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Messages - bill kapra

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 12:47:13 PM »
worldview aqua modis, mclure strait to lincoln sea, jul6 with noaa bathymetry. All the fractures are sheared. click to run. (3.5MB)
Very little compressive strength shown on hycom.
edit:Added bathymetry scale

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:56:51 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 June 2019 (5 day trailing average)6,952,034  km2
Total Area         
 6,952,034    km2      
-390,003    km2   <   2010's average.
-421,409    k   <   2018
-1,036,130    k   <   2000's average.
Total Area Change   -121    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -9    k   loss
Central Seas__   -96    k   loss
Other Seas___   -15    k   loss
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -14    k   loss
CAA_________   -8    k   loss
East Siberian__   -16    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -19    k   loss
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______   -21    k   loss
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss

Area loss 121k, 16K MORE than the 2010's average loss of 105 k on this day.

Total area 3rd lowest[/b], (170 k LESS than 2016, and 122k greater than 2012 (and 93k greater than 2010).  2012 is the front runner as regards area again.

Other Stuff
A messy picture but mostly unchanged. GFS showing temperature anomalies in a narrow range of +0.8 to +1.4 degrees celsius disguising movement of high and low temperatures over the land around the Arctic,  in contrast again with a mostly modest +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean for most of the time.

The CAA, Baffin Bay and Hudson Bay are mostly warm, with periods of warmth and cold in Western Canada and Alaska. High +ve anomalies most of the time in Central Siberia and Western Siberia contrasting with long periods of cooler weather over land bordering the ESS;

The GFS 5 day wind outlook from GFS still show persistent strong southerly winds from The North Pacific entering the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. This outlook also shows persistent even stronger winds from Western Siberia travelling across the Arctic into the North Atlantic.

A complicated picture inadequately described above.

A cliff or not a cliff
We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until late July.
Area losses have ticked up a lot in the last week. Being a five day trailing average, these above average area losses will continue for 2 or 3 days at minimum.

If this rate of loss is continued, in less than a week 2019 could/would/should/will/will not (delete as applicable) be in pole position again.

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