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Messages - Aluminium

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2020, 07:53:41 AM »
Ok, just for the record, there was some talk upthread about stronger than usual winds in the Arctic. I asked about whether these winds should cool down the Arctic faster. It may be a stupid question, but when I have a hot cup of tea and blow it continuously, it cools down faster than if it stays calm.
But maybe the Arctic ain't my cup of tea...

2
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 10, 2020, 03:59:30 AM »
Okay I'll humor you, although I doubt anybody on this forum does not have an idea of what the alt-right is and what alt-right means.

Alt-Right --- term coined by Paul Gottfried in 2008 after a paper published entitled The Decline and Rise of the Alternative Right. The term has been widely popularized and turbocharged by noted white supremacist Richard Spencer (seen here being punched in the face because ya know, nazis gonna nazi).

Admittedly, the term is "ill-defined" but generally refers to a the loose collective of groups which espouse and support ideas of white nationalism, white supremacism, white separatism, anti-immigration, pro-racism, anti-zionism and anti-semitism, holocaust denial, antifeminism, trans-phobia, homophobia, and islamophobia. Wow not a great list to be attached to. Groups using the self-appointed alt-right label are generally characterized as HATE GROUPS.

So now we know something of what the alt-right is, and some of what it believes. This is not a comprehensive list but I am happy to provide further studies if you or anybody else desires.

Violence --- Does the alt-right, by definition, involve violence. In my view American Conservatism is violence. The alt-right is a step further and so has to be more violent. Notably, my definition of violence may be different than yours.

The trajectory of the alt-right is to gently guide its followers further and further down the rabbit hole, swallowing red pill after red pill. With the majority of members being white, cis-het, males, the red pills swallowed tend to be about jewish conspiracies, holocaust denial, downplaying of slavery and the crusades, that feminism is about crushing men rather than elevating women to where men currently stand, sandy-hook truthers, reverse racism, economic precarity being caused by immigrants, and so on.

Many, I am sure, are aware that having a nebulous "other" to unite against is a compelling rallying cry for people. The alt-right provides many such "others" to rally against. The alt-right also, curiously, utilizes the fascist rhetoric that the nebulous other is simultaneously all-powerful and weak/unfit/sub-human (examples include Mexicans are coming to take our jobs, but Mexicans are also lazy; Jewish people control essentially all major corporations and governments in the world, but are also sub-human. Take your pick, there are many options.)

With the "other" provided, hatred abounds. Take 5 minutes to go browse /pol/ on 4chan, or save yourself the pain and trust me. Hatred and fear lead to violence. An excellent example of this is that hate crimes against Asian-Americans have been on the rise during the covid19 pandemic -- so much so that scientists have published journal articles about it). So once again, with an "other" provided (and that "other" including but not limited to women, LGBTQ+, immigrants, muslims, jewish people), fear and hatred flow. Young, white, cis-het men are told they are valuable for being white and cis-het. They are left to froth in their own anger. Violence follows: there has been an explosion of alt-right hate groups as tracked by the Southern Poverty Law Center -- 55% increase in white nationalist hate groups since 2017 and 43% increase in anti-LGBTQ+ hate groups in 2019 alone. And according to the SPLC hate crimes reached a 5 year high in 2015 as Trump marched towards the White House. According to Justice.gov hate crimes in 2017 reached numbers not seen since 2008, 2018 down slightly from 2017 and 2019 numbers not out yet. Another fun fact: for years provided by justice.gov, the year with the highest hate crime rate was 2001. Hmm, I wonder what happened that year for it to see such a spike?

The alt-right is a breeding ground for "lone wolves". If a person is unable to escape from the clutches of the alt-right there are generally 3 outcomes: nihilism/the black pill, becoming a "lone wolf", or joining a "militia" group or other hate group whose violence that person finds tolerable (i.e. "I find actually harming people to be too much for me, but I don't mind screaming racial slurs at hispanic American citizens and telling them to go back to their country.")

Edit: I would also like to add that among those who commit "lone wolf" type violence, many evoke reverence for the memes, hand signals, gestures, hashtags, and common talking points/phrases that the alt-right traffic in. We know that the alt-right radicalized him, the issue becomes did the alt-right tell him to do that. And generally the answer is no. There was no single directive issued by the alt-right to go out and shoot people. I would argue this is more plausible deniability on the part of alt-right leaders. They have clearly been enticing young men towards violence. But stopping short of saying lets go murder people, they cannot be charged with anything.

