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Messages - Aluminium

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 20, 2020, 03:13:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,103,918 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,103,918    km2      
 159,983    km2   >   2010's average.
-27,342    km2   <   2019
-350,425    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     38    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     29    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -6    k   loss
 Other Seas___     15    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     4    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______     6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Daily gain 38 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 28 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 160 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 27 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 924 km2
- 2020 area 7th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +1.6 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 16, 2020, 09:50:24 PM »
Thanks for the regular aminations Aluminium. Focusing on the Atlantic side, a number of interesting transitory features stand out today.
The low concentration ice over the Yermak Plateau, north of Svalbard, detailed on the rammb thread by Blumenkraft.
Low concentration ice close to the edge of the Nansen Basin as far as FJL.
More sea ice to the south west of Svalbard.
Transitory ice edge correlations with bathy in the Barents
gmrt bathymetry map here

3
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 12, 2020, 03:43:41 PM »
Another version of this chart.  IOD = Indian Ocean Dipole.

Mike Hansen on Twitter: "Australian mean temperature anomaly and years with positive IOD (records since 1960).”
https://mobile.twitter.com/hmike01/status/1215839244817616896
Data from bom.gov.au.  Links at the link.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 26, 2019, 06:42:42 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 25st, 2019:
     12,139,528 km2, an increase of 75,369 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 24, 2019, 07:52:23 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 10,926,350  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 10,926,350    km2      
 125,929    km2   >   2010's average.
 60,665    km2   >   2018
-309,889    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     94    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     16    k   gain
 Central Seas__     43    k   gain
 Other Seas___     36    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____     4    k   gain
 Barents ______    -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    33    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    19    k   gain

Daily gain 94 k, 53 k MORE than the 2010's average of 41 k.

- 2019 Area now more than the 2010's average by 126 k.
- 2019 Area is MORE than 2018 by 61 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 956 km2
- 2019 area 6th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Too lazy to look, Armageddon can wait until 2020.
________________________________________________________________________

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 20, 2019, 04:44:06 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 19th, 2019:
     11,614,871 km2, an increase of 61,206 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 30, 2019, 06:21:03 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 29th, 2019:
     10,010,447 km2, an increase of 76,168 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     There is no official value for 2007, average used.
     (In the graph: 2006, 2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 27, 2019, 10:56:42 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,690,540  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,690,540    km2      
-265,187    km2   <   2010's average.
-671,957    km2   <   2018
-755,147    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    96    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas__    58    k   gain
Other Seas___    11    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
Greenland____    12    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    24    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain

Daily gain 96 k, 6 k MORE than the 2010's average of 90 k.

Area gain above average but less than the previous 4 days.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 265 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 672 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,004 km2

2019 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.7  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.
________________________________________________________________________

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 26, 2019, 03:27:17 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,595,019 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 8,595,019    km2      
-271,107    km2   <   2010's average.
-650,028    km2   <   2018
-793,251    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    107    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas__    69    k   gain
Other Seas___    11    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    14    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    19    k   gain
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________    17    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______    16    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 107 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average of 85 k.

Area gain well above average but less than the previous 3 days - peaked, maybe?.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 271 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 650 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,048 km2

2019 area now 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.0  to +1.2 celsius over the next 5 days, -  warmth in the Chukchi/Bering Strait, cold on the Atlantic Front.

Winds highly variable in strength and direction.

Will daily gains stay above average? NSIDC daily extent gains up and down like a yo-yo.

Area losses on the Atlantic Front have stopped and reversed. Greenland and Barents Seas gains continuing. Chukchi extent gains continuing.
________________________________________________________________________

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 15, 2019, 03:34:08 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 November 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,703,083  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 7,703,083    km2      
-290,736    km2   <   2010's average.
-414,615    km2   <   2018
-974,614    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    63    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas__    33    k   gain
Other Seas___    7    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    24    k   gain
CAA_________    8    k   gain
East Siberian__   -11    k   loss
Central Arctic_    10    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 63 k, 33 k LESS than the 2010's average of 96 k.

Area gain well below average, the 3rd day since what seemed like ages of above average gains.
_______________________________________________
Comments
- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 291 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 415 k
- 2019 Area more than 2012 by 89 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 826 km2

2019 area is 3rd lowest in the satellite record. 2016 is the year to watch - low area gains for a bit longer (see graph).

2019 will not go back to lowest for some considerable time to come, (if at all?).
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.
GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +4.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, - generally strong +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean.
 
