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Messages - josh-j

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The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: June 09, 2019, 12:06:18 AM »
The problem is of course not the climate, the resources and the finite planet, all of which take decades to play out, but the humans who react in violence when some threshold is crossed, thus triggering a fast collapse over a few years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 04, 2019, 05:06:21 AM »
Don't panic?  The polar cell is acting funny.  Crops aren't getting planted.  The decline in nature is so fast now you can point it out in pictures.  The kids are in the streets because they stand to be destroyed, and nobody else has a clue. 

This was a structurally cold winter in a lot of ways, I think.  And the polar cell is doing tricks.  At 15C.  Like in 2016, like Now.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 02, 2019, 08:53:08 PM »
global extent slowly but steadily is digging deeper into uncharted territory and nobody is paying attention, so many days without postings.

I do pay attention:
I use a big whiteboard in my office and actualise the difference of Global Sea Ice Extent versus the average 2000-2009 on a daily basis (today e.g. 2.62 M km²). In addition I list the "top three" years (today 2019 - 2017 - 2018). After several weeks my colleagues started to pay attention and discuss climate change issues (most of them were not familiar at all with the global threat we are facing). Few of my colleagues neglect the facts, most of them are aware of the problems and choose little smart solutions for their daily lives.
I think all of us could do things like that to wake up the colleagues, friends and family members. Noone can save the world by themselves - but if everybody pays a little more attention (stairs vs. lift, bike vs. car, home-grewn vegetables instead of intercontinental import etc etc) the world could be a tiny little bit better  :D

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 27, 2019, 05:10:39 PM »
Goodness me, these protests are even inconveniencing people on their way to work ... surely this cannot stand. Protests interrupting people's normal day? Perish the thought old chap.

The 10 Working Principles of Extinction Rebellion
1. We have a shared vision of change 2. We set our mission on what is necessary 3. We need a re-generative culture 4. We hopefully challenge ourselves, and this toxic system 5. We value reflection and learning 6. We welcome everyone, and every part of everyone into Extinction Rebellion 7. We actively mitigate for power 8. We avoid blaming and shaming 9. We are a non-violent movement 10. We are based on autonomy and de-centralization

( It'll never catch on :) )

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 27, 2019, 10:11:17 AM »
Yesterday I was called a fool because I prefer to use my own two feet. :)
Found this comment very apt:
If you are middle class, they call you a champagne socialist
If you are working class, they say it's the politics of envy
If you wear leather shoes, they call you a hypocrite
If you don't, they call you a hippy.
Everyone, apparently, is disqualified from challenging the system.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 26, 2019, 07:19:15 AM »

You've got what it takes Josh. Keep looking and moving forward. Kudos!

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 22, 2019, 02:17:52 PM »

The one problem is that I work in an "enhanced vetted" job, and even an arrest with no charges can show on the record my employer views. They would probably not think highly of such a record. But who knows, is it could be worth the risk....  :o The planet is burning after all (literally - there's a moorland fire outside my window right now).

Seriously considering asking my manager how it might be viewed; its hard to say, because I work in a very large company so it isn't just a question of asking the boss  :-\

I can relate.  At times, I've had too much to lose to be a strong activist.  At times, not much of anything to lose.  Problem is, most with little to lose are so consumed by just getting food, shelter, and necessities that they don't feel the importance of activism.

I've sought to do my part by opening my home to a few folks with little to lose.  It's been costly in its own way, but I have no regrets.  If you live in a strategic area, you might lend some living space to folks who want to come and protest or do other activist work.  I'm not sure has activists or whether has a bulletin board system for places to stay.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 22, 2019, 12:27:22 PM »
Greetings  from Extinction Rebellion Marble Arch! Two of my friends were arrested at Waterloo Bridge but they are back here again. It's a marvellous atmosphere , I went to the initial rebellion in October, amazing how far it has come in 6 months

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: April 17, 2019, 04:42:30 PM »
always interesting to see several participants meaning the same, being right and ending up with in a dispute because of a different angle, different wording and not to first agreeing on terms.

may i remind you all that a cilinder is a circle from one (top) angle and a square from another (side) angle?

it's such a waste of energy that we, and that includes myself of course, alway need so much energy to come to terms while sharing the same or a very similar view.

this, just to make sure it's understood is a compliment to all of you, combined with a call to increas the angles and perspectives how to look at things and express them.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 11, 2019, 07:38:00 PM »
Tend to agree with FOoW and if the blowtorch is out I think it best the horses should go too. ;) There was an early dip in the Greenland Sea last year (extent not swimming). Perhaps this warm spell will have the same result. Ice south of Svalbard will also be challenged.

