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Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 19, 2019, 07:40:38 PM »

This point could have been made far more succinctly

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 15, 2019, 02:54:47 PM »

I disagree on several counts.

The “we” in both cases is a generic we of unassigned humanity looking at the problem.

More than that I reject flatly your assertion that members of this community are “more alarmist”.

“More alarmed” is correct. “Alarmist” as used in English today is a derogatory valuation of the state of alarm. Far from being alarmist, the vast majority of those participating in this forum are stark realists. Alarm in the context you use it is generally a statement about something the writer takes as being a wrong headed and unjustified emotional reaction.

Clearly many of us are having emotional reactions to the terrifying changes we are seeing and to the most likely consequences of those observed changes and trends. That does not make them “alarmist” statements in the pejorative sense that you seem to intend.

I find it more concerning that this sort of language use has become the stock and trade of political and financial interests hell bent on maintaining their rapacious ways without regard to the consequences.

And there’s is in my opinion no place for that in the discussion.


Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:18:05 AM »
What happens to me is not very important. As they advised those in New Orleans recently, "Shelter in place."

Spending a lot of fuel moving everyone around is just going to exacerbate things further. But then, I've had a good full life, so I can't judge others' desires to extend theirs.

As Neven pointed out, people are anxious about their own survival mostly out of fear of death. But death is one thing, in this uncertain world, that we can all be 100% certain of.

The rest / Re: The problem of social media
« on: July 04, 2019, 09:46:39 PM »
This has been beaten to death a long time ago. I suggest Mill "On Liberty," Chapter 2. Is it taught in schools anymore ? I fear not.

"If all mankind minus one, were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind."

"All silencing of discussion is an assumption of infallibility."

"Strange it is, that men should admit the validity of the arguments for free discussion, but object to their being "pushed to an extreme;" not seeing that unless the reasons are good for an extreme case, they are not good for any case. Strange that they should imagine that they are not assuming infallibility, when they acknowledge that there should be free discussion on all subjects which can possibly be doubtful, but think that some particular principle or doctrine should be forbidden to be questioned because it is so certain, that is, because they are certain that it is certain."

" For even this doctrine acknowledges that mankind ought to have a rational assurance that all objections have been satisfactorily answered; and how are they to be answered if that which requires to be answered is not spoken? or how can the answer be known to be satisfactory, if the objectors have no opportunity of showing that it is unsatisfactory?"

"If there are any persons who contest a received opinion, or who will do so if law or opinion will let them, let us thank them for it, open our minds to listen to them, and rejoice that there is some one to do for us what we otherwise ought, if we have any regard for either the certainty or the vitality of our convictions, to do with much greater labor for ourselves."

"First, if any opinion is compelled to silence, that opinion may, for aught we can certainly know, be true. To deny this is to assume our own infallibility."

"Secondly, though the silenced opinion be an error, it may, and very commonly does, contain a portion of truth; and since the general or prevailing opinion on any subject is rarely or never the whole truth, it is only by the collision of adverse opinions that the remainder of the truth has any chance of being supplied."

"Thirdly, even if the received opinion be not only true, but the whole truth; unless it is suffered to be, and actually is, vigorously and earnestly contested, it will, by most of those who receive it, be held in the manner of a prejudice, with little comprehension or feeling of its rational grounds."

"And not only this, but, fourthly, the meaning of the doctrine itself will be in danger of being lost, or enfeebled, and deprived of its vital effect on the character and conduct: the dogma becoming a mere formal profession, inefficacious for good, but cumbering the ground, and preventing the growth of any real and heartfelt conviction, from reason or personal experience."

Read the whole thing. Or perhaps, Milton in "Aeropagitica"

" We should be wary therefore what persecution we raise against the living labours of publick men, how we spill that season'd life of man preserv'd and stor'd up in Books; since we see a kinde of homicide may be thus committed, sometimes a martyrdome, and if it extend to the whole impression, a kinde of massacre, whereof the execution ends not in the slaying of an elementall life, but strikes at that ethereall and fift essence, the breath of reason it selfe, slaies an immortality rather then a life."

"As therefore the state of man now is; what wisdome can there be to choose, what continence to forbeare without the knowledge of evill?"

"Assuredly we bring not innocence into the world, we bring impurity much rather: that which purifies us is triall, and triall is by what is contrary. That vertue therefore which is but a youngling in the contemplation of evill, and knows not the utmost that vice promises to her followers, and rejects it, is but a blank vertue, not a pure; her whitenesse is but an excrementall whitenesse"

"Since therefore the knowledge and survay of vice is in this world so necessary to the constituting of human vertue, and the scanning of error to the confirmation of truth, how can we more safely, and with lesse danger scout into the regions of sin and falsity then by reading all manner of tractats, and hearing all manner of reason? And this is the benefit which may be had of books promiscuously read."

