agree with you!  :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 15, 2018, 11:22:18 PM »
Folks, does this helps?

<now back to my vacation>

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 14, 2018, 11:29:55 PM »
I have been Looking at that large area of remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea.   This is not the first time we have seen such a separation or near separation of an area of ice from the main pack.
I think we will see more and more of these separate ice patches in the future.

I am no longer envisioning the ice would retain a large central pack with clear fronts on all sides.   Where long term the fronts would advance and the central pack would shrink,  until the remaining ice is piled up along Greenland and Canada.

Instead I would propose that over years, we will see this central pack slowly dissolve into an increasing number of separate areas or concentrations of ice.    Sort of like the breakup of a super continent into smaller, separate continents. 

Eventually we will be tracking individual patches, for their own extent, area and concentration.   Tracking the ups and downs of each, as we watch the sub-packs fade on their own schedules.

Thus the Blue Ocean Event will come when the few remaining scatterings of ice melt below the combined threashold.   On that day there could be 3 or so separate areas of remaining ice in an otherwise blue ocean.   And those remaining areas of ice could be anywhere in the Arctic Ocean.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 11, 2018, 04:22:12 PM »
I made this a few years ago. The video shows drifting sea ice around Hopen.

<a href=";t=4s" target="_blank" class="new_win">;t=4s</a>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 12:04:05 PM »
Folks, please move the Baltic discussion to an appropriate existing thread (or even a new one). Not all weather and climate-related discussions belong here in this thread.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 22, 2018, 11:49:09 PM »
Apparently your forum software doesn’t handle orientation tags? The world is not actually upside down here.

And here I was being amazed at such a clear reflection of that cliff face in the water...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 22, 2018, 10:20:32 PM »
>out of reach of transpolar drift

There has been no transpolar drift whatsoever in 2017-18 and none is in the works.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 12, 2018, 05:29:21 PM »
A look back at Beaufort Sea for previous years on this date. Worldview terra/modis May11, 2000-2018.

bottom left corner of 2012 image flood filled

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 12, 2018, 04:15:46 PM »
I haven't tried to upload an mp4 yet, but I'll try.   

Barrow webcam, neat to see the sun riding the horizon.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 12, 2018, 10:40:52 AM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 11 MAY 2018 11,933,172 km2

Just to add to Juan's post :
- 2018 extent is now 430,415 km2 less than 2017
- how 2012 extent was 780,000 km2 less than 2018 and yet still ended up with a record low by 700,000 km2.

I have added a line on the first table to show the effect of removing 2012 from the 10 year average extent loss. The outcome for the minimum then comes in at 4.05 million km2 as opposed to 3.88 million km2.

I have also attached an Albedo Warming Potential graph from Tealight aka Nico Sun. It shows the recent strong 2018 extent losses are starting to have an upward impact.

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