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Messages - El Cid

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 06, 2020, 10:17:04 AM »
December 24 - January 5.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 12, 2019, 04:50:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

December 11th, 2019:
     11,194,613 km2, an almost century increase of 98,672 km2.
     But on the other hand, 2019 becomes 2nd lowest on record
     (we can say that tied with 2017 & 2018).
     The fourth worst years are the four last years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 20, 2019, 08:56:16 PM »
A possible mechanism for correlation of bathy with summer ice edge from Svalbard to FJL and possibly to SZ. The first animation shows this year's ice drift from oct1-nov18. The east oops, west spitsbergen current is probably not in doubt on this thread. It's effects can be seen on the surface clearly at times during the animation and, in my view, also beneath the ice as leads or lower concentration up until the line where the 'warm water waterfall' falls into the Nansen basin. There may be some mixing but I think the dense, high salinity water sinks quickly to at least 75m, taking the heat with it. edit: Ice colour, normally white, has been inverted to make it easier to see the bathymetry.
2018 from here was a better example but you have to imagine the bathy and forgive the very basic science. Studying that particular argo float data in detail may answer some questions (or raise many many more) 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 07, 2019, 09:56:26 AM »
October 31 - November 6.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2019, 05:38:09 PM »
October 15 - November 4 (fast).

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 30, 2019, 08:06:16 AM »
I attach three tables which show the number of days sea ice extent has been below 5M, 6M and 7M km2 around the minimum in a year.
  • 2019 extent was < 5M km2 for 64 days, which is the second highest amount, just 1 day behind 2012.
  • 2019 extent was < 6M km2 for 86 days, which beats the old record of 77 days set by 2007 & 2012 by a big margin.
  • 2019 extent was < 7M km2 for 100 days, which is the tied record together with 2016.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 30, 2019, 06:20:16 AM »
October 25-29.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2019, 07:43:14 AM »
October 19-23.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 29, 2019, 11:05:10 AM »
Mercator sea temperature 0m overlaid with unihamburg amsr2-uhh at 50pc transparent. amsr2 0% ice (open water, normally dark blue) has been set to fully transparent. sep1-28.

The CAB pushing into the Beaufort meeting resistance with warm water from amundsen gulf  and eastern chukchi. The warm current from east spitzbergen finally making headway against the ice export towards the fram strait. Similarly with the warm current from the Kara sea. Laptev also warm.
Warm winds forecast across chukchi over the next few days.
Hurricane Lorenzo forecast to move north at speed.
click to run

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 19, 2019, 08:32:36 AM »
August 18 - September 18 (fast).

Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:07:31 AM »
A late century drop in extent shows there are still possibilities for second lowest place ( in my limited data set).

Here is an animation of the Arctic Basin compared with 2012. Click to start.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 27, 2019, 05:48:18 AM »
Aug 20-26

5-day min v. original Bremen

Some reversal of recent trends; expect extent to drop a bit and area to continue dropping. Alaskan side: took a significant hit from the storm yesterday (even though it wasn't big), with both compaction and melt. Asian side: Swiss cheese holes are rapidly expanding -- it wouldn't take much to drop a large area below 15%. Atlantic side: continues stable (minor advance). CAA: doesn't seem to be doing much -- I guess the storm a few days ago, despite significant local effects in some places, was too brief to be reflected much in overall area/extent.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 10, 2019, 02:00:16 PM »
Global Temperature changes often contrast with individual countries, e.g.

Greenland Temperature change 1784-2018.
Obviously going up - but note the very warm 1940's and the cold decade 1984-1994

Denmark Temperature change 1873-2018
Obviously going up - but note the mostly cold years 1940 to late 1980's

Denmark also getting wetter and sunnier - counter-intuitive for a mid-latitude climate to be wetter and sunnier? (graphs attached)

More by luck than judgement I eventually stumbled on the Greenland climate data from DMI's list of publications @

What a lot of data - mostly very detailed  (Data file 19mb zip)) but some summary data

So I looked at Denmark (Data file 70 mb zip) as well

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 03, 2019, 03:30:39 AM »
July 23 - Aug 1 (2 weeks)

3-day trailing median (left) vs. original Bremen map (right)


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 28, 2019, 06:39:49 PM »
HYCOM - Arctic ice thickness (CICE) model - July 29 - August 4

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 05:54:48 AM »
can you do the same median for 2012 so that we can compare the two?

Good idea. I've done better: Here are 5-day trailing medians for July 7-25 for both 2012 and 2019. (The earliest day in the archive for 2012 with a complete map is July 3, so I can't go back any further.)

