Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Brigantine

Pages: [1]
2
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: October 02, 2019, 01:32:32 AM »
Hope all the calculations are ok.
(Let me know if there is a correction to make ;) )

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: September 27, 2019, 06:28:55 AM »
How are things looking for the September average now with just a few days to go? Which bin is it heading for?
4.25 - 4.50 M km2.
I will calculate the average tomorrow (America's time).
The correct bins are: 4.00 - 4.50 & 4.25 - 4.75 M km2.

Edit:
I already did it. Average daily (not 5-day trailing) September 1st-26th: 4.2704 M km2. At this date, 2019 is even with 2007.
The last daily value (Sept 26th): 4.416 M km2.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 19, 2019, 03:07:04 AM »
I'd like to hear if any of you has a thought about relative volatility of these metrics. Has anyone measured whether one is more jagged than the other? Would that mean anything? Thanks.

The **average daily change of one-day extent in 2019 is 17.45 k per day
The **average daily change of five-day extent in 2019 is 16.31 k per day

So the 5 day average is merely 7% less than the one day. That was a surprise.

** N.B. -ve daily changes concerted to absolute (+ve) values.

So why do I use 5-day values? Because that is what NSIDC provides for regional seas - where perhaps volatility is more significant. Also 5-day average helps to reduce impact of artifacts as extensively examined in the melting thread.

Thats not a measure of jaggedness, unless you take the seasonal cycle out of the data first. Its telling you something about the seasonal cycle instead, so you get pretty much the same result from both datasets.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 18, 2019, 09:54:31 AM »
... something I don't really get.

Suggest asking about it in the Stupid Questions thread, as plenty here do get it.


Short answer:

1) Salinity is more important than temperature in determining water density; and

2) The Arctic Ocean at its surface is less saline than the other oceans.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 17, 2019, 05:43:09 AM »
September 16th, 2019:
     3,991,187 km2, a drop of -14,849 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S.: 2019 has broken the less than 4M km2 marker.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 11, 2019, 03:22:28 PM »
A cautionary tale

There is great excitement over the area losses in the ESS, which are very large indeed.

So I had a look to see if ESS area was lowest in the satellite record. It is not.
So I had a look to see in which year on this day was area lowest.

The answer?1990, 29 years ago.

So I added 1990 to the graph (see below). If you were a looking at it in 1990 at this , time you might say - "Well that's the end of Arctic Sea Ice".

But it took at least another 15 years for an average minimum to catch up with 1990, and as at 10th July 2019 1990 remains the lowest area for that date and for many days before and for a few days after.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2019, 07:21:51 AM »
OK, so JAXA daily extent and the other metrics have July 7 as the lowest in the satellite record.

But this does not make the 365 day average the lowest in the satellite record. That still belongs to around March 2017, after the continuously low extent in 2016. If 2019 continues on its current path, the 365 day average could move into record low territory in December of this year or early in 2020.

Now that will really be a record for the record books.

9
The Rutgers NH snow cover extent for June 2019 was 5.94 million km2.

This represents a negative departure of -3.48 million, just slightly less than 2016's large departure of -3.84 million.

Extent was below normal in practically all geographic areas.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:25:06 AM »
When comparing this year with 2012, keep in mind that the areas where 2012 had much more ice are Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS, all of which melted completely.

11
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: June 29, 2019, 10:32:07 PM »
The obvious problem is that there were zero supervolcanoes going off during MWP1A, where ice melt was huge. Note the term supervolcanes. There are very few of these. By contrast there are many regular volcanoes and they go off all the time.

Until a theory that predicts supervolcano eruptions during rapid deglaciation can explain why MWP1A had none i will not take it seriously. Or for that matter, why no supervolcanoes during the final stage of Eemian, 120Kyr ago ?

As regards the paper by Allen, it is comically bad. He fits exponential trends to data that barely show a linear trend to start with. As might be expected the confidence measures are horribly low. So it is no surprise that we see that it has garnered exactly zero citations.

Here is a much better paper on ice melt and icequakes by Roosli et al., doi: 10.3189/2014JoG13J210 and open access. Needless to say, no supervolcanoes predicted.

sidd

12
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: June 29, 2019, 03:20:30 PM »
I think this quote means that people emit each year more CO2 than what a supereruption does (and super eruptions don't occur every year - they occur about once every 100,000 years).

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/vsc/file_mngr/file-154/Gerlach-2011-EOS_AGU.pdf

Quote
Supereruptions are extremely rare, with recurrence intervals of 100,000–200,000 years; none have occurred historically, the most recent examples being Indonesia’s Toba volcano, which erupted 74,000 years ago, and the United States’ Yellowstone caldera, which erupted 2 million years ago. Interestingly, these calculations strongly suggest that present-day annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions may exceed the CO2 output of one or more supereruptions every year.

