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Messages - vox_mundi

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1
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: February 13, 2019, 11:19:38 AM »
G-objects may have come from supermassive black hole, study reports

Strange celestial structures that look like dust clouds but act like stars may have been created by the supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, according to unpublished research set to be presented at the American Astronomical Society.

Scientists have spent a lot of time studying the odd bodies -- known as G-objects -- in order to figure out how they operate. In the recent analysis, researchers from the University of California, Los Angeles discovered three additions to the class and may have shed light on how the odd objects first formed.

Scientists first noticed two of the objects in 2004 and 2012. Further study revealed the bodies, which produce red light and appear to be quite cool, are likely surrounded by dust.

However, the first two G-objects have wandered near the Milky Way's supermassive black hole without being torn apart. As a result, they have to be denser than a dust cloud. That property is why scientists believe they are actually stars surrounded by gas.

"They're weird because they are not gas nebulae, they're not stars, so we think they're something in the middle, a stellar object surrounded by gas and dust," study author Anna Ciurlo, an astronomer at the University of California Los Angeles, told Newsweek, "like a star that's been puffed up."

As the objects sit so close to the black hole, astronomers also believe that is where they came from. Previous research suggests black holes can encourage closely-paired stars to collide more quickly than they would normally. It is possible such collisions create G-objects.

and more on
https://thespacereporter.com/article.php?n=g-objects-may-have-come-from-supermassive-black-hole-study-reports&id=151063

A interesting new class of objects.

2
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: January 20, 2019, 10:16:11 AM »
What 88 Bee Genomes and 10 Years of Studying Apples Tell Us About the Future of Pollinators


The team surveyed bees in 27 orchards in New York for over 10 years, identifying over 8,700 individual bees. We’re not talking domesticated honey bees — they found an amazing 88 different species of wild native bees.

Over those years, they watched the landscapes around the orchards become more and more cultivated. Natural spaces like woodlands were replaced by alfalfa, corn and soybeans. And they saw fewer and fewer bee species in the orchards as the habitat around them disappeared.

Then they sequenced the genomes of all the species to make a phylogeny — an evolutionary family tree — to see how related the different bees were. They learned that the species that disappeared weren’t a random pick from the 88. Instead, the species lost were closely related to one another. Likewise, the species left behind were closely related to one another. Habitat losses had led to entire branches of the tree of life being pruned away — meaning phylogenetic diversity took a major hit.

The researchers estimate that for every 10 percent of land area that gets converted to agriculture, 35 million years of evolutionary history are lost from the bee community.

...

They found that the number of bee species didn’t matter for pollination. But the phylogenetic diversity did. Their giant dataset allowed them to learn that although more agriculture in the landscape decreases both, the latter is what really hurts the fruit. Cutting away whole branches from the tree of life hurts the whole ecosystem.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/d-brief/2019/01/18/bees-diversity-loss-pollinators-death/#.XEQvF1xKjcs

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: January 18, 2019, 10:37:25 PM »
A bit off topic, and I may sound like bbr, but I need to ask. Has anyone seen new EC run for the USA. What a run!!  There is a -28C negative anomaly, and -28C temp 850hPa, as far south as Huntsville AL. For people in Europe reading this, that's much further south than Athens or Gibraltar (38vs36vs34 latitude degrees).  And I'm confident by looking at how large the sub -28C field is, there is even colder air in the middle of it (Minnesota for example), but EC "range" (on meteociel at least) stretches only to -28C.




GFS 12z has greater than -20C anomaly over Hudson in the middle of Winter, and -40C temp850hPa on US-Canada border.



I'm sorry for many photos and a long post, but this really may be 1 in a decade night ( both models have some ridiculous numbers at the same time, especially EC because it's so far south)

I'm posting now, because obviously I don't think it will come true.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 05, 2019, 04:31:03 PM »
Polarview image north west of Svalbard jan5 showing some of the area of warm atlantic water upwelling and what may be evidence of surface currents.

Nullschool version of surface currents jan5.

