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Messages - Susan Anderson

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The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 14, 2019, 08:54:13 AM »
<snip, I've decided not to go through the same motions>

Martin, maybe you haven't noticed, but ever since I've taken some measures to limit the amount of space mainstream conditioned thinking gets to take up on this forum, the belligerent bitching has been reduced by 90%. I really like it that way, much more quiet and interesting. Things have improved massively.

It's not that you have "taken some measures".
It's that a fair amount of commenters (including me) left, after we were told in no uncertain terms that our input on the ASIF was no longer appreciated.
And yes, that cleared up things tremendously, since now only the pro-Russia crowd is left over.
They are still promoting Jimmy Dore and RT, as you can see above.

It's just that there is no more push-back against that Russian propaganda.

This place can do without missionaries who impose their worn-out, 20th century narratives that come straight out of the divide-and-conquer strategies pushed by concentrated wealth (irrespective of nationality) to keep the wars and AGW going strong, because this Forum is about Arctic sea ice loss, not about politics.

You know, Neven : this hurts.

I came here in 2011, while fighting the deniers at WUWT, hoping to find here a crowd that was using evidence-based reasoning and science to come to conclusions about AGW and Arctic Sea Ice decline.

I feel extremely strong about AGW. Probably even more so than you do. But I approach the problem and the solution from a scientific, and engineering and economics point of view. For example : Solar farms make sense, and solar roads don't. Shutting down coal plants make sense, and so does installing grid batteries, but geo-engineering doesn't make sense, and neither does the Keystone XL (tar-sands) pipeline.

And yes, I feel very strong about Russia too. Russia has no business invading in Ukraine, and their role in the downing of MH17 cannot be denied, and neither can their meddling in foreign elections, including the US 2016 elections, and neither can we deny the poisoning of the Skripals in the UK nor the Russian bombing of hospitals in Syria.

I'm really sorry you disagree with me and some other posters here (like Martin, Susan, ASLR, Bob Wallace etc) on some issues.

But I think you are making a big mistake in booting these fine people out.

Instead, you could have booted out the Russian propagandists that we argued with.
That would have quieted down the discussion too.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 02, 2019, 12:11:30 PM »
Another calving in preparation ?
A big central crack appears to be opening, quite visible on this sharp image :

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: December 21, 2018, 11:27:40 PM »
This stuff gets more crazy by the day...  ???

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: August 14, 2018, 12:05:00 PM »

As at 13 August 2018

Melt still high - down to 37% from 40% and not much precipitation giving another above average SMB loss.

The outlook on temperatures from now looks like warm fringes but a cold interior that will limit but not completely stop melting. And very little precipitation forecast for the next ten days. So maybe SMB will reduce a little bit more.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 13, 2018, 01:27:33 AM »
I think that this video from February 2018 is worth watching:


Extract: "In his new book, It’s Even Worse Than You Think, Johnston is going where the media won’t—into the weeds—to shed new light on the Trump administration’s policies and bureaucratic choices and how they will change America. Join Johnston for a revealing conversation about the Trump administration’s impact on our finances, health care, safety and much, much more."

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: August 12, 2018, 10:11:26 AM »
I nominate the good (nay, great) journalism of Gavin Esler, ex BBC:

Not only about Brexit, but also.....

The idea of supposed ‘balance’ when confronted by “campaigns of disinformation and hate” is especially problematic. In Belfast in the 1980s, even with the bombs going off, balance meant hearing from both unionists and nationalists, Protestants and Catholics. But more recently how can any news organisation ‘balance’ the overwhelming weight of worldwide scientific opinion about MMR vaccines or climate change with the crackpot anti-vaccine theories of Andrew Wakefield or of those who claim climate change is somehow ‘fake news’?

When Lord Lawson used to appear regularly on television to pontificate on the supposed lack of evidence on climate change to ‘balance’ the informed opinions of the best climate scientists worldwide, I wondered why anyone should take seriously the scientific wisdom of a not especially distinguished former chancellor of the exchequer. Would you trust Lord Lawson’s ‘expertise’ to fix your teeth after he read a couple of books on dentistry? So why did he become the go-to ‘balance’ guy for climate scepticism on television and radio?
Lord Lawson, when not offering his expert opinions on climate change, premenstrual tension, or whatever else he claims to know about, is seeking French residency.

So all we have to do is vote the bastards out?

Frozen machines, 243-percent turnout, and other woes in Georgia voting
In 2017, a report by a Georgian security researcher revealed a shocking lack of security throughout the state's voting system. Later that year, we discovered that servers that were thought to be key evidence for the same federal lawsuit that has led to this week's news were wiped, then repeatedly degaussed.

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: August 09, 2018, 10:22:33 AM »
Where Dore is only talking about having "more speech" against the hate mongerers like Alex Jones, John Oliver actually delivers. In his own brilliant way.

Well, Jimmy Dore spit Alex Jones in the face not too long ago,
That's Jimmy Dore's idea of "more speech" ?

and I'm sure he's done several segments on him over the years, so there you go.
I'm not so sure of that. You have an example of where Dore addresses Jones ?
The problem is that Dore and Jones share promoting the same conspiracy theories (UraniumGate come to mind).

Progressive (more or less) commentators like Kyle Kulinski, David Pakman and Sam Seder have segments on Alex Jones all the time.
I'm sure you are right. But an example would be nice.
What I like about the John Oliver bit, is that he does it with satire, which is the most powerful way of addressing bad stuff.
I don't see why that is such a big deal.

