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Messages - Shared Humanity

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Consequences / Re: Some Troubling signs In the Eastern Atlantic
« on: December 08, 2019, 01:51:58 PM »
There's a Stupid questions thread.

Consequences / Re: Some Troubling signs In the Eastern Atlantic
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:11:22 PM »
Have you fallen on you head or bought some really bad weed?

And where do you see the cold blob?

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 13, 2019, 10:05:27 PM »
I've spotted the very camera shy Nessy. Who knew that she'd been hiding in Venice!

In la la land the snow falls thick as ice cream off a lolly stick
and every year an ice age starts , denied again by some old farts

while forecasts come and forecasts go , we only mention those with snow
all the others we ignore 'cause sunshine's such an effing bore.


Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: September 04, 2019, 05:30:39 PM »
The goal of Bezos and Ma, Amazon and Ali Baba, is to remove all friction from the consumption process.  They desire a world where more products can get into the hands of more consumers, as quickly and easily as possible. It is essentially the diametric opposite of what the world needs: slow, artisanal, localized production of products that are useful, valuable, sustainable and bring meaning to the maker and the user. Globalized, low cost, mass production and true sustainability are mutually exclusive.

Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: September 01, 2019, 03:13:35 PM »
In some ways Ma and Musk are correct.  The global capitalist economy and finance system ARE dependent on endless growth.  Government health and pension programs like Medicare and Social Security (in the US) are dependent on demographics that provide a growing population of workers to support the elderly. So, the transition to an aging and shrinking population are going to create enormous challenges for existing systems of finance and governance.  However, if we are to avoid collapse, we must tackle the demographic transition as soon as possible while replacing poorly regulated capitalism with a system that can create a sustainable future.  This is the central challenge facing humanity: transitioning from our "growth phase" to a steady state (and shrinking) phase.  To point out that this will provide a challenge to growth-based capitalism is silly, obvious and trivial.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 10:59:00 PM »
This is not a political thread. Take it to the Trump thread.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 10:18:04 PM »
Trump ... You hate him, because you don't agree with him.
That man through his actions is a real threat to the future well being of my family, perhaps even their lives. Better him dead than my family.

Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 08:42:04 PM »
Nope. Colonization of the solar system is well within the realm of science. As proof, the ISS has been continuously occupied for decades. Space is a more inhospitable environment than mars and we can already inhabit it. The trick is that it has to be continuously resupplied.

In the same way a Mars colony would have to be continuously supplied for decades or centuries. That requires a prosperous Earth. Mars is not a life boat.

Colonizing the solar system is not science fiction, it is destiny and our duty to life. Using space colonization as a life boat for climate change is science fiction.

Not science, or science fiction, Space colonization is Science Fantasy.

and ISS isn't a "proof of concept"

Salyut 1 - The 1st Space Station was launched in April 1971 and manned in June of that year.
SkyLab  - The 1st American Space Station launched in May 1973, and orbited until Feb 1974.
MIR - Launched in 1986 was the largest manmade object in space until it's deorbiting in 2001

The Salyut 7 module DOS-8 still orbits as a core module of the ISS.

In the first 48 years of Space Station history we've probably learned much more about how ill adapted to space humans are than how to overcome these barriers.


Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 07:16:11 PM »
I am just saying...I'd rather fight it on the only habitable planet of the solar system. Some people have seen too much sci-fi....turning Mars habitable will take several hundred to a thousand years with more advanced tech than today

ie Magic!

This isn't Science, this isn't Science Fiction - this is Science Fantasy with no grounding in reality.

Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 06:26:28 PM »
To people that think space is the answer, good luck with that!!

Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: August 21, 2019, 04:23:29 PM »
Neither  mars nor space can offer shelter. They are the next frontier. To conquer it we first must save ourselves from climate change.

If we show the discipline and technological prowess necessary to save ourselves from the mess we are in, space is the reward punishment for our past transgressions.
I made a minor alteration to your post. ;)

Having visited some of the most desiccated places on this planet, I can assure all that these places haven't remained uninhabited because we've built huge fences to keep people out. They're uninhabited because people don't want to live there.