Another thing is if the melting of glaciers destabilizes tectonic plates, and every year we will have a supereruptions.

13
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: June 29, 2019, 10:19:23 AM »
Re: the glaciers collapse faster than in any other period of the geological history of the Earth

The geological history of earth is quite long, so a citation might be nice.

We dont really have that much ice right now. We have had snowball earth before, but there is little data on deglaciation after.

But more recently we have had the last deglaciation and the Eemian and Wisconsinian.  We have had a meter every twenty year for five hundred years of SLR from ice melt  in last deglaciation, look at MWP1A. We see no evidence of supervolcanoes popping every year then.

So colour me unconvinced.

sidd


14
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: June 29, 2019, 09:16:39 AM »
Re: every year we will have a supereruptions.

Wait, what ?  This is apocalypse prediction at it's finest. Every year ? How many supervolcanoes do you think exist on earth ? And how often are you suggesting they go off ?

I look forward to reading your papers in the geology journals.

sidd

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 27, 2019, 12:36:59 AM »
itp103-105 are ok. Look back through the dat files >1kb
itp110  has high drift speed today, recent data here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg208455.html#msg208455 and older analysis here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg205032.html#msg205032
itp107 has been struggling for a while
hoping that itp89 will give new drift locations when the melt comes....

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 26, 2019, 02:30:14 PM »
Bear in mind AMSR2 volume does not measure volume... it is just an unreliable number.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 26, 2019, 11:32:46 AM »
UH AMSR2 data is showing more high latitude sea ice extent and area in the arctic basin, than the highest melt years.


a reminder of this astute point that Oren made in the melting season thread:

CAB area at this time of year is a proxy for the area north of the Barents and the Fram, as the rest of the CAB is still mostly 100% sea ice until the beginning of July. As this year the transpolar drift is back with a vengeance, it is no surprise that CAB area is staying on the high side. As the Chukchi + Beaufort deteriorate, it is expected that the CAB will be hit first by loss of ice from its Pacific side.


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2019, 02:34:16 PM »
NSIDC Data as at 24 June 2019 (5 day trailing average)

Graphs attached look at Tealight's "High Arctic" - the 7 seas - Kara, Laptev, ESS, Chukchi, Beaufort, CAA, and the 3.2. million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea/Basin.

Area shows 2019 maintaining its position between 2012 and 2016.
Extent shows 2019 in pole position.

The result is concentration (area divided by extent) tends to stay up, against the normal trend for concentration to go down as the season progresses. The last 2 days of very high area loss have reversed this a tad.

Tealight's High Arctic Cumulative AWP anomaly at the moment also shows steady progress to a 2nd highest value 'twixt 2012 and 2016.
_____________________________________________________________________
Overall the NSIDC data suggests progress towards a lowish minimum in September. My prediction that belongs to me of a 4 million km2 JAXA daily minimum , (not a km2 more, not a km2 less,) is still intact (so far).

PIOMAS June data could kick the whole thing into touch.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: June 18, 2019, 11:57:45 PM »
The number of beige pixels for 2019 has been slightly below 2012 in the last 3 days.  But it may also be interesting to have a look at the other colors in the SMOS images.  Note that 2019 currently has relatively many of the purple/violet/red/orange-ish pixels, especially when compared to 2012.  To quantify this, I run a pixel-counting algorithm for several color segments of the SMOS color legend, for the date 17 June, see the bottom chart below (blue pixels are ignored, and I made some heuristic corrections for data gaps for the years 2010 and 2011).






20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2019, 06:11:26 PM »
I like this thread very much and it is the first thread I open when I come home from work.
Bookkeeping is a good thing, data and statistics are necessary and welcome.
And, of course, if extent increases unexpectedly for several days a new ice age is not just around the corner!

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2019, 04:58:42 PM »
NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

do you just repeat numbers that we can see ourselves or do you want to tell us something with it ? if you want to tell us something, then say it so we can check and/or oppose false assumptions. if you only want to make disconnected buzz-word-statements or stating the obvious, i sooner or later have to see to avoid seeing it ;)

So there is Rich saying this thread is only for book-keeping,
and
there is magnamentis saying as we can see it ourselves why post the numbers.

Some days I get a bit hacked off.