And another caveat: you can find videos of alt-right leaders talking on their podcasts/radio shows actually advocating for murder.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2020, 07:18:06 PM »
Playing around with some more data viz stuff.
So below is the September sea ice extent persistence. Basically, it's like stacking the average September sea ice extent for every year from 1979 to 2020 on top of each other.
Where sea ice is present in every year, the pixel value is 42 (white in the image).
Where it's present in 20 of the years, it gets a pixel values of 20 (light green)
Where it was only present in one year, it gets a value of 1 (dark orange)
And everything in between!

I'm open to suggestions on how best to display this data. I plan on doing the same for all other months too

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 21, 2020, 02:31:56 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 2,718,365 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 2,718,365    km2      
-554,510    km2   <   2010's average.
-487,363    km2   <   2019
-1,417,217    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    52    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    45    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    40    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 52 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average gain of 23 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 555 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,417 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 95 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 487 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 359 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 20-Sep-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,812,841 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 22 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average gain of 15k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 730 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,730 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 614 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 398 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 356 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2020, 04:40:34 PM »
NSIDC daily extent


2020-09-01  4.004
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7
2020-09-09  3.777      +7
2020-09-10  3.763    −14
2020-09-11  3.740    −23
2020-09-12  3.745      +5
2020-09-13  3.709    −36
2020-09-14  3.745    +36
2020-09-15  3.743      −2

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: September 12, 2020, 09:03:28 PM »
And here is the current situation.....

but the dog doesn't give a damn.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 09, 2020, 03:54:23 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −7

7-day average:  (3770 − 4004) / 7  =  −33
14-day average: (3770 − 4429) / 14  =  −47

2020-08-25  4.429
2020-08-26  4.427      −2
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822        0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34
2020-09-08  3.770      −7

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 08, 2020, 06:43:55 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

Today's 1-day change was −34

7-day average:  (3777 − 4200) / 7  =  −60
14-day average: (3777 − 4492) / 14  =  −51

2020-08-24  4.492
2020-08-25  4.429    −63
2020-08-26  4.427      −2
2020-08-27  4.363    −64
2020-08-28  4.448    +85
2020-08-29  4.365    −83
2020-08-30  4.260  −105
2020-08-31  4.200    −60
2020-09-01  4.004  −196
2020-09-02  4.051    +47
2020-09-03  3.939  −112
2020-09-04  3.822  −117
2020-09-05  3.822         0
2020-09-06  3.811    −11
2020-09-07  3.777    −34

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 03, 2020, 05:31:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 2nd, 2020:
     3,860,699 km2, a drop of -34,299 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record on this date.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: September 02, 2020, 08:46:42 AM »
Suddenly there is a chance of a new record minimum 365 day average this year, except for one thing.

Last year, 2019 stunned me in October. The refreeze was so slow in happening that the 2019 October Monthly average was 700k below the linear trend, and 50k bnelow 2012, i.e. the record low October monthly minimum.

Maybe 2020 will match or come close to that low refreeze. If not, no record low 365 day  minimum this year.


11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 26, 2020, 04:15:05 PM »
Latest projection: none produce a minimum below 2012. The average melt rate would place 2020 at 2nd lowest and the slowest (2017) would result in 3rd lowest. 19/20 produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record.
We are currently 1,089,000 km² above the 2012 minimum. To equal the record, losses would need to average 49,500 km² per day from now until September 16th (2012 minimum date).
The previous record large loss for this period was 31,200 km² per day in 2010.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 25, 2020, 07:39:08 PM »
which I have done, using JAXA extent monthly averages, September & the following March deviations from the linear trend.

The result - zilch. No correlation.
The X-Y graph has similar numbers of data points in all 4 quadrants.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 24, 2020, 06:18:59 PM »
Latest projection.
None of the previous 20 years produce a minimum below 2012. The average melt rate would place 2020 at 2nd lowest, while the slowest melt would result in 5th lowest. 19/20 produce the 2nd lowest minimum on record.
We are currently 1,212,000 km² above the 2012 minimum. To equal the record, extent losses would need to average 50,500 km² per day from now until September 16th (2012 minimum date).
The previous record large loss for this period was 34,500 km² per day in 2008.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 10:20:41 AM »
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1296850200800014336

Quote
Regional sea ice extent rankings around the Arctic basin for August 20, 2020 compared to same date since 1979. Eurasian side and the central Arctic #seaice extent is very low, North America/Greenland less so.


