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Messages - Phil42

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Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 04, 2020, 09:32:18 PM »
I wrote some code to take weekly averages of the SMOS images

Can you average from the beginning of June?

Here is the average for the past 33 days for 2020 (left) vs. 2012 (right).  The large difference between those two years is mainly due to the fact that 2012 was way ahead in the first half of June.

Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 04, 2020, 07:54:55 PM »
Today, by the way, the region not subject to melting has practically disappeared. As in 2012.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 08:21:03 AM »
June 28 - July 2.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 06:37:16 AM »
BOE may happen at the end of the melting season if central arctic will be likely heated for such a long time.

Not happening.

The pole might be ice free.

It's realistic that the remaining ice will be confined to the Southern 2/3rd of the CAB, Greenland sea, Northern CAA, and Beaufort. 

But we are not going to see anything close to a melt out.

Getting under 3.0 million km2 isnt very likely extent wise.

What is at stake is a new volume record low.  Expecially on cryosat/smos since piomas isn't likely to properly model the destruction of the ice that it says is 3-4 meters thick. 

That ice has been getting hit quite hard and it's a only July 3rd.

It's very possible that parts of the CAB end up with reality low concentration towards the end of August.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 29, 2020, 09:08:04 AM »
June 24-28.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 09:54:40 AM »
June 22-26.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 23, 2020, 08:47:25 AM »
June 18-22.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 21, 2020, 10:29:04 AM »
June 16-20.


Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 16, 2020, 12:50:00 PM »
Zoomed out, you can see Petermann fjord being even bluer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 15, 2020, 10:03:55 AM »
June 10-14.


The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 31, 2020, 11:58:42 AM »
I've been working on a list, please feel free to share it:

firing something at innocent person on their porch:

cop way too excited to fuck some people up:

cop shooting rubber bullet at guy for saying "fuck you":

cops breaking supplies for peaceful protestors:

nypd driving into protestors:

cops shoving an old dude to the ground:

police actively seeking out fights compilation:

cop driving at people aggressively on a campus:

cop shooting rubber bullets at people watching from apartment:

police shooting the press with rubber bullets:

police arresting a CNN reporter:

police doing a drive-by pepper spraying

photographer being pepper sprayed:

guy with hands in the air gets his mask ripped off and pepper sprayed:

lady who was coming home with groceries who got a rubber bullet to the head:

reporter blinded by rubber bullets:

reporter describes getting tear gassed:

couple getting yanked out of their car and tased for violating curfew:

young woman gets shoved to the ground by officer:

reporter sheltering in gas station is pepper sprayed:

reporter trying to get home gets window shot out:

cops come at a guy for filming a police car burning:

photographer arrested:

Columbus police assaulting protestors:

congresswoman sprayed with pepper spray during protest:

7 protesters fired on with rubber bullets:

cops pepper spraying a group of protestors without provocation
young child allegedly pepper sprayed:

if you have anything you'd like to add please link it!

Link >>

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 28, 2020, 09:56:10 PM »
Can't compare peaceful demonstrations with mass arson and looting.  :-X

Let's see what we have here. You have an outraged group that is literally targeted by the police since forever. Before that, they where slaves. Now they protest because someone was killed by the cops - again. Then you have the police come in, escalating it as hard as they can, even deploying agent-provocateurs. This, apparently, is the situation at hand.

Just as a heads up, AM, i will not allow victim-blaming. For how i see it, the attacked and smeared protesters are victims here too.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 28, 2020, 02:58:24 PM »
May 23-27.


Jakobshavn is pretty active this spring?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 09:20:50 AM »
Average AMSR2 area contribution in mid-Sep (sorted, unrounded, km2):
CAB: 3,300,562 (max 3,606,190)
CAA: 169,524 (max 244,075)
Greenland Sea: 100,082 (max 179,770)
ESS: 65,956 (max 227,358)
Beaufort: 61,956 (max 189,835)
Laptev: 31,930 (max 112,984)
Baffin: 16,394 (max 31,070)
Barents: 7,976 (max 59,347)
Kara: 6,513 (max 28,714)
Chukchi: 3,619 (max 13,253)

Beaufort is indeed a variable sea, thus important to deciding the minimum, but the ESS is more variable, and the Laptev is also a respectable region of interest. In addition, the actual date of the minimum matters a lot and can vary by 2 weeks.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 07:13:37 AM »
May 19-23.


Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2020 Melting Season
« on: May 17, 2020, 07:16:56 PM »
NSIDC Greenland Surface Melt Extent

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 13, 2020, 12:58:30 PM »
The GFS is probably too warm.

I appreciate your concurrence.

The purpose of my posts are to provide less informed readers some guidance not to put too much faith in the accuracy of GFS forecasts being provided here and on the data thread. Seems you agree that these forecasts are overstating temperatures.

I feel a need to chime in here. I use these models on a daily basis as a meteorologist.

The FV3-GFS was released last June and resulted in some major changes to the way the model handles surface temperatures. The net result left the model with a temporally increasing cold bias (the most severe at longer lead times).

This is less in the last 7 days (-0.25C over the Arctic Ocean), but still present as of now.

It can be useful (at the micro or mesoscale) to compare surface stations to model temperatures, but keep in mind that most modeling assimilates the majority of the data they use from satellites. The lack of surface stations used to be an issue, but with the advent of much higher quality and density of remote sensing from satellites, this has changed significantly.

If there's a difference in output between the GFS and EC in the short range, that's due to differences in how those two models assimilate and handle bias correction. Based on the obvious surface melting signature from MODIS on worldview though, we can surmise that at least the short-range forecasts from the GFS have been verifying well over the Chukchi/ESS/Laptev wrt the extent of above freezing temperatures.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 09, 2020, 11:47:34 AM »
The forecast from 18.05.2019 is added for comparison. The melting season is going to lift off. The next stop is hell.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 08, 2020, 09:07:05 AM »
May 2-7.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 05, 2020, 11:11:20 AM »
April 29 - May 4.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 29, 2020, 08:03:43 AM »
April 23-28.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 26, 2020, 04:04:39 PM »
NSIDC Area vs Extent

Sea Ice Area loss is much higher than extent (especially at the beginning of the melt season).
Also most of the losses are in the peripheral seas - i.e. ice is disintegrating.

This is shown by graphing dispersion** i.e. extent divided by area. The higher the value, the less the structural integrity of the remaining ice.

Already the ice does not look in good shape
**I use ice dispersion rather than concentration (= area divided by extent)  I find it works better graphically.

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: April 23, 2020, 12:07:48 PM »
A big chunk broke off of A68.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 23, 2020, 09:28:26 AM »
April 17-22.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 18, 2020, 05:13:36 PM »
I took a look at Bremen ice pictures for this date for many years and I have not seen so much light purple - maybe expect for 2007 April but then the weakness was in other zones. Now the Beaufort , the ESS and the Laptev seem very very weak. 2020, 2016 and 2007 shown.

I know it is totally weather dependent but I think we will see a record this year

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 17, 2020, 09:30:24 AM »
April 10-16.


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 13, 2020, 10:39:56 AM »
April 5-12.


Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 11, 2020, 05:49:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 10th, 2020:
     13,198,416 km2, a drop of -49,793 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:42:49 PM »
nothing out of the ordinary
One thing that is different, or that I haven't seen before, is the large leads that have developed since feb15 making their way around north greenland so early in the season. With >80km/h winds forecast on apr1 we are likely to see them open up more.
Kaleschke SIC leads, oct1-mar29

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 24, 2020, 06:43:44 AM »
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic.  That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 10, 2020, 06:00:11 AM »
If the 2020 max happened on March 3rd, then 2020 is the year with the 10th lowest max.

Source: [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 08, 2020, 03:45:08 PM »
Your weekly updates. Ice drift map first for a change.

CAA is remarkably static. The low winter temperatures in this area are showing.

