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Messages - Tigertown

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1
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: August 23, 2020, 06:13:26 PM »
Nic Lewis is a climate risk denier. There is no doubt about it. He believes there are no serious risks to global warming. He's not stupid, though.

Hefaistos is not a climate risk denier. He made his point, but there's absolutely no need to turn Nic Lewis into Galileo.

Does that about sum it up?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 04, 2020, 11:36:36 PM »
I bet you meant south...

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:48:52 AM »
AMSR2 remote sensing instrument is showing a significant increase of sea ice area in the CAB.



I am expecting NSIDC sea ice area to follow suit in the next several days (especially the Central Arctic).

No it hasn't.  Clouds and fog have increased blocking the sensor.

Which is why NSIDC area in the cab isn't as effected uses different bandwidth.

I can't believe this had to be explained for the billionth time.

We have huge holes of of open water opening up within the ice pack and you know Bremen is highly obscured by clouds.

So you are intentionally sabatoging the discussion.

Don't bother replying for me.  I'm putting you on ignore. 



For what it's worth.    I'm sure there is many posters who think I'm just being bias.  Believe me I am rooting for a record low because it's interesting and inevitable.

But also extent and area are currently dead last.

But I call it as it is and this forum has worked so hard to shed our bias towards the end of the ice cap.

And we have a great community who has worked hard to inform ourselves about things like Bremen being obscured by weather.

This weather dude knows that and pisses all over that to press his agenda.

That's just lame.



4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 03:40:53 AM »
I would be surprised if NSIDC extent finishes in the top 4 this year.

I'm willing to guess you should be prepared for a surprise then. After the intensity of the GAAC let up, the extent loss slowdown was almost inevitable, but I think maintaining the stall/slowdown for the rest of the season would be even more surprising considering the current SSTs in the regions the peripheral ice is expanding into, as well as the dropping compaction/concentration in the already thoroughly discussed thinning regions (Beaufort, CAA, CAB, etc).

I can be counted among those expecting a significant increase in extent dropoff post-Beaufort storm/drifting ice warmup, and I believe the area measurements showing consistent melt supports this. Even 2012 has some slowdowns around this time of year, so I'm not entirely sure why some of us are convinced this is going to be a year that struggles to crack the bottom 5 in extent. Have you seen the air and water temps in the Arctic Circle recently? They might make you reconsider.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 12:06:44 PM »
I think there is a miscommunication here. The ice is/was "compacting", meaning it was generally moving towards the center of the pack, as an expected result of the high pressure and anti-cyclonic winds. I think all/most posters agree on that.
However, is the ice compact, meaning with no small holes inside the pack? I think many posters are saying no, it is not compact, since area has disappeared while the ice was moving northward, thus there is less ice covering a smaller extent.
Is the ice strong and defensible? I think many posters are saying no.
And have ice floes stacked on top of one another due to the northward movement, as happens with pressure ridges in winter? I think most/all posters now agree that no.

BTW, great animation Pagophilus.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 03:49:25 AM »
OK, this is it.  This is our compact, unrubbled extent.  Our CAB Bastion if you will.

It's due north of Ellesmere.  The lower left hand corner is grounded on an island in the CAA.

To the left, it is bounded by the Beaufort, which *is* rubble, and the upper left hand corner is where the ESS and Chukchi melt in-situ are chewing into it.

Directly above, the Laptev ice boundary is chewing northward at as much as 50km/day, and will almost certainly be passing 85N before the end of this.

To the right, you have a combination of ice being rubbled, melting in situ as it is dumped into the Fram conveyor, or shoved into the emerging killing zone along the Atlantic front to the north of Svalbard and FJL.

This image is about 1.5 million km2.  There is far too little that will survive outside of it for my comfort.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 19, 2020, 01:00:20 AM »
Today's Worldview big picture is beautiful.

