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Messages - vox_mundi

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The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: April 21, 2019, 03:19:54 PM »
A metaphor of hope for our troubled future:

Bees living on Notre-Dame cathedral roof survive blaze

""I was incredibly sad about Notre-Dame because it's such a beautiful building," Mr Géant said in an interview with CNN.

"But to hear there is life when it comes to the bees, that's just wonderful.""

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: April 15, 2019, 07:17:51 AM »
This is a GIF showing a perfect storm over Nares Strait on 11. and 12. 04.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: April 15, 2019, 07:09:40 AM »
This is a GIF showing the Beaufort Sea.

You can see beautifully how the wind moves the ice, causing a spiral pattern.

Edit: The gyre below is also contributing to the movement.

(Click to play)

For me it's the anecdotal stories. I think I am probably one of the least ( formally )educated people on this forum but I have, like any other human, stories to tell. Watching as the ocean has changed over my lifetime as a commercial diver and fisherman gives me an opportunity to tell a unique story. I have watched as the abalone resources have , for the most part , collapsed. The starfish and the sea urchins also succumbing to disease brought on by the stress of increased ocean heat. My own guilt in knowing that the fuel I have used to pursue a fishing career has contributed to the death and mayhem now all around me.
 My transition to farming also comes with stories of decline. The 108 F heatwave that last year killed all the fledgling swallows in their nests and this years abandoned nesting  colony that had returned every one of the last twenty years till now. The disappearance of the Phoebes that also shared my farm with me for twenty years, the noticeable declines in insects. The loss of so many pines and oaks during our eight year drought. 
 The struggles against what appear to be irreversible changes. Tragic losses and what passes for my feeble attempts to forestall future horrors yet unseen. My stories, our stories , and the emotional context that might inspire others  to look a little deeper , fight a little harder,  and on occasion shed tears over our shared losses.   

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: April 10, 2019, 09:14:38 AM »
Potentially good news there Vox!

By eating less meat and paying farmers to give land over to nature I think we humans can really significantly lessen the burden on insects, indeed on all sorts of creatures. All around where I live is open moorland (see photo), whose only agricultural value is for grazing a small number of sheep - yet those sheep mean there are no trees and very little else for miles at a time. Sheep farming in such areas (Im in the UK by the way) is not profitable and is subsidised heavily by the government; I do wonder whether some farmers might be willing to be paid instead to oversee the restoration of this land?

There seems to be an attachment to preserving things "as they are" in nature orgaisations here, rather than seeing that the land is in a bad state which is not natural.

Trees, birds, animals, insects. It can be done I'm sure. Rewilding needs to happen.

storm severity does not exclude rainfall as a measure .. and why clutter up an informative thread with arguements about size .. there are other places for such ... b.c.

Tornados. What a nice cherry. Is that all you do KkK? Pick cherries and deal uncertainties.

Everything in the media seems to be "historic" these days.  They respond as if this never happened before.  This region is well known for these types of storms - even into May.

I know you read this forum, Kat. I know you do read that there are record-breaking climate news all around the world. You do know that due to climate change storms are getting stronger.

So, may i ask what you mean exactly? Is there a special reason why you doubt the article?

Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: April 03, 2019, 07:45:59 AM »
Or, just don't execute people.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: April 02, 2019, 09:16:17 PM »
DOOMED!!! WE ARE ALL DOOMED !!!!                    (perhaps not)
Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Posted on 1 April 2019 by scaddenp

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 27, 2019, 08:06:17 PM »
US Air Force: We Need $5 Billion To Fix Weather-Damaged Bases
The U.S. Air Force says it needs nearly $5 billion over the next three years to rebuild bases in Florida and Nebraska severely damaged by weather in the past six months.