Polarstern continues its drift towards Fram after a day with handbrakes on.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: March 02, 2020, 09:45:38 AM »
I took a look at Bremen, picture attached for 20200301. I looked at the previous years. Never have we ever had so much "red" and "yellow" in the Kara-Laptev region. The ice there is likely very fractured and thin and will go poof extremely quickly come May...I attach 2016/03/01 for comparison

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: February 20, 2020, 06:48:52 PM »
We are now beyond insect decline - we are well into insect extinction.
Scientists' warning to humanity on insect extinctions

Current estimates suggest that insects may number 5.5 million species, with only one fifth of these named (Stork, 2018). The number of threatened and extinct insect species is woefully underestimated because of so many species being rare or undescribed. For example, the IUCN Red List (version 2019-2) only includes ca. 8400 species out of one million described, representing a possible 0.2% of all extant species (IUCN, 2019). However, it is likely that insect extinctions since the industrial era are around 5 to 10%, i.e. 250,000 to 500,000 species, based on estimates of 7% extinctions for land snails (Régnier et al., 2015). In total at least one million species are facing extinction in the coming decades, half of them being insects (IPBES, 2019).

It is not only their vast numbers, but the dependency of ecosystems and humanity on them, that makes the conservation of insect diversity critical for future generations. A major challenge now and in the coming years is to maintain and enhance the beneficial contributions of nature to all people. Insects are irreplaceable components in this challenge, as are other invertebrates and biodiversity in general.

Here we build on the manifesto World Scientists' Warning to Humanity, issued by the Union of Concerned Scientists (1992) and re-issued 25 years later by the Alliance of World Scientists (Ripple et al., 2017). The latter warning was signed by over 15,000 scientists and claims that humans are “pushing Earth's ecosystems beyond their capacities to support the web of life.” ( As a group of conservation biologists deeply concerned about the decline of insect populations worldwide, we here review what we know about the drivers of insect extinctions, their consequences, and how extinctions can negatively impact humanity. We end with an appeal for urgent action to decrease our knowledge deficits and curb insect extinctions.

We are causing insect extinctions
Irrespective of the precise trends and their spatial distribution, human activity is responsible for almost all current insect population declines and extinctions. Yet, in order to act, we first need to identify and quantify the different ways we are acting upon them, recognizing that much is still to be understood, and more often than not, several factors contribute synergistically to decline or extinction

Antarctica / Re: Getz Ice Shelf Discussion
« on: February 19, 2020, 09:29:13 PM »
Mini-Calving at Getz Ice Shelf.
This time I analysed the bay west of Wright Island. Several parts of the ice shelf calved (circled in yellow). The largest part is approx. 4 x 1 km. The resulting icebergs float along the coast in Amundsen Sea. Calving happened end January of 2020.
Nothing to worry too much about - probably the very normal calving in the austral summer...

Antarctica / Re: Getz Ice Shelf Discussion
« on: February 14, 2020, 07:43:56 PM »
Here's a map of Antarctica.  Getz is about midway between PIG-Thwaites and Ross.  (I had to look it up).

Antarctica / Getz Ice Shelf Discussion
« on: February 14, 2020, 07:02:49 PM »
Calving at the easternmost part of the Getz Ice Shelf.
It happened some weeks ago (most likely on Jan 30). A slim part (1 km deep, 15 km long) has separated from the ice shelf and floats now in Amundsen Sea.
A detailed analysis of this region between Jan 10, 2020 and Feb 13, 2020 showed in addition several mini- and microcalvings (all circled in yellow).

See attached picture.

[PS: Neven, we should close the Getz-B47 thread]

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 13, 2020, 05:55:18 AM »
Noh at blackagendareport counters media attacks on China:

"US corporate media, especially the Times, has turned a medical emergency into a racist campaign of ideological propaganda."