That's because you have trouble separating your personal tastes from general principles. You stand 100% behind establishment narratives, so as long as corporate media doesn't get turned off, there's not much of a problem.
C'mon Neven.
ASIF is not different from corporate platforms.
There are rules that users need to comply with.
You currently impose them at will. At your own discretion.
For example, if ISIS starts posting on ASIF, what would you do ?
I hope you would shut them down.

If you are a bigger company, you need to post some rules, so that you can shut them down with reason. That's not "establishment narratives" but just common sense.
Simply shutting things down, because you don't like them, is never going to solve anything and gets you further and further away from a free society.

Facebook and Youtube did not shut down Alex Jones because they "don't like them".
They shut him down because he violated their posting guidelines against hate speech and inciting violence.

ASIF still does not seem to have any posting guidelines.
Other platforms do. Here are the ones from metabunk (who I respect very much) :

Would that serve as a good example of posting guidelines for ASIF ?

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 08, 2018, 08:51:29 AM »
Acknowledge Russian aggression and hold them accountable.

Fine, I acknowledge ALL aggression and want to hold EVERYONE accountable. I'm not going to focus exclusively on one party

We were talking about Russia's actions and MH17 specifically.
When I first asked to hold Russia accountable for MH17 you told me to "stop this tantrum."
Now you want to hold "EVERYONE" accountable for this crime ?

Seriously, Neven, can't you just face the fact that only ONE party (Russia) shot down this airliner, and caused the death of 298 innocent people ?

your turning the words in his (everyone's) mouth as you feel fit, he never meant to hold everyone accountable for MH17 you just injected that event to make your point like so often.

be happy that he's so patient and let's us post all that BS each day.

I may be wrong, but I've re-read the exchange on this, and it seems rather clear that Neven referred to Russian aggression, and MH17 specifically when he wrote "Fine, I acknowledge ALL aggression and want to hold EVERYONE accountable.".

For example, he explicitly did NOT want to resort to ALL forms of aggression (which would be what-about-ism) on this thread :
Shall I now post thousands of quotes by brown people whose children died or were maimed due to US military actions? No, it would be a very weak argument...

Also, it was in the context of Russian aggression that he wrote :

Trump was 100% right when he said that both countries have made mistakes.

even though neither he nor Trump gave any example of a mistake that the US made Re Russia.

And it was in the context of Russia's downing of MH17 (and my quote of Anthony Maslin) that he wrote "stop this tantrum".

So it seems very clear to me that when he wrote "Fine, I acknowledge ALL aggression and want to hold EVERYONE accountable. I'm not going to focus exclusively on one party" that it was regarding Russian aggression (and MH17 specifically), and that he believes that multiple parties were at fault.

I challenge that opinion, arguing that only ONE party was responsible for downing MH17.

I let Neven clarify if he meant something else.

Also, let's take a step back for a moment. There are many here who point out RussiaGate "hysteria". In Neven's words :

"the amount of energy and attention that is invested in all this is out of all proportion, not just on this forum, but everywhere".

Here is the thing : Russia does a lot of bad things, and they lie about them, blaming others or the victims. That does not sit right with many people. For example, MH17 is at the top of my list as a blatant act of Russian aggression, and the lies out of Russia on this subject sicken me. I see that Max Boot feels very strongly about Russia's cyber attacks during the 2016 US elections. And many other people reprehend Russia's aggression in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, the Skripal case, Syria bombing of hospitals and mosques, etc etc.

A response to all this is not "out of proportion", unless you don't care or want to ignore or deny what Russia is doing.

It's really just people being upset about all of the bad behavior of the Putin government.

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 06, 2018, 03:35:36 PM »
Now things are way more desperate. Anybody who believes Trump over the intelligence professionals (incl. those of Britain, Estonia, Spain, Australia, ...) needs exploratory brain surgery.

Why always the binary choice? Is it because you are a mathematician? There's a third option: Believe neither, oppose both.
Russiagate is an either-or question. Either it is serious or it is not. I could declare it irrelevant (third option). Having watched in 2016 I do not. Trump is a liar, his whole persona rests on lies. Therefore I believe the spooks who contradict him: It is serious.

But not just for this logic. What the spooks say is fucken consistent (I have watched closely in 2016).

Back in my university life I had to check and grade piles of maths homework, plus exams and seminar papers. Pure logic alone doesn't help for such a job, if you want to get it done in finite time. You also need an intuitive sense for (in)consistency and muddled/clear argument. (And this work also trains this sense.) So, first a smell test of the paper, then checking the details for the grading.

My nose tells me the Russiagate deniers and lukewarmers are inconsistent and muddled. (Wishful thinking, ideo-logical brain damage, emotional rejection of inconvenient truths, eager embrace of convenient fake stuff, making up stuff, etc. etc.)
And almost every time I check some detail I find my intuition vindicated.

He's like a bad influenza, spreading across the blog, infecting threads as he goes.

from my 'favorite' political blog (
Interesting:  nothing (almost) about "Corporate Democrats" in either camp!

I think it's a perceptive essay.  There really is a tension between advancing social justice and winning elections.  It's important not to let that tension turn into Democratic internal warfare.  Because then the Neanderthals win.

The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: August 03, 2018, 05:51:07 PM »

So it's easy to say The above is nonsense, and The VIPS report is garbage which is fine to do, however it would be wise to also remember that there is NO EVIDENCE contained in those Indictments.

Depends on what you call evidence.  If a blogger states a number of facts and conclusions, and it's all fabricated bogus crap, he faces no consequences.