5
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 30, 2018, 07:19:39 AM »
And then there are those who present cherry-picked data from the coldest summers of the past century, and try to pass them off as science. Why not include data from the entire century?  I suspect it was because the earlier summers were much hotter, and it would ruin your trend.  Check out the historical heat wave index:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.ancestry.com/cm/summer-scorchers-americas-9-worst-heat-waves-ever-recorded/amp/

Well, there are different kinds of cherry-picking one can do.  It helps to read scientific reports that will report different measures of summer heat.  Attached is figure 2.3 from p. 39 of:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate
Published by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
https://downloads.globalchange.gov/sap/sap3-3/sap3-3-final-all.pdf

The first graph is shown in that Ancestry.com page, but not the 2nd and 3rd, which provide a more nuanced picture.  That whole chapter of the cited report is relevant here.

Yes, during the Great Depression, the US had some hot summers.  I would guess, offhand, reduced sulfate emissions from reduced industrial coal use may be to blame.  The world may be re-visiting this phenomenon as more parts of the globe act to reduce coal pollution.

Another form of cherry-picking is to look at US-only summer temperatures.  If one examines summer temperature trends in the UK and rest of Europe, the 1930s were not so exceptional, while the contemporary worrisome trend is quite pronounced.  See, for example, the second attachment, from:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

So, indeed, cherry-picking is to be carefully avoided.

6
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 10, 2018, 12:20:22 AM »
Quote
The world’s seabirds are being pushed to the brink of extinction by the fishing industry which is competing with them for food, a new study has warned.

Populations have dropped by up to 70 per cent since the middle of the 20th century, experts said.


https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/seabirds-decline-population-fishing-industry-pollution-climate-change-birds-puffins-a8670736.html?fbclid=IwAR24zLjsrjlVPxdgCsDYZ4KtMdkQW7kXzDqfzwacpVBAeIhkFr4JoIn95Ew

Nearly half of the world's fishing fleet is comprised of Chinese vessels: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-30/china-super-trawlers-overfishing-world-oceans/10317394

Quote
The Chinese government has given $28 billion in subsidies over the last four years to its fishing fleet....

China's super trawlers are targeting the seas in North West Pacific, South America and Western Africa.

Not only are they destroying fish stocks, but they are also wiping out poorer subsistent communities...

There is little awareness of sustainability in China's public and conservationists say education campaigns are desperately needed.

Human overpopulation is an assault on every component of the earth's systems.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2018, 03:52:21 PM »
A comparison of Chukchi ice extent from 2015-2018, nov1-24 using amsr2-uhh.
The main ice edge for each year from 2015-2017 has been extracted using edge detect in imagej, then splitting the colour channels to remove some of the concentration data, so it should be seen only as a rough comparison.

8
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 23, 2018, 08:01:18 PM »
Links to papers posted earlier in this thread, to save you the time of looking for them.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.msg130821.html#msg130821

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.msg126031.html#msg126031

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.msg131768.html#msg131768

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.msg132298.html#msg132298

Current rates and mechanisms of subsea permafrost degradation in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, published 22 June 2017.

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15872

And here is a link to my methane archive so you can see how this progressed over the years to where we are now.  Being able to see where we were 2 years ago, 5 years ago, 10 years ago, provides an important perspective, allowing you to see just how fast and dramatically this has accelerated.

https://cid-yama.livejournal.com/tag/methane

9
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: November 21, 2018, 05:49:47 PM »
The Ice Island A68-A has rotated about 115º in 6 months, but the pivot end hasn't moved diddlysquat. 

The largest iceberg in the area (current, lower, image) has, in the meantime, moved about 125 km northwards, squeezing through what I'll call an ice-strait.  (1st image from a May 18 post by johnm33 [conveniently at the top of this thread's page 7]; 2nd image from PolarView on November 20.) 

I'm going to postulate, now, that intermittent grounding keeps A68-A where it is; no point is clearly 'actually' stuck in one place for any length of time.  A GIF covering multiple images might show if any spot does get stuck (becoming a fixed (if temporary) pivot point).

10
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 12, 2018, 02:50:23 PM »
Still not enough. We need more destruction, more often, in more places.

It needs to get much worse and more deadly until all the people really notice and then consciously choose to take Global warming and the economic myths driving us to global destruction much more seriously and then ACT accordingly - eg to repeatedly riot on the streets and topple the Governments who are refusing to act on our and our descendants behalf. 

Or is that just too damn radical?