If it does not receive $1.2 billion of those funds by June for repairs at Tyndall Air Force Base and Offutt Air Force Base, service officials warned they would be forced to cut projects at bases in 18 states and cancel 18,000 pilot training hours.
Caught by surprise

The damage to both bases appears to have caught the military by surprise. The Pentagon’s widely criticized climate-impact report for 2019 listed Offutt as a base with climate-related vulnerabilities, but only for drought, and said there was no current or potential risk of recurrent flooding. While the report mentioned Tyndall in its text, the base did not appear in the list of at-risk facilities. ...

The Conversation No One Knows How to Have

Interesting to see how abrupt climate change is entering the common discussion without being called what it is.

Today, my fiance and one of my son's teachers were discussing the flooding disaster here in Nebraska. One of them were talking about how bad it was and that people outside of Nebraska and Iowa just do not understand the significance of the damage to food and agriculture that had occurred from the flooding.

This seems to be true. And it may be even non-farmers living in this region do not fully appreciate how bad it is (although it's easier to pay attention and know someone who does). But this sh*t is bad. From the mass destruction of infrastructure and private equipment to the losses of grains both stored from last year sitting out and spoiling in polluted water and more rain. And parts of the region may see more snow and rain Friday-Saturday. But the inability to plant this year as well...eroded soils, polluted soils, soil covered in sand from rivers. In many cases, because of melting of the previously frozen soil with the mass melting and runoff, has now turned to muddy mush. And this is literally one part of the world. Let's not forget all the recent and current disasters impacting our world.

People who say that "this has happened before" because water happened to rise over the bank of a river which flooded before anger me. "The climate is always changing" others say. "We don't know whether this is climate change".

There's denial...blaming our increasingly energetic, steroid-juiced destabilizing climate with more and more explosive extremes on "poor infrastructure" or "building in the wrong places" or "variability"...and then there's simply the equivalent of looking at a terminally ill patient straight in the eye and telling them to get over it, take some meds and walk it off. It's to the point of like..."what??" When we call the variability of a cataclysmic sh*tshow right before our very eyes killing our fellow peoples and species normal, we've gone from denial and bargaining to plain absurdity in the face of the climate and ecological destruction monsters we have released...

Read the rest here:

Even the dismal science is under attack.

From the Huffington Post:

Donald Trump Just Picked A Laughingstock For A Huge Federal Reserve Job
Stephen Moore is a joke in the economics profession.

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: March 22, 2019, 08:28:14 PM »

Early results suggest ECS values from some of the new CMIP6 climate models are higher than previous estimates, with early numbers being reported between 2.8C (pdf) and 5.8C. This compares with the previous coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which reported values between 2.1C to 4.7C. The IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5) assessed ECS to be “likely” in the range 1.5C to 4.5C and “very unlikely” greater than 6C. (These terms are defined using the IPCC methodology.)

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 22, 2019, 05:12:07 AM »
"If this pattern persists, it may signal a larger problem,"

No shit. Guess what, Sherlock, it's gonna not only persist, but get worse.

Now as to :

"The flooding surrounded fuel tanks at Offutt Air Force Base and tipped over one, which military officials said was empty and had been decommissioned"

These people lie and lie and lie. I deal with those large oil tanks. Even when empty there is sludge in the bottom, toxic, the worst stuff settles out during operation. Thats why its impossible to sell a fuel oil tank until you clean out the sludge, and doing that is usually worth more than the tank at end of life. Now that tank in the picture on its side looks about 5-10Kgallon, i guarantee there was 500-1000 gallon of sludge in the bottom. When that thing floats up and tips over it ripped all the plumbing out, and probably popped a weld or two when it tipped. All that sludge is in the Missouri.

Now take a look at the walls around the tanks. Thats the spill containment. When you put a big tank in you got to build a retaining wall round it, enuf to retain spill of all tank contents. Now you can see that the two tanks  still standing also have spill containment full of water.

Now the inside of those spill containments at large facilities are pretty gross places. Place like Offut, been goin for decades, that floor of that spill containment had decades of contaminant from millions of little spills over the long years. All that is in the river.

My tax dollars at play.


