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Messages - Reallybigbunny

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Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 05, 2020, 12:42:28 AM »
  Has 'Pandemic' become the WHO's equivalent of the UN's interpretation of 'genocide' ?

    i.e. Not to be used unless everyone is dead ?  .. b.c.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 24, 2019, 01:59:24 AM »
Wow. This thread is really depressing. Maybe it should be retitled to people doubling down on climate change. Many of these locations should be evacuated, rather than cool the outdoors and truck in water for toilets.

They do a pretty good job of depressing you over on this thread too.,2728.150.html
I often find AbruptSLR's postings on the multiple meter sea rise thread to be downers, too.

Neven should provide discounts for Prozac for visitors to this blog.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 25, 2019, 11:23:44 PM »
Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various rep[e]ating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently.

“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”


“History,” it has been said, “does not repeat itself. The historians repeat one another.”



Longtime lurker here, I thought it might be relevant to chime in to this discussion. Usually I don’t necessarily have incredibly insightful things to add to a board about ASI melting and the scientific discussion of that. Often, a reader finds well constructed comments, paper citations, objective, rational discussions, data, and well moderated delivery. It is appreciated. I highly doubt ASI loss, climate change, or the sixth mass extinction are areas which are really up for debate in here, for the extreme majority of participants, and perhaps even avid followers such as myself.

It therefore is a welcome break from the b.s. discussion which goes on in society at large. The discussion in society at large absolutely contains all of the emotional baggage of everyone and what the consequences of these events are. These people are in here studying it objectively and rationally.

It is not pretty if you think about it, no. But do we hold the heart surgeon guilty of maintaining a gore porn fetish necessarily because she displays an interest in cardiac and or pulmonary system sciences? Is the detective or investigator held morally responsible for trying to understand the minds of criminals? No of course not, society needs them too.

We’re lucky such a board remains public so that these kinds of folks’ discussion and 5 cents isn’t locked down, charges for, and moderated even more heavily so that content contributors and important discoveries aren’t locked away for their own protection from the general public of people who armchair question the moral motivations for these discussions from a point of view which is utterly irrelevant to the data which is observed.

I once worked in a plant virology laboratory, and we took bets sometimes when we’d attempt a quantitative analysis of some plant virus protein, how much might be in given regions and various plants. Was that morally questionable because we were investigating the nature of plant viruses?

We must be careful and appreciate this resource for what it is and not rush to put up such things which may give pause emotionally to the folks who put in a lot of effort for content. Waiting all hours of the day and night for data to come available from various buoys, international space agencies, ocean administrations, and published works in reputable journals. The data analysis performed on this site is sometimes used by media outlets even when talking about stories (often without due Citations!), hell there is another thread where it looks like /u/unicorn may be identifying previously unmapped, unnamed shoals as things melt out.

We need resources like what these fine ladies and gents here do, day in and out. A truthful objective resource based on data and not opinions is one of the most critical hangout spots I can imagine for Arctic climate geeks or just climate aficionados and professionals the world over. This is a treasure which would benefit if more important people paid attention to it, instead of attempting to shoot the messenger or morale the community out to be a bunch of doomsdayers or collapsers. It isn’t fair to the data or the planet either.

Thanks to you for you good posts over the time, PETM.

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: June 12, 2019, 09:50:47 AM »
Punjab and Haryana High Court Declares:
All animals are ‘legal persons’, all citizens are the guardians of the animal kingdom with a duty to ensure their welfare and protection.

"I'm gonna sue you!"   Source.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 01, 2019, 02:16:59 AM »
Maybe people should build a dam in the strait to slow down the process of losing the oldest ice?

A disaster in waiting

By Sadhguru, Isha Foundation. Published: 19th May 2019.
Ecological problems are no longer a myth. The facts are ranged in such a manner that it is a clear statement. The way we are going right now, it is a disastrous path. But we call it “business as usual.” If we go with “business as usual,” the planet is in for a very serious turndown in the way it functions.
But we are not looking for solutions yet, we are only looking to slow down the disaster. We want to gift the disaster to our children; we don’t want it to happen in our time.
We are trying to handle a massive problem with small incentives here and there. That is not the way it needs to be addressed if you are serious about a solution. 
If we do not take corrective action right now, we will pass on a legacy which we will be ashamed of and which we will be accused of and hated for by our children and the next generation of people.


Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 18, 2019, 09:41:44 PM »
If concentrated wealth was a conscious being, this is what she would sound like:

As people get more and more desperate, they are willing to make bigger and bigger concessions.  I could capitalize on that desperation, just like I have done with neoliberal austerity.  Instead of passing bills that nationalize the energy industry, let’s pass legislation that subsidizes my electric vehicle company. Instead of re-distributing the wealth of the rich, lets increase income taxes and cut services to pay for my new wind farm.  Carbon Tax? No, let’s do cap-and-trade, and I can structure it so I profit greatly off the credits

I can solve climate change (in the western nations) while profiting immensely. I just have to make sure that any popular movements support my actions, and Extinction Rebellion is perfect for that. I’ll take my time with it since nobody is really challenging me. In the meantime, I’ll still profit immensely from my fossil fuel focused sectors, but I’ll transition eventually.  This delay may result in millions of dying in the Global South. But no one really cares about the global south, if they did, we would see the same people in the streets protesting the western backed genocide in Yemen.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 18, 2019, 11:43:46 AM »
It's quite remarkable that Greta Thunberg is being challenged for being ungenuine and fake by both the populist climate(action)-denying right and the anticapitalist ultra-red/green left. She has hit a nerve somewhere which tells us such a figure has been sorely needed.

In times of great change the catalyst for action is often someone unlikely. Whether it's a Tunisian grocer igniting the Arab spring or Serbian extremist starting a World War it's difficult for the rest of us to believe such things can be spontaneous.

Status quo can either try and destroy a counter movement or it can try and assimilate it. Assimilating is not simply bad because it also means the counter movement has a chance to get their voice heard. Uncompromising ideological purity gets nothing done.

I haven't heard about an anticapitalist system-changing initiative that has even the remotest chance of success. There is almost zero support for such things withing the general public, not to mention the undemocratic tyrants of the developing world. Working within the market-based system by pricing carbon, promoting green new deals etc and implementing strict emission controls might just be able to make emissions peak and thus buy us enough time to find ways to go fully zero-carbon. Unfortunately we are 20-30 years late to do this but maybe, just maybe, there is now enough momentum to create a grassroot pressure to push the climate denying lobbyists out of power.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 17, 2019, 05:57:25 PM »
Everything linear might be too optimistic...

