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Messages - Glen Koehler

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 25, 2020, 12:52:51 AM »
Here is the Oct 23rd situation. Panoply makes a quite decent no-click map out of GHRSST data with a little help from AMSR2_AWI, OsiSaf and Gimp. Click to see at full resolution of the data source. Note this is SSTfnd, not skin or subskin temperatures. The contour lines correspond to tick mark bins in the palette.

What this is saying is the open water is far too warm from the surface down to 10m depth to even be talking about ice forming without really cold air. Right now, the 2m air temperature at 85º on the 140th meridian connecting the NSI to the North Pole is -2ºC. Please remind me to make a new map when it is has been -35ºC for a couple weeks!

Late fall temperatures seen by the Polarstern:
https://www.awi.de/fileadmin/user_upload/MET/PolarsternCoursePlot/psobsedat.html


20201023000000-OSPO-L4_GHRSST-SSTfnd-Geo_Polar_Blended_Night-GLOB-v02.0-fv01.0.nc

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 23, 2020, 04:53:09 PM »
Have you seen the snow extent growth over Siberia and Western Canada? Anything to comment or you only rejoice on the bad feedbacks?
...
apart from this, the weather is about to become propitious for a quick rebound of sea ice next week.

This seems like an emotional type response, especially as a reply to such an informative post which did not actually feature any rejoicing...

The previous posts were an actual attempt at figuring out some of the extent of the damage done.

A quick rebound next week would already be late but both recent comments in this thread and in the SIA&E thread hint that the it might not be quick.

You are thinking too much about the area/extent (so 2D) while ignoring the 3D problems like the stall in TPD.

Quote
In other words, 2021 and 2022 could be rebound years as probable as big melt years. I don’t see the doom scenario here (more in line with the scientific consensus of 2040+)

In case you missed it we are discussing what we see. Oh and i think that scientific consensus might have shifted a bit...

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 23, 2020, 08:41:20 AM »
What I am trying to bring up is that extent by itself is only an indication of when ice thickening can possibly begin, and with the current extreme delay in the Asian sea ice extent, the ice growth in thickness is being delayed. While historically some areas of the Asian seas have had slow growth in extent, 2020 is the first year on record (as far as I know) that will likely still have an ice free NE passage on Nov 1. (And not just dodging ice, but wide a open sea lane.) The fear is that if this continues much longer even with eventual universal 100% extent on the Asian side, that first year ice will not have a chance for a 'normal' gain in thickness. Instead of >1M ice, much of the Asian sea ice could end the freezing season in a very fragile state leading to much earlier breakup and melt in 2021. Already basically the whole of the Asian side has lost a month of thickness growth, where in previous years a fairly large percentage of those seas had already started that growth.

It is a rough estimate, but if you use the correlation of Freezing Degrees Day (FDD) with ice thickness, you need ~5500 FDD to go to 2m first year ice, and ~3500 FDD to go to 1.5 meters. October is usually worth ~300 to ~400 FDD in the Arctic, so it can make a significant dent into the ice growth.
To give some more numbers, for Ostrov kotel'nyj for example. Mean temperature from 1st of October to 30th of April over the last 10 years (2010-2019) was -20.8°C, which is about 4400 - 4500 FDD. If you count from the 1st of November, this leads to 4100 - 4200 FDD. And if you ignore November and start the ice thickening the 1st of December, it makes only 3800 - 3900 FDD. This is ignoring the risk that oceanic heat flux could be strong enough this winter to weaken this correlation. If ice growth does not start in a hurry on the Siberian side, the winter would probably not be able to fully erase the memory of this melting season. Which is a great peril, as up to the last years, winter was always cold and long enough to at least bring Arctic back to some kind of a "2m FYI" state, helping to stabilize the system.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2020, 07:07:20 PM »
I know nothing, but I'd say that low pressure = clouds = less heat out into space. Aint it so?

Hey thank you for the response.  I was wondering about that - but I read something about tropical storms in the Pacific and convection transferring warmer (moist) air up to where it can radiate out from there ... I would figure the Arctic may be different as it's so much colder (Scoop! LOL) and maybe the clouds formed block IR from the sea surface ... geez Louise this weather thing can get complicated....

I'm really curious about this stuff so again, thank you.


5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2020, 01:00:13 PM »
You read all about it first on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/alarm-as-arctic-sea-ice-not-yet-freezing-at-latest-date-on-record
Alarm as Arctic sea ice not yet freezing at latest date on record
Delayed freeze in Laptev Sea could have knock-on effects across polar region, scientists say

Quote
For the first time since records began, the main nursery of Arctic sea ice in Siberia has yet to start freezing in late October.

The delayed annual freeze in the Laptev Sea has been caused by freakishly protracted warmth in northern Russia and the intrusion of Atlantic waters, say climate scientists who warn of possible knock-on effects across the polar region.

Ocean temperatures in the area recently climbed to more than 5C above average, following a record breaking heatwave and the unusually early decline of last winter’s sea ice.

The trapped heat takes a long time to dissipate into the atmosphere, even at this time of the year when the sun creeps above the horizon for little more than an hour or two each day.

Graphs of sea-ice extent in the Laptev Sea, which usually show a healthy seasonal pulse, appear to have flat-lined. As a result, there is a record amount of open sea in the Arctic.

“The lack of freeze-up so far this fall is unprecedented in the Siberian Arctic region,” said Zachary Labe, a postdoctoral researcher at Colorado State University. He says this is in line with the expected impact of human-driven climate change.

“2020 is another year that is consistent with a rapidly changing Arctic. Without a systematic reduction in greenhouse gases, the likelihood of our first ‘ice-free’ summer will continue to increase by the mid-21st century,’ he wrote in an email to the Guardian.