But there are a lot of people on this forum who don't have access to the numbers. So, to quote Dorothy Parker:-

Resumé

Razors pain you;
Rivers are damp;
Acids stain you;
And drugs cause cramp.
Guns aren’t lawful;
Nooses give;
Gas smells awful;
You might as well live.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 16, 2019, 09:26:27 AM »
From a newspaper that changed its mind about AGW not very long ago (but is still pretty vile) a stunning set of photos and drone footage.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7099091/Rodger-Price-films-stunning-blue-Iceberg-melt-pond-coast-Bacon-Cove-Newfoundland.html


23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2019, 09:04:29 AM »
Despite the headline extent numbers being what they are, anyone who becomes complacent at this stage is not looking at the whole picture. Look at the ice that is supposed to survive the melting season, the one in the inner basin. Look at its current area.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 14, 2019, 02:40:03 PM »
Another daily drop of 116K in NSIDC area, and as extent marks another 58K increase, compactness goes down by another percentage point:

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 14, 2019, 12:11:11 PM »
noctilucent cloud

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2019, 02:57:02 AM »
How about if everyone stays on topic and talks about 2019 sea ice area and extent data? If you think this comment is directed at you, it probably is.

<Exactly! N.>

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 06:54:38 PM »
Jaxa: 3.75-4.25, Medium
NSIDC 4.0 - 4.5, Medium

I was intending to run this again, but got distracted by a friend's death just before the polls went up (I have reached the age where such things can be expected to happen). Thanks for setting it rolling Paddy.

The one change I was intending to make was to ask for entries in subsequent months to quote entries from the previous month(s) but that's not relevant this month anyway.

28
Arctic sea ice / September predictions challenge 2019
« on: June 09, 2019, 10:06:22 AM »
And it's back! Many thanks to Richard Rathbone for setting this up last year. Rules copied over from last year's thread:

Quote
This is a challenge which accumulates scores across all the monthly polls on September sea ice to come up with an overall rating of how good the predictions made are. In addition to making a prediction, entrants are required to rate their confidence in that prediction. The higher the confidence, the narrower the margin of error you are allowed, but the higher score you get if the September ice ends up where you predicted it (and the bigger penalty you take if you miss).

Currently included polls are: JAXA daily minimum area, NSIDC September average.
Other polls may be added during the course of the season if their structure fits this challenge.

Points are scored as follows:
Very High Confidence: 10 points if you pick the correct bin, -10 points for all other bins.
High Confidence: 6 points for the correct bin, 2 points if one bin out, -2 points if two bins out, -6 points for all other bins
Medium Confidence: 4 points for the correct bin, 2 points if one bin out, 1 point if two bins out, -1 if three bins out, -2 if four bins out, -4 points for all other bins
Low Confidence: 2 points for the correct bin, 1 point if within 3 bins, -1 point if 4-6 bins out, -2 points for all other bins
Very Low Confidence: 1 point if in the correct bin, no score (or penalty) for any other bin.

Note on portmanteau and end of range bins: these are excluded from the challenge, you may either select a bin within the portmanteau range, or extend the range beyond the poll endpoint for your challenge entry. If the September values fall out of the normal range, scores will be assessed by extending the bin structure. e.g. an end result of 5.9 counts as two bins out for a 5-5.5 entry.

To enter, post guess and confidence in this thread before the closing date of the poll. Editing a post to change the prediction before the closing date is allowed, editing for any reason after the closing date for a poll will result in disqualification from the challenge.

List of entries

Paddy

June
JAXA:  3.75 - 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.25 - 4.75, medium

Oren

June
JAXA: 3.5 - 4, medium
NSIDC: 4 - 4.5, medium

b_lumencraft

June
JAXA: 3.5 - 4, high
NSIDC: 3.75 - 4.25, high

Stephan

June
JAXA: 3.75 - 4.25, high
NSIDC:  4 - 4.5, high

jdallen

June
JAXA: 3.75 - 4.25, high
NSIDC: 4 - 4.5, high

Neven

June

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium


Juan C. García

June

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, médium
NSIDC: 3.75 to 4.25, médium

Richard Rathbone

June

Jaxa: 3.75-4.25, Medium
NSIDC 4.0 - 4.5, Medium

Sterks

June

Jaxa: 3.75-4.25, Medium
NSIDC 4.0 - 4.5, Medium

Aluminium

June

JAXA: 3.5-4.0 high.
NSIDC: 4.0-4.5 medium.