It is now obvious that the entire Beaufort / Chukchi flank of the pack is about to collapse, look at the darkening, it matches the area that melts out in the extended HYCOM and EURO forecasts. It won't melt out entirely but an area of 1M KM^2+ is about to disintegrate into open water and floes. And a similar area is about to meet the same fate on the Laptev front... also visible.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 12:04:13 PM »
Over the past 24 hours, the ice boundary in the Laptev Sea has moved northward by 30 km.

LOL go back 4-5 days and it has moved North like 100KM. 

On top of that if you zoom far in on modis and scroll between the days you will see  individual  large floes that are embedded  within the thin pancake  pack ice.

These floes once the winds turned out of a southerly based flow immediately started to abruptly fall apart and vanish while moving 25-40km a day thanks to a stupidly  warm low level wind and a blow torching open water Laptev.



ANYWAYS THE GIF ANIMATION BELOW I AM POSTING  IN RESPONSE TO THE CROWD THAT THINKS THE BASIN  ICE IS COMPACTED AND THAT WILL HELP PREVENT A WIDESPREAD COLLAPSE. 

WELL the image is a gif of the ESS and Chuchki region. 

One image is the 11th of July.  The other the 16th.



1.  Firstly I picked the 11th because BEFORE that DATE all the way back to June 25th that area is under a thick blanket  of clouds and or fog.

I stopped at the 25th because that many days with clouds  and fog theoretically would bring the assumption  that the ice in the  ESS region would have been shielded from major  disintegration.

Well clearly that isn't the case.   So on the 11th we can see the ice in that large region North  of WRANGEL island has seen roughly 50% of its 2D extent  vanish .  Now there is a ton of open water.

Weill  fast forward 5 days to the present and its very clear that at least another 15 percent of ice extent melted out.  Obviously  that region is all going to vanish. 

Not very long ago it appeared solid but it wasn't.

Thanks to stable winds the ice hasn't been raked back n forth.  Therefore it essentially melted in place  within the ice around it as the entire ice pack has been moving in unison thanks to the steady ANTICYCLONIC FLOw.

The image below it is from today.  Its looking at the far Northern  Laptev, the central basin including the pole, the Atlantic edge, and the far Northwest ESS.

It has been slightly darkened with  contrast beefed up to highlight regions where the ice appears darker than ice around  it. 

You may be wondering  what is causing that.

Its  not SOOT or DUST

it's not ALGAE  or PHOTOPLANKTON

In this instance it's just ice that has drained and is very thin.   Probably  between 0.2 and 0.5M thick. 


THIS THIN ICE STARTS TO APPEAR  DARKER AND DARKER BECAUSE THE OCEAN BELOW IS STARTING TO VISIBLY  APPEAR THROUGH THE ICE TO THE SAT SCANNER.


Thanks to the consistent winds  and ice around the super thin ice that is still 0.5-1.25M(thicker the further South towards North Canada) the ice is steadily melting in place.  Since winds have been long fetch relative motion...

BASICALLY THE ENTIRE PACK HAS BEEN  MOBILE MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE  DIRECTION.

This has eliminated almost all turbulence.  So for now we are going to see these  darkest areas start to melt out completely and large blotches of open water appear.   

That happened in the ESS except it was behind the clouds. 

The Atlantic /laptev side just  saw the entire ice pack shrink IN A HUGE WAY towards the NA coast.

Since winds are steady blowing that way what's happening is the Ice edge on the Siberian  side has pushed North while ice inside the pack has simultaneously  melted out.

This is why the pack has shrunk without the appearance  of large holes.


Looking at the current situation and the forecast.   Its likely we are about to see some big time holes start to open up inside the pack thanks to the insane insitu melt the last 15-20 days.

God speed

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 11:08:10 AM »
An animation of the ADS concentration values at 5 days increments, from June 30th to July 15th.
(click to play)

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 11:36:52 PM »
Can you please provide evidence of ice stacking on top of ot self to maintain thickness???

Pressure ridges are all over but they are only a few meters wide.