JAXA RGB shows the okhotsk. Here is jan1-apr10 

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: April 03, 2019, 09:33:32 PM »
German State to Accept Environmentalists' Bee-Saving Plan

The German state of Bavaria is set to accept in large part a plan by environmentalists to save bees and protect biodiversity, averting a referendum on the issue.

In February, backers of the plan collected nearly 1.75 million signatures, over 18% of the region's electorate and enough to force a vote. It would set aside more space to protect imperiled insects and banish many pesticides from a third of Bavaria's agricultural land. ... there would be payments to farmers to cushion the impact.

Consequences / Re: Water wars
« on: January 02, 2019, 09:05:23 PM »
Jordan and the Middle East.

The Dead Sea is dropping by about 1.2 metres a year, mostly due to the over extraction of water from the River Jordan (often now just a series of muddy puddles) and over extraction from aquifers in Jordan and by its neighbours. Just another indication of  the perennial problem of water demand greater than water supply that plagues all of the Middle East.

When I was there in 2003 and 2004 there was a lot of discussion about how much was down to bad agriculture. Instead of crops suitable for semi-desert, (e.g. olives) - banana plantations everywhere.  But these estates were owned by powerful families - nothing could or can be done.

I produced a business plan for the water and waste water for the Northern Governorates of Jordan. Much of the plan was about reducing water losses, thereby delaying the inevitable. But agriculture use was inviolate. As part of the research for the plan I also looked at water resources and water use in the entire region - Iraq, Israel, Syria, part of Turkey, Saudi Arabia. It was not good.

The only surprise about Jordan now going for the DISI aquifer water is that it has taken so long.
Other Middle East countries increasingly rely on desalination - but that can only take you so far, and even reverse osmosis is not cheap in cost or energy. News from Iran on water and agriculture is not good. In a few years demand for oil and gas will reduce as the water resources gap yawns wider and wider. The only question is - when. Climate change? Just nudges things along a bit quicker. There is a horrible inevitability about it all.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 31, 2018, 07:45:45 PM »
When I was born in 1943, there were 2.3 billion people on the planet, by 1970, that was up to 3.6 billion.  Imagine if we had not made the transition from coal.  We would have been where we are now, decades earlier. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 28, 2018, 06:26:00 PM »
There is a book that has just been transalted that should be quite good on the subject :
Oil, Power, and War: A Dark History from Mathieu Auzanneau.
To have a french book translated in English, it must be quite good. I asked the french version to Santa Claus (well, somebody will help him).
The guy has a blog in french :

Peeking at Peak Oil from Kjell Aleklett must also be good. Didn't get it yet.

Here is also a video of Mathieu Auzanneau.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 27, 2018, 04:31:01 AM »
Vox, Thanks for the link to the seed source. Also appreciate all of Sidd's experience with farming and oil crops. Wish there was somewhere that would serve as a primer to others interested in small scale bio production and could offer up working examples. Because I approach farming from a micro scale that uses very little equipment I doubt I have much to offer most farmers but I probably could educate someone like a gardener ramping up to feed dozens. Sidd uses oil seed crops and oil presses for bio feedstock to power equipment .I let lard hogs ( they are different than meat hogs ) do what they do best ,eat and get fat. So my bio feedstock is self propelled and biologically motivated to replicate.
 Anyway extinction and all the damage currently taking place should inspire more ideas about how we can individually and collectively move forward. Counterintuitively  it has a tendency to cause people to bury their heads which is just one more tragedy . I have younger relatives who refuse to read up on the subjects that are everyday discussed here on the ASIF. They make it clear they would prefer to Not hear. For me problems are challenges looking for solutions but for others they are threats to their preferred lifestyles. This is where I am conflicted . Yes reality is profoundly sad but that is no reason to give in . I am not a wreaking ball however . I hope to make a farm that works to both feed and educate
people not yet ready to walk back their expectations . If there were multiple examples of others farmers and their working farms I think it might find an audience. Sidd and his efforts are one example , I am another. There must be many others but I couldn't point anyone to a place where our separate but similar experiences and farms can be showcased. A serious media effort isn't my forte but I suppose I need to up my game. Someone needs to search out good examples... for the living things passing.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 21, 2018, 03:12:55 PM »
Meanwhile, at the other end of the globe, the BAS has put this picture up from Halley (Brunt ice shelf):-

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 21, 2018, 01:14:06 PM »
Let's not have The Road-type discussions (referring to that horrible post-apocalyptic movie).
OK - But, eliminating the discussion won't do a thing to mitigate a situation that a number of our children may be faced with. If not Road Warriors, certainly cherishing "Second Harvests" carefully preserved for sustenance in the lean times.

