Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - VeliAlbertKallio

Pages: [1]
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 08:57:54 PM »
The 'Freeform season chatter and light commentary' is a good alternative location for casual posts, as is '2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions' for one-day records and 'Smart and Stupid Questions Feel Free To Ask' for people wanting to become better informed.

It's been quite interesting to read the 'device' forum. No question, desktops are the new buggy whip ...  I have an iPhone, it's read-only, can't do any work, can't display the graphics properly. So who wants to make tiny pictures for a vanishing audience? The cost of a used 21" iMac like the 2009 used above is ~$150 if that (make coffee/sandwich at home, skip starbucks.)

If nobody works, how does any work get done?
The main forum has drifted off from citizen-science to chat room and copy/paste. The notion of posting a bald-faced claim without somewhat supporting it with a source, outside link, satellite product, other data or analysis -- who wants to do other people's homework? 

Climate change reminds me of covid19: a lot of immensely uninformed people running around making things worse. The very best communicators are not getting through despite setting up extraordinary resources (eg E Topol).

I post science-lite expository material: open data / freeware / no code / no calculus / no physics / no models but even that now exceeds the interest level.

I've no idea how the unprecedented current anomaly will play out but it is a good stand-in for a tipping point and imminent climate emergency -- and the experts are certainly taking it that way. It is definitely the biggest thing we've seen since the 2007 minimum and GAAC 2012.

The forum event response?  Apathy, tl;dr, bury the message, copy/paste the same old same old like it was 2013. And this is a very interested micro-demographic! It seems wake-up calls don't wake anybody any more ... if so, climate chaos won't end with a bang but a brain-fog whimper.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 03:26:04 PM »
Looking at the MASIE data, we've added 596k in the last 2 days. Almost half of this have come from the Russian Arctic seas (ESS +127k, Laptev +73k and Kara +84K).
The CAA, Baffin and Hudson Bay (+103k, +79k and +51k respectively) are the other big gainers.

The north east passage now appears closed off again (extent-wise, obviously not quite an ice bridge).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 23, 2020, 01:23:30 PM »
I look forward to seeing if this freezing season peaks in the lowest maximum in history.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 04:48:55 PM »
In the same metaphore:
The symptoms are worsening fast. I fear the patient is already in the terminal phase ;)
(dunno what "AA" means)

What will next year bring? I can't wait to see the patient die.

The continued living of this patient is frustrating climate action because it takes too long for the population at large to unmistakenly see clear consequences and get really fearfull. In an existential emergency one should be fearful if one wants to live.
The sooner we 'stop', the better for life on Earth. At least for the children's future.
The emergency signs were flashing in our eyes. Bye bye.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 02, 2020, 09:11:37 PM »
The truth is that no one really knows for sure what will happen when the BOE takes place.

To name just a sources, there's certain individuals I would trust more heavily on this subject than others.

Two who come immediately to mind are Paul Beckwith, and Peter Whadams.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 31, 2020, 11:27:26 AM »
The open water closest to the N. Pole, just north of Franz Joseph Land, is directly on the 85N. So it should move well north of that position over the coming days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 07:54:52 AM »
Chiming in on the refreeze / no refreeze / heat retention issue, i would offer that all physics is local.  Would suggest that sea water will refreeze when the immediate surface water reaches the freezing point of water for the particular salinity existing at any given point on the surface in the absence of other dynamic factors.  There could be enormous reserves of heat at depth and that will not matter much to the rate of refreeze if there is no mixing.  So if ice formation reduces wave action and inhibits mixing there could be an insulating effect.  There is definitely a concern that the deep arctic is accumulating heat just as is happening in the rest of the world’s oceans.  One concern, and research suggests it is happening rapidly and there were worrying signs this year, is that accumulation of subsurface heat will lead to a breakdown of stratification or it will just occur closer and closer to the surface such that lesser storms and wave action become able to bring up warmer saltier water from below.  Just reread but have not looked at the math yet, the Arctic Ocean already contains enough heat to melt ALL the sea ice multiple times over.  Would certainly already have a BOE every year were it not for the Arctic’s inverse stratification.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 14, 2020, 04:00:18 AM »

RIP Konrad Steffen, who died doing research in Greenland.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 11:57:50 PM »
This remarkable freeze/melt cycle has been unfortunate but perhaps inevitable, putting us literally in uncharted waters with regards to massive climate change impacts.
This may be the intro to the Arctic pack's, if not our current civilization's epitaph.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:13:22 PM »
I meant just the loss of volume in the region of the CAB. This is considered the hardest ice to melt, so I often focus on it in my analysis. Your numbers are for the total volume loss for all regions.

