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Messages - Patrice

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 17, 2019, 07:08:14 PM »
NSIDC Have done a mid-month analysis up to Aug 1 - http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

They are plumping for second lowest - using 12 previous years remaining ice loss.

That was my methodology that belonged to me! Gerontocrat claimed to his lawyer (who said - too bad, suck it up!).

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 11, 2019, 03:53:40 PM »
By special request here is the dispersion graph with 2007 added.
Compaction increases.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 10, 2019, 04:07:22 PM »
This end of season is getting quite strange.

Extent loss remains strong.
Area loss very weak.
so Dispersion is reduced, i.e. compaction is increased,

and the remaining ice congregates North of 80 in the CAB?

(while the ESS sea ice disintegrates at the fastest rate since 2007)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2019, 07:02:17 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  7,953,297 km2(July 9, 2019)

4 century breaks in a row is serious melting. If it looks like a cliff, then it is a cliff.
One more daily loss like that and time to reach for the hyperbolic dictionary.

- Extent is lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 182 k, 90 k more than the average loss on this day of 92 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 6,318 k, 453 k (7.7%) greater than the average of 5,865 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 59.4% of the melting season done, with 66 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.94 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.

The first 9 days in July now certainly greatly above  average area loss.

Other Stuff
Weather
GFS over the next 7 days showing temperature anomalies falling from +1.7 to +0.2 degrees celsius.
- over the Arctic Ocean itself temperatures a bit above average,
- the CAA & Baffin Bay mostly warm,
- Western Canada stays mostly cool.
- Alaska and Eastern Siberian really warm,
- Central Siberia and Western Siberia mostly cool.

Area Loss Outlook
We are now in the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July and then very gradually declines. Extent loss this month well above average. Immediate weather outlook suggests a cooling of the Arctic

On every measure (JAXA extent, NSIDC daily and 5 day area and extent, and volume), 2019 is now lowest in the satellite record.

To end the season on a record low, remaining extent loss must be more than 20 % above the previous 10 years' average.
For a BOE,  remaining extent loss must be more than 70 % above the previous 10 years' average.

The June volume data persuaded me to drop my minimum guesstimate to below 4 million km2 from exactly 4 million km2. This assumes remaining extent loss will continue at at least at average.
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