The rest / Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: May 14, 2019, 01:39:48 AM »
For the last year and a half I've been fascinated by traditional distinctions between natural and unnatural. My interest emerged out of a conflict with government over the management of a species-at-risk. The argument that we should "allow nature to take its course," was made repeatedly in defence of government inaction.

Recently I was watching a video called "Early Anthropogenic Transformations of Earth's Climate," in the thread "Early Anthropocene." In it, the lecturer, Ruddiman, makes the comment, "What can you think of as ‘not natural?’ Well, humans."

Of course the antropogenic vs. natural distinction is one that is commonly used, and generally does not lead to any confusion. However, I argue that the distinction is actually untenable, and leads to the perpetuation of a mythology that undermines science and clear thought.

There is much that can be written on this topic, and there are some philosophers who have (for example Steven Vogel). For the sake of this thread I will try to be brief.

The main problem with the above distinction is how to reconcile it with evolutionary biology, which describes human beings as just one of many species that have evolved according to the same sorts of processes as all other species. To separate our consciousness and our products from the rest of nature seems to require a kind of intrusion, whether supernatural, or unnatural, that gave rise to our consciousness. This should sound familiar, since it is the kind of story we find in many mythologies and religions.

Perhaps the easiest way to explain this is to ask, according to the definition of "unnatural" as anything caused or made by humans, are beaver dams natural? The answer is obviously, yes. Is a  pile of rocks made by a human to mark the direction they're traveling natural or unnatural? According to the definition, it is quite clearly unnatural. Now, it is obvious that beaver dams have much more impact on their ecosystems and the environment than a pile of rocks made by a human to navigate. The value of putting these into unique ontological categories is dubious. If beavers have evolved to build dams, and modify the environment in doing so, why should we think of it as unnatural that human beings build things that modify the environment?

Of course, there is a difference between a pile of rocks and a project like the three gorges dam. But the standard definition does not distinguish between the two. It simply places our artifacts in a unique category distinct from the rest of the world.

The consequence, I would argue, is that we smuggle in a kind of dualistic thinking that sees human beings and our consciousness as something alien to the universe. As a result, it alienates us from our environment, as we fail to recognize how we are another creature on the planet shaping our environment that arose out of this planet, not something that arrived here and started mucking around, that doesn't belong here, that can only either interfere or not interfere.

As far as this relates to climate change, I think this kind of hidden moralism makes the environmental movement less attractive. It ends up being romantic, always harkening back to a "nature" or "natural" that in fact, by definition, excludes us, and so we could never return to anyway. It can also lead to a primitivism, and the kind of mistrust of the intellect that is sometimes found in Fascism. It seems strange to wonder, what would have happened if we weren't here, since, though we may be an accident in the sense that all evolution is accidental, we are an accident of this earth, the natural history of this earth. Our choices are part of that history. Our choices, one way or the other, are natural. All of our politics, our follies, our plastic, all of it, part of the natural history of this planet. It's time we reconcile ourselves to that, accept that this is our home, and that we had better adjust our behaviour if we want to keep it.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 06, 2019, 12:40:01 AM »
From NASA ICE Facebook:

Today IceBridge flew its first science flight of the year from Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, titled ICESat-2 Central. This science flight begins only a short distance from town, and we were immediately stunned by the number and size of melt ponds on the ice-sheet surface. April temperatures in Greenland have been excessively high, leading to very early onset into the melt season. The melt ponds stole the show on an otherwise near featureless flight. As anticipated, the plane encountered frequent bouts of turbulence closer to the ice-sheet edge, which gradually reduced in duration as we migrated inland. This baseline mission surveys nine ICESat-2 tracks and flies over the sites of several shallow ice cores that were collected by the GreenTrACS project. Here's: 1. A blue melt pond with waves indicating the strength of today's wind. (NASA/Jefferson Beck) 2. A highly crevassed section of Russell Glacier with regions of exposed bare ice with bands of debris, snow, and newly formed melt ponds (NASA/Michael Studinger) 3. A look back towards the fjord where ice bends and breaks as it flows around a bedrock high. (NASA/Jefferson Beck) 4. Emerald green ponds weave around ice and debris near the terminus of Russell Glacier, which is experiencing anomalously early melt onset. (NASA/Brooke Medley)

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 25, 2019, 08:34:17 PM »
Define support?  I've been there, repeating the information that you can't keep on pushing CO2 into the atmosphere, since the early 1990's as my interest was triggered in the mid 1980's.  I have taken the abuse, the laughter, the isolation and the derision for decades.  Yet I have never wavered in making sure that I won't be in a room where disinformation is being disseminated without having a say with the truth.

I will still be doing this a decade from today.  But, at least, there will be more people who listen.

ER?  A few demonstrations and a government minister, from a failing and desperate government, agrees to have a few "talks".  Macron agreed to "talk" to the Giles Jeaune's too.  Didn't get very far did it?

With all due respect to  you as someone with undoubtedly greater experience in these matters than myself, all this really says is that you've been campaigning a long time and X/ER haven't. That doesn't seem like a good reason to dismiss what they're doing. This has all only just happened; if the talks go nowhere you can bet that XR won't be going away.

You see that's the problem with being older.  We've already seen this kind of demonstrations.  Over and over and over again.

This conversation reminds me of somebody I met once while I was handing out XR leaflets. He's a seasoned environmental campaigner, somebody who I'd heard of before and who is quite keenly involved in local environmental issues. Broadly speaking the conversation was along the lines of "it won't work because nothing works, I've seen all this before, nothing works and by the way don't trust the police". Now to be fair he did have more specific criticisms of XR and that's totally fair enough, but I really can't get on board with the "nothing has worked, therefore nothing will ever work" thing. Not least because things are different now; we have really short timescales to work with that fall within the lives of people already alive now.

Now, I do accept that doing things *differently* to what has failed in the past might be a good idea. In fact I think this is what XR are doing; they've raised it to a new level. Do you know how much news coverage a march I went on called "Going Backwards On Climate Change" got? Pretty much none really. But look at XR - they've been all over the media (in the UK) in a way that no other climate campaign has ever managed. They've been sat in major TV studios telling the public that civilization could well collapse, that we need deep green adaptation, that we need radical and far reaching change. Rupert Read has been particularly notable in that regard, getting those points across very well in the face of some rather ignorant interviewers.