Edit: in addition, my numbers were for only the 2nd half of July, while yours were for the whole month.

Yes, of course, I'm sorry for the mix-up. As I don't speak English very well I use an automatic translator, which is not very good and my attention is sometimes diverted from the essential. And I'm not talking about the misunderstandings... I'll try to be more attentive. :-[

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 04, 2020, 02:30:00 PM »
First of all big thanks to Wipneus as usual for providing PIOMAS data in a digestible format.
Looking at the most recent update, it continues the trends of the summer:
* CAB volume loss for the period shattered the record again (long held by 2007 for 2H July), losing 205 km3 more than 2012 and 262 km3 over 2019, but is still not at record low. Almost.
* Beaufort still high.
* Siberian seas still at record low.
* CAA and Chukchi still on the low side.
* Greenland Sea still on the high side.
* 2012 still has the upcoming August advantage and will need some effort to catch up.
* I still predict a record low volume due to the high energy received in July, and the way the ice looks on Worldview and AMSR. And I still can't justify it with the numbers, who are pointing to 2nd-3rd finish.

I will post some reginal charts and numbers later.

Hello Oren, first of all I would like to thank you for everything you are willing to share with us. You are doing a remarkable job just like Gerontocrat, Wipneus, Juan C. Garcia etc... (too numerous to mention them all here).
Could you explain to me how you arrive at a loss of volume for the year 2020 of 262 km3 greater than that of 2019? While I calculated (with the numbers provided by Wipneus here on this thread) a loss of 423 km3 more than in 2019. See my previous post.
6010-5587= 423
Where did I go wrong?
Thank you

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 04, 2020, 12:27:13 PM »
OK so if I understood correctly the volume of the ice has decreased by 5,587 km3 in July 2019 and by 6,010 km3 in 2020.

12,050-6,463 = 5,587 km3 in 2019.
12,530-6,520= 6,010 km3 in 2020

The trend for the end of August does not look very good to me.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 06:59:16 PM »
If that windlessness continues through August, then maybe the remaining thin ice will be spared above 80-85N. What are the odds of that though?
Very low I would say. There's way to much energy in the system, so I expect at least one more big storm. Probably two...

It's been a crazy year so far - as I predicted. And this is only the second melting season I'm following closely...  :-\ Can you imagine what will happen next year after the global economy completely collapses because nobody will be able to pay back their loans to the banks?  :-\

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 03, 2020, 06:52:41 PM »
Thanks a lot, I did mean NSIDC data using their regions.
I remind new readers Wipneus did not come up with "his" regions himself, these originated with a now-defunct website called Cryosphere Today,  CT.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:27:05 PM »
The Danes predict that by August 8, warm water will reach the North Pole.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:50:53 PM »

Daily sea ice extent increased by 92k. But the Arctic is not freezing, sea ice is melting.

The gif by aluminium and the University of Bremen concentration images show the massive rearrangement of the ice in the central seas of the Arctic Ocean.

I suggest we are seeing not so much a ridiculously early halt to sea ice loss, but more of a rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic.   

This from gerontocrat recently on the extent and area thread.
Extent increasing is scary, because the ice has nowhere to go but into warm surrounding waters and oblivion.

Is that an indication we could get a record low this year or a BOE!

I think very, very low possibility BOE, some possibilitiy of a record low, but more likely 2nd place, maybe even above.  2012 was a remarkable year, which could repeat, but when?
The history of this thread is littered with the shriveled carcasses of premature apocalyptic predictions. 

But what do I know?  My job is just rearranging the deckchairs...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 09:27:25 AM »
Sorry I haven't posted or replied to any PMs but ive been busy with real life work.

Check out the DMI 80N graphic I've never seen it like this.