In this vein, I'd like to ask again: Are Trump's inane remarks on the wildfires causing a shitstorm in the media? Is this policy-related stuff hung around his neck like a stone? Or is it all about the stuff Buddy, ASLR and Rob Dekker keep posting in various threads, related to the Mueller investigation or some other non-policy-related thing that Trump does or is being done to Trump?

Because if it's the latter, I agree with Lurk.


No. I don´t agree at all.

I have a daughter living on north Los Angeles and I am concerned that Woolsey Fire could spread into Santa Monica. Why can we think that more destruction is necessary? Or why should we wish for a new lowest record on ASI, and think that we have to wait for it to happen?

The situation is bad enough. I understand that it has been exhausting all the effort of creating a Forum and be concerned all these years. But we cannot quit, and we cannot think that it is necessary to have more damage.

We must spread our point of view. We must make summaries of what it has happened and continue fighting to make governments and general public react against AGW.

11
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 09, 2018, 01:33:57 AM »
Dave Toussaint (@engineco16)
11/8/18, 5:12 PM
#CampFire if we go off of the heat signature, know fire locations it's probably close to 40K acres. PIO just now said 17K acres, so this map may not be far off. [ Image below.]
https://twitter.com/engineco16/status/1060656301158522880
- #CampFire Clark x/Skyway units advising they're running out of water, need water tenders. They have 150 people in a building with several buildings and a gas station on fire next to it.
- #CampFire sending strike teams of engines to help, 10 engines. Clark x/Skyway.

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: November 02, 2018, 12:48:07 PM »
Hi I am a longtime lurker. Inspired by a post on Jason Box's Twitter feed I was one of the 1000 people at the Declaration of Rebellion for Extinction Rebellion on Wednesday. It was a glorious autumn day and I felt privileged to be at the start of something so significant. https://mobile.twitter.com/extinctionr

13
Words.


14
The rest / Re: Systemic Isolation
« on: October 14, 2018, 08:50:31 PM »
While the linked research confirms that a single concrete reality does not exist; HIOTTOE's timelessly evolved free-will information network remains plausible as it posits that free-will creates a constantly changing timeless illusion of reality (rupa):

Title: "Famous Experiment Dooms Alternative to Quantum Weirdness"

https://www.quantamagazine.org/famous-experiment-dooms-pilot-wave-alternative-to-quantum-weirdness-20181011/

Extract: "Oil droplets guided by “pilot waves” have failed to reproduce the results of the quantum double-slit experiment, crushing a century-old dream that there exists a single, concrete reality."

15
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: October 12, 2018, 01:50:52 PM »
The second video in this article has an amazing extended section of winds on the ground during the eyewall.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/briannasacks/drone-footage-hurricane-michael

Video from the hurricane hunter plane:
Michael at landfall. The normal "stadium effect" was more like a cylinder, a straight vertical wall 50K ft high. Saw 175 mph flight level winds, ~155 mph at surface. Entered eyewall at 10K ft, ended up in eye down at 8K! Need another tweet to explain what that felt like… “
https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremydehart53d/status/1050529815323975680

The four Category 4 U.S. #hurricane landfalls in less than 14 months. #HurricaneMichael #Michael
https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisdolcewx/status/1050348660339412992
Image below.

16
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: October 07, 2018, 03:05:33 PM »
And a Sentinel 1 animation, showing the event took place between 24-30 September.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 01, 2018, 11:50:54 PM »
A new visualization tool called PolarGlobe was just released.
https://asunow.asu.edu/20181001-creativity-illustrating-dance-earth
Quote
PolarGlobe is a large-scale, web-based four-dimensional visualization tool allowing climate data access to anyone with an internet connection. It’s capable of illustrating changes in the atmosphere vividly in real time.

Designed specifically for polar scientists seeking to understand the ice caps, the tool is also useful for high school science teachers and weather fanatics.

The technology is called m-cubed: “Multi-dimensional, multi-faceted, multi-variate.”

Historical data in the tool goes back to 2010. Current data is updated every six hours. The tool uses artificial intelligence and machine learning so it continues to learn on its own as new data is generated.

It’s a huge amount of data: 350 terabytes

http://cici.lab.asu.edu/polarglobe/

Maybe someone will find it useful in predicting polar ice conditions.