A prosecutor is an officer of the court.  If a prosecutor states a number of facts and conclusions, and it's all fabricated bogus crap, he faces possible disbarment and disgrace, personal ruin.  Possibly criminal charges.

So who are you going to believe?  Highly detailed, specific information from a highly credible source, stated under oath (or equivalent) is evidence, in most people's book.

Consider that Mueller's investigation is not just a criminal investigation, but *also* a national security investigation.  He has access to everything in the national security system.  We all know the NSA hoovers up most internet traffic, even stuff that doesn't pass into the US.  This information is confidential, but relevant data can be selectively declassified for purposes of criminal prosecution.    Mueller has assured the court that he's prepared to present evidence referred to in the indictment.  There's no higher level of proof that can be public.

from my 'favorite' political blog (
The Democrats Are Having an Identity Crisis at an Inconvenient Moment

Election analyst Thomas Edsall has a fascinating piece in the New York Times about the Democrats' dilemma. In short, the Democratic Party is two things. It is a normal political party, whose goal is to win as many elections as it can. It is also an engine for social change and a representative of formerly powerless constituencies such as blacks, women, gay people, Latinos, etc. This split is the root of the Democrats' problems.

No party can be all things to all people. FDR was a strong advocate of rural Americans, unions, and working-class people generally. Ending economic inequality was a main driving force in his Party. Starting with the civil rights movement in the 1950s, Democrats became more focused on race and identity than on economics. Thus began the shift of white people away from the Democrats. If the Democrats had said (like the Republicans): "To hell with social justice, we want to win elections," they wouldn't have gone all out for civil rights, which resulted in the solid (Democratic) South becoming the solid (Republican) South. Nowadays, civil rights have moved to the back burner, but when Democrats support the right of anyone to use whatever bathroom they want to, they are again discovering that fighting for social justice and winning elections don't always go together.

Another factor that is causing the Democrats grief is the rise of the affluent urban professional as a key part of the Democratic Party. These people have different priorities than the average voter, according to the Voter Study Group's survey of 8,000 Americans in 2016 and also in 2011-2012. The Democratic elite gave top priority to different issues than the population at large. These included gay rights (61%, vs. 34% for the average voter), gender equality (69% vs. 35%), and racial equality (66% to 39%). In other words, the Party's social goals put it at odds with many voters, who have different priorities.

What are those priorities? They are terrorism (58% for all voters vs. 12% for the elites), crime (57% vs. 18%), taxes (57% vs. 19%), the budget deficit (51% vs. 5%), religious liberty (48% vs. 22%), and immigration (46% vs. 17%). So if the Democrats would just forget about gay rights, gender equality, and racial equality and focus on terrorism, crime, and taxes, they would do better. Of course, then they would be Republicans, who, by and large, have no social goals and will support whatever position gets them the most votes. This year, however, the Democrats are starting to put more emphasis on winning elections than on who uses which bathroom, with Conor Lamb being the poster child for this shift. Of course, come 2020, the old split is likely to emerge again. (V)
Interesting:  nothing (almost) about "Corporate Democrats" in either camp!  [Edit: put quote in quote box.]

The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: August 03, 2018, 04:55:27 PM »
The above is nonsense, and we've discussed these issues here before.
You can't conclude anything from time zone stamps, because they can be set, reset, forgotten to be set--to any time zone on any computer.

Time stamps to the second can indicate something about transfer speed--but not at which step of transfer.  Initial access speeds may not be what's reflected here, but transfer speeds at some later step in the cascade of transfers prior to publication.  No conclusions can be drawn.  This kind of metadata is useless for forensic purposes.

No, Assange cannot possibly say the files were not from Russia.  He can only say who he got the files from, not where that person obtained them.

The VIPS report is garbage.  The Mueller indictment is the most authoritative public information about Guccifer 2.0.


The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: August 03, 2018, 03:52:54 PM »
The above is nonsense, and we've discussed these issues here before.
You can't conclude anything from time zone stamps, because they can be set, reset, forgotten to be set--to any time zone on any computer.

Time stamps to the second can indicate something about transfer speed--but not at which step of transfer.  Initial access speeds may not be what's reflected here, but transfer speeds at some later step in the cascade of transfers prior to publication.  No conclusions can be drawn.  This kind of metadata is useless for forensic purposes.

No, Assange cannot possibly say the files were not from Russia.  He can only say who he got the files from, not where that person obtained them.

The VIPS report is garbage.  The Mueller indictment is the most authoritative public information about Guccifer 2.0.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: August 03, 2018, 04:56:04 AM »
A friend sent me this link which I thought made some more sense cf. the earlier one!



Thanks for the linked article, but that article indicates that a psychopath could not handle the pressure in the oval office; which certainly cannot be true; just read the linked answers to the question: What is a high-functioning psychopath?

Title: "What is a high-functioning psychopath?"

Extract: "High-functioning psychopaths can often appear ‘successful’ in conventional terms. However, they inevitably leave a hidden trail of devastation behind them - cheating on their spouses, emotional abuse, irresponsible behavior etc.

Psychopaths present themselves as likeable, open, truthful and honest (a 'mask') in order to gain our trust, whilst mixing in lies and subtle disinformation. They are now manipulating us. They also create doubt and confusion until we don’t know who or what to believe, and undermine and discredit those they see as a threat with their subtle innuendos and suggestions (‘smear campaigns’).

Roughly 1% of the general population are psychopaths; 4% of top corporate personnel are psychopaths (‘Corporate psychopathy: talking the walk’, Babiak, Neumann and Hare).