If anyone has seen it this high before at anytime please post it, thank you

Apparently Friv you and I are the only ones shocked by this which surprises me!  Yes it is DMI, the data has some issues, what dataset does not, all that notwithstanding it is a long running series.  That up tick is a BIG DEAL and I do no recall seeing anything like that!  I see it as a very bad sign as the old maxim that DMI 80N temps are parked in a narrow summer band may be coming to an end.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 07:03:49 AM »
For what's it's worth, HYCOM shows an interesting forecast for north of Greenland in early August - a large gap opening up, larger than anything I've seen there before.
Also interesting to see how the "bulwark" of old and thick ice has shifted westwards, towards the Beaufort.

Accepted wisdom has been that the last of the thick ice would be somehow anchored to the coast at and to each side of the Lincoln Sea, something I've never been quite conviced of, and the current setup certainly does not seem to support the accepted view.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 28, 2020, 09:56:16 PM »
JNap, good evening,

I just gave it a try on ECMF after a 12 hour day of work and see that you're right. It lasts a lot longer than two days (which was forecasted 6 days ago). So it's mimicking the GAC12, though maybe not as 'deep' as then.
FOOW, great analysis, as ever! The models are fed with trends on the past. They miss the rapid changes. Some years ago, I studied a bit on the transition of warmth/energy through the Rossby waves. I'm just an amateur, but I feel this is a viable mechanism. I even remember a term: 'wave activity flux'. For what it's worth. Somebody may pick it up...
Meanwhile, NOAA daily composites illustrates the unusual temps between 20-26 July, compared to 2012. On 850, 925 and 1000 Mb. Relentless on the Siberian coast, from the CAA-Greenland and from the Atlantic. And topped by the warm, now gone, anticyclone over the Polar region.

D-Penguin, great illustration, the jet-stream seems to spin up the Beaufort Chaser. Same physics as in '12 with GAC!
It must have consequences

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: July 28, 2020, 10:55:33 AM »
This area interests SRS due to its broken geology that is also subsiding contrary to the rest of Greenland.
The area is question is NOT subsiding but is undergoing rapid uplift, see:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 27, 2020, 10:24:17 PM »
The SIPN median from the July report was 4.36 million km2.

Lowest NSIDC average for September was 3.57 in 2012.

For the ASIF, the most relevant poll is Juan's poll here :,3154.0.html

The mean of the ASIF predictions is 3.67.

So ASIF prediction is approximately 0.7 below the SIPN.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 27, 2020, 08:48:28 PM »
Usually, the NSIDC single day values are seeing without confidence. It is recommended to follow the NSIDC 5-day trailing average. But I decided to make an analysis with the single day values, just to try to understand how the Arctic sea ice is being hit by the storm.

It is interesting that according to NSIDC, almost all the regions lost extent and area. Only the Laptev increase on both, extent and area.

What I was expecting became true: the area figure doubles the lost that we have on extent.

It is the Central Arctic the one that receive the strongest hit on area and it is the Canadian Archipelago the one that had the biggest lost on both, extent and area. Chukchi, ESS, Beaufort and Greenland had also a kind of important lost on area.

It is 5-day trailing average.  :-[

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 08:36:07 AM »
As long as users post data ir's ok. Maybe not always useful but no harm. Thanks to all who make the effort.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2020, 05:49:59 AM »
Can people please just wait for JCG and Gerontocrat to do their things. It is always funny watching people try to jockey for the honorable position of daily data updater.

It clutters the thread, it doesn't look as nice or neat.

I say this gently, it is most typically new posters who do this. When I was new I was afraid to contribute to the main melting season threads. Still am for the most part. Read. Learn. Find a new way to look at data and then post here. Don't try to horn in by being 14 minutes earlier than JCG.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 05:28:57 AM »
OK, this is it.  This is our compact, unrubbled extent.  Our CAB Bastion if you will.

It's due north of Ellesmere.  The lower left hand corner is grounded on an island in the CAA.

To the left, it is bounded by the Beaufort, which *is* rubble, and the upper left hand corner is where the ESS and Chukchi melt in-situ are chewing into it.

Directly above, the Laptev ice boundary is chewing northward at as much as 50km/day, and will almost certainly be passing 85N before the end of this.

To the right, you have a combination of ice being rubbled, melting in situ as it is dumped into the Fram conveyor, or shoved into the emerging killing zone along the Atlantic front to the north of Svalbard and FJL.