Will daily gains stay below average? If the very high NSIDC daily extent gain on the last 2 days is maintained.......no?
________________________________________________________________________

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2019, 08:11:19 PM »
This is a catastrophe. :(


No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

The Chukchi and the Central Arctic are opposite sides of the coin.  Let's see what the 2019 season brings.

ps: But what will the Bering Sea do - how open for how long - a big influence on the Chukchi's melting season.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 12, 2019, 04:47:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 11th, 2019:
     8,667,580 km2, an increase of 74,595 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

13
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: November 08, 2019, 12:36:54 AM »
latest track, it seems that Bulbul will make landfall on the West part of very low lying Bengladesh coast, likely to bear the highest brunt of the storm surge, depending on the tide, as on the right side of the cyclone (were the wind will be the strongest) the curving close to the coast could mean prolonged wind damage and storm surge. Fortunately Bengladesh has improved its warning system and sheltering during the past 15 years.
If I remember well the west part of Bangladesh coast is partly protected by a mangrove forest (hopefully it has not been too much deforested?) , a good natural barrier for attenuating storm surge impact... and the cyclone should have weakened somewhat (but intensity forecast could change)


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 05, 2019, 04:47:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

November 4th, 2019:
     8,053,051 km2, a century increase of 116,112 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

15
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: November 01, 2019, 11:44:14 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 16,988,192 km2(October 31, 2019)

Extent loss above average for most of the last week or so

- 2019 up 4th lowest in the satellite record since 2002, and 10th lowest for the years since 1979, but the 2011 data for these few days looks a bit odd.
- Extent is below the 1980's average by 308 k, and 247 k below the 1990's average
- Extent loss on his day 53 k, 11 k more than the last 10 years' average of 42 k,
- Extent loss to date 1.36 million km2, 0.06 million (4.2%) less than the 10 year average of 1.42 million km2 by this day.
- 8.9% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 112 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

far too early to take this seriously.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 2.42 million km2, 5th lowest since 2002 and 0.27 million greater than the record low on 1st March 2017.
__________________________________________

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 01, 2019, 05:16:37 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 31st, 2019:
     7,524,644 km2, a century increase of 148,475 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 31, 2019, 04:02:28 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  5,672,345 km2

Where the rapid refreeze is NOT happening


The Chukchi Sea is still the poster child for Pacification, already at a record length of the open water season. My guess is it will refreeze, but the question is how long will this be slow until resistance becomes futile.

The Beaufort at the CAA end froze rapidly, but freeze up seems reluctant to move westwards and southwards towards the Pacific Gateway - (the Bering Strait). (As is the ESS freeze slow to extend south and East).
___________________________
Meanwhile, away from the Arctic Ocean, the Baffin Sea looks like a record breaker for the length of the open water season. How long will it last?

And the Hudson Sea has been slow to refreeze after being early to minimum. 

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 30, 2019, 01:10:39 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 29 October 2019 :    24,326,153 km2

Antarctic Sea Ice loss in the last week continues above average overall, but above and extremely above average Arctic Sea Ice extent gain, means Jaxa Global Extent remains 2nd lowest, increasingly greatly above 2016 extent.

- extent 204 k below 2018, 913 k below 2012, 1,215 k below the 2010's average, 883 k above 2016,
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 8.08 million km2, 0.67 million km2 (7.7%) less than the average gain of 8.75 million km2 by this day,
-on average 97.4 % of extent gain done and just 6 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.56 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.92 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov-Dec were the most extraordinary). My bet is on 2016 remaining 1st lowest for some considerable time.

The date of maximum depends very much on whether Arctic extent gains remain at such elevated levels. If yes, the maximum would be delayed (unless very high Antarctic sea ice loss)
_____________________________________________________________

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 30, 2019, 08:06:16 AM »
I attach three tables which show the number of days sea ice extent has been below 5M, 6M and 7M km2 around the minimum in a year.
  • 2019 extent was < 5M km2 for 64 days, which is the second highest amount, just 1 day behind 2012.
  • 2019 extent was < 6M km2 for 86 days, which beats the old record of 77 days set by 2007 & 2012 by a big margin.
  • 2019 extent was < 7M km2 for 100 days, which is the tied record together with 2016.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 27, 2019, 04:44:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 26th, 2019:
     6,622,385 km2, an almost triple century increase of 289,282 km2.    :o Wow!
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 26, 2019, 05:45:25 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 25th, 2019:
     6,333,103 km2, a double century increase of 200,323 km2::)
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A decreasing difference of 348K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).
      But a huge difference of 600K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2018 (3rd lowest).

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 25, 2019, 05:43:05 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 24th, 2019:
     6,132,780 km2, a big century increase of 164,968 km2,
     that compensates the low yesterday's increase.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of 469K km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 24, 2019, 05:43:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 23rd, 2019:
     5,967,812 km2, on this date, a small increase of 89,899 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012, 2016 & 2018 highlighted).