"Truth and understanding are not such wares as to be monopoliz'd and traded in by tickets and statutes, and standards. We must not think to make a staple commodity of all the knowledge in the Land, to mark and licence it like our broad cloath, and our wooll packs. "

"that if it come to inquisitioning again, and licencing, and that we are so timorous of our selvs, and so suspicious of all men, as to fear each book, and the shaking of every leaf, before we know what the contents are, if some who but of late were little better then silenc't from preaching, shall come now to silence us from reading, except what they please, it cannot be guest what is intended by som but a second tyranny over learning"

"Where there is much desire to learn, there of necessity will be much arguing, much writing, many opinions; for opinion in good men is but knowledge in the making. Under these fantastic terrors of sect and schism, we wrong the earnest and zealous thirst after knowledge and understanding which God hath stirr'd up in this city. What some lament of, we rather should rejoyce at, should rather praise this pious forwardnes among men, to reassume the ill deputed care of their Religion into their own hands again."

"What would ye doe then, should ye suppresse all this flowry crop of knowledge and new light sprung up and yet springing daily in this City, should ye set an Oligarchy of twenty ingrossers over it, to bring a famin upon our minds again, when we shall know nothing but what is measur'd to us by their bushel?"

"it is the liberty, Lords and Commons, which your own valorous and happy counsels have purchast us, liberty which is the nurse of all great wits; this is that which hath rarify'd and enlighten'd our spirits like the influence of heav'n; this is that which hath enfranchis'd, enlarg'd and lifted up our apprehensions degrees above themselves. Ye cannot make us now lesse capable, lesse knowing, lesse eagarly pursuing of the truth, unlesse ye first make your selves, that made us so, lesse the lovers, lesse the founders of our true liberty. We can grow ignorant again, brutish, formall, and slavish, as ye found us; but you then must first become that which ye cannot be, oppressive, arbitrary, and tyrannous, as they were from whom ye have free'd us. That our hearts are now more capacious, our thoughts more erected to the search and expectation of greatest and exactest things, is the issue of your owne vertu propagated in us; ye cannot suppresse that unlesse ye reinforce an abrogated and mercilesse law, that fathers may dispatch at will their own children"

"Give me the liberty to know, to utter, and to argue freely according to conscience, above all liberties. "

"And though all the windes of doctrin were let loose to play upon the earth, so Truth be in the field, we do injuriously, by licencing and prohibiting to misdoubt her strength. Let her and Falshood grapple; who ever knew Truth put to the wors, in a free and open encounter. Her confuting is the best and surest suppressing."

"Truth is strong next to the Almighty; she needs no policies, nor stratagems, nor licencings to make her victorious, those are the shifts and the defences that error uses against her power: give her but room, & do not bind her when she sleeps, for then she speaks not true"

"We doe not see that while we still affect by all means a rigid externall formality, we may as soon fall again into a grosse conforming stupidity, a stark and dead congealment "

"if it come to prohibiting, there is not ought more likely to be prohibited then truth it self"

" And if the men be erroneous who appear to be the leading schismaticks, what witholds us but our sloth, our self-will, and distrust in the right cause, that we doe not give them gentle meeting and gentle dismissions, that we debate not and examin the matter throughly with liberall and frequent audience; if not for their sakes, yet for our own? "

"we in the hast of a precipitant zeal shall make no distinction, but resolve to stop their mouths, because we fear they come with new and dangerous opinions, as we commonly forejudge them ere we understand them, no lesse then woe to us, while thinking thus to defend the Gospel, we are found the persecutors. "


The rest / Re: The problem of social media
« on: July 04, 2019, 05:34:26 PM »
Wow.  Rather than comment about the law and human rights - here, Free Speech - I think I'll let this do the explaining far better. 

When it comes to government force policing speech, I would recommend extreme caution ... careful what you wish for, ladies and gents....

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 05:57:43 PM »

Ice south of the Fram is still counted in extent, area and volume regardless of whether it has a shipping label on it or not.
True but I think people are looking forward to the immediate future when talking about dispersion and ice export. The life expectancy of ice depends on where it is ? It is reasonable to assume that in July open water created in the CAB, for example, by Fram export will not freeze over, while the ice sent down the Fram is doomed to die pdq.

This is a problem that comes up over and over in science and in almost any discussion.  I think much can be clarified by people first defining the system they are analyzing.  So, if we define the system/area we are discussing as the CAB, then it becomes clear that spreading of ice in the CAB can be said to be dispersion, and ice spreading out the CAB can be said to be export.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 02, 2019, 04:55:14 PM »
It seems to me that we have been using the words dispersion and export quite happily for the last several years without having to wrangle about what the words actually specifically mean down in the Bayou.

As someone who speaks English as a second (or even third) language, I am at times amazed at the low quality English used by some of the native speakers on the forum, with grammatical non sequiturs, embarassing spelling mistakes and word salads that would stretch the abilities of the the greatest of sauciers to dress palatably.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:39:34 PM »
I just realised that I've been totally trolled! I've been well and truly duped into one of the stupidest discussion I've ever seen on this forum all the years I've been here.

I apologize and have hereby stopped writing on the subject.

I'm sorry, but this is only piece of the argument that I'm certain about. You weren't being trolled. I may be wrong and missing something very fundamental, but I'm not disingenuous.