This image is about 1.5 million km2.  There is far too little that will survive outside of it for my comfort.
Thanks. That is why I said that I don't see any "widespread" compaction. I understand equations and reliable data, but it is good to see these images and not just blindly follow data. If you use a phone everyday to get numbers but do not look to see for yourself, data can be accurate but misleading as to the overall state of the ice.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 12:28:30 AM »

now  Most of the ice pack is solid

2012 Most of the ice pack is not solid.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 20, 2020, 12:31:23 AM »
72 hours until we see what happens when low pressure system takes over the Arctic.  In my opinion we will see the most dramatic slow down in extent drop in history.  Largely because the recent drop has been unprecedented (so a drop even to normal is a very big drop), and also because such a strongly compacted ice pack will accentuate the slow impacts of a switch to cool and cloudy conditions.

A wrinkle in the forecast is that there is hints of a high pressure system building into the Arctic from the Atlantic side in around 7 days time.  At this stage it looks a long way from a return to the extreme melt conditions we have seen recently.
A large chunk of the "strongly compact" ice is under .5-.25M  in thickness, what and where is this illusive strong ice you are discussing?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 06:51:24 AM »
Wow, another 145k loss, and Bremen shows the Russian side is a complete disaster.

For those arguing compaction as the main driver of these losses, one wonders how much more compact the ice can get...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 18, 2020, 12:44:10 AM »
It is kind of funny to be so mesmerized by the plunging extent numbers, and yet they can be an indirect and sometimes counterintuitive representation of all that is going on.  The compaction of the icecap by the high helped send the extent numbers plunging, but that compaction probably helped preserve the ice.  So dropping extent can be, in a way, 'good'.  It was the increased solar radiation reaching the surface caused by the high that has done so much damage to the ice, and actual extent has little to do with that.

Paradoxically, one of the worst things that could happen is for a big and persistent low or similar weather system to arrive and scatter the ice.  Maybe that will occur, and let's hope it doesn't.  But if it does, it will either temporarily slow, or even reverse, the decline in extent numbers.  Thus an apparent hiatus in extent losses would be terrible news for the ice as it is sent out into the surrounding warm seas, and as warm, saline water is perhaps churned to the surface of the Arctic.  (And all this might be happening just as insolation is fading fast and bottom melt becomes paramount.)

I guess what is ironic to me is that, in the short term, extent losses can indicate almost the opposite of what they seem to imply.  In the longer term, of course, there is no argument, net loss of extent by September is an unequivocally bad thing. 

Sorry if all this is very obvious to all you experienced ice watchers out there ... had to get it off my chest.   Here's hoping the ice pack stays together...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:44:44 AM »
Well... some of the damage is already manifesting right now.  I am amazed anew every day.

Regardless of what happens from here on out, 2020 has carved out a deep new low range for Arctic sea ice for part of the year and will be one for the books.  In my appraisal this means it is already a very bad year for the ice.  Keep setting new lows for different days and sooner or later one of those days will be September 16th.  We definitely will never carve out new highs for any day of the year henceforth.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 06:01:49 AM »
The result could be storms at depth, size, and power we have never seen as humans.

Trying to push sub 900mb.

Bringing 75-115KT sustainable winds over huge parts of the Arctic.

Bringing massive swells and waves along a 2000 mile fetch slamming INTO Atlantic side ice.

Sounds pretty cinematic Friv, maybe we could collaborate on a film script sometime soon. I mean, not like today, but maybe tomorrow... or the day after.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 04:33:11 AM »
Its very likely that we will see cyclogenesis over the arctic basin at some point during the last part of July or early August.

Anyways I have ranted to long.

I had not read your posting before I posted mine.

IMO your posting is not a 'rant', it is absolutely relevant to the debate! Your knowledge applied to the current status of the Arctic Polar Vortex would provide the most valuable insight to what might be expected  over discreet periods of time during the melting season. Priceless! Thank you for the intuitive leap based on the science.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 04:19:25 AM »
RE[ The 2020 Melting Season

As we see more heat accumulate in the Indian Ocean and this is transported northwards, more snows fall in the high Himalayas, dragging down the snow line, and INCREASING the efficiency of the heat transport as we head deeper into the year. Basically, as we see more snow linger in high elevations and low latitudes, the enhanced baroclinic gradient is going to send more and more of the surrounding continental and oceanic heat (ever-more amplified by our ever-rising GHGs) northward into the primary polar cell, ultimately destroying it earlier and earlier each and every year. The other anomalous patches of continental snowfall in North America are having the same impact, IMO, and while the impact shifts regionally year over year it is now seemingly WORSENING as a whole which is becoming a driving contributor to Arctic amplification. "

"What starts outside of the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic."