It's horrible to contemplate, but it's fairly recent history that will be repeated on a much broader scale.
Contritely Yours

Science / Re: Solar cycle
« on: December 21, 2018, 10:33:59 AM »
'Tis the solstice.

Winter Solstice 2018 will be at 22:23 hrs Greenwich mean Time (GMT) on Friday, 21 December.

This is the solar cycle that interests me most, apart from the butterfly wings image of the sunspot cycles.

Imagine it is pre-history, and you do not know if this year the sun will start to rise higher in the sky again. Perhaps this time it will get lower and lower in the sky until......

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 21, 2018, 06:10:13 AM »
Wili, Thanks . Not sure I deserve it . I have to get more info up as the annual start to my food challenge approaches . I got about three acres worked with the pig bio tractor this summer. There is a nice cover crop growing on it right now.  We have had a little rain and it's nice with everything green.
Squirreled away potatoes , dried corn, acorns, amaranth, dried summer squash, spelt and winter squash. I will put in a winter garden soon with what's left from last years compost pile. Really the only thing different from fifty years ago is the bio and the solar power. Otherwise very retro.
 Cannibus legalization has presented itself as a temptation . I think I will resist the money temptation but there is crazy big money going down around here. On good information over a million per acre in profit. I always thought that pot was for fun and any time it was for something else trouble was near.
Anyway I have my task ahead of me and getting rich isn't necessary to prove what I am trying to prove. What I am doing would easily scale to village scale food production. Cities are just such an incredible food challenge. Although I can't quite rap my brain around feeding the cities I still think feeding millions of small towns is a viable tragectory.
 Sorry if I get all dark sometimes. There is still a lot we can do for our part. I am sure planting my garden is part of what I need . I need to know one man can produce 20,000 lbs. food without fossil emissions . I need to know what I am doing will scale. On those fronts things are rosy . You'd think it would temper my dark inclinations but one day in LA traffic and reality sinks in.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 17, 2018, 09:32:08 PM »
But every time the rich theoretically have a choice but the choice is almost never to use their wealth for the good of men (m/f).

Absolutely, and that's because concentrated wealth (which owns them, not the other way around) poisons their minds, and more.

Which is why, of all the people in the world, the rich need to be saved most. I know it's counterintuitive, but we need to save the rich.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 17, 2018, 09:06:35 AM »
Asimov's trilogy thrilled me half a century ago. Samsara opened my senses to sights, sounds and emotions I'd not experienced - but the impact is lessened each time the disk is played.

Bruce's infrequent missives from the front lines, where hirsute porcine acornivours vie with organic produce to win the seal of approval from those who ultimately control the fields, the wallows, and access to the market, give hope that some few of my species - abetted perhaps by their suid companions, might escape the winnowing that follows.

Hope, even unrealistic hope, if untainted by miracles wrought by gods or technology, might allow some tiny minority to search out the hard knowledge they'll need to survive the bottleneck that will strangle their peers.

Neither mysticism nor mechanical marvels will save our species. Work, sweat and empathy might spare a few.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 16, 2018, 08:15:41 PM »
I just don't understand it. Whenever I'm talking to environmentalists, activists, and climate change scientists, they always call for bold and transformative action.  I just don't think they understand what it means to be "bold". I'm not convinced that a carbon tax or tax incentives are what I would call "bold". It sounds like trying to tackle climate change without rocking the boat. I think cowardly is a better term for it.

We're facing an extinction. Why can't we be creative and start talking about a radically different world? And I'm not going to deny that capitalism may be too resilient to ultimately defeat. But we need to start exposing its contradictions, its exploitation, and its destructive properties. It's incredibly difficult to do that when you're still endorsing the system by promoting half-measures like wealth caps and carbon taxes.

