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Messages - vox_mundi

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1
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 11, 2019, 02:06:12 AM »
I'm not talking about social action. I was pointing out social dysfunction. You don't present facts, you isolate information and compartmentalize it into silos, ignoring other connected observations and omitting 'facts' heavily when you make your many specious arguments here on the site ... all always leading to the same conclusion, to underplay climate change.

That's what I was calling you out for. You don't present science, you intentionally misrepresent it.

Like with your frequency red herring.
.

2
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 09:57:30 PM »
And you did backpedal when confronted. Walked straight backwards and backed off of what you were trying to shmeeb with your doublespeak. It's a smarmy way to be.

Meanwhile, your country is drowning, and burning, and getting blown away. It's absurd what you do here on this site with your stream of contrary arguments.

But whatever. Knowing you were banned before brings some solace. Not sure why you aren't banned again, you definitely just bring obfuscation to the subject of AGW.

3
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 09:51:07 PM »
No, it's what the politicians and economists have asked for as a stalling tactic for thirty years ... more evidence ... while they delayed and blew past the chance for anybody to do anything about it, where the scientists were quite sure of what they were seeing. Extremely long term statistical evidence is just one singular line of reasoning.  For some people, they could still be asking in a thousand years for more statistical evidence. It's a ruse, and supports the, oh, it will change back argument that people like Trump make.

You'll notice that when it comes to spraying chemicals around, or damning a river, that there's no need to bother with long term statistical evidence in your society. They just spray it. It's a ruse. Your whole tact here is to obfuscate what science is certain of. Quit trying to present yourself as rational. You're need for never ending statistical evidence is called prolonging the debate, a well known doubt merchant strategy, whether you are aware of yourself doing it or not.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. - A. Einstein

4
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 08:04:02 PM »
So now you change your story from a very solidly stated 'no connection' to 'too early to make one very specific procedural conclusion, a long term statistical one' ... admitting now that there are observed changes, they just haven't been observed for long enough.

But that's very different from what you first tried to BS us with, which is that there was 'no connection,' implied in a context that there have been no observed changes whatsoever. I know it's subtle, but this is what you do here on this site. You spin things.

That was my point, your here to support the denialists. Same goes with all the other Cato Institute arguments you present here on this site, ad nauseam.  You spin, is what you do, heavily.

We scientists, you say. What, are you a dentist or something? Don't flatter yourself.

5
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 06:57:59 PM »
Here's how you like to phrase things:

"... linking hurricane activity with global warming have found no connection."

Would you like to talk about the jet stream, AGW, and hurricanes?

Jennifer Francis had some thoughts about it's influence on Florence last fall.

You would be laughed off Dr. Masters site for the ignorance you spew about there being no connection between AGW and hurricane behavior, which is what you're arguing hard to try and imply here.

You're just a subtle doubt merchant dude, and it's annoying to watch you do it. Desperately trying to show how it's not happening with most everything you post.

6
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 06:22:48 PM »
The point was, you try to discount AGW effects through a great deal of omission when you present your arguments. It's pretty obvious to see what your intention is here at ASIF. That was my point.

You try to create a sense that hurricane behavior is not actually changing much, by omitting most of the ways they are being observed to be changing when you make points in isolation.

Your arguments you make here are clearly specious in their nature, dishonest. You're here to obfuscate science, that's pretty clear from watching you make your arguments against climate science here (which is what you do, even though you say you don't.)

A troll.

7
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 05:53:20 PM »
Klondike Kat, you seem to like to omit a lot of things, isolate certain points while being guilty of omission. I find you to be like a subtle doubt merchant more than any sort of legitimate skeptical thinker, which is how you like to present yourself.

You claim to know a lot about hurricanes, but you just mentioned shear, when Michael last fall rapidly intensified in a high shear environment, which confounded the historical ideas of a lot of experts in the field.

You also ignore the way these systems are both stalling, and also steering differently, due to the changes AGW has produced in jetstream behavior, which is also noted by hurricane experts. I called you out on your omission of that once before here. Think ... Flo last fall and the Carolina's, stalling, and steering, from noted and observable jetstream changes.

You don't seem that up on hurricanes. I find you to just be a doubt merchant, not a legitimate skeptic. You omit a lot of things to make points in very isolated contexts, and I find that disingenuous. Yes, just an intentional doubt merchant, grasping at straws in isolation through a lot of omission and placing things outside of their larger context a lot.

8
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: June 10, 2019, 02:05:41 PM »
Hurricanes to grow stronger:
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/east-coast-hurricane-landfalls-may-be-more-intense-with-climate-change
Actually, they said may grow stronger.

According to the IPCC, formed storms are more likely to be stronger as a result of AGW.

Pretty obvious that a warmer ocean leads to stronger storms and a warmer atmosphere leads to wetter storms.

Voila, since 2016 we've had 17 global storms with sustained winds in excess of 150mph and epic rain bombs Harvey and Florence on top of that.

Earlier this decade, we've had two storms that belong on the Mt. Rushmore of tropical cyclones (Haiyan and Patricia).

Pretty damn clear what AGW is doing to storm intensity in general.