"none of the assertions are supported by the facts, and none of the interpretations bear scrutiny.  "

"western corporate media have chosen to go all out to criticize and demonize China"

"The NY Times suggests that Dr Li was a whistle blower, “sounding a warning.”  But Dr. Li was not a whistle blower, by any usual definition of the word.  He didn't notify the Chinese CDC or any public health organ.  He did not notify the hospital authorities.  He did not warn the public of wrongdoing, danger, or cover up. What he did do is share information with 7 school colleagues on 12/30 on a private messaging group.  (He also shared a photo of a confidential medical record). "

"The "whistle"--if we can call it that--had already been blown by others.  For example, doctor, Zhang Jixian, the director of respiratory and critical care medicine at Hubei Provincial Hospital, had officially notified the hospital on December 27th of an unusual cluster of viral cases, and the hospital had notified the city's' disease control center.  After further consultation on the 29th, the regional CDC was notified and had started full scale research and investigation. "

" the NY Times suggests that the authorities recognized and knew that the disease was dangerous, but covered it up anyway.  This is far from the truth at the time: there was little clear evidence that this was a dangerous or severe epidemic at the time of the outbreak. "

" The mere fact that the Chinese authorities were able to identify and take action on this so rapidly is indicates how competent, effective, and conscientious many of them were."

"Dr Li had no expertise in the subject matter, was not familiar with the situation, was not treating affected patients, and had no expertise to make any such claims: he was a ophthalmologist (not an epidemiologist, virologist, infectious disease specialist, internist, ICU specialist) ... There's no proof that he was privy to any specialized insider information that was being covered up; and the hospital was already taking all known precautions with patients at the time."

"Dr. Li was not ahead of the government. As we noted above regarding the timeline, the government (Wuhan disease authorities) had already been informed, and they delivered their own public warning the same day as Dr Li's sharing with his friends. There is little evidence to show that this was "forced" or "compelled" by the ophthalmologist’s message (as the NY Times has claimed)."

"the NY Times (and derivative media) has been savage and odious in exploiting every perceived mishap as a pretext to pile on and attack the Chinese people and the Chinese system"

"Were the responses perfect?  Most certainly not.  Were there gaps and lapses?  Absolutely, yes. Did the central and local government work hand-in-hand perfectly?  Most certainly not.   Was there discontent expressed on Weibo and other public fora?  Most certainly. "


Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 12, 2020, 07:48:40 PM »
From Stef Lhermitte on twitter:  an animation showing the retreat of the PIG calving front from 1973 to 2020, including the calving that happened a few days ago:

Consequences / Re: Temperate records (data)
« on: February 10, 2020, 03:56:08 PM »
Extreme temperatures around the world
The most reliable and updated collection of extreme temperatures on the WEB!

Cat 6, the Weather Underground blog, often [e.g., here] features Mr. Herrera's data and frequently identifies his work as the best in the world, as to maintaining and analyzing temperature records.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 05, 2020, 11:49:39 AM »
I do not trust the central authorities by default, but I doubt a quarantine of this magnitude can be successfully done in the US. The hospital was impressive. The data sharing could have been better but it seems to me that the basic statistics are about right. I haven't seen anything raising red flags.

The work that people on the ground, particularly hospital workers is truly commendable.

Consequences / Re: Chinese coronavirus
« on: February 05, 2020, 11:38:23 AM »
It is important and interesting to investigate what China has done right and what could have been improved. This is not China-bashing and to call it such is dishonest and unhelpful.

Obviously China has taken huge and painful steps to contain the outbreak and the rest of the world benefits from their sacrifices. It's remarkable how much resources China is able to concentrate when their machine starts rolling.

Also it is very likely, if not outright obvious, that initial response in Hubei could have been swifter. There is a lot of bureaucratic inertia as well as social pressure not to cry wolf in such circumstances. They probably only report the confirmed cases and local authorities are not throwing around numbers even if they see that confirming cases is difficult to the point that only a fraction gets reported.

I think reaction in the West would have been the opposite. Lot of focus and information from ground zero while everything would be done to keep trade, travel and the economy running as usual as possible.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 04, 2020, 01:34:17 PM »
January 22 - February 3.


Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 20, 2020, 12:02:47 PM »
Nanning, you were saying not feeling comfortable where you were living. That's why I wondered why you were not considering any other option and I mentioned some of them.

Where I live now I have all the problems that Sidd mentioned. But the paths are only for real 4x4 vehicles. And when rain or snow are hard, like now, you can only walk in or out, with a short cut of 2 hours walking (if you're fit) and 400m unevenness. No paid work possible, no shops, no TV, evasive satellite internet, telephone only with good weather... I haven't seen humans in two weeks now.

When I work for some of the locals I never charge them any money, they give me some food in exchange.

When I lost my eco-farm (because of a wrong marriage) that I had worked so hard that now is difficult to imagine (like having both joints of my right thumb broken and didn't stop working) I took your very same determination: I was going to live poor, BUT in close relation with nature and not depending on anyone. I don't have any incomes (my very old parents still send me a couple of hundreds for xmast or birthday) but I pay taxes. Taxes as if I were working just to have the chance of a decent pension in 9 years time. Taxes, as every other poor or not, to buy food (VAT) or any other item. I haven't and won't ask for any Government help.

"Reality is merely an illusion" and mine is feeling free.

I don't like the idea of owning land, but is a MUST if you want to live like I do. The price of the square meter is less than 0.5 euros, in part because you are advise that services do not work in a Natural Park. You have to look after yourself and the paths and there are very tight restrictions to change anything.

By the way, when I lived in Valencia I had an illegal Moroccan staying for two months at home. It was impossible to do something else for him so he left to Mallorca looking for any luck. An abandoned Russian sailor stayed with my aunt's family for two years. My cousin is working in Africa helping refugees since the 90s. I grew up in a healthy cooperative atmosphere.

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: January 20, 2020, 10:46:57 AM »
Yes thanks sidd. I expected something like that. But of course homeless people are not all the same.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 17, 2020, 01:20:13 PM »
UPDATE - Slowing of sea ice loss in late season - a speculation

In several of the posts by AbruptSLR are references to a process whereby increased surface and sub-surface melt on the ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers are/will cause an increased influx of freshwater at near freezing temperatures into the near-shore surrounding ocean, and it will form a layer that inhibits freezing / melting.

My speculation that belongs to me is that we are seeing this in the melting season pattern in the last 4-5 years since the extraordinary events of 2016, and even more so this year due to record high surface melting along much of the coastal fringe of Antarctica.

If you look at the first image - the graph, you will see that in the previous 4 years and the current year melting in the early part of the season until November is well above the average for the 5 years before that. This seems logical as AGW and warmer seas cause a quick melt of the thinner sea ice at lower latitudes.

But as the sea ice edge moves south closer to the continent, sea ice loss slows to below the average of 5 to 10 years ago, and is very pronounced in 2019-20 data. By December 24th, sea ice loss was 1 million km2 above average. On January 16th, just under 0.1 million km2 above the average for the year. i.e. Sea ice loss from Dec 24th to January 19th was 0.9 million below average.

If you look at the surface ice melt on the graph and map attached, you will see that this has been at record levels this year, starting in November. Much of this melt of very cold freshwater at the continent's edge will have exited to the ocean. Has this significantly slowed further sea ice loss?

AbrupSLR has highlighted research that suggests that rather than being a -ve feedback, the result (including subsurface melt) is to trap incoming deeper warmer water to well below the ocean surface, and thus can attack the ice shelves and marine terminating glaciers from beneath. There are science papers - see previous posts - that suggest this could lead to significantly increased ice mass loss and thus accelerated sea level rise.

The possible recovery in sea ice extent (good?) could be a +ve feedback to accelerated sea level rise (bad)

One might see a confrontation in the Southern Ocean between cooling at high latitudes and warmth heading south from lower latitudes

Surface melt link....

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 17, 2020, 11:44:32 AM »
I was reading this last week, seems pretty relevant

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