It's time we try something else.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 16, 2018, 07:08:20 PM »
The rich aren't the problem, their wealth is the problem. Capitalism is simply the most efficient way for concentrated wealth to grow itself. It uses its owners to grow itself.

What needs to be done first, is putting a cap on how much an individual can own. The system then has the chance to change accordingly.

A guillotine will get you nowhere, only back to square one of the vicious cycle (concentrated wealth doesn't care, rich people can be replaced). But I understand the sentiment.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 15, 2018, 01:02:20 PM »
Am I the only one that checks in with the webcam in Utqiagvik to see if the house on the left hand side of the image has its door wide open again?  It's cold up there.  Why is the damn door open so often?  Maybe we should call them to let them know?

It's a normal cold porch, a place to remove the outermost layer of clothes, that may have a whole lot of snow/ice on them. Snow is shaken out of the doorway, the floor occasionally brushed clear. Door might be permanently open or closed only during snowstorms. Might not even have a lock on it to prevent freezing shut. You see these sometimes even in southern Finland. People might use these as freezers for food stuffs.

Checking words... Yep, entryway, comparable to mudroom in warmer places. The lock of the house would be in the door protected from wind and ice buildup, handling keys @-25C is much nicer to do over a floor rather than on snowbank or ice in a blastchiller wind. Might add that it's an excellent way to get your home's lock frozen shut if you open it once with a snowy key. Normally you do it at most, once in your life. The same applies of course to your car door, if you're a winter outdoors person you quite quickly learn to put out or take with you some antifreezing oil when parking over in nature.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 11, 2018, 05:16:51 PM »
Sudden Stratospheric Warming Linked To Open Water in Polar Ice Pack


Though not especially rare in some parts of the Arctic, the north Greenland polynya of February 2018 was most unexpected. 50,000 km² of open water in the Wandel Sea, an area the size of the state of Kentucky or the province of Nova Scotia.

... In their paper, What caused the remarkable February 2018 Greenland Polynya?, Moore, Schweiger, Jinlun Zhang and Mike Steele identify the polynya's cause to be strong surface winds catalyzed by a dramatic warming in Earth's upper atmosphere known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

"During these events, temperatures in the stratosphere – about 30km above ground level—can warm by 10° or 15°C in just a few days," Moore says.

"This causes a change in air circulation that includes a reversal in the winds in the stratosphere. These high altitude winds blow against the west-to-east direction of the jet stream, descending toward the Earth's surface. In February 2018, this caused winds from Siberia to blow cold air into northern Europe, creating a weather system that became known as the 'Beast from the East'. It brought temperatures of minus 20°C to northern Europe, and the same weather pattern moved warmer air northwards up the east coast of Greenland."

Strong southerly winds forced mild air to Greenland and beyond, but it wasn't their warmth that caused the polynya.

"Most Arctic warmings last a day or two," says Moore. "This lasted a week, and these were the warmest temperatures and strongest winds observed in north Greenland since observations began in the 1960s. Winds were close to hurricane force (93+km/h) and temperatures were above freezing. Once we got that piece of the puzzle, we realized it could be wind rather than warmth that caused the polynya."

While the size of the polynya was unprecedented over the period we have good data, it appears not to be tied to the thinning of the ice pack that has occurred over the same period. Simulations with the University of Washington's Pan-Arctic Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) indicate that similar conditions would have created a polynya, even without the recent thinning of the ice north of Greenland.

G. W. K. Moore et al. What caused the remarkable February 2018 North Greenland Polynya?, Geophysical Research Letters (2018)

During late February and early March 2018, an unusual polynya was observed off the north coast of Greenland. This period was also notable for the occurrence of a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Here we use satellite and in‐situ data, a reanalysis and an ice‐ocean model to document the evolution of the polynya and its synoptic forcing. We show that its magnitude was unprecedented and that it was associated with the transient response to the SSW leading to anomalous warm southerly flow in north Greenland. Indeed, regional wind speeds and temperatures were the highest during February going back to the 1960s. There is evidence that the thinning sea ice has increased its wind‐driven mobility. However, we show that the polynya would have developed under thicker ice conditions representative of the late 1970s and that even with the predicted trend towards thinner sea ice, it will only open during enhanced southerly flow.

