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Messages - Forest Dweller

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Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 26, 2018, 05:00:50 PM »
FD - the rhinos are safe - extinction postponed for another day ...

Tsunami hits Sunda Strait Beach, What is the fate of Javan rhinos? - (use Google Translate)

Mamat Rahmat, Head of the Ujung Kulon National Park (TNUK), confirmed that the tsunami had reached the national park area. ... "Estimates in the field, water reaches 20-50 meters from the shoreline," ... Mamat stated that the condition of the Javan Rhino ( Rhinoceros sondaicus) was safe after the tsunami.

Rhinos gathered in the middle of the forest and the southern edge of the coast. While those [beaches] affected by the tsunami are in the north - the Sumur Subdistrict, Pandeglang Regency, Banten, which is the entrance to TNUK, is the area directly affected by the disaster.

Infrared camera monitoring shows that the rhinos spent most of their time in areas with an elevation of between 9-15 meters and distances to the coastline of 412-855 meters.

Monitoring the condition of the area affected by the tsunami was carried out directly by WWF-Indonesia National Rhino Officer Ridwan Setiawan , while evacuating the communities around Ujung Kulon.


Mount Etna Has First 'Flank Eruption' In Over a Decade

Europe's most active volcano, Mount Etna in Sicily, erupted on Monday, with officials reporting more than 130 earthquakes of up to 4.3 in magnitude.

The Mount Etna observatory said lava had spewed from a new fracture near its south-eastern crater.

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 23, 2018, 05:45:06 PM »
It's possible that the rhinos may have sensed the tsunami and gone to higher ground - if available.

The 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami suggests animals may sense the infrasound from these events ...
... Some 230,000 people across fourteen coastal countries died, but, in the aftermath, locals and rescuers in certain areas noted a conspicuous absence of animal casualties. In the following weeks and months, stories emerged of some animals acting oddly just before the tsunami hit: Eyewitnesses in Sri Lanka and Thailand told of elephants that trumpeted before seeking higher ground, dogs that refused to go outside, and flamingos that suddenly abandoned low-lying nesting areas.
An article from 2017 describes the scenario your suggesting:


... In the largest survey to date, researchers placed motion-activated cameras at nearly 200 locations throughout the park. After analyzing the large amount of video collected, they determined that only 62 Javan rhinos remain in the wild. These few live in low-lying areas that could be inundated by a tsunami, researchers write in a study describing their findings, published in the journal Conservation Letters .

... The researchers conclude that a tsunami that made it to 10 meters, or 33 feet, above sea level would threaten 80 percent of the rhinos' territory. 
... The park also happens to sit about 50 miles from one of the world’s most fearsome volcanoes: Anak Krakatoa. It is the “offspring” of the Krakatoa volcano which erupted in 1883, the most cataclysmic in modern history, the reverberations of which were felt around the world. Anak Kratoa, which means “childs of Krakatoa,” has been growing from the destroyed remnants of this volcanic island ever since. If it erupts before 2040 scientists estimate it could create tsunamis that reach up to nearly 70 feet above sea level. If it erupts after then, the waves could rise to heights of almost 100 feet.

For this reason, a second population of Javan rhinos needs to be established to increase the likelihood of their survival, Gerber says.

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 23, 2018, 09:00:02 AM »
Krakatoa Volcano (Sunda Strait, Indonesia): Possible Major Eruption With Ash to 55,000 ft Following Deadly Tsunami

A major explosive eruption may have occurred at the volcano earlier this morning. VAAC Darwin spotted a large cloud, possibly an ash plume from the eruption reaching approx. 55,000 ft (15 km) altitude and drifting S and SW.

The current eruptive phase of the volcano seems to be in fact rather strong. A new lava flow is reaching the sea and strong explosive activity, likely pulsating lava fountains are occurring at the summit vent.


Indonesia Tsunami Hits Sunda Strait After Krakatoa Eruption

Volcanologist Jess Phoenix told the BBC that when volcanoes erupt, hot magma pushes underground and can displace and break through colder rock. This can trigger a landslide.

But because part of Krakatoa is underwater, she said "instead of just causing a landslide, you get an undersea landslide which pushes water as it moves." This can then cause a tsunami.

“When the flanks [side] of volcanoes collapse, or pyroclastic flows enter the ocean, they can also create waves that become tsunamis.