Just one little problem.  Nobody is going to produce 30 million EV's next week, or next year or next decade (well, maybe that).  As for 26 million solar roof's and powerwalls?  Right, not going to happen is it.

So that's solar.  Wind?  We're already doing that.  Just like Germany our power cost is climbing and everyone is up in arms.  But it's worth the cost.  Well if we can actually get rid of all those CCGT power stations that ensure you have power on a still winters night.

And what about tidal?  Well you see most of those people who support ER don't want a Severn barrier.  Why?  Well, it might, just might, disturb some local species which live there.  The fact that those local species are going to face their own extinction in the next half century, through CO2 based AGW doesn't seem to have filtered through.

Right let me address this a bit in terms of XR's plan. Clearly you've already addressed some issues in overview by stating that nothing will work because isn't it all so difficult - but in fact XR does not seek to set out specifics.

One of the key demands of XR is for a citizens assembly to be formed to decide how to proceed nationally to deal with climate change as an emergency situation. There is precedent for such assemblies, not least in Ireland very recently - and as a result of the blockades last week this concept has had airtime on national TV.

The idea would be for citizens to be randomly selected to serve in the assembly, be fully briefed with all the facts and asked to choose the way forward. XR is not prescribing what needs to happen. It is a rather anti-capitalist movement but frankly the crisis probably does need anti-capitalist measures so I can see why that would be; nevertheless they do not seek to make this a political battle or to claim to be the people with all the answers. They want everybody to be involved and work out what to do; but getting to that point means massively raising awareness and forcing the government to sit up. Hence, blockades and glue.

Before the first actions in London some months ago, Roger Hallam (one of the co-founders) was interviewed saying that there would probably need to be 1,000 or so arrests in order to bring the Government to the table. That happened over the past week (might even be an unprecedented number of arrests in one police operation?) and now the Government has agreed to talks. One step at a time - yes the talks might not go anywhere, but if so we can already see that there is a great deal of support for XR and a large number of people willing to take part in further actions at large scale.

So lets see. For myself, I think this is something which could snowball in a big way (it already has, really).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: April 03, 2019, 01:19:03 AM »
BAM! Two years have gone by without an update.

I finally have the processsing power and coding skills to take the AWP model to where I intended it to be. Instead of only calculating the anomaly of potentially absorbed solar radiation. I now calculate the raw accumulated values, the anomaly and a percentage of the current year to the maximum possible (complete Ice-free conditions). From the 1980s to 2010s this percentage has gone up from roughly 52% to 62%. Generally from August onwards the Arctic is 75% icefree and from September onwards the Arctic is 90% icefree.

Everything is now much better presented with interactive graphs and sliders to compare individual years. The regional data is already calculated, but needs even more work for proper presentation. Near-real time data for 2019 is in the works too.

Fancy new webpage:

Still too short documentation of AWP model:

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 30, 2019, 04:01:46 PM »
I first discovered the writings of Meteorologist/geoscientist Nick Humphrey with his brutally honest essay The Conversation No One Knows How To Have and since then have followed his posts and comments. He has been featured or quoted in a number of publications such as Mother Jones, New York Times, Washington Post, and Science Alert. Few scientists will publicly tell you how dire things are, but Nick Humphrey is not one to shy away from the truth. What follows is a Q&A interview I held with him on a variety of questions concerning humanity’s future.

Excerpt from interview...

ML: What is the most disturbing aspect of anthropogenic global warming that you are seeing today and what are its implications for the future?

NH: To me, the most disturbing aspect is the destruction of ice on the planet. It is commonly discussed among climate scientists that the planet has a high “inertia”. This means in natural climate change, there is typically a significant lag between what is happening in the atmosphere (rise in greenhouse emissions) and climate response (warming of the planet), forcing a more gradual temperature rise.

There are two very important components of Earth’s inertia.
1) Water (which can gain/lose a huge amount of heat with a gradual temperature change) and 2) Ice.
Ice, in my view, is the biggest climate regulator because it can do two things:
1) In the process of melting and freezing, heat is latent or “hidden”. Meaning it does not contribute to temperature, but to melting (heat gain) or freezing (heat loss) of ice.
2) Ice is white, so as a result, it is a high reflector of visible light, preventing absorption of heat at the surface. So it has a double impact. As the planet loses ice because of warming temperatures, there is less total ice to melt and more heat goes into warming the oceans, land and atmosphere. It takes nearly 80 times more heat to melt ice than to warm the same amount of liquid water by 1 degree C/1.8 degrees F. The less ice there is, the lower the planetary albedo, resulting in more heat entering the climate system, creating a feedback loop to destroy ice faster and accelerating planetary heating. The loss of sea ice in the Arctic is a planetary catastrophe.

The entire interview is here:

Arctic sea ice / Re: Svalbard
« on: March 22, 2019, 07:38:50 PM »
Atlantification of the marine ecosystem in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard

Climate warming is rapidly altering the physical marine environment in fjords on the west coast of Svalbard towards a more temperate state. Reductions in sea ice cover and increased ocean temperatures are evident, resulting in changes of ice-associated and pelagic ecosystems.

The changes we observe in Svalbard are happening fast: the fauna in the west coast fjords is now less characteristic of the High Arctic, but more and more resembles the ecosystems along the Norwegian coast, with food webs partly composed of Atlantic species.

An upcoming book will be out in April 2019, probably quite expensive.  132,23 EUR
“The Ecosystem of Kongsfjorden, Svalbard” (eds. Hop H, Wiencke C), Advances in Polar Ecology, Springer Verlag, publication date 27 April 2019.          "This book will form a baseline for future work. " 

While not coming to conclusions - a nice little article.  And a possible decent web site to visit now and then to see what is up around the Bering.  Appears to be good translations into several languages. 

I do not feel I am necroposting, Svalbard is not going to move.  I suppose I could have posted to "Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere".     

Donald Trump is Using Stalinist Tactics to Discredit Climate Science

The Trump administration has already purged information about climate change from government websites, gagged federal experts and attempted to end funding for climate change programmes.

Now a group of hardcore climate change deniers and contrarians linked to the administration is organising a petition in support of a new panel being set up by the National Security Council to promote an alternative official explanation for climate change.

