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Messages - PSJ

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2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 23, 2019, 08:18:27 PM »
So 2019 was 2nd lowest in the satellite record.

But look at the Central Arctic Sea (Total size 3.22 million km2).

Area - 4th lowest at end August and now 13th lowest, and area currently more than 600,000 km2 greater than 2012,

Extent - 10th lowest at end August and now 12th lowest, and extent currently more than 300,000 km2 greater than 2012.


That means the other seas really did lose a lot of ice.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 22, 2019, 05:52:07 AM »
Sorry for not posting yesterday.  :-\
A lot of things happened, but not bad.
The worst part: a bolt of lightning destroyed my internet connection (I was not at home, anyway, but this can complicate posting for some days). I am using my mobile to connect now with you.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 21st, 2019:
     4,091,591 km2, an increase of 37,188 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 16, 2019, 05:07:50 PM »
Not just Greta:
Green with rage: Women climate change leaders face online attacks
https://theconversation.com/green-with-rage-women-climate-change-leaders-face-online-attacks-123155
Quote
Women leaders who support climate action are being attacked online with increasing regularity. These attacks should be viewed as a problem not only for the planet, but also to the goals of achieving gender equality and more inclusive, democratic politics.

Teen activist Greta Thunberg takes her youth climate campaign to Washington
https://beta.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/09/13/teen-activist-greta-thunberg-takes-her-youth-climate-campaign-washington/
Quote
Before her latest strike, in front of the White House on Friday, Thunberg sat for an interview with The Washington Post. She spoke about how the climate debate is different in the United States, whether she considers herself an optimist and how she approaches the criticism that has accompanied her meteoric rise over the past year.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 12:58:03 AM »
PIOMAS volume provides monthly data, soon... DMI does have a daily tracker. I searched the forum for any comments on its validity and didn't see anything concerning, feel free to correct me.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20190828.png

I am waiting for this, will help tell us how much of the stall is due to dispersion vs a real stall in melting.
Biases in PIOMAS are discussed here:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/validation/

PIOMAS won't help a lot at this stage because it overstates the volume of thin ice. With more thin ice widely distributed the PIOMAS volume estimate may hold up despite a reality of less ice. The last few days appear to have spread the ice and lowered the concentration which will lead to an increase in the error in the PIOMAS estimate.

As the attached graph shows the over estimate of volume, on ice below 1m thick according to  submarine measurements, could be double what the submarines are seeing.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:14:40 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average) :- 4,390,697 km2(August 26, 2019)

With me AWOL yesterday and JAXA AWOL today, some of you may be showing signs of data-deprivation stress. So here is an analysis of NSIDC Extent in JAXA format. However, using 5 day trailing averages. I know it is only methadone, not decent grade heroin, but it is the best I can do.


Extent loss has been dismally low for about the last 10 days, but
- Extent is still 2nd lowest in the satellite record,

- Extent is 613 k greater than 2012, 260 k less than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 13 k, 42 k less than the average loss on this day of 55 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 9,984 k, 457 k (4.8%) greater than the average of 9,527 k loss from maximum by this day,
- Extent loss from maximum to date is also second highest in at least the last 12 years, only second to 2012,
- On average 94.2% of the melting season done, with 18 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining extent loss (0.59 million km) would give a minimum of 4.05 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.66 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.39 million km2 and 0.09 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.14 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually but erratically reduce until the minimum. 

On average, each day now consumes more than 5% of the time available for further extent loss. If, as in 2017 & 2018, extent loss from now was very low, the final minimum could be in 4th place, 2012, 2016 and 2007 being lower..
____________________________________________________________

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 11:57:55 PM »
I struggle to reconcile the near-flatlining of some metrics with what I see in Worldview, and particularly what I see in petm & Aluminium's invaluable animated contributions. This is my morning meditation, staring at those, and I don't see a single day yet when the ice doesn't seem like it's still fading. Lately, it sure is jostling about mightily. NE of Greenland looks very weird to me.

In this case i recommend to use satellite imagery to get more input for better assessment. If you do it on a daily basis you'll get the whole picture, rarely at a glace because there are often more clouds than blue skies. Nevertheless one can get a reasonable idea as to what means what on those maps.

Satellites (preset):

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20190614235053&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=eumetsat_natural_color&x=18167.7294921875&y=20649.22265625

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-7707446.425196851,-4198432.251968504,7707446.425196851,4198432.251968504&p=arctic&t=2019-07-27-T00%3A00%3A00Z&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels,Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=481065.626358435,-741747.5892417862,762601.5131812957,-588388.1907956966&p=arctic&t=2019-08-20-T03%3A37%3A36Z&t1=2019-08-20-T10%3A33%3A56Z&l=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&l1=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&ca=false&cm=spy

https://zoom.earth/#view=80.6,-102.2,4z/date=2019-08-24,am/layers=labels,crosshairs

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 11:59:57 AM »
By cutting clouds from the top image I made a crude composite of the past 2 days from Worldview of The Eurasian side across to a bit past the pole. There must be a million km2 of dispersed rubble and/or slush between the Laptev sector(where the Atlantic water is?) and the Pacific fringe.

But unlike some earlier years  no Wrangel arms or anything beyond the ESS Big Blob exposed to attack from all sides. Quite a bit of this stuff could survive(barely), and then be covered by a big dump of snow in the next storm.