A high functioning psychopath is intelligent enough to do skillful jobs such as doctor, professor, social worker, psychologist or company CEO. They lack empathy or fear and have no conscience. In this respect they are like low functioning psychopaths but there the resemblance ends.

The low functioning psychopath lacks impulse control and engages in crimes of opportunity. The high functioning psychopath is goal directed and carefully lays out and follows a decided course of action they they follow through on."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 02, 2018, 10:39:28 AM »
Clear worldview images :) One advantage of clear skies. Unfortunately it's probably bad for the ice...

I think everything to the left of the red arrow is, especially if melting conditions aren't unfavorable, at risk to completely meltout, seeing the state of the ice. Luckily only about 6 weeks till melting season ends.

And the part between the orange lines doesn't look that good either, if that melts out the CAB falls apart...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 07:34:57 PM »
Over the last couple of weeks we see some fast ice lifting off northern tip of Greenland - Cape Morris Jesup area.

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: August 01, 2018, 07:09:15 PM »

I'm talking about the outrage, the attention it gets in the media, the way people talk about it on social media. It's out of all proportion, and that's because people let themselves be whipped up in a frenzy. 

The media hypes the importance of every story.
Social media is filled with outrage over unimportant stuff.
I'm not sure anyone of importance is anywhere near acting in a frenzy.

Skripal poisoning was a false-flag effort to act against Russia?  All that happened was a reciprocal removal of diplomats.  Perfectly proportional.

Syrian army gas attacks were a conspiracy to act against Assad?  A couple of military targets got bombed, with virtually no casualties.  Nobody calling for an invasion.  Perfectly proportional.

Russian election meddling was a hoax to effect action against Russia?  No, there's solid evidence, and all Russia has suffered is some sanctions. No military response. Perfectly proportional.

Where it counts, there is no Russophobia.  There is a recognition, though, that Putin is geopolitically ambitious.  Proportionate responses are called for to dissuade him from disrupting important alliances.

There is no Russophobia here, not where it matters.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 03:44:03 PM »
Does the setup of the past months resemble a two-cell system instead of the classic three-cell system setup in the NH? If it stays like that also for the winter, what are the consequences?

What I have noticed is a hybrid 3/2 pattern where there are 3 cells on one side of the NH and 2 on the other. The 3/2 pattern advects heat into the polar regions very effectively. Winter patterns are very different from summer patterns because there is no stratospheric polar night jet and the flow and thermal gradients are much weaker in the summer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 10:18:59 AM »

Anomaly 7.7C. Water temperature is 25.1C.
Sorry for off topic, but I do like to swim in the Baltic sea now. I can't remember ever such warm water conditions

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 03:50:43 AM »
We have had an atmospheric circulation vortex around Greenland for over 3 months that was brought on by the major stratospheric warming in February. That stratospheric warming was caused by the strongest wave driving event, which drove energy upwards from the troposphere to the top of the stratosphere, on record.

High drama in rarefied air

This winter, on February 12, 2018, most of us probably were unaware of the compelling drama unfolding high above the Arctic.  The stratospheric polar vortex, the region of west-to-east winds that circle 6 to 30 miles above the pole, (1) experienced a massive breakdown.  The normally west-to-east winds suddenly slowed and switched direction completely as the stratosphere rapidly warmed more than 50 degrees F in a matter of days (see figure below). .....

Why did this sudden stratospheric warming occur? And more importantly (for blog purposes, at least), why should you care?  Let’s start with the first why. Under the right conditions in winter (2), large atmospheric waves (more than 1000 miles across) travel from the lower atmosphere into the stratosphere. These waves break in the stratosphere, like ocean waves on a beach, transferring a tremendous amount of energy to the atmosphere.

The effect is to slow down the winds of the polar vortex (sometimes splitting it into two smaller vortices).  As the winds slow, air sinks and rapidly warms while the stratospheric air is compressed. This sequence of events is exactly what happened this past February—in fact, we experienced a record-breaking movement of large-scale waves into the stratosphere...

The atmosphere has been destabilized by GHGs. Sudden stratospheric warmings are getting stronger as predicted by climate models. This is affecting summers in the Arctic. The SSW transferred momentum downwards to the tropospheric jet stream, expanding it to record momentum levels in late February and March. After the atmosphere blew its energy in March like a Vegas gambler the jet stream retreated into a vortex around Greenland linked to a track displaced polewards of normal over the Pacific and western north America. Intense high pressure over the subtropical north Atlantic and strong trade winds over the tropics drove heat northwards out of the tropical Atlantic.

Humans are not the rational beings they "THINK" they are (that IS just thought by the way). We are emotional beings through and through with some token capacity to reason.

Every time a person believes a thought and has a physical response they are being duped by whats not happening. That is the old Indian "spirituality" snake and rope story.

It is not some great teaching. It is a description of a physiological trap we have found are selves in after centuries of believing we are the thoughts and stories in the system. Dust bunnies really. I didn't put them there.

It is ok to have memory. But to believe that they are true or TRUTH is delusion.

The universe (whats dat?) is absolutely and always fine and ok and life is actually not personal it is a much more encompassing thing (what's dat again?).

When it is over it will not have been a mistake. It will simply be what played out. The TRUTH of it all will not be affected in the least (some kind of "EMPTY" subjective, ah no can't touch that, nothing can be said about the other direction).

Now what? ;-)

Let's play a good hand. The best hand we could have ever played at this juncture!!!! Not some mediocre nonsense but what would the breakout archetype do. Hmmm probably not be that concerned except for the entertainment value unfortunately.