The petition is being circulated for signature by Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a lobby group for “free market” fanatics which has become infamous for championing climate change denial. It does not disclose its sources of funding, but is known to have received money from ExxonMobil and conservative billionaires such as the Koch brothers.

Mr Ebell, who has no expertise whatsoever in climate science – or any kind of science for that matter – was a member of Donald Trump’s presidential transition team and diverted the focus of the Environmental Protection Agency towards weakening and removing policies that limit pollution by companies, including President Obama’s Clean Power Plan.

The creation of the new panel of climate change deniers, and the recruitment of supporters to provide it with a veneer of legitimacy, echoes the campaign by Joseph Stalin’s regime to discredit the work of geneticists who disagreed with the disastrous pseudo-scientific theories of Trofim Lysenko.

Lysenko wrongly believed that acquired traits could be passed on by parents to their offspring. Stalin embraced lysenkoism as the basis for Soviet agricultural policy, while also denouncing and persecuting Lysenko’s scientific critics.

The Trump administration’s “climate lysenkoism” is being led by William Happer, a retired professor from Princeton University who was hired by the National Security Council in September 2018 as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for emerging technologies.

Media reports suggest that Professor Happer and his fellow propagandists will target the Fourth National Climate Assessment, which was prepared by leading researchers in the United States, and concluded last November: “The impacts of climate change are already being felt in communities across the country.”...

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 19, 2019, 08:47:42 PM »
We rightly condemn the senseless waste of life that 'haters' cause in their attacks and radicalisation of others and all that brings yet when thousands blink out because of a natural disaster we do not join together and pledge our solidarity against the folk who 'augmented' that disaster making it so deadly?

Maybe " you can't say AGW caused it!" is no defence as , in a warming world, every weather event has 'some' AGW in it. So how many in Africa died because of the AGW 'portion' of that Cyclone???

10%, 5%?

Both would return numbers bigger than the horror in Christchurch cost us yet the paid deniers that allowed us here,with little mitigation,just go about their days as if they have not a care in the world but us 'catastrophists'

EPA Proposes Antibiotic Spraying of Citrus Crops

... The EPA proposal would allow streptomycin to be sprayed on all citrus trees in the United States up to three times a year. Based on current commercial citrus acreage, the amount allowed to be sprayed would total more than 942,000 lb, according to Consumer Reports. The group noted that other federal agencies have taken steps to reduce overuse of antibiotics in agriculture and human medicine

The move would lead to "a 26-fold increase in the use of streptomycin in plant agriculture and could trigger antibiotic resistance that would reduce the drug's effectiveness in treating diseases in people," the consumer group warned in a news release.

The EPA’s proposal comes at a time when medical experts have warned that growing antibiotic resistance poses one of the most serious threats to public health 

What next? Bring back DDT

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 18, 2019, 01:30:54 PM »
The 12 Signs That Show We're in The Middle of a 6th Mass Extinction

Nothing new but a convenient list.

Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:38:08 AM »
Receding Chilean glacier a sign of accelerating climate change

"In the space of just two weeks, two large icebergs broke off the Grey Glacier in Chilean Patagonia—a sign of accelerating climate change, experts say.

The Grey Glacier is one of the main sights in the Torres del Paine national park popular with tourists and hikers.
A giant iceberg the size of six football pitches—8.8 hectares (22 acres)—broke away from the glacier on February 20 and another six hectare piece detached on March 7.
It marks the first time two icebergs of such great size have broken off in such quick succession.
The 270 square kilometer (104 square mile) glacier receded by 500 meters (550 yards), more than half the amount lost over the previous decade.
A smaller iceberg detached in 2017 but Ricardo Jana, a scientist at the Chilean Antarctic Institute, said "the loss of mass over the previous years was definitely smaller than this year."
Scientists following the glacier's evolution say it lost around two kilometers in the last 30 years.
A United Nations study in 2018 found that 95 percent of Chile's 24,100 glaciers had receded.
Scientists say that unusually warm summer temperatures—up to 31 degrees Celsius in Patagonia—and high rainfall weakened the glacier's walls.
"The receding of the glaciers coincides with the increased temperatures that we've noticed in the region," said Inti Gonzalez, a glaciologist at the Cequa Foundation that studies geology in Patagonia and the Antarctic.
Higher rainfall also accelerates the glacier melt while raising the level of the eponymous lake where the glacier is found.

Read more at:

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 15, 2019, 08:22:01 PM »
Conservationists say they have found a dead vaquita porpoise, a critically endangered marine animal of which only about 10 remain in the world, in a fish net off the coast of Mexico.

A report published by the IUCN on March 6 states that only about 10 vaquitas remained alive in 2018, as per an acoustic monitoring program conducted in the Gulf, though there is a 95% chance they number between 6 and 22.

“Without immediate, effective action on the part of the Government, the vaquita is doomed to extinction,” the report adds.

Journey to Antarctica: What Scientists Think of Trump’s Latest Climate Tweet

“You like carbon dioxide so much?” one researcher mused. “Try putting a plastic bag over your head and see how that works out.”

Link >>

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: March 10, 2019, 06:47:44 PM »
As many of you know the DMI moved all their Greenland data products to the Polar Portal website (

I emailed them about the missing accumulated SMB map and their reply was that it isn't as popular as the anomaly map and therefore unlikely to make it over to PolarPortal. I find it dissapointing, but to brighten up my day I found their monthly raw data is freely available for research purposes. (currently Jan 1980 to Aug 2017)

So I think I produce the accumulated SMB maps myself all the way back to 1980 and create some long term SMB graphs (whole year Sep-Aug) and only the melt season (Jun-Aug). Is there anything you would like to see that's possible to create with monthly surface mass balance data?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: March 09, 2019, 01:24:31 PM »
Also, 2012 was an extreme melt year (in Greenland and elsewhere, not matched since): not a good year to end trend calculations with (when viewed 7 years later).
Depends on what the purpose of the study is?
Purpose :" the mechanisms that trigger melt are still insufficiently understood"
Results:   "we show that melt is initiated by a cyclone-driven, southerly flow of warm, moist air, which gives rise to large-scale precipitation. " and..
"year-round precipitation events are participating in the ice sheet’s decline."
"Based on linear regression, we find that over these 25 (1988-2012)years, the number of winter events has risen from circa 2 to circa 12 in a single winter."

They also talk about how in Summer southerly cyclones (mostly from the SE) with associated precipitation often precede long periods of high pressure and sunny days.
They also look at how much of the rain and associated snow melt refreezes and how much runs off.

