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Messages - Human Habitat Index

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2020, 03:11:55 PM »
It looks like peak daily ice gains are happening now. Which means that in terms of extent the advantage of 2020 has peaked for this year. It was 942k a few days ago.

Recent extent gain does stand out this year. Difficult to quantify any advantage.
Thinking about it more, Gerontocrat and BFTV do a great job of making the data more pleasant to look at, but at the moment we only get one daily data point and one full amsr2/nsidc image per day. The curves and transitions are approximations.
I made a different daily change graph to get a better view of this year's late refreeze and to compare it with previous years when extent minimum was very low. I also used 7 day trailing averages which seems to help.

You can see clearly how this year's late refreeze is turning out to be later and stonger than in 2007, 2012 and 2019. You can also see there was no late refreeze in 2016.

I suspect that the stronger refreeze is due mainly to the water surface temperature falling to the freezing range much later in the year, when the air temperature is much colder.  This will facilitate freezing over a much larger area than when the water temperature reaches freezing earlier in the year.

Nope, definitely the Mpemba effect  ::)

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 04, 2020, 09:24:13 PM »
NSIDC Daily extent below 4 000 000 km^2! Yay!

Another century drop of 112 and only 599 away from the 2012 minimum.
<snippage>
I wouldn't say "Yay!" though.
I'll forgive the "Yay!".

It has nothing to do with the ice.

It's the excitement and satisfaction of people, who've been denied credibility for years when speaking to the climate catastrophe we face, seeing tangible validation of what they've been screaming about for decades.

I can assure you, and I think I speak for many here, it is a very grim satisfaction.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 04:37:26 AM »
Osi Saf still reporting lots of ice movement, not surprising given the Nullschool animations we've been looking at. Movement has subsided along the Laptev front but increased at the Barents front. In addition, the Beaufort arm has finally responded to the persistent air flow and started moving as well. With wind not forecast to let up but actually intensify, bottom melt quite significant (as also reported on the Mosaic thread) and the CAB ice disturbingly thin, a cold spell and initial refreeze had better come soon - or else.

Click to enlarge.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 11:31:19 AM »
Interesting Thickness normally goes up at this time of season it was rising then took a large drop down.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 11:18:49 AM »
Wonder how long this 'flat line' will go on for. Because the 10-day air surface temps aren't showing much cold (10-day image not posted because it's a 10-day forecast, which are generally disliked)
I just went through all the years, and it looks like the record years were 1964 and 1979.




6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 11:02:18 AM »
Thanks to Neven for kindly updating the year-to-year Bremen map comparison page.
<snip>
I think we are closer to 2012 that people realize.
Without getting too far off topic. Think about it. Even with a virtual tie with 2012 this leaves 2020
a lot worse off, considering how much other permafrost, tundra, glacier ice, Ice sheet, Ice shelf, ect. type ice that has been lost since 2012. All of which served as back up to the world's a/c system.
You underscore my point.  Thank you.

jdallen Tigertown, I think the beige pixels say the same thing as you.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 10:56:26 AM »
The storm is still in the forecast for Monday. A little weaker, but within the model run to run fluctuations we might expect.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 21, 2020, 10:56:18 AM »

..snip ...
Arctic Air Temperature rank per month and Arctic air temperature anomaly for Jan-July. Air temperature in March was lowest since 2004, April was 6th highest and May 1st highest on record, June 2nd highest and July 1st highest.

That 'brisk March' got us out of some trouble this year? Looking at the trend,
won't be as nippy in years to come.  ;D :'(

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 16, 2020, 03:29:16 PM »
After the attention this thread was getting in 'decorum' thread, I decided to take a look at this here.

- whether a virus is "small" or "big" of course depends on what to compare to. Covid is worse than flu, but not anywhere near the league of, say, plague. Black death could kill 50% of population at the best of its times. We have a long way to go till that.

- due to ecological crisis the likelihood of new deadly viruses increases. "Covid-19" is just a warm-up before a more deadly plague-like stuff could arrive. Who knows when. Take covid as a preparation for the future.

- understandably people are worried about their own health and the ones of relatives. However, AGW will not spare anyone in one way or another. This is what the climate crisis era is all about. You will be thrown challenges, including deadly challenges, one after another at an increasing rate.