Warmer oceans are likely to set the stage for more tropical development.  However, cyclone strength is determined largely by wind shear.  This is what the article was implying.  While models indicate that an increase is likely, recent studies linking hurricane activity with global warming have found no connection.

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

You are linking to a report which is confirming EVERYTHING I spelled out in my previous post.

Tropical cyclones becoming more intense, wetter and more frequently becoming Cat 4 / 5.

You still didn't answer my question. Why do you come to ASIF? How does this tie in with your purpose in life?

You've been accused by others of being a troll. You should have the opportunity to respond to that.

9
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 05, 2019, 12:47:35 AM »
C-CAN is a group my wife and I both participate in . It brings together scientists , managers, aquaculturists, and fishermen in an effort to address ocean acidification in the California Current.
 We pull together speakers for a  webinar series in an effort to disseminate information without burning fossil fuels to attend meetings. Check out our latest, "The enviornmental cost of dinner" by Ray Hilbourn
 
https://c-can.info/c-can-oar-15-may-2019/






10
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 03, 2019, 07:00:26 AM »
Food prices in REAL terms (which means adjusted for inflation) are where they were in the 60s and 70s, and only 50% higher than at the multidecade lows around 2000, when oil prices were only a third of today's. That is quite amazing in itself since oil prices drive food prices very much.

Indeed, it's impressive that so far food prices have been as steady as they have in spite of rising oil prices, freshwater depletion & contamination, fish stock depletion, 80m more mouths to feed each year, desertification, general climate change-related disruption etc.


If you are in the middle of a Malthusian catastrophe, you still think you are in a golden age. This is a function of math.

"Little does the fox know, that the number of rabbits is in steady decline."


11
Emeritus Professor and past Scripps Director Charles Kennel reveals the potential of arctic sea ice loss to influence the intensity of climate events such as El Nino, and raises the possibility that more changes in weather patterns and extreme events are to come.

A discussion about various linkages between sea ice and what happens farther south.

Recorded on 04/08/2019. Series: "Jeffrey B. Graham Perspectives on Ocean Science Lecture Series"


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 19, 2019, 10:10:36 PM »
ascat and uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh (both heavy contrast) overlaid onto mercator 34m salinity. Ascat showing approximate ice age, amsr2 showing more fracture detail. Salinity somewhat lost under the other 2 layers but reddy brown is salltier than greeny yellow saltier than blue. sep24-may18.
Note the incoming weather event from the pacific on day117(0427)
tricky to get the scaling and overlay to match up. The ice matches better than the lat/long lines



13
The rest / Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« on: May 14, 2019, 08:03:40 AM »
As usual, Michael Pollan puts the putative dichotomy very well. In his book "Second Nature"

"But the discovery that time and chance hold sway even in nature can also be liberating. Because contingency is and invitation to participate in history. Human choice is unnatural only if nature is deterministic, human change is unnatural only if she is changeless in our absence."

"if its history will always be the product of myriad chance events, then why shouldn't we also claim our place among all those deciding factors ? "

"what if nature decides on Japanese honeysuckle -- three hundred years of wall-to-wall brush ? ... At this point in history when humans have left their stamp on virtually every corner of the Earth, doing nothing is frequently a poor recipe ..."

"if we do nothing we may end up with an impoverished weed patch"

" "All or nothing" says the wilderness ethic, and in fact we have ended up with a landscape in America that conforms to that injunction ... Americans have done an admirable job of drawing lines around certain sacred areas ... and a terrible job of managing the rest of our land. ... Once a landscape is not longer "virgin" it is typically written off as fallen. We hand it over to the jurisdiction that other sacrosanct American ethic: laissez-faire economics. "You might as well build put up condos" And so, we do. "

"indeed the wilderness ethic and laissez-faire economics are really mirror images of one another. Each proposes a quasi-divine force  --- Nature, the Market -- that left to its own devices, somehow knows whats best for a place ... Worsjippers of either share a deep, Puritan distrust of man, taking on faith that humans tinkering with the natural or economic order can only pervert it."

"The old idea might have told us how to worship nature, but it didn't tell us how to live with her. It told us more than we needed to know about virginity and rape, and almost nothing about marriage."

"If nature is the one necessary source of instruction for a garden ethic,culture is the other. Civilization may be part of our problem with respect to nature, but there will be no solution without it. As Wendell Berry has pointed out, it is culture, and certainly not nature, that teaches us to observe and remember, to learn from our mistakes, to share our experiences, and perhaps most important of all, to restrain ourselves. Nature does not teach its creatures to control their appetites except by the harshest of lessons–epidemics, mass death, extinctions. Nothing would be more natural than for humankind to burden the environment to the extent that it was rendered unfit for human life. Nature in that event would not be the loser, nor would it disturb her laws in the least–operating as it has always done, natural selection would unceremoniously do us in. Should this fate be averted, it will only be because our culture–our laws and metaphors, our science and technology, our ongoing conversation about nature and man’s place in it–pointed us in the direction of a different future. Nature will not do this for us.”

sidd

14
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 10, 2019, 03:30:15 AM »
There is also the Morganza spillway they can open.
There was a threat of of the Mississippi changing course in 1973, they had to shore up the Old River Control structure with a special concrete that could harden underwater.
Nice article here
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/americas-achilles-heel-the-mississippi-rivers-old-river-control-st.html

15
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: May 06, 2019, 08:48:56 PM »
UN Extinction Report

The BBC (on-line and on the gogglebox) have made quite a splash on the UN Extinction report. 
Even makes it onto page 1 of Sky News

New York Times have got it on page 1 of their on-line version.
Not on Bloomberg News - not even on their "Climate Changed" section. Disappointing.
Not on Fox news - what a surprise!