Perhaps that questions the assumptions used by the models used by NSIDC (Greenland) and DMI for the SMB calculations, especially given how much of precipitation in Greenland is concentrated in the warmer Southern and Eastern coastal fringes. (see image attached).

Abstract. Surface melting is a major driver of Greenland’s
mass loss. Yet, the mechanisms that trigger melt are still
insufficiently understood because seasonally based studies
blend processes initiating melt with positive feedbacks. Here,
we focus on the triggers of melt by examining the synoptic
atmospheric conditions associated with 313 rapid melt increases,
detected in a satellite-derived melt extent product,
equally distributed throughout the year over the period 1979–
2012. By combining reanalysis and weather station data, we
show that melt is initiated by a cyclone-driven, southerly flow
of warm, moist air, which gives rise to large-scale precipitation.

A decomposition of the synoptic atmospheric variability
over Greenland suggests that the identified, melt-triggering
weather pattern accounts for  40% of the net precipitation,
but increases in the frequency, duration and areal extent of
the initiated melting have shifted the line between mass gain
and mass loss as more melt and rainwater run off or accumulate
in the snowpack. Using a regional climate model, we
estimate that the initiated melting more than doubled over
the investigated period, amounting to  28% of the overall
surface melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass
gain, year-round precipitation events are participating in the
ice sheet’s decline.

ps: GRACE Follow-On - where are you? No info from NASA or Germany since late 2018. Is it in trouble as data was promised by now.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 05, 2019, 05:14:34 PM »
Due to Humans, Extinction Risk for 1,700 Animal Species to Increase by 2070

As humans continue to expand our use of land across the planet, we leave other species little ground to stand on. By 2070, increased human land-use is expected to put 1,700 species of amphibians, birds, and mammals at greater extinction risk by shrinking their natural habitats, according to a study by Yale ecologists published in Nature Climate Change.

"Our findings link these plausible futures with their implications for biodiversity," said Walter Jetz, co-author and professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and of forestry and environmental studies at Yale. "Our analyses allow us to track how political and economic decisions—through their associated changes to the global land cover—are expected to cause habitat range declines in species worldwide."

The study shows that under a middle-of-the-road scenario of moderate changes in human land-use about 1,700 species will likely experience marked increases in their extinction risk over the next 50 years: They will lose roughly 30-50% of their present habitat ranges by 2070. These species of concern include 886 species of amphibians, 436 species of birds, and 376 species of mammals—all of which are predicted to have a high increase in their risk of extinction.

These projections and all other analyzed species can be examined at the Map of Life website.

"Losses in species populations can irreversibly hamper the functioning of ecosystems and human quality of life," ... "While biodiversity erosion in far-away parts of the planet may not seem to affect us directly, its consequences for human livelihood can reverberate globally. It is also often the far-away demand that drives these losses—think tropical hardwoods, palm oil, or soybeans—thus making us all co-responsible."

Global habitat loss and extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates under land-use-change scenarios, Nature Climate Change (2019)


Adders are Facing Near Extinction in Britain

The adder could all but disappear from the UK countryside by 2032, according to new research conducted with the help of citizen scientists.

The findings, published in the Herpetological Journal, are the culmination of 11 years of nationwide monitoring and showed that 90 percent of adder populations surveyed were declining. Experts warn that, if these trends continue, within just 10-20 years adders could be restricted to just a handful of sites in the UK

This is not just bad for adders. Adders are an indicator species. If adders are in serious decline, this suggests many other species who depend on the same habitats are likely to be suffering too. So why are so many adder populations in decline and what can we do about it? The study also identified key threats currently affecting the adder sites. Top of the list was public pressure through disturbance.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 04, 2019, 11:45:37 AM »
Coal Ash Contaminates Groundwater at 91% of U.S. Coal Plants, Tests Show

At a power plant in Memphis, Tennessee, coal ash waste that built up over decades has been leaching arsenic and other toxic substances into the groundwater.

The contamination, ranked as a top problem in a new national assessment of water testing at coal ash sites, is in a shallow aquifer for now. But below that lies a second aquifer that provides drinking water to more than 650,000 people, and there are concerns that the contamination could make its way into the deeper water supply the city relies on.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 01, 2019, 05:24:21 PM »
Catastrophic Outlook for African Savannahs Due to Rise in CO2 Levels

A ground-breaking research study looking at modern and ancient landscapes has discovered African plants could be facing mass extinction faster than once thought.

Scientists from the Lyell Centre, Heriot-Watt University, looked at chemical fossils, with special emphasis on plant vegetable oils preserved in ancient sediments.

The fossils revealed almost 8,000 sub-tropical African plant species from an estimated total of about 23,000 species could become extinct within the next few decades.

The worrying figure amounts to 33 per cent of Africa's contemporary plant diversity, affecting basic ecosystems worldwide.

Academics also claim, the magnitude of biodiversity loss projected for southeast Africa over the next 100 years will be more significant than anything seen in the last 15,000 years or more.
... "Our study informs us of a possible catastrophic outlook for plants and diversity in this African region and the magnitude of biodiversity loss will be especially pronounced for sub-tropical regions, such as savannahs."

The trend was discovered after researchers looked into the widespread rapid decrease of (sub) tropical biodiversity, including plants during the most recent large-scale global warming event (deglaciation amid 10,000 to 18,000 years ago) that followed the Last Glacial Maximum.

They discovered the decline was due to rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 levels which affected the ability of plants with specialised traits, to complete with more cosmopolitan and faster growing plants like weedy grasses.

Open Access: Clayton R. Magill et al. Isotopic variance among plant lipid homologues correlates with biodiversity patterns of their source communities, PLOS ONE (2019).


Population Increases and Climate Change Point to Future US water Shortages

Climate change plus population growth are setting the stage for water shortages in parts of the U.S. long before the end of the century, according to a new study in the AGU journal Earth's Future.

The new study finds climate change and population growth are likely to present serious challenges in some regions of the U.S., notably the central and southern Great Plains, the Southwest and central Rocky Mountain States, and California, and also some areas in the South and the Midwest.

Even efforts to use water more efficiently in municipal and industrial sectors won't be enough to stave off shortages, say the authors of the new study. The results suggest that reductions in agricultural water use will probably play the biggest role in limiting future water shortages.

