Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Stephan

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 8
1
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 29, 2020, 12:01:23 PM »
Tor,

I forgot to say that the evolution in the SIS was not unexpected and I started talking about it in February: "I think they will extend later in the SWT and will have to be followed as they may lead to significant calvings in the SWT."

I add an animation with today's evolution: the ice mix above the Crescent is gone, the Crescent itself is taking off and the other iceberg is going to follow...

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 29, 2020, 12:54:02 AM »
Again, on the topic of the Kara sea. Here's a zoom in. 24./26./28.05.
       Thanks for those superb and highly informative images blumenkraft.  Am I correct that the reported Extent and Area values for that location on those three days is likely to show virtually no change?  Yet the change is dramatic when ice quality and thickness is considered.  That is the monster hiding under the bed for ASI loss.  It doesn't change much for a long time as it absorbs energy and rots out .... and then it falls prey to some intermittent melting event.

        A similar point (albeit in a far distant context) about smooth model projection tractories vs. the bumpy ups and downs of what actually happens is made in a short video by Peter Sinclair https://climatecrocks.com/2020/05/28/new-video-breaking-bad-news-in-florida-keys/
 
       That may seem off-topic, but my point is that the same principle applies to Arctic melt and is becoming increasingly relevant as 2020 early season conditioning softens up the ice for a potential sucker punch later.  Because of the ways we measure/perceive changes, they don't make an impression until a threshold is exceeded and then change seems to erupt suddenly.  But it was building all along.

       Loss of MYI was strike 1 of 'below the surface' change.  Thickness decline leading to structural weakness, fracturing and increased mobility is strike 2.  Strike 3 is when the rot is no longer hidden.

       As Juan Garcia's tag line says, Extent losses mask the other dimension of Thickness loss which is not as intuitively apparent to our visually based monitoring.  Thus, an entire dimension of ASI decline is essentially hidden, and accumulates with less notice.  Then another GAC (or current forecast for large areas of clear sky within 24-->10 days before solstice, https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.prcp-tcld-topo) comes around and Wham!, a whole lot of built-up change potential suddenly becomes manifest, appearing as a dramatic new event even to folks who have been watching all along. 

       I'm preaching to the choir of course, and not revealing anything new to the people who come here.  But those pictures compelled me to comment on ice condition as an under-appreciated dimension, and as the defining characteristic of the 2020 melt season so far.  Call me Chicken-Little, but that ice looks dangerous.  And the records indicate that reaching that condition in May is anomalously early for the Kara Sea.

       All of which is a long-winded way of saying what A-Team (I think) once said.... one of these days... the ice will go "poof."  The nature of complex, interactive, chaotic systems is to not see change coming until it suddenly happens.

3
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 26, 2020, 03:01:24 PM »
To help those who follow this forum less closely, to situate the events of this year's PIIS, I wanted to trace the calvings.
I based myself on the image of the 01/02
The lines drawn are relative to the PIIS losses and do not correspond to the current position of the front that has moved since 01/02.

Click twice to zoom in

4
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 22, 2020, 05:03:12 PM »
Same 6-day GIF, with a different focus.  Hard to be sure about cause and effect, but it certainly looks like the melange at the margin started to give way and the rift opened up in PIG.  Also predictions are even harder, but it sure seems like the calving could be soon.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Nullschool Forecasts
« on: May 21, 2020, 03:14:14 PM »
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is. 

6
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: May 17, 2020, 09:54:49 PM »
Here is an additional image that puts everything from the last post in context.  Note the many fractures at the Western transition of the TECZ which are caused by ice moving faster than the neighboring pinned ice.

The grounding line from 2011 is in blue.

7
I found this page from ESRL/PSLab on Near Real-Time Verification of Short-Term Forecasts During MOSAiC.

https://psl.noaa.gov/people/amy.solomon/MOSAiC_NRV.html

The goal of MOSAiC-NRV is to evaluate the skill of fully-coupled short-term forecasts after each leg (approximately every 2-3 months) of the MOSAiC campaign at the Polarstern location. Multi-model diagnostics focus on process-based evaluation of the coupled system to identify systematic biases that limit the skill of Arctic forecasts.