You can find the summary report here:-
https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global-assessment-summary-policymakers-pdf

Presumably a huge report will come out later
______________________________________________________
Quote from Tor...
Quote
The "Anthropocene" is a political construct, whereas the "Holocene" is a geological one.
The Anthropocene Age was suggested by some geologists who calculated that in many ways man was causing greater geological change than natural processes - e.g. man was shifting more rock, sand and earth around the planet than natural processes of erosion. In later geological ages, the rock strata being formed today will have the imprint of mankind in it.

16
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 06, 2019, 02:32:09 PM »
A zoom on the Nares Strait using AMSR2 data 2013-2019.

https://twitter.com/seaice_de/status/1125354599282610177



Click to start animation.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: May 05, 2019, 08:27:26 PM »
Very popular here are the sea ice minimum and maximum polls guessing the correct sea ice extent in millions of square kilometer. A more scientific oriented version of it is the Sea Ice Prediction Network: https://www.arcus.org/sipn
This year was the second time they made a trial run to forecast the Antarctic summer minimum and I participated (as Nico Sun) with a forecast model derived from this Albedo-Warming Potential model. The underlying physics are the same. The major difference is that instead of accumulating an energy value in a grid cell, this energy is used to calculate the sea ice thickness loss. Additionally I added an outgoing infrared radiation variable to get an actual energy balance.

With the post season report released I can proudly claim victory not only in overall area values, but also on a regional scale with the lowest error over the entire 3 month forecasting period. This is in part thanks to the real world usefulness of the AWP model and in part due to the submission deadline of 1st December. Some other team's can only run their models at the beginning of every month and had to use October data for their model initialization. I attached the two most relevant figures, but recommend to read the whole report.

Full 2018-2019 post season report
http://www.climate.be/users/fmasson/SIPN-South_2018-2019_postseason.pdf

General SIPN south website
http://acecrc.org.au/sipn-south/


Sea Ice Loss Formula of the forecast model:

Ed = MJ_inlat,day x (1 - SIC) - MJ_out
z = Ed / Efusion

Ed = Melt energy per day
MJ_in = incoming solar radiation per m2
MJ_out = outgoing infrared emmision per m2
SIC = sea ice concentration
z = thickness loss in m
Efusion = Enthalpy of fusion per m3

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 01, 2019, 09:56:35 PM »
since i rarely see anything of this kind posted here i thought i bring to your attention
this great source where one can get the best overall impression about the state of the ice.
getting close to satellite photos with zero cloud scenarios, while of course it is not.

the screenshot shows not the full potential/size and any date can be chosen to compare
between years or any other time frame.

link to site:

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD

of course there is an antarctic selection as well as many other parameters to choose from.
since some of you like to post images on a regular basis, choose size and area shown very
carefully, this might be something for you.

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 01, 2019, 08:06:12 PM »
Every time I think I am immune to the vileness within the DNA of the human species, I read something that gets through the shield..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/01/greta-thunberg-right-environmental-activist-attacks

The hounding of Greta Thunberg is proof that the right has run out of ideas
Aditya Chakrabortty

Quote
Over the past few days, something extraordinary has happened in our politics. A bunch of grown men have begun bullying a schoolgirl. Perhaps you already know who I mean: Greta Thunberg, she of the pigtails and school strikes, who came to Westminster last week and slammed adoring MPs for posturing rather than taking action on climate breakdown, then hoofed it over to St Pancras for the 36-hour train ride back to Stockholm.

Which left the eco-denialists back here with a stonking great headache: how to bash this 16-year-old celeb? Not by dismantling her arguments, not when the scientists and Sir David of Blue Planet back her up. Nor by sniffing around her record, since by definition a teenager hasn’t much of a past to rake over. The standard methods of political warfare off-limits to them, they are trying something new and unusual. They are sinking their teeth into her.
 
She was “chilling”, declared Brendan O’Neill, editor of the hard-right website Spiked, after picking on her “monotone voice” and “look of apocalyptic dread in her eyes”. Given Thunberg’s openness about her Asperger’s, this was a dog whistle if he knew about it, but it was at best crass if he didn’t: the kid’s on the spectrum! Bringing up the rear were the bloggers at Guido Fawkes, trying to eke a three-course meal out of the morsel that Thunberg’s mum performed in the Eurovision song contest 10 years ago – cast-iron proof of “an incredibly privileged background”. This finding has been gurningly spread on social media by none other than that vomiting dustbin of opinions Toby Young. You don’t need to be much sharper than him to observe that he is the son of a baron who rang Oxford University to get his boy a place.

This is sad and it is desperate, but one thing it is not is insignificant. Both O’Neill and the Guido Fawkes site form part of the wider ecology of rightwing thinking. O’Neill is a regular on the rolling-news channels, with their unquenchable demands for just-add-water controversy; Guido Fawkes supplies both gossip and personnel to the rest of the British media.

