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Messages - aperson

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 27, 2019, 01:52:07 PM »

To the "old hands" out there ... wondering if this is what the "old normal" used to look like...? 
A glimpse of the past, for a week at least...?

This present NH mean sea level set-up reminds me very much of December 1988. That was the month that began a very mild winter in western Europe and the time when I first started to take notice of "global warming" or whatever it was called back then.

Here is the Dec 1988 pattern and the current GFS 10 mean forecast.


2
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2019, 01:04:16 PM »
By stating that SkS and Jo Nova are two sides of the same coin, KK proves that he/she is 0% serious about AGW, and so is banned.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 06, 2019, 10:20:00 PM »
I like using both the maximum and the minimum to glimpse into the future of the ice. Attached is an animation using the intersection of the trendlines of maximum volume and volume loss from 2007 to 2019.  Date of intersection estimated by sight, but it shouldn't be off by more than 1 year.

2032 has indeed been remarkably stable.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 05, 2019, 09:04:04 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 04, 2019, 08:15:54 AM »
Winter Hype

6
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: October 03, 2019, 04:42:17 AM »
Thusly, if Greenland melt has an impact on oceanic currents (and it definitely does) one would think the impact of seasonal meltflux across North America and Eurasia is actually even greater than that of Greenland.
One would think so, but as usual one would have to ignore the much bigger size of the North American continent (not to mention Eurasia), the various directions the meltwater can take due to the topography of the continental divides and of the surrounding seas, the sublimation, ground infiltration, and evaporation (and even damming and irrigation) that work to reduce the amount reaching the sea, the much higher temperatures of the meltwater, and probably other factors that diminish the effect of NA SWE, and make it not comparable to the Greenland figure which is a net figure of surface mass lost.
One could, if one desired so, to prove one's claims by analyzing river discharge into the various surrounding seas, and quantifying the effect. I hope one does so at some point.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 08:24:44 PM »

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year


8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 09:16:02 AM »
Can anyone verify AAM is dropping

Nevermind, I found one.  http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

From the looks of things, going to be one hell of a cold dunk into winter for Northern Hemisphere civilization.  All at once.

The Arctic will stay fed by high pressure parcels every 4 days for the first half of October.

Here's a year of AAM

9
Antarctica / Re: The Amery Ice Shelf Thread
« on: September 25, 2019, 09:11:07 PM »
Big claving at Amery!

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: September 21, 2019, 07:53:31 PM »
It's hard to match the ITP buoys temperature & salinity profiles with their location using the standard plots provided, so I practiced my R and took a stab at it.

Because of the constraint of one type of value displayed per location point, I started with the average temperature of the 0-60 dbar ocean layer. I'd like to animate it based on date with a fading trail, but if anyone has suggestions for a better calculated value to display, let me know please.

L3 data was available for years 2005-2014

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 21, 2019, 08:45:06 AM »
In Kane Basin, refreeze becomes obvious.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 03:31:20 PM »
Hey folks, sorry I've been away for a bit. Unfortunately, discussing the CAA ice here is necessarily low on my list of obligations. There's been some question about how the current ice regime will interact with the traditional "garlic press" process of the CAA. Short story: there's not much garlic left to press.

The way the garlic press is supposed to work, thick MYI at the southern boundary of the CAB gets forced into the steep channels of the CAA resulting in additional ridging and compaction. Over a number of years, that ice is eventually delivered south into melt-accessible areas. All of this works because the average prevailing wind pattern in the region forces that ice into the archipelago and then south (and, to some extent, southeast). This process is the primary reason why the ice in the CAA has traditionally behaved very differently from fast ice elsewhere (although the channel size and bathymetry of the archipelago would otherwise suggest that CAA ice is comparatively uninteresting fast ice).

This melting season did a lot of damage to these assumptions. Most of the season was spent with an atypical wind pattern that forced ice from the CAA/CAB boundary north against the CAB and west into the Beaufort. Thus, the Crack was born. Additionally, while this wasn't a record-setting year for CAA melt, it was pretty devastating nevertheless. Massey Sound was a killing field for ice. The Peary and Sverdrup Channels have some ice only by dint of latitude. In the Perry Channel, the surviving ice (primarily associated with the Viscount Melville Sound) has been forced by late storms to the southwest into areas that are frequent melt-out traps. The region that has been the temperature "cold core" of the archipelago in historical data wasn't actually very cold; ice in the PGAS is badly fragmented and exceptionally mobile, and even the sheltered ice in Wilkins Strait looks more than a little roughed up.

More importantly, what remains of the MYI -- the tiny, thin line of red on the age maps -- has been displaced north into the CAB, away from the CAA boundary. The Crack has filled as the wind patterns return to their expected directions, but the ice that filled the Crack is not that MYI stopgap, but an assemblage of broken bits transported in from elsewhere, including no small part of relatively young ice from the Lincoln Sea area. This is not robust garlic for the press. It's reasonable -- one hopes -- to assume that wind flow will indeed push ice south into the CAA. But this ice has demonstrated considerable structural weakness. So I expect floe disintegration rather than ridging as the disparate floes are forced together. Winter's cold will mitigate some of this, and the whole mess will freeze into a matrix of FYI (effectively fast) ice.