The attached image highlights the difficulties with forecasting 2m temperatures in the high Arctic even at only 2 days out.

For example at day 44 (Nov 13th?) the obs was reporting - 18 C (probably from Polarstern) with NOAA - CAFS predicting -26.5 C and ECMWF IFS predicting -23 C.

There is quite a lot of variability on these charts, comparing the models to the obs. Especially when you get to a 10 day lead.   

8
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: May 17, 2020, 01:19:43 PM »
Two animations related to PIG news:

First animation related to a mini calving of the "Temporary Cork".
Are the images of the 16/05 and 17/05 (they are very different orbits, hence unwanted effects), aligned on P1.
The calving concerns a small piece that was stuck to the iceberg b4 (in front of b3)

Second animation on rift developments in the MIS.
Are the images of 23/04 and 17/05 (24 day interval; very large images)
Calving for the next season is getting ready!

Click twice to animate and zoom in

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 16, 2020, 01:47:20 AM »
    Ditto ArcticMelt2, thanks for the WAPost article and also those ice thickness images.  They could have spiced it up with some ASIF quotes from the Fabulous Friv.  It is a credit to the ASIF that the experts quoted in the article didn't add to what has already been noted in greater detail in the forum.  Good to see a major US press outlet paying attention to news that matters vs the latest ramblings of the mad King.  Actually, the WAPost climate team led by Chris Mooney is among the best of all the major newspapers/magazines.  Mooney even did a story about Neven and the ASIF back in 2016: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/30/he-created-a-beloved-blog-about-the-melting-arctic-but-it-got-harder-and-harder-to-write/

     Comparing the 2012, 2019 & 2020 sea ice thickness images, the one strength 2020 had was the thick ice near the Fram Strait.  That is the very ice that was presumably pummeled by the warmth, sun, and WIND this week.   2012 and 2019 each had a long arm that may have impeded Arctic-wide rotation.  2020 lacks that structural brace.  I don't know if Arctic-wide ice translocation is affected by the distribution of thick ice at that scale.  The significance of that pattern could just be a visual figment of my imagination.  (Or as Pete Walker said: a "Fig Newton of my immaculation") 

     The last 7 days of the current GFS shows Kara Sea temps consistently above 0C.  Not much clear sky & direct sun in that forecast, but the clouds bring some rain (too warm for snow) to deliver additional thermal energy to the surface.  All of which leads to forecast zero snow cover in the Kara by May 24 https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp.

    The Kara is already running below previous years (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.600.html#lastPost thanks to Gerontocrat).  Putting that together with the forecast suggests that by June 1 the Kara could be in unprecedented condition.

    The Barents Sea hardly seems to matter since any ice in it is doomed anyway.  But FWIW, Earth Nullschool shows continued low-pressure system winds scouring it out for another day or two.  Does it make much difference to clear the lanes for more export out of the CAB?  Erosion of the ice on the CAB - Barents border can't help.  At least the great Fram Flush of early 2020 has ended. 

     Following up on Freegrass's tiptoe through the tulips of DMI images, looking at the DMI temperature graph for every year since 1958 shows that this early-mid May warmup has no real match in previous years. 

     It seems like every year the ASIF gets all heated about impending ice doom.  2020 so far is providing some hard numbers in that direction.  Yes, it is still early, but as wiser watchers have noted, it is the early momentum that sets the stage for the rest of the melt season.  True enough that a basin-scale clear-sky event would be worse if it happened 2-3 weeks from now and closer to the solar max.  Then again, decreasing albedo well BEFORE the solar max increases the impact of reduced reflection of solar radiation. And having a clear-sky event early does not preclude having another one later.

10
Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: May 03, 2020, 10:20:20 PM »
Stephan, the data has not been updated for the current week; your numbers are identical to last weeks post. We have to wait for the figures for the week starting April 26th.

11
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: May 03, 2020, 12:12:25 PM »
Calving of sR1


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 01, 2020, 09:27:57 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation. -- Sorry for missing the mid-month update, personal issues. By the time I was ready to post I figured I should just wait until the end of April anyway.

As of April 30th, extent is 12,627,020 km2. With on average 136 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -85,493 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Additional fun fact! In the month of April we had zero days where losses outstripped their daily BOE requirement. We had 4 of those days in April 2019.