Sure enough, by last weekend the Spectator and the Sunday Times were hosting attacks on this schoolgirl revolutionary, with her authoritarian demands about not destroying the environment, with Rod Liddle in the Sunday paper devoting almost half a page to “that weird Swedish kid” and her “imbecilic” supporters. The Spectator apparently can’t get enough of this story, even running a piece by Helen Dale, who posted a tweet calling for “this Greta Thunberg character” to “have a meltdown on national telly”. This was a “gag”, Dale says now, deploying the excuse of bullies down the ages: can’t you take a joke?

21
Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: April 30, 2019, 10:21:14 PM »
Lock em up til they die: no trials for the tortured

" the DOD is preparing its 40 remaining forever prisoners at the extralegal detention center of Guantanamo Bay for nursing home and hospice care "

"these final prisoners are never being released ...  DOD is simply planning to keep these folks under lock and key forever. The reason why is more than a little unsettling: most were tortured into confessions that can’t be used in a jury trial"

"almost no one cares."

"a great author – Dostoyevsky – once wrote, presciently, that "The degree of civilization in a society can be judged by entering its prisons." Well, if that’s true than God help the collective American soul."

"Don’t look for any courage on Capitol Hill, you’ll be searching indefinitely."

"locking foreigners up and throwing away the key makes perfect sense because, after all, we now live in the United States of Incarceration. "

"The Russians took a bit longer, and also worked many Nazi soldiers to death, but even they, after some ten years, released the survivors."

"the evidence demonstrates that yes, apparently, this is who Americans want to be"

Read and weep:

https://original.antiwar.com/Danny_Sjursen/2019/04/29/the-united-states-of-incarceration/

sidd

22
Policy and solutions / Re: But, but, but Germany ....
« on: April 29, 2019, 02:47:51 AM »
Betrayed: Germany’s government quashes EU carbon neutrality

Quote
Recently a leaked EU-planning document reported by EURACTIV (and confirmed by CLEW) revealed that at a two-day Brussels summit, a group of nations led by Germany and including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic “have refused to specifically link EU climate action with the 1.5°C objective. They also oppose any time-bound commitment to the EU’s climate neutrality objective, deleting any reference to 2050 for reaching that goal.”

Quote
But all these signs seem lost upon much of Germany’s government, which instead is more intent than ever to slow down the energy transition. Repeated failures such as the Diesel-Gate Scandal, the nation missing its 2020 pledged emissions targets, the continued expansion of lignite mining (despite the recommendations of so-called Coal Commission) have incensed the public. Yet Germany’s Grand Coalition between the SPD and CDU keeps choosing fossil fuel dependency while denying physics, ignoring public sentiment and ensuring the heatwave isn’t going to break anytime soon. As this story goes to press, the Grand Coalition is now paving the way for fracked LNG imports from the US and an overall gas-powered economy.

Quote
Despite announcing a renewed focus on the environment in response to the growing Fridays for the Future demonstrations, sadly “Germany’s response to unprecedented protests by young people all over the world is essentially to put the brakes on European climate action,” said Sebastian Mang, EU climate policy adviser at Greenpeace. As the governing parties continue to circumvent the science and ignore the public, no wonder the Greens have become the nation’s third most popular party, gaining nearly as many new members last year as the CDU lost.

https://energytransition.org/2019/04/betrayed-germanys-government-quashes-eu-carbon-neutrality/

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: April 22, 2019, 05:07:28 PM »
Long have we waited. It's finally here.

The climate bullshit fund!


24
The rest / Re: Arctic Café
« on: April 21, 2019, 03:19:54 PM »
A metaphor of hope for our troubled future:

Bees living on Notre-Dame cathedral roof survive blaze
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47995604

""I was incredibly sad about Notre-Dame because it's such a beautiful building," Mr Géant said in an interview with CNN.

"But to hear there is life when it comes to the bees, that's just wonderful.""

25
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: April 18, 2019, 06:29:53 AM »
The Donald calls Carter: China blues

"Carter told a church congregation this weekend that he had spoken with President Donald Trump about China on Saturday, and said the commander in chief was worried that Beijing had outpaced its global rivals."

"Carter said he did not “really fear that time, but it bothers President Trump and I don’t know why." "

"Carter—who normalized diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing in 1979—suggested that China’s breakneck growth had been facilitated by sensible investment and buoyed by peace."

" “Since 1979, do you know how many times China has been at war with anybody?” Carter asked. “None. And we have stayed at war.” The U.S., he noted, has only enjoyed 16 years of peace in its 242-year history, making the country “the most warlike nation in the history of the world,” Carter said. This is, he said, because of America’s tendency to force other nations to “adopt our American principles.” "

"In China, meanwhile, the economic benefits of peace were clear to the eye. “How many miles of high-speed railroad do we have in this country?” he asked. "

“I wasn’t comparing my country adversely to China. I was just pointing that out because I happened to get a phone call last night.”

Read:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jimmy-carter-china-war-infrastructure-economy-trade-war-church-1396086

Carter: the best ex president the USA ever had.