- no politics will ever "handle" AGW and the problems it causes. It will always be a panicky reaction to save what still can be saved. The best they could do is to slightly smooth out the crash. But it will still be a crash. And the tougher it gets, the more chaotic it gets and stronger will have a better chance of survival in any situation.

- you have to consider, how media and people's minds work. They are able to concentrate on the most immediate threat, one thing at a time. Media concentrates on what is Big Breaking News today, to sell to people. So of course covid-19 gets way more attention than AGW in media. AGW will never get proper exposure in media. Why? Because the topic is so huge neither media nor people will be able to handle it. Instead they will focus on small events one-by-one. "Omg virus. Omg hurricane. Omg flooding. Omg food crisis. Omg war. Omg political crisis." Etc. But they won't be able to put the big picture together and analyze, what is really happening. Sad, but true.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 03:15:14 AM »
Re-read the comment, all the way to the end. You are in agreement.

yep you're right, my bad, sorry

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 02:31:55 AM »
I'd love to hear from A-team about now.

I was thinking the same.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 02:30:32 AM »
I'd love to hear from A-team about now.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 12:28:53 AM »
Since Friv is not providing band367 images at the moment here is a closer look at an area north of chukchi/beaufort today https://go.nasa.gov/3iocPAY
deep red from band 367 indicating bare ice/water (click for comparison)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 12:15:31 AM »
That is not what he said.  They are different data products that vary in their ability to handle melt ponds and wet ice. 

You can’t bank on some absolute number such as saying “NSIDC area will always be around 600,000 km^2 below the UH AMSR2 3.125km area data.” 

That might be correct today, but it could be different next week. 

Unfortunately, we don’t have a great way to measure the ice. Every method has its limitations. The best we can do is watch and compare and do our best to look at each tool and try to understand what it is telling us.

EDIT: I was typing my response at the same time as Oren. Sorry for being redundant.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 09, 2020, 12:11:53 AM »
glennbuck, I did not say it is always the same constant difference. It depends on ice and weather conditions. A detailed look at both charts (which I recommend that ypu undertake) will reveal differences. For example NSIDC area data says 2016 was lower than 2012 at minimum, while UH says the opposite.
If you have more questions on this please continue in the questions thread.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:53:31 PM »
NSIDC has much coarser resolution but is much more affected by wet ice surface and melt ponds, so during the melting season NSIDC extent > UH extent > UH area > NSIDC area.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:45:16 PM »
Both are from the same site by Wipneus and use the same regional demarcation map ("CT"), but one shows NSIDC area data and the other UH AMSR2 3.125km area data.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:35:39 PM »
Is this the same chart uniquorn?
no

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:23:50 PM »
Really I am not surprised at the slow down in extent losses as there was a lot of aggressive preconditioned sea ice this season and much of that melted out quickly and completely in July leaving no easy melt remaining.  Subsequently we have seen aggressive melt and disruption of the Beaufort and Chukchi and disturbing weakness north and east of Peary Land to a degree I cannot recall seeing in prior years.  Almost looks like a channel may form across the Fram and up and east of the Morris-Jesup Plateau towards the pole.  Additionally the situation looks to be un-favourable along the Atlantic front ( if no more melt occurs there it is already not a good year ) or the CAA.

Thus I am surprised by commentary anticipating a continued slowdown in extent losses when it looks much more like losses are about to pick up again.

You're most probably on the wrong track and I am surprised that you cannot see what's visible with our naked eyes in addition to the many other parameters that were explained in detail.

Re-read the comment, all the way to the end. You are in agreement.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:19:38 PM »
Comparisons to 2011 seeming increasingly valid. 2011 was a sneaky CAB volume destroyer. Though a BOE is still a little ways off, a crippling blow is starting to consistently only be one step away. Combo a low vol spring start with a summer like this one and viola. We came decently close in 2016. The pack was a wreck in Sep that year.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 10:54:59 PM »
When I look at that, and then compare it to the DMI thickness map, I'm really starting to wonder if the DMI isn't a lot better than most people here thought. It's a perfect match in that area.