Total extent loss so far this season is -1,820,621 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -31,390 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 6th highest average daily loss from maximum to April 30th (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2).

Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of April, 2020 lost -972,854 km2, nearly 100,000 km2 less than the 2007-2019 average. This is the 5th smallest loss since 2007. (See Attachment 4).

13
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 27, 2020, 12:34:09 PM »
I accidentally found this NASA photo of the crescent in his childhood.

I thought it was pretty and I post it.

click to zoom in


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 26, 2020, 09:45:50 AM »
April 20-25.

2019.

15
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 23, 2020, 07:12:38 PM »
Temporary Cork, the die is cast:

The piece b1 that seemed solid, in the last Sentinel2 image, has lost half of it in several calvings in the last 12 days (see attached anime image), the last of which is the one highlighted this morning.
This piece, wedged between "keystone" and "crescent" is under heavy stress (pressure and shear) and now the distance between these two icebergs is greater than the length of b1. The situation is not tenable and the "keystone/b1/crescent" joint can now break at any time (let's say between 5 and 15 days).

So there's no point in looking at the stability of the other joints in the Temporary Cork.

16
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 23, 2020, 04:36:56 PM »
Today there was also a high definition Sentinel1 image of 09:26.

So I wanted to check if there were any differences and of what type. I find a shift in the other direction, but more limited and concerning only the two bigger icebergs in the center.

So it remains a promising track and it is not invalidated.

Remark: For this type of tests using images corresponding to different orbits, it takes a lot of patience to align the images relative to what you want to highlight and you must be sure that you don't highlight effects induced by the fact that these images correspond to different orbits!

Click twice to animate and zoom in.

17
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 23, 2020, 12:01:37 PM »
I compared the two Sentinel 1 images of 22/04 08h46 and 23/04 04h35 and I see that the rotating current of the Pine Island bay has been practically frozen. The speed of this action, planned by Baking, surprises me a little.

But above all I noticed a movement of the icebergs of the bay towards the SIS and the SWT, movement which can be explained only by currents related to the tides (there is about 4 hours difference between the time of day of the images).

I suspected that they existed but I thought it was impossible to highlight them with our very limited resources and I was wrong!

Remark: the movements towards the open sea in the top right corner are the consequence of the mini-calving communicated in my previous post.

Click twice to animate and click.

18
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 23, 2020, 11:27:56 AM »
No problem, Interstitial, and thanks again for the articles.

Before the forecast, the news: a mini calving in the Temporary Cork, more precisely from b1

Click twice to animate and zoom in

19
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 23, 2020, 11:09:56 AM »
I moved the maps to the thwaites thread where they belong. I shouldn't post while tired.  :P

20
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 22, 2020, 04:10:36 PM »
Yesterday I had posted (post 2097) an animation to show the currents in action at the calving front.
Today's image confirms the analysis.
Remark: even if the sea is freezing, the movement continues and I remind you that this area will see the formation of polynyas in a few months, as soon as the outgoing current starts to regain strength.

21
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 20, 2020, 09:55:30 AM »
The day has finally come.

F


22
Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: April 19, 2020, 07:38:18 PM »
Thanks Stephan!


& I do like the new format. ;)
Terry

23
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 18, 2020, 11:52:14 PM »
paolo,
   Nice summary of the "Sate of the PIG."  I have a few points of my own to add or compare.

1.  The issue on the NSM will be can the margin reconnect to the NIS in the area of recent calvings.  The main determinant will be the stability of PIG, or the MIS as you call it.  As the PIG moves West, if the glacier is strong enough to stay together, the margin could return.  If instead, pieces of the main glacier continue to break off, the margin will never be strong enough to reconnect to the NIS.

2. The SIS calving was a joint effort, induced by both the SWT and the conteracting force of the moving PIG through it's connection at the base of Cork II.  The forces came together at the point and that was the only way it could be relieved.