Simulations show that major additions to storage capacity are ineffectual in the most vulnerable basins due to a lack of water to fill the reservoirs.

Past and projected annual water yield and demand by basin. (a) Water yield in past period (Bm3). (b) Percent change in water yield from past period to mid future period, mean of 14 futures. (c) Water demand in the past period (Mm3). (d) Percent change in water demand from past period to mid future period, mean of 14 futures. Time periods: past (1985–2010) and midfuture (2046–2070).

Open Access: Thomas C. Brown et al, Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change, Earth's Future (2019).


Forests, Carbon Sinks, Cannot Make Up for Delays in Decarbonizing the Economy

"Natural climate solutions are not enough" Science (2019).

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 01, 2019, 01:19:48 PM »
The Shells of Wild Sea Butterflies Are Already Dissolving

This long-predicted outcome of ocean acidification experiments has started showing up in the wild.

For more than a decade, laboratory studies and models have warned of the vulnerability of pteropods—tiny sea snails also known as sea butterflies—to ocean acidification. Now those predictions have escaped the lab. From the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea to the Beaufort Sea, scientists are finding pteropods with dissolved shells. Nina Bednarsek, a biogeochemist with the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, recently presented some of these findings at the Alaska Marine Science Symposium.


The pteropod Bednarsek studies, Limacina helicina, is more than just the proverbial canary in the coal mine. One of only two species of pteropod to live in high-latitude waters, this particular species is abundant and critical to Arctic food webs, often dominating zooplankton communities and feeding everything from pink salmon to whales.

Pteropods can patch their damaged shells, but at a cost, Bednarsek explains. “The pteropods are a bit more physiologically compromised—not really feeling very well.” More acidic water triggers stress responses in the pteropods, as well as sucking energy to rebuild their shells. Stressed out pteropods accumulate free radicals, which decompose their lipids and fatty acids. And since these lipids and fatty acids are essential nutrients for juvenile fishes, corroded pteropods make a poor meal, compromising the health of other animals in the food chain.


Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 19, 2019, 08:53:50 AM »
Bergman at guardian on florida real estate: money, money, money

"Miami streets will flood every year by 2070."

" luxury condominiums going up in flood-prone South Beach, and property values rising in the vulnerable Keys, post-Hurricane Irma ... a culture of “systemic, fraudulent nondisclosure” "

"low-income neighborhoods like Little Haiti are rising in value and under pressure from developers because of their higher ground ... raising the rents, forcing renters onto month-to-month leases ... "

“I’m worried we’re one bad storm away from a rush for the exits,”

 “great fishing”

" a significant percentage of at-risk properties are owned by people of color."


Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 18, 2019, 03:50:12 AM »
The IPCC is not perfect, but they are not being dismissive of anything and to act like you know something they don't is downright laughable.

 You can laugh if you want. It wouldn't be the first time in the history of science that the consensus is wrong.

 I want to make clear that I have great respect for everyone who have dedicated their lives to understand the climate and how humans fit in it. They are true experts and their strict knowledge is a extremely valuable asset of mankind.  Their work is great and if we can save ourselves from climate change it will be in large part for the work people like the ones at the IPCC have done warning us about climate change. Even then, they are wrong about the risks of climate change.

 I don't think the IPCC is wrong because they are lying or because their data is faulty. They are wrong because they are not framing the problem correctly. For example humanity. The IPCC takes human population for granted, yet the data says we are a fluke. What we have seems permanent but it is unique and new. The kind of climate change we have unleashed is also new and unique, because as far as I know, this much CO2 has never been emitted this fast.

 Another example, methane. I don't think methane will be our killer. The complete loss of ASI during summer will be.

 If the reaction to the loss of ASI is more warming then GHG's will be released from all available sources at rates proportional to the additional warming. That's on top of human induced warming. However, at that point warming will be the least of our problems. Weather chaos caused by the destabilization of the oceanic and atmospheric currents will end humanity as we know it, specially with leadership with blinders on. Plenty of people will survive this. My bet is more than the average human population over the last ten thousand years, probably even a billion in places with good governance and climate luck.

 If the reaction to the loss of ASI is cooling (a very possible event) then I just hope there is enough time to evacuate the north hemisphere. It will be buried by snow for the rest of our existence. Methane will be safe and sound for 130k years during the next glacial period (give or take a few millennia) until the next interglacial. It will eventually become a fossil fuel. Hopefully the next species that learns how to use it learns about our mistakes before it is too late for them.

 Or maybe the reaction is both. Very hot during summer in the North Hemisphere, periodically unlivable. Very snowy after equinox and after the summer heat is dissipated into space, the ocean
 the permafrost and snow.

The 2015-2018 global heat spike gave us just a preview of what happens as the Arctic melts. The hurricanes, the fires, the floods, the droughts, the heat waves were not coincidence.

There is no way to overstate the risks. What risk we face? We risk losing everything. The likelihood of such event? Given the known unknowns, way too high. Given the historical human population way too high. Given the association of warming with mass extinction events, way too high. Given the association of recent warming and natural disasters, way too high. Given the resistance to do something about climate change, way too high.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 24, 2018, 07:53:47 AM »
Well said SH (the whole post). Meat is the low hanging fruit indeed.
There is one other low hanging fruit as humanity prepares (not) for the 2050 catastrophe: less and late reproduction. If all women globally would each have a maximum of only one baby, and no earlier than at the age of say 27, so many resources will be saved that can be diverted to fixing the predicament we are in and will be in by 2050. Starvation is a terrible fate I do not wish on anyone, but not being born is not a tragedy, and having only one kid is not a tragedy.
I am not optimistic of course, none of this would get done, but from a systemic point of view this is the obvious humane solutions that can make so many other partial solutions much more viable, as it buys them time and reduces their overall requirements..

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 10, 2018, 07:31:38 AM »
That extinction symbol I posted about a while ago has become a lot more visible recently thanks to the Extinction Rebellion (UK site here) which has grown rapidly over the past few weeks.

Yesterday 5 major bridges in central London were all blocked simultaneously with around 100 arrests (see my photos), and of course the wonderful Greta Thunberg in Stockholm:

Of course, those people still believe something can be done to stop it, but they are waking up to what's coming at them like a freight train.

That is unfortunate.  Better they had remained oblivious until it was over, since there is nothing that can be done.  Now they have to face the end awake with all the grief they have not had the opportunity to process.