Brigantine

June

JAXA 3.75 - 4.25 medium
NSIDC 4.25 - 4.75 medium

slow wing

June

JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, medium
NSIDC: 4.00 to 4.50, medium

jplotinus

June

JAXA: 4.25-4.75, low
NSIDC: 4.50-5.00, low

Gerontocrat

June

JAXA: 3.75 to 4.25, High
NSIDC: 4.00 to 4.50, High

Steven

June

JAXA: 3.5 to 4.0, medium
NSIDC: 4.0 to 4.5, medium

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 08, 2019, 03:47:21 PM »
Here are the "area divided by extent" graphs for the High Arctic seas only and for all seas.
The story is much the same for both graphs.
Note how much more compact the High Arctic seas are than the average for all seas.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 03:13:37 PM »
Could dry air and sustained wind in anticyclonic but dynamic situations lead to more ice sublimation and less ordinary melt ?
I know it in mediterranean mountain. Snow can desappear without even giving water in those situations.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 09:34:27 AM »
Imo it's premature to be surprised about the small fraction of ice surface showing melt ponds.

Attached is a gif of SMOS microwave images for each year from 2010 through 2019.

Specifically, the images are yyyy0607_hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png, where yyyy is the year, obtained from https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/.

These images are sensitive to melt ponds.
IGNORE THE COLOR LEGEND'S NUMERICAL SCALE & LABEL (the color order progression should be valid though) - DURING THE MELT SEASON THESE ARE NOT LEGITIMATE THICKNESS MEASUREMENTS. Instead, my understanding is that any color other than beige indicates ice that is:
a) thin, ~<50 cm; &/or
b) has concentration well below 100%; &/or
c) has surface liquid water.
In particular, colours other than beige in the ice pack interior are likely to indicate the presence of surface water.

& it is seen that only 4 of the 10 years have extensive melt ponding in the Arctic Basin on 7 June: 2012, 15, 16, and 18.

All of 2010, 11, 13, 14, 17, and now 2019, don't have extensive melt ponding by 7 June.

So the comparisons above with 2012 are not particularly surprising, given that 2012 is one of the 4 years in the data record that has extensive melt ponding on 7 June, while 5 of the 9 previous years on record are similar to 2019 in not displaying extensive melt ponds by 7 June.


P.S. Given the weather forecast, I expect SMOS to show extensive melt ponding, especially on the Russian side, within the next few days.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 06:03:05 AM »
There was a comment in the Nares thread about how much snow appears to top the floes moving through the strait.  I wonder if one component of "less apparent melt ponding" is thicker snow cover.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 08, 2019, 05:57:16 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 7th, 2019:
     10,386,229 km2, a drop of -50,768 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 11:44:51 PM »
Not unimportant: Northern Hemisphere snow cover almost lowest on record.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 11:23:34 PM »
Here is almost all of the near real-time evidence we have for melting momentum. I could also post SMOS maps, or even Uni Bremen SIC maps, but that's just too much work.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 07, 2019, 05:23:41 PM »
Summary: despite record strong high pressure dominance in the Arctic and abundance of blue skies from late April to first week of June (that’s like 50 days) , record SATs as well, surface melting shows a delay of at least 1 week wrt 2012 or even 2016.
So something is missing from the “lots of insolation” formula to really get the surface melting season going.

Indeed, and as said before, I think it may have to do with melt onset (which starts earlier under cloudy, moist conditions). Here's that paper I referred to, called Melt onset over Arctic sea ice controlled by atmospheric moisture transport: 2016 Mortin et al. I still haven't looked at it properly, to see whether 2010 and 2012 were extra early.

But here's what it's about:

Quote
The timing of melt onset affects the surface energy uptake throughout the melt season. Yet the processes triggering melt and causing its large interannual variability are not well understood. Here we show that melt onset over Arctic sea ice is initiated by positive anomalies of water vapor, clouds, and air temperatures that increase the downwelling longwave radiation (LWD) to the surface. The earlier melt onset occurs; the stronger are these anomalies. Downwelling shortwave radiation (SWD) is smaller than usual at melt onset, indicating that melt is not triggered by SWD. When melt occurs early, an anomalously opaque atmosphere with positive LWD anomalies preconditions the surface for weeks preceding melt. In contrast, when melt begins late, clearer than usual conditions are evident prior to melt. Hence, atmospheric processes are imperative for melt onset. It is also found that spring LWD increased during recent decades, consistent with trends toward an earlier melt onset.

Here's a recent paper on how radar satellite images can be used to monitor melt onset, 2019 Howell et al. From the conclusion:

Quote
Given that the timing of melt onset influences the end of summer sea ice extent in the Arctic (Perovich et al., 2007) and that positive trends in downwelling longwave radiation are linked to positive melt onset trends across the Arctic (Mortin et al., 2016), continuing to provide melt onset estimates is important for understanding the response of sea ice to a warming Arctic.

(...)