You're efforts at mind-reading are a failure in this instance.

The fundamental piece you have been ignoring (not missing) is that ice floats on top of water.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 01, 2019, 02:11:20 AM »
That would be F...... AWESOME!!!

Awesome as in terrifying or awesome as in the ice is saved.  I'm not very good at reading those.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 26, 2019, 04:01:38 PM »
Area and extent are imperfect indicators, but at least can be directly and fairly reliably measured, unlike, say, volume. Area and extent numbers and maps from the various outfits that produce them (NOAA, uni Bremen, Jaxa ...) stay in general agreement while what volume maps exist are much more idiosyncratic.

My main idea is that we stop referring to changes in area and extent as "melting" or "freezing."  Volume measures, however imperfect, indicate melt or freeze.  Although long-term trends in area and extent measures are certainly correlated with melt/freeze, short term changes in the extent and area measures do not necessarily indicate overall melting or freezing situation. Extent can increase due to dispersion etc., even where there is overall melting. I think using the shorthand of "melt" or "freeze" with area and extent measures may be a source of confusion sometimes.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 24, 2019, 12:38:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,728,067 km2(June 22, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 87 k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day of 74 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,543 k, 156 k (3.6 %) greater than the average of 4,387 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 44.4% of the melting season done, with 83 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Until the last 2 days, over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.

Will above average daily extent loss be sustained?
Will area loss follow suit and return to at least average daily loss levels?

Like many another, I have been wondering why extent losses have dropped so slowly.  I think much of the reason may lie in the Barentz Sea.  Two tongues of ice have been projecting into the Barentz for some time, as the ice pack rotated away from the Pacific side and towards the Atlantic side, an unusual move.  One tongue projects between Svalbard and FJL and one between FJL and SZ.

The initial reaction was that this ice had gone to 'oblivion', into the 'killing zone', and I too was of that opinion.  In fact the ice tongues have been remarkably persistent (see the first comparative NSIDC map below, comparing June 8 and 22 this year).  No doubt this is partly because new ice is entering the Barentz, but the Barentz waters are cooler this year, and I think this may be in large part because so much ice has melted into the Barentz, forming a cold freshwater layer at the top, at least in the region of the ice.  So there ice hangs around longer than expected in the Barentz, so extent declines more slowly (the Beaufort also plays its role, but others have mentioned that).

Comparisons with June 22, 2018 (second map) and with the silver-medal-holding 2016 show how unusual this situation is.  There is a LOT of ice in the Barentz.  Will the main ice pack melt as far back as in previous years, to the continental shelf to the N of FJL etc?  That might be a big determinant as to how low extent goes this year.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 17, 2019, 08:46:39 PM »
We're not going to see major anomalies on the DMI 80n chart during summer until a nontrivial part of 80n is open water, so a lack of continuing anomaly there doesn't necessarily mean things are better or worse.

To emphasize this point, here is the DMI chart for 2012 when we recorded our current record low minimum. As long as there is ice melting, the temperature will be pegged near 0C.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 24, 2019, 07:54:38 AM »

Not meaning to be overly pedantic, just think it's a distinction worth making.

it's not overly pedantic, on the contrary, it's obvious and self-evident and this is the probable reason why it's not talked about that much.

But, that wasn't my point.

the echo to your repeated mention

Twice? LOL...

of this is not because we don't believe you, but because i for one think, yeah, sure, has been clear from day one and nobody ever said otherwise. so we fully agree

Well, of course you do! But that also was not my point...

and sometimes it's worth to remember that one fact does often not exclude another. mentioning one reason does not mean it's the only reason etc. etc.

Also not a point I had made. But thanks for the pat on the head! ;-)

hence all good you're 100% correct with your assessment.

Generally, yes. But also not my point.

My point:

When I first arrived at the SIB many years ago, the language was pretty dense, the references to places, locations, effects, resources a mess for me. I had no problem understanding the ice dynamics in and of themselves because, well, I'm neither uneducated nor of low intelligence. In fact, I posted somewhat regularly and didn't feel out of place doing so. However, the jargon, the info, the labels... tough. (Now? Ten years and little participation since 2012/13 or so has left me well behind. I won't be posting much bc you all can do better than I.)

So, if, as you say, the posters here know it all, so need not point out the obvious, then how does such a statement as this slip through?

"being in better shape,"

It's a misleading description of conditions. Thus, was the poster being a bit too colloquial/relaxed, or had the poster not realized the dynamics at play? As you should understand from my post, I assumed the latter. But, I also explained the dynamics. Why? For you? For Neven? For Hunt?

Of course not. For:
this is an important dynamic that I think a little more clarity in language will help make clear for those less versed or for newbies so they understand the ice dynamics.

Because I remember what it was like in the beginning for me and, as a teacher, I try to notice when I am stating things that are assumptions for me, but not for my audience.

And that was why I posted, not to inform you of ice dynamics, but to remind long-time posters that what is background to you is likely mysterious to new users.

Better shape? Not really. Bad news. Newbies might have missed this.


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