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Messages - Coffee Drinker

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: April 15, 2020, 12:07:11 AM »
One million square km is largely symbolic.  Similar to 2C temperature rise.  There is no real significance to those values, except that they were chosen to represent targets in the fight against climatic change. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 08, 2019, 09:01:28 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?
We are double-f*cked because as the Arctic is collapsing, the cold is now increasingly becoming focused in the grain-growing regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The crop situation this year across much of the Midwest is now dire. Yields will be double-digit %s below normal.

If this repeats next year there will be major food shortages for much of the developing world, IMO, as well as SEVERE winter and spring cold outbreaks in the developed world, particularly in the areas that have consistently trended colder since 2012.

In terms of raw data comparisons (2019 vs the 1981-2010 mean), the Arctic is still glowingly positive, although the - numbers are reduced in scope a bit across the continents. Nevertheless, I think the shift since 2012 highlights a new normal(ish?) pattern we are now spiraling towards, and it is very very BAD.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 06, 2019, 09:59:09 AM »
Arctic Sea Ice Scorecard
Post 3 of 3.

-- 2012 stands alone as the lowest overall with 1st place ordinal rankings for all four measures.  (Technically, 2019 minimum thickness was lower, but only by insignificant margin.) 
The index value for each year is based on its average of ratios to the minimum value observed in 1979-2019 for each measure, not by the average ordinal ranking.

-- 2019 is second to lowest, with one 1st, and three 2nd place rankings.  The estimated 2019 minimums for Extent and Area are substantially larger than for 2012.  The 2019 and 2012 minimums for Volume and Thickness are similar. 

-- 2016 and 2011 are close to each other for 3nd lowest overall ranking, followed by 2010 and 2017 in a virtual tie for 4th place. 

-- Heading into 2012, the prior two years -- 2010 and 2011  -- were ranked #2 and #1 (now 5 and 4), which suggests that the 2012 minimum records may have been the culmination of a three year sequence of predisposing bad melt years vs. being entirely due to conditions in 2012. 
-- Except for 2007, there is a high degree of congruence between the 2D measures (Extent, Area) and the the 3D measures (Volume, Thickness). 

-- Nine of the 10 lowest ranking years have been in the last decade (all except 2007 at #9).

This report is not sanctioned by the National Snow and Ice Date Center, the Polar Science Center, or any other institution.  This report is a personal effort to make the situation of Arctic sea ice decline easier to understand as an indicator for the rapidly progressing and accelerating planetary climate crisis. 



The following image shows Arctic albedo loss across 7 years. 
But it is outdated now because it only includes 3 of the top ten smallest minimum Extent years.  Current albedo reductions relative to a 2000-2004 baseline must be much higher.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 03, 2019, 03:24:02 PM »
This insolation graph gets posted from time to time, but I think it is missing a cruicial component for best understanding. So I added it. At approx 350, the insolation/radiation balance seems to be achieved.

As we enter the final month of melt, we can see that pretty much all the sun energy excess is in the past, and now a good stirring is what the melt doctor should write a prescription for.

(Once the ESS finishes melting out in a week or two, conditions for cyclone creation will be as ideal as possible in the Arctic.)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: July 17, 2019, 12:50:08 PM »
I can't believe there is still ice in the Hudson Bay. How is that even possible?

Temperatures around the bay are pretty much summer like (Churchill 28C today) and the sun is burning down on the ice. Its identical latitude as the Baltic Sea which would never ever have ice in mid July, no matter how cold the winter was.
Location, location, location.
Hudson Bay is in the north and to the east of centre of a big continent.
It gets horribly cold in winter. That part of the world is not called "the Barrens" for nothing.
Summer is horribly short, winter is horribly long.

Ice freezes to an average depth of about 1.6 metres in winter and is late to start melting.

Hudson Bay is one of the seas (there is more than one) that seem to have ignored AGW.

This year it has melted out very close to the 2010's average, a week or more earlier than last year.

In contrast, the Baltic is at the western edge of the European continent, and its climate is semi-maritime, Atlantic westerlies.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 21, 2019, 05:39:09 PM »
The Freya glacier (Greenland) webcam is online again. Snow cover looks very bad compared to previous years.

Really nice webcam images - I like the temp info as well - hits 11.9C on the 16th.  Noticeable that there are lots of blue-sky days as well.

Made an animated gif for the last 30 days:


Even volume? Even volume? You are aware the world does occur in 3D, right? How could you prefer extent more than volume?

I think I explained it just fine in my last post.  Is there some part of it you didn't understand.

There is a place for it, but the top indicator has to be volume...cuz it is, like,  the actual amount. Takes a certain amount of energy to melt a certain volume of ice.

Winter maximum isn't about melting ice, it is about conditions being cold enough for sea water to freeeze.

Speaking of madness...saying "well this is what is going to happen cuz a  few models say so..." is effectively like pontificating about what would happen in a zombie outbreak cuz thats what happened in Fortnite or Call of Duty waves. How good do you believe the models are? Can any models tell me what the weather will be like in a month?

Climate deniers don't like what the models say so run exactly the same argument.  Seems you don't like what the models are saying and so are running exactly the same argument.  This is a science based forum and not Watts Up with That.  The models are certainly imperfect, but whats a better method for predicting the future? 

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 14, 2018, 09:47:59 PM »
Oops, I discovered a melt pond on the sea ice.

It had little effect on albedo, or else I'd have avoided it.

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: May 05, 2018, 11:52:26 PM »
Volcano Cafe for those interested.

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