The moon in a bubble? Mars in an artificial underground cavern? Someone at sometime might be forced to flee to such an environment, but their dreams would be filled with visions of idyllic times spent overwintering in Antarctica, summers at Furnace Creek in Death Valley, or being perched on a Himalayan peak where breathing bottled oxygen made life possible.

Space has been within our grasp for half a century, but has enticed no colonists. Even volcanic calderas seeping noxious gas would provide a better, safer and more enjoyable environment for our species.

Space Fantasies gripped the fancy of many a prepubescent male. Most outgrow such foolish notions.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: August 19, 2019, 07:56:56 PM »
I'll believe it when I can see the sun setting slowly in the East. 8)

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: August 12, 2019, 06:24:26 PM »
Maybe we need an 'endless discussions thread'?  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: August 11, 2019, 09:07:23 PM »
Amazing.  ;D

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: August 03, 2019, 05:58:08 PM »
It can't open without Jim Hunt declaring it so!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 04:23:28 AM »
If not one more cubic meter of ice melted or degraded for the rest of the season, I would personally not be disappointed in the slightest. It would actually be the best thing ever -- just out of sheer surprise.

That said, I also don't believe for a second any predictions about the end state of this melt season, bad or good; not yet anyways.

Why not just watch and be fascinated? We are watching in real time the collapse of a system that has been stable for thousands of years, for the entire duration of the development of modern human civilization. Even if it takes 50 years for all the ice to melt out, it would be beyond astounding. (My guess is more like 10, but who knows?) In my opinion we should reconsider our time scales.

Thank you for the kind words, Tor.

My student (now Dr. Washam) just published his last dissertation paper on Petermann Gletscher's melting processes. It appeared this week in the Journal of Glaciology and can be accessed openly free of charge at

From moored ocean observations below the ice-shelf, surface weather, and ice-penetrating radar data at hourly intervalls we concluded that

"...We attribute this enhanced melting to increased discharge of subglacial runoff into the ocean at the grounding line, which strengthens under-ice currents and drives a greater ocean heat flux toward the ice base …"

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:59:25 AM »
Thickness map, comparisons with previous years and their diff's.

You certainly want to click these to read the very small fonts (and even then...).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:33:01 AM »
Fram export  was higher than average in June.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:27:02 AM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Click for larger pictures, helps reading the tiny fonts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:17:04 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data (not the 'official' volume data yet).

Volume on 30th June was 12.05 [1000 km3], lowest value for the day of the year.

Let's animate.

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 02, 2019, 11:20:15 PM »
Brilliant article by Solomon at commondreams on buying and selling politicians: Satire ? You decide.

"Investors are pondering where to put their money this week after the sudden decline in the assessed value of presidential candidate Joe Biden."

"hopes have eroded in recent days amid reduced investor confidence. "

"many top investors felt overexposed and looked for shelter. Gathering new topline data and considering several prospectuses that had been previously submitted, investors are now reassessing assets and liabilities as well as potential growth in market share"

"Venture capitalists, hedge fund managers, powerful CEOs and other wealthy individuals ... are moving to widen financing spigots for Kamala Harris ... elevated interest in Pete Buttigieg ... Beto O’Rourke, is now considered to be too underperforming"

" goals are to quickly shore up capitalization of aligned political products and to implement sustained brand enhancement. "

" market conditions have abruptly changed "

"Wall Streeters understand that Sanders and Warren would be bad investments"

"Joe Biden ... damaged brand and a faltering business plan—prudence requires a new set of calculations"

Spot on. "capitalization of aligned political products and to implement sustained brand enhancement" indeed

I laugh, so I do not cry.


Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: July 02, 2019, 08:49:13 PM »
Streeck's argument is not that capitalism cannot be fettered at all, but that it will eventually break the fetters. As we see in the USA where legislators and regulators are bought and paid for, and increasing fractions of the citizenry ground  into voiceless penury. When reasonable change is made impossible, unreasonable change becomes inevitable.

Hedges article on Lenin has some insights into what happens then.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2019, 11:50:59 PM »
Just a quick thank you to Gerontocrat and the gang here. I’m a years-long lurker, teaching university courses on environment and am grateful to you all for the detailed and well-documented material.