Might find this of use.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 10:23:02 PM »
Really I am not surprised at the slow down in extent losses as there was a lot of aggressive preconditioned sea ice this season and much of that melted out quickly and completely in July leaving no easy melt remaining.  Subsequently we have seen aggressive melt and disruption of the Beaufort and Chukchi and disturbing weakness north and east of Peary Land to a degree I cannot recall seeing in prior years.  Almost looks like a channel may form across the Fram and up and east of the Morris-Jesup Plateau towards the pole.  Additionally the situation looks to be un-favourable along the Atlantic front ( if no more melt occurs there it is already not a good year ) or the CAA.

Thus I am surprised by commentary anticipating a continued slowdown in extent losses when it looks much more like losses are about to pick up again.

You're most probably on the wrong track and I am surprised that you cannot see what's visible with our naked eyes in addition to the many other parameters that were explained in detail.


We shall see century drops again and i recommend patience. Nature does not follow our "whishful" thinking paterns.

As I posted earler, as soon as a chart doesn't follow a linear curve to oblivion too many jump at each cliff and each slowdown as that would make up for the rest of the season.


I promise you that within 14 days you will have understood and changed your mind.

I personally opted all season for second place around 3.5M km2 extent and stick to it

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 10:22:45 PM »

Wipneus regional area, CAB, aug7

Is this the same chart uniquorn? They both start around 4.400,000 km^2 but this one is lower, this is CAB from regional area NSIDC data, 7th August. Around 2,700,000 km^2 but yours is around 3,300,000 km^2.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:57:49 PM »
Again the actual poof event in a slightly higher resolution (I must admit that on the multicolored Bremen graph it looks even more devastating):
I understand why extent isn’t collapsing but I’m scratching my head trying to figure out why area isn’t dropping like a stone.  Makes no sense looking at Bremen and worldview.
Wipneus regional area, CAB, aug7

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:54:50 PM »
JAXA AMSR2 Arctic Sea ice average thickness, this was not available for the 4th of August and it looks like it set a new seasons record low beating 2015,s record low, that was set later in August.

7th August 2020, has dropped below the new record set on the 4th August 2020.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:28:27 PM »
Wow that weak spot almost reaches the pole! It looks like there's just rubble along the entire CAA/Greenland northern coastline at this point as well.

E: based on that DMI map, maybe it does reach the pole. I am very interested to see how that channel/region develops over the next few weeks as well as next season. Would be very interesting if this was the beginning of a new feature, similar to the mega crack over the last few years.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:27:17 PM »
A clear(ish) day, so a picture for the record. https://go.nasa.gov/3gH0W8G nth greenland.
When I look at that, and then compare it to the DMI thickness map, I'm really starting to wonder if the DMI isn't a lot better than most people here thought. It's a perfect match in that area.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:09:56 PM »
A clear(ish) day, so a picture for the record. https://go.nasa.gov/3gH0W8G nth greenland.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:06:38 PM »
Freegrass,

Thanks for posting these representative charts.
No problem P-maker. I'm happy I finally found a way to contribute to this forum and the climate debate in a useful way. I really appreciate the kind words.  :)

Too funny PMT!  ;D ;D ;D
But I'm still going down Nares in my canoe though...  ::)
Wondering why nobody is talking about the elephant in the room...

Needs a click.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:05:20 PM »
Really I am not surprised at the slow down in extent losses as there was a lot of aggressive preconditioned sea ice this season and much of that melted out quickly and completely in July leaving no easy melt remaining.  Subsequently we have seen aggressive melt and disruption of the Beaufort and Chukchi and disturbing weakness north and east of Peary Land to a degree I cannot recall seeing in prior years.  Almost looks like a channel may form across the Fram and up and east of the Morris-Jesup Plateau towards the pole.  Additionally the situation looks to be un-favourable along the Atlantic front ( if no more melt occurs there it is already not a good year ) or the CAA.

Thus I am surprised by commentary anticipating a continued slowdown in extent losses when it looks much more like losses are about to pick up again.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 08:41:26 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Large GiFS!

I waited an extra hour and a half, but Nullschool still didn't update one file, hence the error at the end...

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 08:06:20 PM »
Freegrass,

Thanks for posting these representative charts.

It's fascinating that during spring - early summer we had a near constant airflow from Bering to Brussels. This was a consistent advection of clean, cold air from the largest ocean on earth ( the Pacific ) to the largest continent ( Eurasia ).

Now, in the late summer - early autumn, we have the complete opposite general flow of air from Brussels to Bering. Nearly all the forecast models have had a tendency for some time to build up a high pressure bridge from northern Europe to the Pacific.