“Flank collapse may have generated the biggest tsunamis on earth (excluding the very rare ones from asteroid impacts into the ocean).”

Science / Re: Early Anthropocene
« on: October 15, 2018, 10:20:30 PM »
Move evidence that Ruddiman (2003) roughly knew what he was talking about:

Title: "Pre-industrial anthropogenic CO2 emissions: How large?"

Extract: "Fifteen years after publication of Ruddiman (2003), the early anthropogenic hypothesis is still debated, with relevant evidence from many disciplines continuing to emerge. Recent findings summarized here lend support to the claim that greenhouse-gas emissions from early agriculture (before 1850) were large enough to alter atmospheric composition and global climate substantially."

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 18, 2018, 01:35:02 PM »
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 9/18/18, 1:16 AM
Interstate 40 -- Wallace, North Carolina
Before and after Florence
Images below.

919 risk pool (@oneduran)
9/18/18, 1:49 AM
@EricHolthaus trying to get word out in Piedmont NC communities about airdrops of supplies occurring from RDU near Raleigh to severely impacted communities like Lumberton & Wilmington, this thread summarizes what organizers on-site are being told is desperately needed.

Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill: #HurricaneFlorence organizers with A JUST FLORENCE RECOVERY/ OPERATION AIRDROP are coordinating multiple flights daily bringing hurricane relief supplies from RDU into severely impacted areas like #Lumberton and  #WilmingtonNC

They are in touch with folks in those communities, who have stated there is a desperate, urgent need for infant formula, especially in #Lumberton. Clean water is accessible, and liquid is heavy, so powdered formula is preferable.

Other needs are for disposable baby bottles with liners (due to lack of sterilization facilities) and diaper rash cream (due to humidity combined with limited washing facilities). Use the 'no parking' area in front of the building where supplies are being held for unloading.

Non-perishable foods & basic first aid supplies are also urgently needed so please donate what you can, but a top priority right now for Lumberton is powdered infant formula. Bottled water is not needed since it’s too heavy to fly efficiently. Thanks for helping out & sharing. ...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 13, 2018, 02:59:46 AM »
Forget FEMA.  Waffle House is on the case!
(These small, sit-down restaurants are known for getting back up and running — even if only partially — after major storms.  FEMA has actually used them as a guide to know where conditions are worst!)

Waffle House News (@WaffleHouseNews)
9/11/18, 4:08 PM
The @WaffleHouse Storm Center is activated and monitoring #Florence. Plan ahead and be safe.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: August 17, 2018, 05:35:56 PM »
I saw the saddest thing ever this morning. Someone threw away this little grill, for some reason it was upsetting.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: August 08, 2018, 03:14:23 PM »
The Forum System has made me a Governor. Time for a confession.

When I reached the ripe age of 65, I became aware that I was supposed to be an old man.

What to do? What sort of old man was I going to be. I liked the idea of being a "Grumpy Old Man in the Gallery" - "the new generation - rubbish. It was so much better when I was young".
So I decided to be a member of the Gerontocracy, i.e. a Gerontocrat.

To my amazement, neither Google or MSN had anyone using "gerontocrat", so I took it.

Now I am a Governor - beware, you horrible lot. "My way, or take the highway - right or wrong".

1 A state, society, or group governed by old people.

Example sentences

‘The author was, of course, the first to depict a totalitarian gerontocracy.’

‘This country's gerontocracy is not so much kinder and gentler as paralytic.’

‘Workers will resent handing over their entire paycheques to fund the gerontocracy and then have to suffer through fogeyish easy listening classics on every radio station.’

‘It's no surprise that American media organizations are gerontocracies.’

‘This person could have represented our interests in the raving gerontocracy that is the city government.’

‘It is easy to depict them as a complacent gerontocracy immured in its certainties and unwilling to rethink the future.’

‘In the gerontocracy that was early America, the Puritans held that living to a ripe old age was a sign from above.’

‘This society is a gerontocracy based on obedience to and respect for those who are older than oneself.’

1.1mass noun Government based on rule by old people.
Example sentences

‘We have to admit that stubborn gerontocracy has been a major obstacle to reforming politics due to the aged politicians' obstinacy and narrow-mindedness.’