IMVHO this posting by bbr2315 is the most significant posting made on this excellent Forum and absolutely belongs to this thread. (Oren - I do not agree with your opinion about the 'appropriateness' for the posting by bbr2315 in the 2020 Melting Season thread but thank goodness you decided to exercise your usual sound 'good judgement' and allowed it to stand.)

The succinct explanation provided for the exceptional weather during the current period of the 2020 Melting Season is not about 'snow' but it is about the 'Arctic Polar Vortex', its demise and the response of Arctic ice to the Arctic weather systems so created. 2020 is the first year to demonstrate so clearly that relationship between the Arctic ice and the Arctic Polar Vortex.

I do not see how the current melting season or any future melting season can be adequately discussed without reference to the Arctic Polar Vortex and its effect upon the Arctic weather systems that prevail at the time. How often do postings end ' all depends on the weather'? The question is, what does the weather depend upon?

To misquote Bill Clinton's famous Presidential campaign slogan 'It's all about the Arctic Polar Vortex you dummy!'

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 15, 2020, 05:53:06 PM »
I sent an email to NSIDC about their data. A quick reply!
Note they say problems with the last 2 days data. So maybe yesterday's posting on NSIDC data is a load of......

You have been warned.
Nic, Jul 15, 2020, 8:51 AM MDT:
Dear Matthew,

Thank you for contacting NSIDC. Thank you for catching this issue. We have been experience issues with ingesting the data used for the sea ice analysis for the past two days, and are currently performing planned maintenance. However, it isn't immediately obvious what caused discrepancies in previous months.

I've sent a note the Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis team, and I'll get back in touch with you shortly.

Best regards,

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 15, 2020, 04:33:01 AM »
This little bullseye I saw is amazing, but more so is the insane melt happening all over Greenland:


I have to catch up on Greenland.  Or maybe for the sake of my mental wellbeing I should not ...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 02:15:49 AM »
 ;D .. Hi P , you are not alone ..  ;)

 Happy Arctic Sea Ice Day to each and every one . May you all have an ice day  ;D b.c.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 14, 2020, 07:34:22 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs of the Russian Shore + the Chukchi

I like these graphs as they show how in summer these seas have been changed from icy deserts to open water with what must be inevitable climate change.

The shallow V-shape of the 1980's has changed to a U-shape, both widened and deepened as the years roll by, i.e. earlier, faster melt and later, even faster refreeze.

All these seas eventually completely freeze over. I always wonder when this will no longer be the case.

Thank you for the graphs and the crisp analysis, Gerontocrat.  Vivid representations of extraordinary change.  I like the V's to U's description -- memorable.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 07:53:12 AM »
I can't see totality.

I think it is truly impossible.

I think Mikey H is spot on. Good likelihood this year is setting up next year (or the year after) for "the spectacle" of BOE.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 06:34:46 AM »
Lesson from the past:  2011.

High pressure dominated early 2011 and by the 18th of July Jaxa ice extent was 377k sq km ahead of July 18th 2007, which was the record at the time.  Current conditions as at 13th July are now 420k ahead of the previous record year of 2012.  However in 2011 conditions changed dramatically and by the 22nd of July 2011 a low pressure system had taken over.  The lead by then had been cut to 206k and dropped further to be 101k behind 2007 by Aug 1, as low pressure conditions continued to dominate.  In the end 2011 narrowly failed to beat 2007 in Jaxa extent, but did roughly equal 2007 in area with one agency putting 2011 first for area and others second if I recall correctly.

Current forecasts suggest another week of high pressure domination and then a switch to low pressure which would make for a switch at roughly the same time as 2011.  However forecasts at this lead are not reliable, and I think forecasts have suggested a switch early in the second forecast week for a while now and have been delaying this switch.  On the other hand 2007 made its big surge in early July, so 2011 being ahead in later July was certainly an ominous sign.  In contrast 2012 made its big surge in early August.  If conditions do switch to low pressure dominated cloudy conditions in a week or two I'd suggest beating 2012 would become unlikely, and that strong melt conditions need to extend into maybe mid August.  On the other hand I'd say it would need nearly a miracle for melt this year to not beat 2nd position comfortably.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 10, 2020, 11:40:06 PM »
Arctic Ocean Changes Driven by Sub-Arctic Seas
Thanks vox_mundi. I struggle a bit with spatial alignment so I roughly overlaid the conceptual model of earlier/recent. Quite a conceptual push from the atlantic.