This year’s Siberian heatwave was made at least 600 times more likely by industrial and agricultural emissions, according to an earlier study.

The warmer air temperature is not the only factor slowing the formation of ice. Climate change is also pushing more balmy Atlantic currents into the Arctic and breaking up the usual stratification between warm deep waters and the cool surface. This also makes it difficult for ice to form.

“This continues a streak of very low extents. The last 14 years, 2007 to 2020, are the lowest 14 years in the satellite record starting in 1979,” said Walt Meier, senior research scientist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center. He said much of the old ice in the Arctic is now disappearing, leaving thinner seasonal ice. Overall the average thickness is half what it was in the 1980s. The downward trend is likely to continue until the Arctic has its first ice-free summer, said Meier. The data and models suggest this will occur between 2030 and 2050. “It’s a matter of when, not if,” he added.

Scientists are concerned the delayed freeze could amplify feedbacks that accelerate the decline of the ice cap. It is already well known that a smaller ice sheet means less of a white area to reflect the sun’s heat back into space. But this is not the only reason the Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the global average.

The Laptev Sea is known as the birthplace of ice, which forms along the coast there in early winter, then drifts westward carrying nutrients across the Arctic, before breaking up in the spring in the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard. If ice forms late in the Laptev, it will be thinner and thus more likely to melt before it reaches the Fram Strait. This could mean fewer nutrients for Arctic plankton, which will then have a reduced capacity to draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

More open sea also means more turbulence in the upper layer of the Arctic ocean, which draws up more warm water from the depths.

Dr Stefan Hendricks, a sea ice physics specialist at the Alfred Wegener Institute, said the sea ice trends are grim but not surprising. “It is more frustrating than shocking. This has been forecast for a long time, but there has been little substantial response by decision-makers.”

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (Oktober, mid-monthly update)
« on: October 18, 2020, 09:32:48 PM »
Once again, October is the month when records might be broken, as the freeze is delayed.
Volume gain since minimum is 369 (29%) km3 less than the 10 year average.

October 16th volume is 2nd lowest, 319 km3 below 2019, and just 45 km3 above 2012.

The (very early) projected maximum for April 2021 is 21.64 '000 km3, which would be 2nd lowest. But it is far too early to have any confidence in any projection.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: October 18, 2020, 07:14:01 PM »
Thanks for these updates Gero.
Looking at the long term chart it is quite obvious that Arctic sea ice has not been stable since 2012 (or 2007) as some people think.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 18, 2020, 10:12:02 AM »
Quote
There's a reason scientists studying climate change use complex models not tea cups
<snip>
Worst freeze season ever underway ...
<snip>
Concur.  As I observed in the extent and area thread, the numbers on the eastern side of the basin - Kara, Barents, ESS and Laptev - are terrifying.

As FooW observes, this is already having an impact on northern hemisphere circulation and weather.

While the Beaufort and Chukchi numbers are not at record breaking levels, they are not good, and the sea surface temperatures are very much so.

Looking back at another question up thread about the influence of this all... you touch on it by way of stating the heat to melt the ice year round is already present in the Arctic, it just isn't accessible... the net enthalpy in the Arctic is rising almost exponentially, and combined with the observed destruction of the haloclines in the Atlantic side of the Arctic is a dire portent for the very near future. 

The buffers which used to keep a lid on that heat are gone.  Lack of ice growth will merely be a symptom.  The real story will play out in the changes we are going to see in winter weather in the northern hemisphere.

What happens with the weather next spring will be definitive in ways humanity has not experienced in over 10,000 years.  There is simply too much heat loose in the northern hemisphere.

The analogy I think of is one which actually came from my study of geology/vulcanology.  It ties back to the observation of events prior to a phreatic explosion at the rim of a atoll volcano.  Prior to the explosion, there were major jets of steam venting from the area which would later explode.  Someone asked if that would be sufficient for the energy to dissipate.  The point made then was that the steam jets were akin to a giant sticking his finger through the hole in the roof of a hut.  There was no way the giant was going to climb through it, nor would the roof of the hut be enough to contain him.

So it is with the increase in enthalpy in the Arctic.  What we are seeing now in fact is the culmination of years of build up and Atlantification, probably starting before 2012, probably before 2007. 

The last few years, we've watched the giant sticking his finger through a hole in the roof.  I think we are about to see him emerge.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 17, 2020, 04:18:34 PM »
Here's an animation comparing the first 16 days of October with 2012
A slightly large file, ~7mb. Click to play.
(larger/better quality version is up on twitter: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1317469236709777416).

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 17, 2020, 12:52:33 AM »
One thing I would like to remark on is the substantial wave action as of late on the Siberian side of the Arctic. To me, it is extremely important and I think it will have some profound effects. I realize the below image is created with models and is not 100% accurate, however current winds in that region are substantial and I think there are some significant waves.

Completely still water only needs to cool the very surface to the sea water freezing point, however during such wind events, mixing ensures that the ENTIRE column of water must reach that temperature in order to freeze during extremely strong winds. Moreover, I believe the effects of the winds will be twofold.

First, my understanding (and is shown in the animation of the stagnation and/or slight advancement of the Laptev Bite recently), that the current weather is affecting the ice edge and either stalling the melt or causing bottom melt. I would have to imagine 19ft waves crashing into the ice edge is going to cause some significant damage.

Second, and I think more importantly, (as Tor stated), the substantial waves are promoting mixing during a time in which the sea is SUPPOSED to be covered with ice. That cool surface layer is now being agitated and is in no way helping the ever-diminishing halocline layer. I don't know the long term implications of wave action in terms of how it affects the refreeze, but for me the most concerning aspect is the constant mixing during the transition period going into winter.

I think both of these are important components and will continue to define the Arctic in the modern era. Granted I cannot prove this as fact, but it is evident how streams can continue to flow well below freezing due to the water's movement.