15
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 21, 2020, 04:54:58 PM »
A collage.  I'm in a cone, but no longer near its center.  Hurricane Michael (Cat 5) was much closer.  But this is 5 days out.   

Edit:  The 11 o'clock update has (just named) Laura as a hurricane on Wednesday landfall.  I am just barely inside the cone now.  Both storms are shoved westward ~50 km on day 5 (compared to earlier this morning).

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 14, 2020, 02:29:32 PM »
Arctic sea ice area for Aug 13th,  3,105,480 million km^2. NSIDC Daily Area. Change from yesterday of  111,070 km^2.

Last 5 years average area remaining loss from Aug 13th to September Minimum is around 900,000 km^2.


lowests minimum: 2.241 (2012), 2.477 (2016)
(2019) minimum: 2.960

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 12, 2020, 09:18:21 AM »
August 7-11.

2019.
I just figured out a new trick. I opened your GIF and then clicked on mine forgetting that yours was still open. I didn't know mine would open up in the same pop-up window, and so now I can use the back and forward buttons to switch between our gifs, which makes it easy to see where on the ice the wind will hit.

I want to learn what BFTV is doing with my GIF. That way we don't need to double post. Can you teach me B? I tried it myself yesterday, but my graphics skills need a major update...

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 11, 2020, 04:13:47 PM »
Here's the animation from Freegrass, in combo with sea ice concentration

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 10, 2020, 11:55:54 PM »
Version 2. Getting there...

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 04:29:49 PM »
I made little animations using the NSIDC comparison tool comparing the remainder of the melting seasons 2012 and 2019 against the current state.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 08:12:30 AM »
An update on the side by side comparison. Those apparent concentration drops are looking more real than not.
Slightly higher res version on twitter, for those without data limits: https://twitter.com/Icy_Samuel/status/1289080922617372672

(Large file, click to play)

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2020, 06:39:59 PM »
As, at he moment, extent ice losses are taking a breather, while area ice losses are not, here is   NSIDC Area data analysed as I d JAXA extent data.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  4,106,162 KM2 as at 28-Jul-2020

- Area loss on this day 100k, 47 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 9,260 k, 761 k, 09.0% more than the 10 year average of 8,499 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -315 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  -456 k LESS than 2016
- Extent is  -237 k LESS than 2012
______________________________
On average 83.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 48 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.42 million km2, 0.17 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
________________________________________________________

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 29, 2020, 10:45:07 AM »
I have just looked at the data again, odd things popped up in the pre 2000 era data (including 2000) for certain but nothing like it in the last 20 years so see it how you will, it is a pattern break to me.

Image attached for comparison.  It certainly looks to me like it's the highest it's been, but there are similar excursions above the mean at this time of year in 2016 and 2008, as I think others have mentioned upthread.

Edit: replaced image with version with arrows indicating other excursions

24
Glen, that is pretty straight forward. Just click the 'Attachment and other options' below the input window. There you can choose a file from your computer to upload.

Generally, i would say it should be compressed (i.e. JPEG format).

A good way to compress images is to upload them to a website like lunapic.com. There you can compress/convert to JPEG/scale/crop/etc.

If you have an image that is 500 pixels or below of canvas size, it will be displayed by the forum software as it is. If it's bigger, the forum software would shrink it and only show the full resolution if you click on it.

There is also a posibility to load pictures from an external source. In this case, you copy&paste the image link, select the link, and click the 'Insert Image' button (above the input window).

Hope that answers your question. :)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:30:04 AM »
As an addendum, max temps in various ground stations in the CAA yesterday.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 25, 2020, 08:19:28 PM »
Now the ECMWF has a convincing forecast that agrees well with the GFS of a deep low that is in pretty much the worst possible location for the ice. The ice will be mixed into the ridiculously warm waters on the Siberian side. Now it's looking like this is going to be an historic year for sea ice.

Insane warm air advection from the CAA and hot compressing air downsloping off of Greenland towards the pole and across to Siberia. With strong winds to mix the heat down to the ice.

click to play (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 25, 2020, 05:37:42 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24th, 2020:
     6,042,112 km2, a small drop of -5,029 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2020)
« on: July 19, 2020, 11:48:21 AM »
In 2-3 days we should have another PIOMAS report, thanks to the tireless Wipneus. I looked at mid-July losses of past years in the CAB (days 182 to 197 to match this year
s numbering). Many years managed to lose above 1300 km3 for the period (see table below), but none managed 1400 km3. Will 2020 be the first? Considering the persistent high pressure, clear skies and low albedo, one should expect so. Will it manage 1500 km3? Who knows,
With 2020's CAB volume lagging 562 km3 behind 2019 and 340 km3 behind 2012, this is a major chance to catch up. Otherwise, a new volume record might be very hard to achieve.