To paraphrase the Washington Post’s masthead, science dies in darkness. You all keep shining the light and it is a great service to your peers.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 28, 2019, 11:33:25 AM »
I agree that the ice thickness in mid July determines who will survive in Sep.

Are we going to be shot if our predictions are wrong?  :o
No. Worse.

You will be trapped in the circular meta-discussion gyre with no parole.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 25, 2019, 01:31:38 AM »
Other threats Iran has over us: Terrorism:
Are you serious Tom? Or is this meant as an example of America yellow press hysteria? Because it is.

The article would be better cited in "The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism".  The author of the piece appears to be a catastrophe-monger.  He's here promoting his book "Get Prepared Now."  I wonder how sales of that are going.

The real problem in the situation isn't in Tehran, it's in the White House.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 08, 2019, 07:09:04 PM »
the only viable pathway to American abundance and excellence
Classic GreenBAU. Ignore sustainability. Ignore resource use. Ignore the limits. Ignore those who already died. Ignore the rest of the world.

RoW to Mad Scientists (who made the graph):
                     "You expect me to stop emitting CO2 by the end of 2020 ?"

Mad Scientists to RoW:
                     "No, Mr RoW, we expect you to die"

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:02:33 PM »
One person at a time.

Start with yourself. Take a stand with friends and family. Let it go viral.

That's what Greta did. Follow her example.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2019, 03:22:08 PM »
If you opt for a transplant, do you have plans for the old brain? Asking for a friend.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 16, 2019, 08:38:44 PM »
Thankfully, there is a separate thread for albedo discussion!

Rich wrote:
The author points out the loss of albedo due to sea ice only as being 25% of the equivalent of CO2 emissions.
My 'take home' from this is that, within the Arctic, CO2 is going up and albedo is going down, so ice loss will accelerate.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 09, 2019, 02:37:12 PM »

2011 was a sharp low point in the data, which partially explains the higher rate from 2011 onward.
2015-2016 thermal expansion in the run-up to the monster El Nino.
A bit of noise.
Despite these points, as posted earlier I can see a new trendline emerging. However, it is about 5 mm/year and certainly not 8 mm/y at this stage.

My understanding is that the 2011 dip was due to a rare and massive precipitation event which transferred water from the ocean to land. If you can demonstrate a time frame for the redistribution of the water from the 2011 event and above average SLR in the following years, please do or otherwise indicate that you're just guessing.

As far as the pattern of any El Nino, can you please explain how an El Nino causes thermal expansion? My understanding is that an El Nino results in a thermal contraction in the ocean as indicated in the NASA SLR charts of the major El Nino's of 1998 and 2016. Heat is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting in record atmospheric temps in those years as well.

Where is the source of the extra heat coming into the ocean that would cause an expansion?? My understanding is that the heat is already in the ocean and being vented to the atmosphere as part of the El Nino process.

fwiw - I think your 5 mm / year is a reasonable guesstimate of the current net run rate. We can't really guess how often an El Nino is going to come along and reset things.

If your understanding of the year 2011 event is correct, and the event is rare, that is even more reason not to use that as your starting point in calculating trends.  That would be akin to calculating an Arctic sea ice trend starting with the 2012 minimum.  While the trend would be accurate, based on the data, it would not be representative of the system, as a whole.  Would you accept someone's calculation that the minimum sea ice has been increasing at 67k sq. km annually, based on the last seven years of data, even though the calculation is correct?  By the way, since October, 2015, NASA data has shown that sea level has risen 6.4mm, which calculates to 2.1mm / year.  Does this mean that sea level rise is slowing?  All this does is show the folly of using short-term data, in lieu of longer trends.

NASA has stated that the current sea level rise is 3.3mm / year, which is an increase from 3.2 from their trend in 2012, and 3.0 back in 2005.  This does show an increase, but nowhere near 8mm / year (or even 5).

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: April 29, 2019, 11:43:10 PM »
I am all for much more fanatical greens, we need them!

Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: February 23, 2019, 08:06:10 AM »
The Kafka continues:

Apparently, torture disclosure for propaganda is fine.
But such disclosure to defense lawyers for the tortured ?
No way. 