Me, I like to share what I see. As far and as wide as I can. Soon to go out on more airwaves in support of the few.

At least the others wont wake up towards the end and say holy crap if I knew this was going on I would have done things different the last few years.

People do not like their beliefs messed with. They get very ornery. That I have learned the hard way.

But it is OUR story and what is happening at least APPEARS to be happening and that is all that counts.

Play on ;-) 8) 8) 8)


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 30, 2018, 10:38:37 AM »
Sorry mostly, sometimes I do a double take and decide it's better to say nothing than something.
That's fine.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 28, 2018, 01:29:07 PM »
I hear Russian hacker groups are hacking and disturbing campaigns of some democrats. I believe this is normal in Trumpistan, but I wouldn't say that a free democratic country anyway, f.e. their justice system is shaky like in some third world country.

The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: July 27, 2018, 06:19:10 PM »
@SteveMFDP: I think that's unlikely. We have a complex situation unfolding, even if we could provide courtworthy evidence. Also, Democrats have no power until (hopefully) January 7, 2019. Republicans are so corrupt and happy with their tax cuts and court stuffings they will continue to do what they can to delegitimize our legal authorities. We seem to have given too much power to our president. Those criminals will not go quietly and I doubt they will hide.

I think most probably Trump stays in the White House until the end of his term.  2/3 majority in the Senate to remove seems quite improbable.  So I differ fairly strongly with Buddy on the timeline.  But as soon as he no longer holds Presidential power, he's on an express lane to prison.  Retiring to posh house arrest in Moscow is plausible.  And as a trial would mean public presentation of lots of damning evidence, it's in every corrupt player's interest for Trump not to be around in the US to go to trial.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 24, 2018, 06:58:43 PM »

Neven: Putin needs better economic prosperity in Russia to stay comfortably in power.
There is nobody in Russia that could remotely challenge Putin. Even after he raised the retirement age for government benefits he still has over 66% approval. I can only imagine how fast Trump supporters would dump Trump if he tried this.

Well, yes.  And no.  Putin has seen, close up, quite a number of seemingly rock-solid regimes swept away in surprisingly rapid turns of events.  Popular discontent being the only common denominator.

But even if Putin felt absolutely secure in his own personal situation, I think he's still a Russian patriot (in his own kleptocratic way).  I think he wants his country to prosper.  Plus, all the global influence a strong economy can bring.

Thus, I think Putin's #1 geopolitical goal is probably to raise oil prices.  Electing Trump and gutting the Iran nuclear deal both fit in well with such a goal.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 24, 2018, 01:47:40 PM »
I thought all we had to do to solve AGW, was beat the climate risk deniers.
Nope, we have to break the global fossil industrial complex. And that's a major reason why I care about Russiagate.

Re: "Rachel Maddow is a warmonger now"

I think she finds that warmongering increases ratings right now.  That might change.

Yes, that would be more accurate. Anything that keeps the froth going. It'll be interesting to see how many trial transcripts she can ultra-fast-read in the coming six years and whether that will boost ratings (read: salary) even higher.
Paranoia again. I can't imagine a less ratings oriented show. She got her ratings because she is doing a great job connecting dots and explaining stuff. (One of my all-time TRMS favorites was on the Exxon quasi-state.)

BTW, in 2012 she wrote a widely acclaimed book titled "Drift: The Unmooring of American Military Power". Maybe I should read it. But according to an Amazon review she didn't get the fossil energy connection.

Neven, I can't evade the impression you also are a "useful idiot" (a technical term) -- I'm not yet thinking you are a Russian asset...

We are all useful idiots, hence the state of the world (have you voted on this one yet?).
Voted now :) I thought the question is foolish (or perhaps it is temporal logic) and decided in that moment's whim to click "No, I'm most definitely not a fool" :)

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: July 19, 2018, 02:38:11 PM »
So I checked why Trumputin is a bit obsessed with Montenegro... Neven might find this interesting...
“Russia’s interest in Montenegro heightened several years ago. As the reliability of its naval base in Tartus, Syria became less certain, Russia began seeking alternatives. In September 2013, the Russian government requested a meeting with the Montenegrin Ministry of Defense to discuss the temporary moorage of Russian warships at the ports of Bar and Kotor,” Tuesday’s report reads. “By Moscow’s proposal, Russian ships would dock under a privileged status that would allow for the extensive use of territorial waters.”

Djukanovic, however, rejected these advances. In response, Russia set out to put people into power who would reverse the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration and allow Russia to gain a foothold in the country. That’s where the coup plot and Montenegro’s Democratic Front came in, according to Tuesday's report.

Montenegro’s Democratic Front (DF) is a right-wing opposition group made up of nationalist Serbs, Russophiles and a variety of fringe groups that oppose the country’s NATO membership. According to the report, the DF planned to declare victory during the 2016 parliamentary elections. Dikic and his crew, disguised as Montenegrin police, would open fire on pro-DF demonstrators, giving the appearance that pro-Djukanovic police were trying to prevent the DF from taking power. Meanwhile, the Russian military officials were standing by to offer assistance.

But the coup plot fell apart. (...)

Looks like a Trump adviser read the following Observer article, and thus Trump called Montenegrins "very agressive":

Montenegro is a tiny country, but its people are famously tough and don’t like to be pushed around.