Plain Language Summary:

In late February 2018, satellite imagery revealed the presence of a large polynya (a region of reduced sea ice cover within the pack), in the Wandel Sea off the north coast of Greenland. Since this region is not known for the development of polynyas, this discovery generated interest among Arctic observers and in the science community, raising questions about the nature and cause of this unusual event. In this paper, we show that its opening coincided with a period of sustained and unusually warm winds from the south, with above‐freezing temperatures and wind speeds in excess of 25 m/s reported at local weather stations. February 2018 was also notable for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, in which an abrupt warming of the atmosphere between 10‐50 km altitude occurred in conjunction with a reversal of the stratospheric winds. We show this event was responsible for the polynya. We also use a computer model to confirm the dominant role of the winds in creating the polynya. Finally, we show that even with future thinning of sea ice due to climate change, extreme winds will remain necessary to create a polynya in this region over the next few decades.

Pointer to the 2017-2018 freezing season discussion,2141.msg143538.html#msg143538

and the ASIB
Talk about unprecedented

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: December 05, 2018, 09:05:41 PM »
Am I the only one that checks in with the webcam in Utqiagvik to see if the house on the left hand side of the image has its door wide open again?  It's cold up there.  Why is the damn door open so often?  Maybe we should call them to let them know?

no your not alone, perhaps that shack is used as a dog shelter or for other animals or perhaps they store something there that should not warm/melt but at the same time should stay protected from precipitation and/or winds.

even though i'm curious like yourself, i'm quite sure that they have a good reason to do things how they do them. people that far up north have learnt early not to neglect protecting their home and stuff. let's see, perhaps we get an answer one day.


It is an arctic entryway, it is designed to stay below freezing but out of the snow and wind. It is a good place to leave gear that will suffer if it thaws. The door will probably get closed when it get colds enough so that the inside temp stays below freezing. If it has a door...

Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: December 04, 2018, 06:29:37 AM »
2.93, Wow!

Will we even get a flat horizontal line before we reach 2 C above pre-industrial, or without civilizational collapse?
Though aware of the need to reduce CO2 for decades, we've instead increased the rate at which they're accumulating.
This inability to cooperate even in the face of extinction is the Achilles heel that doomed our culture, and possibly our species.

It's impossible to claim any progress at all until Dr Keeling's curve has turned back on itself.
How can we possibly explain this to the grand kids?

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: November 29, 2018, 11:25:22 AM »
When entomologists began noticing and investigating insect declines, they lamented the absence of solid information from the past in which to ground their experiences of the present. “We see a hundred of something, and we think we’re fine,” Wagner says, “but what if there were 100,000 two generations ago?” Rob Dunn, an ecologist at North Carolina State University who helped design the net experiment in Denmark, recently searched for studies showing the effect of pesticide spraying on the quantity of insects living in nearby forests. He was surprised to find that no such studies existed. “We ignored really basic questions,” he said. “It feels like we’ve dropped the ball in some giant collective way.”

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 24, 2018, 12:06:28 AM »
Perhaps this should go in the Conservative Scientists thread, but I found this prediction in the new US government climate report to be an absolute joke (as reported in the NY Times):

"A major scientific report issued by 13 federal agencies on Friday presents the starkest warnings to date of the consequences of climate change for the United States, predicting that if significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming, the damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end."

Ok, let's assume the report guesses that the economy would grow by 2% a year for the rest of the century, if not for climate change.  That would take our current $20 trillion economy to around $100 trillion by 2100.  So, they are saying that rather than $100 trillion, it's only going to grow to $90 trillion, which equates to a 1.85% growth rate.  Please, what an absolute farce!  For starters, anyone who thinks they can predict the economic growth rate to the level of precision is deluded. Who here thinks the US economy will more than quadruple in size this century?  "If significant steps are not taken to rein in global warming" the global economy will collapse this century, not grow by 2, or 1.85%. This whole "by 2100" BS has got to go.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 23, 2018, 08:26:59 PM »
Excuse me if you consider this cherry-picking, but the extent and area growth of late seems to me extraordinary and insane especially during this out-of-control climate change we keep hearing about.  8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

I imagine the the 1980's average to be an average of essentially 10 differently timed steep rises. The effect of averaging then takes all the steepness out of it.

On this date, maybe 5 years in the 1980's were mostly done already and thus growing slowly again, 1 was rising steeply like 2018, and 4 had not picked up the pace yet and were still low.

It would be interesting to see a plot of extent vs growth rate, with time omitted. Then we could see if the growth rate is unusual at this stage of the S curve.