I think you are on the money with this. The difference between a well mixed salty sea and one that is poorly mixed with a fresh top layer is very significant.  It will be fascinating to watch how this plays out.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: October 16, 2020, 11:30:23 PM »
I don't think I've seen this new Jennifer Francis paper referenced on the ASIF:
https://www.woodwellclimate.org/why-has-no-new-record-minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-occurred-since-september-2012/

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047
Abstract
One of the clearest indicators of human-caused climate change is the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The summer minimum coverage is now approximately half of its extent only 40 years ago. Four records in the minimum extent were broken since 2000, the most recent occurring in September 2012. No new records have been set since then, however, owing to an abrupt atmospheric shift during each August/early-September that brought low sea-level pressure, cloudiness, and unfavorable wind conditions for ice reduction. While random variability could be the cause, we identify a recently increased prevalence of a characteristic large-scale atmospheric pattern over the northern hemisphere. This pattern is associated not only with anomalously low pressure over the Arctic during summer, but also with frequent heatwaves over East Asia, Scandinavia, and northern North America, as well as the tendency for a split jet stream over the continents. This jet-stream configuration has been identified as favoring extreme summer weather events in northern mid-latitudes. We propose a mechanism linking these features with diminishing spring snow cover on northern-hemisphere continents that acts as a negative feedback on the loss of Arctic sea ice during summer.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2020, 07:40:39 PM »
One thing I would like to remark on is the substantial wave action as of late on the Siberian side of the Arctic. To me, it is extremely important and I think it will have some profound effects. I realize the below image is created with models and is not 100% accurate, however current winds in that region are substantial and I think there are some significant waves.

Completely still water only needs to cool the very surface to the sea water freezing point, however during such wind events, mixing ensures that the ENTIRE column of water must reach that temperature in order to freeze during extremely strong winds. Moreover, I believe the effects of the winds will be twofold.

First, my understanding (and is shown in the animation of the stagnation and/or slight advancement of the Laptev Bite recently), that the current weather is affecting the ice edge and either stalling the melt or causing bottom melt. I would have to imagine 19ft waves crashing into the ice edge is going to cause some significant damage.

Second, and I think more importantly, (as Tor stated), the substantial waves are promoting mixing during a time in which the sea is SUPPOSED to be covered with ice. That cool surface layer is now being agitated and is in no way helping the ever-diminishing halocline layer. I don't know the long term implications of wave action in terms of how it affects the refreeze, but for me the most concerning aspect is the constant mixing during the transition period going into winter.

I think both of these are important components and will continue to define the Arctic in the modern era. Granted I cannot prove this as fact, but it is evident how streams can continue to flow well below freezing due to the water's movement.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2020, 04:25:50 PM »
In the years 2007, 2012 and 2019, after the very low minimum sea ice extent in those years, extent sharply rebounded in the second half of October and the first few days in November. After that, for the remainder of the freezing season, extent gains were much more average in those years.

This was NOT the case in 2016. There was no massive increase in extent gains at that time or during the entire freezing season. As a result the March 2017 maximum was a record low. What was the difference? I'm not sure.

Perhaps even though 2019 had a higher AWP (i.e. potential) than 2016, clouds and inclement weather reduced the amount that AWP became real ocean heating, while in 2016 there was plenty of sunshine. If that is the case, then 2020 is similar to 2016. The GACC ensured that much of the AWP became real ocean heating, even though AWP was marginally below 2019. This suggests that large sea ice extent gains might not occur this year from now to early November (and beyond?)

The test will come in the next two to three weeks

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 09, 2020, 06:01:45 AM »
Truly fantastic input by A-Team which has in effect turned my understanding of Arctic amplification upside down - expanding open water is the driving mechanism, but higher albedo is not the primary cause of Arctic Amplification as I have always assumed, and neither can winter heat escape be deemed a negative feedback.

Rather it is the winter heat escape from open water, combined with increased water vapor and cloudiness, that is the primary cause of Arctic amplification. The negative feedback has been turned into a positive one, and a nasty one at that, according to Wildcatter.

Following from this, one is tempted to draw the conclusion that a late refreeze will increase the likelihood of a warmer winter and thinner ice. Nasty indeed.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 08, 2020, 12:20:59 PM »
It's an interesting point: Is ever-slower refreeze a big negative feedback on planetary warming in general and Arctic warming in particular? Is it enough to cause a noticeable slowdown in warming? How does it compare quantitatively with the positive feedback of less albedo during months of insolation?

Or in other word: Will the positive feedback of less ice during insolation be neutered and even overcome by the negative feedback of large areas of open ocean once the sun goes down? Perhaps the latter is not so big as it could be since it also causes increased cloudiness and H2O in the atmosphere, thus replacing one blanket with another?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 07, 2020, 03:10:50 PM »

I'd expect area and extent to be below 2012 next week, with truly exceptional regional record low ice values and further record smashing air temperatures as a result.

NSIDC area crossed paths with 2012 and is now record low for the date according to Nico Sun's page.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2020, 11:59:06 AM »
Not sure if this is autocorrelated with the current low extent but the temperature anomaly forecast in the arctic and especially siberian seas is extreme, hovering around +15C.
Keep in mind the image below is the forecasted 10-day average. Usually you'd see quite low anomalies on such a map because such long term forecasts tend to go up and down and thus even out the average. But now the forecast just stays red hot in the ESS and Laptev for the entire 10-day period without pause.
Laptev-ESS seas venting out their energy excess?

I would expect an acceleration of refreezing around the pack this week in view of Freegrass animations, but it is difficult to say.