The two Russians were quickly expelled from the country. That several of the Serbs and Montenegrins who were arrested for their role in the plot had served with Russian forces fighting in eastern Ukraine—where Moscow’s proxy war has included the use of foreign mercenaries, including Slavic nationalists from Eastern Europe—appeared to be more than a coincidence. Security services in the Balkans and beyond suspected that Russian intelligence was the hidden hand behind the plot, which seemed plausible given the large amounts of cash and the late-model communications gear found in the possession of the coup plotters.


Now, however, there is solid evidence that the Kremlin was directly behind the plot against Montenegro. As explained this week by Milivoje Katnić, the country’s top special prosecutor, the coup and assassination plot was the handiwork of Moscow. The ringleader was Eduard Shirokov, an officer of Russia’s military intelligence service, known as GRU. This was a fully Kremlin-orchestrated clandestine operation to kill Prime Minister Djukanović and overthrow the government, Katnić elaborated.

Predrag Bosković, Montenegro’s defense minister, stated there is “not any doubt” that Russian intelligence officials were behind the plot, using Russian, Serbian, and Montenegrin volunteers to do the dirty work of shooting up the parliament and assassinating the prime minister. Western intelligence has assisted Montenegrin authorities in the inquiry, and American and British spy agencies—particularly NSA and its British partner, GCHQ—have compiled impressive evidence of Russian complicity behind the plot.

As reported by the Telegraph, signals intelligence, including intercepted phone calls and emails, makes clear that the Kremlin planned and organized the secret operation to use violence to keep Montenegro out of NATO. This conclusion has been confirmed to me by sources in the Intelligence Community, one of whom described the NSA and GCHQ intercepts showing Russian complicity as “ironclad—we have them cold.” How much of that SIGINT has been shared with Podgorica isn’t clear, but it was obviously enough to convince Montenegro that it could confidently call out Moscow for its malfeasance.

Moreover, Shirokov, the plotter-in-chief, was previously identified as a GRU officer by NATO. In 2014, he was expelled from Poland ...


(now back to the sun and my garden)

Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: July 17, 2018, 02:12:41 PM »
Kelp and sadly also plastics can make it to Antarctica if storms help them across the ACC:

Antarctica is surrounded by the circumpolar current, an endless loop of water pushing ever-eastward, driven by the powerful southern winds and unobstructed by land, other than being forced through the narrow gap between the Antarctic Peninsula and Tierra del Fuego. Although whales and seabirds can power across this obstacle, few other life forms can do so, keeping the frozen continent almost biologically isolated from the rest of the planet.

At least that is what was believed, until the Universidad de Concepción's Dr Erasmo Macaya, unable to do the work he had come to King George Island to do, spent a lot of time walking along the beaches looking at seaweed. Macaya noticed that some of the kelp didn't look like it should be there. The oceans off Antarctica, cold as they are, do support some kelp species, but Macaya's finds were Durvillaea antarctica, which somewhat ironically does not normally live close to the continent with which it shares its name.

More details on:

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: July 16, 2018, 12:03:22 AM »
2) I know how to wield Occam's Razor.

In that case you'll probably know that Trump has become president because the American people is suffering and is fed up with being screwed over by both parties that only serve big money interests, as exemplified by the only presidential candidate who could be beaten by Trump.
Oh yeah, yadda yadda yadda, and now The Stupid People get screwed over worse than ever... 

Self-maiming with Occam's Razor: Cut away Hillary, bright progressive voter, and voila, a great rationale for having a Donald Trump and his swamp. But everybody is corrupt anyway, so it doesn't matter. Heck, did I say stupid?

If Russian meddling gets your panties in a knot,
It doesn't. What about you? :)

it's maybe time to read a couple of history books. And ask Angela Merkel who was tapping her phone,
Whataboutism... A denialist classic from kindergarten to Hannity.

while you're at it (but somehow it was impossible to tap the Trump campaign).
Who knows?

Russiagate/Russophobia is one big smokescreen to draw attention away from the real issues,
This is conspirational ideation combined with whataboutism.

if I see or read something I find interesting.
You have made amply clear that Russiagte is not interesting. Except when a denier speaks up.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 15, 2018, 05:54:36 PM »
Kucinich ? Ohio boy. Fairly far out there on some things like flying saucers, but i like him.

Well, let me qualify that. He lost a lot of credibility with me after he rolled over on public option for health care after a plane ride with obama.

Had he not rolled over on the public option, the ACA would have failed.  Several blue dogs would have voted against a deal with a public option.  The ACA didn't go nearly far enough, but it was a major advance over  the  old status quo.   Kucinich did the right thing.


Worth posting the image (and the commentary)

Een 100 meter hoge ijsberg op drift bedreigt de kusten van Groenland. De lokale autoriteiten hebben uit voorzorg alvast mensen geëvacueerd.
De Groenlandse politie maande de kustbewoners van het eiland Innaarsuit aan weg te trekken van de kust. Ze vreest dat hun woningen onderlopen als het reusachtige ijsblok breekt. “We vrezen dat de ijsberg kalft, wat een overstroming zou veroorzaken”, aldus veiligheidschef Lina Davidsen.

Het dorp, dat in het noordwesten van Groenland ligt, telt 169 inwoners. Enkel zij die in de nabijheid van de ijsberg wonen, werden geëvacueerd. “De ijsberg drijft nog altijd dicht bij het dorp, de politie is aan het bespreken hoe het nu verder moet”, zei Kunuk Frediksen, een hoge officier van de Groenlandse politie.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 12, 2018, 05:19:04 PM »
We haven't seen the end of Bannon's dirty work to promote Trumpism:

Title: "Bannon hosts Europopulists in London ahead of Trump's visit"
Extract: "With London distracted by soccer and Brexit, the president's former strategist has set up shop at a five-star hotel to fuel Europe's surging brand of Trumpism.