P.S. A difference of more than half million km2 between 2019 (the lowest) and 2016 (2nd lowest).

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 23, 2019, 03:22:36 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,604,575 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,604,575    km2      
-947,147    km2   <   2010's average.
-175,403    km2   <   2018
-1,919,459    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    67    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    60    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    17    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    16    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    20    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 67 k, 62 k less than the 2010's average of 129 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 947 k.

2018 is now more than 2019 by 175 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.

2016 is now LESS than 2019 by just 47 k, 86 k the day before. Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph),
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still less cold than usual (GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies rising from circa +2.8 to +3.8 celsius over the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side and a cold blob close to the pole re-emerging.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010's average values. Extent maybe already, Area definitely not
______________________________________________

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 20, 2019, 03:24:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,401,297 km2
                        
Total Area         
 4,401,297    km2      
-779,354    km2   <   2010's average.
-87,415    km2   <   2018
-1,744,831    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    88    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain
Central Seas__    74    k   gain
Other Seas___    0    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____    11    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    8    k   gain
CAA_________    18    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    19    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    23    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 88 k, 27 k less than the 2010's average of 115 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 779 k, 752 k, 724 k, 674 k, 627k, 581k .

2018 is now more than 2019 by 87 k, and daily 2018 area gain continues to increase rapidly.
2016 is now LESS than 2019 by 142 k (125 k). Indeed, it is likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph),
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing but still impressive +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual (GFS says circa +2.0 to +3 celsius temp overall anomaly in the next 5 days), apart from colder on the Atlantic side.

For the last 40 years sea ice decline in winter has been a lot less than in the summer. So one must expect that eventually 2019 sea ice area & extent must play catch-up to get closer to the 2010 average values. Will they? When?
______________________________________________

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2019, 05:52:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

October 16th, 2019:
     5,121,652 km2, an increase of 86,700 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

P.S. 2007 had only four days keeping the lowest record: October 16th to 19th.
Today, 2019 made a new record with an outstanding difference of 432K km2.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 14, 2019, 05:49:48 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 11th, 2019:
     4,764,619 km2, an increase of 66,327 km2.

October 12th, 2019:
     4,830,933 km2, an increase of 66,314 km2.

October 13th, 2019:
     4,880,849 km2, an increase of 49,916 km2.
     2019 is now the lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 13, 2019, 05:05:19 PM »
The JAXA webste is back on line, but no updates, and by the images being sent from Japan, maybe for some time. Hagibis certainly walloped 'em. So here is a substitute again........

NSIDC  ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average):-    NSIDC – TOTAL Arctic Sea Ice EXTENT March Maximum – in km2 million  4,992,633

Analysis as for JAXA data


On this day,
- Extent gain on this day 40k, 61k less than the 10 year average of 101 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 839k, 544 k (39.3%) less than the average gain to date of 1,383 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 204 k more than 2012,
- 13.7% of the season done, 151 days on average to go.

The Perils of Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.69 million km2, lowest in the satellite record by 0.55 million km2 compared with 2017 (14.24 million km2).
____________________________________________________________

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 11:46:23 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 8 October 2019 :   22,792,219  km2

An Antarctic Sea Ice loss above average and an Arctic Sea Ice extent loss results in Jaxa Global Extent staying at lowest in the satellite record by a greater amount. That's lowest for 136 days this year.

- extent loss 47k, 118k less than the average GAIN of 71 k.
- extent 74 k below 2018, 229k below 2016, 439 k below 2012.
- extent gain from the March minimum to date is 6.54 million km2, 0.91 million km2 (12.2%) less than the average gain of 7.46 million km2 by this day,
-on average 82.6% of extent gain done and 26 days to the average date of maximum in early November.

The Perils of Projections

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years would result in a maximum of 24.36 million km2, 2nd lowest but  0.72 million above the extraordinary 2016 year (of which Oct-Nov were the most extraordinary).

If, a big if, Arctic re-freeze continues to be very slow, and Antarctic extent loss speeds up to average, 2019 will give 2016 a run for its money for the remaining 4 weeks to maximum.

In any event, it is likely that 2019 data will continue to draw the line on the unused part of the graph paper for a week or two longer. (another hostage to fortune)
_____________________________________________________________

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 08, 2019, 03:36:12 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,772,152 km2
                        
Total Area         
 3,772,152    km2      
-284,422    km2   <   2010's average.
 40,449    km2   >   2018
-1,245,511    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    14    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -5    k   loss
Central Seas__    18    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    8    k   gain
CAA_________    10    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 14k, 43 k less than the 2010's average of 57 k.
_______________________________________________
Comments
Note how 2019 Area has retreated by 248k from the 2010's average which it equaled on 23 September, but 2018 retreated even more.
Also area is still 121k more than 2007.