That Pacific-side swath that in 2012 eventually melts out starts dropping most dramatically around July 20. I suspect it may have had something to do with this cyclone: .

Based on these, 2012 certainly does look worse on July 25 than does 2019. However, given how fast 2012 dropped in the week or so prior, personally I think it's still too early to tell whether 2019 might also start / keep dropping fast. Depends what happens in the next week or two. I was thinking that some cyclones like in 2012 might be needed, but according to several other posters maybe some strong highs will do as well. We shall see -- very interesting season!

Click to animate.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 06:57:32 PM »
July 1 to 13, 5-day lagging median.

Click to animate.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 14, 2019, 08:39:06 AM »
Another question Wipneus, you posted a chart last year that showed the distribution of PIOMAS thickness bins and was a good predictor of area at minimum, if I am not mistaken. Could you post it again this year?

That would be the gice graphs. For an explanation of gice see,119.msg152005.html#msg152005

Attached are the 30th June graphs.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 07:57:47 PM »
Temperature anomalies for the first 40 days of summer (anomalies from -4 to +4 with an interval of 1).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 05, 2019, 05:02:08 PM »
I'm afraid a July cooldown is too late to save the ice. Apparently the amount of solar radiation reflected from the Arctic in June is almost a decisive determination of the final September extent (r = 0.91).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 15, 2019, 01:59:52 PM »
SMOS (satellite microwave measurements) beige pixel count on the University of Bremen maps has just dropped to second lowest in the years from with data, beginning from 2010, on the latest date for which the Bremen SMOS map is now available: 14 June 2019.

That ranking is according to the very useful graph that Steven puts out.

The beige pixel count provides a measurement of the area of Arctic sea ice that has NOT yet been wetted by (mainly) melt ponds, and that is therefore still reflecting most of any direct sunlight rather than absorbing it as heat.

So a lower beige pixel count corresponds to more of what Neven calls 'melting momentum'.

For 14 June, this year, 2019, is still well above the anomalous year 2012 and is just below the 3rd lowest year, which is 2016.

A large part of the reason for the drop into second place is the notable appearance of non-beige pixels on the Canadian+Greenland side of the Arctic sea ice on 14 June 2019, indicating the onset of significant surface melting there.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 21, 2019, 04:29:20 PM »
50 days of ascat hopefully working better for mac users
Thanks to Sleepy for the ffmpeg conversion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 17, 2019, 05:59:39 PM »
There has been a major shift in the atmospheric circulation pattern around the Arctic. The ridging which persisted over Alaska in February and March has ended while a strong ridge has set up over Scandinavia. This has allowed for an apparent recovery on the Alaskan side of the Arctic, although the reformed ice is very thin and won't last long. The heat on the Atlantic side won't show large effects on metrics because it is going over thick ice that was piled up at the exit to the Fram strait.

One not so good thing for sea ice about this atmospheric circulation pattern is that the coldest anomaly is focused on Baffin bay with strong north winds down the bay. This will enhance the circulation of warm salty water into the bay along the coast of Greenland and the flow of icy fresh water out of the bay into the Labrador sea. This will favor continued overturning in the Labrador sea and the release of oceanic heat to atmosphere over the far north Atlantic and subpolar seas.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 10, 2019, 12:37:20 AM »
Had a look back on the ESRL thickness chart in early April 2018 and compared with forecast chart for 13th of April this year.

The bright pink represents thickness of 1.6m or more. Comparing the two, Beaufort looks a bit better this year (despite the pessimism). Whereas Barents and Kara are worse.

Barents and Kara look like they will melt away quickly this year.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 05, 2019, 08:12:45 AM »
March 30 - April 4.

Ice has broken in upper Ob and Yenisei rivers. Slightly earlier than usual.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 02, 2019, 12:25:33 AM »
Sea surface height maps are affected by differences in air pressure but there's consistent evidence that the volume of fresh water in the Beaufort high's fresh water dome has declined while salt water has flowed into the Siberian side of the Arctic, increasing the salinity of the Atlantic layer and the intrusion of salty water at 30m to 300m along the Siberian shelf edge.

We haven't merely been having warm weather in the Arctic. Winds have favored the influx of Atlantic and Pacific waters and the outflow of ice and fresh water through the Fram and Nares straits.