A day before President Donald Trump’s arrival here, leaders of Europe’s rough-edged populist movement quietly filed into a five-star hotel in London’s Mayfair district, unnoticed by summer tourists enjoying their clotted cream.

Louis Aliot, a right-wing French politician and boyfriend of the French populist firebrand Marine Le Pen, walked through the lobby to a conference room tucked away behind the restaurant serving afternoon tea. So did Nigel Farage, the right-wing British politician and Brexit mastermind whom the local tabloids say is “banned” by his government from meeting with Trump during his visit.

Ben Harris-Quinney, chairman of a prominent London conservative think tank, lingered by the concierge booth as he discussed ways Trump’s British fans can offer him a warm greeting amid planned protests and a giant inflatable diapered Trump baby set to fly over the city. “We’re trying to tell the story that there is a strong well of support,” said Harris-Quinney.

They had all come to see Trump’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon, who had set up a bare war room, of sorts, in a conference room at the hotel to confer and conspire with leaders of Europe’s surging populist movement. Bannon's goal, he said in a brief interview between meetings, is to help “contextualize Trump” for a European audience that hates him and a fiery tabloid media culture that he believes doesn’t give the American president a fair shake.
It was a reminder that Europe’s version of Trumpism is thriving — from England to France to Italy — even if Trump himself may not make much of a splash when he arrives here Thursday night."

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 11, 2018, 01:55:12 PM »
How about a trip down memory lane?
"The “new normal” of American politics is not normal. The Weekly List reminds us of that. On a weekly basis, the List tracks specific news stories representing eroding norms under the current regime. Taken together, they reveal a nation pushed towards authoritarianism, the wielding of unchecked governmental authority by one person or group at the expense of the freedom of those who oppose them."
This is how democracy dies.

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: July 09, 2018, 02:30:59 PM »
The 'monster' iceberg: What happened next?

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: July 08, 2018, 12:44:37 PM »
Unless Ivica gets involved no doubt....i'll bet she takes a bad ass penalty kick  ;D

I don't know, you'll have to ask his wife.  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 08, 2018, 02:12:58 AM »
The collapse of the Roman empire took centuries, and I suspect it didn't become a "collapse" until historians began looking at in modern times.

Other than that I totally agree with Ned W after only some three or four years of watching this forum. Every year we get a chorus of doomsayers that think they understand everything so much better than everybody else. Funnily enough, every year the chorus has new members - wonder if the unusually noisome pack of doomsayers this year will still be so cock-sure next year.

On the other hand, the Ice will melt out eventually, and I (and many others apparently) think that the end could be quite sudden. But this year? Nope.

+1 and in addition to that:

a) can't see why there is always so much opposition to everyone who is trying to point out some truth

b) this should not be about who is right but about doing our joint best to gather as much knowledge as possible, this includes errors and extremes at times.

c) there is an actual empire that started to collapse with all and the same ingredients than the late roman, greek and egyptian empire just to name a few. there is a thread on the matter even.

i like this thread no matter if every detail is exactly true and no matter whether we shall see a kind of sudden death within 5 years or in the year 7 or 12 or any other from now. thing is it will happen and trying to be prepared is nothing that should be criticised so much and since none of us knows exactly when and all the details we should just read and learn as much as we can.

as to who can post what, some of us are a bit on the angry side at times (like myself) and again others are constantly exaggerating and in the process damage credibility. two things to learn
beside other things like claiming bragging rights for stating the obvious, that's the real boring
stuff because to see that everyone can search the web, no special skills needed.

a reasonably good prediction and assessment is much braver and difficult to achieve and logically comes along with many errors while even from those errors we can learn if we really want.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 07, 2018, 03:24:49 AM »
Like the penguin watching if his glacier melts in my favorite lullaby:

Thwaites is continuing to break up.  I noticed this roller pretty far in. Anyone seen recent grounding line info?

As I understand it, this year is supposed to be cooler on average after the recent El Nino, but what I'm experiencing feels like we've crossed over into a new normal.

Kevin Trenberth mentioned a possible step up in spring 2014, before the last El Nino. At the end of this interview:

The next one is brewing but no real signs of atmospheric coupling yet, so maybe next year. Doesn't matter much when it comes. What matters is what we are doing. Which is not much.  :(

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 05, 2018, 01:16:36 AM »
West Pacific Tropical Storm ’Maria’ Forms Near Guam; Why This Name is Still Being Used

The Hurricane Maria that caused catastrophic damage in Puerto Rico had its name retired earlier this year due to the amount and severity of damage on the U.S. island territory.

But that name only got retired in a very small part of the world – just in the Atlantic Ocean. There are 12 other basins in the world that can have the same names.  Even 2017's catastrophic Maria did not end up causing a global retirement for the name.

Usually, names vary quite a bit in different parts of the world due to language and preference differences, but the western Pacific is usually a hodgepodge of names. This is because of how names are chosen in that basin. ...

The rest / Re: Russia, Russia, Russia
« on: July 04, 2018, 05:21:13 AM »
New Senate Intelligence Committee report backs up the intel community's findings on Russian election meddling

"The Senate Intelligence Committee on Tuesday released a bipartisan report about the US intelligence community's January 2017 assessment of Russia's election meddling.
The committee found that the assessment was a "sound intelligence product" and that the conclusions were "reached in a professional and transparent manner."