The first linked Barron's article, explains that the information/guidance that consensus climate scientists have managed to convey to business, makes those businesses conclude that 'it still makes financial sense to burn the globe".  As the article indicates this leads some people to conclude that we are headed to a 'climate Minsky moment', comparable to the 2008 financial collapses where a few 'outlier' warnings (Minsky in the case of the market and Hansen in the case of climate) were discounted by the consensus which lead to a collapse (in 2008 for the economy and still unfolding for the climate).  It seems clear to me that consensus climate science has conveyed a message to the markets that climate change impacts will unfold so slowly that it makes good financial sense for business people to continue to game the market.  Clearly, climate scientists need to stop erring on the side of least drama, and instead they need to convey clearer information about the magnitude and the time-scale of our current climate risks (which are unfolding in real time in front of our eyes):

Title: "It Still Makes Financial Sense to Burn the Globe"

Extract: "It still makes good financial sense to burn the globe, although we know that we will have to pay a steep price for it."

See also:

Title: "Minsky moment"

Extract: "The term was coined by Paul McCulley of PIMCO in 1998, to describe the 1998 Russian financial crisis, and was named after economist Dr. Hyman Minsky, who noted that bankers, traders, and other financiers periodically played the role of arsonists, setting the entire economy ablaze. Minsky opposed the deregulation that characterized the 1980s."

Title: "Mark Carney warns of climate change threat to financial system"

Extract: "The governor of the Bank of England has warned of the “catastrophic impact” climate change could have for the financial system unless firms do more to disclose their vulnerabilities."

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 18, 2019, 06:33:19 AM »

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: March 17, 2019, 05:02:31 PM »
Nile shipwreck discovery proves Herodotus right – after 2,469 years

In the fifth century BC, the Greek historian Herodotus visited Egypt and wrote of unusual river boats on the Nile. Twenty-three lines of his Historia, the ancient world’s first great narrative history, are devoted to the intricate description of the construction of a “baris”.

For centuries, scholars have argued over his account because there was no archaeological evidence that such ships ever existed. Now there is. A “fabulously preserved” wreck in the waters around the sunken port city of Thonis-Heracleion has revealed just how accurate the historian was.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 15, 2019, 08:22:45 PM »
Mercator 0m salinity, jan1-mar14, used here to show current and possible upwelling along the Alaskan coast from Chukchi to Beaufort.
Worldview viirsbt15n, mar10-14 confirming.
FOOW warm water coming back up to haunt us perhaps

edit: forgot salinity scale

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 14, 2019, 02:51:31 PM »

The Toxic Consequences of America’s Plastics Boom

Thanks to fracking, petrochemicals giants are poised to make the plastic pollution crisis much, much worse.

Companies are investing $65 billion to dramatically expand plastics production in the United States, and more than 333 petrochemical projects are underway or newly completed, including brand-new facilities, expansions of existing plants, vast networks of pipelines, and shipping infrastructure. This is a sharp reversal of fortune for American plastics manufacturers. Just over a decade ago, major plastics makers shed tens of thousands of jobs as cheaper operating costs in Asia and the Middle East lured production overseas. Now, thanks to the fracking revolution, producing plastic has become radically cheaper in the United States, leading to a glut of raw materials for its creation. The economic winds have shifted so profoundly that petrochemical companies have declared a “renaissance” in American plastics manufacturing. In turn, plastic is becoming an increasingly important source of profit for Big Oil, providing yet another reason to drill in the face of climate change.


<during Trumps may 2017 Saudi Arabia visit>
Meanwhile, in a mint-and-gold-colored room within the Saudi royal court, executives struck their own deals. Among them were Darren Woods, the CEO and chairman of ExxonMobil, and Yousef Al-Benyan, CEO of the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), one of the world’s largest producers of petrochemicals. With Trump, Saudi King Salman, and then–US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (a former Exxon CEO) looking on, Woods and Al-Benyan shook hands on a joint venture to build what will be the largest plastics facility of its kind, on Texas’s Gulf Coast.