I doubt it. There is still a massive amount of oceanic heat and it is still looking like the halocline has taken a hit. And massive heat wave is still ongoing, no matter the temperature at 850 hPa. And this is not only a matter of absolute magnitude of the anomaly. October is probably going to be less extreme than September from a certain point of view. I mean, in term of deviation to the norm, the month of September was probably the most extreme month ever recorded anywhere on earth, no exaggeration. Ostrov Golomyanyj (data since the 30s...) has broken its monthly mean temperature by 3.3°C ! Ostrov Vize by 1.6°C after breaking the monthly record of august by 2.3. Same idea for Kotel'nyj, Izvestij Tsik, Dikson, Heiss (Polargmo), Hatanga etc... As an illustration, September mean temperature for Ostrov Kotel'nyj (WMO 21432). I have never heard of a heat wave so extreme over a two month period, and this is over an area of 2 millions of km² or something like that. Even though October will be extremely warm, such deviation is not likely in October (hopefully…). But in any case, there is really something ongoing on the Atlantic side. It will take more than a week of seasonal cooling for resorbing these anomalies.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (Oktober)
« on: October 06, 2020, 06:04:44 AM »
Looking at the CAB, it appears to have "pulled off an 2018" in September, despite having much lower volume to begin with. 2020 is only 33 km3 away from 2012's CAB volume on the last day, and seems to be headed for the no. 1 spot very soon.
In general, 2020 broke all kinds of records in the CAB (smacking poor Phoenix's pet theories in the process), as shown in the little table - highest late summer and total summer volume losses, passing even the dreaded 2012 by 600 km3 of extra loss. If not for the very high winter growth, the results could have been even more impressive, following the low base inherited from 2019.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 05, 2020, 07:05:47 PM »
2032 seems like the year, again.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (Oktober)
« on: October 05, 2020, 01:47:30 PM »
In September, the daily reduction in volume up to minimum was mostly well above average, and after the minimum was mostly below the average daily gain.

The minimum was marginally below 2019 at minmum (just by 21 km3), but by the end of the month was a substantial 309 km3 below 2019.

The September monthly average was pretty much on the linear trend.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (Oktober)
« on: October 05, 2020, 12:49:56 PM »
Normally I would present the graphs based on the annual minimum now, including extrapolations of the exponential declining sea ice mass.

But as discussed in last years presentation:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg232081.html#msg232081

there seems little point in doing so. With a new year added, all but the most basic linear fit have shifted the time of "zero" ice one year in the future.

The exception is the linear fit and extrapolation over the full PIOMAS dataset (1979+). Here the extrapolated year of zero ice is 2032, same as "predicted" last year and not different from previous years.

I will attach this years graph with the same one made in 2015. Extrapolated zero is 2032, with a slightly "improved" confidence interval (upper limit no later than 2039).

 

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: October 03, 2020, 12:05:09 PM »
Thanks for the SMOS post. As we suspected, all that MYI exported to the Beaufort tail has nearly melted out, and will give no resilience against next year's melting season.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/#13f60898963e

"The chance that there will be any permanent ice left in the Arctic after 2022 is essentially zero," Anderson said, with 75 to 80 percent of permanent ice having melted already in the last 35 years.

"Can we lose 75-80 percent of permanent ice and recover? The answer is no."

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2020, 07:18:06 PM »
Playing around with some more data viz stuff.
So below is the September sea ice extent persistence. Basically, it's like stacking the average September sea ice extent for every year from 1979 to 2020 on top of each other.
Where sea ice is present in every year, the pixel value is 42 (white in the image).
Where it's present in 20 of the years, it gets a pixel values of 20 (light green)
Where it was only present in one year, it gets a value of 1 (dark orange)
And everything in between!

I'm open to suggestions on how best to display this data. I plan on doing the same for all other months too

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 01, 2020, 10:31:46 PM »
Much of the Chukchi, ESS and Laptev are still above freezing.
And more broadly, NOAA reports
"The Northern Hemisphere had its warmest summer on record at 1.17°C (2.11°F) above average, surpassing the now second-warmest such period set in 2016 and again in 2019."
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202008
There must be a lot of heat stored in the N Hemisphere oceans generally from this record summer.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 01, 2020, 12:34:18 PM »
JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent... some more

First image attached is the September monthly average graph. The average daily extent was 2nd lowest in the satellite record at 3.78 million km2,
-0.38 million km2 greater than the 2012 record low of 3.40 million km2,
- 0.37 million km2 than the 2019 value of 4.15 milliion km2.
- and 0.41 million less than the linerar trend value or 4+ years ahead of that linear trend.

The second image looks at daily change from September to December - average, 2019, 2016 2012, and 2020 to date. Last year refreeze was very slow in the first 3 weeks of October. The result was the October daily average extent was the lowest in the satellite record. However from late October 2019 extent gain accelerated to well above average. Will 2020 follow a similar path? if it does there is a good chance that sometime in October 2020 daily extent will be lowest in the satellite record, espcially as 2012 daily gains were at or above average in October.

The third image is the October monthly average graph, with the 2020 data assuming average extent gains. In this case the October 2020 monthly average would be slightly above the 2019 record low, but below the 2012 average.

The 4th image is the plume - just because I like that graph.

Could be an interesting month.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 29, 2020, 01:42:21 PM »
And the latest images and animation.

BFTV, the last frame in the final figure (the gif), shows the total change over the period- that is itself a nice visualisation and could be a stand-alone

Here ya go

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 28, 2020, 11:31:29 PM »
Looking again at BFTV's excellent chart, I wonder - wasn't 2011 lower than 2010? I always recall that 2012 was the culmination of 3 strong melting seasons in a row.

10,11 and 12 were a strong melt years, much to some surprise as 10-11 and 11-12 were strong and moderate La Nina years respectively.  2012, early on, was not really considered anything special until it just kept on melting and then the storms took over at the end of the season and totally decimated the ice.