Bonus link from America's Finest News Source:  oldie but a goodie

"You better get down on your hands and knees and kiss Jimmy Carter's rosy-red Georgia-peach-picking ass and beg me to run your fucking country again"

"But who comes to me, huh? Fucking nobody. Why ask old Jimmy anything? What the fuck could he know about peace in the Middle East? It's not like he fucking won the Nobel Peace Prize for that shit. "

"Cocksuckers."

"Oh, what's that I hear? The weather's all screwy? You got a global warming problem? Boo-fucking-hoo! I was telling you morons to turn off your lights and unplug all your shit at night to conserve energy in 19-fuckin'-75, for chrissake. "

"You had your chance with Jimmy Carter, and you fucking blew it. "

https://politics.theonion.com/i-got-what-america-needs-right-here-1819584452

sidd

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: April 15, 2019, 07:17:51 AM »
This is a GIF showing a perfect storm over Nares Strait on 11. and 12. 04.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: April 15, 2019, 07:09:40 AM »
This is a GIF showing the Beaufort Sea.

You can see beautifully how the wind moves the ice, causing a spiral pattern.

Edit: The gyre below is also contributing to the movement.

(Click to play)

28
For me it's the anecdotal stories. I think I am probably one of the least ( formally )educated people on this forum but I have, like any other human, stories to tell. Watching as the ocean has changed over my lifetime as a commercial diver and fisherman gives me an opportunity to tell a unique story. I have watched as the abalone resources have , for the most part , collapsed. The starfish and the sea urchins also succumbing to disease brought on by the stress of increased ocean heat. My own guilt in knowing that the fuel I have used to pursue a fishing career has contributed to the death and mayhem now all around me.
 My transition to farming also comes with stories of decline. The 108 F heatwave that last year killed all the fledgling swallows in their nests and this years abandoned nesting  colony that had returned every one of the last twenty years till now. The disappearance of the Phoebes that also shared my farm with me for twenty years, the noticeable declines in insects. The loss of so many pines and oaks during our eight year drought. 
 The struggles against what appear to be irreversible changes. Tragic losses and what passes for my feeble attempts to forestall future horrors yet unseen. My stories, our stories , and the emotional context that might inspire others  to look a little deeper , fight a little harder,  and on occasion shed tears over our shared losses.   


29
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: April 10, 2019, 09:14:38 AM »
Potentially good news there Vox!

By eating less meat and paying farmers to give land over to nature I think we humans can really significantly lessen the burden on insects, indeed on all sorts of creatures. All around where I live is open moorland (see photo), whose only agricultural value is for grazing a small number of sheep - yet those sheep mean there are no trees and very little else for miles at a time. Sheep farming in such areas (Im in the UK by the way) is not profitable and is subsidised heavily by the government; I do wonder whether some farmers might be willing to be paid instead to oversee the restoration of this land?

There seems to be an attachment to preserving things "as they are" in nature orgaisations here, rather than seeing that the land is in a bad state which is not natural.

Trees, birds, animals, insects. It can be done I'm sure. Rewilding needs to happen.

30
storm severity does not exclude rainfall as a measure .. and why clutter up an informative thread with arguements about size .. there are other places for such ... b.c.

31
Tornados. What a nice cherry. Is that all you do KkK? Pick cherries and deal uncertainties.

32
Everything in the media seems to be "historic" these days.  They respond as if this never happened before.  This region is well known for these types of storms - even into May.

I know you read this forum, Kat. I know you do read that there are record-breaking climate news all around the world. You do know that due to climate change storms are getting stronger.

So, may i ask what you mean exactly? Is there a special reason why you doubt the article?

34
Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: April 03, 2019, 07:45:59 AM »
Or, just don't execute people.

35
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: April 02, 2019, 09:16:17 PM »
DOOMED!!! WE ARE ALL DOOMED !!!!                    (perhaps not)

https://www.skepticalscience.com/1April2019Post.html
   
Asteroid to hit Earth in August 2046 - Emergency IPCC UN panel formed
Posted on 1 April 2019 by scaddenp

36
The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: April 02, 2019, 08:52:38 PM »
Simon interviews Hudson on the origins of debt slavery and jubilee:

Simon: " the Greeks and the Romans learned about interest-bearing debt from their contacts with Middle Eastern civilizations, but tragically failed to institute programs of Clean Slate debt amnesty. Their failure has been a kind of albatross around the neck of Western economies ever since."

Hudson: " Liberty for them was the liberty to destroy that of the population at large. Instead of cancelling debts and restoring land tenure to the population, the oligarchy created the Senate that protected the right of creditors to enslave labor and seize public as well as private lands (just as had occurred in Athens before Solon). Instead of restoring a status quo ante of free cultivators — free of debt and tax obligations, as Sumerian amargi and Babylonian misharumand andurarum meant — the Roman oligarchy accused anyone of supporting debtor rights and opposing its land grabs of “seeking kingship.” Such men were murdered, century after century."

Hudson: "Rome was turned into an oligarchy, an autocracy of the senatorial families. Their “liberty” was an early example of Orwellian Doublethink. It was to destroy everybody else’s liberty so they could grab whatever they could, enslave the debtors and create the polarized society that Rome became."