The overall trend for the Arctic is, of course, hotter with more melt. But as we've seen this year and the past couple, that melt is not always distributed in the same pattern year over year. If we get a year or two where the melt focus turns away from the CAA, and we don't see Crack 2 in 2020, the garlic press will likely crank back up for awhile anyway. Otherwise, within a couple of years, we may very well see what happens when the CAA explores a new modality (as we're already seeing with Bering/Chucki mechanics).

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:38:13 AM »
September 15th, 2019:


     4,006,036 km2, a drop of -19,682 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record for this day.


P.S.: 2019 is now the second lowest year for extent on record, now 11,228 km2 below the 2016 minimum of 4,017,264 km2 and behind only 2012.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:36:08 AM »
Filling in for Mr. Juan Garcia :)

September 15, 2019:
4,006,036 = A decrease of -19,682 km2.

Passed 2016's minimum of 4,017,264 km2

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 09:08:14 PM »
Just take a look at the poll-results year on year and you will see that weatherdude88 is not alone in his inaccuracy of prediction AND that the data is invariably weighted toward lower-than-actual prediction (though i suspect this year may buck that trend).

That being said he did take a risk coming out with what he did.
He is a denier troll and it was not a risk, it was a lie designed to further obfuscate and derail the discourse on this forum.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:30:02 AM »
The more scientifically inclined amongst us might be interested in taking a look at this news received via Don Perovich:

https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/data

At long last some more ice mass balance buoys are "awaiting deployment" across the Arctic Ocean, including four at the MOSAiC expedition.

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 14, 2019, 10:13:19 PM »
It's a 'target-rich' environment ...

--------------------

Iran’s Threat to Saudi Critical Infrastructure: The Implications of U.S.-Iranian Escalation
https://www.csis.org/analysis/irans-threat-saudi-critical-infrastructure-implications-us-iranian-escalation

... This report argues that while Saudi Arabia has vulnerabilities in its oil, desalination, electricity, SCADA, shipping, and other systems, Iran has thus far adopted a calibrated approach. Tehran has conducted irregular attacks to infrastructure using offensive cyber weapons, naval ships to impede oil tankers, and partners like the Houthis in Yemen. The United States should focus on deterring further Iranian escalation, refraining from actions that threaten the regime’s survival, and providing a political “off ramp” for Iran to de-escalate.

 ...

Oil Infrastructure Risks

... From Gas Oil Separation Plants (GOSPs) the majority of Saudi oil is moved to stabilization plants, which offer a potentially more vulnerable target in the event of escalating hostilities
. Saudi oil is mostly “sour,” which means that it contains significant amounts of hydrogen sulfide that must be removed prior to shipping.42 This process occurs at one of five stabilization facilities, located in Abqaiq, Juaymah, Jubail, Qatif, and Ras Tanura.43 Of these, Abqaiq is the most vulnerable. It is the world’s largest oil processing facility and crude oil stabilization plant, with a capacity of more than 7 million barrels per day (bpd).44 Though the Abqaiq facility is large, the stabilization process is concentrated in specific areas highlighted in Figure 3—including storage tanks and processing and compressor trains—which greatly increases the likelihood of a strike successfully disrupting or destroying its operations.


Figure 3: Abqaiq Processing and Stabilization Plant

Saudi Arabia’s export mechanisms are also potentially vulnerable, including its system of pipelines and its ports along the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Its primary domestic pipeline is the 746-mile Petroline (also known as the East-West Pipeline), which connects processing facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia to export facilities along the Red Sea like Yanbu, thus allowing crude oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.48 The Petroline’s capacity is currently 5 million bpd, but expansion is currently underway to significantly increase that capacity over the next several years.49 To move oil to Red Sea ports, which are located at a higher elevation than eastern processing facilities, the Petroline operates using a series of pumping stations. An attack on any of these pumping stations could halt the flow of oil in that direction.

... Natural renewable water resources are scarce in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Limited rainfall and excessive consumption have depleted groundwater to unsustainable levels.53 As a result, water desalination is vital to acquiring potable water.54 Gulf Cooperation Council countries host 43 percent of the world’s total desalination plants (7,500 of 17,500) and account for about 70 percent of the global total production capacity for desalinated water.55 In Saudi Arabia, desalination accounts for over 70 percent of the potable water used in cities, and desalinated water has replaced groundwater as the primary source of drinking water throughout the country.56

The world’s largest desalination plant is Ras al-Khair, located on the Persian Gulf coast of Saudi Arabia just north of Jubail. The plant was commissioned in 2014 and has a daily production capacity of 1.025 million cubic meters of desalinated water.57 The majority of the water produced (some 800 [million] cubic meters per day) goes directly to Riyadh, while the other 200 [million] cubic meters is distributed to neighboring regions. Ras al-Khair is a hybrid plant, which uses multistage flashing and reverse osmosis technologies to remove salt from the water pumped in from the Gulf. The eight multistage flashing units heat the seawater   to produce steam, then condense the steam to form desalinated water, while the seventeen reverse osmosis units force seawater through semi-permeable membranes to remove the sodium and chloride.58 The multistage flashing units and other components of the desalination process are highlighted in Figure 6.



