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Messages - Iain

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Greenland and Arctic Circle / Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« on: March 01, 2019, 05:04:30 PM »
Floes entering Nares Strait take between a week and two month (plus?) to go the 500 km to Baffin Bay (when the Strait is open).  The arch around the Lincoln Sea Polynya has been stable for a couple of weeks, basically, so (basically) all the mobile thick ice ("old") in the Lincoln Sea has now flushed into Nares Strait.  The last bits are circled in the image below (DMI image dated 2019-02-27). 

So, will the 'old' ice that recently entered Nares Strait get to Baffin Bay before new 'old' ice enters the Strait?

"Yes" will be correct if the current Lincoln Polynya arch holds on long enough (How long will be enough?) or a bridge forms in the Kennedy Channel above these circled bits of 'old' ice before more recently mobilized thick ice gets to the Strait during March or April 2019 [edit: and no southern bridge forms …].

"No" is split. 
  • Either the Lincoln Polynya arch breaks soon enough so that at least one floe of thick ice (much older than the two-week old ice currently in the polynya) enters Nares S. before the circled bits pass beyond Smith Sound or
  • these circled bits get stuck in Nares Strait for the rest of the winter due to the formation of an ice bridge (arch) downstream (at which point all the ice in Lincoln Sea will be 'old' enough to count as 'old'
"Maybe so" will be correct if a southern bridge holds the circled bits for 50 days or more, but a northern bridge holds back all Lincoln Sea ice until after the southern bridge breaks and all the circled bits flow into Baffin Bay.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 10:46:15 PM »
NSIDC puts the (at least 15%) ice extent below 2012...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2018, 02:08:14 AM »
In the summer, we'd have called such temp anomalies a blow torch and I don't remember a one... Now we have a month long blow torch.  2016 was jaw dropping as it was

Eco-author: surface temperatures in the arctic have an upper limit very near to 0C as long as there is ice to melt.  You can see this in the DMI 80N temperature anomaly charts.  Even though 80N looks at such a small area, it is generally true of the Arctic as a whole.

2018 is joining a group of catastrophic years in the Arctic, 2007, 2012, 2016, although I fear it will be overshadowed by 2019 with this setup.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 11:00:06 PM »
Yearly comparison of HYCOM CICE thickness for July 1st (June 30th on 2017 for the nearest date with data). Click to animate.

The main remarkable feature continues to be the thickness of ice along the Barents sea into the basin proper. The lack of transpolar drift associated with this also appears to be showing up as thicker ice along the Siberian side of the CAB as well. It appears that 2016 shows similar behavior but is less extreme both in terms of where thickness is lost and gained.

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