From Neven's update on July 20th, 2012, It shouldn't but it does.

Quote
I'm basically going to say the same thing as I did in the last ASI update: Weather patterns haven't been conducive to sea ice decrease, trend lines on graphs should be stalling, but they don't. As I've shown in yesterday's blog post comparing this year's weather patterns in June and July with previous record years, the decrease should have slowed down significantly like it did in 2010 and 2011, but it didn't. The 2012 SIE trend line shouldn't follow 2007 so closely, but it does. The 2012 SIA trend line shouldn't lead, but it does.

Then later on, Neven's Open thread on 9th Sept 2012,

Quote
Can we start speculating about the minimum yet? I know trend lines are still dropping, and after this crazy melting season, I don't feel able or willing to make any pronouncement on when it will stop. In 2010 and 2011 the weather forecast maps helped me to announce the minimum a few days in advance, but those maps aren't any help to me this year. All I'm seeing for the coming five days is a persistent high over the Siberian coast and a huge low developing near Iceland, reaching all the way to Scandinavia and the UK. Normally this would mean slowdown for ice decline or even minimum, but this melting season isn't normal.

It is easy to forget just how exceptional 2012 was.

2005,06 and 07 were also strong melting years.  2005 broke all sorts of records including massive media time due to new islands being reported "found" due to the melt back of the ice.

2006 was anomalous.  It was an incredibly warm year that suddenly went cool in August and killed any chance of a new record.  As can bee seen in the Arctic Sea Ice News Fall 2006

it is quite amusing to see 2005 recorded as a "record low".



This was also the year of the Unusual Polynya, if you are interested.

Right now I'm just sitting back and watching how the next few years play out.  Incredibly thin ice, incredibly low volume, increasingly higher CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Eventually something has to give and the only thing I can see is the impending BOE.  It is just a matter of when.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2020, 05:27:20 PM »
Trend in the maximum extent minus the minimum extent.
Inset map of the 2020 max and min extent too.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2020, 09:26:00 AM »
Well. With Mosaic basically proving that the best piece of ice in the best position on the Atlantic side of the Lomonosov ridge LOST thickness on its entire transit from October to may, from 7m to 5m, through constant bottom melt, and never froze it's soggy core. And now that they can cruise at open water efficiency, from laptev to Fram north of 86 latitude, and never register any fresh freezable layer...
 There appears to be no such thing as a Arctic sea ice freezing season anymore in this half of the Arctic basin.
Therefore I suggest a poll to rename this forum the SiAlCa sea ice forum. Hopefully there will be a few years while those elements hydrated minerals can still stay cold enough to remain solid on those sectors polar seas. Unlike Venus.
Wry and somewhat twisted that this bad half joke may sound.

On the Atlantic side, it is looking like that the halocline has taken a serious hit. And the weather is totaly nuts on the russian islands. As of the 24th, the record of the most crazy anomaly is probably for Ostrov Golomnjannyj. The current mean temperature, 4.7°C, is 4° (!) above the old record of 2012, and even 2°C above the warmest month ever recorded, August 1932. Every day have broken their daily record, 15 days had a Tx above the old monthly record, and even one Tn was above the monthly record of Tx... And all of this with 71 mm of rain (and I mean, really rain, liquid water at 5°C), wich is more than three time the normal monthly precipitation amount. From Ostrov Heiss to Ostrov Kotel'Nyj, crossing Khatanga and Ostrov Vize, mean monthly temperature are going to be 2 to 4°C above previous record, and going to be more than 3 sigma above normal. Seing such and anomaly over such an area (we are speaking of something like more than 2 millions of km² or 0.5% of Earth surface) for a monthly mean is unprecedent.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 23, 2020, 09:06:29 AM »
pps: Please shoot me down if you can. I don't really want to believe NSIDC could get it so wrong.
Is it really bad science or just bad politics?

In a better world, say one without politically motivated science denialism, it would make sense to look at Arctic post-2007 as a separate timeline.

But in the fact-challenged mess we live in this will fuel the denialist camp with another faux hiatus.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 23, 2020, 07:27:18 AM »
How is "melting" defined? When a storm destroys the ice, do we still call that melting? To me real melting means an input of energy into the system that raises the ocean temperature and makes the ice go away.

There is only melting ... it is a phase change of water and requires a hell of a lot of energy. Which means that if a storm causes melt, it must have brought energy to the ice, both by itself (storms in northern latitudes tend to have higher air temperatures than surrounding air masses, and more latent heat in the form of rain and humidity) and by causing pre-existing heat in the ocean to come into contact with the ice.

The oceans are getting warmer because of AGW, and this increase in global ocean temperatures is perhaps the main driver behind the steady decline of Arctic sea ice. The vagaries of weather cause annual fluctuation while the underlying near-linear trend is probably underpinned by increased global ocean temperatures. Since the rate of warming has been increasing, the rate of ice loss should presumably also be increasing, but I suspect that this change is happening too slowly to be apparent in our limited data series so far.

Local positive feedback is presumably also a contributing cause to the underlying trend. Increased ocean surface during melting season is a strong positive feedback that should be increasing the underlying rate of melt. Continental amplification during summer is probably also on the increase - the rate of summer warming in Siberia is significantly larger than global warming generally.

All of these factors should be causing an increase in the underlying rate of melt in the Arctic, and I suspect that this is what is really happening. The variations in weather and the annual swings arund the trend may be hiding this, and the increase in the rate of decline may well be too slow at this time to show up in our limited data sets.