"The senators found that the Kremlin directed Russia's meddling, interfering specifically to hurt Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, and help Trump, the Republican nominee. The document did not draw any conclusions about whether Russia's campaign was successful.

In a press release Tuesday, the panel added that the ICA's conclusions were "well supported and the tradecraft was strong."

"The Committee has spent the last 16 months reviewing the sources, tradecraft, and analytic work underpinning the Intelligence Community Assessment and sees no reason to dispute the conclusions," Sen. Richard Burr, the Republican chairman of the committee, said in a statement.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: July 03, 2018, 09:07:16 AM »
June 24, 2018. at Cassandra's Legacy Ugo starts with: "Anote's Ark is a film by Matthieu Rytz describing the plight of the Kiribati islands, threatened by the rising sea level."

Thanks, downloading that one, into half of it right now.
Those auto generated English subtitles are As Intelligent as a lobotomized retarded cockroach and I found it easier to follow the Dutch ones.

Got stuck on this one as well:

Back to Anote's Ark...

Edit; Two of the ending sentences:
De nieuwe regering is bezig om vrijwel het hele klimaatbeleid van Anote terug te draaien.
Volgens recente wetenschappelijke berekeningen zal Kiribati nog deze eeuw door de zee worden verzwolgen.

2ndEdit; adding perspective.

Re Chicago temperatures: Before 1980, official temperatures were recorded at Midway, since 1980 at O'Hare. O'Hare is generally somewhat cooler than Midway, so pre-1980 and post-1980 temperature statistics comparisons have little value without siting adjustments.

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: July 01, 2018, 07:52:18 AM »
Enough is enough :

This nation is build on immigrants.
How dare you, Trump, to deport immigrants without a hearing,
How dare you, Trump, to separate children from their parents,
and there are thousands of children without parents, still in limbo even after your executive order.
How dare you, Trump, to close our borders while even your great great grandfather Drumpf came here to seek a better life. America accepted him without any paperwork.
How dare you send people back who seek relief from abuse and injustice abroad.
That's not what America stands for.
We are a nation of immigrants, who strive to make a better world.
We are a nation of immigrants, who are compassionate, and understanding the struggle of others who come here to seek a better life.
We are better than Trump.

The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: June 30, 2018, 11:42:52 PM »
Good heavens. Well I never....

What is the loudest thing in the sea?

The sound of a melting glacier, says oceanographer Oskar Glowacki of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California at San Diego. When a glacier meets the sea, it sounds like a billion bubbles bursting all at once, creating a white noise that is very different from the sound of an individual melting iceberg—whose bubbles typically number only in the thousands, allowing people to hear more distinct, individualized popping sounds.

It may not seem like much at first on paper, but when the raw data from months of field recordings in a fjord in Norway is compiled into statistics and run through an algorithm, that is enough for researchers to tell the difference between a melting glacier and a melting iceberg, and even track an individual iceberg as it travels. And the technique can be used to estimate the speed at which glaciers and icebergs are melting underwater, right at that critical point where the ice meets the sea. Scientists can also use this budding field of “cryoacoustics” to determine, by sound alone, the volume of a chunk of ice as it calves from a glacier and crashes into the ocean, say Glowacki and his colleagues Grant Deane and Mateusz Moskalik.

ps: From the same website.
The Doomsday Clock - It is now two minutes to midnight

I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

Sorry, pressed post too soon:

Wow so much either a lack of appreciation of the conditions in the past or lack of empathy. How much of each I don't know - you decide. How to respond depends on what you take as "times gone by" (Time isn't split into two parts, the now and a homogeneous past ), what is meant by "we" and what is meant by "coped" 

1) Well no, on average, people wouldn't have had to cope with 90-degree temperatures so often. And on average the humidity wouldn't have been so high. Most importantly they wouldn't have had to suffer high temperatures for so long - which is the big killer - and they wouldn't have had to cope with such high temperatures at night which means there is little recovery period. 

2) A lot depends on how far you go back. For this topic it is fair to take pre-industrialisation as one time period. Here people had more flexibility in work so if it was too hot they could move or do something else or do nothing.  In southern Europe they still have siestas although they are less common and shorter than previously. Stupidly, Anglo-Saxons have migrated to warm environments e.g. southern USA but not picked up this culture. Also buildings/caves etc. were cooler: Remember warmer in cold usually means cooler in heat so best location for most extremes. Thick stone walls and small windows tends to be cool.  We could design our buildings that way but it would most likely be a lot more expensive - are you willing to pay the price - both economically and aesthetically? Maybe we won't have a choice.

3)  Post-industrialisation: Well, either you succumbed to the heat, in which case they literally stepped over your lifeless body and got somebody else keen for the work. I'd like to think we place a higher value on human life now. Or you grinned and bore it - but the stress placed on the body (along with all the other stresses) meant you were lucky to make it to 50.
Even in recent  western history, in many ways it was easier to cope. A short commute walking or cycling to work. Large, cool offices - typewriters don't generate much heat. In the heat of the day, many streets would be deserted - everybody would either be at work, school or at home. Now the movement is constant, sitting in traffic jams delivering packages, take-aways etc. usually on a tight deadline and no chance for a break. 

4) of course it depends who is meant by the "we". In the past, if you were the upper-middle or higher classes then of course you could stand the heat. It's easy if you don't have to do anything or there is a servant there constantly waving a fan or providing cool drinks. And in summer they generally moved to cooler climes e.g. the Raj in India going to the foothills of the Himalayas and Russian court going to St Petersburg.  Commonly this is where we get our history from so of course, stress from heat isn't mentioned much.   

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