3.  Cork II is still attached.  It's fate is determined by larger forces.  The rest of the melange, while frozen in sea ice, will be at the whim of currents and winds.  Any piece of melange sheltered on three sides can likely hold on.  Anything exposed on two or more sides, will not last long.  Cork II is different.  It is not held in place by mere sea ice.  Its connection to the SIS is millions of years old, no matter how deformed it appears now.  All that effects Cork II is the movement of PIG and its last remaining connection to the SIS.  Do not compare Cork II to the melange.

4.  All that ice behind Cork III will break lose and be ground down into rounded icebergs and will effectively become the same type of melange as behind Cork II.  It will provide no support, only pressure as the PIG pushes it against Cork III.  In particular, the movement of Cork II is opening up space behind it for "A" to break off and move into, removing any concerns you have about its effect on the SIS.

24
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: April 18, 2020, 11:03:50 PM »
You will find attached :

> A summary animation of calving in the north between 06/03 and 17/04, one Sentinel1 image every 6 days followed by two loops with the first image (06/03) and the last (17/04), aligned with the NIS. What remains between the NIS and the MIS is disappearing and the grounding line in front of the Ice Rises "Evens Knoll" is not far from the calving front.

> An animation on the action of the SWT on the SIS, i.e. the evolution of SR1, SR1.5 and SR2. The animation is based on the images of 05/04 and 17/04: two loops followed by the display of information. The alignment is relative to the SWT to highlight the speed differential between the SWT and the SIS.

> An animation about Cork2 and the icebergs behind him, with a first prediction about  after Cork2's calving.The animation is based on the images of 05/04 and 17/04, aligned with the SIS.

> An animation related to Cork3. The animation is based on the images of 05/04 and 17/04, aligned with the SIS.

Click twice to animate and zoom in

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 11, 2020, 01:05:11 PM »
From NSIDC Data - The 7 Peripheral & 7 High Arctic Seas - Sea Ice AREA

The separation of the Arctic Seas into these two groups is starting to look interesting (I hope).

I attach two sets of graphs -

The first two look at the March monthly averages and deviations from trend from 1979 to 2020.

In the Peripheral seas there is a linear trend of just over 30 k  km2 area loss per year.
In the High Arctic seas there is a linear trend of 94 km2 (yes, a tiny 94 km2)area gain per year.

The next two graphs look at area from March to October from 1979 to 2020.

The peripheral Seas have lost a lot of ice at maximum and very little at minimum.
The High Arctic is opposite - ice area at maximum is unchanged, while ice area at minimum is greatly reduced..

If the High Arctic follows the curve shown in the peripheral graph, the High Arctic losses at minimum would continue on a broadly linear trend until most summer ice is gone, and then may well do an extended Gompertz tail.

As time goes by while in Purdah perhaps other stuff will emerge.

26
Lots of action in the past few days, clearing of fast melange, and calvings. Click to play.

27
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: March 30, 2020, 04:35:02 PM »
In the mean time, a new calving occurred on the NIS

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 20, 2020, 12:55:17 PM »
Lets keep to the ice...plenty of threads to talk politics in the subforums.

29
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: March 06, 2020, 07:44:18 PM »
Before dealing with more serious things than the now doomed Cork2, I'm going to have some fun with some risky predictions about the debacle of the Cork2 and its environment. ::)

Attached an animation to show the movements between yesterday and today.
Be careful not to pay attention to the false effects induced by the different orbits!

The animation ends with a classification of this group of "big ice cubes":
> a: icebergs which should calve first tomorrow or in the next three days (two downstream of Cork2 and one near P1)
> b: Cork2 and ice cubes downstream. In the next few days and in a maximum of 10 days. During the break-up, the Cork2 could bring the iceberg noted "?" (if they are not swept away they should resist for a few more weeks).
> c: the icebergs behind Cork2. They should all follow them in the 2/3 weeks after calving. I will show in a next post where the breakup should stop (temporarily; the limit being downstream of Cork3 who will look at it condescendingly, for the moment).

Stephan,
Unfortunately, there will be others at the NPP in the next days and in the next months, the erosion of this PP will continue and the pieces lost on the Ice Rises Even's Knoll side will not be replaced: calved, lost !  >:(

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Edit gif

30
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: March 06, 2020, 01:16:54 PM »
New Calving at NPP
gif using yesterday's and today's images (aligned as best as I could)

Edit : add day in images

31
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: March 02, 2020, 09:02:09 PM »
An initial summary analysis of the current status of the PIG/PIIS. This is only an initial analysis that I will subsequently deepen and refine by correcting it whenever necessary.