But any talk of "slow down" is pure speculation, and not supported by the data nor by the physics of the system.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:53:57 PM »
Quote
GlennK: what was so special about 2007?
Indeed, the extreme ice loss in the summer of 2007 really caught people's attention at the time. I came across a couple of assessments made shortly thereafter that attributed the outcome to Arctic conditions not unlike 2020. The ice by now was a lot younger and thiner than in 2007:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Plummets in 2007
J. Stroeve, M. Serreze, S. Drobot, S. Gearheard, M. Holland, J. Maslanik, W. Meier,  T. Scambos
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008EO020001
 Satellite data reveal that skies under the anticyclone were predominantly clear, fostering strong melt. Persistent southerly winds between the high- and low- pressure centers gave rise to above-average air temperatures north of Siberia that promoted melt and also transported ice away from the Siberian coast.
What I take from 2007 was that was the first year of a significant loss of sea ice extent and area in the Central Arctic Sea, i.e. North of 80 was breached on the Atlantic front, and even more stunning, 85 North was breached North of the ESS (at 165 East).

And now in 2020, to quote https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ on Sept 16th,
Quote
North of Scandinavia and Russia, a very broad sea-ice-free area exists with the ice edge lying near 85 degrees N, far to the north of Svalbard, Franz Josef Land, and Severnaya Zemlya (Northern Land) (Figure 1c). The sharply defined ice edge in this area, between about 0 degrees and 100 degrees longitude, indicates strong compaction of the ice by winds coming from the south and is the furthest north the ice edge has been in this location over the satellite data record.

That ice edge retreated north of 85 North for a few days more.

I have always been convinced by the arguments to support that bathymetry provides resistance to melt along that Atlantic front, but I am also convinced by the simple equation...

Global Heating + Polar Amplification = Resistance is Futile.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:48:00 PM »
Quote
GlennK: what was so special about 2007?
Indeed, the extreme ice loss in the summer of 2007 really caught people's attention at the time. I came across a couple of assessments made shortly thereafter that attributed the outcome to Arctic conditions not unlike 2020. The ice by now was a lot younger and thiner than in 2007:

Sunlight, water, and ice: extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the summer of 2007
DK Perovich, JA Richter-Menge, KF Jones and B Light. 2008
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008GL034007

The summer extent of the Arctic sea ice cover, widely recognized as an indicator of climate change, has been declining for the past few decades reaching a record minimum in September 2007. The causes of the dramatic loss have implications for the future trajectory of the Arctic sea ice cover. Ice mass balance observations demonstrate that there was an extraordinarily large amount of melting on the bottom of the ice in the Beaufort Sea in the summer of 2007. Calculations indicate that solar heating of the upper ocean was the primary source of heat for this observed enhanced Beaufort Sea bottom melting. An increase in the open water fraction resulted in a 500% positive anomaly in solar heat input to the upper ocean, triggering an ice –albedo feedback and contributing to the accelerating ice retreat.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Plummets in 2007
J. Stroeve, M. Serreze, S. Drobot, S. Gearheard, M. Holland, J. Maslanik, W. Meier,  T. Scambos
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2008EO020001

Arctic sea ice declined rapidly to unprecedented low extents in the summer of 2007, raising concern that the Arctic may be on the verge of a fundamental transition toward a seasonal ice cover. Arctic sea ice extent typically attains a seasonal maximum in March and minimum in September. Over the course of the modern satellite record (1979 to present), sea ice extent has declined significantly in all months, with the decline being most pronounced in September. By mid-July 2007, it was clear that a new record low would be set during the summer of 2007.

While this thinning set the stage for pronounced summer ice loss, its effects were compounded by a favorable pattern of atmospheric circulation. An anticyclonic pattern over the central Arctic Ocean that formed in early June persisted for 3 months and was coupled with low pressures over central and western Siberia. Satellite data reveal that skies under the anticyclone were predominantly clear, fostering strong melt. Persistent southerly winds between the high- and low- pressure centers gave rise to above-average air temperatures north of Siberia that promoted melt and also transported ice away from the Siberian coast.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2020, 08:02:38 PM »
Animation of the annual max and min, from 1979 to present (click to play).

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2020, 02:14:14 PM »
Not sure if this is the relevant area to put this, but new paper out discussing increased bottom melt in the Arctic.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/18/8107/353233/Weakening-of-Cold-Halocline-Layer-Exposes-Sea-Ice

Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: September 18, 2020, 05:01:32 PM »
I was listening to a woman on BBC Radio 4 on how she deals with depression.

One escape route for her is to chill out watching the 24/7 Webcam from The Walrus Islands State Game Sanctuary (WISGS) - "one of the largest gathering places in the world for Pacific Walruses. The most popular haul-out in the WISGS is Round Island, where the walrus cam is located on Main Beach. Please enjoy watching up to 15,000 of these massive marine mammals with Explore's live video feed from walrus cam." https://www.alaskacenters.gov/explore/attractions/multimedia/webcams/round-island-walrus


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: September 18, 2020, 11:22:39 AM »
Thanks Vox, very interesting!

Wikipedia lists the following possible causes of LIA:
Scientists have tentatively identified seven possible causes of the Little Ice Age: orbital cycles; decreased solar activity /the Maunder Minimum/; increased volcanic activity; altered ocean current flows;[82] fluctuations in the human population in different parts of the world causing reforestation, or deforestation; and the inherent variability of global climate.

What these model simulations show, is that the cause could actually have been the last one, natural variability. Supposedly the other things that are 100% known to have happened in the relevant time-frame were not excluded from the runs, such as the bottomed out solar activity and the volcanism?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Possible_causes

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: September 18, 2020, 08:37:57 AM »
Sea ice Triggered the Little Ice Age, Finds a New Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-sea-ice-triggered-age.html


The map shows Greenland and adjacent ocean currents. Colored circles show where some of the sediment cores used in the study were obtained from the seafloor. The small historical map from the beginning of the 20th century shows the distribution of Storis, or sea ice from the Arctic Ocean, which flows down the east coast of Greenland. The graphs show the reconstructed time series of changes in the occurrence of sea ice and polar waters in the past. The colors of the curves correspond to the locations on the map. The blue shading represents the period of increased sea ice in the 1300s.

