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Messages - Shared Humanity

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Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 08, 2019, 07:09:04 PM »
the only viable pathway to American abundance and excellence
Classic GreenBAU. Ignore sustainability. Ignore resource use. Ignore the limits. Ignore those who already died. Ignore the rest of the world.

RoW to Mad Scientists (who made the graph):
                     "You expect me to stop emitting CO2 by the end of 2020 ?"

Mad Scientists to RoW:
                     "No, Mr RoW, we expect you to die"

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 04, 2019, 06:02:33 PM »
One person at a time.

Start with yourself. Take a stand with friends and family. Let it go viral.

That's what Greta did. Follow her example.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2019, 03:22:08 PM »
If you opt for a transplant, do you have plans for the old brain? Asking for a friend.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 16, 2019, 08:38:44 PM »
Thankfully, there is a separate thread for albedo discussion!

Rich wrote:
The author points out the loss of albedo due to sea ice only as being 25% of the equivalent of CO2 emissions.
My 'take home' from this is that, within the Arctic, CO2 is going up and albedo is going down, so ice loss will accelerate.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 09, 2019, 02:37:12 PM »

2011 was a sharp low point in the data, which partially explains the higher rate from 2011 onward.
2015-2016 thermal expansion in the run-up to the monster El Nino.
A bit of noise.
Despite these points, as posted earlier I can see a new trendline emerging. However, it is about 5 mm/year and certainly not 8 mm/y at this stage.

My understanding is that the 2011 dip was due to a rare and massive precipitation event which transferred water from the ocean to land. If you can demonstrate a time frame for the redistribution of the water from the 2011 event and above average SLR in the following years, please do or otherwise indicate that you're just guessing.

As far as the pattern of any El Nino, can you please explain how an El Nino causes thermal expansion? My understanding is that an El Nino results in a thermal contraction in the ocean as indicated in the NASA SLR charts of the major El Nino's of 1998 and 2016. Heat is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting in record atmospheric temps in those years as well.

Where is the source of the extra heat coming into the ocean that would cause an expansion?? My understanding is that the heat is already in the ocean and being vented to the atmosphere as part of the El Nino process.

fwiw - I think your 5 mm / year is a reasonable guesstimate of the current net run rate. We can't really guess how often an El Nino is going to come along and reset things.

If your understanding of the year 2011 event is correct, and the event is rare, that is even more reason not to use that as your starting point in calculating trends.  That would be akin to calculating an Arctic sea ice trend starting with the 2012 minimum.  While the trend would be accurate, based on the data, it would not be representative of the system, as a whole.  Would you accept someone's calculation that the minimum sea ice has been increasing at 67k sq. km annually, based on the last seven years of data, even though the calculation is correct?  By the way, since October, 2015, NASA data has shown that sea level has risen 6.4mm, which calculates to 2.1mm / year.  Does this mean that sea level rise is slowing?  All this does is show the folly of using short-term data, in lieu of longer trends.

NASA has stated that the current sea level rise is 3.3mm / year, which is an increase from 3.2 from their trend in 2012, and 3.0 back in 2005.  This does show an increase, but nowhere near 8mm / year (or even 5).

Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: April 29, 2019, 11:43:10 PM »
I am all for much more fanatical greens, we need them!

Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: February 23, 2019, 08:06:10 AM »
The Kafka continues:

Apparently, torture disclosure for propaganda is fine.
But such disclosure to defense lawyers for the tortured ?
No way. 

"The lawyers discovered that in the CIA’s year-long cooperation with the film-makers, the agency shared details of Baluchi’s torture at a secret prison, or black site, which they had been told were too secret to be divulged."

"The trial has yet to begin, despite the fact that Baluchi and his four other co-accused in the 9/11 case have been in Guantánamo for 13 years and were first charged in 2008. "

"In the pre-trial hearings, which have been underway for nearly seven years, the defence teams have been repeatedly denied access to witnesses and documentation that might cast light on their clients’ captivity prior to arriving in Guantánamo."

"“Although we have received no orders to do so, we are currently prepared to take in up to an additional 40 detainees with no additional staffing requirements.

“With minimal adjustments to current infrastructure and manpower we could take up to 200 detainees total,” he said. "

I got an idea. If they wanna throw more people in there, how about Bush the lesser, Cheney, Tenet, Rice Addington, Yoo, Bybee ... dump em all in Guantanamo. Did they say they had room for 200 ? Toss in some bankers, too.

Did I say this was a walk in the park ? Not any more, now we got an emergency:


Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 26, 2018, 04:58:46 PM »
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 20, 2018, 05:45:55 PM »
More technical data from the most powerful man in the world:
I'm embarrassed every time he opens his mouth or twitter account. Truly cringe worthy.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 13, 2018, 09:46:09 PM »
In other words, they're basically polar opposites!  ;D

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 15, 2018, 02:07:28 AM »
Electric Motor Club of High Point
8/14/18, 5:53 PM
You know, these things just happen. Fortunately, not as often as solar panel explosions or wind spills. ...