In the first image: Sentinel1 I detail the main elements:
> The current pinning points: NPP and SPP and the future pinning points once the current ones are lost: FNPP and FSPP.
> The parts of the PIIS currently attached to the PIG: MIS, NEIS and SIS.
> the main tributaries concerning us: SWT, T11, T9 and two minor tributaries T_: one tributary of NEIS and the other of SIS between T11 and T9.
> MIS shear margins: NSM and SSM
> The "Zones of Destruction" of the PIIS: NEZD, SEZD and SWZD
> MIS mini calvings in progress and future SWT-SIS calvings

I also attach an image with the elevations of the Ice Shelf (and thus its thickness), an image of the ice flow velocities with the direction of movement and an image of the bathymetry. The images of the elevations and velocities are more or less recent, but the rapidly changing context requires careful use.

Notes:

NPP: There is a narrow band of NEIS supported by the Ice Rises "Evans Knoll". This band has already been eroded by calving and there is nothing downstream. Furthermore, it will be further eroded by the next mini calving and, in general, by the shearing of the MIS. This pinning point may recede, but not much. Indeed, further upstream the strip widens to the NEIS weakly supplied by a small unnamed tributary (T_), a tributary which cannot constitute a pinning point. We will then see the opening of a Zone of Destruction which will join the NEZD as it moves upstream. Finally, we will reach the future pinning point on the north coast: FNPP.

SPP: already from now on it can be considered that there is no longer anything consistent downstream of this pinning point provided by T11 and anyway the SWZD will be empty soon. It is also necessary to take into account that the more static part of the SIS between T11 and SWT will be dismantled by the SWT push (see below; one can also notice that this part already had points of weakness as one can see by the map of the elevations and by the existence of the SWZD and the rifts which opened recently). Without downstream support, the T11 power supply is not sufficient to withstand the abrasive action of the MIS for a long time. The remaining SWZD will moves upstream and it will join up with the SEZD. Finally, we will reach at the future pinning point on the south coast:
Note that if the FNPP is solid and can retreat while remaining solid, this is not the case on the south side, once the FSPP is lost there will be nothing that can stop, even temporarily, the breakup (see the bathymetric map). 

SWT: this tributary, after losing all contact with the MIS, will in time take an eastern direction, breaking up the part of the SIS that currently still prevents it (see above). Taking into account the fragilities shown in the last months: several calving’s (which I have difficulty explaining at the moment) we can also expect a retreat of the SWT.

This general framework is not comforting ...  :'(  >:(  >:(

twice click to zoom in

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

32
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:50:13 PM »
SIS :
The two rifts in the SIS have expanded and are clearly visible in the high-resolution Sentinel1 images. I think they are even longer, but the Sentinel2 images to confirm this are not available at the moment.  >:(  >:(
 
I think they will extend later in the SWT and will have to be followed as they may lead to significant calvings in the SWT.
For this reason I named them SR1 and SR2 (South Rift 1 et 2).

One of the causes of these rifts could well be the SWT being pushed to NE, as it is no longer forced to turn by the pressure of the MIS (the world of old), nor by the Cork (the world of yesterday).

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

33
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 29, 2020, 08:16:27 PM »
I'm back up  ;)

I divide the SSM between:
> MIS,
> ice mélange,
> Icebergs weakly attached to the SIS
> SIS

Consideration: for me the MIS, the ice mélange and the northern tips of the icebergs, move together coherently (not differences in speed).
This implies that these almost icebergs are rotating (their base being attached to the SIS and moving together to the SIS) and considering them as a whole can give the impression of moving slower (average speed between tip and base). Moreover the NW point of the Cork II, because of the rotational movement, seems to me to move faster than the MIS.

At the moment the outgoing currents do not seem very strong to me, at least in correspondence with the south side of the SSM. This could lead the Cork II, pushed by the MIS, to stick to the SIS after turning. This is only a possibility, and wouldn't mean that it wouldn't calve, but that it could do so a bit later (that would be very unstable junk). For this reason I am not giving any advice at this time on the calving of the Cork II.