These people are demanding that those who would have remained blissfully ignorant wake up, when all it will do is subject them to grief and sorrow before the end.  These people need to get a clue that it's over and leave the blissfully ignorant alone, instead of ruining what's left of their lives.

All they are accomplishing by demanding others wake up, is accelerating the end of civilization.

Wouldn't you rather have food in the stores as long as possible? Water coming out of your tap as long as possible?

They are just accelerating the time when that will end.

Do you have a solution?  No you don't.  None of you do.  You are all just hoping that, if you can wake everybody up, somehow, someway, ... that will fix it.

Well it won't.  It will just bring an end to the deliveries of all the necessities of life to your communities that much quicker.  And how many of you are prepared for that?


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 06, 2018, 11:18:49 PM »
Squeezed in a blog post on this before the PIOMAS numbers get updated: Freezing season has started, or has it?

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 15, 2018, 11:02:33 AM »
This is the sort of thing that makes me want to start sticking extinction symbols up everywhere. Tragic, all around us and yet somehow invisible.

Humanity has lost touch with nature, and blindly steps on it without a thought. I'm hopeful that collectively this can be changed; but after how many more creatures are lost?

From the page:
The symbol above represents extinction. The circle signifies the planet, while the hourglass inside serves as a warning that time is rapidly running out for many species. The world is currently undergoing a mass extinction event, and this symbol is intended to help raise awareness of the urgent need for change in order to address this crisis. Estimates are that somewhere between 30,000 and 140,000  species are becoming extinct every year in what scientists have named the Holocene, or Sixth Mass Extinction. This ongoing process of destruction is being caused by the impact of human activity. Within the next few decades approximately 50% of all species that now exist will have become extinct. Such a catastrophic loss of biodiversity is highly likely to cause widespread ecosystem collapse and consequently render the planet uninhabitable for humans.

In order to spread the message as widely as possible, please create this symbol in any location you feel able to. Thank you.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2018, 10:55:39 PM »
Time to break out 2018's Arctic minimum running back chart (named after the way it will wiggle through a crowd of dots in a few weeks' time).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 03, 2018, 09:51:49 PM »
Even after a summer BOE, ice will still form in the Arctic during the dark, polar winter for many decades
So, this being merely 2018, it surely follows that Svalbard-FJL-SZ corridor froze over this winter?

Except it never came close. And this year was only a continuation of a long-term regional trend, not a variational swing attributable to unusual weather, cycle, oscillation, phase or teleconnection event.

The interface to the Pacific Ocean and the once-icy Bering Sea is similar: the Chukchi had open water right up to January 20th (in the sense of persistent non lift-off UH AMSR2 0-10% sea ice concentration). It was fully frozen over only on 13 days over the entire winter (measured as 95% of Chukchi pixels at 80-100% concentration).

So the Chukchi is now partly open 242/365 or 93% of the year and again this is just 2018, not many decades out in a warmer future. The same can be said for basin margins affected by earlier melting major rivers.

Once again, a more nuanced assessment (area, time series) works better than binary binning (will/won't freeze over in winter). That is, the mean sea ice concentration over the winter has already departed significantly from freeze-over in many peripheral areas.

Despite continuing -- and possibly accelerating -- Arctic Amplification that predominantly affects fall and winter, no doubt large central areas will indeed continue to freeze over for some time, but both extent and duration of coverage can be expected to diminish over time from the periphery inward, unless new Hail Mary feedbacks emerge. The Arctic Ocean with a thin but extensive ice cover over fall and winter in conjunction with a severely diminished summer coverage is actually the worst case scenario for global warming.

Often termed the planet's refrigerator because the Antarctic can't do the job, the Arctic's loss of summer ice reduces reflection of sunlight energy back into space, which coupled with retention of the extra ocean heat by a thin ice cover during winter, will notably worsen the overall yearly heat budget. New feedbacks will surely emerge but both their qualitative and quantitative specifics are for now very much up in the air.

The first animation shows the retreating ice front on the Svalbard-FJL-SZ corridor. The second animation runs from 15 Nov 17 to 01 May 18. Zero concentration regions have been picked and replaced with blue-green rimmed with yellow; solid ice is shown as gray. Both are 'grown' by one pixel to reduce clutter.

The third 4-day animation to 02 Aug 18 shows the shocking deterioration of the ice pack in the Beaufort-Chukchi region. This time of year especially, sea ice concentration in products like AMSR2 have to show a consistent blue for three or more consecutive days, allowing for ice motion, for artifacts to be distinguished.

Jaxa is working fine with no data gaps: take the 36:36:18 to its rgb components and delete all but the blue channel (18V ghz) to get rid of seasonal weather artifacts. The lesser-resolution, different wavelength result is fully supportive of AMSR2, 4th animation.

RoxGeo had a thoughtful post a ways back on melt season topology, roughly being the time reversal of freeze season (LIFO in CS) but with a topological twist: the ice pack freezes and melts along its boundary, no holes or free blocks (connected with vanishing first homotopy). It appears that August 2nd saw some catch-up, with the seemingly solid loose block off the ESS and Wrangel perhaps flashing (and maybe the Alaskan shoreline block as well). But let's see what tomorrow brings.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 02:06:47 PM »
Very interesting that you can see in this image the remnants of the thick ice flows that have been migrating from CAA into the Beaufort over the past year. Running along the Alaska coast, it is like the last line of defense for the entire Beaufort as the thin FYI ice north of this line melts out rapidly.
I think that MYI ice string/arc lost it's integrity some time ago.
amsr2-uhh, jun10-jul27
edit:Added previous ascat animation. It looks like the MYI ice didn't drift that near to the Alaskan coast before it mostly melted out

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 20, 2018, 03:22:45 PM »
For 2018 the thing that REALLY surprises me is the Bering sea.  The straight never fully froze over, and was open in February. The ice edge was so far back from what it normally is.  Many articles were written even outside of sea ice geek circles about how unusual it was.
But the ice edge has moved back so incredibly slowly in the melting season it's getting close to normal there. What the heck happened?  Where did all that extra insolation go?  Was that heat shuffled off somewhere else (like out?)  I was almost sure all those warm bering sea waters would cause all kinds of melt and it absolutely didn't materialize.
I think one of the reason is that the two adjacent Seas to Chukchi Sea are the Beaufort Sea and the ESS, which both were very laggardish this year. So a clockwise rotation would push thick ice packs from the Beaufort Sea towards the ice edge and a counterclockwise rotation (as it seems to be now) will push excess ice from ESS towards the ice edge.
Bering has warmed much in the melting season (SST is up to 15°C in some of the bays on both sides). We have no thread for the freezing season 2018/2019 but I assume that freezing in the Bering Sea will be delayed very much this coming winter, and the situation for next spring will be comparable to 2018.
Uni-Hamburg AMSR2 concentration, pacific side, for this melting season.
A significant amount of ice from the Beaufort appears to have melted in the Chukchi.
Somewhat less from ESS.
Edit:More warm winds across the chukchi from the Pacific are forecast for tomorrow.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 19, 2018, 11:19:28 PM »
Quote from: bbr2314
The Siberian smoke plume is now covering much of NW North America. If the GFS and other models are correct the first populated areas it will impact will be southern Canada and the US Northeast. By D3-4 the GFS shows the airmass centered over the Megalopolis.