Regardless of the growth rate, it's fair to interpret that the freeze is happening extraordinary early relative to the last 20 years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 19, 2018, 01:28:36 AM »
bbr, if you have a point to make about HB and EOSDIS, why don't you post a comparison of EOSDIS images for 2018 vs. 2015, 2014, 2017, 2013? These are years where UH AMSR2 area data shows similar values. The best would be an animation. Instead of capitalizing messages and making sure to post the last word, you could try to actually prove your point.
Calling UH AMSR2 data "some random computer's output" on this forum is not going to cut it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: November 15, 2018, 06:46:17 PM »
As a man living in Germany it is hard to imagine to have only twilight around noon. The days here are also shorter now as in summer, but here sunset is around 5 PM.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November)
« on: November 08, 2018, 07:16:12 PM »
Latest update on the ASIB: PIOMAS November 2018

Arctic sea ice / Re: PIOMAS vs CryoSat
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:19:41 AM »
Just to let you know that the AWI CryoSat-2 data service has been resumed in the past days as can be seen by the PIOMAS - CryoSat-2 figures above. The CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness algorithm has been updated to version 2.1 with a number of changes:

  • Improved snow information for regions outside the central Arctic Ocean
  • new options for automated analysis (NSIDC region codes in gridded and orbit data
  • improved uncertainty for gridded sea ice thickness

We have also added online documentation and anonymous ftp access, you can find the necessary information here:

AWI CryoSat-2 wiki

Whats new in version 2.1

Cheers, Stefan

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 03, 2018, 10:28:14 PM »
The problem for a rebellion is that clear objectives are needed. Gandhi wanted India to be independent, King and Mandela wanted equal rights...
Here we want to reduce CO2 emissions, but that's difficult to translate in a political requirement. If we only consider sub-objectives, maybe me miss important points. And how do we know that the objective has been reached ?
Non cooperation objective are easier to achieve, we can boycot companies or countries that don't agree to act like required. We can refuse to use some technologies...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 24, 2018, 11:30:11 AM »
Do we need a catastrophe to prove a catastrophe?
Or are we having a catastrophe right now, but we have not notice it yet?

We are a race that can barely survive its own economics let alone standard natural variations such as quakes, VEI7+ volcanos... who's nearly at WWIII every other month... Climate change on top of this...!?  Even our most prized architecture emulates a dead society~ the Romans!

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 16, 2018, 04:52:04 AM »
Well, I'm back!  No damage to my home, but a few neighbors didn't fare so well, and this is some 60 miles from hurricane landfall.  My electric power went off about 3 o'clock Wednesday and came back about 3:30 Sunday.  I did watch two trees fall Wednesday afternoon, one (damaged 2 years ago by Hermine) from my property into the community road, the other a beautiful 30" diameter red oak took out part of a neighbor's tree house (and the tree in which it lived).  I cut and removed the tree in the road (now a nice brush fence next to a path in my woods).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2018, 05:57:39 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT 5,045,380 km2(October 10, 2018)

Normal service may be gradually returning, in bits  -

- Extent increase a less than average 78k km2,
- Extent is 711 k  (12.4 %) below the 2010's average extent on this date,
- Extent is 861 k (14.6 %) below 2017 on this date.
- freezing to date from minimum is 853k (59.2%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- on average 14.5% (1/7th)of the increase in extent is done.

An extra line in the table based on average extent increase in the last 5 years has been added. This is because extent gain in 2012-13 was so large (rebound from record low minimum) that it distorts the average. The outcome from using the 10 year average extent gain from now is a maximum of 13.48 million km2 (400k < 2017). Using the previous 5 years's average extent gain, the resulting maximum is 13.11 million km2, some 770,000 km2 less than the 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2. 

From the GFS maps it looks like North of 80 will go through a cold patch Friday to Sunday, but return to strong +ve temp anomalies by Monday. The GFs maps also indicate that overall the Arctic is going to stay at above average temperatures, the +ve anomaly approaching 5 degrees celsius by mid-week, i.e. if temperature has anything to do with it the outlook is for slow extent increase for the next 5 days and perhaps beyond.