... In 2009, leaked U.S. State Department diplomatic cables suggested that a hostile act against Saudi Arabia’s desalination plant at Jubail would force Riyadh to evacuate “within a week,” as the plant at that time provided Riyadh with over 90 percent of its drinking water.59 Ras al-Khair is now Saudi Arabia’s (and the world’s) largest desalination plant and is also vulnerable to an Iranian attack. In one assessment, analysts noted that “every desalination plant built is a hostage to fortune; they are easily sabotaged; they can be attacked from the air or by shelling from off-shore; and their intake ports have to be kept clear, giving another simple way of preventing their operation.”

Cyberattacks also present a serious threat to Saudi desalination plants like Ras al-Khair. Beyond these types of attacks, Saudi Arabia and its neighbors need to worry about the water quality itself. An intentional (or even an unintentional) oil spillage near Ras al-Khair, for example, would render the water unusable for desalination, a concern which was realized during the Gulf War after Iraq deliberately opened the valves at a Kuwaiti oil terminal and created a massive oil slick in the Gulf.

18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Iluliagdlup Tasia
« on: September 13, 2019, 03:44:23 PM »
Another one bites the dust. A lake this time. Lots of sediment gone from downstream too. The days inbetween were cloudy on Sentinel-Hub playground.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 11:55:14 PM »

This makes a big assumption - that system behavior will be consistent as we reach that limit.

Based on the surprising end of season slowdown this year, I'm not sure that's safe. I'm still mulling hypotheses for what we are seeing and why the dynamics are not falling more in line with your assumptions. 

"Blue Ocean" is a boundary condition, and the retreat of the ice to where it stands now - post 2007 - suggests to me that the dynamics for the ice north of 80 are significantly different from those of the peripheral seas, which is were most significant visible changes in the Arctic have unfolded.


This is my thought too; that there isn't enough insolation to melt the ice N of 80°N with the current FDD thickness increase, even in a sunny year. To melt the ice there has to be less FDDs. Increased oceanic heat isn't going to effect the high Arctic sea ice while vertical mixing is prohibited by the halocline. The latter isn't likely to disappear completely because of the input of fresh water from rivers and ice melt. Mixing can occur during big storms, but they seem to be rare in the summer. If that's the case, then seeing the high Arctic ice free is likely to require a warm, cloudy winter as well as a bright summer.

Did I just state the obvious?


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 12, 2019, 10:28:22 PM »
Thanks Jim. Animation for (most of) this melting season from week ending mar25-sep2

My pleasure Oren!

Note in particular all the red stuff disappearing down the Nares Strait this year.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2019, 07:49:13 AM »
Distance from Sep 11 to the 2007 minimum of 4,065,739 km²: 44,825 km²
Distance from Sep 11 to the 2016 minimum of 4,017,264 km²: 93,300 km²

22
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 10, 2019, 05:02:13 AM »
I think some of you are confusing liberal denial with "left-wing denial".

23
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: September 09, 2019, 08:25:21 AM »
A68A from 4th without 1 cloudy day.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 08, 2019, 01:35:04 AM »
It's not the model that I take seriously

it's the physics that causes it to do this

Ill believe that forecast when i see it

You don't think November can be +7C in the entire Arctic?  sheesh, tough crowd

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 07, 2019, 08:30:22 AM »
It's not the model that I take seriously

it's the physics that causes it to do this

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 07, 2019, 06:10:42 AM »
September CanSIPS results are out

It is getting away from the quadrupole

Yes, you can say Quadrupole.  It's in Mitchell 2013 -- I recall the late July block over Europe and Greenland to be a slow moving what you describe as Dipole.  The rest of these AO weakening events have been more dynamic and quadrupole.  Look at Jan 4-6, 2014 and of course, the last 5 months.

the pattern is changing away from two distinct polar cells into something more diffuse and more mixed with blocking pressure.  good or bad who knows

I do expect the US corn belt will be under similar rain pressure during planting season in 2020.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 11:44:13 AM »
Sum of forces is definitively not the same. Ice and water does not respond in the same way to winds. And there is also hydrostatic equilibrium, 100 hPa is worth one meter of sea level, but zero point zero meter of ice level. And of course in the end gravity would even out the sea level if the winds stop blowing.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 06, 2019, 10:25:02 AM »
That's a low pressure system so it causes dispersion -- the opposite of compaction.

On your figure, I suggest you redraw your arrows at 45 degrees to the right of the actual wind directions displayed -- which is the direction the ice goes (Coriolis) -- and then you will see the dispersion.

It's pretty trippy how a low-pressure system which should intuitively drag stuff inwards to fill the void, actually ends up pushing things away instead.
It actually isn't... A low pressure system creates a bulge on the ocean surface, so ice would have to travel up a slope to get to the center of that bulge. High pressure systems create a dent in the ocean surface, so the ice falls into that pit towards the center...

I'm pretty sure this is completely inaccurate, but can there be some truth to this?


Try reading this article about Ekman Transport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ekman_transport

Movements on a spinning sphere aren't always intuitive

29
Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: September 04, 2019, 08:09:27 AM »
Mmmm ... one effect i did not expect, on the upside: coastal dunes actually greening and stabilizing

doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.103026

"Initial large areas of bare mobile sand within the main dune field are broken into isolated basins separated by vegetation. These basins then gradually reduce in size as vegetation colonises the margins, creating a predominantly stable dune landscape. "

"Worldwide, continental wind speeds have decreased by 5–15% during the last 30 years, and are generally expected to continue decreasing during the 21st-century "

"Our analysis points to a clear ‘greening’ of coastal dunes over the past three decades"

"The synchronous period of global wind stilling reduces fluxes of wind-blown sand and creates the stability necessary to enable vegetation to colonise bare dune sand. "

"This ironically may have implications for how coastal erosion scenarios play out in the future with sediments not being allowed to migrate inland and some dune fringed coasts may accumulate more sand at their seaward edge than normal, effectively lessening their erosional potential as a result of buffering up dune erosion response to storms."

sidd

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 31, 2019, 02:05:18 PM »
Played around with the gain and gamma a little. This is the clearest i could get.