‘the village's aged leader is portrayed as a dictatorial gerontocrat’

You can ignore each other as much as you like, but putting Oren on ignore is just plain stupid.

bbr2314, you can post in the appropriate thread at the end and beginning of each melting season an update on your theory and how the data is looking. I won't tolerate any more posts anywhere else, so you'll have to find some other forum for your weekly updates on something that takes decades.

Back on topic now.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 04, 2018, 03:30:37 AM »
Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)
8/3/18, 5:20 AM
Historians will look back at page 9 of today's Times with great interest.
The combination of stories by @whippletom @emilygosden @bwebster135 et al is quite something...
Image below.  Links to the articles are in the twitter replies to the above link.

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: August 03, 2018, 08:14:26 PM »
An orca named J35 has been carrying her dead calf, pushing it with her head, for more than a week off the Pacific Northwest coast. The sad spectacle is a prime example, and confirmation, of the complex emotional lives of these sophisticated cetaceans, experts say.

Orca’s Death Vigil Shows Complexity of Killer Whale Emotions
A Pacific Northwest orca likely bonded closely with her calf before it died, which could help explain her record-breaking emotional sojourn.
Balcomb points to a lack of food as the culprit. “We have long demonstrated that these fish-eating whales are getting skinnier and skinnier, and the death rate is increasing,” he writes on the center’s website.

“Whales in this endangered population are dependent upon Chinook salmon for their primary food source. Unfortunately, Chinook salmon are also endangered,” he adds.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: August 02, 2018, 07:37:11 PM »
Maybe the record breaking temperatures in Death valley will boost eco tourism?

They’ve already had to ask people to stop trying to fry eggs on the pavement. ::)

 “Some people do not belong in the wild.”

Death Valley National Park to visitors: Stop frying eggs on the ground

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 31, 2018, 04:02:55 PM »
Yeah, same here; I live near the largest 'forest' in the Netherlands, but it's all sand where it's growing on, so it's extremely dry. Lot's of small fires in the region along the roads/train tracks. All the heath is dried out and a ticking time bomb. Too often cigarettes thrown away by people...

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 31, 2018, 01:12:34 AM »
Is that a fire in the distance on the hills?

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 28, 2018, 07:26:36 PM »

On Thursday, the record leaped to 27.7°C.
And yesterday, it rocketed to 29.8°C, over 2 full degrees warmer than any day before!
Terrifying, even.”

Said the human, as he scurried away to find a air conditioned room and a cool drink of water.

Too bad we can't hear the screams of pain and death from the flora and fauna.

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: July 27, 2018, 11:49:08 AM »
Once upon a time I lived in Lydbrook in the Forest of Dean

Beavers released in Forest of Dean as solution to flooding

Hope is that dams built by pair of beavers will hold back water and improve biodiversity

Four hundred years after the beaver was hunted to extinction in the UK, two of the mammals have been reintroduced on government land in an English forest as part of a scheme to assess whether they could be a solution to flooding.

Two Eurasian beavers were released on Tuesday into their new lodge within a large penned-off section of the Forest of Dean in Gloucestershire. The hope is that the animals will build dams and create ponds on Greathough Brook, which feeds into the River Wye, and slow the flow of water through the steep-sided, wooded valley at times of torrential rainfall.

In 2012 the villages of Lydbrook and Upper Lydbrook were badly flooded. Hundreds of thousands of pounds  on conventional schemes such as replacing drains to try to keep the communities dry and safe.

The government hopes that introducing the beavers into a 6.5-hectare (16-acre) enclosure on Forestry Commission land will help hold back the waters in a more natural way and improve biodiversity.

Should the three-year scheme prove successful, beavers could be introduced in other areas susceptible to flooding.

Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: July 13, 2018, 02:09:37 PM »
Drought in Ireland reveals old “henge” monument

Ireland's heatwave reveals amazing Newgrange discovery |

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 10, 2018, 02:00:07 AM »
Great Salmon Escape Threatens to Taint Chile Fish Farm Industry
A massive salmon "spill" at a fish farm in southern Chile last week is once again tainting an industry that earned the country more than $4 billion last year.

About 900,000 salmon escaped from a Marine Harvest ASA farm during a storm on July 5, according to the Bergen, Norway-based company. The fish are not fit for consumption, Marine Harvest said in a press release, and the company is trying to recapture them.