Perhaps when this relatively warm period ends, extent gain will rebound very strongly. But maybe the delay in freezing will also reduce thickening of the ice. There is a good chance that in a week or so 2018 extent will be at a record low, which is a surprise (at least to me).

ps: The opposite is happening in the Antarctic - melting has barely started, very slowly underway.

pps: postings will be erratic while I dump microsoft office for "libre". (Next year dumping Windows - microsoft nearly lost my data for me - paying Microsoft licence fees is like voting Republican or for Brexit  - volunteering for grief).

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: October 06, 2018, 12:57:31 PM »
Hambi bleibt!

Hambacher forest can stay - uprooting is banned by country court. Details about the topic here:

This may be a first victory against the excessive lignite burning in Germany. There is a hope that "Hambi" could become a symbol just like Gorleben and Wackersdorf have been in the eighties in the preparation of the exit from nuclear. However, it took about 10-20 year for nuclear (until 2002) and it maybe necessary that the green party needs to be in government again to get that job done. But at least they are on the rise (maybe ~18% next week in Bavaria?).

Nevertheless today is party time!  ;D 20 000 people are expected today and the weather is fine  8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 04, 2018, 05:47:40 PM »
Ned W,
thank you for the re-analysis of data around the yearly minimum. It is an interesting plot and shows that the last two weeks are not so unusual as they appear to be.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 03, 2018, 10:22:05 PM »
Once again the pen draws a line on previously untouched areas of this graph.
The closest years in global SIE are 2017, 2016 and 2012. This is not by chance, but a trend.
I wonder whether SIE loss in the Antarctic will start soon (then we may see a global SIE like 2016) or whether it will be delayed (then the global curve should more look like 2017).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Accuracy of poll predictions
« on: September 29, 2018, 02:45:53 PM »
I have also made a variant of a graph that Ned W posted in the topmost post of this thread (and updated it with the last 2 years of data).

The blue line segments in the graph below show the median predictions for NSIDC September extent in the June, July and August polls on this forum in the past 6 years.  The red line segments show the median predictions by the Sea Ice Prediction Network.  Finally, the diamond symbols in the graph show the observed NSIDC September extent for each year.  (I used version 2.1 of the NSIDC monthly extent dataset for 2013-2017).

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: September 29, 2018, 12:31:40 PM »
Moss Beds in East Antarctica not doing well. I did not know that they existed.

Climate change kills Antarctica's ancient moss beds

Emerging from the ice for a brief growing season every Antarctic summer, the lush green mosses of East Antarctica are finally succumbing to climate change. That is according to a study of the small, ancient and hardy plants - carried out over more than a decade. This revealed that vegetation in East Antarctica is changing rapidly in response to a drying climate.

The findings are published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

"Visiting Antarctica, you expect to see icy, white landscapes," said lead scientist Prof Sharon Robinson from the University of Wollongong, in Australia. "But in some areas there are lush, green moss beds that emerge from under the snow for a growing period of maybe six weeks."

While West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula are some of the fastest warming places of the planet, East Antarctica has not yet experienced much climate warming, so the scientists did not expect to see much change in the vegetation there.

"But we were really surprised when we saw how fast it was changing," Prof Robinson said. "After a pilot study in 2000, we set up monitoring in 2003. When we returned in 2008, all these green moss beds had turned dark red, indicating they were severely stressed. It was a dramatic change. "They change from green to red to grey if they get really stressed. "The red pigments are the sunscreen and drought stress protective pigments they produce to protect themselves - antioxidant and UV screening compounds. "Grey means they are dying."

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 25, 2018, 05:09:40 AM »
You think there is no difference between a mosquito and a human?

They utilize 3 dimensions, we're creatures of the surface?

They're predators, we're scavengers?

We see them as killers. They see us as a meal.

I've one of their relatives encased in amber - I'm not sure our line will last so long.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: September 23, 2018, 06:01:16 PM »
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index  ;D
Oh, was that one missing??? What a bunch of amateurs we are!?!? Just one of the main ENSO components. Well, thank you for the addition.

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: September 20, 2018, 08:27:42 PM »
This may have been posted elsewhere, but as a geoengineering scheme, this looks pretty interesting on the face of it. The Guardian:

Build walls on seafloor to stop glaciers melting, scientists say

Building walls on the seafloor may become the next frontier of climate science, as engineers seek novel ways to hold back the sea level rises predicted to result from global warming.