Let's go crazy and proclaim you can even see a helicopter flying around.

31
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: August 30, 2019, 05:52:43 PM »
Hero of the day: Zxy

With their help, i think i found Oden.

Pic 1: A bright spot on 27th where Oden was supposed to be.
Pic 2: A bright spot on 28th where Oden was supposed to be.
Pic 3: A bright spot on 29th where Oden was supposed to be.
Pic 4: Oden location logs (via https://oden.geo.su.se/map/).


32
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: August 19, 2019, 11:10:01 PM »

Here's a map of the ups and downs.

33
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: August 19, 2019, 06:11:15 PM »
When a hurricane approaches, the air tingles. The sea does strange things. In minutes, the sky can turn from azure blue to slate gray. Turbulence comes out of nowhere. You can picture what follows, and many photographers do, but you will find no images of catastrophe in Anastasia Samoylova’s “FloodZone.” She is looking for other things, the subtler signs of what awaits the populations that cluster along shorelines. What is it to live day by day on a climatic knife’s edge? What psychological state does it demand? Hurricanes are sudden and violent; sea-level rise is insidious and creeping. The low-level dread of slow change, and the shock of sudden extremes. Climate and weather.
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/photo-booth/life-in-miami-on-the-knifes-edge-of-climate-change-anastasia-samoylova

AUG 20
What U.S. Cities Facing Climate Disaster Risks Are Least Prepared?
New studies find cities most vulnerable to climate change disasters—heat waves, flooding, rising seas, drought—are the least prepared.
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/08/climate-impacts-resilient-cities-environmental-justice/596251/

Residents of Central America’s Dry Corridor are at a crossroads: stay in the drought-stricken region, where food insecurity and violence are rampant, or migrate.
Running along the Pacific Coast, the Dry Corridor includes parts of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. According to the United Nations’ World Food Program (WFP), climate change is causing increasingly severe dry spells in the drought-prone region. 
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/hotspots/hotspots-h2o-drought-and-unrest-push-residents-out-of-central-americas-dry-corridor/

34
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: August 13, 2019, 02:12:01 PM »
minor calving.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 30, 2019, 03:13:52 PM »
Oh, I was just being a little too strong in my sarcasm.  I was positive it was a glacial terminus, having boated around a few in Alaska.  It did get me to register after lurking for several years!

36
Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: July 22, 2019, 09:07:57 PM »
Thanks again everyone.
johnm33, I occasionally get incomplete contours, so I suppose I will try again, although if I zoom in that far it will be tricky to patch all the images together.
mitch, I've seen the letter sized map, I was hoping for something larger. Though it is pretty good when zoomed using acrobat. I'll try patching that together too.

I tried heavy contrast on the previous compilation and surprise, the contours are there. They are nearly all the same colour though. Here is the heavy contrast version, which satisfies me for now.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 05, 2019, 11:51:38 PM »
ECMWF is now hinting towards weak dipole. I'll await tomorrow's forecast.

This isn't entirely surprising. Medium range guidance typically underforecasts block stability. It's been a long standing bias for as long as I can remember while doing forecasting. The EC is no exception, although it's a bit better than others. Interestingly, the CMC/GEM generally agrees.

In perusing some of the forecaster's discussions in Alaska (with the record smashing heat wave there), NWS Anchorage mentions this as well:

In general, we prefer the Canadian solution for the ridge to break
down slower, given the lack of any strong mid or upper level
disturbances to break down the ridge or displace it as fast as
some models suggest. Typically, when one of these weather
patterns gets "locked in place" the models struggle with pattern
change and are all too often too quick to make said change. This in
turn keeps temperatures warmer for a longer period of time.



The ensembles have generally moved towards longer block duration over the past few runs as well and that kind of dprog/dt is usually a warning sign.

38
"I would also guess that in the southeastern USA wet bulb temps would approach the 94ºF unsurvivabe mark as well."

Perhaps, but most of the highest wbt/heat index records set in the US have been in the Midwest or even  upper Midwest:

"...during the July heat wave of 1995 that the highest dew point of all was measured in the Upper Midwest: 90° at Appleton, Wisconsin at 5 p.m. on July 13th of that summer. The air temperature stood at 101° in Appleton at that time leading to a heat index reading of 148°, perhaps the highest such reading ever measured in the United States..."

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-dew-point-temperatures.html

Crop transpiration seems to be a major factor here.


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 19, 2019, 11:18:49 PM »
Note that condensation of water releases a huge amount of latent heat, enough to melt 7x its mass of ice. Its the difference between 334 J/g and 2230 J/g. In context the heat capacity for water is 4.186 J/g°C.


40
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 17, 2019, 11:57:24 PM »

In Iraq the southern province of Maysan recorded a 55.6 degrees Celsius.

..

This is an erroneous reading. It shows up still on Ogimet as the 12Z reading that day.