Plotted on a map, the rectangle of land where Exxon plans to build is nearly as large as Portland and about twice the size of neighboring Gregory, a low-income, largely Hispanic community.


According to Exxon’s requested air permit, the facility will emit sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides, which can combine to form ozone smog; carcinogens, including benzene, formaldehyde, and butadiene; and other particulate matter. The health risks of these emissions include eye and throat irritation, respiratory problems, and headaches, as well as nose bleeds at low levels and, at high levels, more serious damage to vital organs and the central nervous system.


Now, the Texas Campaign for the Environment and the Sierra Club, working on behalf of Portland and Gregory residents, are contesting the air-quality permits that Exxon requested from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Summerlin is not naive about the prospects of this effort: The commission is notoriously friendly to industry and, as far as Summerlin knows, has never denied a permit


All of these new facilities will require water; Exxon’s cracker alone will consume 20 to 25 million gallons per day, more than all the water currently used each day in San Patricio County’s water district. But the area is prone to drought. The Port of Corpus Christi has plans to build a seawater-desalination plant on Harbor Island near Port Aransas, which could lead to discharges of extremely salty water back into the bays that serve as nurseries for shrimp and fish. The development is also vulnerable to hurricanes. When Hurricane Harvey swept across Houston in 2017, many chemical plants shut down, releasing an estimated 1 million pounds of excess toxic emissions that drifted into neighboring communities.

Just some quotes from a long and good (and rather depressing) article.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 12, 2019, 02:10:34 PM »
We choose to go green...We choose to go green in the upcoming decades and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are necessary.

The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 08, 2019, 02:15:07 PM »
DeSmog published a story this week from the Climate Investigations Center that touches on an interesting angle that’s emerging in the climate world as kids lead the way.

The article describes a conference last month at Brown University that featured a 90-minute panel built around a recent study in Nature Climate Change showing how decades of concerted misinformation played a key role in the current climate of climate denial. The event was convened by Brown’s Climate Development Lab. Brown students at the lab recently compiled and published a report giving the backstory on a dozen climate denial coalitions.

Some are long gone, like the Global Climate Coalition, others are still very much alive, like the Cooler Heads Coalition, which counts Trump advisors Myron Ebell and Steve Milloy among its members.

But even some of the ones that are no longer operational, like the Information Council on the Environment, which was funded by the Western Fuels Association and the Edison Electric Institute, still impact the current discourse.

For example, ICE’s Pat Michaels and Sherwood Idso have both gone on to a long and lucrative fossil-fuel-funded denial career. ICE’s initial PR campaign goal to “reposition global warming as theory (not fact)” is at the core of President Trump’s ongoing attempts to attack climate science with a “red team” of deniers drawn from these sorts of coalitions.


As pundits and deniers increasingly chide children for daring to speak out about the state of our planet, remember that these kids are speaking out against a misinformation machine that’s older than they are. For the students who put together this report, the fact that there’s a well-funded, widespread propaganda effort to protect polluters at the public expense isn’t some new revelation–it’s simply a fact of life.

Just like how no one born since February 1985 has ever experienced a month in which the global temperature has dipped below the 20th century average, this report shows that no one under 30 has lived in a world free from the fossil fuel industry’s misinformation campaign.

Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: March 02, 2019, 05:08:14 PM »
4 years of @ThwaitesGlacier ice tongue from @CopernicusEU #sentinel1 satellite imagery showing how this chaotic ice tongue has become a collection of icebergs glued together by sea ice.

Link >>

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 01, 2019, 01:19:48 PM »
The Shells of Wild Sea Butterflies Are Already Dissolving

This long-predicted outcome of ocean acidification experiments has started showing up in the wild.