The Kraken Wakes
Author: John Wyndham, published July 1953

The novel describes escalating phases of what appears to be an invasion of Earth by aliens.
The aliens are speculated to come from a gas giant, and thus can only survive under conditions of extreme pressures in which humans would be instantly crushed. The deepest parts of the oceans are the only parts of Earth in any way useful to them.

Humanity nevertheless feels threatened by this new phenomenon – particularly since the newcomers show signs of intensive work to adapt the ocean deeps to their needs.

In the final phase,the aliens begin melting the polar ice caps, causing sea levels to rise.
London and other ports are flooded, causing widespread social and political collapse. Eventually organised social and political life in general ceases to exist.

Ultimately, scientists in Japan develop an underwater ultrasonic weapon that kills the aliens. However, the global population has been reduced to between a fifth and an eighth of its pre-invasion level, and the world's climate has been changed permanently.

The book describes in some detail the ever greater efforts by society to prevent catastrophe rather than adapt to it. Higher and higher sea walls and other massive infrastructure - all doomed to fail.

To me it was a good illustration of the mind-set that says "we can fix it, no matter what it is". Man as the master of nature. I doubt if I will be around long enough to see sea walls in the Antarctic happen, though I am sure to see a lot of the built environment in Florida being put on stilts and an awful lot of new sea walls, raised roads etc. built on land.
And a cross post from Sidd

" We abuse and exploit Earth for the same reason we abuse and exploit one another: because we have lost a sense of kinship with our fellow human beings, with other species, and with our planetary home."


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 16, 2018, 03:11:43 PM »
Oren, yes, I think it is just the ice winking in and out.

There's a large region of slush around the ESS that must be at the edge of being called ice.

This image is beautiful and demonstrates clearly the limitations of the false color maps in capturing the wondrous nature of the Arctic ice. The field of low concentration fragmented ice dwarfs the area showing up as ice on the false color animation.

Thank you for this.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 08, 2018, 11:37:48 AM »

Some snow will melt but refreeze may actually commence shortly in Foxe Basin, and Hudson Bay is quickly approaching freezing. Will the benefit of proximity to the CAA / continental displacement of the polar vortex result in a very early refreeze? I think so. It has been variably or mostly below freezing most recent days. Some FYI / potential MYI remains as well.

...... may increasingly turn Hudson Bay into a redoubt for sea ice (as we saw in very muted melt this year).
"listen very carefully, I will say this only once" (From 'allo, 'allo)

I attach below two area graphs for Hudson Bay (includes Foxe Basin) for 2018.

The first is for the current part of the year. Looking at that one might think there are significant variations over the years.

The second graph is for the whole year. This puts variations over the years into perspective. The Hudson Bay Sea Ice is remarkably stable over the years and has been almost impervious to climate change in the Arctic. This is a big contrast to most other seas of the Arctic.

In 2018 melt was a bit late by one to two weeks, but caught up in the end - area being just under 7,500 km2 on Sept 6th, close to the average for both the 2010's and 2000's, and about half the average area of the previous two decades. 7,500 km2 of ice in a basin of 1.2 million km2 is - not a lot. There is similar data for extent.

Melting was not very muted this year. The lateness was well within annual variations. Will it refreeze? of course. Early ? Maybe. EDIT But maybe not - Just read Red's data on temps. (I love real data)

The Hudson Bay is not, as yet, an advertisement for Quebec, Ontario (and the CAA?) to become the newest ice sheet on the planet.

This thread was based on a poorly written press article and poorly understood remark by the lead author. The sound and fury - signifying something, but not a lot.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 08, 2018, 07:20:03 AM »

Thanks for agreeing that we don't know when year-round BOE may happen...could be any time. That's my whole point.

You are not accurately quoting crandles.  I have not seen any credible poster that agrees a year round BOE "could be any time."  Your paper was a good one. However, it does not support the proposition that you say it does. 

These discussions are getting tiresome. 

Right before you posted your doom and gloom comment, bbr posted a 10 day model run at 850 hPa and pretends the next ice age is coming.  Neven should delete his posts every time he posts a 10 day model run and he needs to explain why he always posts 850 hPa data. 

This is an open forum and everyone's opinion is welcome. But, it is starting to be hard to take things seriously when people dont seem to even want to do the most basic research before posting what they claim are statements of fact. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 07, 2018, 05:07:33 PM »
It is time for the monthly update of the comparison of actual data with the long term trend.
August 2018 is 0,16 mio. km² below the long term linear trend, see attached graph.

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