Chile’s salmon industry was already under attack for the use of hundreds of tons of antibiotics every year and allegations that the dumping of dead fish in the past has fueled algae blooms that damage the local fishing industry. The escaped salmon are a non-native species to southern Chile and could harm other fish stocks, while their decomposition adds to ammonia in the water, potentially fueling a fresh outbreak of algae bloom, Greenpeace Chile Oceans Coordinator Estefania Gonzalez said.

"The scale of the event is such that it threatens the biodiversity of the region, and we’re very worried," Gonzalez said. "The industry has expanded in a very aggressive manner in places that need to be dedicated to conservation -- it’s a chemical bomb."

Marine Harvest said it would minimize the possible environmental impact of the escape, and try to recapture as many of the fish as possible.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 08, 2018, 09:25:42 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.
I think that the first ice free year (from the extrapolation of volume data it should happen around 2025 ± 2 years) will be extremely spectacular because then the whole world will see that we are in deep trouble concerning climate change. I also believe that the distribution of heat, wind, air masses and ocean currents will change when there is (almost) no ice left in the Arctic Ocean.
The problem then is: It will be too late for a turnaround to a less warmer world...

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: July 06, 2018, 05:23:57 PM »
Map of Arctic wells by 2015 year. Well-seen absence of wells in the Kara Sea, the East Siberian Sea and the Chukchi Sea (major part of the Arctic shelf).

Consequently, all estimates of the stocks of frozen greenhouse gases in the Arctic are very inaccurate.
Pardon me but  am totally confused - Arctic wells? What exactly is referred to by this? A link to the origin of that map would help a lot.

Arctic Drilling Existing Wells - Royal Dutch Shell Investor Presentation

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: June 10, 2018, 06:19:11 AM »
Never considered myself as intelligent, I think stepping on the brakes would be an appropriate response to an imminent threat that would snuff you out forever.

Individuals usually change through anxiety and that's mostly due to fear for change. I have read about a priest who seriously suggested that approach to create action regarding climate change. Popular suggestion? Nope. How to? Don't know, maybe ask that priest or some psychologist, but anxiety due to change, will come in some form either way.

Other than that, we better be very careful and smart about how and what we build to keep emissions as low as possible.

There's still no perpetuum mobile and everything we build today creates GHG emissions.
Flooring it here wouldn't be intelligent, unless you have an airplane.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 09, 2018, 01:12:52 PM »
This Earther journalist is paying attention:

A New Arctic Cyclone Could Be Among the Most Powerful On Record

Weather watchers may be more preoccupied of late with storms popping off in the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific, but a very unusual cyclone also spun up over the Arctic this week—and it could spell more bad news for the region’s ailing sea ice.

The Arctic is no stranger to cyclones, but the latest no-name storm, which emerged in the Kara sea north of Siberia, has garnered attention both for its size and timing. The storm’s central pressure (a measure of its strength) bottomed out Thursday at about 966 millibars, placing it par with the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012, one of the most extreme summertime storms in recent memory. That storm reached a minimum central pressure 963-966 millibars, depending on which analysis you trust.

The new storm’s occurrence in June is also noteworthy. Big cyclones like this don’t normally start hitting the Arctic until late summer. The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 spun up in August as did a major storm in 2016.

“Preliminarily, this storm could rank in the Top 10 for Arctic Cyclones in June as well as for the summer (June through August) in strength,” Steven Cavallo, a meteorologist at the University of Oklahoma, told Earther via email.

Xiangdong Zhang, a scientist at the International Arctic Research Center who specializes in Arctic cyclones, cited a few factors responsible for the storm’s formation, including low sea ice cover in the North Atlantic which has increased the amount of heat in the atmosphere, a strong temperature gradient between land and sea, and the stratospheric polar vortex, an area of low pressure just above the storm.

“The downward intrusion of this polar vortex intensified [the] storm,” Zhang told Earther via email.

Read the rest here.

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: June 03, 2018, 12:57:07 AM »
“Feels like” temperatures in the upper 60’s (~19°C) in Anchorage, Alaska.

“It was noticeably warm to just about everyone today...even the bull moose in our yard. The big boy found a shady spot to pant it out this afternoon. Maybe he’ll be back tomorrow and Sunday with more sunny weather expected. Check out your local forecast. #AKwx ”
Short video of very large moose at the link.