2007      -1120
2008      -1224
2009      -1330
2010      -1310
2011      -1365
2012      -1384
2013      -1296
2014        -951
2015      -1355
2016      -1351
2017      -1198
2018      -1209
2019      -1343
The CAB lost 1578 km3 in this period, blowing 2012's previous record of 1384 km3 out of the water.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 01:37:36 PM »
I haven't had any time for sea ice this year, but wow, this season is exceptional. I thought it was worth reminding ourselves where the ice is this year vs. 2012 (first image). Basically, 2020 is slightly ahead north of the Barents and Kara seas, ahead in Chukchi, and far ahead in ESS and Laptev. In the areas that matter, 2012 is only far ahead in Beaufort. Having said that, an extent comparison exaggerates the difference a bit, as there is greater compaction in 2020.

Then, looking at current melt conditions, I looked back at Worldview for the second half of July in 2012, 2016 and 2019. All were dominated by cloudy weather, although 2012 did clear up a few times. 2020 is forecast to stay relatively clear.

Looking at the most recent day in 2012 and 2020 (2nd and 3rd image), the difference is striking. 2012 has slightly more rubble north of Beaufort, and obviously much less ice in Beaufort, but apart from that 2020 looks worse in every way. There is definitely more melt ponding/surface wetness in 2020. Cloud cover speaks for itself.

Qs: Is insolation in the second half of July strong enough to do so much damage to the relatively thick ice in the CAB that some of it will melt out by the end of the season?
Will continued clockwise rotation of the ice push the weak-looking ice in the ESS into the warm Laptev waters? If so, it won't be long of this world. Will some of the Beaufort ice also be pushed into warmer waters?
Will the Atlantic ice edge continue to push north, or will it stagnate just north of Svalbard/Franz Josef?
Is this the big year, or is it just setting us up for next year?

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 16, 2020, 11:24:50 AM »
NSIDC data
Another email from NSIDC . Looks like just a data hiccup with planned maintenance.
With luck normal service resumes this early afternoon  (UK time).

Mind you, I would have thought that the data would be cleaned before making it available on sea-ice-tools.
___________________________________________________
Hi,

I checked with the team, and they reminded me that the data in that spreadsheet is NRT (near real time), so as things are processed and quality checked and updated (particularly if we've had downtime at any point or difficulties in sea ice processing overnight) the data will change. Basically, those updates are a result of quality checking and updating. This recent occurrence, and at least one of the other dates you mentioned, happened during planned maintenance downtime, and were probably a result of the processing and quality checks catching up.

The archived data is more statics, as it has already been quality checked and updated if necessary.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives

Best,
Nic

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 11:08:10 AM »
An animation of the ADS concentration values at 5 days increments, from June 30th to July 15th.
(click to play)

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 12:07:37 PM »
925mb temperature anomaly for the first 8 days of July.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: July 09, 2020, 08:51:58 PM »
Fascinating. A quick measurement (histogram) of two areas of the Kara sea yesterday. I think the areas are clear but light cloud is tricky to spot. https://go.nasa.gov/2BU2MUy

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 06:32:21 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

11-day change is -1721
11-day average is -156

Has there ever been a series of numbers like this before? I'm too lazy to look through the historical data. I may load it all into a SQL database to run some queries.

2020-06-27  9.854
2020-06-28  9.723  -131
2020-06-29  9.575  -148
2020-06-30  9.445  -130
2020-07-01  9.262  -183
2020-07-02  9.142  -120
2020-07-03  8.942  -200
2020-07-04  8.807  -135
2020-07-05  8.648  -159
2020-07-06  8.455  -193
2020-07-07  8.276  -179
2020-07-08  8.133  -143


At 11, that appears to be the longest stretch of consecutive 100k losses. Next longest stretch seems to the the 8 days up to July 13th in 2011. A few occasions where a single day or two prevented longer streaks

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 09:06:12 AM »
There seems to be a "wedge" of low concentration ice on the Siberian side from approximately 30E to 130E, it's northernmost corner reaching towards the Pole. It may be an artifact further north but Worldview confirms this closer to the melting edge in the south.

South from the ice are the open waters of the Kara and the Laptev.