In this study, we have shown excellent potential for the use of multi-sensor backscatter from SAR to provide high quality melt onset information over Arctic sea ice which would be of significant value to data assimilation systems. In anticipation of the availability of data from even more SAR satellites with the launch of the RADARSAT Constellation Mission, the multi-sensor γCo approach presented here may offer the most robust approach to estimate the timing of melt onset over sea ice across the Arctic.

Sorry, for the slightly off-topic, but given that May was so sunny and there was thus less atmospheric moisture transport, this could possibly explain why 2019 is lagging when it comes to melt ponding. Because the ice wasn't pre-preconditioned as much as in other years.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 06, 2019, 03:55:11 PM »
The St Lawrence. This little sea ignores AGW, variations in weather, ocean currents, et al and after dithering around since the middle of April, finally gives up the last of its sea ice (as near as dammit) on the same day every year - or is it NSIDC changing the mask?
A quick look at the "real" situation in St. Lawrence, as measured by UH AMSR2, shows no ice since early April. NSIDC have big problems with coastal and spurious ice, and change their mask every 1st of the month to get rid of some of the problematic data.

38
I should have voted 4-4.5 but went one lower.
A lot depends on the date of refreeze, 2007 was very late and 2016 very early, hence their 0.25 difference.

39
Welcome back Brigantine... lots to catch up.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 06, 2019, 04:40:46 AM »
Siberian coastal snow mostly melted out in the last couple of weeks.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: June 05, 2019, 05:06:07 PM »
The 2019 melt season is now well underway.  Like last year, I run a pixel counting algorithm on the SMOS images. 

In summer SMOS is sensitive to surface melting.  The beige pixels in the SMOS images would correspond to sea ice with a dry surface (without melt ponds).  During June, the number of beige pixels in the images tends to decrease fast as surface melting becomes more widespread in the Arctic Ocean.

Based on this metric, surface melting in 2019 has been mediocre in the last few weeks (slightly weaker than the 2010s average).  But it's still early in the season and a lot can happen.



https://www.dropbox.com/s/fl2xs6aeop3ioen/SMOS_beige_pixels.png

To keep this graph up-to-date, I uploaded it on dropbox.com and it will be updated every day with the latest data.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 03:36:27 PM »
HAH! Caught in the act!

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 08:19:52 AM »
Slater's latest shows a XXX-rated "Pole Hole" coming to a planet near you by July 24th.



For some reason the image isn't updating properly ^, if it isn't showing 7/24, click here for the exclusive XXX-rated content.

http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/

It seems strange to me that this image is showing a high percentage chance that the little ice arm extending on the siberian coast towards Chukchi will still be there a month and a half from now. It seems in awful shape already when inspecting on worldview. The little piece attaching to the alaskan coast is likely to still be there too, according to the image. I find that very hard to believe.

Slater's map does NOT show the expected sea ice situation on the stated date - it shows some version of the current (today's) sea ice situation. The only data point on there corresponding to 50 days out is the prediction of 7.1M sq. km.

For reference, attached is the NSIDC concentration map for June 3rd, 2019, that matches up almost perfectly with Slater's map.


Also attached is a map from JAXA for July 21, 2012, where the sea ice extent was 7.1M sq km (exactly matching Slater's prediction for July 24, 2019). Just with a quick glance, you can see that to have 7.1M, the Hudson, Baffin and Russian coasts would have to be ice free


I somehow still haven't figured out how to embed pictures into the body of messages but I hope that helps!

*Edit - WOOT! Figured out how to embed the pics!

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 05, 2019, 01:17:46 AM »
June 4 Channel 3-6-7.  Significant amount of red showing in Laptev area.  I'd say 2012, 2015 and 2016 all have more red (Arctic wide) as at June 4 than 2019.  Hard to be sure about 2012 due to cloud cover, but given the events of that year I'm more bullish guessing on red below the clouds for that year.  Red reflects surface melting.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 04, 2019, 11:02:18 PM »
We'll see what that does to ice colour, especially on the Siberian side.

Here's the (false) colour of the Laptev Sea ice today:

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 04, 2019, 09:32:58 PM »
DMI temperature north of 80N reached zero.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 04, 2019, 03:22:08 PM »
If you opt for a transplant, do you have plans for the old brain? Asking for a friend.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 16, 2019, 04:30:33 AM »
 Nice view of the ice off Newfoundland.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 03, 2019, 03:07:03 PM »
Polar bears sparring while a wolf walks by


50
The rest / Re: Today I learned:
« on: March 24, 2019, 10:46:52 AM »
TIL about Candle Ice.

Quote
Candle ice is a form of rotten ice that develops in columns perpendicular to the surface of a lake. It makes a clinking sound when the "candles" are broken apart and floating in the water, bumping up against each other.
Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candle_ice


Pages: [1]