This is an extraordinarily bad start to the melting season. Maybe the weather will give the ice a break come June and July, but so far the models are predicting a stronger than normal peak melt season. Let's hope that they are wrong, but based on the present SST and atmospheric circulation patterns, the model forecasts appear to make good sense to me. Early warmth and albedo loss will tend to continue into the summer months because albedo loss is like a negative snowball for Arctic heat.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2018, 02:44:56 PM »
An amateur attempt to match argo float 3901910 to amsr2-uhh to see how close to the ice edge it travelled, aug18-dec14. It reported weekly until december and has been reporting daily since. Report (cycle) numbers are overlayed onto Greenland, bottom left.
The main observation is that the warm current alongside the ice front is ~2.5C at surface recently.

More details and data here,2417.msg184302.html#msg184302

edit: "These data were collected and made freely available by the Coriolis project and programmes that contribute to it ("

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 28, 2018, 05:11:50 AM »

November 27th, 2018:
     10,457,070 km2, an increase of 46,495 km2.
     2018 is now the 9th lowest on record.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 24, 2018, 07:35:29 AM »
November 18-23.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2018, 07:44:12 AM »
October 31 - November 4.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 22, 2018, 10:24:22 PM »
Not saying it's good but here is hycom sea surface salinity oct22, 2014 and 2018.

copernicus has SSS going back to 1991 in netcdf, free registration

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 22, 2018, 05:47:08 AM »

October 21st:
   2018: 6,248,035 km2, an increase of 112,006 km2.
   2010's Avg.: 6,992,779 km2, an increase of 114,803 km2
2018 is the lowest on record. We can say that it is even with 2016.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2018, 05:52:36 AM »

October 17th:
   2018: 5,772,608 km2, a small drop  :o of -8,089 km2.
   2010's Avg.: 6,490,722 km2, an increase of 121,730 km2
2018 is now the 3rd lowest on record.

PS: Thank you for your comments. As I said, I am not quitting. Just looking to not make the posts possibly 2 days on a week.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 18, 2018, 03:53:09 AM »
Water that gets subducted into into subsurface layers takes years to do anything in the Arctic ocean.  When the oceanographers figure out when that water comes back up I will tell you or you will tell me. The paper did not report on subducted heat resurfacing. So the answer is, I don't know.

What's important to us now is that the Chukchi is changing rapidly before our eyes into a mostly ice free region in the arctic. This will affect both the atmosphere and the ocean in years to come and this year well into late fall and early winter.

I took another look at the Mercator scales. They were the same. Don't trust the forecasts.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2018, 09:26:45 PM »
The Greenland Sea in recent days has seen a rapid increase in area as Fram export licked in, followed by a decrease in area as lows bringing warmer air with presumably southerly winds travelled up the Greenland coast. See 1st graph. That warmth looks like continuing for most of the time in the next week or so.

Despite the noise from Fram export varying in strength from year to year confusing the picture the trend over the years is obvious. The Greenland Sea is losing ice. See Open water graph attached.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 30, 2018, 01:18:34 PM »
We discuss land use a lot in this thread.  Bloomberg’s new graphics are eye-opening.

How does America use its land? These maps show a whole new way to look at the U.S.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 17, 2018, 04:22:27 PM »
possibile the currents in the arctic have basically reversed? Could the whole pack drift all the way to Russia? similar detachments in previous years?
A freely floating ice pack, just blowing in the wind (not so much by currents), has not been raised often as a concern because winds have held it against the CAA where temperatures are colder and winter thickening more dependable.

The weather pattern broke down in early June 2018 and no consistent anti-cyclonic ice movement has been seen since. This can be seen in the chaotic sequence of daily motion vectors at OSI-SAF.

To repeat once more, we are not much concerned with air pressure per se, which though an important driver of event is merely a weak upstream proxy. It is ice movement at the end of the day that matters, as shown on Ascat or tracked daily at OSI-SAF. And that depends on many other factors other than pressure contours and gradients, such as sails and sea anchors (pressure ridges and underwater keels).

A freely floating ice pack would be a "major development" because the ice pack could drift off into warmer waters or break up into several smaller pieces, both of which exacerbate ice volume and extent loss.

I don't recall seeing detachments quite like this before, it is easy enough to check August back to 2012: no two years are alike, Augusts are not always comparable, some detachments can be seen. The animation rows, top to bottom, are 17-16, 15-14,13-12.

Note the main Northwest Passage isn't going to open up at this rate because M'Clure Strait is constantly being stuffed with CAB ice. A roundabout passage may open up on a few days however.

Below, a new version of Oct 15-May 30 Ascat of ice motion in and along the CAA. Lateral detachment, corks bobbing, blocks tumbling, lift-offs and immense lead fracturing etc can be seen. As FishOut notes below, the thick landfast ice is gone; the ice now is extremely mobile just off shore, with big blocks tumbling end over end this year and MYI thinning in extent and even disappearing entirely.