For more than a decade, laboratory studies and models have warned of the vulnerability of pteropods—tiny sea snails also known as sea butterflies—to ocean acidification. Now those predictions have escaped the lab. From the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea to the Beaufort Sea, scientists are finding pteropods with dissolved shells. Nina Bednarsek, a biogeochemist with the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, recently presented some of these findings at the Alaska Marine Science Symposium.


The pteropod Bednarsek studies, Limacina helicina, is more than just the proverbial canary in the coal mine. One of only two species of pteropod to live in high-latitude waters, this particular species is abundant and critical to Arctic food webs, often dominating zooplankton communities and feeding everything from pink salmon to whales.

Pteropods can patch their damaged shells, but at a cost, Bednarsek explains. “The pteropods are a bit more physiologically compromised—not really feeling very well.” More acidic water triggers stress responses in the pteropods, as well as sucking energy to rebuild their shells. Stressed out pteropods accumulate free radicals, which decompose their lipids and fatty acids. And since these lipids and fatty acids are essential nutrients for juvenile fishes, corroded pteropods make a poor meal, compromising the health of other animals in the food chain.


Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 28, 2019, 08:06:27 AM »
fear seperates .. love unites .. love is far more useful .. love your fellow man and you will care for him too .. and work toward everyone's wellbeing .. b.c.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: February 18, 2019, 02:34:32 PM »
A Forest Garden With 500 Edible Plants Could Lead to a Sustainable Future

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: February 13, 2019, 11:19:38 AM »
G-objects may have come from supermassive black hole, study reports

Strange celestial structures that look like dust clouds but act like stars may have been created by the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, according to unpublished research set to be presented at the American Astronomical Society.

Scientists have spent a lot of time studying the odd bodies -- known as G-objects -- in order to figure out how they operate. In the recent analysis, researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles discovered three additions to the class and may have shed light on how the odd objects first formed.

Scientists first noticed two of the objects in 2004 and 2012. Further study revealed the bodies, which produce red light and appear to be quite cool, are likely surrounded by dust.

However, the first two G-objects have wandered near the Milky Way's supermassive black hole without being torn apart. As a result, they have to be denser than a dust cloud. That property is why scientists believe they are actually stars surrounded by gas.

"They're weird because they are not gas nebulae, they're not stars, so we think they're something in the middle, a stellar object surrounded by gas and dust," study author Anna Ciurlo, an astronomer at the University of California Los Angeles, told Newsweek, "like a star that's been puffed up."

As the objects sit so close to the black hole, astronomers also believe that is where they came from. Previous research suggests black holes can encourage closely-paired stars to collide more quickly than they would normally. It is possible such collisions create G-objects.

and more on

A interesting new class of objects.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: January 20, 2019, 10:16:11 AM »
What 88 Bee Genomes and 10 Years of Studying Apples Tell Us About the Future of Pollinators

The team surveyed bees in 27 orchards in New York for over 10 years, identifying over 8,700 individual bees. We’re not talking domesticated honey bees — they found an amazing 88 different species of wild native bees.

Over those years, they watched the landscapes around the orchards become more and more cultivated. Natural spaces like woodlands were replaced by alfalfa, corn and soybeans. And they saw fewer and fewer bee species in the orchards as the habitat around them disappeared.

Then they sequenced the genomes of all the species to make a phylogeny — an evolutionary family tree — to see how related the different bees were. They learned that the species that disappeared weren’t a random pick from the 88. Instead, the species lost were closely related to one another. Likewise, the species left behind were closely related to one another. Habitat losses had led to entire branches of the tree of life being pruned away — meaning phylogenetic diversity took a major hit.

The researchers estimate that for every 10 percent of land area that gets converted to agriculture, 35 million years of evolutionary history are lost from the bee community.