I thought a plume of warm air was heading for the Barents. It seems to have arrived. It is also penetrating the CAB for a day or 2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
No real change....low daily gain continues.
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual - at least for the next few days.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 06, 2019, 03:49:14 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 3,741,629   km2

                        
Total Area         
 3,741,629    km2      
-213,527    km2   <   2010's average.
 14,687    km2   >   2018
-1,130,981    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change    22    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    15    k   gain
Other Seas___    1    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    9    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain

Daily gain 22k, 24 k less than the 2010's average of 46 k.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?
Diminishing but +ve SST anomalies, and most of the Arctic still warmer than usual.
The Chukchi Sea resisting freeze, even small area losses in the last 4 days. ESS lost significant area in the last 3 days.

The age old conflict between heat and cold, with more ammo for heat.
______________________________________________

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 28, 2019, 06:00:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 27th, 2019:
     4,310,768 km2, an increase of 41,811 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: August poll
« on: September 27, 2019, 06:28:55 AM »
How are things looking for the September average now with just a few days to go? Which bin is it heading for?
4.25 - 4.50 M km2.
I will calculate the average tomorrow (America's time).
The correct bins are: 4.00 - 4.50 & 4.25 - 4.75 M km2.

Edit:
I already did it. Average daily (not 5-day trailing) September 1st-26th: 4.2704 M km2. At this date, 2019 is even with 2007.
The last daily value (Sept 26th): 4.416 M km2.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 25, 2019, 05:44:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
September 24rd, 2019:
     4,234,869 km2, an increase of 75,149 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

35
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 23, 2019, 10:58:54 AM »
Karen

18 frames, 10-minute increments

Click to play!

36
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 20, 2019, 03:11:27 AM »
Houston, Texas.
Buffalo Bayou flooding.
- The Weather Channel

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 18, 2019, 12:36:43 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 3,964,239 km2(September 17, 2019)

There was I, expecting by now to be making sure my data for this year's freezing season was in order.......
As you can see from the first table, the melting season is supposed to be over.


On this day,
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 750 k greater than 2012, 330 k less than 2016, and 101 k less than 2007,
- Extent loss on this day 27 k, 35 k different from the average gain on this day of 8 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,307 k, 516 k (5.3%) greater than the average of 9,791 k loss from maximum on this day.

The Perils of Projections.
2018 remaining melt (0.03 million km & the only year left) would give a minimum of 3.93 million km2, 2nd lowest (now guaranteed), 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2, 0.09 million km2 less than 2016, 0.14 million km2 less than 2007.

____________________________________________________________
Ice Melt Outlook ??

It is supposed to be the beginning of extent gains.
The melting season thread reports new ice in several locations.

But......
____________________________________________________________
So far the minimum is 4 days later than average. 2018 kept on reducing extent for another 4 days. Vague memory of some science papers talking about further sea ice reduction being concentrated in autumn and early winter. The shape of things to come ?

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 16, 2019, 02:01:39 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,006,036 km2(September 15, 2019)

Some other bits

Plume of projections & September average - First 2 images attached


Love the graph, so pretty. What it does show is that from now to September 30th, extent might increase by only 200k (2018) or as much as 800k (2016). The average is 500k. If that happens, the 2019 September Average will be about 200k less than the 2016 September average.

I think I will be looking at monthly averages a lot more in the future.

Current Minimum Compared with previous years

The actual minimum might be a little bit different, but the main conclusions will remain the same.
The forum, and elsewhere too often compare the current situation with 2012. But 2012 is an outlier** (see below). Although the 2012 minimum is about 0.82 million km2 below 2019, the trend shown by 2019 is clear.

The 2019 minimum is currently below the 2010's average by 388k km2, 8.8%. Taking the 2010's average as the midpoint, this implies a rate of change of somewhat more than that.

The 2019 minimum is currently below the 1980's average by 3.2 million km2, 45%.

365 Day Average
This year's melting season has seen a reduction in the 365 day average by over 150,000 km2, with a good chance of a new record low minimum 365 day average sometime in 2020.