The consensus is we are getting a dome of HP at the Pole. This will, among other things, cause easterly winds and concentration towards north. Weather forecast shows northeasterly winds along the Fram Strait meaning some export is also expected.

Should we expect a decimation of ice on this sector? Am I missing something or just a mistaken amateur newbie?
IMO, yes.

00z EURO is game over btw. It's cataclysmically terrible for the sea ice and that is not an understatement. It is really beginning to look like this may be the year to beat / shatter (?) 2012...

And unlike every other severe melt year we still have a decent amount of ice left in Hudson Bay to contribute to the continued cliff....!

The sector bolded in quoted post is going to be severely impacted through D10... the 00z EURO is beyond.






36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 06:34:20 PM »
In case anyone is interested in an on-the-ground perspective on this year's melting season, I put together a time-lapse video using still images from the observatory's webcam here in Alert.  The video covers 12 days from June 18-30, which includes the record-breaking June high temperature of 18.6°C recorded on the 28th.


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 07:16:39 PM »
Browsing through Worldview I noticed the situation in Dmitry Laptev Strait. What was still fast ice 5 days ago is now decimated at an alarming rate. I looked at 2005-2019 on this date , and only 2016 had the ice broken and melting along the whole strait, and no year at all had an open passage through the strait.
Click to animate. 28th and 29th removed due to clouds. A lot of ice disappears on the last day - a testament to the crazy temperatures.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 28, 2020, 07:00:54 PM »
Last week's ice drift map. Give it a click.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 12:32:46 PM »
Can someone post an OSI SAF animation of ice transport?

This month. Click to play.

(Sorry for not posting them recently. Let's say it was due to technical problems.)

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 17, 2020, 12:56:07 PM »
Playing catch-up

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 15, 2020, 03:07:25 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: June 15, 2020, 01:18:02 PM »
Lots of rain all over the place. Click to play.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 14, 2020, 03:47:21 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13-Jun-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,042,486 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,042,486    km2      
-3,205    km2   <   2010's average.
 240,288    km2   >   2019
-647,496    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -118    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -35    k   loss
Central Seas___   -83    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -18    k   loss
East Siberian__   -20    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -16    k   loss
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 118 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average loss of 94 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 3 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 647 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 474 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 240 k more than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Still a marked contrast between very large area losses in the Central Seas(The High Arctic) and below average losses in the Peripheral seas.

Also a contrast between these very high area losses and below average extent losses. I am thinking melt ponds  and/or disintegration of large areas of ice not subject to wind driven compaction - temperatures rule, OK?

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 08, 2020, 06:03:48 PM »
NOAA's OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) anomaly map for the past week does not support the assertion that the Arctic is foggier or cloudier than normal for this time of year. In fact, it supports the opposite conclusion. The Beaufort sea region has been sunnier and warmer than normal and has radiated more heat than normal back out to space in the longwave bands.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« on: June 07, 2020, 08:32:21 PM »
Here is another volume chart, in which 2020 is currently at record low. High Arctic seas, excluding the CAB and the CAA. Some of the extra CAB volume is balanced by missing volume in adjacent seas. What does it mean? I am not sure but at the end of the season we will learn some more.

46
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 3 5 June 2020 - same as 3rd & 4th June

High precipitation greater than much above average melt = SMB gain (but much less than June 3)


Note that in the south west some precipitation falling as rain but mostly not resulting in run-off.

In the south - a bit more rain/snow mix but getting dryer in the coming days.
But as Greenland gets dryer looks like temperatures a bit cooler, i.e. less melt.
_________________________________

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 05, 2020, 07:35:50 PM »
A fairly clear view of the Lena Delta and thereabouts today:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2020-images/#Laptev

48
One impressive chart!


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice and Discharge
« on: June 03, 2020, 09:58:40 AM »
Probably ridging near the ice edge preventing most surface meltwater reaching the sea. One arc of meltwater to the west looks like it is refreezing as it reaches the ice edge. Does meltwater pass under the ice as well? According to Hugh French in 'The Periglacial Environment', yes. Not sure whether that applies to that area of the delta though.
edit: took the coastline out to make it easier to see which parts of the delta have melted.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 01, 2020, 11:11:44 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,834,476 KM2 as at 31-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 48k, 12 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,613 k, 477 k, 15.2% more than the 10 year average of 3,136 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  407 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  66 k MORE than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 31.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 106 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.02 million km2, 0.84 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Another day of below average sea ice extent loss.

Overall, May saw above average extent loss, with the May monthly average extent below the linear trend.

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