Its truly astonishing how many different excuses you guys are coming up with to rationalize away the most prolific warmth(May-present) we have every seen in the arctic basin and the decimation its caused.

This idea that the ice is super compact is a joke that you can visibly dispel on worldview.




11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 04:42:19 PM »
Admitting my ignorance, I don't get the comparisons to 2019. By this time last year melt momentum had clearly fizzled out, as many posters were saying at the time. This year it's been building and building without pause. If 2020 doesn't finish well below 2019, then I think this forum will collectively have to spend the freeze season reconsidering almost all of our assumptions about ice melt.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:20:20 PM »
We're entering uncharted waters.

Uncharted and free of ice...

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 10:05:57 AM »
Hycomsss seems to show atl waters flowing through to Baffin, Nullschool shows it emerging at 5-6c, with a flow established and nothing i can see to stop it the CAA will clear. We have 5 tidal peaks between now and the end of the season any one of those could clear the channels and begin to allow Beaufort surface waters to escape, to be replaced by increased inflows from both the Atl. and Pac.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 04:11:34 AM »
<snippage>
Today's yet another day where like 2/3 of the entire pack can be seen without cloud cover, but at times the losses do not reflect what I would expect to see. Maybe there are more systematic changes underway which will be made more evident going into August or perhaps a storm will show how weak the ice is.

A big part of the remaining ice is is between 50cm and 1.50m thick and that part of the ice self-evidently takes a bit longer to melt.
<snippage>
If that rate continues we shall witness a very widely spread in-situ melt out of almost everything below 1m thickness at present.
It's those numbers I'm afraid of  50-150cm.

I think some of the variability in numbers has been draining melt ponds, due to ice melting through, or ice  becoming too structurally weak and breaking up.

The sun and high pressure continue to be merciless.  Conservatively that's taking off 3-5cm a day, most likely 5cm or higher.  If this is true, we should see lots of gaps starting to open in the central pack in a few days.  Of course, this could in turn be compressed by the coming wind and ice movement, but should be reflected in rapidly decreasing numbers.

At some point - in about 15 days, we should start to see a lot of that mid-range ice begin to fail.  This should start to reveal relict MYI - the larger floes - that have been embedded in the pack for years.  I'm somewhat anticipating it will start to take on the look and feel of 2013 or 2014, but with far more heat loose in the system and no prospect for things to slow down.  Then we have what looks like could be a classic, powerful dipole form shoving ice out the Atlantic side, and "superheated" ESS and Laptev water into the central basin.

After this of course would also be the worst possible time for the gradient to flip and for us to see a large cyclone form.  It would be in keeping with our current luck for that to happen.

The Northern passage is now open.    Not sure if this is a record, but probably close.  The current high pressure regime shows no sign of abating.  I'm reasonably sure the NW passage will be open sometime in August, probably earlier than later if this heat continues, which turns it into another killing ground for the ice.  Unfettered insolation potentially through the end of the month, which besides melt is stacking up the heat budget for bottom melt in mid-late August.

Suffice to say I'm very pessimistic. 

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 11:42:36 PM »
For those wondering about a slowdown, it's the old 2D vs 3D problem. To shrink fast in 2D one must have lots of very thin ice at any given day that can complete its meltout. But what happens when most of the ice has a typical thickness of FYI at about 1.5m-2m, maybe 1m-1.5m by now? The sun and heat melt the ice in 3D, while 2D shows no ice disappearing, thus an apparent slowdown. This is especially true when the sun is shining on the thicker middle of the pack, while clouds hide the more southern and thinner parts. But the damage is accumulated in 3D, and if the season is long and/or warm enough, will translate to 2D with a vengeance.
Of course the other factor is extent vs area, compaction will show huge extent drops, but is not necessarily melt, it could be just movement.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 07:56:24 PM »
And I still think that the lack of airplane aerosols is worsening the impact of the GAAC.

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