Since this seasonal change of winds have only manifested itself over the past couple of years, it may be too early to give it some kind of large scale monsoon name, but nonetheless, it is about time to figure out if this pattern of seasonal wind change has come to stay for a number of years or not.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 02:51:09 PM »
I'm no expert but it seems regardless of whether or not 2020 is 1st, 2nd, or 3rd it will be the year that is known for setting up the arctic to go poof.  Even if the Beaufort somehow hangs on it is only because of the massive export to it throughout the season.  It does look like it will go though.

The crack (which spurred me to finally sign up for an account here in 2015) has gotten bigger than ever and the bastion of MYI (CAA) is becoming open water and rubble almost to the pole.  Some previous years like 2015 show similar massive damage North of Greenland but 2020 seems more comprehensive.

It reminds me of 2007 in the way that caused such lasting damage.  I don't know where to find weather from 2007 but it did have some big losses in late August and early September.  It would be interesting to compare the 2007 weather with this years.

Just my thoughts.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 22, 2020, 12:06:44 PM »
I think there is a miscommunication here. The ice is/was "compacting", meaning it was generally moving towards the center of the pack, as an expected result of the high pressure and anti-cyclonic winds. I think all/most posters agree on that.
However, is the ice compact, meaning with no small holes inside the pack? I think many posters are saying no, it is not compact, since area has disappeared while the ice was moving northward, thus there is less ice covering a smaller extent.
Is the ice strong and defensible? I think many posters are saying no.
And have ice floes stacked on top of one another due to the northward movement, as happens with pressure ridges in winter? I think most/all posters now agree that no.

BTW, great animation Pagophilus.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 05:03:17 AM »
OH MY GOD. So let me get this straight

The 50+ mile wide strips of 4M+ ice that PIOMAS has incorrectly modeled going back to Spring have maintained themselves through some process where the broken up chunks of one to two meter ice are somehow being flung/thrusted on top of each other over and area that's like 50 to 100 miles wide and 5 times as long?????!

What the ???!


Not to forget the fact that thing entire region has been hit WITHOUT PAUSE by relentless heat and sun.  Phoenix keeps reiterating that temps are EDGIBNG CLOSER TO 0C in GFS land.

TWO THINGS....

1.  The MELTING POINT OF SEA ICE IS ROUGHLY -1.5C TO -1.8C. 

SO SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE 0C ARE ROUGHLY 2C ABOVE THE FREEZING POINT OF THE SEA ICE GOING BACK ALMOST A MONTH. 

SO A MONTH OF RELENTLESS WARMTH AND LOTS OF SUN AND... SOMEWHERE AROUND 6-10 DAYS OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS PUSHING 5-15C TEMPS OVER THE LINCOLN SEA WHICH SAW THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CAB TURN INTO A GIANT MELT LAKE THAT APPEARED ON AMSR2 AS 50-70 PERCENT CONCENTRATION OF ICE UNTIL IT SUBSEQUENTLY DRAINED SHORTLY AFTER.

AND since they drained temperatures have remained well above freezing.

ALBEDO HAS REMAINED VERY LOW. 

THE ICE SURFACE RESEMBLES WET BARE ICE WITH MELT PONDS EVERYWHERE.

THE MODIS REPRESENTATION SHOWS THIS AREA OF UNPRECEDENTED 4M THICK ICE THAT STACKS ONTO ITSELF OVER A REGION THAT IS ROUGHLY 50-100 MILES WIDE AND 5X AS LONG AS BEING TOTALLY SMASHED INTO SMALL, VERY SMALL, AND TO SMALL TO SEE ON MODIS.

OH AND EVEN THO THE WIND HAS BEEN UNIFORM OVER THESE REGIONS NOW VISIBLY LARGE FETCHES OF OPEN WATER.  THAT CONTAINS NO ICE ARE NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS GOLDILOCKS ZONE.

NOT TO FORGET A HUGE 40 MILE WIDE AREA OF OPEN WATER BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE GOLDILOCKS FIELD OF DESTROYED ICE FLOES.

THIS SWATH OF OPEN WATER IS SO BIG AND DEVOID OF ICE THAT MICROWAVE SATELLITE SCANS ARE PICKING UP 1-2 DEGREES C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER UNPRECEDENTED PART OF THIS MELT SEASON.