Hudson: "Once there were no more kingdoms for Rome to destroy, it collapsed from within. It was basically a looting economy. And it didn’t do more than the British colonialists did: It only scratched the surface. It didn’t put in place the means of production that would create enough money for them to grow productively. Essentially, Rome was a financial rentier state."

Hudson: " debt cancellations were not a diffusionist policy from the East, but a spontaneous pragmatic response such as was being widely advocated as far west as Rome"

Hudson: "We see a balance of forces in the ancient Near East, thanks to the fact that its rulers had authority to cancel debt and restore land that wealthy individuals had taken from smallholders. These kings were powerful enough to prevent the rise of oligarchies that would reduce the population to debt peonage and bondage (and in the process, deprive the palace of revenue and corvée labor, and even the military service of debtors owing their labor to their private creditors). We don’t have any similar protection in today’s Western Civilization. That’s what separates Western Civilization from the earlier Near Eastern stage. Modern financialized civilization has stripped away the power to prevent a land-grabbing creditor oligarchy from controlling society and its laws."

Hudson: "What they call a “free market” is an unmixed monolithic, centrally planned financialized economy with freedom for the oligarchy to impoverish the rest of society. That was achieved by landlordism monopolizing the land in feudal Europe, and it is done by finance today."

I shall have to read Hudson's book. This interview is at

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/04/the-delphic-oracle-was-their-davos-a-four-part-interview-with-michael-hudson-about-his-forthcoming-book-the-collapse-of-antiquity-part-1.html

sidd

37
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 27, 2019, 08:06:17 PM »
US Air Force: We Need $5 Billion To Fix Weather-Damaged Bases
Quote
The U.S. Air Force says it needs nearly $5 billion over the next three years to rebuild bases in Florida and Nebraska severely damaged by weather in the past six months.

If it does not receive $1.2 billion of those funds by June for repairs at Tyndall Air Force Base and Offutt Air Force Base, service officials warned they would be forced to cut projects at bases in 18 states and cancel 18,000 pilot training hours.
...
Caught by surprise

The damage to both bases appears to have caught the military by surprise. The Pentagon’s widely criticized climate-impact report for 2019 listed Offutt as a base with climate-related vulnerabilities, but only for drought, and said there was no current or potential risk of recurrent flooding. While the report mentioned Tyndall in its text, the base did not appear in the list of at-risk facilities. ...
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/03/us-air-force-we-need-5-billion-fix-weather-damaged-bases/155863/

38
The Conversation No One Knows How to Have


Interesting to see how abrupt climate change is entering the common discussion without being called what it is.

Today, my fiance and one of my son's teachers were discussing the flooding disaster here in Nebraska. One of them were talking about how bad it was and that people outside of Nebraska and Iowa just do not understand the significance of the damage to food and agriculture that had occurred from the flooding.

This seems to be true. And it may be even non-farmers living in this region do not fully appreciate how bad it is (although it's easier to pay attention and know someone who does). But this sh*t is bad. From the mass destruction of infrastructure and private equipment to the losses of grains both stored from last year sitting out and spoiling in polluted water and more rain. And parts of the region may see more snow and rain Friday-Saturday. But the inability to plant this year as well...eroded soils, polluted soils, soil covered in sand from rivers. In many cases, because of melting of the previously frozen soil with the mass melting and runoff, has now turned to muddy mush. And this is literally one part of the world. Let's not forget all the recent and current disasters impacting our world.

People who say that "this has happened before" because water happened to rise over the bank of a river which flooded before anger me. "The climate is always changing" others say. "We don't know whether this is climate change".

There's denial...blaming our increasingly energetic, steroid-juiced destabilizing climate with more and more explosive extremes on "poor infrastructure" or "building in the wrong places" or "variability"...and then there's simply the equivalent of looking at a terminally ill patient straight in the eye and telling them to get over it, take some meds and walk it off. It's to the point of like..."what??" When we call the variability of a cataclysmic sh*tshow right before our very eyes killing our fellow peoples and species normal, we've gone from denial and bargaining to plain absurdity in the face of the climate and ecological destruction monsters we have released...

Read the rest here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/25635061

39
Even the dismal science is under attack.

From the Huffington Post:

Donald Trump Just Picked A Laughingstock For A Huge Federal Reserve Job
Stephen Moore is a joke in the economics profession.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/stephen-moore-federal-reserve-trump_n_5c953977e4b01ebeef0f13e8

40
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: March 22, 2019, 08:28:14 PM »
EARLY RESULTS OF CMIP6 MODELS INDICATE HIGHER CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-results-from-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-matter

Quote
Early results suggest ECS values from some of the new CMIP6 climate models are higher than previous estimates, with early numbers being reported between 2.8C (pdf) and 5.8C. This compares with the previous coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which reported values between 2.1C to 4.7C. The IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5) assessed ECS to be “likely” in the range 1.5C to 4.5C and “very unlikely” greater than 6C. (These terms are defined using the IPCC methodology.)

41
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 22, 2019, 05:12:07 AM »
"If this pattern persists, it may signal a larger problem,"

No shit. Guess what, Sherlock, it's gonna not only persist, but get worse.