It was disregarded and the max for the day was 46.2 C

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 25, 2019, 09:13:22 PM »
Hi HelloMeteor,

If your interested in understanding shortwave radiation and longwave radiation downwelling effects on sea ice this rather comprehensive text will enlighten you on the subject at length.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0238.1


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 24, 2019, 06:18:06 AM »
ASCAT arctic sea ice comparison 2012, 2016, 2018 and 2019 Jan1–May22
click zoom icon to expand

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 19, 2019, 07:47:59 PM »
About albedo effect of BOE.
3.0 M km2, 102 W/m2, 107 s (~4 months of sunshine in year). This is enough to melt 9000 Gt per year. Currently, the volume loss is only about 400 km3 (~400 Gt) per year.

44
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: April 23, 2019, 01:49:47 AM »
The Antarctic Bedrock data was over 10 times harder to align than Greenland. There are hardly any landmarks, just plain white and with fast ice or ice shelfs you don't even know where the land begins. I had to use huge area images to align islands and then cut it down to individual glaciers. The bedrock resolution is just 1km/px as opposed to 0.15km/px for Greenland data.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/Bedrock-Antarctica

45
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: March 15, 2019, 07:50:44 AM »
I have noticed that links posted now include a bit that goes "?fbclid=" followed by a long string. That string is a facebook tracker.

for example:

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-young-people-call-for-buying-boycott-in-climate-change-protest-Boycott-Citoyen?fbclid=IwAR1FmFU8BfGyqTbDMhks920qGTrxMU9VxaGjINKlPO-yX-6l43wXWSgT5dc

the link allows facebook (and probably the rest of NSAgoofacetwit) knows exactly where the poster saw that link. So now they know also that anyone who clicks that link saw that particular post. Und so weiter.

Please strip goofacetwit trackers off the end of your links. Just that link without everything after and including the "?fbclid=" works fine. For now.

So a perfectly good link is

https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-young-people-call-for-buying-boycott-in-climate-change-protest-Boycott-Citoyen

without the facebook tracker.

But of course i notice that the link target also has a facebook tracker. So if you clicked on the link with the "?fbclid=" bit included,  then facebook knows which link you saw, and who posted it. Your browser probably sends the referrer tag, so they know you saw it on nevens arctic forum.

if you stripped out  the tracker and cut and pasted the rest into an anonymous browser window, then they get your IP and browser fingerprint. (They got those in both previous cases also)

(I notice that reuters and a couple other sites now make unstrippable tags like that, so one needs cleverer defense.)

I am probably boring people, so i will stop.

sidd

46
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 21, 2019, 08:38:18 PM »
Shared Humanity, longwalks1 - Back in 80-90's I worked as an environmental and forensic toxicologist and we investigated the human exposure from PFOA by Dupont's Teflon manufacture. I can tell you without reservation, that if your reading this, you have measurable levels of PFOA and PFAS in your bloodstream.

Here is some background on Perfluoroalkyl Sulfonates (PFAS) and Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) - a precursor of Teflon, two of the thousands of Toxic Perfluoroalkyl Substances in our environment ...

PFAS chemicals still exist in the environment because they are not easily broken down or degraded. They are toxic, persistent (stable) and can bioaccumulate in organisms.

PFAS contamination is often found near sites where it was produced or used by industries and on military bases. PFAS contaminants are water-soluble and easily infiltrate the soil into groundwater (ATSDR 2017) and find their way into adjacent waters.

When humans and other animals consume water or food containing PFAS, these chemicals can remain in the body for many years after exposure (Bruton and Blum 2017). The ATSDR (ATSDR 2017) has reviewed multiple studies and identified possible effects from exposure to PFAS in water and food, including effects on growth, developmental effects to fetuses, interferences with hormones, increases in cholesterol and immune system effects. Exposure can also lead to increased risk of liver, kidney and testicular cancer. In animals, potential health effects may include renal and liver toxicity, cancer, immune suppression, reproductive and developmental effects and mortality and delayed development of offspring (Bruton and Blum 2017).

Think DDT squared

A Must Read: The Lawyer Who Became DuPont’s Worst Nightmare
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/10/magazine/the-lawyer-who-became-duponts-worst-nightmare.html

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Just months before Rob Bilott made partner at Taft Stettinius & Hollister, he received a call on his direct line from a cattle farmer. The farmer, Wilbur Tennant of Parkersburg, W.Va., said that his cows were dying left and right. He believed that the DuPont chemical company, which until recently operated a site in Parkersburg that is more than 35 times the size of the Pentagon, was responsible. Tennant had tried to seek help locally, he said, but DuPont just about owned the entire town. He had been spurned not only by Parkersburg’s lawyers but also by its politicians, journalists, doctors and veterinarians.

DuPont purchased a 66 acre property from the Tennants rechristed Dry Run Landfill, named after the creek that ran through it. The same creek flowed down to a pasture where the Tennants grazed their cows. Not long after the sale, Wilbur told Bilott, the cattle began to act deranged.