TWO MORE POINTS BEFORE I END MY RENT AND APOLOGIZE FOR BEING CONDESCENDING BUT I JUST CANNOT TAKE THIS NONSENSE I COME HERE SO A BUNCH OF REALLY SMART GUYS CAN GET TOGETHER AND TRACK AN UNPRESIDENTED CLIMATE EVENT TOGETHER.  A CAMARADERIE THAT I THOUGHT WAS GROUNDED IN THE PURSUIT OF FACTUAL SCIENCE AND EVIDENCE.  AND YET HERE WE ARE STANDING ON THE SHORES OF THE THINGS WE HAVE NEVER SEEN IN MODERN HUMAN HISTORY ON THIS PLANET. 

AND YET THE SCIENTIFIC PROCESS OF COURSE HAS TO BE S*** ON BY PEOPLE WHO JUST CAN'T COME TO GRIPS WITH REALITY.

THIS SHOW STOPPING B******* JUST MAKES PEOPLE LIKE ME AND MANY OTHERS JUST STOP TALKING AND JUST START TRACKING IT BY MYSELF.

@CSNAVY ABOVE LAID OUT VERY WELL. EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ISSUE OF SEA ICE AREA AND YET WE HAVE ENDLESS DISCUSSION ABOUT SOME SLOW DOWN IN THIS UNPRECEDENTED EVENT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED AT ALL.  THERE IS ZERO EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING AND YET IT'S DOMINATING CONVERSATION.


I ALSO WANT TO ADD TWO MORE THINGS PIOMAS IS WRONG.

CRYOSAT IS REAL LIFE MEASUREMENTS.  AND YET IT'S STILL BEING IGNORED FOR SOMETHING THAT IS CLEARLY WRONG.

WHICH IS ONLY BECAUSE OF AGENDA-DRIVEN IDEOLOGY THAT UNDERMINES THE SCIENTIFIC TRUTH THAT SHOULD BE PARAMOUNT HERE.


AND LAST I WOULD THINK THAT IT'S COMMON SENSE THE IDEA OF WEIGHT DISPLACEMENT. 

AND HOW MUCH FORCE WOULD BE NEEDED TO DISPLACE ICE HEAVY ICE ON TOP OF ITSELF OVER SUCH A LARGE AREA WHEN THE ACTUAL ATMOSPHERIC FORCING FROM BELOW IN FROM ABOVE PROBABLY COVERS ABOUT 1% OF THE ENERGY REQUIRED TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN...

AND THE FORCE FROM THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE AND BELOW IS ALMOST EQUAL EVERYWHERE AND THIS REGION AGAIN SAYING THAT'S NOT POSSIBLE.

ALL RIGHT I'M DONE YOU GUYS ENJOY THIS NONSENSE


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 04:19:25 AM »
RE[ The 2020 Melting Season

As we see more heat accumulate in the Indian Ocean and this is transported northwards, more snows fall in the high Himalayas, dragging down the snow line, and INCREASING the efficiency of the heat transport as we head deeper into the year. Basically, as we see more snow linger in high elevations and low latitudes, the enhanced baroclinic gradient is going to send more and more of the surrounding continental and oceanic heat (ever-more amplified by our ever-rising GHGs) northward into the primary polar cell, ultimately destroying it earlier and earlier each and every year. The other anomalous patches of continental snowfall in North America are having the same impact, IMO, and while the impact shifts regionally year over year it is now seemingly WORSENING as a whole which is becoming a driving contributor to Arctic amplification. "

"What starts outside of the Arctic does not stay outside of the Arctic."

IMVHO this posting by bbr2315 is the most significant posting made on this excellent Forum and absolutely belongs to this thread. (Oren - I do not agree with your opinion about the 'appropriateness' for the posting by bbr2315 in the 2020 Melting Season thread but thank goodness you decided to exercise your usual sound 'good judgement' and allowed it to stand.)

The succinct explanation provided for the exceptional weather during the current period of the 2020 Melting Season is not about 'snow' but it is about the 'Arctic Polar Vortex', its demise and the response of Arctic ice to the Arctic weather systems so created. 2020 is the first year to demonstrate so clearly that relationship between the Arctic ice and the Arctic Polar Vortex.