I feel a big Thanks is due to you for your tireless efforts across the whole site Gerontocrat!

Without your data getting my 'daily overview' of the world would be a much longer exercise but be it Arctic,Antarctic,Greenland,Global you're there in spades!!!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 02:52:06 AM »
I forgot one.
Is this still called a "Jet Stream"? Or do we start calling it the "Bubble Jet"?

Needs a click.
Large File!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 01:01:59 AM »
Maybe someone can answer this for me. With 2020 just about going lowest on record today, how come the NSIDC extent line has 2020 8th lowest? According to the NSIDC, 2020 is above 2010, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17 and 19 and whilst for some years the gap is small, in other years its quite a large difference especially with 2010 whilst JAXA has it effectively level, NSIDC has 2010 way ahead.

I know the NSIDC uses a 5 day average and the resolution is lower but we have never been above 2012 on JAXA yet the NSIDC has 2020 above 2012 for a good while now. I don't think I have seen JAXA and NSIDC looking so different before and are usually on the same page.

Well, one reason could be that NSIDC is not as good as JAXA to measure along the coast and gulfs. This is especially relevant now because many river outlets in Russia melted out record early, but the NSIDC extent does not pick up on this. You can see below one such example circled in red. This area is actually completely devoid of ice. But in some other years, like 2017, 2014, 2019, and 2011 out of the years you mentioned, there were still ice here. Yet NSIDC would report the same extent as now, unlike JAXA.

The NSIDC has commented in the past about false ice appearing on coastlines and they claim it makes very minimal difference to the extent graphs and also, every year has this problem.

It is a good question Paul.

I have started a new thread with links to an article which delves into the differences. Thread here:,3158.0.html

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 22, 2020, 07:02:08 PM »
I've read many messages here about anomalously thick ice against Svalbard, but I'm not seeing it.

I always had my doubts about that claim because I thought that this thick ice got flushed down the Fram a long time ago. But I didn't have any prove for that claim, so I didn't say anything about it. I think I have prove now with a clear view on the ice there. This ice doesn't look very thick at all if you ask me...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 22, 2020, 12:46:49 AM »
Is this same system pumping heat onto the ice?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 18, 2020, 07:57:25 AM »
A very interesting article in the Guardian today. Climate crisis: alarm at record breaking heat wave in Siberia.
Accordingly, May temperatures seen in north-west Siberia would be likely to happen just once in 100,000 years without human-caused global heating.

Interesting indeed - and I particularly liked the following (emphasis mine):

Temperatures in the polar regions are rising fastest because ocean currents carry heat towards the poles and reflective ice and snow is melting away.

In this area, this situation has been the last six months.

It's just... wow ---> Western Siberia temperature anomalies averaged since December. Quite the extreme event!

[Data from @ECMWF  ERA5 reanalysis]

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 18, 2020, 04:05:23 AM »
This storm does protects the Arctic from peak insolation right now, but that's not going to save the ice this year if this storm becomes any larger. It'll destroy a lot of ice and open up to ocean to warming even after peak insolation. After rain there's always the sun...

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 14, 2020, 05:29:59 PM »
I took the monthly extent value for May 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) May extent is now 13.13 M km². May 2020 had an average extent of 12.36 M km², which is 0.77 M km² less than that long-term average.
The more or less parallel to normal development in May 2020 kept the actual value above the red long-term linear trend line by 0.35 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this May should have been at 12.01 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has thus further decreased by one digit (-0.0549 instead of -0.0550).

See attached graph.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 23, 2020, 12:49:18 AM »
I was doing some reading up on Wrangel Island and was amazed at how pretty it is. I wish I could go and camp there for like 2 weeks and enjoy the solace and solitude. Plus there would for sure be no worries about covid-19, but a polar bear would replace the viral danger.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 04, 2020, 05:35:51 PM »
V.A.K, please refer such questions and discussions to the season predictions thread:,3072.0.html

Pages: [1]