So yes, things may be moving to WIPD (whole ice pack detachment) en route to a BOE (blue ocean event) but WIPD competes with more certain trends such as overall area or volume loss that could precede or moot it.

Or not: the png at bottom shows what remains to happen to achieve total detachment (taken as a path around the entire ice pack of open water to <20% concentration). Even if the ice does hit WIPD this month, without winds moving the pack well offshore, it will simply freeze back onto land in October. Note though the CAA continental shelf is very narrow so it wouldn't take much to create an apron of FYI around the entire pack perimeter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 12, 2018, 10:28:49 AM »
August 7-11.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 11, 2018, 05:39:23 AM »
U. Bremen's false colour ice concentration maps show a week's action in the Arctic basin, ending on the map just released, 2018-08-10...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 08, 2018, 11:18:16 AM »
Made an animation of the opening up north of Greenland. First I created composites of near time images to quit the clouds but tried to respect the general movement as much as possible. Then I applied contrast enhancement in some cases to quit thin cloud covers and mist.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« on: August 04, 2018, 12:44:24 PM »
Thickness map of 31 July, compared with previous years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« on: July 19, 2018, 11:47:05 AM »
Here are several regional charts based on the data from Wipneus. This time I am focusing on this year's laggards - Kara, Beaufort and the ESS, in addition to my usual chart summing up all the regions typically participating in the September volume minimum.
As can be seen, Kara has done some catching up, Beaufort and ESS are still lagging, and the "Inner+" is still keeping up with the leaders.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 17, 2018, 08:41:48 AM »
July 8-16.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« on: July 03, 2018, 04:44:58 PM »
thickness for 30th June compared with previous year and the differences with 2018.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 13, 2018, 09:23:07 PM »
Using compost to build soil health isn't anything new. Land that has been conventionally farmed will respond quickly to cover cropping and added compost. Worms return and after a few seasons the ground will get softer and retain water better . Farming takes time and effort. Moving tons and tons  of compost has it's own carbon footprint in trucking , or chipping, loaders, and spreaders. The trick is to produce tonnage of organic material close to where it can be used . Utilizing the waste steam of urban yard waste is better than putting yard waste into the landfill but it comes with a big carbon footprint attached.
 So ideally a farm could grow and coppice some trees and chip them with a biodiesel tractor fueled by biodiesel also produced with farm grown vegetable oil and animal fat. Chickens could be raised on the farm and their manure used to compost the wood chips. The resulting compost is used in increasing the carbon content of the land you use to produce fruit and vegetables for humans as well as forage and grains for farm animals.
 I am getting close to the above ideal farm. I rented a chipper for some brush clearing I had to do for fire abatement so that wasn't ideal . I also have many more farm animals than I can feed with farm grown forage and grains but that is because I also need to pay bills. If I only had to feed my wife and I and a much smaller number of farm animals I think I could get to that ideal farm where I didn't use fossil fuel and I increased my farms soil carbon.
 Getting to that ideal farm while at the same time earning a living is truly the brass ring. I don't know that farm or that farmer. Amish I would imagine are farming that farm ... Somewhere.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 13, 2018, 06:36:08 PM »

Indeed. Regenerative agriculturalists (see Gabe Brown, Ray Archuleta videos on youtube) seem to be able to increase organic matte in their soil by 0,1-0,3% /yr. That is a lot, it could be 1-5 tons of carbon per hectare. As there are cca 1 billion hectares of cropland globally, it means that we could potentially sequester 1-5 Gt Carbon per year. That is a lot, considering annual emissions of cca 10 Gt C. Plus we could use pastures and forests better. There is HUGE potential in this

I couldn't agree more. I think every day about how we accomplish this on our farm and it's an ongoing challenge. This is an area where public support could really make a difference. Many things we do cost money, obviously, or are really inefficient, and we compete against industrial ag on price. We've had to be very creative about direct marketing to get by.

Prior to becoming a farmer I worked in an area where I built relationships with many larger conventional farmers. I suspect that lots more of them than we might think are open to making dramatic changes to how they farm if that's what it takes to change the course of climate change. Many of them are even aware of this and making the changes they can. To really go for it they'd just have to be able to do it without going bankrupt in the short term. Many things in our system work against transitioning to regenerative farming but I've seen farms do it successfully and that gives me a little hope to hang on to.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 13, 2018, 01:03:10 PM »
How reliable is that information ? That's a few million km2 that lost 30 to 40 cm of ice in just 10 days. I never did any calculations about how much heat it takes to melt an amount of ice. But it looks plenty.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« on: May 21, 2018, 06:46:16 PM »
Updated daily volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

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