2019 has seen a continuation of long-term reducing sea ice extent.
_______________________________________________________________________
**Outlier
In statistics, an outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other observations.  An outlier can cause serious problems in statistical analyses.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 13, 2019, 05:48:42 AM »
September 12th, 2019:
     4,087,341 km2, a drop of -23,223 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 12, 2019, 05:49:15 AM »
September 11th, 2019:
     4,110,564 km2, a drop of -39,332 km2.
     2019 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 10, 2019, 05:45:13 AM »
September 9th, 2019:
     4,170,163 km2, an increase of 6,693 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).

42
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 05:40:35 PM »
NOAA buoy 41004 is located 41 nautical miles south east of Charleston, and looks to be in Dorian's eye at the moment:


43
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 05:23:16 PM »
Dorian is a highest category 5 in wind speed (seen a report of 185mph sustained winds) in my proposed scale (extended beaufort/hfws/tornados), based on earlier suggestions found in the net, gusting to 7 (flattening most stuff). Hopefully no inhabited islands of Bahama disappear.

44
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 01, 2019, 10:14:10 PM »
185 kt in the forecast is something. Is it possible?

And a couple of those forecasts have it cat 5 in a week. Could it reach Washington or New York in that much time?

Current GFS model puts it near NYC on Sat Sept 7.  But it’s much too soon to rely on this for actual location or strength.

45
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 31, 2019, 09:03:09 PM »
RAMMB update

60 frames, 10-minute increments.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 30, 2019, 11:52:19 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,328,655 km2(August 29, 2019)

JAXA daily extent loss in the last 2 weeks very much below average and on this day up from a -0k extent loss to a below average 11k extent loss. Definitely not a one-off - this is an event.

- Extent is still 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 778 k greater than 2012, 75 k less than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 11 k, 22 k less than the average loss on this day of 33 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 9,941 k, 411 k (4.3%) greater than the average of 9,532 k loss from maximum by this day,
- Extent loss from maximum to date is still second highest in at least the last 12 years, only second to 2012,
- On average 96.5% of the melting season done, with 15 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.35 million km) would give a minimum of 3.98 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2 and 0.04 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.02 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually but erratically reduce until the minimum. 

On average, each day now consumes 7% of the time available for further extent loss.

Given that Arctic temperature anomalies have been consistently above average and that SSTs have been and are very high, this two week stall in extent (and now area) loss is a complete mystery to me.
____________________________________________________________

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:14:40 PM »
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing average) :- 4,390,697 km2(August 26, 2019)

With me AWOL yesterday and JAXA AWOL today, some of you may be showing signs of data-deprivation stress. So here is an analysis of NSIDC Extent in JAXA format. However, using 5 day trailing averages. I know it is only methadone, not decent grade heroin, but it is the best I can do.


Extent loss has been dismally low for about the last 10 days, but
- Extent is still 2nd lowest in the satellite record,

- Extent is 613 k greater than 2012, 260 k less than 2016.
- Extent loss on this day 13 k, 42 k less than the average loss on this day of 55 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 9,984 k, 457 k (4.8%) greater than the average of 9,527 k loss from maximum by this day,
- Extent loss from maximum to date is also second highest in at least the last 12 years, only second to 2012,
- On average 94.2% of the melting season done, with 18 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining extent loss (0.59 million km) would give a minimum of 4.05 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, 0.66 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.39 million km2 and 0.09 million below the 2nd lowest in 2016 of 4.14 million km2.

Ice Melt Outlook The peak days of daily melt are past. From now to minimum, on average daily extent loss will gradually but erratically reduce until the minimum. 

On average, each day now consumes more than 5% of the time available for further extent loss. If, as in 2017 & 2018, extent loss from now was very low, the final minimum could be in 4th place, 2012, 2016 and 2007 being lower..
____________________________________________________________

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 24, 2019, 05:40:49 PM »
NSIDC daily extent

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 19, 2019, 04:30:14 PM »
Hi Gerontocrat
Re your 365 chart: what if you fit a straight line to the 3 peaks and also to the troughs? This would show a 'channel' that might indicate future trends...?
And many thanks for the ongoing updates of data... they are a daily go-to for me...
Cheers!
I am looking at other sea ice stuff - e.g. ice-free days & open water trends - so yes I could, but I won't, at least for some time.

ps: Looks like NSIDC is having a day off

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 18, 2019, 04:00:54 PM »
NSIDC daily area is now 3.076 million km2, which is second lowest for the date:



The year-to-date minimum for 2019 so far is 7th lowest on record.  It will probably go below the 2010, 2017, 2007 and 2011 minima soon.

     year    minimum
1   2012   2.228 million km2
2   2016   2.463
3   2011   2.916
4   2007   2.955
5   2017   3.001
6   2010   3.072
7   2019  3.076 (year-to-date)
8   2008   3.080
9   2015   3.139
10 2018   3.235

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