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: June 02, 2018, 07:40:00 PM »
Reindeer crisis in Siberia:

This whole Siberian wildlife & anthrax affair is pretty darn crazy.
When the first outbreak took place the Russians thought they could just incinerate the heck out of the tundra and failed.
Another outbreak took place.
Now it seems they have the illusion of being able to vaccinate every animal and the herders say it's killing them.
Interestingly, the previous anthrax problems 70 years ago took place during an exceptionally warm period and warming/thawing of permafrost is associated with increased chances of such diseases popping up, even long forgotten ones.
Meanwhile the ambitious work to clone and bring back prehistoric species and establish Pleistocene Park goes the 6th mass extinction of extant species...bonkers!

It's an interesting article and a fascinating subject.
Anthrax spores can persist in the soil in temperate regions for years.
In frozen permafrost, I wouldn't be surprised if they could remain viable for decades, maybe centuries.  Melting permafrost therefore presents bona fide biological hazards.

The current Russian vaccines for anthrax use live attenuated spores, both human and veterinary versions.  Live-attenuated vaccines, in general, tend to produce strong, lost-lasting immunity, sometimes with a risk of higher side effect rates.

The herders' claim that the vaccine is causing widespread deaths among stressed animals strikes me as plausible.  More biology detail here:
Russian vaccines against especially dangerous bacterial pathogens

Consequences / Re: 2018 ENSO
« on: May 25, 2018, 04:29:05 AM »
NOAA predicts a better than even chance of El Nino developing in 2019. Story and links to the studies:

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 24, 2018, 03:28:03 PM »
Thus far, 2018 has been roughly paralleling the melt years of 2009, 11, and 15.  Those years finished 11th, 4th, and 5th lowest minima respectively, after reaching 10th, 5th, and 3rd highest maxima.  That pace, should it continue, would place 2018 at 4th lowest.
For me, quasi-statistical estimations based on graph morphology  like this have failed miserably every time I've made one.  Based on that, the only guess I'll hazard at this juncture is the season will finish somewhere between 1st  and 10th lowest minima. 😁

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: May 18, 2018, 05:54:55 PM »
Forest Dweller, I'm glad to see your post because it touches on a lot of my own feelings. When I look at the graph of CO2 and see the spike starting in the Industrial Revolution, it's impossible for me to conclude anything other than that this entire era has been one enormous historical error. One way to correct it would be for our Western societies to admit that we have made a mistake. This would involve admitting that the Indigenous peoples we displaced here in North America were right all along however, making it unlikely such a recognition of our error will ever take place at the deep level it needs to in order for our practices to truly change. The lack of recognition of how deep the errors in our thinking go leads to things like sustainable development, the have cake and eat it approach. We need a philosophical revolution similar to the Enlightenment, which will lead to a new ethic that values nature. Changes in practices can only follow from a change in thinking, and we are still not there yet despite everything you hear.

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: April 23, 2018, 02:15:16 PM »
We are now looking at extinction big-time.

Extracts below:-

One in eight bird species is threatened with extinction, global study finds

Report on the state of the world’s birds reveals a biodiversity crisis driven by intensive farming, with once-common species such as puffins and snowy owls now at risk

In all, 74% of 1,469 globally threatened birds are affected primarily by farming. Logging, invasive species and hunting are the other main threats.

“Each time we undertake this assessment we see slightly more species at risk of extinction – the situation is deteriorating and the trends are intensifying,” said Tris Allinson, senior global science officer for BirdLife International, which produced the report. “The species at risk of extinction were once on mountaintops or remote islands, such as the pink pigeon in Mauritius. Now we’re seeing once widespread and familiar species – European turtle doves, Atlantic puffins and kittiwakes – under threat of global extinction.”.....

.....According to the report, at least 40% of bird species worldwide are in decline, with researchers blaming human activity for the losses. After farming, logging is a key factor in declines of 50% of the most globally endangered species, followed by invasive species (39%), hunting and trapping (35%), climate change (33%) and residential and commercial development (28%). The illegal killing of birds – usually because of traditional hunting – results in an estimated 12 to 38 million individual birds dying or being taken each year in the Mediterranean region alone.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: March 09, 2018, 08:45:16 AM »
Europe’s beetle species plummet as trees disappear

"A new report by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) finds nearly 18 percent of saproxylic beetles are threatened with extinction in Europe. That number goes up to almost 22 percent for the EU as a whole."