GFS is also hinting at a bomb cyclone around Kara/Laptev late in the run

9
Science / Re: Global Forest Watch
« on: August 24, 2019, 06:57:06 PM »
NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS/LANCE and GIBS/Worldview, Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data from NASA EOSDIS, and data from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED).⁣


10
I have trouble uploading data and graphs to the 'arctischepinguin' google site. So the updates will be delayed until the google errors are resolved or I have found time to do it manually.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 17, 2019, 04:17:47 PM »

A Ditty for the Damned
or
Dogrel for Denighers


Well
Greta Rules the Airwaves
Britannia Rules the Seas


but
Greta may seize the rulers
And bring 'em to their knees


As
gerontocrat's Royal standing
was challenged in the loo
With just one Royal Flushing
They'll wind up with the poo


Will
Greta and gerontocrat
An alliterative alliance make
to stamp his Royal seal
on her Gretanic zeal


That
Ship has left the harbor
if we were not onboard
the next stop is Perdition
without the world's accord


If
Greta's stopped
our naked feet
Will blister in the heat
and melt plumb off amid the fray
If there's an ounce of clay


May all the winds that drive her ship
be following, steady and strong
May all denighers flub their lines
And finally admit they're wrong


Ramen!
Terry

12
Policy and solutions / Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 15, 2019, 08:11:01 AM »
You may have heard of Greta Thunberg's plan to attend the UN climate summits in New York and Chile. She is determined to make the voyage carbon-free. To do this, she attempts to sail across the Atlantic. If successful, she will be the first person with zero sailing experience to make this trip.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-devon-49330423

Thunberg departed from Plymouth, UK yesterday. She will first go south west, then into the north Atlantic to Newfoundland, and south to New York. The journey is planned to take 14 days.

You can follow her here: https://tracker.borisherrmannracing.com/

I am a bit worried about that storm currently sitting over the Atlantic. That storm is moving to the east or south east. She may have to cross it.


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 08:34:41 PM »
Ascat with NSIDC ice age overlaid at 20% transparent, mar21-aug12. Not the cleanest animation but here attempting to highlight Oren's comment about first year ice upthread.
The ice age product is weekly and has been duplicated so that the dates should match (edit: except for this week). When this week's ice age map is released I'll try an overlay with amsr2 which should be cleaner.
ice age colours are altered slightly by the transparency

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 12, 2019, 07:51:15 AM »
Here are a couple of photos I got while flying over the Arctic, from Toronto to Hong Kong on August 1st. (yes, I feel bad about flying due to emissions, but it's not a vacation, we've moved to Jakarta for my wife's work. we will also buy some offsets to try to compensate a bit.)

We were trying to sleep through the 15 hour overnight flight, but I managed to some how wake myself up at the right time to open the window blind and blind myself with the glare.

Again, taken on Aug. 1st, somewhere between Greenland and the North Pole. It seems like a lot of water visible in the leads for this area, even for this time of year. Maybe it's normal recently, but I can't imagine it would've been normal when this area used to be dominated by multiyear ice.

If you want to see the full size images, DM me and I'll email them to you.

cheers,
m

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 10, 2019, 01:29:48 PM »
For some Folks not uninteresting


Data: ftp://ftp.remss.com/sst/daily/mw_ir/v05.0/netcdf/ (need for registry)
Red: 2019 warmer
Blue: 2019 cooler


https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/netcdf/

Red: 2019 more SIC
Blue: 2019 less SIC

16
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 08, 2019, 04:59:19 PM »
it's not about threading needles .. it's about needless threads designed to needle .. someone has the option of saying .. NIMBY or NIMBF  .. Not in my bloody forum .. Neven .. b.c.

17
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 08, 2019, 03:30:48 PM »
Fully agree with wili. It's not easy.

In my opinion the new leftist thread should be deleted.

18
The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 01:38:31 AM »


Hey, Blumenkraut, do you agree or disagree with your Stalinist friends about the ERADICATION of Trump supporters?


There is no place for this in a civilized community. Kraut is a perjorative insult aimed at the German people as a whole and equivalent to calling someone a  nigger, spic or kike.

Simply unacceptable that the moderator will allow individuals on the forum to be the subject of racial or ethnic slurs like this.

19
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: July 28, 2019, 02:43:59 PM »
The GRACE-FO data analyses mass loss by 25 Drainage Basins - (graph attached).

NASA (IceSat) have divided Antarctica into 27 Drainage basins. (map attached).

mass loss is highest by far in basins 20, 21 and 22. Do they look as if they match the NASA IceSat basins?



20
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:42:19 PM »
GRACE-FO is producing updated Ice-sheet mass loss data at

ftp://isdcftp.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo/GravIS/GFZ/Level-3/ICE/AIS/

The full file includes a lot more detail that I have not yet looked at. I think it divides Antarctica up into basins.

So here is a summary graph. There is a data gap from June 17 to May 18, and regularly monthly updates only started this year.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 25, 2018, 02:14:15 PM »
Double century drop. Nice!

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 20, 2018, 09:53:22 PM »
The temperature of the central arctic ocean in summer is pegged to the melting point, as long as ice is still there. Moreover, when the ice is covered with snow, the air is pegged to 0oC, but when the snow is gone and the ice is in partial melt the air is pegged to -1.8oC. So your "cooler summer temps" are nothing but a mirage signalling the deterioration of the arctic.

BTW -- my preferred definition of an ice free Arctic is when the DMI 80N is no longer pegged near 0 in Summer.  When there is no longer enough ice to keep it cold then it is effectively ice free.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 11:04:09 AM »
Quote from Uniquorn (image and text): An update now the weather is clearer. Jun3-11

Not only is the melt impressive but also the amount of warm water rushing north. Seems that this years's impressive snowcover is now reversing its effect ...

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