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... ‘‘I’ve taken two dead deer and two dead cattle off this ripple,’’ Tennant said. ‘‘The blood run out of their noses and out their mouths. ... They’re trying to cover this stuff up. ... The video shows a large pipe running into the creek, discharging green water with bubbles on the surface. ‘‘This is what they expect a man’s cows to drink on his own property,’’

Bilott watched the video and looked at photographs for several hours. He saw cows with stringy tails, malformed hooves, giant lesions protruding from their hides and red, receded eyes; cows suffering constant diarrhea, slobbering white slime the consistency of toothpaste, staggering bowlegged like drunks. Tennant always zoomed in on his cows’ eyes. ‘‘This cow’s done a lot of suffering,’’ he would say, as a blinking eye filled the screen.

‘‘This is bad,’’ Bilott said to himself. ‘‘There’s something really bad going on here.’’

... ‘‘I started seeing a story,’’ Bilott said. ‘‘I may have been the first one to actually go through them all [the evidence]. It became apparent what was going on: They had known for a long time that this stuff was bad.’’

Bilott could not believe the scale of incriminating material that DuPont had sent him. The company appeared not to realize what it had handed over. ‘‘It was one of those things where you can’t believe you’re reading what you’re reading,’’ he said. ‘‘That it’s actually been put in writing. It was the kind of stuff you always heard about happening but you never thought you’d see written down.’’ ...
It gets better ... :'(

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PFAS Levels at NJ Base 24,000 Times Higher Than Proposed Fed Standard — Study
https://www.njspotlight.com/stories/18/10/04/pfas-levels-at-nj-base-24-000-times-higher-than-proposed-federal-standard-study-says/

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Toxic ‘Forever Chemicals’ in Drinking Water Leave Military Families Reeling
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/22/us/military-water-toxic-chemicals.html

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... All told, 10 million people could be drinking water laced with high levels of PFAS, according to Patrick Breysse, a top official at the federal Centers for Disease Control. Mr. Breysse has called the presence of the chemicals “one of the most seminal public health challenges” of the coming decades.

... frustration persists. The military never alerted all of the people who drank polluted water, meaning some are still in the dark. When asked how many people were affected by contamination, Ms. Sullivan said she “couldn’t hazard a guess.”

We’re tracking water sources,” she said, “not people.

... a growing movement of veterans and others,.. are asking the military test their blood for the chemicals, hoping to bring results to their doctors or use them in lawsuits.

Their requests have been denied, and the military says that too little is known about the substances to make the results useful.
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... “They don’t want to know,” said Cindi Ashbeck, 56, a veteran who worked out of Wurtsmith Air Force Base in Michigan. “It’s not being addressed, because you open that can of worms, and you’ve got an Agent Orange thing on your hands.”

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The U.S. Military Plans to Keep Incinerating Toxic Firefighting Foam, Despite Health Risks 
https://static.theintercept.com/amp/toxic-firefighting-foam-pfas-pfoa.html

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... The Air Force itself acknowledged in a 2017 document that the foam, which was designed to resist extremely high temperatures, is hard to burn and that “the high-temperature chemistry of PFOS and PFOA has not been characterized, so there is no precedent to predict products of pyrolysis or combustion, temperatures at which these will occur, or the extent of destruction that will be realized.”

Even more concerning, “environmentally unsatisfactory” byproducts may be created by incinerating the foam. Among the highly toxic byproducts of PFAS incineration are hydrofluoric acid, which burns human skin on contact; perfluoroisobutylene, a chemical that so reliably kills people within hours of being inhaled that it’s been used as a warfare agent; as well as dioxins and furans, which cause cancer. ....

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3M Knew About the Dangers of PFOA and PFOS Decades Ago, Internal Documents Show
https://theintercept.com/2018/07/31/3m-pfas-minnesota-pfoa-pfos/

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Children’s Exposure to PFAS Chemicals Begins in the Womb
https://www.ewg.org/news-and-analysis/2019/02/children-s-exposure-pfas-chemicals-begins-womb

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Cancer-Causing Compounds Found In Alligators, Dolphins, Wildlife at Kennedy Space Center
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/environment/lagoon/2018/08/24/cancer-alligators-dolphins-kennedy-space-center/934923002/

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PFAS in Drinking Water: Hazardous at Ever-Lower Levels
https://www.ewg.org/news-and-analysis/2019/02/pfas-drinking-water-hazardous-ever-lower-levels

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PFAS 'Do Not Eat' Fish Advisory Issued For Sites on Huron River in Oakland, Livingston and Washtenaw Michigan Counties
https://www.theoaklandpress.com/lifestyles/health/pfas-do-not-eat-fish-advisory-issued-for-sites-on/article_af75b526-9980-11e8-b0fc-572d36d11897.html

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Map | Here are Confirmed PFAS Threats to Michigan Water
https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/map-here-are-confirmed-pfas-threats-michigan-water

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Michigan’s list of contaminated sites is likely to grow as the state continues to test all public water systems and schools that tap well water.


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Trump EPA Won’t Limit Chemicals Found In Alabama Drinking Water, Report Says
https://www.al.com/news/2019/01/trump-epa-wont-limit-chemicals-found-in-alabama-drinking-water-report-says.html

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EPA Nominee’s Inaction On Water Contaminants is Troubling
https://www.newsday.com/opinion/editorial/epa-nominee-s-inaction-on-water-contaminants-is-troubling-1.26685592

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The federal government continues to abdicate its responsibility to protect the nation’s health and environment. EPA acting head Andrew Wheeler, one of several agency officials who once lobbied for industry, refuses to act on PFOA and PFOSs.