"Of Europe’s threatened species, the 2018 report finds five are critically endangered, up from two in 2010."

"Why are these beetles declining? According to the IUCN, it’s because Europe’s trees are disappearing."
Logging, wood harvesting, urbanization, tourism development and an increasing frequency in wildfires...

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: March 08, 2018, 12:09:12 AM »
Only an crackpot would believe in 6K warming till 2028. But what am I saying, also only a crackpot would believe in extinction of the entire human race till 2030. My friend, get horror movies that do not falsely pretend factuality, there are good ones with better visual effects than a doomsday prophet who lost his marbles.
Do you still stand by this ridiculously optimistic view, plinius?

If a 76% decline of insects was observed in 27 years in German nature reserves, the ‘decline’ would reach 100% in 35.5 years (conservatively, ignoring ecosystem collapse feedbacks). Meaning *all* insects in these nature reserves could be gone by 2027. Oh, and plants are in decline too. These are all assuming linear decline rates, while all we observe is exponential rates of change. That’s not good for human survival prospects.

If 60 percent of the world’s fish, birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles have disappeared in the last 45 years, wouldn’t the remaining 40% also disappear in the coming 30 years? We’re not significantly changing that course of events, are we? And wouldn’t we, humans, then be part of those remaining 40%? If not: What bees do we expect pollinate our crops? Are we going to create sufficient artificial biospheres in time for it to actually function as a stable fake-earth, a replacement habitat? Do we know enough to get the details right? Where are we getting the resources and funding for that? Who gets to go inside that fake-earth when wet-bulb temperatures or radiation levels become too high? We can’t shut down all our nuclear facilities in time for it not to cause extinction level dosages worldwide, can we? There’s no miracle cure for thyroid cancer, or protection of the water-column against cesium-137 and iodine-131. So, you may well be able to hide and survive a little longer, but not more than a couple of years until the cancer kicks in.

We have built a life of growth and prosperity, with ridiculous energy usage patterns, based on finite (and soon-to-max-out) resources with no equal replacement in sight. This is uncharted territory, and the fact that generations have experienced the fossil-fueled upswing holds no predictive power over our future. Just because growth has been thematic does not mean it will always be there. The failure of most people to treat this possibility seriously is disheartening, because it prevents meaningful planning for a different future. We can all hope for new technologies to help us. But this problem is too big to rely on hope alone, and in any case, no practical technology can keep growth going indefinitely.

Let's, optimistically, assume we'll have a year round ice-free Arctic (ignoring Greenland) in 2024, which seems entirely plausible considering what the jet-streams seem to be doing lately. Do you have any idea what that will do to sub-sea permafrost?
It adds up. And, according to Semiletov and Shakhova:
"For the permafrost, the past three decades is not a huge period of time, because the processes, the consequences of which we are studying right now and have to deal with, started long long ago. This was triggered by natural warming associated with replacement of the cold climate epoch with the warm interglacial period and followed by permafrost inundation by sea water. Scientists agree that submerged permafrost would eventually start degrading, but how soon and at what pace this degradation would occur became the major point of disagreement between them.
It was suggested by some scientists that subsea permafrost would keep its integrity for millennia, which means that in the areas submerged less than 1000 years ago (as we investigated in our study) it should not have occurred yet. Our study proved that not only has it already occurred, but it has been progressing to higher rates, which have almost doubled since this degradation started.
It is most likely that we are now dealing with the consequences of when natural warming is enhanced with anthropogenic warming, and together they are accelerating the pace of natural processes. This appears to be continuing the processes of permafrost degradation at levels that we have never observed before."

You do realize that methane has 34 x the CO2 equivalent GWP over a 100 year span? We're already at 1840 ppb total column CH4. This used to never be higher than 800 ppb for the past 800000 years. This is a new IR bounce blanket trapping even more heat than CO2 and H2O are already doing.
Either way, assuming it takes about 2 years more before enough CH4 has left the clathrates and other frozen carbon storage locations to make enough of an impact, we could reach +4Celsius above baseline around ~2027. That's not going to bring equilibrium for cold spots anywhere on the planet. It basically means stormy warm moist weather everywhere, too little water in the ground and only artificially grown crops remaining. Trying to feed 8 billion humans is not going to work, in 2027.


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