Very curious to see how much smoke makes it through. It should also be noted that this will be coincidental with a cyclone turning up the frontside of the system delivering the smoke.

NASAs take:
According to Hiren Jethva, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Russia's summer fires have been more intense this year than in the past. Satellite data shows that Central Russia saw 7,200 fires during the first half of July, about four times as many fires as detected during the same period between 2013 and 2017.

needs a click

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 09:19:36 AM »
June 26-30.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 29, 2018, 10:51:40 PM »
Here's how the CMOS microwave maps look for the past 40 days.

Downloaded from:
There is a definite trend from beige to other colours: dry -> wet

I played around a bit with those SMOS images.  I wrote a script to download the daily SMOS images for June 2010-2018 and to count the number of beige pixels in each image:

Average for the first 28 days of June:

(For what it's worth...)


"A major outbreak of waterspouts happened along the coast of Emilia Romagna, north Italy, mainly near Rimini. Over 10 and likely over 15 waterspouts were reported in only about 2 hours."

Spectacular view from Gabicce Mare. Photo: Francesco Gennari.

More photos there.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 21, 2018, 08:06:31 PM »
While the rain and melt events in early June have obliterated almost all trackable ice features on the 'upper' half (Siberian side) of Ascat imagery that are needed to follow wind-driven bulk motion, deformation and dispersion of the ice pack, one of them has persisted north of Severnaya Zemlya.

It originated in mid-September northeast of the New Siberian Islands, probably as a left-over stringer of thick CAA ice from two years ago. It has not travelled all that far since Jan 1st but still might make it out the Fram by this fall.

Some individual floes in the 'lower' half can still be followed even though most of them are reversed in roughness. The web of lineations seem to be shear lines rather than pressure ridges and they too have been stable since the melt transition, though they can't be tracked long-term without going to the more difficult Sentinel-1AB.

It would be great if people saying the Beaufort Gyre has reversed could explain why direct observational data doesn't support that idea -- talking about ice movement as there's no recent data on what's going on below. The motion of the Arctic ice pack is very complicated though still vaguely clockwise since mid-Sept 2017.

Warned 30 years ago, global warming ‘is in our living room’
We were warned.

On June 23, 1988, a sultry day in Washington, James Hansen told Congress and the world that global warming wasn’t approaching — it had already arrived. The testimony of the top NASA scientist, said Rice University historian Douglas Brinkley, was “the opening salvo of the age of climate change.”

Thirty years later, it’s clear that Hansen and other doomsayers were right. But the change has been so sweeping that it is easy to lose sight of effects large and small — some obvious, others less conspicuous.

Earth is noticeably hotter, the weather stormier and more extreme. Polar regions have lost billions of tons of ice; sea levels have been raised by trillions of gallons of water. Far more wildfires rage.

Over 30 years — the time period climate scientists often use in their studies in order to minimize natural weather variations — the world’s annual temperature has warmed nearly 1 degree (0.54 degrees Celsius), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And the temperature in the United States has gone up even more — nearly 1.6 degrees.

“The biggest change over the last 30 years, which is most of my life, is that we’re no longer thinking just about the future,” said Kathie Dello, a climate scientist at Oregon State University in Corvallis. “Climate change is here, it’s now and it’s hitting us hard from all sides.”'a-different-world'-over-3-decades

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 01:21:18 AM »
No chance of an ice-free Arctic for at least 20 years.

That is false. There is a very low chance this year, increasing  every year that gets warmer and the weather more extreme. Saying there is no chance it will happen before 2037 is simply not true.

This year the uncertainties are the early opening of the Bering, a thin CAB, no ice North of Svalbard and the ever present warmer planet.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 08, 2018, 06:47:42 AM »
Distinctly blue coastal (?fast) sea ice for about 300-400 km either side of the Lena River delta in the Laptev Sea.  Image from June 6.   Unaltered corrected reflectance (true color) image from Worldview. 

Science / Emerging trends in global freshwater availability
« on: May 16, 2018, 08:15:56 PM »
Newly analyzed data from groundwater-detecting satellites reveals a clear human fingerprint on the global water cycle.

“We are very literally seeing all of the hotspots for climate change, for changing extremes of flooding and drought, and for the impact of human water management….”

The map offers a powerful first glimpse of what climate change and over-exploitation of water resources looks like — a “global pattern of freshwater redistribution, due to climate change,” according to Famiglietti. It’s stark, visual evidence that the way humans use water is unsustainable.
The study’s authors took 14 years of data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which measures minute fluctuations in the Earth’s gravitational field as water moves around the planet. They then tried to track down the root causes of the biggest changes they found — an analysis that took eight years to complete. In two-thirds of the cases, the researchers discovered a direct link to human activity. And in some of those, especially in remote regions of southern Africa and China, the colossal scale of the shifts was previously unknown.

The study:
Emerging trends in global freshwater availability
Freshwater availability is changing worldwide. Here we quantify 34 trends in terrestrial water storage observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites during 2002–2016 and categorize their drivers as natural interannual variability, unsustainable groundwater consumption, climate change or combinations thereof. Several of these trends had been lacking thorough investigation and attribution, including massive changes in northwestern China and the Okavango Delta. Others are consistent with climate model predictions. This observation-based assessment of how the world’s water landscape is responding to human impacts and climate variations provides a blueprint for evaluating and predicting emerging threats to water and food security.

The next generation of GRACE satellites, now scheduled for launching next Tuesday, May 22, should provide additional evidence of exactly how humans are altering the planet’s water cycle, and with more accuracy.

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