18
Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: September 27, 2018, 07:20:50 PM »
Prepare for 10 Feet [3.1 m] of Sea Level Rise, California Commission Tells Coastal Cities
Quote
California coastal cities should be prepared for the possibility that oceans will rise more than 10 feet by 2100 and submerge parts of beach towns, the state Coastal Commission warns in new draft guidance.

The powerful agency, which oversees most development along 1,100 miles of coast, will consider approving the guidance this fall. A staff report recommending the changes was released last week.

Earlier commission guidance put top sea-level rise at 6 feet by 2100. But according to the new report, there’s the “potential for rapid ice loss to result in an extreme scenario of 10.2 feet of sea level rise” by the end of the century. ...
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/prepare-for-10-feet-of-sea-level-rise-california-commission-tells-coastal-cities/

19
The rest / Re: Human Stupidity (Human Mental Illness)
« on: March 27, 2018, 11:42:18 PM »
The threats of climate change have been evident since at least the late 1970's (& to people like POTUS since at least the mid-1960's); nevertheless, insufficient progress has been made in this fight, largely due to 'Analysis Paralysis' on the part of climate scientists.  For instance, after decades of research, the uncertainty range for climate sensitivity reported in AR5 is actually larger than that reported in FAR (First Assessment Report).

As BAU-thinking got us into our current mess, on the concept that it is necessary to fight fire with fire, I provide the linked Forbes article on how to overcome the 'Analysis Paralysis' of decision-making.  For climate scientists to overcome their 'analysis paralysis' I recommend (using the logic of the article) that climate scientists:

1. Set a 'drop dead' date:  The Paris Agreement says that the signatory states will strive limit GMSTA to 1.5C above pre-industrial.  Climate scientist should make it very clear to the public that the decision makers will miss this reasonable goal, without the use of geoengineering which the climate scientists recommend not be implemented.

2. Get a sanity check: The current rate of anthropogenic radiative forcing is about 100-times faster than during the PETM.  Thus climate scientists should publically emphasize only the projections from the highest-performance twenty to thirty ESMs that have been calibrated to observed hyperthermal event paleodata.  I note that such high-performance ESMs exhibit climate sensitivities that are significantly higher than the mean ECS value cited in AR5.

3. Curb your curiosity: Rather than losing view of the forest due to the presence of too many trees, climate scientists should adopt a limit state characterization of climate parameters (like: ECS & GMTA) including a maximum credible limit state case.

4. Recognize that the moons will never align:  As climate change projections are too complex to be able understood with a high degree of certainty, climate scientists should adopt the 'Precautionary Principle' when interpreting the output from the high-performance ESMs.

5. Stair step your decisions:  As our understanding of climate science keeps changing; climate scientists should regularly update their projections and should publically discuss cases where 'fat-tailed' risks are actually realized.

Title: "How To Overcome The 'Analysis Paralysis' Of Decision-Making"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffboss/2015/03/20/how-to-overcome-the-analysis-paralysis-of-decision-making/#3ee9d51d1be5

Extract: "Set a 'drop dead' date.

Get a sanity check.

Curb your curiosity.

Recognize that the moons will never align.

Stair step your decisions.

Decisions are never final for the simple fact that change is never absolute.  Rather, change is ongoing."

20
The rest / Re: US intervention in foreign lands
« on: March 04, 2018, 04:54:05 AM »
I read up a bit on Honduras, and was looking for evidence that the US intervened.

I could not find any, and it looks like that is because the US did NOT intervene.

Opposition parties blame the US (and Clinton specifically) for NOT denouncing the 2009 coup (or not denouncing it strong enough).
And they blame the US (and Clinton specifically) for NOT cutting off all aid to Honduras (including humanitarian aid).
And they blame the US for NOT denouncing the elections that followed.
And they blame the US (and Clinton specifically) for NOT denouncing the murder of Berta Caceres strong enough.

So if the US intervenes in another country it is blamed.
And if it doesn't intervene, it is also blamed.

The US can't do anything right, can it ?

<snip, N.> How can you say shit like this on THE DAY Berta Cáceres was murdered by AMERICAN TRAINED ASSASSINS. Denounce? DENOUNCE ENOUGH? What the fuck are you talking about? A world renowned environmentalist was killed by a hit squad.  What is wrong with you? Who are you defending at this point?

Do not read just "a bit". READ A LOT. you are obviously struggling to understand the deep and complex implications of American imperialism

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