They found that the number of bee species didn’t matter for pollination. But the phylogenetic diversity did. Their giant dataset allowed them to learn that although more agriculture in the landscape decreases both, the latter is what really hurts the fruit. Cutting away whole branches from the tree of life hurts the whole ecosystem.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 18, 2019, 10:37:25 PM »
A bit off topic, and I may sound like bbr, but I need to ask. Has anyone seen new EC run for the USA. What a run!!  There is a -28C negative anomaly, and -28C temp 850hPa, as far south as Huntsville AL. For people in Europe reading this, that's much further south than Athens or Gibraltar (38vs36vs34 latitude degrees).  And I'm confident by looking at how large the sub -28C field is, there is even colder air in the middle of it (Minnesota for example), but EC "range" (on meteociel at least) stretches only to -28C.

GFS 12z has greater than -20C anomaly over Hudson in the middle of Winter, and -40C temp850hPa on US-Canada border.

I'm sorry for many photos and a long post, but this really may be 1 in a decade night ( both models have some ridiculous numbers at the same time, especially EC because it's so far south)

I'm posting now, because obviously I don't think it will come true.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 05, 2019, 04:31:03 PM »
Polarview image north west of Svalbard jan5 showing some of the area of warm atlantic water upwelling and what may be evidence of surface currents.

Nullschool version of surface currents jan5.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 30, 2018, 07:19:39 AM »
And then there are those who present cherry-picked data from the coldest summers of the past century, and try to pass them off as science. Why not include data from the entire century?  I suspect it was because the earlier summers were much hotter, and it would ruin your trend.  Check out the historical heat wave index:

Well, there are different kinds of cherry-picking one can do.  It helps to read scientific reports that will report different measures of summer heat.  Attached is figure 2.3 from p. 39 of:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate
Published by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

The first graph is shown in that page, but not the 2nd and 3rd, which provide a more nuanced picture.  That whole chapter of the cited report is relevant here.

Yes, during the Great Depression, the US had some hot summers.  I would guess, offhand, reduced sulfate emissions from reduced industrial coal use may be to blame.  The world may be re-visiting this phenomenon as more parts of the globe act to reduce coal pollution.

Another form of cherry-picking is to look at US-only summer temperatures.  If one examines summer temperature trends in the UK and rest of Europe, the 1930s were not so exceptional, while the contemporary worrisome trend is quite pronounced.  See, for example, the second attachment, from:

So, indeed, cherry-picking is to be carefully avoided.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 10, 2018, 12:20:22 AM »
The world’s seabirds are being pushed to the brink of extinction by the fishing industry which is competing with them for food, a new study has warned.

Populations have dropped by up to 70 per cent since the middle of the 20th century, experts said.

Nearly half of the world's fishing fleet is comprised of Chinese vessels:

The Chinese government has given $28 billion in subsidies over the last four years to its fishing fleet....

China's super trawlers are targeting the seas in North West Pacific, South America and Western Africa.

Not only are they destroying fish stocks, but they are also wiping out poorer subsistent communities...

There is little awareness of sustainability in China's public and conservationists say education campaigns are desperately needed.

Human overpopulation is an assault on every component of the earth's systems.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2018, 03:52:21 PM »
A comparison of Chukchi ice extent from 2015-2018, nov1-24 using amsr2-uhh.
The main ice edge for each year from 2015-2017 has been extracted using edge detect in imagej, then splitting the colour channels to remove some of the concentration data, so it should be seen only as a rough comparison.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 23, 2018, 08:01:18 PM »
Links to papers posted earlier in this thread, to save you the time of looking for them.,12.msg130821.html#msg130821,12.msg126031.html#msg126031,12.msg131768.html#msg131768,12.msg132298.html#msg132298

Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, published 22 June 2017.

And here is a link to my methane archive so you can see how this progressed over the years to where we are now.  Being able to see where we were 2 years ago, 5 years ago, 10 years ago, provides an important perspective, allowing you to see just how fast and dramatically this has accelerated.

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: November 21, 2018, 05:49:47 PM »
The Ice Island A68-A has rotated about 115º in 6 months, but the pivot end hasn't moved diddlysquat. 