"The lawyers discovered that in the CIA’s year-long cooperation with the film-makers, the agency shared details of Baluchi’s torture at a secret prison, or black site, which they had been told were too secret to be divulged."

"The trial has yet to begin, despite the fact that Baluchi and his four other co-accused in the 9/11 case have been in Guantánamo for 13 years and were first charged in 2008. "

"In the pre-trial hearings, which have been underway for nearly seven years, the defence teams have been repeatedly denied access to witnesses and documentation that might cast light on their clients’ captivity prior to arriving in Guantánamo."

"“Although we have received no orders to do so, we are currently prepared to take in up to an additional 40 detainees with no additional staffing requirements.

“With minimal adjustments to current infrastructure and manpower we could take up to 200 detainees total,” he said. "

I got an idea. If they wanna throw more people in there, how about Bush the lesser, Cheney, Tenet, Rice Addington, Yoo, Bybee ... dump em all in Guantanamo. Did they say they had room for 200 ? Toss in some bankers, too.

Did I say this was a walk in the park ? Not any more, now we got an emergency:


Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 26, 2018, 04:58:46 PM »
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 20, 2018, 05:45:55 PM »
More technical data from the most powerful man in the world:
I'm embarrassed every time he opens his mouth or twitter account. Truly cringe worthy.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 13, 2018, 09:46:09 PM »
In other words, they're basically polar opposites!  ;D

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 15, 2018, 02:07:28 AM »
Electric Motor Club of High Point
8/14/18, 5:53 PM
You know, these things just happen. Fortunately, not as often as solar panel explosions or wind spills. ...

   Nine hurt as gas explosion levels Denver building | Reuters

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 03, 2018, 07:47:43 PM »
Bbr .. they are short of cherry pickers in England atm ... :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 12:04:05 PM »
Folks, please move the Baltic discussion to an appropriate existing thread (or even a new one). Not all weather and climate-related discussions belong here in this thread.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 29, 2018, 10:51:40 PM »
Here's how the CMOS microwave maps look for the past 40 days.

Downloaded from:
There is a definite trend from beige to other colours: dry -> wet

I played around a bit with those SMOS images.  I wrote a script to download the daily SMOS images for June 2010-2018 and to count the number of beige pixels in each image:

Average for the first 28 days of June:

(For what it's worth...)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 09:09:31 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

More on topic: I think the sudden introduction of a very high carbon tax is as close as we can get to a non-incremental solution, as it would quickly would reduce trade, transport, tourism, economic activity in general, as well as encouraging renewables, public transport, walking/cycling, more sustainable urban planning, etc. That doesn't mean it's advisable, or even possible without first changing the political framework...

I agree.  It's not hard for most of us to imagine a world where most people and organizations behave in ways with far less environmental destruction.  Alternatives to CO2 production and resource depletion are mostly straightforward--at increased cost and/or decreased convenience.

The core problem is to alter people's behavior.  There's a lot of research out there on what works or does not work to alter people's behavior.  Among the least effective (sadly) are ordinary educational efforts.  Learning, lectures, reading -- these don't generally alter behavior.  People do respond, however, to incentives, especially with ongoing monitoring/reporting of results.

So, a high global carbon price/tax would provide incentives for the needed change, at all levels of society.  Enacting this kind of measure does require political realignment.  I think education, while inadequate by itself, can alter the political landscape. 

That's why I think our combined contributions here on ASIF/ASIB are of under-appreciated importance.  It's a minuscule effort by itself, but it's *exactly* what the world needs far more of.

The effectiveness of efforts here are powerfully determined by our thoughtfulness and collegiality in discussions.  We have an audience far larger than the number of participants.  What we post here should be for their benefit, not ours.  Please post accordingly.

May I respectfully request you return to and reread my comment in its entirety?  Pay attention to the word "speed", in particular.

Sure, and may I then respectfully request you to ponder the fact that we are all fools, and that the only difference between fools is that some are aware of the fact that they are fools and others aren't?

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 22, 2018, 05:02:52 AM »
Off-Topic alert, before this becomes a monkey zoo.

Since someone mentioned Ayn Rand, I thought I'd post this, perhaps to lighten the mood?

“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs."  :)

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