I do not see how the current melting season or any future melting season can be adequately discussed without reference to the Arctic Polar Vortex and its effect upon the Arctic weather systems that prevail at the time. How often do postings end 'but...it all depends on the weather'? The question is, what does the weather depend upon?

To misquote Bill Clinton's famous Presidential campaign slogan 'It's all about the Arctic Polar Vortex you dummy!'

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 15, 2020, 07:30:01 PM »
I wrote out a very long post.  And after Reading the message I wrote out I realized that being so confrontational isn't productive.  So quickly:

1.  I think the notion that energy in the open Waters that are very warm next to the ice DOESN'T contribute quite powerfully to melting adjacent ice is utter rubbish.

2.  The conclusion that the ice is currently compact is utter rubbish.

There is open water all over the ice pack and huge melt lakes and ponds.

3. The melt momentum lacking compared to other years is utter rubbish.

I am getting triggered again.

These same talking points and bullshit rationalizing took place all over between 07-12 and it really hurt the quality of the group discussion.



Accordingly if 2020 finishes above 4 million km2 on jaxa.

Assuming 250-300k losses in Sept.

The rest of the main melt season will only lose 2.75 km2 BETWEEN now and Aug 31st .

That would be an average of 59,000km2 a day.

If the rest of July sees 1.25 mil km2 loss.  Which would be 78,000km2 a day.

And August would be:  48,000km2 per day.

And I can't buy that.

Below is todays modis. Absolutely massive area of sunny skies roasting the Arctic.

And the July 925mb temps so far which are straight insane.

SAY INSANE MELT MOMENTUM.











38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 12, 2020, 11:25:27 AM »
In Beaufort it looks like both top and bottom melt are happening, the ice has softened and spreads into any gaps. The air blowing across it is very dry enhancing evaporative cooling, so both melting and freezing are taking place keeping the sea temperature around -1.8c and air temps between +/- 2c. If any gaps open then spray freezes in the air and salt gets spread over the ice initially cooling it by about 20deg then as it 'normalises' towards 0c acts to soften the ice further. So I speculate that it's in a state of transition and could very suddenly transform.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 12, 2020, 03:02:36 AM »
Here is a yearly extent comparison since 2000 for the period each year from June 27 - July 10 using NSIDC data. 

The GAAC that has been occurring during a near peak insolation period has made 2020 the leader for both total extent reduction as well as the percentage of extent reduction during this past 13 day period.

Year   Melt Total (000's)   % of Ice Melted during period
2000   1.015   9.4%
2001   0.886   8.2%
2002   1.078   9.7%
2003   1.015   9.4%
2004   0.886   8.2%
2005   1.200   11.5%
2006   1.207   12.0%
2007   1.808   17.4%
2008   1.078   10.4%
2009   1.596   15.0%
2010   0.890   9.4%
2011   1.479   15.2%
2012   1.548   16.0%
2013   1.730   16.6%
2014   1.529   15.2%
2015   1.203   11.7%
2016   1.141   11.8%
2017   1.258   12.7%
2018   1.124   11.1%
2019   1.664   17.2%
2020   1.993   20.2%

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 04:04:29 PM »
That's amazing about 1990.

Expecially since temps in June we're average

Color me surprised

Wouldn't really trust the Matrix on this one- either (another example would be Covid-1984). Especially since Agent Orange purged every real Scientist in the Disunited States.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 14, 2020, 03:58:20 AM »
For anyone who doesn't know what a really good pattern for the ice in summer is.

The 12z gem goes there towards the end of the run.

This is an interesting and not so common weather pattern and the forecast puts a large 980 low close to the center of the gyre which would push the bulge of fresh water at the center toward the margins. I'm not sure how long a pattern like this would need to be maintained in order to for the gyre to release a lot of fresh water, but it's an interesting topic.

Here's an old BBC article which provides a little more background on this situation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-16657122


42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 14, 2020, 03:15:11 AM »
A weather system that compacts the ice against the CAA towards the end of the melting season might remove several 100k extra extent at minimum.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 11, 2020, 02:48:56 AM »
This is by far the worst stretch for the ice going from mid-May through today since 2012.

And the weather forecast cements that.

Infact, 2012 got a huge 8-10 day break from the dipole from roughly the 15th-24th.

I am very excited.