Now as to :

"The flooding surrounded fuel tanks at Offutt Air Force Base and tipped over one, which military officials said was empty and had been decommissioned"

These people lie and lie and lie. I deal with those large oil tanks. Even when empty there is sludge in the bottom, toxic, the worst stuff settles out during operation. Thats why its impossible to sell a fuel oil tank until you clean out the sludge, and doing that is usually worth more than the tank at end of life. Now that tank in the picture on its side looks about 5-10Kgallon, i guarantee there was 500-1000 gallon of sludge in the bottom. When that thing floats up and tips over it ripped all the plumbing out, and probably popped a weld or two when it tipped. All that sludge is in the Missouri.

Now take a look at the walls around the tanks. Thats the spill containment. When you put a big tank in you got to build a retaining wall round it, enuf to retain spill of all tank contents. Now you can see that the two tanks  still standing also have spill containment full of water.

Now the inside of those spill containments at large facilities are pretty gross places. Place like Offut, been goin for decades, that floor of that spill containment had decades of contaminant from millions of little spills over the long years. All that is in the river.

My tax dollars at play.

sidd

42
The first linked Barron's article, explains that the information/guidance that consensus climate scientists have managed to convey to business, makes those businesses conclude that 'it still makes financial sense to burn the globe".  As the article indicates this leads some people to conclude that we are headed to a 'climate Minsky moment', comparable to the 2008 financial collapses where a few 'outlier' warnings (Minsky in the case of the market and Hansen in the case of climate) were discounted by the consensus which lead to a collapse (in 2008 for the economy and still unfolding for the climate).  It seems clear to me that consensus climate science has conveyed a message to the markets that climate change impacts will unfold so slowly that it makes good financial sense for business people to continue to game the market.  Clearly, climate scientists need to stop erring on the side of least drama, and instead they need to convey clearer information about the magnitude and the time-scale of our current climate risks (which are unfolding in real time in front of our eyes):


Title: "It Still Makes Financial Sense to Burn the Globe"

https://www.barrons.com/articles/climate-change-is-still-too-cheap-esg-investing-51553104880

Extract: "It still makes good financial sense to burn the globe, although we know that we will have to pay a steep price for it."

See also:

Title: "Minsky moment"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

Extract: "The term was coined by Paul McCulley of PIMCO in 1998, to describe the 1998 Russian financial crisis, and was named after economist Dr. Hyman Minsky, who noted that bankers, traders, and other financiers periodically played the role of arsonists, setting the entire economy ablaze. Minsky opposed the deregulation that characterized the 1980s."
&

Title: "Mark Carney warns of climate change threat to financial system"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/06/mark-carney-warns-climate-change-threat-financial-system

Extract: "The governor of the Bank of England has warned of the “catastrophic impact” climate change could have for the financial system unless firms do more to disclose their vulnerabilities."

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 18, 2019, 06:33:19 AM »

44
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: March 17, 2019, 05:02:31 PM »
Nile shipwreck discovery proves Herodotus right – after 2,469 years

In the fifth century BC, the Greek historian Herodotus visited Egypt and wrote of unusual river boats on the Nile. Twenty-three lines of his Historia, the ancient world’s first great narrative history, are devoted to the intricate description of the construction of a “baris”.

For centuries, scholars have argued over his account because there was no archaeological evidence that such ships ever existed. Now there is. A “fabulously preserved” wreck in the waters around the sunken port city of Thonis-Heracleion has revealed just how accurate the historian was.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/mar/17/nile-shipwreck-herodotus-archaeologists-thonis-heraclion

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 15, 2019, 08:22:45 PM »
Mercator 0m salinity, jan1-mar14, used here to show current and possible upwelling along the Alaskan coast from Chukchi to Beaufort.
Worldview viirsbt15n, mar10-14 confirming.
FOOW warm water coming back up to haunt us perhaps

edit: forgot salinity scale

46
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 14, 2019, 02:51:31 PM »

The Toxic Consequences of America’s Plastics Boom

Thanks to fracking, petrochemicals giants are poised to make the plastic pollution crisis much, much worse.

Companies are investing $65 billion to dramatically expand plastics production in the United States, and more than 333 petrochemical projects are underway or newly completed, including brand-new facilities, expansions of existing plants, vast networks of pipelines, and shipping infrastructure. This is a sharp reversal of fortune for American plastics manufacturers. Just over a decade ago, major plastics makers shed tens of thousands of jobs as cheaper operating costs in Asia and the Middle East lured production overseas. Now, thanks to the fracking revolution, producing plastic has become radically cheaper in the United States, leading to a glut of raw materials for its creation. The economic winds have shifted so profoundly that petrochemical companies have declared a “renaissance” in American plastics manufacturing. In turn, plastic is becoming an increasingly important source of profit for Big Oil, providing yet another reason to drill in the face of climate change.

...

<during Trumps may 2017 Saudi Arabia visit>
Meanwhile, in a mint-and-gold-colored room within the Saudi royal court, executives struck their own deals. Among them were Darren Woods, the CEO and chairman of ExxonMobil, and Yousef Al-Benyan, CEO of the Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC), one of the world’s largest producers of petrochemicals. With Trump, Saudi King Salman, and then–US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (a former Exxon CEO) looking on, Woods and Al-Benyan shook hands on a joint venture to build what will be the largest plastics facility of its kind, on Texas’s Gulf Coast.