34
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 25, 2020, 09:57:58 AM »
Just a pretty picture of the cork.

35
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 22, 2020, 08:00:48 PM »
"Cork tracking" will be very difficult

Nah, no problem with EO-Browser. :)

It's grounded ATM.

36
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 20, 2020, 03:19:05 PM »

37
Change the "Subject" in the first post.  If the 'statue of limitations' prevents this, contact Neven.  He's Superman - he can do things no ordinary person can do (on this forum). ;)

(Anybody can change the subject in their own posting, but it doesn't affect any subsequent thread entry.)

39
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 10, 2020, 08:15:00 PM »
It is incredible, what has happened yesterday and today.
I want to thank all the contributors with their pictures, animations and explanations.
I am pretty sure that noone outside of this forum has followed the preparation of this major calving event with such an intensity as we have done it - together.

PS: In Germany in football there is a saying "Nach dem Spiel ist vor dem Spiel" - this saying can be easily transferred into "After calving is before (the next) calving".
+1

Thanks guys for the fantastic work in this thread.

40
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: February 09, 2020, 07:37:43 PM »
I second Oren with the thanks. Tracking these atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases is the single best way to measure the adequacy of our efforts to avoid catastrophic warming. You are doing this site a service by providing these updates which serve as a context for discussions on many threads on this site. The numbers are not good but necessary.

41
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 09, 2020, 09:22:50 AM »
Zoom Crack on the south side

Even the cork lost a big chunk

The bridge between the future iceberg R2/R3 and the cork is destroyed.

Even if the cork remains in place, the path of release of the melange is free.

The animation was already ready, I join it after all.


Twice clik to animate and zoom in

42
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 09, 2020, 09:09:39 AM »
You beat me to it, Paolo! :D

I'll post my zooms anyway. This is a big event!

I'm happy we have the 8th and the 9th as SARs. Low res though, but better than nothing, right? ;)

43
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: February 08, 2020, 11:47:22 PM »
Thank you Stephan for these regular updates.
The trouble with CH4 is that it was supposed to shrink considerably in the last two decades thanks to its short atmospheric residency. That its level was maintained and on the rise in the last few years is a result of continued anthropogenic emissions.
With the othe GHGs, maintaining the level is a great outcome.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 02, 2020, 09:43:30 PM »
2019 was 2nd lowest minimum in the satellite record, and freezing was very late.

Did it make much difference ? Out of the cupboard comes my once a year graphs of the number of days when ice area for each sea was less than 15% of total area of each sea (or less than the 1980s maximum for seas bounded by open ocean, e.g. the Bering)

Some seas, e.g. the East Siberian Sea, had record numbers of days of very low or zero ice-free conditions. Others did not. There are 6 graphs, so 2 posts.



45
Antarctica / Re: Antarctic images
« on: February 02, 2020, 07:07:45 PM »
2nd last set of 3 + 1 map

46
Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 30, 2020, 05:39:17 PM »

47
Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 28, 2020, 05:48:46 PM »
Revision:
Quote
Week beginning on January 19, 2020:     413.65 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     412.19 ppm

this is because they have filled in data for last few days:
Quote
January 27:     413.51 ppm
January 26:     412.96 ppm
January 25:     412.40 ppm
January 24:     412.73 ppm
January 23:     413.91 ppm


48
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 26, 2020, 07:03:41 PM »
I call this one "Schrodinger's Tip"

49
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: January 26, 2020, 06:30:48 PM »
While waiting for the images of the 26th we have the images of the 25th concerning the ice rumple on the west side of the SWT:
The whole north side is breaking up and calving very quickly, although the icebergs may stay there for a while because of the pinning points:

* Overall picture

* Zooming in on the iceberg that has almost calved

* Animation of the zoom on the south side from the images of 06/01 and 25/01 (the interval is not optimal, different orbits, but the image of 05/01 was not good  >:( )

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

50
Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 19, 2020, 06:42:05 PM »
Thank you Stephan. Since you are regularly updating several GHG readings, would it be possible to add a CO2e figure?
In that way we'll have the cumulative GHG effect updated. I know it depends on assumptions but you can put those in.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 8