A new study finds a trigger for the Little Ice Age that cooled Europe from the 1300s through mid-1800s, and supports surprising model results suggesting that under the right conditions sudden climate changes can occur spontaneously, without external forcing.

The study, published in Science Advances, reports a comprehensive reconstruction of sea ice transported from the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait, by Greenland, and into the North Atlantic Ocean over the last 1400 years. The reconstruction suggests that the Little Ice Age—which was not a true ice age but a regional cooling centered on Europe—was triggered by an exceptionally large outflow of sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic in the 1300s.

While previous experiments using numerical climate models showed that increased sea ice was necessary to explain long-lasting climate anomalies like the Little Ice Age, physical evidence was missing. This study digs into the geological record for confirmation of model results.

Researchers pulled together records from marine sediment cores drilled from the ocean floor from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic to get a detailed look at sea ice throughout the region over the last 1400 years. ...  The cores were detailed enough to detect abrupt (decadal scale) changes in sea ice and ocean conditions over time.

The records indicate an abrupt increase in Arctic sea ice exported to the North Atlantic starting around 1300, peaking in midcentury, and ending abruptly in the late 1300s.

... Climate models called "control models" are run to understand how the climate system works through time without being influenced by outside forces like volcanic activity or greenhouse gas emissions. A set of recent control model experiments included results that portrayed sudden cold events that lasted several decades. The model results seemed too extreme to be realistic—so-called Ugly Duckling simulations—and researchers were concerned that they were showing problems with the models.

Miles' study found that there may be nothing wrong with those models at all.

"We actually find that number one, we do have physical, geological evidence that these several decade-long cold sea ice excursions in the same region can, in fact do, occur," he said. In the case of the Little Ice Age, "what we reconstructed in space and time was strikingly similar to the development in an Ugly Duckling model simulation, in which a spontaneous cold event lasted about a century. It involved unusual winds, sea ice export, and a lot more ice east of Greenland, just as we found in here." The provocative results show that external forcing from volcanoes or other causes may not be necessary for large swings in climate to occur. Miles continued, "These results strongly suggest...that these things can occur out of the blue due to internal variability in the climate system."

The marine cores also show a sustained, far-flung pulse of sea ice near the Norse colonies on Greenland coincident with their disappearance in the 15th century. A debate has raged over why the colonies vanished, usually agreeing only that a cooling climate pushed hard on their resilience. Miles and his colleagues would like to factor in the oceanic changes nearby: very large amounts of sea ice and cold polar waters, year after year for nearly a century.

"This massive belt of ice that comes streaming out of the Arctic—in the past and even today—goes all the way around Cape Farewell to around where these colonies were," Miles said. He would like to look more closely into oceanic conditions along with researchers who study the social sciences in relation to climate.

Martin W. Miles et al, Evidence for extreme export of Arctic sea ice leading the abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age, Science Advances (2020)
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/38/eaba4320

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:49:16 AM »
Based on the quite low 2016-2017 freezing season maximum which I would hypothesize was at least partially due to the state of the 2016 minimum, is it plausible to expect that similar effects, albeit maybe not as extreme, could be observed this freezing season as well due to the extensive damage to the CAB in both years and the high SSTs in the peripheral seas (especially the W Siberian ones)? I get the feeling it’s going to be an uphill battle for some areas which do not usually see that problem to such a degree to refreeze enough in time to not be crippled as the melting season rears its head once again in 2021. Thin ice (low volume compared to resulting extent, which may also be low) and warmer SSTs/higher salinity might be the “new paradigm”/“dynamic shift” that 2020 is kickstarting/propagating.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 12:35:44 AM »
Actually, I'd say the "flip" happened between 2007 & 2012.  Since then, I think we've just been working through latency in the system.
      The 2012 GAC gets lots of attention, which is justified for a freak event with high (though much of it shortlived) impact.  But I haven't seen as much discussion about the weather patterns that had already defined 2012 as a big melt year well before the GAC 2012. 

      Agreed, 2007 really was the starting gun. The more I've learned the more I've wondered "What the heck happened in 2007?"  ASI watchers must have been freaking out at the time because there were no precedents or early warning as far as I can tell.  It was a killer melt year from which the Arctic has never really recovered.  Discussion of the weather patterns or other factors that made 2007 such a drastic melt year would be appreciated by this reader, and I suspect many other ASIF denizens.
     

2007 was dominated by a Beaufort high for the large part hence a tongue of ice compacted against the Arctic islands in the Laptev sea. Either way, persistent southerly and very warm winds kept on compacting the ice leaving more and more open water in the ESS and Chukchi sea and I've no doubt the warm SSTS contributed the ice edge reaching 85 degrees north. Compare 2006 to 2007 and it was eye opening just how much difference there was between the two years especially on the Pacific side of the basin.

This year was similar especially in July but the positioning of the high was more in the ESS region hence the Laptev sea had very rapid melt but thinner than average ice certainly played a role also.

What the high pressure does do though is compact the CAB ice which means ice conditions to that of 2010, 13 and 16 less likely but as this year is showing, there is only so much compaction and warmth the CAB ice can take before its start to retreat away. Its why I did not believe we would see record lows this year but extent did drop a bit lower than I expected because of the huge retreat in the CAB sector.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 18, 2020, 12:22:02 AM »
Quote
      Agreed, 2007 really was the starting gun. The more I've learned the more I've wondered "What the heck happened in 2007?"  ASI watchers must have been freaking out at the time because there were no precedents or early warning as far as I can tell.  It was a killer melt year from which the Arctic has never really recovered.  Discussion of the weather patterns or other factors that made 2007 such a drastic melt year would be appreciated by this reader, and I suspect many other ASIF denizens.
     