The largest iceberg in the area (current, lower, image) has, in the meantime, moved about 125 km northwards, squeezing through what I'll call an ice-strait.  (1st image from a May 18 post by johnm33 [conveniently at the top of this thread's page 7]; 2nd image from PolarView on November 20.) 

I'm going to postulate, now, that intermittent grounding keeps A68-A where it is; no point is clearly 'actually' stuck in one place for any length of time.  A GIF covering multiple images might show if any spot does get stuck (becoming a fixed (if temporary) pivot point).

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 12, 2018, 02:50:23 PM »
Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.

It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf. 

Or is that just too damn radical?

In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?

Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.

No. I don´t agree at all.

I have a daughter living on north Los Angeles and I am concerned that Woolsey Fire could spread into Santa Monica. Why can we think that more destruction is necessary? Or why should we wish for a new lowest record on ASI, and think that we have to wait for it to happen?

The situation is bad enough. I understand that it has been exhausting all the effort of creating a Forum and be concerned all these years. But we cannot quit, and we cannot think that it is necessary to have more damage.

We must spread our point of view. We must make summaries of what it has happened and continue fighting to make governments and general public react against AGW.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 09, 2018, 01:33:57 AM »
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/8/18, 5:12 PM
#CampFire if we go off of the heat signature, know fire locations it's probably close to 40K acres. PIO just now said 17K acres, so this map may not be far off. [ Image below.]
- #CampFire Clark x/Skyway units advising they're running out of water, need water tenders. They have 150 people in a building with several buildings and a gas station on fire next to it.
- #CampFire sending strike teams of engines to help, 10 engines. Clark x/Skyway.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 02, 2018, 12:48:07 PM »
Hi I am a longtime lurker. Inspired by a post on Jason Box's Twitter feed I was one of the 1000 people at the Declaration of Rebellion for Extinction Rebellion on Wednesday. It was a glorious autumn day and I felt privileged to be at the start of something so significant.


The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: October 14, 2018, 08:50:31 PM »
While the linked research confirms that a single concrete reality does not exist; HIOTTOE's timelessly evolved free-will information network remains plausible as it posits that free-will creates a constantly changing timeless illusion of reality (rupa):

Title: "Famous Experiment Dooms Alternative to Quantum Weirdness"

Extract: "Oil droplets guided by “pilot waves” have failed to reproduce the results of the quantum double-slit experiment, crushing a century-old dream that there exists a single, concrete reality."

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 12, 2018, 01:50:52 PM »
The second video in this article has an amazing extended section of winds on the ground during the eyewall.

Video from the hurricane hunter plane:
Michael at landfall. The normal "stadium effect" was more like a cylinder, a straight vertical wall 50K ft high. Saw 175 mph flight level winds, ~155 mph at surface. Entered eyewall at 10K ft, ended up in eye down at 8K! Need another tweet to explain what that felt like… “

The four Category 4 U.S. #hurricane landfalls in less than 14 months. #HurricaneMichael #Michael
Image below.

Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 07, 2018, 03:05:33 PM »
And a Sentinel 1 animation, showing the event took place between 24-30 September.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 01, 2018, 11:50:54 PM »
A new visualization tool called PolarGlobe was just released.
PolarGlobe is a large-scale, web-based four-dimensional visualization tool allowing climate data access to anyone with an internet connection. It’s capable of illustrating changes in the atmosphere vividly in real time.

Designed specifically for polar scientists seeking to understand the ice caps, the tool is also useful for high school science teachers and weather fanatics.

The technology is called m-cubed: “Multi-dimensional, multi-faceted, multi-variate.”

Historical data in the tool goes back to 2010. Current data is updated every six hours. The tool uses artificial intelligence and machine learning so it continues to learn on its own as new data is generated.

It’s a huge amount of data: 350 terabytes

Maybe someone will find it useful in predicting polar ice conditions.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 27, 2018, 07:20:50 PM »
Prepare for 10 Feet [3.1 m] of Sea Level Rise, California Commission Tells Coastal Cities
California coastal cities should be prepared for the possibility that oceans will rise more than 10 feet by 2100 and submerge parts of beach towns, the state Coastal Commission warns in new draft guidance.