Now it’s the Environmental Protection Agency’s apparent refusal to set drinking-water limits for PFOS (perfluorooctane sulfonate) and PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid), which have been linked to kidney and testicular cancer, among other ailments. The Trump administration last year tried to block an EPA report that found the tap water of at least 16 million Americans contains unsafe levels of the chemicals, found in firefighting foam and Teflon-coated cookware.

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The intervention by Scott Pruitt’s aides came after one White House official warned the findings would cause a ‘public relations nightmare.'
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/14/emails-white-house-interfered-with-science-study-536950

This issue is probably one reason Michael Dourson withdrew his nomination to head the EPA’s chemical regulation branch. Two North Carolina senators opposed the nomination largely because he had worked for industry on a related chemical known as GenX.

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Worrisome Nonstick Chemicals are Common in U.S. Drinking Water, Federal Study Suggests
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/worrisome-nonstick-chemicals-are-common-us-drinking-water-federal-study-suggests

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To the EPA, ‘Forever Chemicals’ Are a Big Problem Now
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/to-the-epa-forever-chemicals-are-a-big-problem-now/2019/02/14/c73d8e10-3073-11e9-8781-763619f12cb4_story.html

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What do you do about lab-made chemicals that are in 99 percent of people in the U.S. and have been linked to immune system problems and cancer? Whose bonds are so stable that they’re often called “forever chemicals”? Meet PFAS, a class of chemicals that some scientists call the next PCB or DDT. ...

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EPA: GenX Nearly as Toxic as Notorious Non-Stick Chemicals It Replaced
https://www.ewg.org/release/epa-genx-nearly-toxic-notorious-non-stick-chemicals-it-replaced

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Chemours Is Using The U.S. As An Unregulated Dump for Europe’s Toxic GenX Waste
https://theintercept.com/2019/02/01/chemours-genx-north-carolina-netherlands/

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'Forever' chemicals leave costly water problem in 'Twin Cities', and across the country
https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/02/14/pfas-leaves-costly-water-problem-in-bemidji-and-other-cities

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Chemical made by 3M, other firms, forces Bemidji to abandon water wells
http://www.businessnorth.com/minnesota_public_radio/chemical-made-by-m-other-firms-forces-bemidji-to-abandon/article_1a72cbaa-3145-11e9-bee7-9bd833ba858e.html

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PFASs Seen as Biggest Emerging Chemical Issue for US States
https://chemicalwatch.com/62977/pfass-seen-as-biggest-emerging-chemical-issue-for-us-states

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Hundreds of Unrecognized Halogenated Contaminants Discovered in Polar Bear Serum
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-hundreds-unrecognized-halogenated-contaminants-polar.html

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This Is How Perfluorinated Substance Pollution Is Distributed In Spain
https://phys.org/news/2017-11-perfluorinated-substance-pollution-spain.html



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OBTW if you see any article by the American Council on Science and Health on this subject consider the source ...

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The American Council on Science and Health (ACSH) is a pro-industry[2][3][4] nonprofit advocacy organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Council_on_Science_and_Health

ACSH frequently advocates against regulating chemicals without scientific proof of harm. A 2009 editorial by board member Henry Miller in Investor's Business Daily criticized the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s employment of the precautionary principle to regulate chemicals such as bisphenol-A, phthalates, flame retardants, the herbicide atrazine and fluorinated chemicals used to make Teflon, all of which he described as "important and demonstrably safe".

In 2013, leaked internal financial documents revealed that 58% of the ACSH's donations in the period from July 1, 2012 to December 20, 2012 came from corporations and large private foundations, many of which themselves had ties to industries.[3] Donors included Chevron, Coca-Cola, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Bayer Cropscience, Procter & Gamble, Syngenta, 3M, McDonald's and Altria.[3] In addition, the documents revealed that the organization had on numerous occasions directly solicited donations from industry sources on the basis of projected reports on the specific issues in which those companies and industry organizations had such a stake.[3]

In 2017, 26 health, environmental, labor and public interest groups sent a letter to US Today, asking them to "refrain from publishing further columns authored by members of the American Council on Science and Health, or at the very least require that the individuals identify the organization accurately as a corporate-funded advocacy group"

Gilbert Ross, ACSH's former medical director, served time in federal prison and had his medical license revoked for Medicare fraud before being hired by ACSH ... (wholesome people one and all)

47
The linked reference provides further insights on the interaction (and timescales) between (of) Arctic sea ice loss and the bipolar seesaw mechanism:

Wei Liu et al, (26 December 2018), "Timescales and mechanisms of global climate impacts of Arctic sea ice loss mediated by the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation", Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080602

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL080602

Abstract
We explore the global impacts of Arctic sea ice decline in climate model perturbation experiments focusing on the temporal evolution of induced changes. We find that climate response to a realistic reduction in sea ice cover varies dramatically between shorter decadal and longer multi‐decadal to centennial timescales. During the first two decades, when atmospheric processes dominate, sea ice decline induces a “bipolar seesaw” pattern in surface temperature with warming in the Northern and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, leading to a northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and an expansion of Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, on multi‐decadal and longer timescales, the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, caused by upper‐ocean buoyancy anomalies spreading from the Arctic, mediates direct sea ice impacts and nearly reverses the original response pattern outside the Arctic. The Southern Hemisphere warms, a Warming Hole emerges in the North Atlantic, the ITCZ shifts southward, and Antarctic sea ice contracts.