44
Science / Re: Science basics-thread?
« on: June 09, 2020, 08:27:46 PM »
Connected Papers: A visual tool for researchers to find and explore academic papers

Link >> https://www.connectedpapers.com/

45
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: June 04, 2020, 03:02:00 PM »
Some new research with troubling consequences:

Ocean uptake of CO2 could drop as carbon emissions are cut

Volcanic eruptions and human-caused changes to the atmosphere strongly influence the rate at which the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, says a new study. The ocean is so sensitive to changes such as declining greenhouse gas emissions that it immediately responds by taking up less carbon dioxide.

The authors say we may soon see this play out due to the COVID-19 pandemic lessening global fuel consumption; they predict the ocean will not continue its recent historic pattern of absorbing more carbon dioxide each year than the year before, and could even take up less in 2020 than in 2019.

"We didn't realize until we did this work that these external forcings, like changes in the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide, dominate the variability in the global ocean on year-to-year timescales. That's a real surprise," said lead author Galen McKinley, a carbon cycle scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "As we reduce our emissions and the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide slows down, it's important to realize that the ocean carbon sink will respond by slowing down."

The paper, published today in the journal AGU Advances, largely resolves the uncertainty about what caused the ocean to take up varying amounts of carbon over the last 30 years. The findings will enable more accurate measurements and projections of how much the planet might warm, and how much the ocean might offset climate change in the future.

...

Nearly 40 percent of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by fossil fuel burning since the dawn of the industrial era has been taken up by the ocean.

...

the Pinatubo eruption impacted global climate, and thus the ocean carbon sink, and whether the drop in emissions due to COVID-19 is reflected in the ocean are among the research team's next plans.

By understanding variability in the ocean carbon sink, the scientists can continue to refine projections of how the ocean system will slow down.

McKinley cautions that as global emissions are cut, there will be an interim phase where the ocean carbon sink will slow down and not offset climate change as much as in the past. That extra carbon dioxide will remain in the atmosphere and contribute to additional warming, which may surprise some people, she said.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/eiac-ouo060320.php

Paper:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019AV000149

46
The rest / Re: Cannabis and Hemp
« on: June 04, 2020, 01:27:01 PM »
No it can't! 🧚‍♀️💞💝💫 The wheelchair doesn't cure the paralyzation...💓🧚‍♀️💗

Edit: The video is worth a watch anyway.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: June 01, 2020, 06:15:57 AM »
‘Zombie fires’ are erupting in Alaska and likely Siberia, signaling severe Arctic fire season may lie ahead
Move over, ‘murder hornets.’ There’s a new 2020 phenomenon to worry about.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/28/zombie-fires-burning-arctic-siberia/
Just by looking at it, it looks like the North Sea route will open earlier than usual. Very hot on the Russian side for two years, almost without winter. And even "zombie fires" that start in 2019 and continue in 2020.

48
The politics / Re: World War Trump
« on: May 31, 2020, 11:21:03 PM »
Shift From U.S. Dollar As World Reserve Currency Underway – What Will This Mean for America?

Today, more than 60% of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in U.S. dollardollars – but there are big changes on the horizon…Some of the biggest economies on earth have been making agreements with each other to move away from using the U.S. dollar in international trade…[and this shift] is going to have massive implications for the U.S. economy. [Let me explain what is underway.]

March 17, 2020 - Read all

At the moment, the global financial system is centered on the United States but that will not always be the case. The things talked about in this article will not happen overnight, but it is important to note that these changes are picking up steam. Under the right conditions, a shift in momentum can become a landslide or an avalanche.

49
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 31, 2020, 08:47:51 AM »

Far-Right Infiltrators and Agitators in George Floyd Protests: Indicators of White Supremacists


Link >> https://www.justsecurity.org/70497/far-right-infiltrators-and-agitators-in-george-floyd-protests-indicators-of-white-supremacists/

50
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 31, 2020, 05:19:38 AM »

Amy Klobuchar declined to prosecute officer at center of George Floyd's death after previous conduct complaints


Her VP hopes just went down the tubes. When Jim Clyburn starts making public comments about your prospects, it's time to pay attention.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/29/politics/amy-klobuchar-vice-president-criminal-justice-record/index.html

"We are all victims sometimes of timing and some of us benefit tremendously from timing," Clyburn said Friday. "This is very tough timing for Amy Klobuchar. ... The timing is tough."

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