The powerful agency, which oversees most development along 1,100 miles of coast, will consider approving the guidance this fall. A staff report recommending the changes was released last week.

Earlier commission guidance put top sea-level rise at 6 feet by 2100. But according to the new report, there’s the “potential for rapid ice loss to result in an extreme scenario of 10.2 feet of sea level rise” by the end of the century. ...

The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: March 27, 2018, 11:42:18 PM »
The threats of climate change have been evident since at least the late 1970's (& to people like POTUS since at least the mid-1960's); nevertheless, insufficient progress has been made in this fight, largely due to 'Analysis Paralysis' on the part of climate scientists.  For instance, after decades of research, the uncertainty range for climate sensitivity reported in AR5 is actually larger than that reported in FAR (First Assessment Report).

As BAU-thinking got us into our current mess, on the concept that it is necessary to fight fire with fire, I provide the linked Forbes article on how to overcome the 'Analysis Paralysis' of decision-making.  For climate scientists to overcome their 'analysis paralysis' I recommend (using the logic of the article) that climate scientists:

1. Set a 'drop dead' date:  The Paris Agreement says that the signatory states will strive limit GMSTA to 1.5C above pre-industrial.  Climate scientist should make it very clear to the public that the decision makers will miss this reasonable goal, without the use of geoengineering which the climate scientists recommend not be implemented.

2. Get a sanity check: The current rate of anthropogenic radiative forcing is about 100-times faster than during the PETM.  Thus climate scientists should publically emphasize only the projections from the highest-performance twenty to thirty ESMs that have been calibrated to observed hyperthermal event paleodata.  I note that such high-performance ESMs exhibit climate sensitivities that are significantly higher than the mean ECS value cited in AR5.

3. Curb your curiosity: Rather than losing view of the forest due to the presence of too many trees, climate scientists should adopt a limit state characterization of climate parameters (like: ECS & GMTA) including a maximum credible limit state case.

4. Recognize that the moons will never align:  As climate change projections are too complex to be able understood with a high degree of certainty, climate scientists should adopt the 'Precautionary Principle' when interpreting the output from the high-performance ESMs.

5. Stair step your decisions:  As our understanding of climate science keeps changing; climate scientists should regularly update their projections and should publically discuss cases where 'fat-tailed' risks are actually realized.

Title: "How To Overcome The 'Analysis Paralysis' Of Decision-Making"

Extract: "Set a 'drop dead' date.

Get a sanity check.

Curb your curiosity.

Recognize that the moons will never align.

Stair step your decisions.

Decisions are never final for the simple fact that change is never absolute.  Rather, change is ongoing."

The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: March 04, 2018, 04:54:05 AM »
I read up a bit on Honduras, and was looking for evidence that the US intervened.

I could not find any, and it looks like that is because the US did NOT intervene.

Opposition parties blame the US (and Clinton specifically) for NOT denouncing the 2009 coup (or not denouncing it strong enough).
And they blame the US (and Clinton specifically) for NOT cutting off all aid to Honduras (including humanitarian aid).
And they blame the US for NOT denouncing the elections that followed.
And they blame the US (and Clinton specifically) for NOT denouncing the murder of Berta Caceres strong enough.

So if the US intervenes in another country it is blamed.
And if it doesn't intervene, it is also blamed.

The US can't do anything right, can it ?

<snip, N.> How can you say shit like this on THE DAY Berta Cáceres was murdered by AMERICAN TRAINED ASSASSINS. Denounce? DENOUNCE ENOUGH? What the fuck are you talking about? A world renowned environmentalist was killed by a hit squad.  What is wrong with you? Who are you defending at this point?

Do not read just "a bit". READ A LOT. you are obviously struggling to understand the deep and complex implications of American imperialism

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