Plain Language Summary
To understand how the recent Arctic sea ice decline may affect global climate, we conduct model experiments in which we modify the properties of Arctic sea ice, in order to simulate an Arctic sea ice loss similar to the observed. We find that climate response shows dramatically different patterns during different periods after the imposed sea ice decline. During the first one or two decades, Arctic sea ice decline allows more solar energy into the Northern Hemisphere (NH), altering the Earth's energy balance. As the NH warms while the Southern Hemisphere (SH) cools, the tropical rain belt moves northward and Antarctic sea ice expands. However, after several more decades to a century, the impacts from changes in the deep ocean become more important and eventually overwhelm the direct effects of sea ice loss on the atmosphere. The weakening of the Atlantic deep ocean circulation causes a cooling in the North Atlantic and a warming in the SH. Antarctic sea ice contracts and the tropical rain belt shifts back to it original position and further south.

48
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 22, 2018, 06:02:17 AM »
During the Sangamon interglacial, rivers flowed north into the Arctic dumping organic material onto the shelves. At the start of the last glacial, ice dams formed, forcing the rivers to flow south. The sea level in the Arctic dropped exposing the shelves. The shelves remained exposed throughout the last glacial, and as the Holocene began, glacial meltwater turned the shelves first into a wetland, then with the rise of sea level, the shelves were submerged.

The permafrost that formed throughout the last glacial began to degrade even before the shelves were submerged as thermokarst lakes and rivers formed taliks. Much like is happening to terrestrial permafrost today.

Once submerged, the new warmer subsea environment, the salinity (think what happens when you put salt on a frozen doorstep), and geothermal flux from below, worked over the last 8,000 years to degrade the permafrost to the point that it now is pourous, and even totally gone in places, over an area of 2 million sq km.

Much of the methane hydrates that formed over the last 100,000 years since the Sangamon, dissociated, leaving a large reservoir of free methane gas under pressure, prevented from releasing only by the layer of permafrost which until now had acted as a cap.

Since the shelf is on average about 50 meters deep, any methane released does not interact with the water column, but releases directly to the atmosphere.

This is the end result of a geological process that has been going on for thousands of years and is a part of a natural cycle.

Over the last decade, the size of the areas releasing methane has increased and the amount being released has accelerated.

The release of just 1% of the available free methane on the shelf is enough to cause catastrophic warming.

Since there is no way to refreeze the degrading permafrost cap, the methane release is inevitable.  There is no way to shut it off.  And the methane will continue to release until there is no more left to release.   

Whoever is questioning the decades of observations and research conducted by Semiletov and Shakhova haven't got a clue.  Semiletov is the head of the far eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.  Dozens of scientists have participated in this research.   

If you have research papers providing rebuttal to their work, post it.

Just saying "some people say" doesn't cut it around here.
 
Here, we present research papers and discuss them.         

   

49
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 21, 2018, 06:04:46 PM »
A little here to support "Insurance companies base rates on past experience" and a little to support "Insurance companies base rates on future expectations not represented by past experience":

Climate Change Is Forcing the Insurance Industry to Recalculate
Wall Street Journal - Published Oct. 2, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. ET
Quote
Insurers are at the vanguard of a movement to put a value today on the unpredictable future of a warming planet


The effects of the planet’s slow heating are diffuse. Predictions of the fallout are imprecise, and the drivers are debated. But faced with the prospect of a warming planet, the world of business and finance is starting to put a price on climate change.

For the most part, insurers are acting on climate change by building models that aim to better estimate the impact. That leaves the industry with the tough question of how to reflect in premiums the new understandings of the underlying risk.


For most insurers, rates aren’t rising—yet. A flood of capital into the industry from pension and hedge-fund investors, driven by low interest rates, has increased competition and pushed down property-catastrophe reinsurance prices in the past decade.

And property insurance and reinsurance contracts typically last one year, so an insurer can recalibrate yearly as risks change. “Global warming may be occurring. Probably is,” says Warren Buffett, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has a major reinsurance business. “But it hasn’t hurt the reinsurance industry. And people are pricing still as if it won’t, on a one-year basis.”

If reinsurance contracts covered 30 years, he says, “I’d be crazy not to” include the risks.
...
Big insurers are expanding teams of in-house climatologists, computer scientists and statisticians to redesign models to incorporate the effect of the warming earth on hailstorms, hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. Insurers such as Swiss Re Group say hurricanes like Harvey and Florence, which caused widespread flooding, could represent a more common occurrence in the coming decades.

Climate change may be gradual, but the effects are volatile, meaning a company could become exposed to a large, unexpected hit if it doesn’t understand the changing risks, says Junaid Seria, head of catastrophe-model research and development and governance at Paris-based reinsurer Scor SE.
...

50
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: November 15, 2018, 06:48:53 AM »
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/156/meteorology/ifs-upgrade-brings-more-seamless-coupled-forecasts
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On 5 June 2018, ECMWF implemented a substantial upgrade of its Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). IFS Cycle 45r1 brings coupling to all ECMWF forecasts, from forecast day 1 to one year, by including the three-dimensional ocean and sea-ice model in the single high-resolution forecast (HRES). This is a further step towards the implementation of the 2016–2025 Strategy, whose goals include a more complete and seamless description of the Earth system across all ECMWF configurations.

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