I cant locate where, Glen but I remember Friv posting numerous times earlier this year about the remarkable dipole summer of 2007.

I suppose everyone here has their own perspective on the Arctic. Their own moment/year which really stands out.

I'll throw in my list:

1975 - Wasnt old enough in '75 but about 20 years ago I remember first reading from the Canadian Ice Service that the shipping channels to Prudhoe Alaska were blocked all through that summer.

2007 - Was a huge wake up. I used to get my Arctic data from the NSIDC and remember seeing the images that September  and being so amazed how far the ice had eroded especially on the Pacific side. It was an unusual profile as ice was still connected to Russia near the north Cape.

2012 - The GAC and my first becoming aware of Neven's blog.

2016 - The state of the ice all around the pole that August/Sept was so bad. Looked even worse (in that area) than this year.

2020 - The large melt this year was not a surprise to me, given the starting conditions last April. However the thinning north of Greenland was an eye opener. Yet another big Arctic surprise.

What strange/surprises await us next year ?

Best place to watch it all unfold is the ASIF. Thanks to all !

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 10:59:20 PM »
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/8074/record-arctic-sea-ice-loss-in-2007

This is what it looked like.

Somewhere along the 07-12 years the ice rebuilding circulation broke down. Not that much thick ice making the Beaufort round to join the pack.

I think 2007 was just a year on a continuum. Back then it looked bad but there still was a lot of ice.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 10:22:29 PM »
     Nice graphic uniquorn.
     FWIW - Perhaps the difference between 2020 and 2012 can be summarized as:<snip>
<snip>
Does anyone doubt that 2020 was a paradigm shift?
This ain't your grandma's arctic anymore!

Actually, I'd say the "flip" happened between 2007 & 2012.  Since then, I think we've just been working through latency in the system.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 09:56:20 PM »
     Nice graphic uniquorn.
     FWIW - Perhaps the difference between 2020 and 2012 can be summarized as:<snip>
2012 had a GAC
2020 had a GAAC

The GAC gave us a minimum below 4 million m2 because of wind
The GAAC gave us a minimum below 4 million m2 because of heat and salt (and a little bit of wind)

2012 was a false BOE 0.1
2020 was a real BOE 0.2

Some people say a BOE is below 1 million m2
Others say a BOE is below 4 million m2

To end that argument, let's call everything in between 1M m2 and 4M m2 a BOE 0.x...

Does anyone doubt that 2020 was a paradigm shift?
This ain't your grandma's arctic anymore!

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: September 17, 2020, 01:29:30 PM »
As far as I remember it is like this:

Both forecasts are made 50 days in advance.

The anomaly ("naive") forecast (which is there for reference only!) simply takes a look at the current extent anomaly vs some sort of longer term average and adds that anomaly to the average of T+50, eg. if July 1 ice extent average for the past 10 years is 10 M sqkm and this year it is 9 m sqkm, then the anomaly is -1 M sqkm. 50 days from now is August 19. We take a look at the Aug 19 average, which is let's say 6 M sqkm, so the forecast for Aug 19 (made on July 1) is 6-1= 5 M sqkm.

The official model breaks down the Arctic into many plots and takes a look at each plot's survival probablities based on past years' data and makes its forecast for 50 days from now for each plot. Then the plots are summarized.


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: September 17, 2020, 10:12:41 AM »
The anomaly forecast (light blue line) is NOT the Slater forecast. It is simply there to show what a naive forecast approach would be, ie. looking at the current anomaly and saying that the size of the anomaly would stay the same in the future.

The Slater forecast is the dark blue line.

This year the "naive" approach was spot on, while the "official" Slater model was behind events (overestimating final extent by cca 0,5 m sq km). Also, the final distribution of ice was wrong.

So once again, the light blue line is just a guide to highlight the model's difference from a naive forecast approach.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: September 17, 2020, 09:46:39 AM »
Clearly by spot on I meant that their anomaly forecast for minimum was accurate. And there is ample discussion in this thread about what Anomaly forecast means, what the 50 day lead is, and the comparisons between the two.

Peruse at your pleasure.

So you mean an "explanation" like this one here:

What does anomaly forecast mean?

That if its 100k below the norm for the time of year now, it will be 100k below the norm for the time of year in future.

Which is not very helpful. But of course if nobody understands what Anomaly forecast is, then the lack of understandable explanations become clear. The Slater website makes no attempt at explanation.

As long as nobody can explain what the Anomaly line means, there is no way to claim that the Slater model has been anywhere near being able to make any real predictions this year.

Just look at the graph. The dark blue line jumps all over the place with very little correlation with the red line, predictive valu nil. The light blue line is practically never comes close to the red line except at the very end.  And since nobody knows what the blue line is showing, no conclusions can be drawn from it!

The Slater website has 2016 as "last year", shown below. That year the predictions were actually quite good, notice the close correlation between the red and dark blue lines towards main melting season, while the the light blue line stays well away from both.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Slater's thread
« on: September 17, 2020, 02:27:47 AM »
Slater's model deserves more credit than it gets. Once again.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 15, 2020, 07:50:55 PM »
As a long time lurker and persistent reader of this forum, I think it appropriate at this time to especially thank Oren, Juan C. Garcia, Frivolousz21, Jim Hunt, Born From The Void, Aluminum, A-Team, ArcticMelt2, Gerontocrat, and other participants on the ASIF for their continued outstanding analyses of the Arctic environment.  I also want to thank Neven for making this all possible as well. For people like me publishing these analyses in the concise and straightforward manner is a godsend for us.  The lack of garbage and political interference is indeed refreshing. So, "Thank You" to everyone.....

VaughnAn

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