   Nine hurt as gas explosion levels Denver building | Reuters

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 03, 2018, 07:47:43 PM »
Bbr .. they are short of cherry pickers in England atm ... :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 12:04:05 PM »
Folks, please move the Baltic discussion to an appropriate existing thread (or even a new one). Not all weather and climate-related discussions belong here in this thread.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 29, 2018, 10:51:40 PM »
Here's how the CMOS microwave maps look for the past 40 days.

Downloaded from:
There is a definite trend from beige to other colours: dry -> wet

I played around a bit with those SMOS images.  I wrote a script to download the daily SMOS images for June 2010-2018 and to count the number of beige pixels in each image:

Average for the first 28 days of June:

(For what it's worth...)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 09:09:31 PM »
Possible PAC over the CAB? If the current operational forecast run from ECMWF holds we might at a critical period in the melting season very well see a PAC - Persistent Arctic Cyclone hovering over the CAB durig several days. EC has this cyclone running over the CAB from D5-D10.

If this forecast pans out, we might very well have a new thread named "Melting season 2018 cancelled". And if so, a NSIDC minimum around 5,0 Mn km2 wouldn't be unrealistic.

More on topic: I think the sudden introduction of a very high carbon tax is as close as we can get to a non-incremental solution, as it would quickly would reduce trade, transport, tourism, economic activity in general, as well as encouraging renewables, public transport, walking/cycling, more sustainable urban planning, etc. That doesn't mean it's advisable, or even possible without first changing the political framework...

I agree.  It's not hard for most of us to imagine a world where most people and organizations behave in ways with far less environmental destruction.  Alternatives to CO2 production and resource depletion are mostly straightforward--at increased cost and/or decreased convenience.

The core problem is to alter people's behavior.  There's a lot of research out there on what works or does not work to alter people's behavior.  Among the least effective (sadly) are ordinary educational efforts.  Learning, lectures, reading -- these don't generally alter behavior.  People do respond, however, to incentives, especially with ongoing monitoring/reporting of results.

So, a high global carbon price/tax would provide incentives for the needed change, at all levels of society.  Enacting this kind of measure does require political realignment.  I think education, while inadequate by itself, can alter the political landscape. 

That's why I think our combined contributions here on ASIF/ASIB are of under-appreciated importance.  It's a minuscule effort by itself, but it's *exactly* what the world needs far more of.

The effectiveness of efforts here are powerfully determined by our thoughtfulness and collegiality in discussions.  We have an audience far larger than the number of participants.  What we post here should be for their benefit, not ours.  Please post accordingly.

May I respectfully request you return to and reread my comment in its entirety?  Pay attention to the word "speed", in particular.

Sure, and may I then respectfully request you to ponder the fact that we are all fools, and that the only difference between fools is that some are aware of the fact that they are fools and others aren't?

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 22, 2018, 05:02:52 AM »
Off-Topic alert, before this becomes a monkey zoo.

Since someone mentioned Ayn Rand, I thought I'd post this, perhaps to lighten the mood?

“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs."  :)

An interesting article by Hopkins at counterpunch, echoing both Ellul and Wolin, and some Baudrillard for good measure:

"Generating the simulation of democracy that most Western consumers desperately need in order to be able to pretend to believe that they are not just smoothly-functioning cogs in the machinery of a murderous global empire managed by a class of obscenely wealthy and powerful international elites to whom their lives mean exactly nothing, although extremely expensive and time-consuming, is essential to maintaining their monopoly on power. Having conditioned most Westerners into believing they are “free,” and not just glorified peasants with gadgets, the global capitalist ruling classes have no choice but to keep up this fiction. "

"The purpose of this simulation of democracy is not to generate fake democracy and pass it off as real democracy. Its purpose is to generate the concept of democracy ... "

"Capitalism is ... a machine. Its fundamental function is to eliminate any and all despotic values and replace them with a single value, i.e., exchange value, determined by the market. "

"capitalism has already reached the limits of the freedom it can safely offer us"

"The global capitalist ruling classes need the masses in the West to believe that they live in the United States of America, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and so on, and not in a global marketplace. Because, if it’s all one global marketplace, with one big global labor force (which global corporations can exploit with impunity), and if it’s one big global financial system (where the economies of supposed adversaries like China and the United States, or the European Union and Russia, are almost totally interdependent), then there is no United States of America, no United Kingdom, no France, no Germany … or not as we’re conditioned to perceive them. There is only the global capitalist empire, divided into “national” market territories"

"Like Baudrillard’s Disneyland, “Western democracy” is presented to us as “imperfect” or “unfinished” (in other words, as a replica of “real democracy”) in order to convince us that there exists such a thing as “real democracy,” "

"The replica does not exist to deceive us into believing it is the “real” thing. It exists to convince us that there is a “real” thing. "

"In the cosmology of global capitalism, “democracy” is capitalist heaven. We hear it preached about throughout our lives, we’re surrounded by graven images of it, but we don’t get to see it until we’re dead. Attempting to storm its pearly gates, or to create the Kingdom of Democracy on Earth, is heresy, and is punishable by death. Denying its existence is blasphemy, for which the punishment is excommunication ..."


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