...

Plotted on a map, the rectangle of land where Exxon plans to build is nearly as large as Portland and about twice the size of neighboring Gregory, a low-income, largely Hispanic community.

...

According to Exxon’s requested air permit, the facility will emit sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides, which can combine to form ozone smog; carcinogens, including benzene, formaldehyde, and butadiene; and other particulate matter. The health risks of these emissions include eye and throat irritation, respiratory problems, and headaches, as well as nose bleeds at low levels and, at high levels, more serious damage to vital organs and the central nervous system.

...

Now, the Texas Campaign for the Environment and the Sierra Club, working on behalf of Portland and Gregory residents, are contesting the air-quality permits that Exxon requested from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. Summerlin is not naive about the prospects of this effort: The commission is notoriously friendly to industry and, as far as Summerlin knows, has never denied a permit

...

All of these new facilities will require water; Exxon’s cracker alone will consume 20 to 25 million gallons per day, more than all the water currently used each day in San Patricio County’s water district. But the area is prone to drought. The Port of Corpus Christi has plans to build a seawater-desalination plant on Harbor Island near Port Aransas, which could lead to discharges of extremely salty water back into the bays that serve as nurseries for shrimp and fish. The development is also vulnerable to hurricanes. When Hurricane Harvey swept across Houston in 2017, many chemical plants shut down, releasing an estimated 1 million pounds of excess toxic emissions that drifted into neighboring communities.

https://www.thenation.com/article/plastics-pollution-crisis-fracking-petrochemicals/

Just some quotes from a long and good (and rather depressing) article.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 12, 2019, 02:10:34 PM »
We choose to go green...We choose to go green in the upcoming decades and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are necessary.

48
The rest / Re: Article links: drop them here!
« on: March 08, 2019, 02:15:07 PM »
DeSmog published a story this week from the Climate Investigations Center that touches on an interesting angle that’s emerging in the climate world as kids lead the way.

The article describes a conference last month at Brown University that featured a 90-minute panel built around a recent study in Nature Climate Change showing how decades of concerted misinformation played a key role in the current climate of climate denial. The event was convened by Brown’s Climate Development Lab. Brown students at the lab recently compiled and published a report giving the backstory on a dozen climate denial coalitions.

Some are long gone, like the Global Climate Coalition, others are still very much alive, like the Cooler Heads Coalition, which counts Trump advisors Myron Ebell and Steve Milloy among its members.

But even some of the ones that are no longer operational, like the Information Council on the Environment, which was funded by the Western Fuels Association and the Edison Electric Institute, still impact the current discourse.

For example, ICE’s Pat Michaels and Sherwood Idso have both gone on to a long and lucrative fossil-fuel-funded denial career. ICE’s initial PR campaign goal to “reposition global warming as theory (not fact)” is at the core of President Trump’s ongoing attempts to attack climate science with a “red team” of deniers drawn from these sorts of coalitions.

...

As pundits and deniers increasingly chide children for daring to speak out about the state of our planet, remember that these kids are speaking out against a misinformation machine that’s older than they are. For the students who put together this report, the fact that there’s a well-funded, widespread propaganda effort to protect polluters at the public expense isn’t some new revelation–it’s simply a fact of life.

Just like how no one born since February 1985 has ever experienced a month in which the global temperature has dipped below the 20th century average, this report shows that no one under 30 has lived in a world free from the fossil fuel industry’s misinformation campaign.

https://www.desmogblog.com/2019/03/07/college-students-calling-out-climate-denial-machine-older-they-are

49
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: March 02, 2019, 05:08:14 PM »
4 years of @ThwaitesGlacier ice tongue from @CopernicusEU #sentinel1 satellite imagery showing how this chaotic ice tongue has become a collection of icebergs glued together by sea ice.

Link >> https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/1101870380623511552

50
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: March 01, 2019, 01:19:48 PM »
The Shells of Wild Sea Butterflies Are Already Dissolving

This long-predicted outcome of ocean acidification experiments has started showing up in the wild.

For more than a decade, laboratory studies and models have warned of the vulnerability of pteropods—tiny sea snails also known as sea butterflies—to ocean acidification. Now those predictions have escaped the lab. From the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea to the Beaufort Sea, scientists are finding pteropods with dissolved shells. Nina Bednarsek, a biogeochemist with the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, recently presented some of these findings at the Alaska Marine Science Symposium.

...

The pteropod Bednarsek studies, Limacina helicina, is more than just the proverbial canary in the coal mine. One of only two species of pteropod to live in high-latitude waters, this particular species is abundant and critical to Arctic food webs, often dominating zooplankton communities and feeding everything from pink salmon to whales.

Pteropods can patch their damaged shells, but at a cost, Bednarsek explains. “The pteropods are a bit more physiologically compromised—not really feeling very well.” More acidic water triggers stress responses in the pteropods, as well as sucking energy to rebuild their shells. Stressed out pteropods accumulate free radicals, which decompose their lipids and fatty acids. And since these lipids and fatty acids are essential nutrients for juvenile fishes, corroded pteropods make a poor meal, compromising the health of other animals in the food chain.

...

https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/the-shells-of-wild-sea-butterflies-are-already-dissolving/

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